WEBVTT 0 00:00:00.170 --> 00:00:02.849 What you're watching right now should be totally impossible. 1 00:00:02.930 --> 00:00:05.429 It's Ukrainian armored vehicles advancing across 2 00:00:05.429 --> 00:00:08.159 wide open fields in Operation Vivaldi, 3 00:00:08.359 --> 00:00:10.850 even though military experts told us that drones 4 00:00:10.850 --> 00:00:13.520 had made large armored breakthroughs a death sentence. 5 00:00:13.770 --> 00:00:14.329 Despite this, 6 00:00:14.420 --> 00:00:18.370 Ukrainian troops somehow just pulled it off and pushed Russian forces back, 7 00:00:18.450 --> 00:00:21.290 rearranging their front line for them right as they were 8 00:00:21.290 --> 00:00:24.690 closing in on one of Ukraine's most important defensive lines. 9 00:00:25.010 --> 00:00:28.250 So how did Ukraine pull off an attack like this that was supposed to be? 10 00:00:28.343 --> 00:00:28.863 Obsolete, 11 00:00:28.943 --> 00:00:32.252 and why are similar breakthroughs suddenly happening in other wars? 12 00:00:32.502 --> 00:00:34.303 Today I'm gonna show you that I think the answer 13 00:00:34.303 --> 00:00:37.542 comes down to 3 new evolutions in maneuver warfare. 14 00:00:37.823 --> 00:00:40.702 As the Ukrainian armored convoy attacks deep 15 00:00:40.702 --> 00:00:43.652 into Russian lines in Operation Vivaldi, 16 00:00:44.022 --> 00:00:45.303 they're making a ton of noise. 17 00:00:45.382 --> 00:00:47.612 You see them firing their heavy machine guns, 18 00:00:47.823 --> 00:00:49.033 suppressive fire, 19 00:00:49.222 --> 00:00:53.402 while the infantry attack directly into the occupied villages nearby. 20 00:00:53.743 --> 00:00:56.542 How is this possible after the element of surprise. 21 00:00:56.675 --> 00:00:59.675 Maneuver warfare was supposed to be all but lost. 22 00:00:59.956 --> 00:01:00.296 Well, 23 00:01:00.486 --> 00:01:01.546 that may be the point. 24 00:01:01.675 --> 00:01:05.295 A key objective for phase one of Operation Vivaldi 25 00:01:05.515 --> 00:01:09.945 was misdirecting the enemy and neutralizing the Russian drone forces. 26 00:01:10.236 --> 00:01:12.776 So the Ukrainians knew that the Russian side 27 00:01:12.776 --> 00:01:15.236 had deployed their most elite drone unit, 28 00:01:15.396 --> 00:01:16.636 codename Rubicon, 29 00:01:16.865 --> 00:01:21.265 to the Lyman area as part of a push against the Donbass fortress belt. 30 00:01:21.596 --> 00:01:24.875 This is a strategically important region to the war. 31 00:01:25.289 --> 00:01:27.878 Much of the front line hinges on what happens here. 32 00:01:28.088 --> 00:01:30.448 A lot is at stake because the town of 33 00:01:30.448 --> 00:01:34.308 Lyman sits on a critical road guarding the northern approach 34 00:01:34.448 --> 00:01:38.289 toward two of the major cities in Ukraine's Donbass fortress belt. 35 00:01:38.528 --> 00:01:43.009 Russian forces had spent about two months grinding toward this area, 36 00:01:43.289 --> 00:01:45.908 trying to build the northern half of a pincer 37 00:01:46.208 --> 00:01:47.838 around those defenses. 38 00:01:48.079 --> 00:01:50.808 If that salient kept expanding here for Russia, 39 00:01:51.049 --> 00:01:53.128 Russia could pressure the last series. 40 00:01:53.391 --> 00:01:54.001 Of cities 41 00:01:54.582 --> 00:01:56.622 protecting Ukraine's front line in the south. 42 00:01:56.982 --> 00:02:01.622 Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi here needed to return maneuver warfare. 43 00:02:01.741 --> 00:02:05.382 It needed to find a way to return large scale mechanized 44 00:02:05.382 --> 00:02:08.681 warfare in a place where experts thought it was long dead. 45 00:02:09.021 --> 00:02:12.742 They were disrupting one of Russia's main approaches toward 46 00:02:12.742 --> 00:02:16.602 the remaining Ukrainian-held defensive network in the Donetsk, 47 00:02:16.742 --> 00:02:18.921 and buying those fortress cities, 48 00:02:19.121 --> 00:02:21.542 something that every defender needs in a war. 49 00:02:21.824 --> 00:02:22.324 Attrition, 50 00:02:22.744 --> 00:02:23.675 more time, 51 00:02:23.904 --> 00:02:27.714 and so Ukraine launched multiple aggressive hit and run style 52 00:02:27.714 --> 00:02:31.875 assaults like this one in order to convince the Russian forces 53 00:02:32.074 --> 00:02:34.854 that more Ukrainians were operating in the area 54 00:02:35.195 --> 00:02:36.634 than there actually was. 55 00:02:36.945 --> 00:02:42.494 Step one of the modern assault is to first blind them in the deception phase. 56 00:02:42.955 --> 00:02:46.304 These probing attacks drew out Russia's Rubicon drones, 57 00:02:46.475 --> 00:02:49.875 which in turn exposed their launch sites and resupply locations. 58 00:02:50.888 --> 00:02:53.248 Probing attacks are nothing new in military 59 00:02:53.248 --> 00:02:54.957 history when it comes to maneuver warfare, 60 00:02:55.287 --> 00:02:56.248 but in this one, 61 00:02:56.287 --> 00:02:58.677 in the way that the Ukrainian forces did it in 62 00:02:58.677 --> 00:03:02.638 Operation Vivaldi is a common new twist on it. 63 00:03:02.968 --> 00:03:07.697 They were probing to make Russia's entire drone kill chain reveal itself. 64 00:03:08.167 --> 00:03:10.328 Very considerate of Rubicon really to, 65 00:03:10.527 --> 00:03:11.108 to go ahead, 66 00:03:11.527 --> 00:03:14.027 because Ukrainian forces just needed a target list, 67 00:03:14.207 --> 00:03:14.587 and 68 00:03:14.768 --> 00:03:16.167 they were happy to populate it. 69 00:03:16.378 --> 00:03:18.207 Then the hunters became the hunted. 70 00:03:18.490 --> 00:03:22.020 Standard checkups frequently miss deeper insights into energy, 71 00:03:22.220 --> 00:03:22.421 sleep, 72 00:03:22.531 --> 00:03:23.210 hormones, 73 00:03:23.341 --> 00:03:24.930 and long-term vitality. 74 00:03:25.261 --> 00:03:27.291 Superpower offers a proactive, 75 00:03:27.300 --> 00:03:29.160 preventative approach to care. 76 00:03:29.261 --> 00:03:29.621 In fact, 77 00:03:29.731 --> 00:03:31.121 85% of members 78 00:03:31.261 --> 00:03:34.201 uncover early risk factors and 49% 79 00:03:34.371 --> 00:03:35.680 slow their speed of aging. 80 00:03:35.781 --> 00:03:38.171 All of your results and personalized insights 81 00:03:38.171 --> 00:03:41.341 are delivered asynchronously right within the app, 82 00:03:41.490 --> 00:03:43.690 making it simple to track progress over time. 83 00:03:43.811 --> 00:03:46.610 This ongoing guidance empowers members to make, 84 00:03:46.714 --> 00:03:50.264 Informed daily decisions about their health with confidence. 85 00:03:50.494 --> 00:03:54.944 It's time to move beyond basic physicals and take control of long-term health. 86 00:03:55.164 --> 00:03:56.813 Go beyond your annual checkup 87 00:03:56.914 --> 00:04:00.024 and finally understand what's really happening inside your body. 88 00:04:00.233 --> 00:04:01.074 For a limited time, 89 00:04:01.233 --> 00:04:05.113 our listeners here get $50 off to unlock their health membership. 90 00:04:05.354 --> 00:04:07.934 Head over to Superpower.com/Cppy 91 00:04:08.113 --> 00:04:10.414 for $50 off your Superpower membership. 92 00:04:10.593 --> 00:04:11.514 And after you sign up, 93 00:04:11.593 --> 00:04:13.533 they'll ask you how you heard about Superpower. 94 00:04:13.783 --> 00:04:14.923 Be sure to tell them that Cappy. 95 00:04:15.007 --> 00:04:15.927 The army sent you 96 00:04:16.166 --> 00:04:17.087 to support the shell. 97 00:04:17.367 --> 00:04:21.367 While the advancing Ukrainian troops and armored trucks were screened 98 00:04:21.367 --> 00:04:24.837 by their air defenses and heavy electronic warfare equipment, 99 00:04:25.136 --> 00:04:29.546 Ukraine's own attack drone teams struck at the Rubicon operators themselves, 100 00:04:30.046 --> 00:04:30.726 using new, 101 00:04:30.816 --> 00:04:33.207 more advanced drone models like the Hornet. 102 00:04:33.446 --> 00:04:34.846 They were able to accomplish this. 103 00:04:35.006 --> 00:04:39.486 With its 150 kilometer range and onboard AI target tracking software, 104 00:04:39.726 --> 00:04:43.147 the Ukrainian hunting party systematically dismantled. 105 00:04:43.369 --> 00:04:47.220 Enemy Russian Rubicon units over the course of several weeks. 106 00:04:47.500 --> 00:04:52.660 So the Russian Rubicon drone units had spent years making itself indispensable. 107 00:04:52.809 --> 00:04:54.079 Unfortunately for them, 108 00:04:54.380 --> 00:04:55.559 that also made them 109 00:04:55.660 --> 00:04:57.480 worth an enormous amount of effort 110 00:04:58.019 --> 00:04:58.459 to kill. 111 00:04:58.619 --> 00:05:00.579 And this is where modern warfare, 112 00:05:00.700 --> 00:05:02.420 maneuver warfare has evolved. 113 00:05:02.619 --> 00:05:04.880 The Ukrainian tanks can move faster 114 00:05:04.980 --> 00:05:07.059 than the electronic warfare teams 115 00:05:07.260 --> 00:05:09.200 and their air defense umbrella 116 00:05:09.339 --> 00:05:10.380 that is supporting them, 117 00:05:10.540 --> 00:05:11.579 and that's why Ukraine. 118 00:05:11.953 --> 00:05:13.453 Used close air support 119 00:05:13.752 --> 00:05:14.842 from the drones 120 00:05:15.032 --> 00:05:16.933 in order to quickly move up, 121 00:05:17.273 --> 00:05:20.812 move their protection umbrella up and to save them time 122 00:05:20.942 --> 00:05:23.852 to moving their slower defensive assets up with them. 123 00:05:24.273 --> 00:05:24.412 Because 124 00:05:24.513 --> 00:05:25.872 every kilometer forward, 125 00:05:25.953 --> 00:05:28.613 every mile forward stretches the network 126 00:05:28.752 --> 00:05:31.692 that made that breakthrough possible in the first place. 127 00:05:31.872 --> 00:05:34.203 But this would not have been enough, 128 00:05:34.233 --> 00:05:34.933 on its own, 129 00:05:35.393 --> 00:05:36.852 without step two 130 00:05:36.983 --> 00:05:38.023 of a modern assault, 131 00:05:38.102 --> 00:05:39.912 which is to isolate them. 132 00:05:40.350 --> 00:05:41.420 What does that mean? 133 00:05:41.790 --> 00:05:44.510 Russia was unable to keep supplies flowing 134 00:05:44.510 --> 00:05:47.029 to their drone teams and their infantry units 135 00:05:47.269 --> 00:05:48.420 that were getting hammered. 136 00:05:48.630 --> 00:05:53.149 Thanks to Ukraine's mid-range strike campaign going on at the same time. 137 00:05:53.459 --> 00:05:56.380 And so what we see here is Russia's most experienced 138 00:05:56.380 --> 00:05:59.529 drone operators were in danger of being totally wiped out. 139 00:05:59.899 --> 00:06:03.559 Russian high command was forced to pull what was left of Rubicon 140 00:06:03.750 --> 00:06:05.320 out of the Lyman salient, 141 00:06:05.500 --> 00:06:07.540 with their tails between their legs and their 142 00:06:07.540 --> 00:06:09.940 bums being dragged across the carpet floor. 143 00:06:10.119 --> 00:06:11.380 When I visited this part of the front. 144 00:06:11.630 --> 00:06:12.250 Line in Ukraine. 145 00:06:12.410 --> 00:06:15.239 I can tell you the geography here is just wide open fields, 146 00:06:15.410 --> 00:06:16.570 rural farmland, 147 00:06:16.809 --> 00:06:19.170 just 500 m from tree line to tree line. 148 00:06:19.410 --> 00:06:22.700 So making any kind of advance or hiding any kind of 149 00:06:22.799 --> 00:06:26.290 troop movements or build-up here is really an insane feat. 150 00:06:26.489 --> 00:06:29.390 It's rewriting the modern rules of maneuver warfare. 151 00:06:29.829 --> 00:06:30.269 Again, 152 00:06:30.510 --> 00:06:34.390 because Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps broke all the rules that we thought we knew, 153 00:06:34.630 --> 00:06:37.140 they managed to pull off not just a surprise attack, 154 00:06:37.350 --> 00:06:39.130 but an entire months-long 155 00:06:39.350 --> 00:06:40.660 secret counteroffensive. 156 00:06:40.950 --> 00:06:42.290 How were they able to do this? 157 00:06:42.500 --> 00:06:44.149 It was supposed to be impossible. 158 00:06:44.429 --> 00:06:47.070 Yet since the start of Operation Vivaldi back in May, 159 00:06:47.299 --> 00:06:50.790 the 3rd Army Corps has seized more than 140 square kilometers near 160 00:06:50.790 --> 00:06:55.779 linemen and driven Russian casualties up to a staggering 42,000 per month. 161 00:06:56.109 --> 00:06:59.070 New footage shows Ukraine's 66th mechanized brigade. 162 00:06:59.597 --> 00:07:03.278 Clearing and liberating towns during Operation Vivaldi, 163 00:07:03.518 --> 00:07:05.947 while troops pushed through the village itself here, 164 00:07:06.227 --> 00:07:09.398 soldiers from the first mechanized battalion and another motorized 165 00:07:09.398 --> 00:07:12.757 infantry battalion stormed a forest just in the north, 166 00:07:13.037 --> 00:07:15.388 clearing Russian positions and expanding the 167 00:07:15.388 --> 00:07:17.308 defensive buffer around the settlement. 168 00:07:17.597 --> 00:07:19.058 Once you punch through the line, 169 00:07:19.518 --> 00:07:22.097 somebody still has to go tree line by tree line 170 00:07:22.197 --> 00:07:25.078 and make sure the enemy is eliminated and report 171 00:07:25.078 --> 00:07:27.097 back to their captain that it's all clear, 172 00:07:27.437 --> 00:07:28.398 even liberation. 173 00:07:29.015 --> 00:07:29.626 come with 174 00:07:29.805 --> 00:07:30.726 a lot of paperwork. 175 00:07:30.925 --> 00:07:34.436 After Ukraine sprung the trap on Russian Rubicon forces, 176 00:07:34.726 --> 00:07:38.205 the 3rd Army Corps achieved local drone superiority, 177 00:07:38.436 --> 00:07:40.485 and they effectively blinded Russia. 178 00:07:40.686 --> 00:07:42.196 In modern maneuver warfare, 179 00:07:42.376 --> 00:07:45.365 military experts are now splitting air superiority, 180 00:07:45.406 --> 00:07:47.506 like with fighter jets and bombers up top, 181 00:07:47.805 --> 00:07:50.105 into littoral air superiority, 182 00:07:50.365 --> 00:07:53.825 that means controlling the air directly above your head, 183 00:07:53.966 --> 00:07:56.596 where drones are instead of fighter jets. 184 00:07:56.846 --> 00:07:57.805 Here we see assault. 185 00:07:58.014 --> 00:08:01.134 Squads bypassing the tiny dispersed Russian infantry 186 00:08:01.134 --> 00:08:04.194 positions to see settlements in their rear. 187 00:08:04.454 --> 00:08:06.053 They just roll past them saying, 188 00:08:06.213 --> 00:08:06.694 see you later, 189 00:08:06.794 --> 00:08:07.644 bye Felicia, 190 00:08:07.653 --> 00:08:08.204 essentially, 191 00:08:08.373 --> 00:08:12.074 and the Ukrainians have their own armored vehicles to support, 192 00:08:12.334 --> 00:08:14.553 while the Russians on the ground here do not. 193 00:08:14.894 --> 00:08:16.334 Once you blind the other guy, 194 00:08:16.523 --> 00:08:19.973 suddenly those same open ground that looked like a death 195 00:08:19.973 --> 00:08:23.653 trap highway is now a superhighway for your advance. 196 00:08:24.014 --> 00:08:27.174 Because what they did was they just went around those tiny. 197 00:08:27.381 --> 00:08:32.072 Russian pockets to just advance past them essentially and to cut them off. 198 00:08:32.611 --> 00:08:35.421 Because by phase two of Operation Vivaldi, 199 00:08:35.721 --> 00:08:37.822 Ukraine's mid-range strike campaign had 200 00:08:37.822 --> 00:08:40.572 effectively paralyzed Russian logistics networks. 201 00:08:40.861 --> 00:08:43.961 Russian units at the front line started going weeks without food, 202 00:08:44.131 --> 00:08:44.492 ammo, 203 00:08:44.531 --> 00:08:45.252 or fuel. 204 00:08:45.572 --> 00:08:48.921 That last part is important because drones and communication gear 205 00:08:49.302 --> 00:08:50.822 remaining in the linemen sector, 206 00:08:51.062 --> 00:08:52.132 they need generators, 207 00:08:52.142 --> 00:08:54.242 and they need the cities in that region 208 00:08:54.382 --> 00:08:56.541 to have power so that they can charge their batteries. 209 00:08:57.030 --> 00:08:59.299 And usually once you get close enough to the front, 210 00:08:59.549 --> 00:09:01.570 everywhere within 10 kilometers of it 211 00:09:01.789 --> 00:09:03.739 is basically has no power running there. 212 00:09:03.950 --> 00:09:07.859 As June rolled into August and fuel shortages crippled Russia's trucks, 213 00:09:08.150 --> 00:09:11.450 Russian infantry had to walk as far as 20 kilometers 214 00:09:11.630 --> 00:09:13.669 to reach the front line in some areas 215 00:09:13.669 --> 00:09:16.700 under constant Ukrainian drone attack the whole way, 216 00:09:16.950 --> 00:09:19.049 which would be a big fucking nope 217 00:09:19.309 --> 00:09:19.909 from me. 218 00:09:20.229 --> 00:09:20.530 I mean, 219 00:09:20.830 --> 00:09:22.500 they'd probably shoot me for saying nope, 220 00:09:22.590 --> 00:09:23.030 but that, 221 00:09:23.109 --> 00:09:24.190 that's still a nope for me, 222 00:09:24.270 --> 00:09:25.010 at that mission. 223 00:09:25.219 --> 00:09:25.549 Meanwhile, 224 00:09:25.590 --> 00:09:25.950 the Ukrainian. 225 00:09:26.817 --> 00:09:28.958 infantry could move about freely, 226 00:09:29.237 --> 00:09:32.518 attacking Russian-held settlements and positions almost at will. 227 00:09:32.797 --> 00:09:34.588 Each time they liberated a town, 228 00:09:34.797 --> 00:09:37.398 they encountered the same story time and time again. 229 00:09:37.507 --> 00:09:41.468 They reported seeing malnourished and poorly motivated Russian troops. 230 00:09:41.718 --> 00:09:42.757 The 3rd Army Corps, 231 00:09:42.898 --> 00:09:44.437 Ukraine's 3rd Army Corps, 232 00:09:44.547 --> 00:09:49.348 took more than 250 prisoners during just this phase of the operation, 233 00:09:49.638 --> 00:09:53.028 because it turns out the hold the line order loses a 234 00:09:53.028 --> 00:09:55.317 lot of motivational power when you're out of ammo and food. 235 00:09:55.755 --> 00:09:58.195 But with all of this action in one sector, 236 00:09:58.486 --> 00:10:01.955 how did Ukraine manage to keep the operation a secret this long? 237 00:10:02.125 --> 00:10:04.726 The way it worked was instead of publicizing 238 00:10:04.726 --> 00:10:07.716 each victory like the Ukrainian military often would, 239 00:10:07.995 --> 00:10:11.606 Ukraine coordinated across multiple defense media outlets 240 00:10:11.606 --> 00:10:14.866 and the pro-Ukrainian open source intelligence community 241 00:10:15.046 --> 00:10:16.435 to keep things on the down low, 242 00:10:16.486 --> 00:10:17.906 and this is part of the reason why 243 00:10:18.286 --> 00:10:19.986 you see media get 244 00:10:20.245 --> 00:10:22.325 taken over when there's martial law, 245 00:10:22.486 --> 00:10:24.505 so they can control this kind of, 246 00:10:25.190 --> 00:10:25.760 OPSAC, 247 00:10:26.150 --> 00:10:30.429 Russia's own military culture and command structure also unwittingly 248 00:10:30.429 --> 00:10:33.159 played a major part in its own misdirection. 249 00:10:33.429 --> 00:10:34.619 What do I mean by that? 250 00:10:34.950 --> 00:10:38.599 Because part of Moscow's strategy in this war is to keep up 251 00:10:38.599 --> 00:10:43.109 pressure on Ukraine and to make an eventual victory seem inevitable. 252 00:10:43.309 --> 00:10:47.830 Key to that strategy for Russia is nonstop headlines of Russian advances. 253 00:10:48.132 --> 00:10:50.843 Even if it's only a handful of kilometers a month. 254 00:10:51.122 --> 00:10:54.393 So Russian commanders are under immense pressure themselves 255 00:10:54.612 --> 00:10:57.393 to continually report territorial gains 256 00:10:57.533 --> 00:10:58.562 back to the Kremlin, 257 00:10:58.812 --> 00:11:00.473 to the point that many of them would rather 258 00:11:00.473 --> 00:11:04.052 lie instead of risking punishment or admitting losses. 259 00:11:04.362 --> 00:11:07.093 And so with their drone coverage near alignment, 260 00:11:07.432 --> 00:11:10.793 severely degraded by the loss of a Russian Rubicon. 261 00:11:11.166 --> 00:11:11.656 Units 262 00:11:11.875 --> 00:11:13.466 and their supply shortages, 263 00:11:13.716 --> 00:11:17.625 Russian generals' only source of information about Ukrainian movements 264 00:11:17.835 --> 00:11:20.705 came from their own unreliable reports. 265 00:11:20.995 --> 00:11:24.015 This created this kind of nightmare feedback loop, 266 00:11:24.156 --> 00:11:28.265 where the frontline commanders lie or stay quiet about losses, 267 00:11:28.466 --> 00:11:33.796 which means forces behind them don't get warned about impeding attacks on time. 268 00:11:34.059 --> 00:11:38.159 And up the chain of command it goes as entire units under constant attack 269 00:11:39.909 --> 00:11:42.080 don't get prioritized for the few remaining supplies there, 270 00:11:42.380 --> 00:11:45.250 because the higher-ups think everything is going peachy, 271 00:11:45.489 --> 00:11:49.119 which is a really great way to run an army if your main objective 272 00:11:49.330 --> 00:11:53.039 is to make sure everyone above you remains in a constant state of surprise. 273 00:11:53.340 --> 00:11:56.179 So the information war is just as important as ever. 274 00:11:56.340 --> 00:11:58.479 The front lines of information on the internet 275 00:11:58.659 --> 00:12:00.159 is cyberwarfare. 276 00:12:00.299 --> 00:12:02.570 It's an important element to advancing, 277 00:12:02.859 --> 00:12:03.859 to maneuver warfare. 278 00:12:04.283 --> 00:12:05.992 In this drone-infested world. 279 00:12:06.533 --> 00:12:09.913 Then phase 3 of Ukraine's operational offensive 280 00:12:09.913 --> 00:12:12.273 rolls along in August and September. 281 00:12:12.453 --> 00:12:15.963 This is when the Ukrainian side exploited their enemy's vulnerability. 282 00:12:16.252 --> 00:12:18.713 The 3rd Army Corps made a fake attack 283 00:12:18.932 --> 00:12:21.112 against Russia's southern perimeter in the region. 284 00:12:21.533 --> 00:12:25.763 Then they unleashed the main attack against the exposed northern flank. 285 00:12:25.932 --> 00:12:29.793 Instead of trying to keep such large troop movements entirely secret, 286 00:12:30.213 --> 00:12:33.692 the 3rd Army Corps stood up a task force whose entire mission. 287 00:12:33.806 --> 00:12:35.505 was to paint false information 288 00:12:35.926 --> 00:12:38.625 about the faint in the public information space. 289 00:12:38.846 --> 00:12:39.786 They were essentially 290 00:12:39.945 --> 00:12:41.356 hiding in plain sight. 291 00:12:41.565 --> 00:12:42.986 They were using the weakness 292 00:12:43.286 --> 00:12:44.825 of everything being visible 293 00:12:44.976 --> 00:12:45.825 as a strength. 294 00:12:46.116 --> 00:12:48.875 Third Army Corps commanding officer Andre 295 00:12:49.166 --> 00:12:52.685 Beletsky described how the plan worked even better than he'd hoped, 296 00:12:52.846 --> 00:12:53.075 saying, 297 00:12:53.125 --> 00:12:53.486 quote, 298 00:12:53.726 --> 00:12:57.406 the enemy was convinced the main axis of attack was to the south. 299 00:12:57.606 --> 00:13:01.885 This forced it to senselessly burn through its reserves and counterattacks, 300 00:13:01.926 --> 00:13:03.565 specifically along that axis. 301 00:13:03.979 --> 00:13:05.909 The Russians slept through the real strike, 302 00:13:06.150 --> 00:13:08.049 which was focused on capturing Nov. 303 00:13:08.619 --> 00:13:08.830 Sir, 304 00:13:08.909 --> 00:13:11.630 that is an absolutely outrageous amount of mileage 305 00:13:11.630 --> 00:13:13.469 to get out of one deception campaign, 306 00:13:13.500 --> 00:13:14.270 and I love it. 307 00:13:14.590 --> 00:13:18.030 Ukraine's signal intelligence staff reports that the Russian radio 308 00:13:18.030 --> 00:13:20.820 network was in absolute panic by this point. 309 00:13:21.070 --> 00:13:24.390 False reports and contradicting orders clogged the airwaves. 310 00:13:24.510 --> 00:13:25.650 Situational awareness 311 00:13:25.989 --> 00:13:27.309 had diminished to the point. 312 00:13:27.726 --> 00:13:30.627 Where squads had zero warning of an incoming attack 313 00:13:30.927 --> 00:13:32.956 until it was directly in their line of sight. 314 00:13:33.206 --> 00:13:37.526 That's when Ukraine rolled out another secret weapon in this offensive maneuver, 315 00:13:37.767 --> 00:13:38.726 their heavy armor. 316 00:13:38.956 --> 00:13:40.057 In the Donetsk sector, 317 00:13:40.156 --> 00:13:44.127 a Ukrainian special operations unit eliminated Russian soldiers and 318 00:13:44.127 --> 00:13:47.606 captured others in close combat and urban warfare. 319 00:13:47.887 --> 00:13:50.807 Soldiers questioned the Russian prisoners and analyzed. 320 00:13:50.903 --> 00:13:53.823 Data that they pulled from captured storage devices. 321 00:13:53.984 --> 00:13:56.283 Instead of sending another Ukrainian assault team 322 00:13:56.283 --> 00:13:58.333 in to find those additional Russians, 323 00:13:58.383 --> 00:14:01.494 the Ukrainians passed the coordinates up the chain of command, 324 00:14:01.734 --> 00:14:04.614 and they finished the job with a precision artillery strike. 325 00:14:04.903 --> 00:14:08.963 That is modern combined arms warfare in a microcosm right there, 326 00:14:09.143 --> 00:14:10.283 because you have the infantry 327 00:14:10.533 --> 00:14:11.723 finds that intelligence, 328 00:14:11.823 --> 00:14:14.004 and then the intelligence turns it into a target, 329 00:14:14.184 --> 00:14:15.161 and the Artillery 330 00:14:15.320 --> 00:14:19.031 just handles that customer complaint from a much safer distance. 331 00:14:19.320 --> 00:14:20.281 The larger lesson here, 332 00:14:20.320 --> 00:14:20.710 I think, 333 00:14:20.880 --> 00:14:22.510 is that under constant surveillance, 334 00:14:22.520 --> 00:14:25.520 a successful offensive just depends more and more 335 00:14:25.520 --> 00:14:28.190 on shortening the time between all those steps. 336 00:14:28.440 --> 00:14:31.060 But we've yet to see the finale of how 337 00:14:31.281 --> 00:14:34.231 that evolution of maneuver warfare works in the modern age, 338 00:14:34.241 --> 00:14:34.830 and for that, 339 00:14:34.921 --> 00:14:37.760 we need to look at Ukraine's code 9.2. 340 00:14:38.349 --> 00:14:41.979 Ukraine in this astounding footage from code 9.2, 341 00:14:42.210 --> 00:14:47.020 an experimental combat unit within the 475th separate assault regiment, 342 00:14:47.309 --> 00:14:49.900 we see the return of the infamous turtle tanks, 343 00:14:49.950 --> 00:14:52.030 but now by the Ukrainians using them. 344 00:14:52.409 --> 00:14:53.169 So ugly, 345 00:14:53.539 --> 00:14:54.609 can't help but love that. 346 00:14:54.820 --> 00:14:57.960 We still don't know exactly where this assault took place. 347 00:14:58.260 --> 00:15:00.169 We even reached out to the unit directly, 348 00:15:00.460 --> 00:15:02.659 but they were able to neither confirm nor 349 00:15:02.659 --> 00:15:05.119 deny that this was part of Operation Vivaldi. 350 00:15:05.299 --> 00:15:06.570 We suspect it was, 351 00:15:06.859 --> 00:15:07.520 but either way, 352 00:15:07.539 --> 00:15:10.260 it shows chef's kiss maneuver warfare, 353 00:15:10.580 --> 00:15:11.820 especially in the modern age. 354 00:15:11.940 --> 00:15:14.169 It's just the epitome of its evolution right now. 355 00:15:14.419 --> 00:15:18.390 The timing and tempo of the attack does line up with Operation Vivaldi. 356 00:15:18.619 --> 00:15:20.840 Here we see the reinforced tank barrel. 357 00:15:21.270 --> 00:15:24.591 Mines and shrug off multiple FPV attack drones 358 00:15:24.861 --> 00:15:27.210 on its way to attack a Russian stronghold. 359 00:15:27.390 --> 00:15:29.171 The Russian defensive philosophy here 360 00:15:29.611 --> 00:15:30.270 appears to be, 361 00:15:30.401 --> 00:15:30.741 uh, 362 00:15:30.911 --> 00:15:32.950 eventually the FPV operator has to get tired, 363 00:15:33.031 --> 00:15:33.281 right? 364 00:15:33.750 --> 00:15:35.411 The Ukrainian tanks are escorted, 365 00:15:35.760 --> 00:15:36.911 this is the big highlight here, 366 00:15:36.991 --> 00:15:39.301 by vampire heavy bomber drones, 367 00:15:39.580 --> 00:15:43.531 which help make up for the turrets being locked in a forward facing position. 368 00:15:43.741 --> 00:15:46.431 Gives a new definition to the meaning of close air support, 369 00:15:46.741 --> 00:15:47.111 just close, 370 00:15:47.190 --> 00:15:47.861 close air support, 371 00:15:48.031 --> 00:15:49.551 so littoral air support. 372 00:15:49.882 --> 00:15:51.002 I think here you guys. 373 00:15:51.202 --> 00:15:52.682 When I went on a mission in Ukraine with 374 00:15:52.682 --> 00:15:55.382 one of these heavy bomber vampire drone teams, 375 00:15:55.442 --> 00:15:57.421 it must be very difficult for them 376 00:15:57.601 --> 00:15:59.521 to run this kind of offensive operation. 377 00:15:59.642 --> 00:16:01.771 Usually they're used in defensive positions 378 00:16:02.081 --> 00:16:05.312 because it requires a clear line of communication with those tanks, 379 00:16:05.521 --> 00:16:08.021 and the team controlling the vampire bomber drones 380 00:16:08.122 --> 00:16:09.021 are in risk, 381 00:16:09.132 --> 00:16:12.192 because they need to be right there near the front line somewhere, 382 00:16:12.411 --> 00:16:14.661 hiding in a basement to have range 383 00:16:14.841 --> 00:16:16.072 to advance with them. 384 00:16:16.281 --> 00:16:18.242 The tanks still have plenty of firepower though. 385 00:16:18.612 --> 00:16:21.013 They're devastating the Russian enemy fortifications 386 00:16:21.013 --> 00:16:23.692 with their 125 millimeter main guns 387 00:16:23.853 --> 00:16:26.002 before scooting back toward friendly lines. 388 00:16:26.252 --> 00:16:27.372 Without proper warning, 389 00:16:27.473 --> 00:16:28.913 the Russians had no idea 390 00:16:29.372 --> 00:16:30.312 that they were coming. 391 00:16:30.572 --> 00:16:33.192 Only managed to throw a couple of small drones at them 392 00:16:33.492 --> 00:16:35.122 in the last kilometer or so, 393 00:16:35.533 --> 00:16:38.393 instead of intercepting them miles from the target area. 394 00:16:38.812 --> 00:16:42.252 So we see that successful offensive actions use the 395 00:16:42.252 --> 00:16:44.992 very thing that was preventing them in the past. 396 00:16:45.413 --> 00:16:46.932 They rely on drones to screen. 397 00:16:47.143 --> 00:16:47.934 The assault. 398 00:16:48.213 --> 00:16:50.323 It's a double-edged sword in that way. 399 00:16:50.544 --> 00:16:54.013 These drones act as a screening element for those tanks advancing, 400 00:16:54.304 --> 00:16:57.294 which is wild to see because it's right off of a, 401 00:16:57.463 --> 00:16:58.684 a new field manual 402 00:16:58.984 --> 00:17:00.833 that has barely had time to be printed, 403 00:17:00.984 --> 00:17:04.583 about how to integrate drones with mechanized maneuver warfare. 404 00:17:04.864 --> 00:17:08.203 Then the Ukrainians came up with another insane idea 405 00:17:08.384 --> 00:17:09.534 to break the stalemate, 406 00:17:09.673 --> 00:17:11.483 and this might be the craziest part 407 00:17:11.864 --> 00:17:13.144 of the entire episode. 408 00:17:13.423 --> 00:17:15.624 They rebuilt old Soviet-era BT. 409 00:17:15.755 --> 00:17:19.104 Our transports as remote-controlled demolition charges, 410 00:17:19.314 --> 00:17:20.614 which is pretty insane. 411 00:17:20.755 --> 00:17:22.775 They packed the vehicles full of explosives, 412 00:17:22.993 --> 00:17:26.094 and then they remotely drove these lightly armored vehicles 413 00:17:26.395 --> 00:17:26.775 that 414 00:17:26.993 --> 00:17:31.334 only had to mechanically survive just long enough to reach their target 415 00:17:31.515 --> 00:17:34.055 and the fortification before going kaboom. 416 00:17:34.354 --> 00:17:35.675 Soviet-style VBED. 417 00:17:35.864 --> 00:17:36.064 Again, 418 00:17:36.155 --> 00:17:37.755 none of this would have been possible even a 419 00:17:37.755 --> 00:17:41.334 few months ago when the Rubicon Russian drone units 420 00:17:41.555 --> 00:17:44.324 could destroy these converted BTRs and VBIT. 421 00:17:44.965 --> 00:17:46.406 Far outside the danger zone. 422 00:17:46.566 --> 00:17:46.906 So, 423 00:17:46.965 --> 00:17:49.855 it's all about setting the conditions and shaping 424 00:17:49.855 --> 00:17:52.355 operations for these kind of tactics to work. 425 00:17:52.526 --> 00:17:55.946 So what did Ukrainian forces do in phase three? 426 00:17:56.235 --> 00:17:59.076 It's when the Ukrainian troops really pulled out 427 00:17:59.076 --> 00:18:02.906 all the stops with yet another innovative weapons system 428 00:18:03.326 --> 00:18:05.245 that you have to see to believe. 429 00:18:05.515 --> 00:18:07.076 Your eyes don't deceive you. 430 00:18:07.166 --> 00:18:11.196 This is the world's first combat use of robot paratroopers, 431 00:18:11.326 --> 00:18:12.936 a special drone warfare unit. 432 00:18:13.136 --> 00:18:16.256 Named NC-13 spent over a year designing 433 00:18:16.256 --> 00:18:19.437 these Griffin UGVs or unmanned ground vehicles 434 00:18:19.656 --> 00:18:23.276 that are light enough to be carried by heavy vampire bomber drones, 435 00:18:23.536 --> 00:18:27.967 and then they're flown in and inserted up to 10 kilometers behind enemy lines, 436 00:18:28.256 --> 00:18:30.016 and the Griffins can be kitted out 437 00:18:30.016 --> 00:18:33.156 for a variety of missions from kamikaze explosives 438 00:18:33.656 --> 00:18:37.707 to heavy weapons platforms and even minesweepers to clear the path. 439 00:18:38.097 --> 00:18:40.477 The Swiss Army knife of Skynet. 440 00:18:40.817 --> 00:18:43.468 The Russians had no The idea that these killer Terminator 441 00:18:43.468 --> 00:18:46.848 robots were creeping around behind them in the back line. 442 00:18:47.147 --> 00:18:49.637 Many unsuspecting Russian soldiers even walked 443 00:18:49.637 --> 00:18:52.748 up to investigate the quirky looking robots 444 00:18:52.748 --> 00:18:57.108 and made the operator's job much easier cause then it gets kaboomed. 445 00:18:57.427 --> 00:19:00.147 The airdropped UGVs proved so effective that 446 00:19:00.147 --> 00:19:02.897 they made Russia's coordination problem even worse. 447 00:19:03.947 --> 00:19:07.848 Secure positions suddenly started taking machine gun fire from the rear. 448 00:19:07.958 --> 00:19:10.348 Infantry seemed to strike out of no. 449 00:19:10.588 --> 00:19:12.739 Minefields or fortified bunkers 450 00:19:13.038 --> 00:19:14.759 evaporating without warning. 451 00:19:14.999 --> 00:19:17.989 According to Unit NC-13 and its commander, 452 00:19:18.279 --> 00:19:21.479 one of their most successful strikes was when they detonated a 453 00:19:21.479 --> 00:19:24.538 griffin against a lone Russian soldier on a major road, 454 00:19:24.639 --> 00:19:27.428 which caused so much panic and confusion among the Russian 455 00:19:27.428 --> 00:19:31.098 enemy commanders that they called off a full mechanized assault 456 00:19:31.359 --> 00:19:33.979 scheduled to use that same road later in the day. 457 00:19:34.159 --> 00:19:36.899 Imagine canceling an entire mechanized assault 458 00:19:37.239 --> 00:19:39.078 because one angry robot showed up. 459 00:19:39.250 --> 00:19:39.750 On the road. 460 00:19:40.130 --> 00:19:40.630 That's a 461 00:19:40.890 --> 00:19:42.400 crazy return on investment. 462 00:19:42.650 --> 00:19:43.530 What is the bigger, 463 00:19:43.680 --> 00:19:46.479 broader implication for Operation Vivaldi? 464 00:19:46.689 --> 00:19:47.849 Blind their sensors, 465 00:19:48.000 --> 00:19:48.869 isolate them, 466 00:19:49.170 --> 00:19:51.400 and then move before they can reinforce, 467 00:19:51.689 --> 00:19:52.910 all while integrating 468 00:19:53.329 --> 00:19:54.640 new weapon systems. 469 00:19:54.969 --> 00:19:57.569 Writing for the Modern War Institute at West Point, 470 00:19:57.849 --> 00:19:58.650 Robert G. 471 00:19:58.729 --> 00:20:01.589 Rose identifies how the dispersed battlefield 472 00:20:02.010 --> 00:20:04.089 that reduces an army's vulnerability to 473 00:20:04.089 --> 00:20:07.189 drones actually makes forces more susceptible 474 00:20:07.520 --> 00:20:09.421 to a Vivaldi style breakthrough, 475 00:20:09.620 --> 00:20:09.860 saying, 476 00:20:09.880 --> 00:20:10.220 quote, 477 00:20:10.461 --> 00:20:14.061 Russian forces are no longer ensconced behind the Sorovinkin line, 478 00:20:14.140 --> 00:20:15.531 the famous defensive line, 479 00:20:15.821 --> 00:20:19.181 with its dense minefields and multiple lines of fortifications, 480 00:20:19.500 --> 00:20:22.500 rather they're dispersed in the broad contested zone, 481 00:20:22.740 --> 00:20:24.281 both hiding from drones 482 00:20:24.500 --> 00:20:26.461 and relying on them for early warning. 483 00:20:26.651 --> 00:20:27.681 Without drone coverage, 484 00:20:28.140 --> 00:20:30.961 many of Russia's thinly defended positions might 485 00:20:30.961 --> 00:20:33.850 be bypassed by infiltrating forces entirely. 486 00:20:34.020 --> 00:20:34.220 OK, 487 00:20:34.301 --> 00:20:36.500 so they used Russia's own strategy. 488 00:20:36.822 --> 00:20:40.171 Against them by realizing the whole house of cards 489 00:20:40.391 --> 00:20:42.072 was resting on drones. 490 00:20:42.462 --> 00:20:45.911 Robert Rose then points out something that frequently gets missed 491 00:20:45.911 --> 00:20:50.511 in all this discussion about kilometers traded and casualties inflicted. 492 00:20:50.791 --> 00:20:54.621 Ukrainian soldiers didn't suddenly get better at storming trenches, 493 00:20:54.832 --> 00:20:57.771 it's that the armed forces of Ukraine as an organization 494 00:20:57.991 --> 00:21:00.991 got better at attacking the systems around those trenches, 495 00:21:01.232 --> 00:21:02.942 like their drone and supply hubs. 496 00:21:03.192 --> 00:21:04.832 How did they organize for this? 497 00:21:05.021 --> 00:21:06.883 It's It's important to take note of the fact that 498 00:21:06.883 --> 00:21:10.753 the Ukrainian side organized Operation Vivaldi at the core level, 499 00:21:11.003 --> 00:21:13.162 which means they brought together multiple large 500 00:21:13.162 --> 00:21:16.542 units to attack these deep assets systematically 501 00:21:16.963 --> 00:21:19.353 instead of as isolated single strikes. 502 00:21:19.642 --> 00:21:23.662 What it means is it takes a much larger degree of command and control 503 00:21:23.883 --> 00:21:27.302 than just assigning a single regiment or brigade to a target, 504 00:21:27.642 --> 00:21:29.593 because they can continue their momentum. 505 00:21:29.802 --> 00:21:33.883 Ukraine was able to exploit those mistakes because it started thinking bigger. 506 00:21:34.053 --> 00:21:37.754 Ukraine started planning Operation Vivaldi over a year in advance, 507 00:21:38.014 --> 00:21:41.154 bringing together multiple units with particular specialties 508 00:21:41.364 --> 00:21:43.443 and training them to work closely together. 509 00:21:43.774 --> 00:21:46.693 That's easier said than done at the scale of an army corps though, 510 00:21:46.734 --> 00:21:50.803 you're talking about roughly 400,000 to 80,000 men for the 3rd Army Corps. 511 00:21:50.973 --> 00:21:56.093 Especially when those same units are already engaged in open warfare almost daily. 512 00:21:56.293 --> 00:21:56.874 For Ukraine, 513 00:21:57.173 --> 00:21:59.764 they are now trying to consolidate their gains, 514 00:21:59.813 --> 00:22:00.553 and first, 515 00:22:00.813 --> 00:22:02.573 you have to think about culmination point. 516 00:22:02.939 --> 00:22:03.900 But in the drone age, 517 00:22:04.000 --> 00:22:07.239 you can hit that culmination point of your advance far faster 518 00:22:07.500 --> 00:22:09.959 because now you can outrun your drone batteries. 519 00:22:10.300 --> 00:22:10.579 Second, 520 00:22:10.689 --> 00:22:12.540 you gotta think about securing the corridor, 521 00:22:12.739 --> 00:22:15.550 which means now securing more than the road behind you. 522 00:22:15.849 --> 00:22:16.260 Third, 523 00:22:16.420 --> 00:22:17.439 the support bubble. 524 00:22:17.540 --> 00:22:19.160 It has to leapfrog forward 525 00:22:19.660 --> 00:22:21.760 almost as fast as the assault force. 526 00:22:21.979 --> 00:22:24.969 And that creates a new problem for offensive warfare. 527 00:22:25.219 --> 00:22:27.810 The faster your armor and infantry move, 528 00:22:28.099 --> 00:22:31.099 the more likely it is to outrun the invisible network. 529 00:22:31.215 --> 00:22:33.306 That made that breakthrough possible. 530 00:22:33.576 --> 00:22:34.635 This footage gives us 531 00:22:34.806 --> 00:22:39.255 a ground level look at what exploiting one of those breakthroughs actually 532 00:22:39.255 --> 00:22:42.456 means when it comes to the Ukrainian infantryman and his rifle. 533 00:22:42.696 --> 00:22:45.276 The Ukrainian assault troops are clearing buildings 534 00:22:45.456 --> 00:22:47.595 by buildings in this urban warfare 535 00:22:47.776 --> 00:22:52.115 after the larger Operation Vivaldi had already pushed through in the area. 536 00:22:52.375 --> 00:22:54.926 So they start moving through ruined houses and shelters, 537 00:22:55.296 --> 00:22:57.076 calling out to see if anyone's inside. 538 00:22:57.495 --> 00:22:58.576 They're just doing the, 539 00:22:58.735 --> 00:22:58.895 you know, 540 00:22:58.975 --> 00:22:59.456 the minutia. 541 00:22:59.932 --> 00:23:01.791 Of consolidating gains. 542 00:23:02.212 --> 00:23:05.881 The assault team is basically a cleanup team for the Ukrainians, 543 00:23:05.891 --> 00:23:08.921 going through and mopping up any last holdouts, 544 00:23:09.011 --> 00:23:11.271 stragglers of Russian forces left behind 545 00:23:11.651 --> 00:23:13.712 as they leapfrog their positions. 546 00:23:13.972 --> 00:23:15.932 Then they reached the Russian trench line here. 547 00:23:16.092 --> 00:23:18.771 Two Russian soldiers immediately plead and surrender. 548 00:23:19.052 --> 00:23:22.141 One of them later asked the Ukrainians to take him along with them. 549 00:23:22.411 --> 00:23:24.972 Then the Ukrainians encounter another group and order 550 00:23:24.972 --> 00:23:26.612 them to raise their hands and come out. 551 00:23:26.812 --> 00:23:27.812 According to the Third Corps. 552 00:23:28.047 --> 00:23:30.468 3 Russians are given the opportunity to surrender. 553 00:23:30.758 --> 00:23:31.307 Instead, 554 00:23:31.628 --> 00:23:33.838 1 takes out a grenade suddenly, 555 00:23:34.088 --> 00:23:34.608 detonates, 556 00:23:34.647 --> 00:23:36.637 and the firefight ends the encounter. 557 00:23:36.848 --> 00:23:38.748 This is that unglamorous 558 00:23:38.968 --> 00:23:41.328 final stage of maneuver warfare. 559 00:23:41.517 --> 00:23:43.748 The breakthrough can happen kilometers away, 560 00:23:44.047 --> 00:23:44.748 but eventually, 561 00:23:44.988 --> 00:23:47.588 somebody still has to walk into every single trench, 562 00:23:47.767 --> 00:23:49.078 every single basement, 563 00:23:49.248 --> 00:23:50.187 every ruined house, 564 00:23:50.368 --> 00:23:51.108 and make sure 565 00:23:51.368 --> 00:23:53.208 that the enemy is actually gone. 566 00:23:53.608 --> 00:23:56.167 Drones have yet to take that infantryman. 567 00:23:56.524 --> 00:23:56.764 Job. 568 00:23:56.923 --> 00:23:57.543 But then, 569 00:23:57.604 --> 00:24:00.203 I noticed something strange is now happening 570 00:24:00.203 --> 00:24:02.004 across battlefields in the Middle East, 571 00:24:02.043 --> 00:24:02.644 in Yemen, 572 00:24:02.683 --> 00:24:04.104 to Thailand and Asia, 573 00:24:04.494 --> 00:24:06.994 to Sudan to Eastern Europe and Ukraine. 574 00:24:07.364 --> 00:24:10.163 Mechanized armies are once again advancing in 575 00:24:10.163 --> 00:24:12.114 all these locations across the globe, 576 00:24:12.323 --> 00:24:15.163 despite the sky being lousy with attack drones. 577 00:24:15.404 --> 00:24:17.463 The funeral for maneuver warfare 578 00:24:17.723 --> 00:24:18.624 might have been 579 00:24:18.803 --> 00:24:19.984 greatly exaggerated. 580 00:24:20.163 --> 00:24:20.764 In Myanmar, 581 00:24:20.874 --> 00:24:24.524 sweeping advances still happen despite the sky being lousy with drones. 582 00:24:25.400 --> 00:24:28.469 Step 3 is to move before they recover. 583 00:24:28.750 --> 00:24:30.300 Modern offensive pushes 584 00:24:30.479 --> 00:24:33.660 are a race to create a temporary bubble of advantage, 585 00:24:34.040 --> 00:24:36.540 exploit it faster than the enemy can recover, 586 00:24:36.800 --> 00:24:39.459 and this has always been a pillar of offensive action, 587 00:24:39.670 --> 00:24:42.260 but today it's evolved one step further, 588 00:24:42.439 --> 00:24:45.560 where you need to also drag your own sensors 589 00:24:45.560 --> 00:24:49.119 and electronic warfare equipment and drone supply chain. 590 00:24:49.319 --> 00:24:50.900 You need to drag that all forward 591 00:24:51.479 --> 00:24:52.880 before the bubble collapses. 592 00:24:53.225 --> 00:24:54.946 And that's what we're seeing in Myanmar. 593 00:24:55.235 --> 00:24:59.416 Part of the reason that these assaults and maneuver warfare can happen today again 594 00:24:59.595 --> 00:25:00.095 is 595 00:25:00.276 --> 00:25:00.975 ironically, 596 00:25:01.036 --> 00:25:01.666 drones. 597 00:25:01.995 --> 00:25:04.865 Watch the sky in this footage from July 2024, 598 00:25:05.036 --> 00:25:06.885 where you can count at least four drones 599 00:25:06.885 --> 00:25:10.536 dropping bombs on the Myanmar Army's Northeastern Command. 600 00:25:10.916 --> 00:25:14.786 The swarm coordinates to synchronize dropping several bombs at the same time, 601 00:25:15.076 --> 00:25:17.995 like in a ghost Recon Wildlands Ubisoft game. 602 00:25:18.196 --> 00:25:20.706 That's how you blind them before isolating them. 603 00:25:20.956 --> 00:25:21.276 Myanmar. 604 00:25:21.472 --> 00:25:23.871 rebels essentially built themselves a poor man's 605 00:25:23.871 --> 00:25:26.222 air force using commercial drone technology, 606 00:25:26.432 --> 00:25:30.192 and we saw that during their sweeping Operation 1027. 607 00:25:30.511 --> 00:25:34.401 Resistance forces swarmed junta positions with repeated bomb 608 00:25:34.401 --> 00:25:37.702 drops before those ground formations moved in. 609 00:25:37.991 --> 00:25:42.261 There were more than 2000 resistance drone strikes across 600 locations, 610 00:25:42.472 --> 00:25:45.291 becoming a surprisingly respectable air campaign 611 00:25:45.291 --> 00:25:47.812 for an organization whose procurement department 612 00:25:47.972 --> 00:25:49.651 occasionally just consists of. 613 00:25:49.748 --> 00:25:52.517 Somebody with a soldering iron in an AliExpress account. 614 00:25:52.907 --> 00:25:55.527 At this point is where the mechanized ground movement 615 00:25:55.708 --> 00:25:56.177 came in, 616 00:25:56.387 --> 00:25:58.738 moved in before the enemy could recover. 617 00:25:59.027 --> 00:26:02.328 Operation 1027 opened as this coordinated attack, 618 00:26:02.537 --> 00:26:03.508 and within two weeks, 619 00:26:03.588 --> 00:26:05.228 the Brotherhood Alliance had taken more than 620 00:26:05.228 --> 00:26:07.858 100 military positions in several towns. 621 00:26:08.108 --> 00:26:12.647 The ISS described the campaign as a rapid collapse of regime positions 622 00:26:12.767 --> 00:26:16.978 after rebels cut major highways and they isolated bases from one another. 623 00:26:17.307 --> 00:26:17.947 By June 20. 624 00:26:18.083 --> 00:26:18.654 In 2024, 625 00:26:18.744 --> 00:26:23.593 phase two kicked off when the rebel forces pushed along major roads toward Laishu. 626 00:26:24.144 --> 00:26:24.663 By August, 627 00:26:24.703 --> 00:26:28.534 they'd captured the Northeastern Regional Military Command headquarters. 628 00:26:28.573 --> 00:26:32.703 It was the first of Myanmar's regional military commands to fall during the war. 629 00:26:32.943 --> 00:26:34.663 So mechanized maneuver warfare, 630 00:26:34.864 --> 00:26:35.553 as we'll see, 631 00:26:35.624 --> 00:26:36.284 is often 632 00:26:36.663 --> 00:26:39.524 fighters moving in pickup trucks and some APCs, 633 00:26:39.543 --> 00:26:43.134 and then the drones help suppress isolated garrisons, 634 00:26:43.144 --> 00:26:44.663 while those mobile forces 635 00:26:44.823 --> 00:26:46.303 bypass positions. 636 00:26:46.459 --> 00:26:48.420 And severed the roads connecting them, 637 00:26:48.459 --> 00:26:50.479 and the Arkan army in Myanmar 638 00:26:50.650 --> 00:26:54.239 spent late 2024 rolling through in a sweeping advance 639 00:26:54.420 --> 00:26:58.060 by seizing the enemy junta's Western Command headquarters after 640 00:26:58.060 --> 00:27:00.579 taking surrounding positions and cutting the command off. 641 00:27:00.819 --> 00:27:04.800 So the junta reacted by trying to deploy 20 main battle tanks, 642 00:27:04.810 --> 00:27:06.849 plus additional armored fighting vehicles, 643 00:27:07.130 --> 00:27:11.359 which was the military's first major deployment of armor in the entire civil war. 644 00:27:11.619 --> 00:27:12.020 Meanwhile, 645 00:27:12.099 --> 00:27:14.660 navy warships offshore provided fire. 646 00:27:14.816 --> 00:27:17.526 Support while aircraft struck enemy positions. 647 00:27:17.895 --> 00:27:19.086 Drones we're learning, 648 00:27:19.255 --> 00:27:19.595 are 649 00:27:19.735 --> 00:27:22.995 awesome for creating openings for ground troops to move through. 650 00:27:23.176 --> 00:27:26.576 It's the yin and yang of offensive action in the modern age. 651 00:27:26.816 --> 00:27:30.156 So Myanmar shows us if you have enough mobility to arrive 652 00:27:30.416 --> 00:27:32.526 somewhere that the enemy didn't expect you, 653 00:27:32.845 --> 00:27:34.395 you can defeat them before 654 00:27:34.696 --> 00:27:36.725 he can rebuild his defenses. 655 00:27:37.135 --> 00:27:40.215 Sometimes it means arriving in 3 pickup trucks and 14 engineers, 656 00:27:40.336 --> 00:27:41.715 students sitting in the back with 657 00:27:41.855 --> 00:27:43.015 quadcopters. 658 00:27:43.400 --> 00:27:45.439 But Sudan raises a different question. 659 00:27:45.680 --> 00:27:47.410 Once you've punched through the enemy's line, 660 00:27:47.650 --> 00:27:51.640 how do you keep the breakthrough from dying on the road network behind you? 661 00:27:51.770 --> 00:27:54.810 I can't think of another time in recent years where the front lines of 662 00:27:54.810 --> 00:27:58.359 so many different wars have yo yoed so much at the same time, 663 00:27:58.489 --> 00:28:00.829 and I think it comes down to armies learning 664 00:28:01.010 --> 00:28:02.109 how to advance 665 00:28:02.209 --> 00:28:03.550 with the very drones 666 00:28:03.689 --> 00:28:05.150 that have been keeping them in 667 00:28:05.329 --> 00:28:06.869 hiding in basements for years. 668 00:28:07.079 --> 00:28:07.260 Here, 669 00:28:07.290 --> 00:28:11.469 the Sudanese armed forces punch through the RSF positions around the city. 670 00:28:11.708 --> 00:28:12.588 In 2025, 671 00:28:12.668 --> 00:28:15.178 the frontlines of the map just suddenly started changing. 672 00:28:15.389 --> 00:28:19.088 We've geolocated and verified three separate videos from this advance, 673 00:28:19.348 --> 00:28:21.409 and there's armor in the middle of this 674 00:28:21.588 --> 00:28:23.588 because it looks like Sudan remains one of the 675 00:28:23.588 --> 00:28:26.848 few places where a tank and a Toyota technical 676 00:28:27.109 --> 00:28:27.328 can 677 00:28:27.468 --> 00:28:28.948 face off against each other in combat. 678 00:28:29.068 --> 00:28:34.098 So the RSF commander Mohammad Hamdan Dagallo openly blamed the 679 00:28:34.098 --> 00:28:37.659 defeat in part on Sudanese use of Iranian drones. 680 00:28:37.909 --> 00:28:42.368 So the SAF drone footage from the Preceding months show strikes against 681 00:28:42.368 --> 00:28:46.427 RSF troops and vehicles across the region and around the capital. 682 00:28:46.738 --> 00:28:49.468 Then you're seeing Chinese CH-95 drones 683 00:28:49.608 --> 00:28:53.088 identified operating from an RSF base in Darfur. 684 00:28:53.447 --> 00:28:57.508 So these weapons have caused a balance of power shift around the world 685 00:28:57.687 --> 00:29:02.958 that's rewriting borders right now and allowing for massive offensive pushes. 686 00:29:03.287 --> 00:29:05.917 Here we see the M23 fighters and Rwandan 687 00:29:05.917 --> 00:29:08.407 forces are advancing into one of the biggest. 688 00:29:08.577 --> 00:29:09.886 Cities in eastern Congo, 689 00:29:10.237 --> 00:29:11.616 while Congolese troops, 690 00:29:11.866 --> 00:29:12.937 foreign contractors, 691 00:29:12.947 --> 00:29:15.227 and regional peacekeepers try to stop them. 692 00:29:15.457 --> 00:29:16.146 At first glance, 693 00:29:16.227 --> 00:29:16.796 this looks like 694 00:29:17.266 --> 00:29:19.107 another African rebel offensive. 695 00:29:19.376 --> 00:29:22.427 Then you start looking closer and you see that UN investigators 696 00:29:22.427 --> 00:29:27.046 documented all this sophisticated types of GPS jamming and spoofing equipment 697 00:29:27.266 --> 00:29:29.187 operating around the front lines. 698 00:29:29.427 --> 00:29:31.126 They were pushing up with them 699 00:29:31.327 --> 00:29:33.896 this advanced sophisticated technology. 700 00:29:34.146 --> 00:29:36.687 The interference affected Congolese military aircraft. 701 00:29:37.005 --> 00:29:38.076 surveillance drones, 702 00:29:38.365 --> 00:29:39.046 UN aircraft, 703 00:29:39.086 --> 00:29:41.316 and even military resupply flights. 704 00:29:41.566 --> 00:29:45.706 The jamming was mobile and some systems were transported on regular trucks. 705 00:29:45.885 --> 00:29:50.326 So when you see your rebel forces start using next-generation jamming technology, 706 00:29:50.656 --> 00:29:53.666 calling them by the term of ragtag militia starts 707 00:29:54.005 --> 00:29:55.946 requiring a couple of footnotes in there. 708 00:29:56.206 --> 00:29:59.365 Then the ground offensive accelerated and on January 23rd, 709 00:29:59.526 --> 00:30:04.026 the M23 and Rwandan forces attacked and 4 days later they entered Goma 710 00:30:04.166 --> 00:30:05.125 from multiple directions. 711 00:30:05.224 --> 00:30:07.385 Less than 3 weeks after Goma fell, 712 00:30:07.655 --> 00:30:10.824 the M23 rebels pushed south towards Bakuva. 713 00:30:11.214 --> 00:30:13.765 They captured an airport there and they entered the city, 714 00:30:14.064 --> 00:30:15.564 while Congolese forces 715 00:30:15.905 --> 00:30:16.494 retreated, 716 00:30:16.625 --> 00:30:19.334 withdrew with surprisingly little resistance. 717 00:30:19.584 --> 00:30:23.535 Similar advances are happening on the same continent in Ethiopia right now. 718 00:30:23.755 --> 00:30:25.545 In late September in Ethiopia, 719 00:30:25.854 --> 00:30:28.084 another major offensive broke through, 720 00:30:28.265 --> 00:30:30.885 where fighting between Ethiopia's federal government 721 00:30:30.885 --> 00:30:33.464 and Tigrayan forces exploded across. 722 00:30:33.764 --> 00:30:34.884 Northern Ethiopia. 723 00:30:34.963 --> 00:30:37.524 So the Tigrayan forces seized airports while 724 00:30:37.524 --> 00:30:39.803 pushing into neighboring towns like Amera. 725 00:30:40.284 --> 00:30:41.423 Before the fighting started, 726 00:30:41.803 --> 00:30:44.053 they reportedly indicated the Tigrayan forces 727 00:30:44.053 --> 00:30:45.923 had moved tanks and artillery south. 728 00:30:46.134 --> 00:30:47.563 But here is where we need to talk 729 00:30:47.563 --> 00:30:50.323 about another important concept to maneuver warfare, 730 00:30:50.573 --> 00:30:51.803 which is consolidation, 731 00:30:51.923 --> 00:30:53.313 consolidating your gains. 732 00:30:53.524 --> 00:30:54.963 We've seen time and time again, 733 00:30:55.083 --> 00:30:58.183 advances get uno reversed when they extend too far, 734 00:30:58.524 --> 00:31:00.284 because then their momentum reversed, 735 00:31:00.323 --> 00:31:01.843 and the pro-government troops. 736 00:31:02.262 --> 00:31:03.483 Retook Almada, 737 00:31:03.782 --> 00:31:04.863 by early October, 738 00:31:05.022 --> 00:31:06.343 they were continuing forward. 739 00:31:06.572 --> 00:31:07.772 In just a week, 740 00:31:07.863 --> 00:31:09.172 a dramatic reversal, 741 00:31:09.383 --> 00:31:11.642 which is something that we've seen frequently recently, 742 00:31:11.902 --> 00:31:13.333 so why the reversals? 743 00:31:13.503 --> 00:31:16.802 It has to do with using drones to gain an advantage, 744 00:31:17.172 --> 00:31:18.603 and then the opposing force, 745 00:31:18.822 --> 00:31:20.162 using blunt power. 746 00:31:20.373 --> 00:31:25.483 And a great example of consolidation at work is the recent war in Yemen 747 00:31:25.743 --> 00:31:30.223 that showed maneuver warfare is alive and that fast reversals can happen in them. 748 00:31:30.482 --> 00:31:33.082 You're seeing Houthi fighters moving along the Red 749 00:31:33.082 --> 00:31:35.312 Sea coast in pickups and armored vehicles, 750 00:31:35.322 --> 00:31:37.001 while drones cover their assault. 751 00:31:37.202 --> 00:31:40.881 Nobody told the Toyota Helix that armored warfare was obsolete. 752 00:31:41.082 --> 00:31:44.911 It's actually close to the US Army's new fighting doctrine with their ISVs, 753 00:31:45.041 --> 00:31:47.041 but they managed to get together about 100,000 754 00:31:47.041 --> 00:31:49.401 Houthi fighters to pull off this surprise attack. 755 00:31:49.562 --> 00:31:50.072 In September, 756 00:31:50.121 --> 00:31:52.302 the Houthis seized the historic port city 757 00:31:52.722 --> 00:31:54.322 north of Bab al-Mab Strait, 758 00:31:54.442 --> 00:31:57.781 and within days they'd retaken the remainder of the Red Sea coastline 759 00:31:57.921 --> 00:31:58.641 and islands around. 760 00:31:58.740 --> 00:31:59.291 The strait, 761 00:31:59.500 --> 00:32:01.961 which would have allowed them to threaten more shipping here. 762 00:32:02.181 --> 00:32:06.201 It was this lightning advance that brought guns onto the shores 763 00:32:06.370 --> 00:32:08.890 of this 19 kilometer wide choke point here. 764 00:32:09.100 --> 00:32:10.480 This may have been the least 765 00:32:10.581 --> 00:32:14.090 OSHA compliant combined arms formation in history if you watch it. 766 00:32:14.340 --> 00:32:15.461 When the offensive hit though, 767 00:32:15.581 --> 00:32:17.740 the Saudi-backed Yemeni units 768 00:32:17.951 --> 00:32:21.331 abandoned large quantities of their equipment during their retreat. 769 00:32:21.581 --> 00:32:24.840 That included armored combat vehicles along with tanks, 770 00:32:24.931 --> 00:32:25.421 artillery, 771 00:32:25.541 --> 00:32:27.020 and even drone jamming equipment. 772 00:32:27.310 --> 00:32:31.250 The Houthi videos showed captured hall after hall in their advance. 773 00:32:31.550 --> 00:32:33.219 Then barely a week later, 774 00:32:33.459 --> 00:32:38.209 footage came out and geolocated footage showed that the Saudi-backed Yemen 775 00:32:38.390 --> 00:32:42.510 government forces had recaptured the same territory in their own blitz, 776 00:32:42.839 --> 00:32:46.060 so the Houthis were unable to consolidate some of those gains. 777 00:32:46.349 --> 00:32:46.770 Some of it, 778 00:32:46.790 --> 00:32:49.150 I can't show some of this combat footage because it's, 779 00:32:49.300 --> 00:32:49.790 it's brutal. 780 00:32:49.869 --> 00:32:52.150 They're just running entire Houthi platoons over 781 00:32:52.150 --> 00:32:53.530 with their armored vehicles on the beach. 782 00:32:53.949 --> 00:32:56.869 It's a typical beachgoing day in 2026. 783 00:32:57.300 --> 00:33:01.140 Here we see more of the Yemeni army knocking out Houthis with drones, 784 00:33:01.469 --> 00:33:02.729 showing us the lesson of 785 00:33:02.989 --> 00:33:04.949 just because you can take some land. 786 00:33:05.479 --> 00:33:06.819 Doesn't mean you always should. 787 00:33:07.439 --> 00:33:08.859 Here we see the Yemeni government 788 00:33:09.280 --> 00:33:12.640 focusing fire with FPB drones and hunting Houthi trucks. 789 00:33:12.939 --> 00:33:16.420 Saudi aircraft were also striking Houthi positions during the campaign, 790 00:33:16.880 --> 00:33:21.500 and that is very clear if we look at the tank battles between Thailand and Cambodia. 791 00:33:21.760 --> 00:33:23.000 This might be the strangest. 792 00:33:23.175 --> 00:33:24.645 Tank battle of the drone age. 793 00:33:24.775 --> 00:33:25.925 Inside the T Thai 794 00:33:26.175 --> 00:33:27.375 M48 tank, 795 00:33:27.494 --> 00:33:31.395 the crew is engaging Cambodian T-55 tanks across the border 796 00:33:31.694 --> 00:33:33.015 in December 2025, 797 00:33:33.135 --> 00:33:35.535 destroying the Cambodian tank in the engagement. 798 00:33:35.854 --> 00:33:37.474 These are Cold War tanks that 799 00:33:37.694 --> 00:33:40.635 first entered service when color TV felt futuristic. 800 00:33:41.119 --> 00:33:42.119 But outside the turret, 801 00:33:42.329 --> 00:33:46.119 there's now advanced FPV drones and modern electronic warfare 802 00:33:46.119 --> 00:33:49.369 devices that combine with surveillance systems on the battlefield. 803 00:33:49.449 --> 00:33:52.920 It's like using a VR headset connected to a Nintendo 64. 804 00:33:53.170 --> 00:33:58.040 And the Cambodian forces launched over 125 FPV drones in one single day. 805 00:33:58.290 --> 00:33:59.170 Yet despite that, 806 00:33:59.250 --> 00:34:00.869 the Thai armored forces 807 00:34:01.170 --> 00:34:02.900 were able to keep moving anyways. 808 00:34:03.050 --> 00:34:07.630 The Thai forces conducted ground attacks to seize and regain contested terrain 809 00:34:07.890 --> 00:34:10.050 around positions like Hill 677. 810 00:34:10.510 --> 00:34:12.409 Both sides were trying to advance 811 00:34:12.750 --> 00:34:16.060 forward by exploiting new abilities with their attack drones. 812 00:34:16.429 --> 00:34:19.540 Modern maneuver warfare survived the drone age by evolving, 813 00:34:19.550 --> 00:34:20.860 and that's my point today. 814 00:34:20.989 --> 00:34:22.110 If you wanna learn more, 815 00:34:22.270 --> 00:34:25.540 check out this episode of Ukraine's trench clearing combat footage. 816 00:34:25.790 --> 00:34:26.739 I'm Chris Cappy, 817 00:34:26.918 --> 00:34:28.350 and I'll see you in the next transmission.