WEBVTT 0 00:00:00.160 --> 00:00:02.510 The People's Liberation Army in China closely 1 00:00:02.510 --> 00:00:04.630 observed the United States war with Iran, 2 00:00:04.760 --> 00:00:08.510 and they've taken away some very surprising lessons that I didn't expect. 3 00:00:08.720 --> 00:00:12.780 But by pouring through and translating Chinese military expert writings, 4 00:00:12.880 --> 00:00:16.059 we're able to figure out exactly what China learned from the war. 5 00:00:16.280 --> 00:00:17.750 They saw it as the closest thing that 6 00:00:17.750 --> 00:00:20.480 they're ever gonna get to a live-fire experiment. 7 00:00:20.680 --> 00:00:21.500 We all got to 8 00:00:21.660 --> 00:00:23.800 beta test World War Three early access, 9 00:00:23.920 --> 00:00:25.840 but even during the 2025 American, 10 00:00:25.920 --> 00:00:27.620 Operation Midnight Hammer, 11 00:00:27.880 --> 00:00:29.950 where they bombed Iran's nuclear facilities, 12 00:00:30.120 --> 00:00:32.910 PLA Daily was writing their lessons learned. 13 00:00:33.080 --> 00:00:34.660 PLA Daily is kind of like 14 00:00:34.760 --> 00:00:37.790 a Chinese state-run outlet like America's RAND 15 00:00:37.790 --> 00:00:40.270 Corporation mixed with Stars and Stripes. 16 00:00:40.400 --> 00:00:43.100 But the Chinese military experts examined everything 17 00:00:43.120 --> 00:00:46.110 from the American stealth strikes and intelligence networks 18 00:00:46.110 --> 00:00:48.270 to Iran's own use of mixed missiles 19 00:00:48.270 --> 00:00:51.430 and drone barrages against America's air defense. 20 00:00:53.650 --> 00:00:55.960 So the Chinese authors wrote about how 21 00:00:55.960 --> 00:00:59.110 effective they believe the American B-2 bombers were 22 00:00:59.290 --> 00:01:03.390 in combination with the F-35 escort team that went along with them. 23 00:01:03.630 --> 00:01:04.440 Game recognize, 24 00:01:04.569 --> 00:01:04.840 game, 25 00:01:05.209 --> 00:01:05.680 respect. 26 00:01:05.890 --> 00:01:09.390 Then shortly after the war in Iran started in 2026, 27 00:01:09.650 --> 00:01:13.670 Chinese PLA writers were reporting already on April 13th, 28 00:01:13.920 --> 00:01:17.530 the PLA Daily published a major analysis titled roughly, 29 00:01:17.600 --> 00:01:21.510 The error of all domain intelligent victory is accelerating. 30 00:01:21.730 --> 00:01:22.380 So in it, 31 00:01:22.550 --> 00:01:24.820 these Chinese writers from the Academy of 32 00:01:24.820 --> 00:01:27.300 Military Sciences Institute of War Studies, 33 00:01:27.590 --> 00:01:29.890 which is kind of like their version of a military think tank, 34 00:01:30.150 --> 00:01:32.930 was writing about the lessons learned. 35 00:01:33.110 --> 00:01:34.960 So we know China is lurking in the background, 36 00:01:35.150 --> 00:01:37.740 watching and drawing lessons from these conflicts. 37 00:01:38.070 --> 00:01:41.460 It explicitly studied the US campaign in Iran operation. 38 00:01:41.580 --> 00:01:42.470 Epic Fury 39 00:01:42.610 --> 00:01:44.370 and argued that for the first time ever, 40 00:01:44.570 --> 00:01:46.670 AI was changing warfare 41 00:01:46.810 --> 00:01:49.190 from a human-led linear kill chain 42 00:01:49.330 --> 00:01:53.120 into an algorithm-led network closed loop kill chain. 43 00:01:53.330 --> 00:01:56.390 The kill chain has now entered the software update phase. 44 00:01:56.730 --> 00:02:00.150 Kind of like how we keep hearing about how the US military needs to 45 00:02:00.410 --> 00:02:04.030 keep track and update their progress based on the war in Ukraine, 46 00:02:04.370 --> 00:02:05.400 Chinese military. 47 00:02:05.600 --> 00:02:06.460 Defense writers 48 00:02:06.590 --> 00:02:09.650 talk about how they need to update their AI technology 49 00:02:09.949 --> 00:02:11.990 to match what America did in Iran. 50 00:02:12.190 --> 00:02:12.370 So, 51 00:02:12.470 --> 00:02:14.260 I have to hand it to our Chinese counterparts. 52 00:02:14.390 --> 00:02:15.930 They write really good essays, 53 00:02:16.110 --> 00:02:17.780 and if I gave them anything under an A plus, 54 00:02:17.870 --> 00:02:18.740 I know they would get upset. 55 00:02:18.790 --> 00:02:22.410 But the Chinese author in this article says that processes that used to 56 00:02:22.550 --> 00:02:25.090 take hours in the military or even days 57 00:02:25.270 --> 00:02:27.380 can now be shortened to just seconds. 58 00:02:27.510 --> 00:02:27.730 So, 59 00:02:27.790 --> 00:02:29.500 in the Chinese writer's view, 60 00:02:29.940 --> 00:02:32.490 AI helps in three areas for the military. 61 00:02:32.780 --> 00:02:32.970 One, 62 00:02:33.060 --> 00:02:34.300 rapid decision making, 63 00:02:34.540 --> 00:02:37.010 so it processes the battlefield picture and generates 64 00:02:37.010 --> 00:02:39.980 courses of action for commanders much faster than 65 00:02:40.220 --> 00:02:41.300 humans ever could. 66 00:02:41.460 --> 00:02:42.160 And second, 67 00:02:42.430 --> 00:02:45.650 Chinese believe that rapid coordination is something that AI can. 68 00:02:45.910 --> 00:02:46.670 Coordinate 69 00:02:46.810 --> 00:02:47.360 much better. 70 00:02:47.450 --> 00:02:49.280 They can get your forces across air, 71 00:02:49.330 --> 00:02:49.600 land, 72 00:02:49.770 --> 00:02:49.960 sea, 73 00:02:50.170 --> 00:02:50.400 space, 74 00:02:50.450 --> 00:02:52.730 and cyber and electromagnetic spectrum 75 00:02:52.890 --> 00:02:54.440 and coordinate all of them. 76 00:02:54.610 --> 00:02:57.150 It can supposedly help decide with things like 77 00:02:57.290 --> 00:02:58.590 which weapon attacks, 78 00:02:58.770 --> 00:02:59.540 which target, 79 00:02:59.690 --> 00:03:01.680 and when electronic warfare should begin. 80 00:03:02.060 --> 00:03:02.610 And third, 81 00:03:02.700 --> 00:03:06.510 the Chinese military experts believe that it helps with rapid adjustments. 82 00:03:06.620 --> 00:03:08.090 So once the strike begins, 83 00:03:08.180 --> 00:03:10.550 the network continuously updates itself. 84 00:03:10.700 --> 00:03:12.450 If one firing unit's destroyed, 85 00:03:12.580 --> 00:03:15.090 another one can just be immediately reassigned. 86 00:03:15.260 --> 00:03:18.470 So the same systems that are now destroying YouTube with AI Slop 87 00:03:18.740 --> 00:03:20.770 is now taking the fun out of all of war. 88 00:03:20.900 --> 00:03:22.520 And watching China's strategy 89 00:03:22.740 --> 00:03:26.400 used by Iran collide with the US military strategy 90 00:03:26.580 --> 00:03:27.810 in actual combat. 91 00:03:27.940 --> 00:03:30.310 Has produced some very surprising results. 92 00:03:30.610 --> 00:03:33.680 Some parts of the US military strategy revealed openings 93 00:03:33.680 --> 00:03:36.000 that China believes they can try to exploit, 94 00:03:36.250 --> 00:03:39.570 while other parts have revealed where the American war machine 95 00:03:39.960 --> 00:03:42.310 performed better than China may have expected. 96 00:03:42.490 --> 00:03:44.990 We're legitimately seeing the dress rehearsal 97 00:03:45.110 --> 00:03:45.550 for 98 00:03:45.690 --> 00:03:46.800 on a small level, 99 00:03:47.010 --> 00:03:49.200 what a Taiwan conflict might look like. 100 00:03:49.370 --> 00:03:53.080 A theme that comes up again and again in Chinese defense expert writing 101 00:03:53.290 --> 00:03:53.760 is they. 102 00:03:53.900 --> 00:03:56.630 Discuss in their writings how America used Maven, 103 00:03:56.680 --> 00:03:57.160 Claude, 104 00:03:57.280 --> 00:03:57.710 Grok, 105 00:03:57.730 --> 00:03:59.740 and AI targeting identification 106 00:03:59.880 --> 00:04:05.060 that are all now the future of war as proven by the Iran war according to them. 107 00:04:05.320 --> 00:04:09.220 That even route optimization for the routes that your fighter jets take, 108 00:04:09.370 --> 00:04:12.990 deploying electronic warfare and all of your multi-source intelligence 109 00:04:12.990 --> 00:04:16.589 and cross-domain strikes are now fed through AI. 110 00:04:16.800 --> 00:04:20.660 If your enemies are taking notes on a specific aspect of What you did 111 00:04:20.829 --> 00:04:22.290 and trying to incorporate it, 112 00:04:22.470 --> 00:04:24.970 that sounds like probably something to sustain. 113 00:04:25.170 --> 00:04:27.420 The war in Iran was the first time America 114 00:04:27.420 --> 00:04:31.700 used their new fighting doctrine of JATO called joint all-domain 115 00:04:31.920 --> 00:04:32.610 operations, 116 00:04:32.870 --> 00:04:36.810 which has the entire purpose of linking every sensor to every shooter 117 00:04:37.150 --> 00:04:40.310 across the five different branches from army to space force. 118 00:04:40.590 --> 00:04:43.760 And the only way to handle that much information quickly 119 00:04:43.950 --> 00:04:45.660 was with AI systems like ROM. 120 00:04:46.220 --> 00:04:47.800 That were actually used in the war. 121 00:04:47.940 --> 00:04:50.130 Ethics of all of that aside for a second, 122 00:04:50.340 --> 00:04:53.000 it allowed US forces to conduct a strike campaign 123 00:04:53.020 --> 00:04:56.590 at a high tempo never before seen in military history 124 00:04:56.810 --> 00:04:58.690 with thousands of strikes per day. 125 00:04:58.990 --> 00:04:59.370 Meanwhile, 126 00:04:59.460 --> 00:05:00.170 at the same time, 127 00:05:00.260 --> 00:05:01.310 the PLA and China 128 00:05:01.540 --> 00:05:03.570 saw it as a test of their own concept, 129 00:05:03.660 --> 00:05:06.660 which is called multi-domain precision warfare. 130 00:05:06.940 --> 00:05:10.220 Both forces got to stress test their way of war 131 00:05:10.460 --> 00:05:11.560 because Iran's military. 132 00:05:11.740 --> 00:05:12.600 The strategy was built, 133 00:05:12.620 --> 00:05:12.970 of course, 134 00:05:13.130 --> 00:05:15.280 around the exact same ideas, 135 00:05:15.650 --> 00:05:18.190 same exact weapons systems and philosophy 136 00:05:18.450 --> 00:05:20.570 that China plans to use in the Pacific. 137 00:05:20.810 --> 00:05:24.680 Many of Iran's weapons are copies of Chinese ballistic missiles and drones, 138 00:05:24.770 --> 00:05:28.710 and many of their strategies are lifted straight from the Chinese military. 139 00:05:28.930 --> 00:05:32.550 Think of Iran kind of as a Tu version of China's strategy. 140 00:05:32.770 --> 00:05:33.720 On April 12, 141 00:05:33.930 --> 00:05:35.000 2025, 142 00:05:35.250 --> 00:05:37.310 Chinese publication Guang Ming 143 00:05:37.690 --> 00:05:42.350 And the article Modern Warfare Lessons from the US Israel Iran conflict. 144 00:05:42.520 --> 00:05:44.260 It explicitly described 145 00:05:44.360 --> 00:05:47.350 the conflict as revealing new paradigms in warfare, 146 00:05:47.600 --> 00:05:49.320 including AI enabled targeting, 147 00:05:49.590 --> 00:05:51.180 multi-domain coordination, 148 00:05:51.360 --> 00:05:53.980 and attacking supply chain nodes instead of just 149 00:05:54.000 --> 00:05:56.940 going all in on destroying weapons platforms. 150 00:05:57.240 --> 00:05:58.500 Guang Ming authors 151 00:05:58.600 --> 00:06:00.830 are also very closely affiliated with 152 00:06:00.830 --> 00:06:03.500 China's National University of Defense Technology. 153 00:06:03.790 --> 00:06:06.040 Which is military academic speak for, 154 00:06:06.260 --> 00:06:08.810 so basically what they were writing was that sometimes you get 155 00:06:08.810 --> 00:06:12.050 more mileage for blowing up a warehouse instead of a tank. 156 00:06:12.340 --> 00:06:13.770 And then on July 29, 157 00:06:13.900 --> 00:06:14.570 2025, 158 00:06:14.700 --> 00:06:16.680 PLA daily article translated to 159 00:06:16.890 --> 00:06:20.450 new characteristics of long-range precision saturation strikes 160 00:06:20.940 --> 00:06:22.330 written by Zhai Yang Poo, 161 00:06:22.460 --> 00:06:23.010 Li Zhang, 162 00:06:23.210 --> 00:06:23.970 Zhang Nan, 163 00:06:24.200 --> 00:06:26.290 which I apologize if I butchered some of those names. 164 00:06:26.340 --> 00:06:27.650 I might have sounded racist doing it, 165 00:06:27.700 --> 00:06:28.300 but in my defense, 166 00:06:28.350 --> 00:06:28.620 I'm not, 167 00:06:28.660 --> 00:06:29.480 I'm just stupid. 168 00:06:29.700 --> 00:06:33.160 But the article explicitly argues that Iran's use of ballistic missiles, 169 00:06:33.250 --> 00:06:34.290 cruise missiles, 170 00:06:34.370 --> 00:06:36.230 and slower drones together 171 00:06:36.410 --> 00:06:38.520 show that mixing fast and slow weapons 172 00:06:38.520 --> 00:06:41.110 can disrupt American air defense operations, 173 00:06:41.250 --> 00:06:42.150 consume 174 00:06:42.250 --> 00:06:43.470 costly interceptors, 175 00:06:43.650 --> 00:06:46.650 and help quote unquote tear open the defensive system. 176 00:06:46.810 --> 00:06:50.150 This PLA daily article from April 1st this year 177 00:06:50.250 --> 00:06:53.470 titled How Far Away Is the Intelligence Staff Officer 178 00:06:53.690 --> 00:06:56.670 shows some more lessons that they learned from the Iran war. 179 00:06:56.810 --> 00:06:57.190 In it, 180 00:06:57.330 --> 00:06:59.160 they say that Centcom's use of AI. 181 00:06:59.290 --> 00:07:01.670 In the war is one of the clearest examples yet 182 00:07:01.880 --> 00:07:04.670 of AI moving into actual command work. 183 00:07:04.920 --> 00:07:07.060 The lesson that the PLA is getting here 184 00:07:07.320 --> 00:07:09.310 and the theme over and over again is that 185 00:07:09.310 --> 00:07:12.420 AI in war is moving from just a helpful software 186 00:07:12.560 --> 00:07:14.990 into the actual targeting decision loop. 187 00:07:15.250 --> 00:07:16.780 So the Chinese authors say that 188 00:07:16.880 --> 00:07:21.540 the fighting demonstrated and validated AI's military value in practice. 189 00:07:21.760 --> 00:07:23.470 Another Chinese author on May 7, 190 00:07:23.600 --> 00:07:24.570 2026 191 00:07:24.840 --> 00:07:25.720 writes about quote, 192 00:07:25.840 --> 00:07:26.910 key points for accelerating. 193 00:07:27.310 --> 00:07:29.730 national defense mobilization capability. 194 00:07:30.020 --> 00:07:30.180 Great, 195 00:07:30.270 --> 00:07:35.250 so AI went from Private First Class to Chief Operations Officer in just 6 months. 196 00:07:35.510 --> 00:07:39.210 This article explicitly says the US Israeli Iran conflict 197 00:07:39.350 --> 00:07:42.370 demonstrated that national mobilization capacity has become 198 00:07:42.390 --> 00:07:44.410 a focal point of modern war. 199 00:07:44.590 --> 00:07:47.330 It emphasizes the ability to rapidly identify 200 00:07:47.470 --> 00:07:48.220 what is needed, 201 00:07:48.510 --> 00:07:51.680 convert civilian resources into military capacity, 202 00:07:51.870 --> 00:07:54.700 and then integrate fragmented resources and sustain. 203 00:07:54.940 --> 00:07:56.010 Prolonged operations. 204 00:07:56.100 --> 00:07:56.970 What does all that mean? 205 00:07:57.030 --> 00:07:59.610 It means that the lesson that China took away here, 206 00:07:59.780 --> 00:08:03.520 that they're writing about is how quickly can the Chinese society 207 00:08:03.780 --> 00:08:07.580 turn their gigantic industrial base into wartime output. 208 00:08:07.820 --> 00:08:10.320 But possibly the most interesting writing comes from a 209 00:08:10.430 --> 00:08:13.490 May 11th article written by authors actually affiliated 210 00:08:13.490 --> 00:08:15.960 with the PLA Air Force Research Institute, 211 00:08:16.260 --> 00:08:17.900 making it especially interesting. 212 00:08:18.110 --> 00:08:18.860 They title it, 213 00:08:19.060 --> 00:08:20.390 Air and Missile Defense, 214 00:08:20.570 --> 00:08:22.440 Time for Systemic Transformation. 215 00:08:22.830 --> 00:08:26.540 It directly analyzes the Iran conflict and argues traditional 216 00:08:26.540 --> 00:08:30.700 air defense systems have structural weaknesses against cheap drones, 217 00:08:30.750 --> 00:08:32.020 saturation attacks, 218 00:08:32.190 --> 00:08:34.299 and mixed missile drone salvos. 219 00:08:34.429 --> 00:08:35.900 So from the Chinese writing, 220 00:08:35.990 --> 00:08:39.169 we know that the PLA is treating Iran's campaign like a 221 00:08:39.570 --> 00:08:41.210 live fire war game 222 00:08:41.429 --> 00:08:43.059 of their own concepts. 223 00:08:43.230 --> 00:08:44.810 So China's doctrine known as 224 00:08:45.040 --> 00:08:46.580 Multi-domain precision warfare, 225 00:08:46.910 --> 00:08:49.660 which is a bit borrowed from US doctrine and a, 226 00:08:49.710 --> 00:08:51.460 a bit of their own spice thrown in there. 227 00:08:51.870 --> 00:08:52.700 Sounds complicated, 228 00:08:52.750 --> 00:08:54.250 but the idea is easy 229 00:08:54.390 --> 00:08:54.900 to follow. 230 00:08:55.070 --> 00:08:55.460 Basically, 231 00:08:55.510 --> 00:08:58.660 it's don't try to destroy the entire American military. 232 00:08:58.990 --> 00:08:59.980 Use your satellites, 233 00:09:00.150 --> 00:09:00.810 your AI, 234 00:09:00.950 --> 00:09:01.860 your cyberwarfare, 235 00:09:01.910 --> 00:09:02.750 and recon 236 00:09:03.030 --> 00:09:07.300 to find the handful of nodes that hold America's military together. 237 00:09:07.570 --> 00:09:09.920 The plan is to attack America's command centers, 238 00:09:10.040 --> 00:09:10.870 their communications, 239 00:09:10.960 --> 00:09:11.670 their airfields, 240 00:09:11.760 --> 00:09:12.820 their logistics. 241 00:09:13.080 --> 00:09:14.230 Unlike US forces, 242 00:09:14.390 --> 00:09:15.470 for China's purpose, 243 00:09:15.720 --> 00:09:17.310 their doctrine places heavy, 244 00:09:17.480 --> 00:09:17.790 heavy, 245 00:09:18.040 --> 00:09:19.260 particular emphasis 246 00:09:19.480 --> 00:09:22.920 on finding the Achilles' heel in that network and cutting it. 247 00:09:23.080 --> 00:09:24.310 If that sounds familiar, 248 00:09:24.520 --> 00:09:25.180 it's because 249 00:09:25.360 --> 00:09:27.950 that's exactly the strategy that Iran attempted to use. 250 00:09:28.140 --> 00:09:29.320 During the Iran War. 251 00:09:29.540 --> 00:09:30.440 They got their doctrine, 252 00:09:30.460 --> 00:09:31.020 of course, 253 00:09:31.420 --> 00:09:34.360 exactly straight from the Chinese People's Liberation Army. 254 00:09:34.530 --> 00:09:39.000 The PLA sees the war in Iran as not a perfect example of their strategy at play 255 00:09:39.210 --> 00:09:41.990 because Iran is not a pure opponent of the United States. 256 00:09:42.220 --> 00:09:45.010 The US goal is also very different in fighting Iran. 257 00:09:45.060 --> 00:09:46.770 It was to degrade their missile systems, 258 00:09:46.820 --> 00:09:48.370 possibly knock out the regime. 259 00:09:48.640 --> 00:09:50.770 And destroy nuclear infrastructure. 260 00:09:51.040 --> 00:09:52.470 But in a war with China, 261 00:09:52.520 --> 00:09:53.980 the US goal would be very different. 262 00:09:54.040 --> 00:09:55.740 It would just be to largely 263 00:09:55.990 --> 00:09:57.140 prevent China 264 00:09:57.400 --> 00:09:59.430 from taking over and capturing Taiwan. 265 00:09:59.520 --> 00:10:01.560 It'd be a largely defensive mission. 266 00:10:01.920 --> 00:10:04.100 American experts on China's military 267 00:10:04.480 --> 00:10:06.220 reviewed Chinese state media 268 00:10:06.520 --> 00:10:07.950 and military commentary, 269 00:10:08.120 --> 00:10:10.230 and in it they concluded that Chinese 270 00:10:10.230 --> 00:10:13.420 coverage showed genuine unease at America's ability 271 00:10:13.600 --> 00:10:16.990 to conduct undetected long-range precision strikes 272 00:10:17.240 --> 00:10:17.620 against. 273 00:10:18.150 --> 00:10:20.860 targets deep inside an adversary state. 274 00:10:21.020 --> 00:10:23.480 It also states that Chinese military observer, 275 00:10:23.740 --> 00:10:24.890 Zhu Bingzhang 276 00:10:25.180 --> 00:10:29.840 described Operation Midnight Hammer as a complex multi-domain operation that 277 00:10:30.020 --> 00:10:31.840 demonstrated what he called 278 00:10:31.940 --> 00:10:35.440 the apex of American stealth strategic strike capability, 279 00:10:35.620 --> 00:10:38.520 although he also argued it was a tactical success 280 00:10:38.880 --> 00:10:41.440 instead of necessarily a strategic victory. 281 00:10:41.700 --> 00:10:44.130 It's important to know how your adversary 282 00:10:44.130 --> 00:10:46.480 perceives the effectiveness of your fighting. 283 00:10:46.620 --> 00:10:46.980 So as 284 00:10:47.130 --> 00:10:48.310 is watching this fighting. 285 00:10:48.440 --> 00:10:49.980 Part of their takeaway so far 286 00:10:50.120 --> 00:10:51.890 has been that they're concerned how 287 00:10:51.890 --> 00:10:54.540 effective America's long-range stealth bombers have been 288 00:10:54.680 --> 00:10:58.680 and how effective American suppression of air defense was on these missions. 289 00:10:58.800 --> 00:11:01.340 But why are they looking so closely at this? 290 00:11:01.620 --> 00:11:03.870 Because Iran originally adapted a much 291 00:11:03.870 --> 00:11:06.580 cheaper version of the anti-access strategy 292 00:11:06.840 --> 00:11:10.780 that China has built their entire military on to fight the United States. 293 00:11:10.960 --> 00:11:13.030 The Islamic Republic borrowed the same logic. 294 00:11:13.160 --> 00:11:16.240 They resized their force though for a Persian Gulf conflict. 295 00:11:16.560 --> 00:11:20.850 Their ballistic missile force and their strategy closely mirrors China's. 296 00:11:20.920 --> 00:11:24.010 It's designed to make entering and remaining in the region 297 00:11:24.220 --> 00:11:26.610 as painfully expensive as possible. 298 00:11:26.700 --> 00:11:28.320 This strategy has been coined 299 00:11:28.500 --> 00:11:31.850 anti-access aerial denial or A2AD. 300 00:11:32.020 --> 00:11:34.370 It's the cornerstone of both militaries' doctrines, 301 00:11:34.540 --> 00:11:35.620 Iran and China. 302 00:11:35.820 --> 00:11:39.760 Literally all weapons and tactics are built around this theory of victory. 303 00:11:39.940 --> 00:11:41.680 It's the same basic ideas 304 00:11:41.820 --> 00:11:44.880 that time that my neighbor Carl put nails down on my driveway, 305 00:11:45.100 --> 00:11:45.490 except, 306 00:11:46.050 --> 00:11:47.710 These now are ballistic missiles. 307 00:11:47.810 --> 00:11:52.350 The entire idea itself is based heavily on lessons that the CCP in China 308 00:11:52.500 --> 00:11:55.690 learned from observing America's wars in the Middle East in the past, 309 00:11:55.970 --> 00:11:57.150 during the first Gulf War, 310 00:11:57.330 --> 00:11:57.990 the Iraq War, 311 00:11:58.050 --> 00:11:59.210 and the Afghanistan War. 312 00:11:59.330 --> 00:12:02.470 So Chinese war planners wrote heavily about what they saw, 313 00:12:02.730 --> 00:12:06.790 they learned that the US military favors large-scale bombing campaigns 314 00:12:06.950 --> 00:12:08.870 that are designed to cut off leadership, 315 00:12:09.050 --> 00:12:10.800 and most importantly in the past, 316 00:12:11.050 --> 00:12:12.150 It would casually, 317 00:12:12.320 --> 00:12:13.520 without a care in the world, 318 00:12:13.720 --> 00:12:15.430 the US forces would build up their 319 00:12:15.430 --> 00:12:18.740 troops in the region for several months uncontested 320 00:12:19.090 --> 00:12:22.500 until 500,000 American troops were on giant bases, 321 00:12:22.640 --> 00:12:23.540 and then they would just 322 00:12:23.670 --> 00:12:25.600 invade and steamroll a country 323 00:12:25.800 --> 00:12:28.360 and just overwhelm them with combined arms. 324 00:12:28.560 --> 00:12:31.780 So China's anti-access area denial strategy 325 00:12:31.960 --> 00:12:35.190 was built to launch thousands of missiles to stop US forces. 326 00:12:35.350 --> 00:12:38.010 From ever being able to safely mass troops 327 00:12:38.270 --> 00:12:40.620 within this umbrella of those missiles. 328 00:12:40.750 --> 00:12:44.950 It's about trying to ruin the US military's favorite pregame ritual. 329 00:12:45.110 --> 00:12:45.740 At this point, 330 00:12:45.910 --> 00:12:47.300 we have to separate two things here. 331 00:12:47.430 --> 00:12:47.640 First, 332 00:12:47.790 --> 00:12:51.370 Iran and China may have the same type of A2AD strategy 333 00:12:51.550 --> 00:12:52.430 and types of weapons, 334 00:12:52.550 --> 00:12:54.520 but their goals are drastically different. 335 00:12:54.680 --> 00:12:56.100 For the Islamic Republic of Iran, 336 00:12:56.270 --> 00:12:59.380 ultimately their main goal is for regime survival. 337 00:12:59.510 --> 00:13:00.240 At the end of the day. 338 00:13:00.380 --> 00:13:00.890 For China, 339 00:13:01.020 --> 00:13:02.050 in a potential conflict, 340 00:13:02.100 --> 00:13:04.460 the goal is ultimately to capture Taiwan. 341 00:13:04.720 --> 00:13:05.100 We'll see, 342 00:13:05.220 --> 00:13:07.010 getting to those two very different 343 00:13:07.010 --> 00:13:09.530 goals though involves some similar strategies. 344 00:13:09.660 --> 00:13:12.490 The Iran war was important to Xi Jinping because it 345 00:13:12.490 --> 00:13:16.120 let his war planners watch what happens when a missile-heavy force 346 00:13:16.360 --> 00:13:20.320 runs into an American system that's built around finding those launchers, 347 00:13:20.580 --> 00:13:21.930 breaking those networks, 348 00:13:22.100 --> 00:13:23.620 and attacking the logistics. 349 00:13:24.110 --> 00:13:26.970 That's important for a possible conflict with Taiwan 350 00:13:27.260 --> 00:13:30.850 because China's attempting to keep the US response disorganized 351 00:13:31.190 --> 00:13:32.850 long enough to create a window 352 00:13:33.110 --> 00:13:34.540 for an amphibious invasion. 353 00:13:35.210 --> 00:13:39.470 Some military experts estimate that America's advanced air defense systems 354 00:13:39.600 --> 00:13:42.040 that were deployed in the Middle East have intercepted 355 00:13:42.040 --> 00:13:45.360 roughly 90% of the Iranian ballistic missiles and drones. 356 00:13:45.630 --> 00:13:47.510 Those are some impressive numbers, 357 00:13:47.610 --> 00:13:51.280 and they've played an important role in shielding American facilities in Jordan, 358 00:13:51.340 --> 00:13:51.640 Kuwait, 359 00:13:51.730 --> 00:13:52.230 Bahrain, 360 00:13:52.370 --> 00:13:53.850 and the United Arab Emirates 361 00:13:54.050 --> 00:13:55.400 from Iranian attacks, 362 00:13:55.610 --> 00:13:56.190 mostly. 363 00:13:56.300 --> 00:13:58.240 If we accept those numbers on face value, 364 00:13:58.330 --> 00:14:00.330 the remaining 10% of munitions still. 365 00:14:00.410 --> 00:14:01.230 Got through 366 00:14:01.330 --> 00:14:03.310 and are estimated to have caused significant 367 00:14:03.410 --> 00:14:05.400 damage to American radar systems, 368 00:14:05.530 --> 00:14:06.570 Patriot launchers, 369 00:14:06.810 --> 00:14:07.710 aircraft hangars, 370 00:14:07.810 --> 00:14:10.670 and logistics resupply base infrastructure. 371 00:14:10.860 --> 00:14:13.360 So this is why we see Beijing is studying 372 00:14:13.360 --> 00:14:15.930 which parts of the American system recover quickly, 373 00:14:16.210 --> 00:14:18.330 which logistics nodes are vulnerable, 374 00:14:18.570 --> 00:14:22.080 and how fast munitions can be flown in once the shooting starts. 375 00:14:22.330 --> 00:14:24.360 This is a lesson that cuts both ways, 376 00:14:24.400 --> 00:14:25.150 as we'll see. 377 00:14:25.370 --> 00:14:28.910 One of the The lessons that Chinese experts are walking away from with this 378 00:14:29.090 --> 00:14:32.960 is that air defense in the modern age is at a huge disadvantage. 379 00:14:33.130 --> 00:14:36.000 Both their own systems and US systems. 380 00:14:36.130 --> 00:14:39.200 High-value missile interceptors have a place in war, 381 00:14:39.330 --> 00:14:44.030 but right now it's the area denial weapons like low-cost drones 382 00:14:44.170 --> 00:14:47.830 that have an advantage against air defense systems on both sides. 383 00:14:48.020 --> 00:14:48.680 On offense, 384 00:14:48.770 --> 00:14:50.760 this means getting Chinese ships across the. 385 00:14:51.090 --> 00:14:51.960 of Taiwan 386 00:14:52.130 --> 00:14:53.480 will be incredibly difficult, 387 00:14:53.650 --> 00:14:54.440 and on defense, 388 00:14:54.530 --> 00:14:57.800 it means protecting anything in the first island chain from missiles 389 00:14:57.970 --> 00:14:59.400 will be incredibly difficult. 390 00:14:59.570 --> 00:15:01.600 This is because China's military is 391 00:15:01.600 --> 00:15:04.870 designed to destroy key Taiwan military infrastructure 392 00:15:05.050 --> 00:15:07.510 by using its stockpile of ballistic missiles 393 00:15:07.690 --> 00:15:11.240 fired from China's coastline and naval surface warships, 394 00:15:11.370 --> 00:15:14.150 so cripple Taiwan's ability to resist an invasion 395 00:15:14.410 --> 00:15:16.080 by hitting it hard and fast. 396 00:15:16.430 --> 00:15:20.720 But US supplied Patriot systems are supposed to shield against such attacks. 397 00:15:20.980 --> 00:15:25.760 They're supposed to buy the Taiwanese military valuable time to rally a response. 398 00:15:26.140 --> 00:15:28.980 American air defense systems use a layered defense 399 00:15:29.180 --> 00:15:33.090 that's designed to intercept threats across multiple altitudes and ranges. 400 00:15:33.340 --> 00:15:36.060 Air defense is only one aspect of the war though. 401 00:15:36.210 --> 00:15:38.360 A far more important and critical one 402 00:15:38.560 --> 00:15:40.960 actually cuts again both ways for China. 403 00:15:41.180 --> 00:15:42.250 How maritime choke. 404 00:15:42.700 --> 00:15:44.540 work during high-intensity war. 405 00:15:44.730 --> 00:15:48.810 Iran demonstrated that it's not difficult to shut down a maritime chokepoint. 406 00:15:49.030 --> 00:15:51.330 China has its own version of the Strait of Hormuz, 407 00:15:51.380 --> 00:15:53.240 the Strait of Malacca essentially. 408 00:15:53.460 --> 00:15:57.120 China accounted for almost half of the import volumes 409 00:15:57.380 --> 00:15:58.580 moving through the Strait. 410 00:15:58.820 --> 00:16:02.600 This is why China has spent years building pipelines to go around it. 411 00:16:02.820 --> 00:16:06.760 But Chinese strategists have worried about the US Navy blockading the chokepoint. 412 00:16:07.020 --> 00:16:08.390 China learned during the Iran 413 00:16:08.500 --> 00:16:11.490 War that their own stockpile of oil reserves is 414 00:16:11.490 --> 00:16:13.770 enough to last longer than we may have thought. 415 00:16:14.220 --> 00:16:16.480 Lessons learned by Chinese analysts is that 416 00:16:16.580 --> 00:16:19.880 they've stockpiled roughly 1.5 billion barrels of oil, 417 00:16:20.140 --> 00:16:22.340 enough on paper to replace the oil 418 00:16:22.580 --> 00:16:25.730 normally coming through Malacca for around 6 months, 419 00:16:25.860 --> 00:16:28.570 but there's another issue the war brought to light, 420 00:16:28.740 --> 00:16:31.610 how the US Navy needs logistics of its own. 421 00:16:31.900 --> 00:16:34.360 American warships fighting around Malacca would need, 422 00:16:34.430 --> 00:16:34.810 Fuel, 423 00:16:34.940 --> 00:16:35.490 ammunition, 424 00:16:35.700 --> 00:16:35.960 food, 425 00:16:36.140 --> 00:16:36.720 maintenance, 426 00:16:36.900 --> 00:16:38.800 and somewhere nearby to operate from. 427 00:16:38.990 --> 00:16:42.860 Singapore currently hosts important American naval logistics infrastructure, 428 00:16:43.060 --> 00:16:45.410 while facilities stretching from Diego Garcia to 429 00:16:45.410 --> 00:16:48.490 the Philippines help support that broader network. 430 00:16:48.660 --> 00:16:49.770 But during the Iran War, 431 00:16:49.940 --> 00:16:53.130 the main US logistics hub in the region at Bahrain, 432 00:16:53.340 --> 00:16:53.970 was hit, 433 00:16:54.060 --> 00:16:57.940 and the other ones were just within missile range of Iran, 434 00:16:58.060 --> 00:16:58.680 which meant 435 00:16:58.800 --> 00:17:00.290 many logistics warships, 436 00:17:00.430 --> 00:17:05.160 were unable to resupply American warships and so they had to go on reduced supplies. 437 00:17:05.380 --> 00:17:07.640 This can make extended deployments difficult 438 00:17:07.660 --> 00:17:10.680 without adequate resupply of food and supplies 439 00:17:10.859 --> 00:17:13.970 and without being able to step off ship onto land. 440 00:17:14.180 --> 00:17:15.410 The American aircraft carrier, 441 00:17:15.430 --> 00:17:18.480 the Lincoln reported running into supply issues because 442 00:17:18.480 --> 00:17:21.160 of these reduced access to these facilities. 443 00:17:21.420 --> 00:17:23.720 China has learned that they can make it difficult 444 00:17:23.740 --> 00:17:25.930 for US warships to remain in the fight. 445 00:17:26.099 --> 00:17:26.359 These 446 00:17:26.540 --> 00:17:28.920 Some of the theoreticals that played out during the war, 447 00:17:29.100 --> 00:17:30.800 but there is a more concrete aspect. 448 00:17:31.020 --> 00:17:33.930 The missiles are what this entire war strategy 449 00:17:33.930 --> 00:17:36.300 is built around for both Iran and China. 450 00:17:36.500 --> 00:17:39.880 And the surprising part that I found out is that Iran's missile arsenal 451 00:17:40.100 --> 00:17:42.940 isn't actually tiny compared to China's before the war. 452 00:17:43.140 --> 00:17:47.630 Estimates put Iran's arsenal at somewhere between 3000 and 5000 missiles, 453 00:17:47.700 --> 00:17:52.380 and China's believed to have roughly 2800 to 3000 missiles of varying. 454 00:17:52.430 --> 00:17:53.540 Ranges from short, 455 00:17:53.700 --> 00:17:54.040 medium, 456 00:17:54.060 --> 00:17:58.300 and intermediate range ballistic missiles aimed primarily at regional warfare. 457 00:17:58.500 --> 00:17:58.770 However, 458 00:17:58.910 --> 00:18:01.190 China's missiles are generally longer range, 459 00:18:01.580 --> 00:18:02.320 more precise, 460 00:18:02.580 --> 00:18:04.890 and include weapons specifically designed 461 00:18:04.890 --> 00:18:07.330 to maneuver around missile defenses and 462 00:18:07.330 --> 00:18:11.000 attack American warships and bases that are thousands of miles away. 463 00:18:11.260 --> 00:18:13.560 China has the space-based technologies 464 00:18:13.700 --> 00:18:16.200 that they share with Iran during the war 465 00:18:16.220 --> 00:18:18.370 in order to make their weapons more accurate. 466 00:18:18.640 --> 00:18:21.020 So these are the ISR capabilities. 467 00:18:21.160 --> 00:18:22.950 And here is where we see some limits to the 468 00:18:22.950 --> 00:18:26.190 strategy and how China's trying to adapt to them. 469 00:18:26.400 --> 00:18:28.150 So in the 1st 5 days of the war, 470 00:18:28.280 --> 00:18:30.950 Iran launched over 500 ballistic missiles, 471 00:18:31.040 --> 00:18:32.380 1500 drones 472 00:18:32.640 --> 00:18:33.990 against various targets, 473 00:18:34.080 --> 00:18:38.740 and damage was reportedly done to 17 US military bases and installations 474 00:18:38.960 --> 00:18:39.940 throughout the Gulf. 475 00:18:40.220 --> 00:18:42.590 There's now talk of moving US bases out of 476 00:18:42.590 --> 00:18:45.310 the region to safer ground further away in Israel. 477 00:18:45.890 --> 00:18:47.590 As a result of these attacks. 478 00:18:47.810 --> 00:18:50.330 But here is the lesson that I think China took away. 479 00:18:50.450 --> 00:18:52.310 The Washington Institute think tank 480 00:18:52.570 --> 00:18:55.830 issued a report that found that Iran's Shahad type drones 481 00:18:56.030 --> 00:18:59.790 actually had a greater success rate than Iranian ballistic missiles. 482 00:19:00.050 --> 00:19:02.420 This presents an important lesson for China 483 00:19:02.610 --> 00:19:06.070 that we've seen them writing about in their own writings online. 484 00:19:06.290 --> 00:19:06.680 And so, 485 00:19:06.850 --> 00:19:10.640 China's wasting no time trying to put these lessons into practice. 486 00:19:10.890 --> 00:19:12.120 The PLA is expanding. 487 00:19:12.230 --> 00:19:12.900 Its munitions, 488 00:19:13.020 --> 00:19:16.170 adding missiles with hypersonic glide vehicles that can 489 00:19:16.170 --> 00:19:19.330 evade interceptors and platforms that launch them. 490 00:19:19.460 --> 00:19:20.890 Alongside these efforts, 491 00:19:21.060 --> 00:19:24.120 China has become the world's leading drone manufacturer. 492 00:19:24.260 --> 00:19:25.050 So for context, 493 00:19:25.180 --> 00:19:29.010 Ukraine and Russia make about 18 million drones per year combined, 494 00:19:29.180 --> 00:19:32.170 and some experts believe that Chinese civilian manufacturers 495 00:19:32.170 --> 00:19:34.720 have the capacity to retool in under a year 496 00:19:34.860 --> 00:19:38.570 to turn out a billion weaponized drones each year. 497 00:19:39.040 --> 00:19:41.590 Associate research fellow at Taiwan's Institute 498 00:19:41.590 --> 00:19:43.690 for National Defense and Security Research 499 00:19:44.020 --> 00:19:44.210 said, 500 00:19:44.270 --> 00:19:44.500 quote, 501 00:19:44.670 --> 00:19:46.930 long-range rockets and drone swarms 502 00:19:47.070 --> 00:19:48.940 will definitely play a key role in 503 00:19:48.940 --> 00:19:52.210 China's joint military operations against Taiwan. 504 00:19:52.510 --> 00:19:55.720 Not everything from the Iran war that China saw 505 00:19:55.910 --> 00:19:57.790 was exactly encouraging for them. 506 00:19:57.910 --> 00:19:58.220 In fact, 507 00:19:58.350 --> 00:20:00.610 the war exposed a potential weakness 508 00:20:00.870 --> 00:20:03.530 in their entire anti-access strategy 509 00:20:03.710 --> 00:20:05.700 that both Iran and China have spent decades. 510 00:20:05.870 --> 00:20:06.470 Building, 511 00:20:06.640 --> 00:20:09.070 and this is according to their own writings. 512 00:20:09.240 --> 00:20:12.080 So missiles only work if you can keep firing them. 513 00:20:12.240 --> 00:20:14.460 Iran started the war by throwing enormous 514 00:20:14.460 --> 00:20:17.020 volleys of ballistic missiles and drones at American 515 00:20:17.160 --> 00:20:18.110 and allied bases, 516 00:20:18.240 --> 00:20:19.950 but within just roughly a week, 517 00:20:20.200 --> 00:20:23.790 Iranian ballistic missile launches had fallen by about 90%, 518 00:20:24.000 --> 00:20:26.270 while drone launches dropped by 80%. 519 00:20:26.440 --> 00:20:28.590 And according to analysis from CSIS, 520 00:20:28.760 --> 00:20:30.330 American and Israeli aircraft 521 00:20:30.560 --> 00:20:32.600 were actively hunting all of the infrastructure. 522 00:20:32.660 --> 00:20:33.870 Structure and launchers 523 00:20:34.010 --> 00:20:35.880 that allowed Iran to keep shooting. 524 00:20:36.050 --> 00:20:39.320 So the missile launchers still continued to shoot in Iran, 525 00:20:39.570 --> 00:20:40.520 and they were dangerous, 526 00:20:40.610 --> 00:20:44.110 but they remained a far lower volume for the rest of the war. 527 00:20:44.370 --> 00:20:47.120 New AI targeting allowed US armed forces to hit 528 00:20:47.120 --> 00:20:50.280 over 14,000 locations in a short period of time, 529 00:20:50.450 --> 00:20:52.610 unlike any campaign seen in history. 530 00:20:52.770 --> 00:20:56.350 Comparing one war to another is obviously not an exact 1 to 1. 531 00:20:56.610 --> 00:20:59.320 China has far larger and more capable air defense. 532 00:20:59.490 --> 00:21:01.250 Umbrella and more importantly, 533 00:21:01.300 --> 00:21:03.360 a much larger air force to defend them, 534 00:21:03.580 --> 00:21:05.010 but there are other cheap, 535 00:21:05.060 --> 00:21:08.850 low-cost American drones that can attack China's mobile launchers. 536 00:21:09.020 --> 00:21:11.390 But the lesson was undeniable overall. 537 00:21:11.620 --> 00:21:12.680 China learned here 538 00:21:12.810 --> 00:21:15.640 how important it is to protect their missile launchers 539 00:21:15.780 --> 00:21:18.420 or their volume of fire will dramatically fall. 540 00:21:18.660 --> 00:21:19.790 For Iran's purpose, 541 00:21:19.940 --> 00:21:24.490 only having a low volume of missile fire and drone fire was OK for their strategy, 542 00:21:24.540 --> 00:21:26.010 it worked relatively well. 543 00:21:26.290 --> 00:21:26.550 However, 544 00:21:26.640 --> 00:21:27.190 for China, 545 00:21:27.400 --> 00:21:31.300 keeping a high volume of fire is absolutely essential for their goals. 546 00:21:31.600 --> 00:21:33.870 There's an industrial lesson underneath all of this. 547 00:21:34.080 --> 00:21:36.900 Iran could launch a lot of missiles and drones, 548 00:21:37.080 --> 00:21:40.420 but once launchers were destroyed and the stockpile started shrinking, 549 00:21:40.660 --> 00:21:42.800 the volume of fire fell very quickly. 550 00:21:43.120 --> 00:21:47.200 China has spent years building a much larger civilian manufacturing base 551 00:21:47.400 --> 00:21:50.510 that could potentially be redirected toward wartime production. 552 00:21:50.980 --> 00:21:52.200 So the real question is 553 00:21:52.410 --> 00:21:55.620 how many missiles and drones China will have on day one. 554 00:21:55.780 --> 00:21:58.970 How quickly can factories replace on day 30 555 00:21:59.140 --> 00:22:01.330 when the opening stockpile starts disappearing? 556 00:22:01.390 --> 00:22:03.040 Because apparently World War 3 is gonna come 557 00:22:03.060 --> 00:22:05.130 down to whoever has the better shift supervisor. 558 00:22:05.260 --> 00:22:09.540 China's strategy around Taiwan depends heavily on maintaining missile pressure 559 00:22:09.860 --> 00:22:12.130 long enough to keep American bases damaged, 560 00:22:12.300 --> 00:22:12.610 airfields. 561 00:22:12.930 --> 00:22:14.950 Closed and ships further away. 562 00:22:15.130 --> 00:22:20.720 So a reduction in their missile fire would not work for the CCP and they noticed that, 563 00:22:20.890 --> 00:22:23.720 and their military analysts took strong notice of that. 564 00:22:23.930 --> 00:22:26.710 The United States and Israel quickly established enough air 565 00:22:26.710 --> 00:22:30.210 superiority to start operating much more freely over Iran. 566 00:22:30.530 --> 00:22:30.800 China, 567 00:22:30.820 --> 00:22:31.180 of course, 568 00:22:31.250 --> 00:22:34.480 has many times more air defense systems compared to Iran. 569 00:22:34.810 --> 00:22:37.720 And Chinese experts wrote about how they observed that 570 00:22:37.930 --> 00:22:41.280 once American aircraft could safely get close to their targets, 571 00:22:41.370 --> 00:22:43.510 the US stopped relying as heavily 572 00:22:43.570 --> 00:22:46.200 on any multi-million dollar long-range missiles, 573 00:22:46.250 --> 00:22:48.430 and by day 14 of the war with Iran, 574 00:22:48.770 --> 00:22:49.530 the Pentagon 575 00:22:49.850 --> 00:22:52.670 believed that only about 1% of the munitions they used 576 00:22:52.800 --> 00:22:54.890 were standoff long-range weapons. 577 00:22:55.050 --> 00:22:58.030 So Iran revealed both sides of China's strategy. 578 00:22:58.170 --> 00:22:58.400 Yes, 579 00:22:58.650 --> 00:23:01.990 enough missiles and drones can penetrate American defenses, 580 00:23:02.090 --> 00:23:03.560 it can damage American bases. 581 00:23:03.800 --> 00:23:05.460 And impose enormous costs. 582 00:23:05.590 --> 00:23:09.060 But if those attacks fail to suppress American forces quickly, 583 00:23:09.290 --> 00:23:12.100 the missile launchers themselves become targets. 584 00:23:12.230 --> 00:23:15.190 And once America gets inside that defensive bubble, 585 00:23:15.510 --> 00:23:19.520 maintaining the bombardment becomes much cheaper for the United States 586 00:23:19.670 --> 00:23:21.210 and much harder for the defender. 587 00:23:21.390 --> 00:23:21.620 Again, 588 00:23:21.750 --> 00:23:23.340 China is obviously not Iran, 589 00:23:23.430 --> 00:23:25.170 its geography in the Pacific 590 00:23:25.350 --> 00:23:28.180 makes American air operations vastly more difficult, 591 00:23:28.390 --> 00:23:31.850 but these are some of the lessons that war planners in Beijing 592 00:23:31.990 --> 00:23:32.460 have taken. 593 00:23:32.810 --> 00:23:33.830 and written about. 594 00:23:33.980 --> 00:23:36.990 China learned that they need a stockpile of missiles 595 00:23:37.170 --> 00:23:41.050 that are quick to rebuild or they face ammo shortages quickly. 596 00:23:41.250 --> 00:23:43.520 One of the biggest lessons Chinese experts took 597 00:23:43.520 --> 00:23:45.560 away was how choke points are weaponized. 598 00:23:45.690 --> 00:23:47.960 Iran's greatest weapon was oil. 599 00:23:48.130 --> 00:23:49.550 By shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, 600 00:23:49.730 --> 00:23:52.680 they stopped 25% of the world's maritime oil trade. 601 00:23:52.890 --> 00:23:55.640 This is a theory of war that China would also use, 602 00:23:55.850 --> 00:23:57.110 but in a very different way. 603 00:23:57.410 --> 00:24:01.400 China will also attempt to make America's allies pay for American support of. 604 00:24:01.590 --> 00:24:02.180 Taiwan. 605 00:24:02.450 --> 00:24:05.530 Iran struck infrastructure across Gulf countries of 606 00:24:05.550 --> 00:24:08.070 anyone that hosted or supported US forces. 607 00:24:08.230 --> 00:24:10.820 They used the justification for even hosting 608 00:24:10.820 --> 00:24:13.270 US bases to attack countries' economies. 609 00:24:13.470 --> 00:24:15.260 The objective was pretty straightforward, 610 00:24:15.430 --> 00:24:17.420 to just convince regional governments that 611 00:24:17.420 --> 00:24:19.930 allowing America to operate from their territory 612 00:24:20.150 --> 00:24:21.820 came with a very expensive bill. 613 00:24:22.070 --> 00:24:24.460 China would attempt the same thing in the Pacific. 614 00:24:24.590 --> 00:24:27.650 The United States depends heavily on bases in Japan, 615 00:24:27.790 --> 00:24:28.700 the Philippines, 616 00:24:28.840 --> 00:24:30.420 to fight anywhere near Taiwan. 617 00:24:30.730 --> 00:24:34.090 So CSIS warns that American facilities throughout Japan, 618 00:24:34.410 --> 00:24:34.980 Guam 619 00:24:35.090 --> 00:24:38.100 are highly vulnerable to Chinese missile and drone attacks, 620 00:24:38.210 --> 00:24:40.430 and Beijing's geopolitical objective 621 00:24:40.640 --> 00:24:42.750 will be to make these countries ask 622 00:24:42.990 --> 00:24:45.080 whether allowing American bombers, 623 00:24:45.250 --> 00:24:45.680 ships, 624 00:24:45.730 --> 00:24:48.190 and missiles to operate from their territory 625 00:24:48.410 --> 00:24:50.140 is worth having their own ports, 626 00:24:50.310 --> 00:24:50.790 airfields, 627 00:24:50.810 --> 00:24:52.350 and infrastructure threatened. 628 00:24:52.570 --> 00:24:53.860 But unlike the Iran war, 629 00:24:54.210 --> 00:24:56.330 China would have an economic lever as well, 630 00:24:56.510 --> 00:24:57.670 or a bigger one anyway. 631 00:24:57.920 --> 00:25:00.340 China remains Japan's largest trading partner. 632 00:25:00.510 --> 00:25:01.300 In the Philippines, 633 00:25:01.430 --> 00:25:02.920 their exposure is even bigger. 634 00:25:03.110 --> 00:25:03.940 In 2026, 635 00:25:04.030 --> 00:25:05.700 the Philippine imports from China, 636 00:25:06.110 --> 00:25:08.490 Beijing is their largest foreign supplier 637 00:25:08.620 --> 00:25:09.790 by a huge margin. 638 00:25:09.950 --> 00:25:13.420 So military pressure could arrive alongside export restrictions, 639 00:25:13.560 --> 00:25:14.770 shipping disruption, 640 00:25:14.950 --> 00:25:15.820 cyberattacks, 641 00:25:15.910 --> 00:25:17.580 and economic retaliation. 642 00:25:17.940 --> 00:25:22.220 We saw Iran attempt cyberattacks on America shortly into the war, 643 00:25:22.420 --> 00:25:25.570 but Iran also demonstrated the danger of this strategy. 644 00:25:25.780 --> 00:25:28.830 Attacking Gulf countries sometimes had the opposite effect. 645 00:25:29.020 --> 00:25:31.400 Instead of frightening them away from America, 646 00:25:31.740 --> 00:25:34.250 the Iranian strikes pushed several countries toward 647 00:25:34.250 --> 00:25:36.780 greater military cooperation with the United States. 648 00:25:37.020 --> 00:25:40.250 That may be one of the biggest lessons that Beijing takes away. 649 00:25:40.420 --> 00:25:44.770 Their goal is to convince each ally of America that staying out of the war is safer. 650 00:25:45.040 --> 00:25:47.850 Than letting America fight from its territory 651 00:25:48.040 --> 00:25:50.350 without hitting them so hard that they accidentally 652 00:25:50.350 --> 00:25:52.790 turn a reluctant partner into a determined enemy. 653 00:25:52.930 --> 00:25:55.230 The global impact of Iran's actions have 654 00:25:55.230 --> 00:25:57.580 placed intense pressure on the United States 655 00:25:57.760 --> 00:25:58.910 to end the war quickly, 656 00:25:59.000 --> 00:26:02.460 and this pressure is coming from America's international allies, 657 00:26:02.600 --> 00:26:05.860 who are bearing the brunt of soaring energy prices as well 658 00:26:05.960 --> 00:26:07.240 as domestically. 659 00:26:07.440 --> 00:26:09.110 If China blockaded Taiwan, 660 00:26:09.240 --> 00:26:11.830 the impact would be like shutting off oil in Hormuz. 661 00:26:11.950 --> 00:26:12.250 In a way, 662 00:26:12.340 --> 00:26:14.050 but it would be for microchips. 663 00:26:14.280 --> 00:26:16.260 So instead of paying more for the gas pump, 664 00:26:16.530 --> 00:26:19.370 your PS6 order just got delayed another 6 months, 665 00:26:19.620 --> 00:26:21.770 which makes the war just a lot more personal. 666 00:26:21.980 --> 00:26:25.490 AI data centers would also take a devastating hit from this war. 667 00:26:25.660 --> 00:26:27.760 But the United States and Chinese economies 668 00:26:27.900 --> 00:26:30.110 have been intertwined for decades, 669 00:26:30.300 --> 00:26:32.420 way closer than Iran and the United States. 670 00:26:32.620 --> 00:26:34.320 And so China is taking steps 671 00:26:34.440 --> 00:26:37.610 to insulate itself from such external pressures, 672 00:26:37.820 --> 00:26:38.840 minimizing any leverage. 673 00:26:39.430 --> 00:26:43.430 that another country like the United States might hold over it during a conflict. 674 00:26:43.760 --> 00:26:45.880 Where the economic burden meets the war 675 00:26:46.040 --> 00:26:47.390 is alliances, 676 00:26:47.520 --> 00:26:50.190 and this is one of the most important lessons for China, 677 00:26:50.240 --> 00:26:50.800 I believe, 678 00:26:51.000 --> 00:26:53.900 and how their experts are interpreting this 679 00:26:54.080 --> 00:26:57.350 is how vital alliances are for America's way of war. 680 00:26:57.800 --> 00:27:02.260 European partners have a lot of say over how American bases are used 681 00:27:02.410 --> 00:27:05.880 for either launching strikes or shipping supplies to the front lines. 682 00:27:06.220 --> 00:27:09.480 Some countries that host US forces from the Gulf to Europe 683 00:27:09.620 --> 00:27:12.890 denied US the authorization to launch attacks 684 00:27:13.100 --> 00:27:15.850 or denied even moving bombs through their air bases. 685 00:27:16.060 --> 00:27:20.890 The alliances in the Gulf and in Europe with NATO are much stronger and more clear cut 686 00:27:20.890 --> 00:27:22.930 in many cases than the hub and spoke 687 00:27:22.930 --> 00:27:26.320 bilateral agreements in the Pacific that America has. 688 00:27:26.660 --> 00:27:29.250 The notes China's taking here is that if they can split 689 00:27:29.250 --> 00:27:33.010 up those agreements and pressure countries to not allow the US. 690 00:27:33.480 --> 00:27:34.670 To use their bases, 691 00:27:34.800 --> 00:27:36.870 it can have a major impact on the war, 692 00:27:37.080 --> 00:27:39.220 as we saw was the case in the Iran War. 693 00:27:39.400 --> 00:27:41.710 One naval escort mission had to be scrapped 694 00:27:41.710 --> 00:27:45.220 because authorization was not extended for American forces 695 00:27:45.380 --> 00:27:47.350 to launch from Saudi Arabia at one point. 696 00:27:47.480 --> 00:27:50.020 Italy and Spain denied use of their runways, 697 00:27:50.240 --> 00:27:52.990 and it was almost unheard of in the modern age for this to happen. 698 00:27:53.120 --> 00:27:55.910 The alliance peace may be the least flashy lesson, 699 00:27:56.120 --> 00:27:57.670 but it could be one of the most important. 700 00:27:57.800 --> 00:27:59.270 American power in the Pacific. 701 00:27:59.480 --> 00:28:01.430 Depends on access to different runways, 702 00:28:01.520 --> 00:28:01.890 ports, 703 00:28:01.960 --> 00:28:03.180 and repair facilities. 704 00:28:03.360 --> 00:28:07.220 It relies on the permission from those allied governments to use them. 705 00:28:07.440 --> 00:28:09.300 Iran war showed Xi Jinping 706 00:28:09.420 --> 00:28:11.830 that making the political cost of hosting American 707 00:28:11.830 --> 00:28:14.350 units unbearable is key to their plan. 708 00:28:14.600 --> 00:28:17.990 His pressure campaign in Taiwan will combine military threats, 709 00:28:18.320 --> 00:28:19.180 economic pressure, 710 00:28:19.400 --> 00:28:21.380 and attempts to split the coalition 711 00:28:21.720 --> 00:28:23.140 before it fully forms. 712 00:28:23.480 --> 00:28:25.430 China's not liked in the Pacific by its neighbors. 713 00:28:26.280 --> 00:28:27.940 And it just needs those countries 714 00:28:28.200 --> 00:28:30.080 to not like America even more. 715 00:28:30.240 --> 00:28:33.270 China aims to cast doubt on the United States as a stable, 716 00:28:33.320 --> 00:28:34.240 reliable partner. 717 00:28:34.380 --> 00:28:37.700 China attempted to seize the moment by doubling down on its claim 718 00:28:37.840 --> 00:28:41.320 that Washington would not uphold its commitments to Taiwan 719 00:28:41.520 --> 00:28:43.070 and other Asian countries. 720 00:28:43.240 --> 00:28:45.100 The Iran war is a prime example 721 00:28:45.240 --> 00:28:47.030 of how these alliances work. 722 00:28:47.230 --> 00:28:49.680 The vice chairman of China's National People's Congress 723 00:28:49.800 --> 00:28:51.550 recently attended the funeral of Ayatollah. 724 00:28:51.840 --> 00:28:52.620 Khameni 725 00:28:52.840 --> 00:28:54.430 and met with Iranian leadership. 726 00:28:54.640 --> 00:28:55.750 Following this engagement, 727 00:28:55.840 --> 00:28:57.470 Iranian leaders thanked China, 728 00:28:57.680 --> 00:28:58.570 stating that quote, 729 00:28:58.640 --> 00:29:01.820 Iran will remember China's long-term valuable support 730 00:29:01.960 --> 00:29:05.790 and expressed its willingness to strengthen relations to a new level. 731 00:29:06.000 --> 00:29:07.700 At the World Peace Forum in Beijing, 732 00:29:07.840 --> 00:29:09.680 the Iranian ambassador to China 733 00:29:09.880 --> 00:29:13.700 said that Iran would grant China quote special considerations 734 00:29:13.920 --> 00:29:17.710 when setting future service fees for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. 735 00:29:18.040 --> 00:29:20.350 Because China is a friendly country to them. 736 00:29:20.480 --> 00:29:21.030 At this point, 737 00:29:21.080 --> 00:29:23.060 it's friends with trade benefits. 738 00:29:23.290 --> 00:29:26.390 So what did China actually learn from the war in Iran? 739 00:29:26.640 --> 00:29:30.830 Iran showed Beijing that its basic theory of A2AD works, 740 00:29:30.880 --> 00:29:32.290 but only up to a point. 741 00:29:32.460 --> 00:29:34.950 They took it as confirmation that their doctrine of 742 00:29:34.950 --> 00:29:38.550 multi-domain precision strikes against America is the right one, 743 00:29:38.640 --> 00:29:42.420 but that America's doctrine can also exploit their weaknesses. 744 00:29:42.680 --> 00:29:43.740 We will observe in. 745 00:29:44.480 --> 00:29:47.150 exercises over the next year or two if their drills 746 00:29:47.320 --> 00:29:49.630 rehearse fighting that plans for degraded 747 00:29:49.630 --> 00:29:52.260 networks and if they prioritize dispersed command 748 00:29:52.440 --> 00:29:53.470 like Iran did. 749 00:29:53.680 --> 00:29:54.590 If they do this, 750 00:29:54.720 --> 00:29:57.580 it'll show us evidence of lessons from the Iran war 751 00:29:57.840 --> 00:29:59.030 traveling to China. 752 00:29:59.160 --> 00:30:01.060 So the lesson is that Beijing has 753 00:30:01.160 --> 00:30:05.520 a much clearer picture of where a Taiwan war would be won or lost, 754 00:30:05.760 --> 00:30:09.450 whether China can keep American forces far enough away for long enough 755 00:30:09.600 --> 00:30:09.870 while 756 00:30:10.120 --> 00:30:14.460 The economic and political price high enough that Washington and its allies 757 00:30:14.760 --> 00:30:16.910 decide continuing the fight isn't worth it. 758 00:30:17.160 --> 00:30:22.110 The Iran war just gave China and the United States a real-world test of that theory, 759 00:30:22.320 --> 00:30:24.900 and now both sides get to study the results. 760 00:30:25.240 --> 00:30:25.710 To learn more, 761 00:30:25.840 --> 00:30:29.760 check out this video here about the United States' op plan to defeat China 762 00:30:29.920 --> 00:30:32.820 by surging 900,000 troops into the theater. 763 00:30:32.920 --> 00:30:33.670 I'm Chris Cappi. 764 00:30:33.800 --> 00:30:34.670 Thank you for watching. 765 00:30:34.800 --> 00:30:35.990 See you in the next transmission.