WEBVTT

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.

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Are you new to prediction markets?

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Do you need a crash course to figure out what these things are,

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how they work,

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if you can get involved in them?

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Predictable101.com is the place for you.

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We designed this specifically for you.

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It is free.

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Check it out,

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all sorts of resources to understand prediction markets and

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get involved in them if you want to.

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If you just want to learn what's going on in the election,

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we have tons of that going on as well.

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Is it time to panic yet?

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That's the conversation we're gonna have today.

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We have a candidate countdown,

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another candidate in a race that I like,

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and a couple other markets that I kinda like

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as well that I think you'll be interested in.

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Go to predictableShow.com,

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get involved,

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premium subscribers,

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get all sorts of great benefits including

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every prediction market position that I have.

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You can just look at them and decide whether you wanna follow them or not.

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So check it out,

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predictableShow.com.

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.

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Here we go.

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Let's get right to it.

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It's a big day.

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You know,

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we're 41 days away from the midterm elections,

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right around the corner,

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and you might say,

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well,

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that seems still,

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it's like it's like 6 weeks,

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no big deal.

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Well,

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I will tell you lots of places are already early voting,

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and,

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uh,

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coming up on Thursday,

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Illinois,

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uh,

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starts that process along with uh Maine

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and a bunch of other states as we go into October.

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I want to talk to you about the panic button.

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Is it time to hit the panic button?

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Republicans are hitting the panic button.

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That's according to Punchbowl News today.

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Uh,

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they say that they are hitting the panic button

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before election day.

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Uh,

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gas prices are sky high,

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diesel's setting a new record almost daily,

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they say.

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Trump said at the United Nations that the Iran

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war won't end until after the midterm elections.

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Frightening prospect for the GOP,

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according to the Punch Bowl News report.

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They say they talk about some people taking new positions,

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trying to like get out ahead of this,

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try to,

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how do we,

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how do we push back.

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Ashley Hinson,

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senator,

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uh,

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Senate candidate in,

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uh,

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Iowa,

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is demanding the House return to session to enact a ban on diesel exports.

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There's other people saying,

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hey,

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we need to end this war right away.

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That's going on,

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and Republicans are trying to fix these problems the best that they can.

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With just an ungodly amount of money.

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Uh,

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and by the way,

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that is a,

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I'm not,

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that's not me being critical

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of the GOP.

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I think,

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uh,

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you know,

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if they do what they're saying they're doing here,

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I mean,

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I,

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we can't blame them for,

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for spending if they lose.

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Um,

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Texas PAC,

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the Senate Leadership Fund's Lone Star State,

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uh,

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Super PAC,

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adding more than $35 million

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to its already $65 million in TV reservations.

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That puts the GOP leadership endorsed group

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above $100 million in ads to boost Attorney General Ken Paxson over

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James Tallarico,

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the weird

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youth pastor that kicked that left your church in disgrace.

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Uh,

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every time I see him,

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that's what I think of.

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Um,

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all told,

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Republicans expect to spend,

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uh,

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expect to spend between $150 and $200 million in Texas

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to save Paxton.

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I've been critical of Republicans and,

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and what,

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and,

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you know,

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the way they're handling this.

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If they spend $200 million to try to save Ken Paxton and it doesn't work.

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It's not their problem.

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That's,

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that's all on Paxson if he can't win that election.

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That's a lot of resources,

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and these are resources that,

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of course,

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Republicans

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hoped not to spend

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in a place

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like Texas.

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So we will see

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how that goes.

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A new poll out from CNN today.

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Trump midterm woes deepen amid worsened economic backdrop.

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I want to show you a couple of the details of this because look,

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I can show you bad polls honestly for the Republicans every day,

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and,

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uh,

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you should know about them.

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We have a tool at predictableShow.com called the PMC.

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It's the predictable midterm

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consensus,

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and what it does is it takes all these polls from all the places,

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puts them all together in one place,

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it models,

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it takes all the election models you can think of,

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some that are prominent,

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some you've never heard of.

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We go through,

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uh,

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the fundamentals of the race,

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the expert opinions,

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the fundraising,

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all the details,

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go through everything.

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And we give you one place

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to land.

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It's called the PMC,

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the Predictable Market Consensus.

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You can get it at predictableshow.com.

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It's free for you when you're looking for the Senate and House control.

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If you want

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details to every single race,

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that's a part of the premium

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tier.

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The bottom line is,

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and it,

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by the way,

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it also helps you

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compare those numbers against

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the prediction market numbers.

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It's a great way

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to look for value.

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I did an update last night on this,

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and there's one state that's like 20 points different.

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Now one of these is gonna be wrong

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by a large margin.

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And we will get into who that is and,

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and why that is

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uh coming up.

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Um,

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I wanna also show you this,

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this is breaking it down by topic and,

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you know,

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they,

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these are disturbing polls.

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Gonna be honest with you,

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it's disturbing polls.

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Let me set the,

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the tone here really quick for you.

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What we're thinking about now is 2018.

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2018 was a very bad year for Republicans in the midterms.

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It was,

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uh,

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borderline,

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not quite,

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but borderline catastrophic.

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There have been catastrophic years that have been worse than this

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for Republicans,

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but 2018 was pretty rough,

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pretty rough year.

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Let me show you comparisons between 2018 and 2026.

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This is in this poll,

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and you might say,

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well,

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it's a CNN poll,

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I don't believe it.

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First of all,

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I mean,

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it's,

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it's always good to be skeptical of any poll,

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uh,

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especially from a,

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from an organization you might not trust.

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Uh,

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but these,

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the one thing that that's interesting to understand here is these are both

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CNN polls.

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So these are just comparing apples to apples here.

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What's the difference between the view of the American people,

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according to CNN

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both times,

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2018,

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2026,

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Trump's job as president in his midterm here,

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he was -22

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in September 2018,

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58% disapproved,

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36% approved.

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This poll shows him at -24,

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so 2 points worse

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at 33% approval,

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67% disapproval.

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But it gets much,

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much worse and scarier than that.

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Trump's handling of the economy.

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In 2018,

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he was +5.

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Remember,

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2018,

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the economy is going pretty well.

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People,

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you know,

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they might not like Donald Trump and all of his mean tweets,

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but

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the economy is doing really well.

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He's +5 in 2018.

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Now,

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he is minus.

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46.

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On the economy,

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-46.

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I don't think I need to tell you that that's a catastrophic number.

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By the way,

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that's one of the reasons why he was brought into

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office because he's supposed to be the economy guy.

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Everyone loves him for that.

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They are falling out of love,

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at least according to this poll.

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Rating of economic conditions in the country today,

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he was +41 in 2018.

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He's now -44.

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Now,

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that's not exactly a Trump-specific poll,

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it's just a rating of the economic conditions.

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But the bottom line is they do not see this

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positively.

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The American people look at this,

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and this is

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not just CNN,

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it's in pretty much every poll

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will show you that things are not so great when it comes to the economy.

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You also might know that by going to your gas pump,

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right?

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You might not need a CNN poll to tell you

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that things aren't going so swimmingly.

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It's very difficult to win elections in an environment like this.

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I mean,

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I go back,

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I've been doing this for 30 years now.

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And you go back through these elections,

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and I can remember entire elections being focused almost completely

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on what the price was at the pump.

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It's what all,

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whenever a Republican,

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George W.

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Bush had to deal with this multiple times,

289
00:07:23.740 --> 00:07:25.010
whenever a Republican ran,

290
00:07:25.220 --> 00:07:26.770
all they talked about on the news

291
00:07:27.130 --> 00:07:28.210
was gas prices,

292
00:07:28.230 --> 00:07:29.730
and then Obama got into office and it was like,

293
00:07:29.750 --> 00:07:30.490
gas prices,

294
00:07:30.580 --> 00:07:33.370
why would anyone care about such an insignificant thing?

295
00:07:33.620 --> 00:07:33.690
Well,

296
00:07:33.780 --> 00:07:35.520
the media is hitting him with that same

297
00:07:36.060 --> 00:07:36.760
treatment today.

298
00:07:37.260 --> 00:07:37.680
And

299
00:07:37.950 --> 00:07:38.080
look,

300
00:07:38.100 --> 00:07:38.370
it's,

301
00:07:38.420 --> 00:07:40.130
it's real for a lot of people.

302
00:07:40.260 --> 00:07:41.890
If you happen to be a truck driver,

303
00:07:41.980 --> 00:07:43.330
you really understand this.

304
00:07:43.420 --> 00:07:43.610
I mean,

305
00:07:43.660 --> 00:07:45.320
this is absolutely killing you with,

306
00:07:45.460 --> 00:07:46.560
with diesel prices.

307
00:07:46.720 --> 00:07:47.670
It's a real thing,

308
00:07:47.860 --> 00:07:48.780
it's really hitting people,

309
00:07:48.820 --> 00:07:50.210
and I will say this to you too,

310
00:07:50.260 --> 00:07:51.650
if you happen to be one of those people who's like,

311
00:07:51.700 --> 00:07:51.850
oh,

312
00:07:52.100 --> 00:07:52.680
you know,

313
00:07:52.990 --> 00:07:53.090
uh,

314
00:07:53.110 --> 00:07:53.800
gas prices,

315
00:07:53.820 --> 00:07:54.010
come on,

316
00:07:54.060 --> 00:07:55.200
it's not that big of a deal.

317
00:07:55.500 --> 00:07:55.730
First of all,

318
00:07:55.770 --> 00:07:58.610
it's a big deal to people who are dealing with that on a day to day basis,

319
00:07:58.700 --> 00:08:02.210
but it's also a big deal to you because when diesel prices are high,

320
00:08:02.750 --> 00:08:04.360
Everything you buy,

321
00:08:04.550 --> 00:08:04.660
uh,

322
00:08:04.830 --> 00:08:05.850
goes up in price

323
00:08:06.070 --> 00:08:06.530
because

324
00:08:06.630 --> 00:08:08.610
it's being trucked across the country

325
00:08:09.070 --> 00:08:09.540
with diesel,

326
00:08:09.590 --> 00:08:09.740
and,

327
00:08:09.790 --> 00:08:09.940
you know,

328
00:08:09.990 --> 00:08:11.620
it's just one part of the diesel

329
00:08:12.260 --> 00:08:12.620
experience.

330
00:08:12.670 --> 00:08:13.300
It's

331
00:08:13.470 --> 00:08:15.570
people really need this fuel.

332
00:08:15.950 --> 00:08:16.370
So,

333
00:08:16.670 --> 00:08:16.740
uh,

334
00:08:16.830 --> 00:08:17.860
I'll give you one other thing.

335
00:08:17.950 --> 00:08:18.740
This is a generic ballot.

336
00:08:18.820 --> 00:08:19.700
We've been talking a lot about it.

337
00:08:19.720 --> 00:08:20.960
I wanted to give you their number.

338
00:08:21.430 --> 00:08:23.980
This is maybe a slight bit of good news from this poll,

339
00:08:24.070 --> 00:08:24.140
uh,

340
00:08:24.230 --> 00:08:25.650
in September 2018,

341
00:08:25.950 --> 00:08:26.110
um,

342
00:08:26.390 --> 00:08:28.820
Republicans were -12 on the generic ballot.

343
00:08:29.120 --> 00:08:30.460
Here they're only -8.

344
00:08:30.950 --> 00:08:32.809
So -8 is still

345
00:08:32.950 --> 00:08:33.620
pretty bad.

346
00:08:33.750 --> 00:08:35.100
It's about 2018 levels,

347
00:08:35.200 --> 00:08:38.690
slightly better in 2018 levels compared to the CNN poll.

348
00:08:39.030 --> 00:08:41.250
Most polls show it around -8,

349
00:08:41.539 --> 00:08:41.780
um,

350
00:08:41.980 --> 00:08:42.100
uh,

351
00:08:42.470 --> 00:08:42.809
anyway,

352
00:08:43.110 --> 00:08:45.820
but that is a significant improvement.

353
00:08:45.910 --> 00:08:46.040
I mean,

354
00:08:46.110 --> 00:08:47.040
if you're holding that,

355
00:08:47.110 --> 00:08:47.340
uh,

356
00:08:47.460 --> 00:08:47.970
uh,

357
00:08:48.070 --> 00:08:49.820
if you can keep that gap smaller.

358
00:08:50.140 --> 00:08:51.520
Than it was in 2018.

359
00:08:51.730 --> 00:08:54.510
This is probably gonna be a rough year but not a catastrophic year.

360
00:08:55.010 --> 00:08:57.450
2018 to me is the beginning

361
00:08:57.590 --> 00:08:59.470
of cat uh catastrophe.

362
00:08:59.890 --> 00:09:01.200
That's kind of how I think about it.

363
00:09:01.500 --> 00:09:01.720
Um,

364
00:09:01.890 --> 00:09:02.270
and

365
00:09:03.310 --> 00:09:05.250
I get a question over and over and over again.

366
00:09:05.710 --> 00:09:07.140
Cause I talk about this stuff all the time.

367
00:09:07.270 --> 00:09:07.700
Yesterday,

368
00:09:07.720 --> 00:09:09.930
we did a best case scenario for Republicans.

369
00:09:10.230 --> 00:09:10.380
Um,

370
00:09:10.470 --> 00:09:11.900
I don't know if it's coincidence that the,

371
00:09:12.030 --> 00:09:13.190
the episode did really,

372
00:09:13.270 --> 00:09:13.980
really well.

373
00:09:14.250 --> 00:09:16.540
I think people are looking for hope and I'd love to give you hope,

374
00:09:16.600 --> 00:09:17.290
but I also

375
00:09:17.430 --> 00:09:19.020
wanna make sure I'm telling you exactly what's

376
00:09:19.020 --> 00:09:21.070
going on to the best of my understanding.

377
00:09:21.320 --> 00:09:22.260
That's my job here.

378
00:09:22.390 --> 00:09:22.770
Um,

379
00:09:22.990 --> 00:09:23.070
I,

380
00:09:23.150 --> 00:09:23.260
I,

381
00:09:23.310 --> 00:09:23.460
I,

382
00:09:23.550 --> 00:09:24.860
I wanna give you good news when I can.

383
00:09:25.280 --> 00:09:25.350
Uh,

384
00:09:25.440 --> 00:09:26.990
I don't wanna hide good news from you,

385
00:09:27.280 --> 00:09:28.910
but I also wanna make sure you understand

386
00:09:28.910 --> 00:09:31.700
that right now things are not necessarily lining up

387
00:09:31.880 --> 00:09:35.030
well if you happen to be a conservative or a Republican.

388
00:09:35.290 --> 00:09:37.860
So let's take a quick look at the predictable

389
00:09:38.010 --> 00:09:38.780
post office.

390
00:09:46.790 --> 00:09:47.670
This question,

391
00:09:47.990 --> 00:09:50.300
question comes to you from a premium subscriber,

392
00:09:50.430 --> 00:09:51.770
Richard in Mesa.

393
00:09:51.910 --> 00:09:52.180
He says,

394
00:09:52.270 --> 00:09:53.290
my main question

395
00:09:53.390 --> 00:09:54.220
is pretty simple.

396
00:09:55.420 --> 00:09:56.420
When do I panic?

397
00:09:56.840 --> 00:09:58.990
I've got money on Paxton in Texas

398
00:09:59.160 --> 00:10:00.860
and on Republicans holding the Senate.

399
00:10:01.160 --> 00:10:04.780
When do I start worrying about those positions and

400
00:10:05.120 --> 00:10:08.300
when does worrying turn into some actually doing something?

401
00:10:09.180 --> 00:10:10.410
Should I stop adding?

402
00:10:11.180 --> 00:10:12.550
Should I cut back?

403
00:10:13.150 --> 00:10:14.400
Should I pick up some

404
00:10:14.620 --> 00:10:17.930
democratic position so I don't have everything riding on the same outcome?

405
00:10:18.140 --> 00:10:20.850
I don't want to overreact and sell things I'll regret selling,

406
00:10:20.980 --> 00:10:21.240
but

407
00:10:21.380 --> 00:10:25.050
I don't want to keep telling myself it'll be fine until it's too late.

408
00:10:25.480 --> 00:10:27.890
How do you tell the difference between being patient?

409
00:10:28.610 --> 00:10:29.620
And being stubborn

410
00:10:30.900 --> 00:10:31.820
Basically,

411
00:10:32.620 --> 00:10:34.570
should I already be panicking,

412
00:10:34.820 --> 00:10:35.700
says Richard

413
00:10:36.140 --> 00:10:36.650
in Mesa,

414
00:10:36.700 --> 00:10:37.130
Arizona.

415
00:10:37.220 --> 00:10:37.530
By the way,

416
00:10:37.690 --> 00:10:40.160
questions at predictableShow.com if you've got,

417
00:10:40.220 --> 00:10:40.330
uh,

418
00:10:40.420 --> 00:10:42.640
or you can go on the chat at predictableShow.com as well

419
00:10:42.980 --> 00:10:43.170
to,

420
00:10:43.260 --> 00:10:43.530
uh,

421
00:10:43.660 --> 00:10:44.160
to get,

422
00:10:44.260 --> 00:10:44.860
uh,

423
00:10:45.340 --> 00:10:46.390
your questions in.

424
00:10:46.620 --> 00:10:47.600
It's a great question.

425
00:10:48.060 --> 00:10:48.470
It's

426
00:10:49.330 --> 00:10:50.080
And I wanna make sure I,

427
00:10:50.170 --> 00:10:50.240
I,

428
00:10:50.330 --> 00:10:51.230
I say this clearly.

429
00:10:51.630 --> 00:10:54.210
It is how you should be thinking right now.

430
00:10:54.450 --> 00:10:55.990
You should not be thinking with rose

431
00:10:56.210 --> 00:10:59.000
colored glasses that everything's gonna turn out OK for any Republican

432
00:10:59.000 --> 00:11:00.680
position that I took or any position that you took.

433
00:11:00.770 --> 00:11:02.450
You should always be questioning yourself.

434
00:11:02.770 --> 00:11:04.270
That is one of the hardest things to do.

435
00:11:04.420 --> 00:11:06.210
If you look at the book Super Forecasting,

436
00:11:06.290 --> 00:11:06.720
it's in there,

437
00:11:06.770 --> 00:11:07.020
it's,

438
00:11:07.090 --> 00:11:10.470
it's in anybody who's written a book about forecasting or trying to predict things,

439
00:11:10.610 --> 00:11:11.320
will tell you the same stuff.

440
00:11:11.430 --> 00:11:13.190
You gotta be constantly

441
00:11:13.350 --> 00:11:14.370
questioning yourself

442
00:11:14.570 --> 00:11:15.160
all the time.

443
00:11:15.570 --> 00:11:17.820
You need to put yourself on the line

444
00:11:18.090 --> 00:11:18.870
all the time

445
00:11:18.970 --> 00:11:21.590
and push your own preconceived notions

446
00:11:22.110 --> 00:11:22.680
all the time.

447
00:11:22.770 --> 00:11:23.000
It's,

448
00:11:23.110 --> 00:11:24.480
and this is why this isn't for everybody,

449
00:11:24.570 --> 00:11:24.920
honestly,

450
00:11:25.010 --> 00:11:26.080
when it comes to prediction markets.

451
00:11:26.130 --> 00:11:27.390
It's difficult to do that.

452
00:11:27.730 --> 00:11:27.880
You know,

453
00:11:27.930 --> 00:11:29.790
it's a lot easier to kinda have an opinion and

454
00:11:29.930 --> 00:11:30.360
when you're wrong,

455
00:11:30.440 --> 00:11:32.090
you kinda forget it and move on to the next thing.

456
00:11:32.210 --> 00:11:33.680
You can't do that with prediction markets.

457
00:11:33.850 --> 00:11:35.030
They hold you responsible

458
00:11:35.170 --> 00:11:36.320
because you have money on the line.

459
00:11:37.150 --> 00:11:37.520
So,

460
00:11:37.740 --> 00:11:38.700
Richard's question

461
00:11:38.940 --> 00:11:39.720
is a great one.

462
00:11:40.260 --> 00:11:41.160
Should I panic?

463
00:11:41.420 --> 00:11:42.650
I'm gonna break this into two pieces.

464
00:11:42.740 --> 00:11:43.370
Number 1,

465
00:11:43.660 --> 00:11:48.290
if you're concerned about just the Republicans um outlook for the election.

466
00:11:49.290 --> 00:11:51.330
You should probably do what the Republicans are doing.

467
00:11:51.450 --> 00:11:52.320
Remember at the beginning,

468
00:11:52.570 --> 00:11:52.960
beginning of this,

469
00:11:53.010 --> 00:11:54.680
we talked about hitting the panic button.

470
00:11:55.010 --> 00:11:57.210
You probably should hit the panic button here.

471
00:11:57.370 --> 00:12:00.660
And what the panic button means when it comes to day to day politics

472
00:12:00.850 --> 00:12:01.270
is

473
00:12:02.320 --> 00:12:03.780
There's no more holding back.

474
00:12:04.200 --> 00:12:05.090
If you were concerned,

475
00:12:05.280 --> 00:12:05.510
you know,

476
00:12:05.670 --> 00:12:08.630
should I bother volunteering and making a few phone calls?

477
00:12:08.800 --> 00:12:10.590
Should I bother going knocking door to door?

478
00:12:10.670 --> 00:12:13.740
Should I bother convincing my friend about this or that?

479
00:12:14.910 --> 00:12:18.700
Whatever you think is the right thing for you to do in that situation,

480
00:12:18.790 --> 00:12:19.980
it's time to pull it out of the,

481
00:12:20.150 --> 00:12:22.010
the magic trick box because

482
00:12:22.430 --> 00:12:22.660
right now,

483
00:12:22.710 --> 00:12:24.730
this is a challenging situation

484
00:12:25.030 --> 00:12:25.820
for Republicans.

485
00:12:25.910 --> 00:12:27.220
Maybe we can talk to Steve Dace,

486
00:12:27.310 --> 00:12:27.420
uh,

487
00:12:27.590 --> 00:12:28.180
later on this week.

488
00:12:28.230 --> 00:12:29.780
He had a tweet that kind of went viral

489
00:12:30.070 --> 00:12:31.050
about how bad it is,

490
00:12:31.070 --> 00:12:31.380
even in,

491
00:12:31.430 --> 00:12:32.340
in a place like Iowa,

492
00:12:32.370 --> 00:12:33.450
a place that I have money.

493
00:12:33.550 --> 00:12:34.980
I have money on Ashley Hinson

494
00:12:35.230 --> 00:12:36.080
in Iowa.

495
00:12:36.390 --> 00:12:36.930
Um,

496
00:12:37.360 --> 00:12:39.060
am I concerned about the position?

497
00:12:39.230 --> 00:12:39.340
Yeah,

498
00:12:39.470 --> 00:12:41.490
a lot more concerned than I was a month or two ago.

499
00:12:41.970 --> 00:12:42.040
Uh,

500
00:12:42.150 --> 00:12:44.120
and that is something that's part of the process

501
00:12:44.120 --> 00:12:45.680
that I go through every one of these elections.

502
00:12:45.770 --> 00:12:46.740
When I take a position,

503
00:12:47.170 --> 00:12:48.320
I look at it and I say,

504
00:12:48.410 --> 00:12:48.470
do,

505
00:12:48.570 --> 00:12:49.570
am I still confident in it?

506
00:12:49.650 --> 00:12:50.320
With Ashley Hinson,

507
00:12:50.390 --> 00:12:52.100
I'm still optimistic about that position.

508
00:12:52.410 --> 00:12:52.750
Um,

509
00:12:52.890 --> 00:12:53.170
I'm,

510
00:12:53.290 --> 00:12:53.480
you know,

511
00:12:53.610 --> 00:12:54.960
I'm gonna look at that and I'm gonna take some,

512
00:12:55.050 --> 00:12:56.950
I'm gonna tell you some steps on how to deal with this.

513
00:12:57.170 --> 00:12:58.510
But when it comes to actually

514
00:12:58.850 --> 00:13:00.080
talking about the election

515
00:13:00.410 --> 00:13:01.280
with your friends,

516
00:13:01.530 --> 00:13:02.270
trying to move people,

517
00:13:02.370 --> 00:13:03.420
doing volunteering,

518
00:13:03.690 --> 00:13:04.160
donating,

519
00:13:04.290 --> 00:13:06.310
whatever you think is the right thing to do.

520
00:13:06.720 --> 00:13:06.870
Yeah,

521
00:13:07.000 --> 00:13:08.590
it's probably time to do it if you,

522
00:13:08.640 --> 00:13:08.830
uh,

523
00:13:08.920 --> 00:13:11.240
want your side to win because this is a key,

524
00:13:11.480 --> 00:13:12.300
a key moment.

525
00:13:12.640 --> 00:13:14.210
On the prediction market side,

526
00:13:15.250 --> 00:13:16.120
I'm not panicking.

527
00:13:17.300 --> 00:13:18.590
I have a,

528
00:13:18.620 --> 00:13:18.730
uh,

529
00:13:18.820 --> 00:13:21.040
a good amount of money on

530
00:13:21.310 --> 00:13:23.650
both Republican and Democratic candidates here.

531
00:13:24.100 --> 00:13:28.310
I have a portfolio that is pretty widespread over

532
00:13:28.500 --> 00:13:29.980
over 300 positions.

533
00:13:30.060 --> 00:13:31.250
If you go to predictableShow.com,

534
00:13:31.300 --> 00:13:32.370
you can see each one of them.

535
00:13:32.700 --> 00:13:32.730
Uh,

536
00:13:32.820 --> 00:13:34.720
over 300 positions in prediction markets,

537
00:13:34.980 --> 00:13:36.370
and I have those,

538
00:13:36.420 --> 00:13:36.890
uh,

539
00:13:37.180 --> 00:13:37.650
those,

540
00:13:37.820 --> 00:13:37.970
uh,

541
00:13:38.020 --> 00:13:39.400
positions laid out,

542
00:13:39.770 --> 00:13:40.070
um,

543
00:13:40.340 --> 00:13:41.660
for you to be able to look at.

544
00:13:42.430 --> 00:13:43.520
A lot of them are,

545
00:13:43.680 --> 00:13:43.910
there's,

546
00:13:44.000 --> 00:13:46.400
they kind of fall into a different bunch of different boxes.

547
00:13:46.680 --> 00:13:48.150
Some Democrats that I think are,

548
00:13:48.240 --> 00:13:49.370
I'm almost sure are going to win.

549
00:13:49.400 --> 00:13:50.640
Some Republicans I feel really,

550
00:13:50.720 --> 00:13:52.340
really confident and almost sure

551
00:13:52.570 --> 00:13:53.510
are going to win.

552
00:13:53.840 --> 00:13:56.250
And then as she's kind of stepped down off of that basis,

553
00:13:56.320 --> 00:13:57.700
you start seeing races where,

554
00:13:57.720 --> 00:13:57.830
like,

555
00:13:57.880 --> 00:13:57.910
um,

556
00:13:58.120 --> 00:13:58.270
you know,

557
00:13:58.320 --> 00:13:59.270
Ashley Hinson's a good example.

558
00:13:59.360 --> 00:14:00.220
I think she's favored.

559
00:14:00.400 --> 00:14:03.020
I think she's favored by more than where she is now in these markets.

560
00:14:03.140 --> 00:14:05.220
I feel confident that there's value in there,

561
00:14:05.510 --> 00:14:08.310
but that does not mean I'm 100% sure she's going to win.

562
00:14:08.760 --> 00:14:10.580
I'm looking for value in these candidates,

563
00:14:10.960 --> 00:14:11.250
so.

564
00:14:11.720 --> 00:14:13.420
And you have those on both sides as well.

565
00:14:15.260 --> 00:14:17.150
What I wanna make sure is that I'm,

566
00:14:17.240 --> 00:14:17.430
I'm,

567
00:14:17.480 --> 00:14:18.700
I'm balanced right,

568
00:14:18.960 --> 00:14:20.750
and I wanna make sure I don't panic

569
00:14:21.050 --> 00:14:22.270
until it's time to panic.

570
00:14:22.560 --> 00:14:25.430
And that question of when should I panic has been weighing

571
00:14:25.430 --> 00:14:27.310
on me here for the next last couple of weeks.

572
00:14:27.440 --> 00:14:28.240
When should I panic?

573
00:14:28.360 --> 00:14:29.300
When should I do that?

574
00:14:29.720 --> 00:14:31.960
And after extensive research,

575
00:14:32.360 --> 00:14:33.340
and back and forth,

576
00:14:33.440 --> 00:14:35.820
and arguing with myself and everybody on the team,

577
00:14:36.360 --> 00:14:37.550
when should we panic?

578
00:14:37.960 --> 00:14:39.230
We've come up with the day.

579
00:14:40.180 --> 00:14:41.210
We should panic

580
00:14:41.420 --> 00:14:42.780
on October 19th.

581
00:14:43.630 --> 00:14:44.020
Yes,

582
00:14:44.270 --> 00:14:45.360
October 19th,

583
00:14:45.550 --> 00:14:45.860
Monday,

584
00:14:45.990 --> 00:14:47.810
October 19th is officially.

585
00:14:48.360 --> 00:14:50.150
Predictable panic day.

586
00:14:52.160 --> 00:14:53.780
On October 19th,

587
00:14:54.400 --> 00:14:56.710
if things are not turning around a little bit,

588
00:14:56.800 --> 00:14:58.590
I'm going to start panicking.

589
00:14:59.620 --> 00:15:00.560
And panic

590
00:15:01.710 --> 00:15:02.110
Look,

591
00:15:02.470 --> 00:15:04.780
if someone is breaking into your house,

592
00:15:05.030 --> 00:15:06.900
panic probably a good thing.

593
00:15:07.350 --> 00:15:09.190
But you'd like to be prepared for that situation.

594
00:15:09.630 --> 00:15:11.770
There's a giant tornado coming at your house,

595
00:15:11.930 --> 00:15:13.340
panic might be great,

596
00:15:13.770 --> 00:15:14.820
be good if you're prepared.

597
00:15:15.700 --> 00:15:17.320
I kind of think of it that way.

598
00:15:17.420 --> 00:15:17.530
Like,

599
00:15:17.690 --> 00:15:17.700
uh,

600
00:15:17.780 --> 00:15:18.540
let me

601
00:15:18.910 --> 00:15:19.290
think of,

602
00:15:19.460 --> 00:15:21.980
think of what we are facing right now as sort of like a,

603
00:15:22.020 --> 00:15:23.880
a hurricane that's sitting off coast.

604
00:15:24.180 --> 00:15:24.940
And where I,

605
00:15:25.060 --> 00:15:28.090
what I have done with my prediction market portfolio in this election

606
00:15:28.420 --> 00:15:30.960
is to make sure I am very well positioned

607
00:15:31.130 --> 00:15:33.930
for the overwhelming majority of possibilities.

608
00:15:34.540 --> 00:15:37.210
I don't want to take a lot of risk here.

609
00:15:37.300 --> 00:15:39.740
I'm not trying to get 100 to 1

610
00:15:39.940 --> 00:15:40.870
outcomes,

611
00:15:41.100 --> 00:15:41.210
uh,

612
00:15:41.300 --> 00:15:42.330
and I'm not looking to,

613
00:15:42.630 --> 00:15:43.630
to necessarily

614
00:15:43.900 --> 00:15:45.760
take massive risks

615
00:15:46.020 --> 00:15:48.360
and huge long shots constantly.

616
00:15:48.620 --> 00:15:51.330
What I'm trying to do is grow my portfolio.

617
00:15:51.510 --> 00:15:53.290
People talk about prediction markets or gambling,

618
00:15:53.490 --> 00:15:54.720
not the way we do it here.

619
00:15:55.060 --> 00:15:59.730
The way we do it here is to slowly and methodically grow our portfolio,

620
00:15:59.980 --> 00:16:02.600
and that's why we talk about it in a sense of investing.

621
00:16:03.110 --> 00:16:04.300
These are things that I,

622
00:16:04.390 --> 00:16:06.950
I've spent a lot of time trying to understand and these things that I've,

623
00:16:07.030 --> 00:16:09.050
I've been able to be profitable on.

624
00:16:09.310 --> 00:16:10.710
Every single year I've been involved in,

625
00:16:10.790 --> 00:16:12.050
in prediction markets

626
00:16:12.290 --> 00:16:12.850
over

627
00:16:12.950 --> 00:16:13.530
longer over,

628
00:16:13.550 --> 00:16:14.210
over a decade.

629
00:16:14.310 --> 00:16:15.020
That doesn't sound,

630
00:16:15.150 --> 00:16:16.340
that's not how gambling works.

631
00:16:16.430 --> 00:16:16.580
I mean,

632
00:16:16.630 --> 00:16:16.940
I don't know,

633
00:16:17.030 --> 00:16:19.460
maybe for certain like high-level uh poker players,

634
00:16:19.510 --> 00:16:20.060
it works that way,

635
00:16:20.110 --> 00:16:21.200
but I gotta be honest with you.

636
00:16:21.610 --> 00:16:22.480
I'm not high level,

637
00:16:22.610 --> 00:16:22.760
uh,

638
00:16:22.890 --> 00:16:23.230
you know,

639
00:16:23.290 --> 00:16:26.190
I'm just a normal guy who really is interested in this stuff

640
00:16:26.370 --> 00:16:27.710
and really wants to understand it.

641
00:16:27.930 --> 00:16:28.270
So,

642
00:16:28.410 --> 00:16:29.320
that's why we've,

643
00:16:29.410 --> 00:16:30.160
we've been able to,

644
00:16:30.330 --> 00:16:30.590
to,

645
00:16:30.690 --> 00:16:31.050
uh,

646
00:16:31.250 --> 00:16:33.720
to put the website together and try to guide you through this process.

647
00:16:34.480 --> 00:16:37.390
But when you have a black swan type of event,

648
00:16:38.160 --> 00:16:40.020
You have to start preparing for that.

649
00:16:40.320 --> 00:16:41.910
When you have a situation where there's

650
00:16:41.910 --> 00:16:43.750
a hurricane offshore and they're telling you,

651
00:16:43.840 --> 00:16:43.990
hey,

652
00:16:44.120 --> 00:16:44.580
by the way,

653
00:16:44.800 --> 00:16:46.070
I know you live on the beach.

654
00:16:46.480 --> 00:16:48.420
A hurricane's forming offshore,

655
00:16:48.640 --> 00:16:49.900
does that mean you,

656
00:16:49.960 --> 00:16:50.310
you know,

657
00:16:50.440 --> 00:16:50.710
uh,

658
00:16:51.120 --> 00:16:52.020
run for the hills?

659
00:16:52.170 --> 00:16:53.990
Does that mean you take the car and you go,

660
00:16:54.130 --> 00:16:54.230
uh,

661
00:16:54.320 --> 00:16:54.430
uh,

662
00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:55.390
drive inland?

663
00:16:55.720 --> 00:16:57.430
It might be that point.

664
00:16:58.200 --> 00:16:59.580
But it's not necessarily that point right now.

665
00:17:00.680 --> 00:17:02.310
A lot of the positions that we've taken,

666
00:17:02.430 --> 00:17:03.030
I'm still

667
00:17:03.590 --> 00:17:04.460
completely confident,

668
00:17:04.550 --> 00:17:04.700
uh,

669
00:17:04.790 --> 00:17:05.079
in,

670
00:17:05.180 --> 00:17:06.770
and I feel confident about.

671
00:17:07.069 --> 00:17:09.609
One of the reasons why I took those positions

672
00:17:09.819 --> 00:17:12.849
was because there was a massive shield.

673
00:17:13.230 --> 00:17:14.089
I wasn't taking,

674
00:17:14.390 --> 00:17:14.500
uh,

675
00:17:14.790 --> 00:17:14.940
I mean,

676
00:17:14.990 --> 00:17:15.579
there's a few that I,

677
00:17:15.750 --> 00:17:16.220
I play with,

678
00:17:16.310 --> 00:17:16.569
but like,

679
00:17:16.589 --> 00:17:17.060
I'm not taking,

680
00:17:17.109 --> 00:17:17.750
I'm not the,

681
00:17:17.950 --> 00:17:19.490
the mass majority

682
00:17:19.710 --> 00:17:21.900
of my portfolio are not elections

683
00:17:22.150 --> 00:17:22.609
where,

684
00:17:22.869 --> 00:17:22.980
uh,

685
00:17:23.079 --> 00:17:26.280
I think it's 50 or 51-49 chance that we're gonna win.

686
00:17:26.430 --> 00:17:26.550
I'll,

687
00:17:26.670 --> 00:17:27.980
I'll dabble in those markets.

688
00:17:28.580 --> 00:17:31.720
But I don't put a ton of my money in those markets because I want to,

689
00:17:31.980 --> 00:17:32.130
uh,

690
00:17:32.260 --> 00:17:33.800
be at a place where I can be,

691
00:17:33.860 --> 00:17:34.050
uh,

692
00:17:34.230 --> 00:17:35.170
profitable overall,

693
00:17:35.220 --> 00:17:36.290
and I might miss one of those.

694
00:17:36.420 --> 00:17:38.390
I might miss more than one of those.

695
00:17:38.710 --> 00:17:41.900
So I prepare myself by taking things with massive cushions,

696
00:17:42.300 --> 00:17:42.610
right?

697
00:17:42.900 --> 00:17:42.980
Uh,

698
00:17:43.100 --> 00:17:46.190
if I think it's a 10 point victory for one candidate or the other,

699
00:17:46.930 --> 00:17:47.400
Uh,

700
00:17:47.530 --> 00:17:49.620
I'm comfortable maybe being there

701
00:17:49.990 --> 00:17:50.790
because even if,

702
00:17:50.970 --> 00:17:51.160
uh,

703
00:17:51.330 --> 00:17:53.200
I'm wrong on the election or there's a big,

704
00:17:53.260 --> 00:17:53.440
uh,

705
00:17:53.610 --> 00:17:55.220
movement towards the other candidate,

706
00:17:55.570 --> 00:17:56.560
I'm still winning by 2,

707
00:17:56.810 --> 00:17:57.000
right?

708
00:17:57.290 --> 00:17:58.040
And I'm fine with that.

709
00:17:58.170 --> 00:17:59.280
It's a nice big margin.

710
00:18:00.010 --> 00:18:01.560
I have a lot of those positions,

711
00:18:01.850 --> 00:18:02.710
some of those,

712
00:18:03.210 --> 00:18:04.990
I'm starting to get a little nervous about.

713
00:18:05.720 --> 00:18:09.510
And how do you prepare yourself and how do you shield yourself for what could be,

714
00:18:09.640 --> 00:18:11.040
could be a hurricane

715
00:18:11.280 --> 00:18:12.860
forming off of our shores?

716
00:18:13.810 --> 00:18:14.430
Do you

717
00:18:14.730 --> 00:18:15.840
board up your windows right now?

718
00:18:15.900 --> 00:18:16.510
I say no.

719
00:18:17.590 --> 00:18:18.420
Do you panic right now?

720
00:18:18.480 --> 00:18:19.140
I say no.

721
00:18:20.310 --> 00:18:22.220
Panic Day is October 19th.

722
00:18:22.430 --> 00:18:23.930
When we come back on that Monday,

723
00:18:24.030 --> 00:18:26.390
I will tell you whether I think it's time to panic or not.

724
00:18:26.790 --> 00:18:28.700
And we may be there or we may not be there,

725
00:18:28.790 --> 00:18:30.230
but between now and then,

726
00:18:30.250 --> 00:18:31.260
there are tons of,

727
00:18:31.310 --> 00:18:31.930
let's say,

728
00:18:32.390 --> 00:18:32.870
debates,

729
00:18:33.190 --> 00:18:34.330
massive events

730
00:18:34.480 --> 00:18:35.650
that could shape

731
00:18:35.800 --> 00:18:36.690
the elections.

732
00:18:36.940 --> 00:18:38.710
We're gonna look at those and see what happens.

733
00:18:38.770 --> 00:18:39.780
We're gonna watch the polls,

734
00:18:39.830 --> 00:18:40.740
we're gonna watch the data,

735
00:18:40.830 --> 00:18:41.770
we're gonna see

736
00:18:41.950 --> 00:18:43.210
if Republicans.

737
00:18:43.510 --> 00:18:45.130
Do what our kind of thesis statement,

738
00:18:45.280 --> 00:18:45.430
uh,

739
00:18:45.550 --> 00:18:45.940
has been,

740
00:18:46.030 --> 00:18:47.580
which is come home a little bit.

741
00:18:47.830 --> 00:18:49.660
Do Republicans come back to their own side?

742
00:18:49.750 --> 00:18:50.770
Do they continue,

743
00:18:51.030 --> 00:18:51.180
uh,

744
00:18:51.350 --> 00:18:54.310
to do what they've done for the past several election cycles?

745
00:18:54.510 --> 00:18:54.620
I mean,

746
00:18:54.710 --> 00:18:55.900
2018 was bad.

747
00:18:56.070 --> 00:18:59.680
It was not as catastrophic as the things that I'm looking at preparing for right now.

748
00:19:00.420 --> 00:19:02.200
So let me give you some things that I am doing,

749
00:19:02.820 --> 00:19:03.090
uh,

750
00:19:03.220 --> 00:19:04.130
and thinking about

751
00:19:04.380 --> 00:19:07.250
here as we kind of extend the hurricane analogy a little bit.

752
00:19:08.070 --> 00:19:09.020
It's important that you know that,

753
00:19:09.110 --> 00:19:09.610
you know,

754
00:19:10.430 --> 00:19:11.940
buying sandbags

755
00:19:12.190 --> 00:19:13.060
is not,

756
00:19:13.190 --> 00:19:13.460
you know,

757
00:19:13.670 --> 00:19:13.940
OK,

758
00:19:14.030 --> 00:19:15.140
landfall is happening.

759
00:19:15.340 --> 00:19:15.500
OK,

760
00:19:15.590 --> 00:19:17.210
that's not what we're looking at right now,

761
00:19:17.350 --> 00:19:19.370
but we should look to prepare

762
00:19:19.630 --> 00:19:22.340
our portfolios so that we don't get stuck

763
00:19:22.590 --> 00:19:23.930
if there is a wave.

764
00:19:25.060 --> 00:19:27.720
So what I'm doing is I'm being a little pickier

765
00:19:28.100 --> 00:19:29.490
about Republican positions.

766
00:19:30.320 --> 00:19:31.670
When I have a position,

767
00:19:31.960 --> 00:19:32.300
um,

768
00:19:32.480 --> 00:19:33.570
if I'm still happy with it,

769
00:19:33.600 --> 00:19:34.050
I keep it,

770
00:19:34.230 --> 00:19:35.220
not selling off

771
00:19:35.360 --> 00:19:35.850
necessarily,

772
00:19:36.080 --> 00:19:36.240
um,

773
00:19:36.360 --> 00:19:37.840
I haven't sold off any of those yet.

774
00:19:38.320 --> 00:19:38.770
However,

775
00:19:39.120 --> 00:19:39.350
uh,

776
00:19:39.480 --> 00:19:42.380
I am holding those positions and not necessarily growing them,

777
00:19:42.840 --> 00:19:46.190
as I wanna see what develops until October 19th.

778
00:19:47.190 --> 00:19:48.130
I am looking

779
00:19:48.470 --> 00:19:49.450
more aggressively

780
00:19:49.590 --> 00:19:51.490
at Democratic opportunities.

781
00:19:51.990 --> 00:19:54.970
States that I looked at as toss-ups or maybe lean Democrat,

782
00:19:55.190 --> 00:19:56.580
I'm starting to like a little bit more.

783
00:19:56.660 --> 00:19:57.970
We'll go through a few of those here

784
00:19:58.120 --> 00:19:58.500
in a minute,

785
00:19:58.590 --> 00:20:00.340
but I mentioned Sherrod Brown recently

786
00:20:00.550 --> 00:20:02.100
on a candidate countdown.

787
00:20:02.310 --> 00:20:03.490
That's one of those where I think,

788
00:20:03.670 --> 00:20:04.180
uh,

789
00:20:04.390 --> 00:20:04.620
you know,

790
00:20:04.750 --> 00:20:06.210
I think there's reason to believe

791
00:20:06.590 --> 00:20:07.740
Republicans are,

792
00:20:07.780 --> 00:20:07.790
uh,

793
00:20:07.830 --> 00:20:08.820
the underdogs there,

794
00:20:09.030 --> 00:20:09.220
um,

795
00:20:09.350 --> 00:20:10.820
and maybe a little bit more than the markets

796
00:20:10.820 --> 00:20:13.170
are even admitting at this point or understanding.

797
00:20:13.470 --> 00:20:13.850
Um,

798
00:20:14.390 --> 00:20:15.820
I'm trying to diversify.

799
00:20:16.430 --> 00:20:18.470
I'm not trying to switch sides.

800
00:20:18.750 --> 00:20:20.420
It doesn't mean that you dump every

801
00:20:20.420 --> 00:20:22.740
Republican position and get every Democratic position.

802
00:20:22.830 --> 00:20:24.620
That would be the equivalent of,

803
00:20:24.790 --> 00:20:24.940
uh,

804
00:20:25.070 --> 00:20:25.220
you know,

805
00:20:25.310 --> 00:20:26.140
going to your windows with,

806
00:20:26.230 --> 00:20:26.510
with,

807
00:20:26.590 --> 00:20:26.950
uh,

808
00:20:27.310 --> 00:20:29.530
with plywood and making sure they're all covered.

809
00:20:29.870 --> 00:20:30.780
I'm not doing that.

810
00:20:31.110 --> 00:20:32.540
But what I am trying to make sure is that I

811
00:20:32.540 --> 00:20:34.580
have a position that can be covered on both sides.

812
00:20:34.690 --> 00:20:36.090
If this winds up happening

813
00:20:36.190 --> 00:20:39.290
and some of my other longer held positions get wiped out,

814
00:20:39.710 --> 00:20:42.250
I wanna make sure I'm getting profit on the other side

815
00:20:42.390 --> 00:20:43.060
to replace them.

816
00:20:43.150 --> 00:20:44.450
So we're working on that right now.

817
00:20:44.900 --> 00:20:46.640
I'm keeping cash available.

818
00:20:47.020 --> 00:20:49.330
Not every dollar that you have in prediction markets needs

819
00:20:49.330 --> 00:20:50.770
to be working for you at the same time.

820
00:20:50.820 --> 00:20:53.620
It's OK to have some cash just hanging out in your account.

821
00:20:53.940 --> 00:20:54.040
Uh,

822
00:20:54.140 --> 00:20:54.450
Calci,

823
00:20:54.580 --> 00:20:54.980
Polymarket,

824
00:20:55.060 --> 00:20:55.960
I think both pay

825
00:20:56.100 --> 00:20:57.210
over 3% interest,

826
00:20:57.380 --> 00:20:59.290
which is probably what you're getting in your bank account anyway.

827
00:20:59.540 --> 00:20:59.960
I should note,

828
00:20:59.980 --> 00:21:01.170
it's not FDIC insured,

829
00:21:01.220 --> 00:21:01.790
so that is,

830
00:21:01.810 --> 00:21:01.820
uh,

831
00:21:02.000 --> 00:21:02.970
important to understand.

832
00:21:03.140 --> 00:21:03.920
But generally speaking,

833
00:21:04.180 --> 00:21:06.200
I'm just getting paid like it's being held in my account,

834
00:21:06.220 --> 00:21:07.740
and if I hold it out of that account and,

835
00:21:07.780 --> 00:21:09.400
and I just have it ready to be,

836
00:21:09.420 --> 00:21:10.530
go into action whenever I need it,

837
00:21:10.580 --> 00:21:11.480
I'm fine with that

838
00:21:11.860 --> 00:21:12.490
for a while.

839
00:21:13.340 --> 00:21:14.240
I'm gonna keep looking

840
00:21:14.420 --> 00:21:15.960
and watching and monitoring,

841
00:21:16.380 --> 00:21:17.680
checking position sizes.

842
00:21:18.830 --> 00:21:19.740
Liking a position,

843
00:21:19.910 --> 00:21:20.820
liking a candidate,

844
00:21:20.870 --> 00:21:21.930
is different

845
00:21:22.510 --> 00:21:22.850
than

846
00:21:23.230 --> 00:21:26.300
saying I like this candidate at this size.

847
00:21:26.550 --> 00:21:32.100
If the biggest thing that you own is a race that's gone negative by a bunch of percent,

848
00:21:32.390 --> 00:21:33.850
and it's going the wrong direction,

849
00:21:34.230 --> 00:21:36.490
it might be worth trimming some of that position.

850
00:21:36.870 --> 00:21:39.250
That might not necessarily mean you've lost faith in that candidate,

851
00:21:39.310 --> 00:21:42.250
and it might mean you take many losses here and there

852
00:21:42.390 --> 00:21:43.580
to accomplish that goal,

853
00:21:43.750 --> 00:21:45.650
but you wanna minimize your exposure

854
00:21:45.910 --> 00:21:46.350
when

855
00:21:46.510 --> 00:21:46.900
needed.

856
00:21:47.370 --> 00:21:47.480
Um,

857
00:21:47.570 --> 00:21:47.640
uh,

858
00:21:47.770 --> 00:21:47.850
you know,

859
00:21:47.890 --> 00:21:48.680
I haven't done that yet,

860
00:21:48.810 --> 00:21:49.320
as I said,

861
00:21:49.450 --> 00:21:49.560
I,

862
00:21:49.730 --> 00:21:52.920
that is something that I will look at doing here in the coming weeks

863
00:21:53.210 --> 00:21:54.560
if this continues to go this way.

864
00:21:54.650 --> 00:21:57.830
And October 19th will be one of those times I'll be looking at that closely,

865
00:21:57.930 --> 00:21:58.970
cause October 19th

866
00:21:59.130 --> 00:22:00.440
is predictable panic day.

867
00:22:02.360 --> 00:22:02.820
Uh

868
00:22:04.070 --> 00:22:04.720
Make sure,

869
00:22:04.830 --> 00:22:05.420
one of the things that,

870
00:22:05.470 --> 00:22:06.720
and this happens all the time,

871
00:22:06.910 --> 00:22:08.250
these markets are correlated,

872
00:22:08.590 --> 00:22:09.020
OK?

873
00:22:09.470 --> 00:22:09.790
If

874
00:22:10.110 --> 00:22:12.130
one Democratic state winds up being better and,

875
00:22:12.150 --> 00:22:12.340
you know,

876
00:22:12.630 --> 00:22:14.160
Democrats outperform themselves there,

877
00:22:14.320 --> 00:22:17.440
usually what that means is they outperform themselves in other places as well.

878
00:22:17.670 --> 00:22:18.620
Same thing with Republicans.

879
00:22:18.710 --> 00:22:20.110
If Republicans wind up doing well,

880
00:22:20.350 --> 00:22:20.510
uh,

881
00:22:20.870 --> 00:22:23.020
you might wind up having a correlated move.

882
00:22:23.110 --> 00:22:24.250
This is the type of thing that,

883
00:22:24.790 --> 00:22:24.980
uh,

884
00:22:25.310 --> 00:22:26.740
Kamala Harris supporters got caught up in.

885
00:22:26.790 --> 00:22:27.070
We're like,

886
00:22:27.090 --> 00:22:27.150
well,

887
00:22:27.190 --> 00:22:28.140
there's 7 swing states,

888
00:22:28.190 --> 00:22:29.220
we're not gonna lose all 7.

889
00:22:29.620 --> 00:22:29.690
Well,

890
00:22:29.740 --> 00:22:30.770
if you're gonna lose one,

891
00:22:31.020 --> 00:22:33.920
the chances are you probably are gonna lose 56 or 7 of them,

892
00:22:34.140 --> 00:22:34.290
right?

893
00:22:34.470 --> 00:22:34.920
Because,

894
00:22:35.300 --> 00:22:35.650
uh,

895
00:22:35.940 --> 00:22:36.090
you know,

896
00:22:36.390 --> 00:22:36.400
the,

897
00:22:36.420 --> 00:22:37.250
these states move together,

898
00:22:37.380 --> 00:22:39.000
the environment is what it is.

899
00:22:39.380 --> 00:22:42.080
Usually there's not an even split 4 to 3.

900
00:22:42.340 --> 00:22:42.530
Um,

901
00:22:42.700 --> 00:22:43.630
so when you're looking at your,

902
00:22:43.860 --> 00:22:44.520
at your markets,

903
00:22:44.710 --> 00:22:45.290
look at it and say,

904
00:22:45.360 --> 00:22:45.450
well,

905
00:22:45.540 --> 00:22:45.910
wait a minute,

906
00:22:46.020 --> 00:22:46.170
if,

907
00:22:46.260 --> 00:22:47.890
if this moves one way,

908
00:22:47.980 --> 00:22:49.520
am I gonna get wiped out on everything

909
00:22:49.700 --> 00:22:50.440
that I have?

910
00:22:51.020 --> 00:22:52.090
I look at that all the time.

911
00:22:52.220 --> 00:22:52.290
Uh,

912
00:22:52.380 --> 00:22:53.090
I'll run that through,

913
00:22:53.300 --> 00:22:53.450
you know,

914
00:22:53.660 --> 00:22:54.170
spreadsheets and stuff.

915
00:22:54.260 --> 00:22:55.930
Maybe we'll create a tool that will help you do this.

916
00:22:56.020 --> 00:22:56.090
I,

917
00:22:56.140 --> 00:22:56.250
I,

918
00:22:56.340 --> 00:22:56.410
I,

919
00:22:56.500 --> 00:22:57.090
I've had one,

920
00:22:57.180 --> 00:22:58.370
I've been playing with one recently.

921
00:22:58.740 --> 00:22:59.010
That I,

922
00:22:59.100 --> 00:22:59.250
you know,

923
00:22:59.340 --> 00:23:01.290
kind of made up on my own for my own stuff.

924
00:23:01.500 --> 00:23:02.260
And I look at it and I say,

925
00:23:02.300 --> 00:23:02.600
well,

926
00:23:02.980 --> 00:23:03.090
you know,

927
00:23:03.140 --> 00:23:07.650
if this is a catastrophic outcome and everything above 70% for Republicans loses,

928
00:23:07.740 --> 00:23:09.200
what does my portfolio look like?

929
00:23:09.700 --> 00:23:10.120
And,

930
00:23:10.340 --> 00:23:10.530
uh,

931
00:23:10.620 --> 00:23:10.890
you know,

932
00:23:11.060 --> 00:23:11.210
if,

933
00:23:11.300 --> 00:23:12.610
if that looks really scary to you,

934
00:23:12.700 --> 00:23:12.810
I've,

935
00:23:12.900 --> 00:23:14.050
I've tried to hedge a lot of that risk,

936
00:23:14.100 --> 00:23:14.970
but if that looks really scary to you,

937
00:23:15.020 --> 00:23:16.010
you might want to look at that.

938
00:23:16.340 --> 00:23:16.570
Um,

939
00:23:16.780 --> 00:23:17.130
there's a bunch,

940
00:23:17.250 --> 00:23:17.970
there's a few other ones here,

941
00:23:18.060 --> 00:23:18.690
but I think that's enough.

942
00:23:18.770 --> 00:23:18.860
I've,

943
00:23:18.980 --> 00:23:19.810
I've hit you with enough stuff.

944
00:23:19.900 --> 00:23:20.330
Let me hit you,

945
00:23:20.500 --> 00:23:20.570
uh,

946
00:23:20.660 --> 00:23:21.940
with a couple more things before we,

947
00:23:21.980 --> 00:23:22.130
uh,

948
00:23:22.260 --> 00:23:22.730
take a break.

949
00:23:23.160 --> 00:23:23.270
Uh,

950
00:23:23.450 --> 00:23:23.830
bring up the,

951
00:23:23.920 --> 00:23:24.030
uh,

952
00:23:24.160 --> 00:23:25.300
the midterms hub here,

953
00:23:25.440 --> 00:23:25.590
uh,

954
00:23:25.760 --> 00:23:27.270
the Calci midterms hub if you can.

955
00:23:27.400 --> 00:23:28.990
This is what the Calci midterms hub looks for.

956
00:23:29.080 --> 00:23:31.060
This is all the prediction market prices for all the states

957
00:23:31.160 --> 00:23:32.670
on a handy dandy map.

958
00:23:32.920 --> 00:23:34.380
They've done a nice job laying that out.

959
00:23:34.560 --> 00:23:34.820
Uh,

960
00:23:35.080 --> 00:23:36.710
thank you to our friends at Calci.

961
00:23:37.200 --> 00:23:37.350
Um,

962
00:23:37.560 --> 00:23:38.230
the Calci midterms hub,

963
00:23:38.360 --> 00:23:38.920
let me see the map here,

964
00:23:39.080 --> 00:23:39.090
uh,

965
00:23:39.200 --> 00:23:39.510
if we could,

966
00:23:39.560 --> 00:23:41.550
64% chance for Democrats to win the Senate.

967
00:23:41.960 --> 00:23:42.940
But if you look at these states,

968
00:23:43.080 --> 00:23:45.220
when I'm saying look for Democratic opportunities,

969
00:23:45.560 --> 00:23:45.710
um,

970
00:23:45.880 --> 00:23:46.740
you'll see a lot of them,

971
00:23:46.760 --> 00:23:47.310
there are none,

972
00:23:47.480 --> 00:23:47.600
right?

973
00:23:47.720 --> 00:23:48.320
New Mexico,

974
00:23:48.480 --> 00:23:49.040
Colorado,

975
00:23:49.240 --> 00:23:49.350
uh,

976
00:23:49.520 --> 00:23:50.240
Oregon,

977
00:23:50.560 --> 00:23:50.750
uh,

978
00:23:50.920 --> 00:23:51.110
you know,

979
00:23:51.320 --> 00:23:52.570
certainly if you look over at,

980
00:23:52.760 --> 00:23:52.950
you know,

981
00:23:53.120 --> 00:23:53.260
uh,

982
00:23:53.410 --> 00:23:54.120
Massachusetts,

983
00:23:54.200 --> 00:23:54.550
Rhode Island,

984
00:23:54.640 --> 00:23:56.110
these are 97 to 98%.

985
00:23:56.200 --> 00:23:58.440
There's almost no gain to be had there,

986
00:23:58.830 --> 00:23:59.980
very little upside.

987
00:24:00.280 --> 00:24:01.230
But you can find a few,

988
00:24:01.360 --> 00:24:02.310
a few other ones.

989
00:24:02.400 --> 00:24:02.980
Let's look at,

990
00:24:03.400 --> 00:24:04.670
give me Michigan here for a second,

991
00:24:04.770 --> 00:24:04.990
Adam,

992
00:24:05.080 --> 00:24:05.560
if you have it.

993
00:24:05.950 --> 00:24:06.530
Michigan

994
00:24:06.630 --> 00:24:07.410
has uh

995
00:24:07.530 --> 00:24:08.900
El Sayed at 73%,

996
00:24:09.060 --> 00:24:10.490
Mike Rogers at 27%.

997
00:24:10.710 --> 00:24:11.410
In my head,

998
00:24:11.430 --> 00:24:13.180
that race is kind of a toss-up.

999
00:24:13.630 --> 00:24:15.180
I think if I had to,

1000
00:24:15.310 --> 00:24:15.880
gun to my head,

1001
00:24:16.030 --> 00:24:16.530
pick

1002
00:24:16.840 --> 00:24:18.460
a particular candidate there,

1003
00:24:18.510 --> 00:24:20.740
I'd probably lean Democrat given this,

1004
00:24:20.830 --> 00:24:21.170
um,

1005
00:24:21.470 --> 00:24:22.940
this climate that we're in.

1006
00:24:23.740 --> 00:24:24.400
But again,

1007
00:24:24.700 --> 00:24:27.850
27 cents of profit on a 73% investment.

1008
00:24:27.920 --> 00:24:29.150
You're about a third,

1009
00:24:29.300 --> 00:24:30.370
a third profit there.

1010
00:24:30.460 --> 00:24:31.210
It's a nice number.

1011
00:24:31.300 --> 00:24:32.890
There's still plenty of room for that to run.

1012
00:24:32.980 --> 00:24:35.630
If you're looking to protect against the Democratic wave,

1013
00:24:35.820 --> 00:24:36.510
it's a state

1014
00:24:36.700 --> 00:24:37.540
worth considering.

1015
00:24:37.700 --> 00:24:38.850
Let's look at Ohio.

1016
00:24:39.060 --> 00:24:39.970
Ohio is the same thing.

1017
00:24:40.050 --> 00:24:41.010
I've mentioned this earlier.

1018
00:24:41.220 --> 00:24:42.530
Sherrod Brown's at 60%.

1019
00:24:42.580 --> 00:24:43.560
It's up from

1020
00:24:43.660 --> 00:24:44.110
52%,

1021
00:24:44.180 --> 00:24:44.590
53%,

1022
00:24:44.660 --> 00:24:46.600
54% where I was buying it initially.

1023
00:24:46.900 --> 00:24:46.950
Uh,

1024
00:24:47.020 --> 00:24:47.690
it is rising.

1025
00:24:47.820 --> 00:24:49.250
Everything's rising for the Democrats right now.

1026
00:24:49.670 --> 00:24:49.900
Um,

1027
00:24:50.070 --> 00:24:50.220
you know,

1028
00:24:50.350 --> 00:24:50.950
so it might be,

1029
00:24:51.070 --> 00:24:52.690
and we may see a peak here and it might turn around.

1030
00:24:52.790 --> 00:24:55.500
That's why we're waiting till October 19th to panic on these races.

1031
00:24:55.590 --> 00:24:56.790
But Sherrod Brown is one that I think,

1032
00:24:56.870 --> 00:24:57.490
I actually think

1033
00:24:57.620 --> 00:24:58.740
probably will win,

1034
00:24:59.030 --> 00:24:59.160
um,

1035
00:24:59.310 --> 00:25:00.860
and he is a 60/40 favorite.

1036
00:25:01.070 --> 00:25:01.980
Tons of room to run there.

1037
00:25:02.030 --> 00:25:02.180
I mean,

1038
00:25:02.230 --> 00:25:02.530
that's

1039
00:25:02.780 --> 00:25:04.530
a 67% profit

1040
00:25:04.710 --> 00:25:07.060
here in the next six weeks if you believe in that one.

1041
00:25:07.150 --> 00:25:08.130
Another one I'll give you,

1042
00:25:08.420 --> 00:25:08.500
again,

1043
00:25:08.830 --> 00:25:10.220
Democratic opportunity just in the Senate,

1044
00:25:10.270 --> 00:25:11.930
that's all we're looking at is New Hampshire.

1045
00:25:12.230 --> 00:25:12.820
New Hampshire,

1046
00:25:13.070 --> 00:25:14.170
some of the polling is close

1047
00:25:14.310 --> 00:25:14.690
here.

1048
00:25:15.070 --> 00:25:17.190
And John Sununu is a well-known guy in the state.

1049
00:25:17.470 --> 00:25:17.540
Uh,

1050
00:25:17.710 --> 00:25:19.430
this is why you're getting value,

1051
00:25:19.500 --> 00:25:20.860
like 84%

1052
00:25:20.990 --> 00:25:24.410
in a state that leans probably to the blue side anyway.

1053
00:25:24.720 --> 00:25:24.820
Uh,

1054
00:25:24.950 --> 00:25:25.580
it's purplish,

1055
00:25:25.660 --> 00:25:27.040
but it leans to the blue side

1056
00:25:27.230 --> 00:25:28.780
and in a very blue environment,

1057
00:25:28.950 --> 00:25:30.780
if you're looking for something that would offset.

1058
00:25:30.870 --> 00:25:30.980
Now,

1059
00:25:31.190 --> 00:25:31.340
look,

1060
00:25:31.430 --> 00:25:33.450
if this comes back and Sununu wins,

1061
00:25:33.630 --> 00:25:36.780
your other Republican positions are very likely to do

1062
00:25:36.780 --> 00:25:38.850
much better than you're hoping right now anyway.

1063
00:25:39.110 --> 00:25:39.520
So,

1064
00:25:39.750 --> 00:25:40.300
it doesn't mean you,

1065
00:25:40.430 --> 00:25:42.660
you dump all your money into Chris Pappas,

1066
00:25:42.950 --> 00:25:44.390
but it is something to consider.

1067
00:25:44.900 --> 00:25:45.040
Uh,

1068
00:25:45.250 --> 00:25:45.490
look,

1069
00:25:45.610 --> 00:25:46.750
this is a weird time.

1070
00:25:47.370 --> 00:25:49.240
If you're looking at just election outcomes,

1071
00:25:49.610 --> 00:25:50.350
the time is,

1072
00:25:50.610 --> 00:25:51.330
it is the,

1073
00:25:51.410 --> 00:25:52.800
the message is be active,

1074
00:25:53.250 --> 00:25:53.960
do what you,

1075
00:25:54.170 --> 00:25:54.360
you know,

1076
00:25:54.530 --> 00:25:55.120
certainly vote,

1077
00:25:55.330 --> 00:25:58.640
but go out there and do the things that you think can move the needle any way you can

1078
00:25:59.040 --> 00:25:59.800
because your side,

1079
00:25:59.850 --> 00:26:00.040
if you,

1080
00:26:00.130 --> 00:26:00.280
if you,

1081
00:26:00.370 --> 00:26:01.550
if you care about your side winning,

1082
00:26:01.690 --> 00:26:02.780
it is vitally important.

1083
00:26:02.970 --> 00:26:03.760
This isn't.

1084
00:26:04.720 --> 00:26:05.670
I guess what I'm saying is

1085
00:26:06.080 --> 00:26:07.500
there's a lot of mainstream media

1086
00:26:07.760 --> 00:26:08.150
hype.

1087
00:26:09.050 --> 00:26:09.730
And,

1088
00:26:09.810 --> 00:26:10.480
uh,

1089
00:26:10.610 --> 00:26:11.960
a lot of times it's not real.

1090
00:26:12.410 --> 00:26:15.390
This is a real threat if you are a conservative or a Republican

1091
00:26:15.570 --> 00:26:16.350
to lose

1092
00:26:16.850 --> 00:26:19.940
really the rest of the Trump presidency here because once,

1093
00:26:20.130 --> 00:26:20.320
you know,

1094
00:26:20.410 --> 00:26:21.590
once these guys go down,

1095
00:26:21.740 --> 00:26:21.840
uh,

1096
00:26:21.930 --> 00:26:22.120
you know,

1097
00:26:22.170 --> 00:26:22.360
if you,

1098
00:26:22.410 --> 00:26:23.420
if you lose even the House,

1099
00:26:23.650 --> 00:26:24.720
it's gonna be tough to pass anything.

1100
00:26:24.770 --> 00:26:25.400
You lose the Senate,

1101
00:26:25.450 --> 00:26:26.270
you're talking about

1102
00:26:26.490 --> 00:26:28.120
Supreme Court justices and so many other things

1103
00:26:28.120 --> 00:26:29.160
that we've talked about a million times,

1104
00:26:29.250 --> 00:26:29.870
so that's that.

1105
00:26:30.250 --> 00:26:30.800
Secondarily,

1106
00:26:30.890 --> 00:26:32.110
if you're in prediction markets,

1107
00:26:32.570 --> 00:26:33.170
think about that,

1108
00:26:33.200 --> 00:26:33.440
that,

1109
00:26:33.490 --> 00:26:35.870
that investment advice you've heard a million times about,

1110
00:26:36.170 --> 00:26:38.800
about diversifying and understanding other opportunities.

1111
00:26:39.260 --> 00:26:40.390
It is important.

1112
00:26:40.760 --> 00:26:41.070
Take,

1113
00:26:41.440 --> 00:26:43.170
look back at those steps that we just went through.

1114
00:26:43.520 --> 00:26:43.990
Take a moment,

1115
00:26:44.160 --> 00:26:45.390
look at your portfolio,

1116
00:26:45.550 --> 00:26:46.180
don't freak out.

1117
00:26:46.240 --> 00:26:46.720
You got plenty of,

1118
00:26:46.880 --> 00:26:49.030
you got till October 9th before predictable panic day.

1119
00:26:49.120 --> 00:26:49.790
Don't freak out.

1120
00:26:49.960 --> 00:26:51.010
Just look at those things,

1121
00:26:51.240 --> 00:26:52.550
look for those opportunities,

1122
00:26:52.720 --> 00:26:56.390
and take a time to maybe rebalance or at least understand what your balance is,

1123
00:26:56.470 --> 00:26:58.660
cause a lot of times you get stuff in there and you don't even realize.

1124
00:26:59.040 --> 00:27:00.100
Take that time now.

1125
00:27:00.360 --> 00:27:01.270
Things are gonna change,

1126
00:27:01.430 --> 00:27:02.070
things will move,

1127
00:27:02.240 --> 00:27:03.540
but you still have time

1128
00:27:03.880 --> 00:27:05.100
before it is time

1129
00:27:05.240 --> 00:27:05.770
to hit

1130
00:27:05.880 --> 00:27:06.710
the panic button.

1131
00:27:26.620 --> 00:27:31.280
We are 41 days away from the election and we do a different candidate

1132
00:27:31.280 --> 00:27:34.950
in a different race every day that we like that we think is a uh

1133
00:27:35.080 --> 00:27:38.920
worth your consideration for potential prediction market investment,

1134
00:27:39.270 --> 00:27:39.540
uh,

1135
00:27:39.670 --> 00:27:40.290
and

1136
00:27:40.470 --> 00:27:41.650
kind of building on the theme today.

1137
00:27:41.670 --> 00:27:41.780
I,

1138
00:27:41.870 --> 00:27:46.010
I mentioned look for um some Democrats that you think might have

1139
00:27:46.350 --> 00:27:48.350
uh a little bit of uh uh

1140
00:27:48.550 --> 00:27:49.340
of upside

1141
00:27:49.750 --> 00:27:53.330
to begin taking a position on to to to measure it as we go.

1142
00:27:53.720 --> 00:27:53.990
Um,

1143
00:27:54.120 --> 00:27:55.590
and that's one of the ways that I'm kind of

1144
00:27:55.590 --> 00:27:58.190
trying to prepare myself for what might happen here in,

1145
00:27:58.280 --> 00:27:59.140
in a few weeks.

1146
00:27:59.680 --> 00:27:59.790
Uh,

1147
00:27:59.960 --> 00:28:00.750
so our candidate today,

1148
00:28:00.810 --> 00:28:03.710
41 days until the election,

1149
00:28:04.100 --> 00:28:04.420
and,

1150
00:28:04.440 --> 00:28:04.550
uh,

1151
00:28:04.640 --> 00:28:07.260
our candidate today comes from the.

1152
00:28:08.320 --> 00:28:08.990
From the north,

1153
00:28:09.160 --> 00:28:09.510
yes,

1154
00:28:09.720 --> 00:28:11.180
it is Mary Peltola.

1155
00:28:11.400 --> 00:28:13.450
She is a Democrat from Alaska

1156
00:28:14.240 --> 00:28:16.510
running for Senate against Dan Sullivan,

1157
00:28:16.600 --> 00:28:17.420
the Republican

1158
00:28:17.880 --> 00:28:18.180
there.

1159
00:28:18.200 --> 00:28:20.030
Now the candidate countdown does not mean that I

1160
00:28:20.030 --> 00:28:22.190
like the candidate or want the candidate to win.

1161
00:28:22.320 --> 00:28:23.980
That is not what we do here.

1162
00:28:24.320 --> 00:28:24.550
Um,

1163
00:28:24.680 --> 00:28:26.210
I will tell you

1164
00:28:26.440 --> 00:28:27.310
what my preference is,

1165
00:28:27.360 --> 00:28:30.830
and I will say my preference is certainly would be Republican control of the Senate.

1166
00:28:31.040 --> 00:28:34.070
Mary Peltola though is a pretty good candidate in Alaska.

1167
00:28:34.490 --> 00:28:36.360
And uh this is a real danger.

1168
00:28:36.400 --> 00:28:37.470
You might say Alaska.

1169
00:28:37.920 --> 00:28:38.190
Come on,

1170
00:28:38.240 --> 00:28:38.830
that's crazy.

1171
00:28:39.080 --> 00:28:41.430
Republicans always win in Alaska,

1172
00:28:41.480 --> 00:28:41.790
right?

1173
00:28:42.990 --> 00:28:43.080
Well,

1174
00:28:43.190 --> 00:28:43.940
recently I've done well,

1175
00:28:44.110 --> 00:28:45.010
particularly in presidential,

1176
00:28:45.190 --> 00:28:45.340
uh,

1177
00:28:45.550 --> 00:28:46.030
elections.

1178
00:28:46.230 --> 00:28:46.300
Uh,

1179
00:28:46.390 --> 00:28:47.620
we're gonna get into the details here in a minute,

1180
00:28:47.670 --> 00:28:49.180
but I wanna show you the polling as of late,

1181
00:28:49.230 --> 00:28:50.100
and you might look at this and say,

1182
00:28:50.190 --> 00:28:50.300
OK,

1183
00:28:50.390 --> 00:28:50.540
well,

1184
00:28:50.620 --> 00:28:51.970
there's some good polling here for

1185
00:28:52.150 --> 00:28:52.500
Sullivan,

1186
00:28:52.520 --> 00:28:52.940
and that's true.

1187
00:28:53.030 --> 00:28:53.770
This is not a,

1188
00:28:54.030 --> 00:28:54.080
uh,

1189
00:28:54.190 --> 00:28:54.860
a definite,

1190
00:28:54.920 --> 00:28:55.730
I would say,

1191
00:28:56.030 --> 00:28:56.320
um,

1192
00:28:56.510 --> 00:28:57.010
as far as,

1193
00:28:57.110 --> 00:28:57.180
uh,

1194
00:28:57.350 --> 00:28:57.510
I mean,

1195
00:28:57.550 --> 00:28:59.220
Dan Sullivan has a shot to win this race.

1196
00:29:00.360 --> 00:29:01.540
There's a lot of asterisks by it.

1197
00:29:01.560 --> 00:29:02.390
I'm gonna go through this in a minute.

1198
00:29:02.480 --> 00:29:03.150
Here's the polling.

1199
00:29:03.220 --> 00:29:03.350
Um,

1200
00:29:03.480 --> 00:29:06.770
most recent poll from coefficient does have Sullivan up by 2.

1201
00:29:07.460 --> 00:29:07.590
you,

1202
00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:08.690
you see 3 polls in a row,

1203
00:29:09.280 --> 00:29:10.390
the Times broke them out that way,

1204
00:29:10.480 --> 00:29:11.310
but it's the same poll,

1205
00:29:11.410 --> 00:29:11.510
uh,

1206
00:29:11.680 --> 00:29:12.310
coefficient,

1207
00:29:12.570 --> 00:29:12.580
uh,

1208
00:29:12.680 --> 00:29:13.150
23,

1209
00:29:13.200 --> 00:29:13.690
and 5,

1210
00:29:13.880 --> 00:29:14.950
depending on how they break it,

1211
00:29:15.040 --> 00:29:15.110
uh,

1212
00:29:15.280 --> 00:29:15.690
out.

1213
00:29:15.880 --> 00:29:18.440
Alaska Survey Research had Peltola up by 5.

1214
00:29:18.920 --> 00:29:19.750
Fabrizio,

1215
00:29:19.890 --> 00:29:19.900
uh,

1216
00:29:20.080 --> 00:29:20.270
had,

1217
00:29:20.440 --> 00:29:20.550
uh,

1218
00:29:20.720 --> 00:29:22.310
Peltola up by 7.

1219
00:29:22.880 --> 00:29:23.380
And then,

1220
00:29:23.520 --> 00:29:23.630
uh,

1221
00:29:23.760 --> 00:29:25.940
Alaska survey research previous poll

1222
00:29:26.140 --> 00:29:27.430
before that going back to,

1223
00:29:27.480 --> 00:29:27.600
uh,

1224
00:29:27.640 --> 00:29:28.440
late August

1225
00:29:28.680 --> 00:29:30.070
had Peltola up by 1.

1226
00:29:30.240 --> 00:29:32.750
The final round thing is key to this discussion here

1227
00:29:32.750 --> 00:29:33.790
and we're gonna get to that here in a second,

1228
00:29:33.880 --> 00:29:34.060
but

1229
00:29:35.100 --> 00:29:36.770
If you don't know who Mary Paltola is,

1230
00:29:37.030 --> 00:29:37.600
she is,

1231
00:29:37.740 --> 00:29:38.090
um,

1232
00:29:38.300 --> 00:29:41.820
a known figure in the state and has already won statewide

1233
00:29:42.020 --> 00:29:42.920
in Alaska.

1234
00:29:43.300 --> 00:29:44.410
Not always easy to do,

1235
00:29:44.500 --> 00:29:45.690
and that's because of their house seat,

1236
00:29:45.790 --> 00:29:46.580
their at-large

1237
00:29:46.680 --> 00:29:47.170
House seat.

1238
00:29:47.220 --> 00:29:47.850
They've got one,

1239
00:29:47.970 --> 00:29:48.930
so it's the whole state,

1240
00:29:49.180 --> 00:29:49.250
uh,

1241
00:29:49.380 --> 00:29:49.890
and she won,

1242
00:29:50.020 --> 00:29:50.290
she won,

1243
00:29:50.380 --> 00:29:50.410
uh,

1244
00:29:50.540 --> 00:29:50.710
both,

1245
00:29:50.820 --> 00:29:50.830
uh,

1246
00:29:50.970 --> 00:29:51.090
uh,

1247
00:29:51.120 --> 00:29:51.620
uh,

1248
00:29:51.680 --> 00:29:51.700
uh,

1249
00:29:51.740 --> 00:29:53.000
elections in 2022.

1250
00:29:53.440 --> 00:29:54.710
She won the regular election,

1251
00:29:54.800 --> 00:29:56.470
so she won a special election,

1252
00:29:56.560 --> 00:29:57.890
and then she won the regular election.

1253
00:29:57.920 --> 00:29:59.770
In the regular election in 2022,

1254
00:30:00.040 --> 00:30:02.250
she won with 54.9%

1255
00:30:02.440 --> 00:30:03.570
of the vote.

1256
00:30:03.840 --> 00:30:03.950
Uh,

1257
00:30:04.160 --> 00:30:06.830
she has consistently in all of her races,

1258
00:30:06.960 --> 00:30:08.830
even the one she lost in 2024.

1259
00:30:09.440 --> 00:30:13.670
Has outperformed uh the Democratic Party by a wide margin.

1260
00:30:13.880 --> 00:30:15.130
This is the type of candidate

1261
00:30:15.240 --> 00:30:17.300
that Democrats love in these elections

1262
00:30:17.620 --> 00:30:18.420
because they're not,

1263
00:30:18.680 --> 00:30:19.870
it's not a run of the mill,

1264
00:30:20.000 --> 00:30:20.260
hey,

1265
00:30:20.280 --> 00:30:21.820
you're running just like whatever the

1266
00:30:22.120 --> 00:30:23.130
whatever the climate is.

1267
00:30:23.280 --> 00:30:25.390
She's outperformed the climate every single time.

1268
00:30:26.000 --> 00:30:26.860
That she has run

1269
00:30:27.060 --> 00:30:27.750
now in 2024,

1270
00:30:27.800 --> 00:30:29.140
the climate was very Republican,

1271
00:30:29.320 --> 00:30:30.620
or at least pretty Republican,

1272
00:30:30.800 --> 00:30:32.290
and it wasn't enough for her to hold on,

1273
00:30:32.400 --> 00:30:32.660
but

1274
00:30:32.840 --> 00:30:34.100
she in 2024,

1275
00:30:34.360 --> 00:30:34.470
uh,

1276
00:30:34.680 --> 00:30:36.380
Trump won by 13 points.

1277
00:30:36.680 --> 00:30:39.570
Peltola only lost by 2.6,

1278
00:30:40.000 --> 00:30:40.420
so

1279
00:30:40.800 --> 00:30:42.800
outperforming the Democratic Party

1280
00:30:43.000 --> 00:30:45.780
in a state that's not necessarily wonderful for Democrats.

1281
00:30:46.080 --> 00:30:46.460
Um,

1282
00:30:46.800 --> 00:30:46.950
the,

1283
00:30:47.040 --> 00:30:50.830
the breakdown of Alaska as far as its voters go is really interesting.

1284
00:30:51.200 --> 00:30:51.700
It is,

1285
00:30:51.920 --> 00:30:52.330
uh,

1286
00:30:52.600 --> 00:30:53.470
it's unlike a,

1287
00:30:54.040 --> 00:30:54.470
of course,

1288
00:30:54.560 --> 00:30:55.060
right.

1289
00:30:56.120 --> 00:30:56.270
You know,

1290
00:30:56.360 --> 00:30:57.750
Alaska's different than the other states.

1291
00:30:57.840 --> 00:30:57.910
Yeah,

1292
00:30:58.040 --> 00:30:58.420
I know,

1293
00:30:58.680 --> 00:30:58.950
Stu.

1294
00:30:59.040 --> 00:30:59.580
I got it.

1295
00:30:59.680 --> 00:30:59.830
I mean,

1296
00:30:59.920 --> 00:31:00.350
Alaska,

1297
00:31:00.400 --> 00:31:00.630
it's,

1298
00:31:00.650 --> 00:31:00.750
uh,

1299
00:31:00.840 --> 00:31:01.390
a really big one.

1300
00:31:01.440 --> 00:31:02.450
It's the biggest one we got.

1301
00:31:02.600 --> 00:31:03.030
It's in,

1302
00:31:03.150 --> 00:31:03.630
it's kind of,

1303
00:31:03.760 --> 00:31:05.990
actually kind of seems like it's connected to Canada.

1304
00:31:06.200 --> 00:31:07.180
It's in the middle of nowhere.

1305
00:31:07.200 --> 00:31:08.060
It's really cold.

1306
00:31:08.200 --> 00:31:09.990
There's not roads to most of the places.

1307
00:31:10.080 --> 00:31:10.840
That's Alaska.

1308
00:31:10.880 --> 00:31:11.620
You know that part.

1309
00:31:12.420 --> 00:31:14.290
But the political breakdown is interesting.

1310
00:31:14.460 --> 00:31:16.100
Where most states you have,

1311
00:31:16.300 --> 00:31:16.770
I don't know,

1312
00:31:17.100 --> 00:31:20.370
roughly a third maybe of each between Republicans,

1313
00:31:20.620 --> 00:31:20.820
Democrats,

1314
00:31:20.860 --> 00:31:21.600
and Independents,

1315
00:31:21.700 --> 00:31:22.960
it's not really like that

1316
00:31:23.180 --> 00:31:23.810
in Alaska.

1317
00:31:24.100 --> 00:31:27.240
Only about 24% of registered voters have registered

1318
00:31:27.520 --> 00:31:28.480
between Republicans

1319
00:31:28.620 --> 00:31:29.480
or Democrats.

1320
00:31:29.780 --> 00:31:31.210
That breaks down in favor,

1321
00:31:31.420 --> 00:31:31.570
uh,

1322
00:31:31.740 --> 00:31:32.060
uh,

1323
00:31:32.140 --> 00:31:32.810
uh,

1324
00:31:33.220 --> 00:31:33.490
excuse me,

1325
00:31:33.530 --> 00:31:34.410
it's 36% total,

1326
00:31:34.500 --> 00:31:35.510
24% Republicans,

1327
00:31:35.540 --> 00:31:35.970
12%.

1328
00:31:36.270 --> 00:31:36.400
Democrats,

1329
00:31:36.490 --> 00:31:36.750
so

1330
00:31:37.000 --> 00:31:39.800
it is a big advantage for Republicans,

1331
00:31:39.960 --> 00:31:40.520
but as you know,

1332
00:31:40.650 --> 00:31:42.550
there's a lot of people I'm not talking about there.

1333
00:31:42.810 --> 00:31:46.110
Over 60% of people are either unaffiliated

1334
00:31:46.210 --> 00:31:47.280
or independent

1335
00:31:47.490 --> 00:31:48.240
in the state.

1336
00:31:48.450 --> 00:31:50.690
So you have a massively independent electorate

1337
00:31:50.840 --> 00:31:53.000
that does tend to lean to the right,

1338
00:31:53.210 --> 00:31:54.520
but not overwhelmingly.

1339
00:31:54.610 --> 00:31:55.000
These are other,

1340
00:31:55.090 --> 00:31:57.780
there are other states where there's a much better case for just general

1341
00:31:58.000 --> 00:31:59.970
red winning no matter what's going on.

1342
00:32:00.430 --> 00:32:00.830
Um,

1343
00:32:01.250 --> 00:32:02.170
Dan Sullivan

1344
00:32:02.310 --> 00:32:03.690
is a senator currently.

1345
00:32:03.930 --> 00:32:04.800
His approval rating.

1346
00:32:05.520 --> 00:32:06.340
Isn't great.

1347
00:32:06.800 --> 00:32:08.250
It's about 38%.

1348
00:32:08.420 --> 00:32:08.510
Now,

1349
00:32:08.560 --> 00:32:10.430
that's a little bit better than some of the polling

1350
00:32:10.430 --> 00:32:12.360
we told you about earlier on in the show,

1351
00:32:12.680 --> 00:32:14.070
but 38% isn't great.

1352
00:32:14.150 --> 00:32:15.340
He's in the bottom,

1353
00:32:16.200 --> 00:32:17.190
I'd say quintile,

1354
00:32:17.360 --> 00:32:18.140
bottom fifth

1355
00:32:18.400 --> 00:32:18.710
of,

1356
00:32:18.880 --> 00:32:19.110
uh,

1357
00:32:19.320 --> 00:32:20.990
senators as far as approval rating goes,

1358
00:32:21.080 --> 00:32:22.070
not toward the top.

1359
00:32:22.440 --> 00:32:22.590
Um,

1360
00:32:22.720 --> 00:32:24.200
he's down there toward the bottom,

1361
00:32:24.320 --> 00:32:25.150
not at the bottom.

1362
00:32:25.280 --> 00:32:27.600
He's not the worst approval ratings in America,

1363
00:32:27.920 --> 00:32:28.870
but he's toward the bottom,

1364
00:32:29.000 --> 00:32:29.430
bottom third,

1365
00:32:29.560 --> 00:32:30.080
bottom fourth,

1366
00:32:30.240 --> 00:32:30.680
bottom fifth,

1367
00:32:30.760 --> 00:32:31.270
somewhere in there.

1368
00:32:32.240 --> 00:32:32.580
Um,

1369
00:32:32.710 --> 00:32:33.580
so that's not great.

1370
00:32:33.710 --> 00:32:34.900
47% disapprove,

1371
00:32:34.990 --> 00:32:36.160
so he's a -9

1372
00:32:36.510 --> 00:32:37.450
on that one.

1373
00:32:38.630 --> 00:32:39.130
he is,

1374
00:32:39.240 --> 00:32:39.640
uh,

1375
00:32:39.830 --> 00:32:40.340
you know,

1376
00:32:40.630 --> 00:32:40.700
again,

1377
00:32:40.750 --> 00:32:42.650
that doesn't mean that he can't win in Alaska,

1378
00:32:43.190 --> 00:32:45.140
but he doesn't have like a super clear path.

1379
00:32:45.270 --> 00:32:47.220
Like it's not like easy for Dan Sullivan,

1380
00:32:47.310 --> 00:32:47.340
uh,

1381
00:32:47.510 --> 00:32:47.990
to win.

1382
00:32:48.390 --> 00:32:48.500
Uh,

1383
00:32:48.590 --> 00:32:49.700
the polling has been very close,

1384
00:32:49.750 --> 00:32:50.850
as we talked about.

1385
00:32:50.990 --> 00:32:52.180
Peltola is a,

1386
00:32:52.310 --> 00:32:54.370
a good crossover candidate there.

1387
00:32:54.560 --> 00:32:55.540
She won in 2022,

1388
00:32:55.630 --> 00:32:56.840
she won in 2024,

1389
00:32:57.030 --> 00:32:57.700
and she's raising,

1390
00:32:57.790 --> 00:32:58.620
raising a lot of money.

1391
00:32:58.710 --> 00:33:00.820
She's raised more overall than Sullivan.

1392
00:33:01.130 --> 00:33:01.310
Um,

1393
00:33:01.520 --> 00:33:04.630
Sullivan has been a little bit more frugal with his spending so far,

1394
00:33:04.760 --> 00:33:06.510
so he has a little bit more cash on hand,

1395
00:33:06.720 --> 00:33:08.230
but this isn't one of those races where you're gonna see,

1396
00:33:08.330 --> 00:33:08.630
oh gosh,

1397
00:33:08.680 --> 00:33:09.790
it's a Republican state,

1398
00:33:09.920 --> 00:33:11.510
the Republican candidate gonna outspend the,

1399
00:33:11.640 --> 00:33:11.750
uh,

1400
00:33:12.160 --> 00:33:12.990
Democrat by 10 to 1.

1401
00:33:13.240 --> 00:33:14.180
That's not happening here.

1402
00:33:14.320 --> 00:33:16.420
She'll probably wind up spending more than he does,

1403
00:33:16.800 --> 00:33:17.270
um.

1404
00:33:18.820 --> 00:33:20.220
If you wanna make the case for Sullivan,

1405
00:33:20.500 --> 00:33:21.970
let's make a case against our position as

1406
00:33:21.970 --> 00:33:23.900
we'd like to do here on Candidate Countdown.

1407
00:33:24.420 --> 00:33:25.530
Alaska is still a red state,

1408
00:33:25.700 --> 00:33:27.110
fundamentally leans to the right.

1409
00:33:27.340 --> 00:33:27.410
Uh,

1410
00:33:27.540 --> 00:33:29.650
Sullivan has already won statewide twice.

1411
00:33:29.820 --> 00:33:31.330
Although I will say in 2014,

1412
00:33:31.460 --> 00:33:32.720
which was a good year

1413
00:33:32.900 --> 00:33:33.920
for Republicans,

1414
00:33:34.420 --> 00:33:35.450
he barely won,

1415
00:33:35.700 --> 00:33:35.730
uh,

1416
00:33:35.900 --> 00:33:36.810
by about 2 points.

1417
00:33:36.940 --> 00:33:39.060
2020 won easily by about 13.

1418
00:33:39.540 --> 00:33:40.640
Republicans do have that,

1419
00:33:40.740 --> 00:33:40.810
uh,

1420
00:33:41.100 --> 00:33:42.010
registration advantage.

1421
00:33:42.100 --> 00:33:43.920
It's about 70,000 votes.

1422
00:33:44.420 --> 00:33:45.890
So 70,000 votes is,

1423
00:33:45.940 --> 00:33:46.240
is a,

1424
00:33:46.260 --> 00:33:46.810
is a note.

1425
00:33:46.860 --> 00:33:47.170
It's a,

1426
00:33:47.220 --> 00:33:47.410
it's,

1427
00:33:47.460 --> 00:33:48.280
it's serious,

1428
00:33:48.380 --> 00:33:49.660
but it's not necessarily,

1429
00:33:49.940 --> 00:33:50.400
um,

1430
00:33:50.620 --> 00:33:53.180
a massive number that you might see in another state

1431
00:33:53.410 --> 00:33:56.030
with that type of margin of kind of 2 to 1.

1432
00:33:56.350 --> 00:33:56.650
Um,

1433
00:33:56.860 --> 00:33:58.160
recent polling has Sullivan ahead,

1434
00:33:58.180 --> 00:33:58.780
as I mentioned,

1435
00:33:58.930 --> 00:33:59.780
some of it does.

1436
00:34:00.100 --> 00:34:00.560
Sullivan,

1437
00:34:00.620 --> 00:34:00.710
uh,

1438
00:34:00.860 --> 00:34:02.250
is financially strong,

1439
00:34:02.820 --> 00:34:04.040
older voters do well,

1440
00:34:04.180 --> 00:34:04.390
uh,

1441
00:34:04.580 --> 00:34:05.370
with Sullivan.

1442
00:34:05.500 --> 00:34:05.560
Uh,

1443
00:34:05.820 --> 00:34:08.370
voters over 50 do lean toward Sullivan,

1444
00:34:08.460 --> 00:34:09.610
so that's a positive.

1445
00:34:10.090 --> 00:34:10.440
Um,

1446
00:34:10.610 --> 00:34:10.790
and,

1447
00:34:10.889 --> 00:34:11.040
uh,

1448
00:34:11.290 --> 00:34:11.440
you know,

1449
00:34:11.500 --> 00:34:12.310
Peltola

1450
00:34:12.489 --> 00:34:13.840
did lose in 2024.

1451
00:34:13.929 --> 00:34:15.020
She can lose in the state,

1452
00:34:15.250 --> 00:34:16.800
although it was a much more Republican year.

1453
00:34:16.900 --> 00:34:18.639
One other nugget I want to give you here on this race,

1454
00:34:18.929 --> 00:34:19.469
or two more.

1455
00:34:19.850 --> 00:34:20.679
One is the system.

1456
00:34:21.500 --> 00:34:23.850
The system is a ranked choice voting system.

1457
00:34:24.610 --> 00:34:26.040
It's a very weird system.

1458
00:34:26.210 --> 00:34:27.280
If you're not from Alaska,

1459
00:34:27.330 --> 00:34:29.360
you probably don't understand it or know about it.

1460
00:34:29.449 --> 00:34:31.750
But basically what they did in the primary was pick

1461
00:34:31.969 --> 00:34:34.630
not the best Republican and Democrat to run against each other,

1462
00:34:34.830 --> 00:34:36.969
but the top 4 candidates of any party.

1463
00:34:37.330 --> 00:34:38.440
And they have the top 4 candidates,

1464
00:34:38.530 --> 00:34:40.159
so 4 candidates will be on the ballot,

1465
00:34:40.370 --> 00:34:42.810
and they will do it in a ranked choice voting style.

1466
00:34:43.250 --> 00:34:44.880
What that means is you can say,

1467
00:34:45.010 --> 00:34:45.120
well,

1468
00:34:45.170 --> 00:34:45.409
I think,

1469
00:34:45.530 --> 00:34:45.639
uh,

1470
00:34:45.770 --> 00:34:46.080
number 1,

1471
00:34:46.170 --> 00:34:46.719
Dan Sullivan,

1472
00:34:46.830 --> 00:34:47.199
#2,

1473
00:34:47.330 --> 00:34:48.050
Mary Peltola,

1474
00:34:48.070 --> 00:34:48.580
3,

1475
00:34:48.690 --> 00:34:49.620
and go through the list.

1476
00:34:49.870 --> 00:34:50.880
You rank them like that.

1477
00:34:51.170 --> 00:34:53.400
When the last place candidate that has no chance of winning.

1478
00:34:53.989 --> 00:34:54.100
Uh,

1479
00:34:54.389 --> 00:34:57.620
is officially eliminated and has no chance to get to 50%.

1480
00:34:57.870 --> 00:34:58.410
They are

1481
00:34:58.550 --> 00:34:59.040
eliminated.

1482
00:34:59.110 --> 00:35:01.070
They get all their votes get redistributed.

1483
00:35:01.190 --> 00:35:02.050
So if you,

1484
00:35:02.310 --> 00:35:02.930
if you had,

1485
00:35:03.030 --> 00:35:03.490
um,

1486
00:35:03.830 --> 00:35:03.980
you know,

1487
00:35:04.030 --> 00:35:06.250
the 4th place candidate as your top choice,

1488
00:35:06.550 --> 00:35:09.660
your vote now goes to your second choice on the ballot.

1489
00:35:10.510 --> 00:35:12.180
And so on and so on and so on.

1490
00:35:12.970 --> 00:35:13.760
Two things about this.

1491
00:35:13.850 --> 00:35:14.440
Number 1,

1492
00:35:14.610 --> 00:35:15.940
there's another guy on the ballot

1493
00:35:16.220 --> 00:35:17.240
named Dan Sullivan.

1494
00:35:17.320 --> 00:35:18.840
There's two Dan Sullivans on the ballot.

1495
00:35:18.970 --> 00:35:20.080
This was done intentionally,

1496
00:35:20.180 --> 00:35:22.530
quite clearly to hurt the main Dan Sullivan.

1497
00:35:22.770 --> 00:35:24.630
I don't know how much effect that will have.

1498
00:35:24.850 --> 00:35:25.000
I mean,

1499
00:35:25.050 --> 00:35:25.460
my

1500
00:35:26.120 --> 00:35:27.820
It's possible it has an effect.

1501
00:35:28.620 --> 00:35:30.810
It's really being talked about a lot in Alaska though,

1502
00:35:30.870 --> 00:35:33.760
so my guess is most voters are not gonna fall

1503
00:35:33.940 --> 00:35:34.530
for this trick,

1504
00:35:34.660 --> 00:35:37.090
but it is a trick and it might pick off 1% of voters,

1505
00:35:37.140 --> 00:35:37.810
and if it does that,

1506
00:35:37.860 --> 00:35:39.990
it could be a big deal in a close race.

1507
00:35:40.460 --> 00:35:40.570
Uh,

1508
00:35:40.740 --> 00:35:41.260
secondarily,

1509
00:35:41.340 --> 00:35:43.160
I think this format overall,

1510
00:35:43.660 --> 00:35:45.490
because there are multiple Republicans on the ballot is

1511
00:35:45.490 --> 00:35:48.210
gonna wind up benefiting at some level Peltola.

1512
00:35:48.500 --> 00:35:48.690
Um,

1513
00:35:48.860 --> 00:35:49.890
this is generally speaking,

1514
00:35:50.020 --> 00:35:50.170
you know,

1515
00:35:50.220 --> 00:35:50.290
I,

1516
00:35:50.340 --> 00:35:50.450
I,

1517
00:35:50.500 --> 00:35:52.210
I hear Republicans all the time saying we shouldn't have the

1518
00:35:52.210 --> 00:35:55.080
system because it always benefits Democrats and like I get it.

1519
00:35:55.530 --> 00:35:58.600
I get why you might not like this system and why you might not want this system,

1520
00:35:58.850 --> 00:35:59.220
but like,

1521
00:35:59.250 --> 00:36:01.750
I think part of this is also just blaming the system

1522
00:36:01.970 --> 00:36:03.430
for the faults of the candidates.

1523
00:36:03.690 --> 00:36:05.470
We all know what the rules of the game are here.

1524
00:36:05.810 --> 00:36:07.440
You've got a ranked choice voting system.

1525
00:36:07.570 --> 00:36:08.670
If you're a Republican candidate,

1526
00:36:08.770 --> 00:36:10.560
you gotta figure out how to win in that environment.

1527
00:36:11.510 --> 00:36:12.170
That's it.

1528
00:36:13.350 --> 00:36:15.330
Play the game based on the rules of the game.

1529
00:36:15.710 --> 00:36:17.730
Don't complain about the game the entire time.

1530
00:36:18.070 --> 00:36:20.240
You gotta play the rules based on the rules of the game.

1531
00:36:20.390 --> 00:36:21.220
So that's another thing.

1532
00:36:21.270 --> 00:36:22.690
And the other thing I'm gonna bring up here

1533
00:36:22.910 --> 00:36:23.340
is,

1534
00:36:23.470 --> 00:36:23.780
uh,

1535
00:36:23.990 --> 00:36:24.730
is

1536
00:36:25.030 --> 00:36:25.780
the gas prices.

1537
00:36:25.870 --> 00:36:27.770
We talked about how damaging that is.

1538
00:36:28.190 --> 00:36:29.370
Diesel is setting a new,

1539
00:36:29.510 --> 00:36:29.660
uh,

1540
00:36:29.790 --> 00:36:30.140
um,

1541
00:36:30.250 --> 00:36:30.540
uh,

1542
00:36:31.390 --> 00:36:32.860
new high every single day,

1543
00:36:32.950 --> 00:36:33.640
basically,

1544
00:36:33.910 --> 00:36:35.470
and we are in a real peak here.

1545
00:36:35.510 --> 00:36:36.900
That doesn't mean it lasts all the way to the election,

1546
00:36:36.990 --> 00:36:38.130
but right now it's a real thing.

1547
00:36:38.920 --> 00:36:40.260
The other thing about this is,

1548
00:36:40.280 --> 00:36:44.420
there is no state in our union that is more dependent on diesel fuel

1549
00:36:44.680 --> 00:36:45.750
than Alaska.

1550
00:36:46.200 --> 00:36:46.870
Let me show you this map,

1551
00:36:46.920 --> 00:36:48.010
this is from Nate Silver,

1552
00:36:48.120 --> 00:36:48.630
he points this,

1553
00:36:48.720 --> 00:36:50.790
I don't think he made this point on Alaska here,

1554
00:36:50.880 --> 00:36:52.470
but Alaska is the highest,

1555
00:36:52.700 --> 00:36:53.990
70%.

1556
00:36:54.350 --> 00:36:55.130
Dependence

1557
00:36:55.270 --> 00:36:57.490
on diesel as opposed to just regular

1558
00:36:57.630 --> 00:36:58.300
gasoline.

1559
00:36:58.390 --> 00:36:58.460
Now,

1560
00:36:58.510 --> 00:36:58.740
of course,

1561
00:36:58.790 --> 00:36:59.220
that makes sense,

1562
00:36:59.270 --> 00:37:00.950
a lot of long hauls in Alaska,

1563
00:37:01.320 --> 00:37:02.420
but that is a massive,

1564
00:37:02.550 --> 00:37:03.580
massive deal,

1565
00:37:03.790 --> 00:37:04.980
and they're facing the,

1566
00:37:05.150 --> 00:37:07.140
they already deal with really high prices in Alaska.

1567
00:37:07.230 --> 00:37:09.170
They're dealing with even more of that right now.

1568
00:37:09.470 --> 00:37:10.020
Scottylicious,

1569
00:37:10.070 --> 00:37:10.620
he's been on the show,

1570
00:37:10.670 --> 00:37:12.980
he's made multiple millions of dollars in prediction markets.

1571
00:37:13.070 --> 00:37:14.010
He's on this race

1572
00:37:14.150 --> 00:37:14.540
as well.

1573
00:37:14.660 --> 00:37:16.340
It's another indicator that it might be a good one.

1574
00:37:16.690 --> 00:37:16.760
Uh,

1575
00:37:16.890 --> 00:37:17.080
he says,

1576
00:37:17.130 --> 00:37:17.630
here's why

1577
00:37:17.930 --> 00:37:20.200
Team Scott Elicious bought a boatload of Peltola,

1578
00:37:20.490 --> 00:37:20.600
uh,

1579
00:37:20.690 --> 00:37:22.110
for Alaska Senate yesterday.

1580
00:37:22.290 --> 00:37:23.320
One candidate quality,

1581
00:37:23.410 --> 00:37:23.800
she's smart,

1582
00:37:23.890 --> 00:37:24.160
proven,

1583
00:37:24.210 --> 00:37:24.840
and well-liked.

1584
00:37:25.010 --> 00:37:25.310
I mean,

1585
00:37:25.610 --> 00:37:25.950
look,

1586
00:37:26.610 --> 00:37:26.760
that,

1587
00:37:26.890 --> 00:37:28.910
that shows in the way she's outperformed these polls.

1588
00:37:29.780 --> 00:37:29.860
Uh,

1589
00:37:30.150 --> 00:37:32.260
and she's outperformed the Democratic Party multiple times.

1590
00:37:32.540 --> 00:37:32.770
2,

1591
00:37:32.940 --> 00:37:35.130
Trump and ours are about as popular as toe fungus.

1592
00:37:35.180 --> 00:37:35.250
Uh,

1593
00:37:35.950 --> 00:37:36.450
some people,

1594
00:37:36.580 --> 00:37:38.130
I will say the media doesn't like even

1595
00:37:38.400 --> 00:37:40.210
actually would prefer toe fungus to Trump,

1596
00:37:40.300 --> 00:37:40.520
but,

1597
00:37:40.660 --> 00:37:40.730
uh,

1598
00:37:40.860 --> 00:37:41.770
you see his point here,

1599
00:37:41.940 --> 00:37:43.320
approval ratings not looking so good.

1600
00:37:43.540 --> 00:37:43.610
Uh,

1601
00:37:43.750 --> 00:37:44.530
romped in the debate.

1602
00:37:45.000 --> 00:37:45.750
Actually see the debate,

1603
00:37:45.840 --> 00:37:45.950
uh,

1604
00:37:46.050 --> 00:37:47.110
so I'll have to take his word for that.

1605
00:37:47.200 --> 00:37:48.290
Independents love her.

1606
00:37:48.440 --> 00:37:49.910
That's very true in Alaska,

1607
00:37:50.120 --> 00:37:52.420
and blue wave price discovery is incoming,

1608
00:37:52.440 --> 00:37:53.990
and you're kind of seeing that in the market.

1609
00:37:54.080 --> 00:37:56.510
You can see the blue wave price discovery incoming in this market.

1610
00:37:56.600 --> 00:37:57.790
Let me show it to you real quick before we

1611
00:37:57.790 --> 00:37:59.550
take a break because we got another segment to do.

1612
00:37:59.640 --> 00:38:00.240
But you see,

1613
00:38:00.520 --> 00:38:01.830
this market is climbing.

1614
00:38:02.080 --> 00:38:02.260
Uh,

1615
00:38:02.400 --> 00:38:03.460
we are seeing this,

1616
00:38:03.520 --> 00:38:03.590
uh,

1617
00:38:03.720 --> 00:38:04.030
go up.

1618
00:38:04.200 --> 00:38:04.390
Mary,

1619
00:38:04.520 --> 00:38:06.510
Mary Peltola is at 78%.

1620
00:38:07.050 --> 00:38:09.160
I don't know what I think the right percentage is.

1621
00:38:09.210 --> 00:38:10.440
I think there's a good chance she wins,

1622
00:38:10.490 --> 00:38:10.660
and,

1623
00:38:10.730 --> 00:38:11.600
and gun to my head,

1624
00:38:11.650 --> 00:38:12.770
I think she's the favorite.

1625
00:38:13.010 --> 00:38:16.950
I have that race as a lean Democrat race if you saw my segment a couple of weeks ago.

1626
00:38:17.410 --> 00:38:18.870
I don't know that she's,

1627
00:38:19.480 --> 00:38:19.490
I,

1628
00:38:19.570 --> 00:38:19.600
I,

1629
00:38:19.850 --> 00:38:20.470
I don't know.

1630
00:38:20.690 --> 00:38:22.760
I don't know that she's a 90% favorite though,

1631
00:38:22.890 --> 00:38:23.230
so.

1632
00:38:23.760 --> 00:38:25.750
A lot of these gains have kind of come up here,

1633
00:38:25.840 --> 00:38:27.830
but if you're looking for something to offset

1634
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:30.510
what could be that Democratic wave if you're not positioned well,

1635
00:38:30.640 --> 00:38:33.350
Peltola might be really interesting because I think she might win even if,

1636
00:38:33.430 --> 00:38:33.630
if,

1637
00:38:33.720 --> 00:38:35.540
if these polls turn back a little bit

1638
00:38:35.800 --> 00:38:37.230
toward Republican candidates.

1639
00:38:37.440 --> 00:38:37.950
Gotta take a break.

1640
00:38:38.000 --> 00:38:38.840
It's a little bit long there,

1641
00:38:38.920 --> 00:38:40.820
but we've got an interesting one coming up for you

1642
00:38:40.950 --> 00:38:41.310
next.

1643
00:38:56.280 --> 00:38:57.740
Let's look at a market that I kinda like.

1644
00:38:57.880 --> 00:38:58.420
That's

1645
00:38:58.790 --> 00:39:00.280
mainly because we're doing a segment called,

1646
00:39:00.400 --> 00:39:00.550
here,

1647
00:39:00.800 --> 00:39:01.670
here's one I kinda like,

1648
00:39:01.760 --> 00:39:03.660
which so it makes sense to fit one in there.

1649
00:39:04.000 --> 00:39:04.110
Uh,

1650
00:39:04.200 --> 00:39:04.700
I wanna go,

1651
00:39:04.790 --> 00:39:05.260
um,

1652
00:39:05.320 --> 00:39:08.230
to something that's kind of taken the internet by storm here and one of

1653
00:39:08.230 --> 00:39:10.030
the things I tell you all the time is don't believe the hype.

1654
00:39:11.270 --> 00:39:12.510
That's not a hard and fast rule though.

1655
00:39:12.750 --> 00:39:13.940
Sometimes you should believe the hype.

1656
00:39:14.110 --> 00:39:14.380
And I,

1657
00:39:14.470 --> 00:39:16.010
that's where I am on this particular,

1658
00:39:16.260 --> 00:39:16.620
uh,

1659
00:39:16.980 --> 00:39:17.370
situation,

1660
00:39:17.390 --> 00:39:19.700
and there's a market position that I think is interesting

1661
00:39:19.870 --> 00:39:20.890
associated with it.

1662
00:39:21.110 --> 00:39:21.460
Um,

1663
00:39:21.670 --> 00:39:22.900
you can see everything.

1664
00:39:23.220 --> 00:39:23.660
The trailer,

1665
00:39:23.790 --> 00:39:25.460
Nathan Fielder lives with Elizabeth Holmes,

1666
00:39:25.550 --> 00:39:28.210
makes her cry and interrogates her husband in documentary.

1667
00:39:28.550 --> 00:39:29.660
If you haven't seen this trailer yet,

1668
00:39:29.750 --> 00:39:30.090
now I,

1669
00:39:30.190 --> 00:39:31.470
I will say it's acquired,

1670
00:39:31.630 --> 00:39:33.050
Nathan Fielder is certainly an acquired taste.

1671
00:39:33.150 --> 00:39:33.980
I love Nathan Fielder.

1672
00:39:34.020 --> 00:39:35.570
I've liked him for since Nathan for You,

1673
00:39:35.980 --> 00:39:36.090
um,

1674
00:39:36.110 --> 00:39:37.660
and some of his stuff even before that.

1675
00:39:38.030 --> 00:39:38.310
Um,

1676
00:39:38.470 --> 00:39:38.680
but,

1677
00:39:38.820 --> 00:39:39.170
uh,

1678
00:39:39.540 --> 00:39:40.410
not everyone loves the guy.

1679
00:39:40.820 --> 00:39:42.130
He's a little awkward and it can be weird,

1680
00:39:42.220 --> 00:39:44.400
but this is getting all sorts of hype online.

1681
00:39:44.580 --> 00:39:45.640
Let me show you a clip

1682
00:39:45.860 --> 00:39:46.490
of the trailer.

1683
00:39:47.380 --> 00:39:51.120
You've never been suspicious that she's ever lied to you?

1684
00:39:51.450 --> 00:39:51.680
No,

1685
00:39:51.950 --> 00:39:52.360
never.

1686
00:39:53.910 --> 00:39:57.260
I still have this weird feeling that there's some things that

1687
00:39:57.430 --> 00:39:58.500
I'm not seeing.

1688
00:39:59.540 --> 00:40:01.250
It's because I don't have anything to hide.

1689
00:40:08.220 --> 00:40:09.090
I know what you're feeling

1690
00:40:10.040 --> 00:40:10.180
No,

1691
00:40:10.200 --> 00:40:10.790
you don't.

1692
00:40:19.350 --> 00:40:19.530
I mean,

1693
00:40:19.580 --> 00:40:22.430
it took me a really long time to

1694
00:40:24.110 --> 00:40:24.850
Be OK

1695
00:40:24.980 --> 00:40:25.530
with

1696
00:40:26.610 --> 00:40:27.310
I'm

1697
00:40:29.390 --> 00:40:30.900
With letting someone see me cry.

1698
00:40:46.870 --> 00:40:47.180
I mean,

1699
00:40:47.360 --> 00:40:47.660
first of all,

1700
00:40:47.710 --> 00:40:48.390
it's

1701
00:40:48.790 --> 00:40:50.740
one of the greatest trailers of all time.

1702
00:40:50.830 --> 00:40:50.940
I,

1703
00:40:50.990 --> 00:40:51.460
I don't know.

1704
00:40:51.510 --> 00:40:51.660
I,

1705
00:40:51.750 --> 00:40:52.210
I,

1706
00:40:52.700 --> 00:40:52.780
I,

1707
00:40:52.870 --> 00:40:53.150
I'm a,

1708
00:40:53.170 --> 00:40:53.540
I'm a,

1709
00:40:53.690 --> 00:40:55.310
a fan of movie trailers generally,

1710
00:40:55.350 --> 00:40:56.300
but that's a great one.

1711
00:40:56.350 --> 00:40:56.510
I mean,

1712
00:40:56.550 --> 00:40:58.290
it comes off almost like it's like a creepy,

1713
00:40:58.430 --> 00:40:59.490
what was that Backrooms?

1714
00:40:59.620 --> 00:41:00.090
Didn't they do that?

1715
00:41:00.110 --> 00:41:01.260
I think it was A24 as well.

1716
00:41:01.350 --> 00:41:02.140
Has the same vibe.

1717
00:41:02.350 --> 00:41:02.620
Anyway,

1718
00:41:02.710 --> 00:41:04.940
it's a documentary about Elizabeth Holmes and

1719
00:41:04.940 --> 00:41:07.210
Nathan Fielder is there talking about that,

1720
00:41:07.710 --> 00:41:07.850
uh,

1721
00:41:07.950 --> 00:41:08.100
you know,

1722
00:41:08.190 --> 00:41:08.940
they're living with them,

1723
00:41:09.110 --> 00:41:10.340
having conversations with Elizabeth Holmes.

1724
00:41:10.400 --> 00:41:11.720
If you don't remember her story,

1725
00:41:12.030 --> 00:41:13.570
it's a fascinating story in and of itself.

1726
00:41:13.790 --> 00:41:14.830
She created this company,

1727
00:41:14.950 --> 00:41:15.420
Theranos.

1728
00:41:15.590 --> 00:41:16.230
She became

1729
00:41:16.580 --> 00:41:16.770
Um,

1730
00:41:16.860 --> 00:41:18.480
this massive celebrity.

1731
00:41:18.970 --> 00:41:20.470
She had huge,

1732
00:41:20.690 --> 00:41:20.840
uh,

1733
00:41:20.960 --> 00:41:23.320
not only celebrities but like government officials

1734
00:41:23.320 --> 00:41:24.870
and all these people on her board.

1735
00:41:25.210 --> 00:41:26.390
She was developing,

1736
00:41:26.490 --> 00:41:26.560
uh,

1737
00:41:26.690 --> 00:41:27.910
this technology to,

1738
00:41:28.010 --> 00:41:28.200
um,

1739
00:41:28.450 --> 00:41:28.750
basically,

1740
00:41:28.890 --> 00:41:29.080
you know,

1741
00:41:29.250 --> 00:41:30.280
I just had to get blood tests,

1742
00:41:30.330 --> 00:41:30.640
uh,

1743
00:41:30.810 --> 00:41:30.980
the,

1744
00:41:31.130 --> 00:41:32.660
the other day because I'm getting old,

1745
00:41:32.970 --> 00:41:33.090
um,

1746
00:41:33.170 --> 00:41:34.010
and then my doctor's like,

1747
00:41:34.050 --> 00:41:34.280
you know,

1748
00:41:34.370 --> 00:41:34.750
uh,

1749
00:41:35.170 --> 00:41:35.520
you don't look.

1750
00:41:35.660 --> 00:41:36.030
So good.

1751
00:41:36.210 --> 00:41:36.320
Uh,

1752
00:41:36.450 --> 00:41:37.800
so I got a bunch of blood tests and,

1753
00:41:37.850 --> 00:41:38.080
uh,

1754
00:41:38.250 --> 00:41:38.880
and it was like she,

1755
00:41:39.250 --> 00:41:41.140
they still got like 900 jugs of,

1756
00:41:41.290 --> 00:41:42.800
of blood out of my veins.

1757
00:41:43.250 --> 00:41:43.370
The,

1758
00:41:43.450 --> 00:41:44.430
the concept was great.

1759
00:41:44.690 --> 00:41:47.220
Theranos basically promised you just get a pinprick,

1760
00:41:47.460 --> 00:41:48.360
very small amount of blood,

1761
00:41:48.410 --> 00:41:50.800
and they could test that blood a million different ways and

1762
00:41:50.800 --> 00:41:52.400
you can get all these results that you might need.

1763
00:41:53.100 --> 00:41:53.530
Unfortunately,

1764
00:41:53.580 --> 00:41:54.920
the technology really didn't work.

1765
00:41:55.060 --> 00:41:55.900
It was kind of BS.

1766
00:41:56.060 --> 00:41:56.570
She sort of,

1767
00:41:56.700 --> 00:41:56.890
you know,

1768
00:41:56.980 --> 00:41:58.450
she's denied a lot of this stuff,

1769
00:41:58.500 --> 00:41:59.370
but basically,

1770
00:41:59.540 --> 00:41:59.610
I,

1771
00:41:59.740 --> 00:41:59.770
I,

1772
00:41:59.860 --> 00:42:00.050
I mean,

1773
00:42:00.100 --> 00:42:01.240
I think she defrauded,

1774
00:42:01.260 --> 00:42:01.540
uh,

1775
00:42:01.620 --> 00:42:02.970
a lot of people out of a lot of money,

1776
00:42:03.100 --> 00:42:04.300
at least that was the accusation.

1777
00:42:04.460 --> 00:42:05.010
Anyway,

1778
00:42:05.300 --> 00:42:08.210
she's kind of known as someone who maybe doesn't tell the truth all that often.

1779
00:42:08.380 --> 00:42:09.250
Nathan Fielder there,

1780
00:42:09.380 --> 00:42:09.490
uh,

1781
00:42:09.670 --> 00:42:10.570
trying to get that out of her.

1782
00:42:10.660 --> 00:42:10.850
He's,

1783
00:42:10.980 --> 00:42:13.010
he will sit through every awkward silence to get

1784
00:42:13.010 --> 00:42:14.600
it and it's gonna be an incredible movie.

1785
00:42:14.780 --> 00:42:15.900
The reason why I bring this up

1786
00:42:16.060 --> 00:42:17.400
on a prediction market context

1787
00:42:17.620 --> 00:42:19.690
is there's a couple of markets tied to this that I wanna bring up.

1788
00:42:19.780 --> 00:42:19.890
Um,

1789
00:42:19.980 --> 00:42:22.410
let me bring up the Oscar nominees for Best Documentary Film.

1790
00:42:23.090 --> 00:42:24.390
Now this.

1791
00:42:26.730 --> 00:42:27.960
It's at 79 right now.

1792
00:42:28.050 --> 00:42:29.150
I think that's a value.

1793
00:42:29.570 --> 00:42:32.080
I can't imagine this movie not getting a nomination.

1794
00:42:32.130 --> 00:42:33.080
It may not win.

1795
00:42:33.170 --> 00:42:33.320
I,

1796
00:42:33.410 --> 00:42:34.760
I kinda like the win market too.

1797
00:42:34.850 --> 00:42:36.010
I don't remember what that was at,

1798
00:42:36.290 --> 00:42:37.800
but like I kinda like the win market too.

1799
00:42:37.920 --> 00:42:40.400
A nomination I really like at 79%.

1800
00:42:41.250 --> 00:42:41.600
You know,

1801
00:42:41.890 --> 00:42:42.200
the,

1802
00:42:42.370 --> 00:42:44.840
the critics love Nathan Fielder.

1803
00:42:45.130 --> 00:42:46.120
They love his stuff.

1804
00:42:46.290 --> 00:42:47.800
He's a critical darling.

1805
00:42:48.050 --> 00:42:50.110
He's out there doing really unique things.

1806
00:42:50.250 --> 00:42:51.630
Everybody's talking about this.

1807
00:42:51.730 --> 00:42:53.120
When people talk about a documentary,

1808
00:42:53.210 --> 00:42:54.640
which is really rare,

1809
00:42:54.800 --> 00:42:56.790
it usually does get nominations.

1810
00:42:57.050 --> 00:42:57.550
Um,

1811
00:42:57.810 --> 00:42:58.840
there is actually one,

1812
00:42:59.330 --> 00:43:00.310
a category for this,

1813
00:43:00.410 --> 00:43:01.250
for will it get a,

1814
00:43:01.270 --> 00:43:04.210
a Best Picture nomination that's only happened 3 times in history,

1815
00:43:04.330 --> 00:43:05.670
so it's super rare.

1816
00:43:06.250 --> 00:43:06.760
But I'm like,

1817
00:43:06.850 --> 00:43:07.790
I might even

1818
00:43:07.930 --> 00:43:08.910
put a flyer on that.

1819
00:43:08.970 --> 00:43:09.440
I don't know.

1820
00:43:09.570 --> 00:43:10.390
That's where I am.

1821
00:43:10.490 --> 00:43:12.130
I haven't done massive amounts of research.

1822
00:43:12.250 --> 00:43:12.440
This is,

1823
00:43:12.530 --> 00:43:13.280
here's what I kinda like.

1824
00:43:13.340 --> 00:43:14.190
It's just something I saw,

1825
00:43:14.450 --> 00:43:15.320
I'm kind of interested in,

1826
00:43:15.530 --> 00:43:17.030
taking a little small position on it.

1827
00:43:17.490 --> 00:43:18.750
I think there's good value there

1828
00:43:18.890 --> 00:43:22.080
on Nathan Fielder's new documentary for Best Picture or for Best,

1829
00:43:22.130 --> 00:43:22.310
uh,

1830
00:43:22.450 --> 00:43:23.700
Documentary nomination and who knows,

1831
00:43:23.770 --> 00:43:24.630
maybe a little bit more.

1832
00:43:24.810 --> 00:43:25.320
Back in a second.

1833
00:43:34.570 --> 00:43:35.740
And as we're looking at the,

1834
00:43:35.970 --> 00:43:36.190
the,

1835
00:43:36.210 --> 00:43:36.510
uh,

1836
00:43:36.530 --> 00:43:37.600
live feed of that market,

1837
00:43:37.650 --> 00:43:38.480
you could see it jumping.

1838
00:43:38.610 --> 00:43:38.920
People,

1839
00:43:39.050 --> 00:43:39.240
you know,

1840
00:43:39.330 --> 00:43:40.290
this is why people love,

1841
00:43:40.330 --> 00:43:40.510
uh,

1842
00:43:40.530 --> 00:43:40.830
the

1843
00:43:41.200 --> 00:43:41.840
live stream.

1844
00:43:41.910 --> 00:43:42.110
Um,

1845
00:43:42.370 --> 00:43:45.000
you get that as part of your predictable show premium subscription.

1846
00:43:45.020 --> 00:43:47.700
You watch the show taping live and you can get in these markets a little bit early.

1847
00:43:48.170 --> 00:43:48.300
Uh,

1848
00:43:48.450 --> 00:43:50.000
and take advantage of that opportunity.

1849
00:43:50.170 --> 00:43:50.240
Uh,

1850
00:43:50.330 --> 00:43:51.440
it's at predictableShow.com.

1851
00:43:51.530 --> 00:43:52.290
We'd love you to join us there.

1852
00:43:52.350 --> 00:43:53.370
We have great tools for you.

1853
00:43:53.490 --> 00:43:55.850
Every pick that I have in prediction markets is there.

1854
00:43:56.210 --> 00:43:56.600
We have,

1855
00:43:56.690 --> 00:43:56.850
uh,

1856
00:43:57.010 --> 00:43:58.880
all the states broken down with the,

1857
00:43:58.980 --> 00:43:58.990
uh,

1858
00:43:59.090 --> 00:43:59.720
the PMC,

1859
00:43:59.770 --> 00:44:01.520
the predictable midterm consensus.

1860
00:44:01.810 --> 00:44:01.980
Um,

1861
00:44:02.170 --> 00:44:03.360
it's an election model that,

1862
00:44:03.520 --> 00:44:03.560
you know,

1863
00:44:03.730 --> 00:44:05.220
describes everything that's going on

1864
00:44:05.420 --> 00:44:05.560
in,

1865
00:44:05.650 --> 00:44:06.720
in data and in the elections.

1866
00:44:06.850 --> 00:44:07.600
There's tons of stuff there,

1867
00:44:07.770 --> 00:44:08.400
a million tools.

1868
00:44:08.450 --> 00:44:09.520
Just go to predictableShow.com,

1869
00:44:09.690 --> 00:44:09.960
play with it.

1870
00:44:10.010 --> 00:44:11.430
You're gonna find a lot of cool things.

1871
00:44:11.580 --> 00:44:14.590
If you're interested in elections or if you're interested in prediction markets,

1872
00:44:14.820 --> 00:44:15.470
you're gonna love it.

1873
00:44:15.690 --> 00:44:16.200
We'll see you tomorrow.