WEBVTT

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I want to show you how America's war against the cartel is rapidly

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expanding and suddenly the cartels are being hit from every direction at once.

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Explosive accusations from the US against the governor of Mexico's Sinaloa state.

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Mexican governors are being indicted by the United States,

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and US forces are moving back into Colombia.

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The cartel crackdown has officially become a group project.

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So today I want.

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Try to do something that the news is surprisingly bad at.

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Pull all these stories together to show you the big picture,

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because America's going from putting Sicarios in

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body bags to attacking the larger political system

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that keeps the cartels alive.

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And that raises a much bigger question,

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I think.

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Are the cartels finally starting to fall apart,

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or are we just watching the beginning of an even bigger war?

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The United States and Colombia just declared war on the cartel,

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with Colombia's new president even authorizing direct military action,

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direct joint operations inside the country for the first time,

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because nothing says renewed diplomatic relations like

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close air support.

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Their marines are striking armed groups deep in the countryside and

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killing narco bosses in what's quickly becoming a massive coordinated campaign.

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But we'll see how Colombia in many ways is the root

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of all evil when it comes to the cartels throughout.

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Latin America.

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It's where all roads eventually lead back to.

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It's the mecca of cocaine production.

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It's the final boss of narco-terrorists.

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But the strategic goal of this new offensive push

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inside of Colombia,

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is much bigger than just the war on drugs,

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as we'll learn.

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Now back to the episode.

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Colombian cocaine is making a major resurgence

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across the United States and Europe,

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with the deaths from this substance exploding from under 7000 in 2016

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to nearly 30,000 deaths from cocaine use by 2023.

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And that resurgence helps explain why Colombia's political pendulum

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has suddenly swung back toward military force.

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Colombia's new president,

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Esprilia,

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is wasting no time launching a new war on the country's narco groups,

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saying in his inaugural address that quote,

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the option of dialogue is completely exhausted.

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Within the 1st 3 days of taking office,

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Colombian forces killed the leader of a FARC rebel group,

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and they signed up for the America Counter-cartel Coalition,

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which is a US-backed initiative of 19 different countries in the Western

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Hemisphere that share intelligence and coordinate

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direct military operations against the cartel.

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It's like NATO.

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But NATO at home.

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And the group chat here

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now has air support.

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The US just announced a billion dollars

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in funding for the new Colombian government.

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It's already being called Plan Colombia 2.0.

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Except like with all good sequels and reboots,

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they've punched up the stakes.

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This time,

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lethal American military action

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is directly authorized,

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and instead of countering the Soviet Union this time around,

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the subplot is to counter the Chinese Communist Party,

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because Colombia had been drifting.

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closer to Xi Jinping's China under the former Colombian president Petro.

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During his tenure,

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Colombia joined the CCP's infrastructure project,

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the Belt and Road Initiative in 2025.

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As China attempts to expand its influence across Latin America,

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the United States is trying to counter that

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and trying to make sure that the Western Hemisphere remains firmly on its side

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before any major global conflict.

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Nothing makes America care more about Latin American infrastructure,

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more than.

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China offering to build it first.

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Practically speaking,

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that means securing access to mining critical minerals and energy,

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protecting strategic waterways,

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strengthening nearby supply chains,

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and rebuilding closer military relationships

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with governments like Colombia.

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But to put that in a no bull

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pragmatic real politic terms,

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Latin America

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has just a massive pool of cheap labor

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and the resources that are needed

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to cut America's dependence on China.

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And so the activation of America's

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Joint Task Force Western Hemisphere under SOUTHCOM

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is part of this bigger strategy that goes beyond just drugs.

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But is this new approach working?

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By looking at the last attempt,

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you can see why they're going with a very different approach this time.

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Colombia with a population of a little over 50 million people,

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and a territory about twice the size of Texas,

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plays a massive outsized role in the fate of the entire Western Hemisphere.

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And at the heart of this problem is its geograph.

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It is very difficult terrain with the Andes Mountains,

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the Amazonian jungles,

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deserts,

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and grasslands that isolate each part of the country

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and make governing it from a central authority incredibly difficult.

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Colombia's geography looked at the government and said basically,

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good luck with that.

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To understand why the root of the drug war is so hard to untangle,

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you have to understand that it was never really just a drug war in the first place.

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In the 1960s,

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large parts of these rural isolated sections of Colombia were Desperately poor,

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and land ownership was concentrated among a relatively small elite class,

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and the Colombian government had limited control

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over huge stretches of the countryside.

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Inspired partly by the Colombian revolution at the time,

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these left-wing guerrilla movements started emerging,

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claiming that they could fix what the state had ignored.

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The most important became the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia,

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or FARC.

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Extreme inequality is just one of those

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annoying problems that eventually starts carrying rifles,

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and FARC wanted to Overthrow the existing political order,

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so wealthy landowners and the Colombian

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government obviously preferred the existing order,

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so they backed local defense groups to fight the guerrillas,

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and because Colombia felt one irregular army just wasn't enough,

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many of these groups eventually turned

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into powerful right-wing paramilitary organizations,

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operating largely outside the government control.

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So you had this Marxist groups versus these right-wing groups.

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But by the 1980s,

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both sides discovered the same financial innovation,

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cocaine.

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FARC taxed cocoa growers,

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protected trafficking routes,

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and used the money to fund its insurgency.

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Meanwhile,

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the paramilitary groups did the same thing,

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while also protecting landowners and businesses.

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So what started as this political conflict

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over inequality,

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gradually transformed into a much uglier war

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where armed groups fought over territory,

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because territory meant coca,

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coca meant cocaine,

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and cocaine meant money.

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And so thousands of people dying from overdoses in America years later,

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and the brutal cartels throughout Latin America

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really have their root in a fight

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over ancient problems of geography and inequality.

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However,

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by the late 1990s,

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both FARC and the paramilitary groups

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were using that money to fund kidnapping,

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assassinations,

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bombing,

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and just massacring.

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Of civilians.

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Equality had been reached,

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it was settled,

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it would be a miserable situation for all.

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At this point,

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calling it a war on drugs was starting to really undersell the situation.

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It was more like a civil war that was financed by cocaine,

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but the country was facing the very real

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threat of potential collapse in the late 1990s.

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The situation was getting bad.

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The United States government was watching all of this unfold,

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looking at Colombia and seeing several

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American security problems merging into one.

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You had the cocaine that was being produced there,

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flooding onto the US streets,

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and the money was financing these

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increasingly powerful armed groups near America.

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So the US started lending military support.

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First came the American Special Forces advisors,

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intelligence operatives,

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weapons,

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and they helped dismantle the Medellin and Cali cartels.

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Then the US military backed the hunt that killed.

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The drug pin Pablo Escobar.

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Then in 2000,

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came something much larger,

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Plan Colombia.

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Beginning in the year 2000,

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under President Clinton,

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Washington DC poured in over a billion

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dollars into Colombia's military security program.

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America had officially moved past the PowerPoint phase of the relationship.

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Over the following years and through different administrations,

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the United States provided more than $10 billion in assistance

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through Plan Colombia,

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making them the third largest recipient.

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Of American military hardware anywhere in the world,

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just behind Israel and Egypt.

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Colombia became the United States' closest security partner in the region.

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Most people have no idea how deep that military cooperation really went.

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The CIA assisted in bombing campaigns,

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US Navy SEALs and Green Berets routinely were

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on the ground advising and conducting missions.

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America sent thousands of their own

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private military contractors into the country,

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and the result of the program is heavily debated.

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Some called it a huge success,

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a model of how to defeat the.

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Type of narco-terrorists and left and right-wing groups.

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Others called it full of corruption and ethical problems.

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Colombia's Truth commission claimed that it

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resulted in serious human rights violations,

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where US trained units were murdering political activists.

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But the end result was that the Colombian military

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gradually started retaking territory back from these groups,

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and by the late 2000s,

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FARC was in serious trouble.

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Its command was being systematically decapitated,

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and from this pressure,

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eventually,

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In 2016,

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FARC signed a peace agreement and formally demobilized.

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They agreed to essentially lay down their arms

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and become non-violent.

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Watching your senior leadership disappear one

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by one sometimes encourages peace negotiations.

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For the United States and Colombia,

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this looked like a massive victory at first,

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and in some ways,

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it was.

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Colombia became dramatically more secure

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and less violent,

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but there was still an important question

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that would haunt us to this day,

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as we'll see.

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What happens to the cocaine business when you destroy the people running it?

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And it turns out the answer was,

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someone else runs it.

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Cocaine demand was still alive in America.

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So after 2016,

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00:11:03.710 --> 00:11:05.630
the market for it just fragmented.

265
00:11:05.919 --> 00:11:10.380
The smaller criminal organizations in Colombia moved into the spaces left behind.

266
00:11:10.599 --> 00:11:12.820
You cannot bomb civilians

267
00:11:13.080 --> 00:11:15.840
who just wanna have a fun night at the club on the weekend,

268
00:11:15.960 --> 00:11:17.520
have a little bit of cocaine for it.

269
00:11:17.599 --> 00:11:17.630
Well,

270
00:11:17.679 --> 00:11:17.840
I mean,

271
00:11:17.880 --> 00:11:18.030
well,

272
00:11:18.039 --> 00:11:19.039
technically you can,

273
00:11:19.119 --> 00:11:19.419
but

274
00:11:19.780 --> 00:11:20.460
But you shouldn't.

275
00:11:20.750 --> 00:11:23.570
This helps explain what happened six years later though,

276
00:11:23.630 --> 00:11:25.190
in 2022,

277
00:11:25.320 --> 00:11:27.590
Colombians elected Gustavo Petra,

278
00:11:27.710 --> 00:11:30.109
the country's first left-wing president,

279
00:11:30.349 --> 00:11:33.809
and he was elected on a promise to break with the security policies

280
00:11:33.989 --> 00:11:36.250
that had dominated the previous decades.

281
00:11:36.400 --> 00:11:38.950
His signature idea was called total peace,

282
00:11:38.960 --> 00:11:40.090
or pass total.

283
00:11:40.270 --> 00:11:43.739
Instead of defeating Colombia's remaining armed groups one by one,

284
00:11:43.750 --> 00:11:45.619
violently in a bloody battle,

285
00:11:45.909 --> 00:11:46.900
his government would try to,

286
00:11:47.039 --> 00:11:50.460
Negotiate simultaneously with guerrillas like the ELN,

287
00:11:50.799 --> 00:11:51.750
the FARC dissidents,

288
00:11:51.840 --> 00:11:53.950
and even major criminal organizations.

289
00:11:54.239 --> 00:11:56.719
The theory was that after 60 years of fighting,

290
00:11:56.880 --> 00:12:00.390
maybe Colombia could finally negotiate its way out of the conflict.

291
00:12:00.750 --> 00:12:03.479
A later released secret recording from September 2,

292
00:12:03.590 --> 00:12:04.780
2022

293
00:12:04.960 --> 00:12:07.000
revealed what this meant in practice.

294
00:12:07.320 --> 00:12:08.570
When Daniel Rita,

295
00:12:08.799 --> 00:12:10.590
the high commissioner of Peace,

296
00:12:10.840 --> 00:12:12.479
was sitting in a room in Urba,

297
00:12:12.679 --> 00:12:14.099
the banana country of Northern.

298
00:12:14.210 --> 00:12:14.530
Colombia,

299
00:12:14.570 --> 00:12:15.840
if I'm saying that correctly,

300
00:12:16.010 --> 00:12:17.380
apologize if I'm not,

301
00:12:17.650 --> 00:12:19.169
but he was the man that's in charge

302
00:12:19.169 --> 00:12:22.190
of running negotiations with the cartel in Colombia.

303
00:12:22.409 --> 00:12:25.929
Across from Danilo sits a commander of the Clan de Gulfo,

304
00:12:26.200 --> 00:12:27.570
nicknamed Geronimo.

305
00:12:27.770 --> 00:12:29.690
The Clan de Gulfo is the largest drug

306
00:12:29.690 --> 00:12:31.840
trafficking organization in Colombia at this time.

307
00:12:32.049 --> 00:12:32.960
And on the voice recording,

308
00:12:33.090 --> 00:12:35.119
Danilo makes the cartel an offer,

309
00:12:35.440 --> 00:12:35.729
saying,

310
00:12:35.820 --> 00:12:36.250
quote,

311
00:12:36.530 --> 00:12:37.679
let's play freeze,

312
00:12:37.770 --> 00:12:38.909
and this is shocking.

313
00:12:39.280 --> 00:12:41.330
Bruda tells them that there will be no.

314
00:12:41.489 --> 00:12:42.460
Comings of the cartel.

315
00:12:42.659 --> 00:12:46.419
He offers an agreement that there will be a purge of the Colombian police,

316
00:12:46.500 --> 00:12:47.200
the military,

317
00:12:47.299 --> 00:12:50.000
and the intelligence services inside Colombia

318
00:12:50.260 --> 00:12:52.239
to clear out any officers who might

319
00:12:52.460 --> 00:12:56.599
sabotage this process that he's trying to do of pausing bombing.

320
00:12:56.859 --> 00:12:59.159
More than 30 Colombian generals

321
00:12:59.419 --> 00:13:01.280
were pushed out of the armed forces

322
00:13:01.419 --> 00:13:05.609
in the largest shake-up of high command in Colombia in recent memory.

323
00:13:05.900 --> 00:13:08.619
This is an extraordinary amount of trust.

324
00:13:09.260 --> 00:13:10.659
To placed in people whose,

325
00:13:10.739 --> 00:13:15.059
whose job description includes run Colombia's largest drug trafficking

326
00:13:15.169 --> 00:13:15.419
organization.

327
00:13:15.700 --> 00:13:16.739
But at the same moment,

328
00:13:17.020 --> 00:13:20.380
Petro's own defense minister in Colombia was publicly

329
00:13:20.380 --> 00:13:23.140
telling the country that bombings were not prohibited.

330
00:13:23.419 --> 00:13:23.900
But meanwhile,

331
00:13:23.940 --> 00:13:24.880
the private message

332
00:13:25.380 --> 00:13:26.549
delivered to one of the most

333
00:13:26.594 --> 00:13:29.755
Powerful criminal organizations in the entire hemisphere

334
00:13:29.994 --> 00:13:31.854
was that the state would stand down,

335
00:13:32.114 --> 00:13:32.614
kind of

336
00:13:32.875 --> 00:13:34.575
sending a little bit of mixed signals there.

337
00:13:34.674 --> 00:13:36.575
But Petro's theory of peace

338
00:13:36.835 --> 00:13:38.674
wasn't really crazy on face value.

339
00:13:38.794 --> 00:13:41.315
Colombia had been fighting its armed groups for decades and

340
00:13:41.315 --> 00:13:43.914
had buried hundreds of thousands of people doing it.

341
00:13:44.179 --> 00:13:46.000
You cannot bomb your way to peace,

342
00:13:46.450 --> 00:13:47.650
and the argument went,

343
00:13:47.929 --> 00:13:49.090
let's try the opposite.

344
00:13:49.219 --> 00:13:49.489
However,

345
00:13:49.539 --> 00:13:52.239
the problem is these groups have turned into,

346
00:13:52.859 --> 00:13:54.599
from being politically motivated

347
00:13:54.789 --> 00:13:57.380
to now mainly being motivated by profit.

348
00:13:57.659 --> 00:13:59.900
One local leader said to the Financial Times,

349
00:14:00.020 --> 00:14:00.450
quote,

350
00:14:00.619 --> 00:14:01.179
in the past,

351
00:14:01.219 --> 00:14:02.390
you could point to a group,

352
00:14:02.460 --> 00:14:03.840
sit down with the people involved,

353
00:14:04.380 --> 00:14:05.489
talk things through.

354
00:14:05.739 --> 00:14:09.760
We're now dealing with groups that are driven primarily by economic interests.

355
00:14:10.140 --> 00:14:10.340
Today,

356
00:14:10.429 --> 00:14:12.739
the product is cocaine instead of revolution.

357
00:14:13.166 --> 00:14:15.695
So fighting the war on drugs may be futile,

358
00:14:15.955 --> 00:14:18.776
but not fighting it can be even more futile.

359
00:14:18.955 --> 00:14:19.755
In 2022,

360
00:14:19.835 --> 00:14:21.026
the Clan de Gulfo

361
00:14:21.395 --> 00:14:23.835
had little over 4000 members and a

362
00:14:23.835 --> 00:14:27.495
presence in only 145 of Colombia's municipalities.

363
00:14:27.796 --> 00:14:28.955
By 2025,

364
00:14:29.036 --> 00:14:31.786
it had more than doubled in size and territory,

365
00:14:32.075 --> 00:14:36.866
had nearly 10,000 members and a presence in 338 municipalities.

366
00:14:37.116 --> 00:14:41.395
Researchers at the Human Rights Watch tie that expansion to the sharp drop.

367
00:14:41.492 --> 00:14:42.791
In military pressure

368
00:14:43.091 --> 00:14:46.932
during the years that the group was supposedly being talked toward peace.

369
00:14:47.291 --> 00:14:49.692
One way I've heard the war on drugs be described is like,

370
00:14:49.731 --> 00:14:51.752
it's like a war on cancer.

371
00:14:52.041 --> 00:14:52.452
If you,

372
00:14:52.541 --> 00:14:53.651
if you don't fight it,

373
00:14:53.771 --> 00:14:55.382
it's just going to keep building up.

374
00:14:55.492 --> 00:14:57.721
So while the government was negotiating peace,

375
00:14:57.952 --> 00:15:01.481
the narco groups negotiated an aggressive growth strategy.

376
00:15:01.731 --> 00:15:02.132
Meanwhile,

377
00:15:02.252 --> 00:15:05.202
the ELN and FARC had some of the last groups

378
00:15:05.372 --> 00:15:08.851
that control the majority of Colombia's coca-growing regions.

379
00:15:09.252 --> 00:15:10.012
They ran cocaine.

380
00:15:10.388 --> 00:15:11.497
Processing laboratories,

381
00:15:11.557 --> 00:15:13.067
they manage the smuggling routes,

382
00:15:13.107 --> 00:15:15.687
and they maintain the direct working relationships

383
00:15:15.987 --> 00:15:16.297
with,

384
00:15:16.427 --> 00:15:17.057
you know it,

385
00:15:17.307 --> 00:15:18.737
the Mexican cartels.

386
00:15:19.107 --> 00:15:22.687
Because the Mexican CJNG and the Sinaella cartel

387
00:15:22.968 --> 00:15:24.418
don't grow their own product.

388
00:15:24.538 --> 00:15:27.177
They have to buy it upstream from Colombian suppliers.

389
00:15:27.468 --> 00:15:30.937
And the scale of what these groups have built is just staggering.

390
00:15:31.138 --> 00:15:31.697
Colombia,

391
00:15:31.867 --> 00:15:34.578
due partly to new methods in cultivating crops,

392
00:15:34.877 --> 00:15:38.607
now produces more cocaine than at any point in its history.

393
00:15:38.854 --> 00:15:43.513
Surpassing even the heyday of Pablo Escobar's cartel of the 1990s.

394
00:15:43.723 --> 00:15:47.643
The United Nations has documented record cultivation levels.

395
00:15:47.953 --> 00:15:49.963
The product moves north through Ecuador,

396
00:15:50.044 --> 00:15:51.004
through Central America,

397
00:15:51.044 --> 00:15:51.924
and into Mexico,

398
00:15:52.004 --> 00:15:54.504
where the cartels own that final delivery.

399
00:15:54.804 --> 00:15:57.883
They're now producing something like triple the amount of coca.

400
00:15:58.124 --> 00:15:58.924
In the ELN,

401
00:15:59.073 --> 00:16:03.184
they read the former president's appetite for dialogue and negotiation

402
00:16:03.403 --> 00:16:04.294
as weakness,

403
00:16:04.443 --> 00:16:07.364
and moved aggressively to seize cocaine-producing territory.

404
00:16:07.880 --> 00:16:09.849
that it had been fighting over for years.

405
00:16:09.940 --> 00:16:11.299
In January 2025,

406
00:16:11.380 --> 00:16:13.559
this is when the situation came to a head

407
00:16:13.700 --> 00:16:15.000
and collapsed entirely.

408
00:16:15.260 --> 00:16:19.679
The ELN launched coordinated attacks against the FARC dissident factions

409
00:16:19.900 --> 00:16:22.000
in a dense cocoa growing area

410
00:16:22.380 --> 00:16:23.640
near the Venezuelan border.

411
00:16:23.809 --> 00:16:26.190
50,000 people were displaced by this fighting.

412
00:16:26.299 --> 00:16:29.799
The government declared a 90-day state of emergency,

413
00:16:29.940 --> 00:16:31.140
and the ceasefire that

414
00:16:31.460 --> 00:16:34.719
former President Petro had spent years keeping alive,

415
00:16:34.929 --> 00:16:35.979
was falling apart.

416
00:16:36.429 --> 00:16:36.789
By then,

417
00:16:36.950 --> 00:16:39.090
total peace was starting to suffer from

418
00:16:39.549 --> 00:16:40.700
a real branding problem.

419
00:16:40.789 --> 00:16:43.739
The violence escalated significantly in 2026,

420
00:16:43.989 --> 00:16:46.429
with armed factions staging attacks with

421
00:16:46.429 --> 00:16:49.570
explosives and drones across Colombia's southwest.

422
00:16:49.869 --> 00:16:53.500
Armed groups blocked roads and detonated vehicle-borne bombs.

423
00:16:53.750 --> 00:16:55.070
The Pan-American Highway,

424
00:16:55.179 --> 00:16:57.940
one of Colombia's most important transit corridors,

425
00:16:58.229 --> 00:16:59.429
was totally shut down.

426
00:16:59.789 --> 00:17:01.289
What these groups were doing here

427
00:17:01.409 --> 00:17:03.409
was establishing leverage for the future.

428
00:17:03.549 --> 00:17:04.858
They were demonstrating to

429
00:17:05.030 --> 00:17:06.709
whatever government came in next,

430
00:17:06.989 --> 00:17:09.608
that it had the capability to cause serious damage,

431
00:17:10.229 --> 00:17:11.368
and they would use it.

432
00:17:11.660 --> 00:17:15.069
The bombs were a negotiating position that was delivered in blood.

433
00:17:15.459 --> 00:17:17.260
So when Delarilla was elected,

434
00:17:17.300 --> 00:17:20.650
it seemed like the country was calling once again for major change,

435
00:17:20.939 --> 00:17:22.569
but this time in the opposite direction,

436
00:17:22.739 --> 00:17:23.420
to the right.

437
00:17:23.780 --> 00:17:25.598
Similar to American politics

438
00:17:25.739 --> 00:17:26.839
that I've noticed where

439
00:17:27.060 --> 00:17:29.449
voters swing between the two sides over the years.

440
00:17:29.699 --> 00:17:32.920
Esprilla is a 47-year-old criminal defense lawyer,

441
00:17:33.010 --> 00:17:34.180
nicknamed El Tiger.

442
00:17:34.689 --> 00:17:37.530
He built a media empire alongside his legal career,

443
00:17:37.729 --> 00:17:38.930
appearing in promotional videos,

444
00:17:39.010 --> 00:17:40.800
singing classical songs in Spanish,

445
00:17:41.050 --> 00:17:43.719
launching a fashion brand and driving a Rolls-Royce.

446
00:17:43.930 --> 00:17:48.030
He had never run for a political office before and he had no party infrastructure,

447
00:17:48.250 --> 00:17:48.869
and he ran

448
00:17:49.089 --> 00:17:50.599
on a pretty simple message of,

449
00:17:50.969 --> 00:17:52.069
we're gonna bomb the

450
00:17:52.439 --> 00:17:53.359
cartels again.

451
00:17:53.650 --> 00:17:53.890
He said,

452
00:17:53.969 --> 00:17:54.239
quote,

453
00:17:54.410 --> 00:17:57.750
We will start immediately with the bombing of narco-terrorist camps

454
00:17:57.939 --> 00:17:59.069
and with fumigation.

455
00:17:59.329 --> 00:18:03.290
Any criminal who does not surrender will be taken down as the law allows.

456
00:18:03.680 --> 00:18:05.140
So Columbia had moved from,

457
00:18:05.439 --> 00:18:06.300
let's talk

458
00:18:06.479 --> 00:18:07.020
to,

459
00:18:07.560 --> 00:18:08.910
you have until we find you.

460
00:18:09.300 --> 00:18:14.290
But there's another reason Colombia matters so much more to Washington DC today

461
00:18:14.469 --> 00:18:17.939
than it did during the original Planned Columbia 20 years ago.

462
00:18:18.229 --> 00:18:18.810
The stuff

463
00:18:18.939 --> 00:18:19.930
underneath the ground

464
00:18:20.430 --> 00:18:22.329
has become strategically important.

465
00:18:22.589 --> 00:18:22.910
Copper,

466
00:18:22.949 --> 00:18:23.310
nickel,

467
00:18:23.349 --> 00:18:27.310
and other minerals obviously existed in the early 2000s,

468
00:18:27.550 --> 00:18:28.569
but the difference is

469
00:18:28.790 --> 00:18:30.219
now what we build with them.

470
00:18:30.510 --> 00:18:34.619
Modern data centers and increasingly sophisticated military systems

471
00:18:34.630 --> 00:18:37.586
require enormous amounts of mineral supply chains.

472
00:18:37.745 --> 00:18:39.906
The high-tech future runs on the cloud,

473
00:18:40.145 --> 00:18:42.806
and an unreasonable amount of special rocks.

474
00:18:42.946 --> 00:18:46.186
The Pentagon specifically depends on critical materials for

475
00:18:46.186 --> 00:18:49.125
everything from jet engines to missile guidance systems because

476
00:18:49.336 --> 00:18:51.975
warfare now requires a mining degree apparently,

477
00:18:52.186 --> 00:18:55.145
and demand is colliding with an even bigger rival,

478
00:18:55.465 --> 00:18:55.885
China.

479
00:18:56.076 --> 00:18:57.225
Over the last 20 years,

480
00:18:57.465 --> 00:18:59.206
China built an enormous lead

481
00:18:59.345 --> 00:19:01.046
in accounting for more than 90%.

482
00:19:01.251 --> 00:19:04.452
percent of the growth in global copper smelting capacity.

483
00:19:04.722 --> 00:19:07.822
So America looks at copper deposits in Colombia

484
00:19:08.261 --> 00:19:09.521
entirely differently

485
00:19:09.661 --> 00:19:11.281
than it did in the 2000s.

486
00:19:11.582 --> 00:19:11.942
Back then,

487
00:19:11.982 --> 00:19:13.661
it was largely an economic resource,

488
00:19:13.781 --> 00:19:15.052
but in 2026,

489
00:19:15.261 --> 00:19:19.082
it can also represent one more supply chain that the United States

490
00:19:19.381 --> 00:19:21.332
doesn't have to depend on China for.

491
00:19:21.702 --> 00:19:24.842
China has imposed a growing number of export restrictions

492
00:19:25.021 --> 00:19:26.982
on strategically important minerals.

493
00:19:27.177 --> 00:19:29.657
While the United States still relies on China as

494
00:19:29.657 --> 00:19:33.637
a major source for 14 of the 33 critical minerals

495
00:19:33.858 --> 00:19:36.338
where America is most import-dependent.

496
00:19:36.728 --> 00:19:39.078
Suddenly made in China is starting to sound like

497
00:19:39.297 --> 00:19:40.637
a hostage situation.

498
00:19:40.978 --> 00:19:44.858
The International Energy Agency put the scale of this problem into perspective in

499
00:19:44.858 --> 00:19:49.407
its 2026 Global Critical Minerals Outlook white paper that I suffered through.

500
00:19:49.618 --> 00:19:52.047
It warned that if China fully implemented

501
00:19:52.047 --> 00:19:54.963
its expanded Rare earth export restrictions,

502
00:19:55.134 --> 00:19:59.154
as much as $6 trillion worth of annual production outside China

503
00:19:59.374 --> 00:20:01.524
could be put at risk through the automotive,

504
00:20:01.813 --> 00:20:02.713
high-tech energy,

505
00:20:02.774 --> 00:20:04.274
and the defense industries.

506
00:20:04.534 --> 00:20:07.473
Nothing makes policymakers discover geology faster

507
00:20:08.014 --> 00:20:10.524
than somebody else controlling their special rocks.

508
00:20:10.854 --> 00:20:13.213
So Colombia's armed groups operate across the

509
00:20:13.213 --> 00:20:15.354
same remote territory that the new government

510
00:20:15.813 --> 00:20:18.894
wants open for legitimate mining and foreign investment.

511
00:20:19.219 --> 00:20:21.119
So regaining state control here

512
00:20:21.260 --> 00:20:25.400
can simultaneously disrupt drug networks and bad people

513
00:20:25.660 --> 00:20:29.739
while securing infrastructure and making new mineral projects possible.

514
00:20:30.020 --> 00:20:32.199
I'm not saying that America restarted the war

515
00:20:32.569 --> 00:20:33.420
on drugs to,

516
00:20:33.619 --> 00:20:34.140
to steal.

517
00:20:34.305 --> 00:20:35.025
Colombia's minerals,

518
00:20:35.074 --> 00:20:35.454
but

519
00:20:35.675 --> 00:20:37.635
$20 is $20.

520
00:20:37.954 --> 00:20:40.194
What it does really mean is something more interesting,

521
00:20:40.234 --> 00:20:40.775
I think,

522
00:20:41.114 --> 00:20:42.944
because compared with 20 years ago,

523
00:20:43.364 --> 00:20:46.175
America now has another major strategic reason

524
00:20:46.635 --> 00:20:49.415
to care about who controls Colombian territory.

525
00:20:49.915 --> 00:20:52.795
So now that Colombia is fully on the US side and

526
00:20:52.795 --> 00:20:56.064
bought in on this intensified war on drugs and the cartels,

527
00:20:56.314 --> 00:20:57.584
the obvious question is,

528
00:20:57.915 --> 00:20:59.714
what happens if it actually works?

529
00:21:00.050 --> 00:21:00.930
Like Ecuador,

530
00:21:01.010 --> 00:21:04.640
which struck a similar agreement with Washington DC this year,

531
00:21:04.890 --> 00:21:09.069
Colombia will soon see a much larger American military presence on the ground,

532
00:21:09.579 --> 00:21:10.760
more intelligence sharing,

533
00:21:10.839 --> 00:21:11.410
more training,

534
00:21:11.530 --> 00:21:13.109
more special operations support,

535
00:21:13.479 --> 00:21:15.329
and more direct military action.

536
00:21:15.420 --> 00:21:19.040
In the form of airstrikes and raids against trafficking networks,

537
00:21:19.300 --> 00:21:20.439
and tactically speaking,

538
00:21:20.619 --> 00:21:22.180
that might actually work.

539
00:21:22.369 --> 00:21:23.300
The problem is though,

540
00:21:23.500 --> 00:21:25.380
that the cocaine trade historically has

541
00:21:25.380 --> 00:21:29.239
survived successful military tactical campaigns before

542
00:21:29.579 --> 00:21:30.719
by doing something.

543
00:21:31.050 --> 00:21:32.109
Annoyingly simple,

544
00:21:32.609 --> 00:21:33.880
moving area codes.

545
00:21:34.170 --> 00:21:36.150
The DEA hates this one trick.

546
00:21:36.550 --> 00:21:38.540
This is essentially what happened after the

547
00:21:38.540 --> 00:21:41.130
major Colombian cartels were broken apart.

548
00:21:41.369 --> 00:21:43.319
The Cali cartel was dismantled,

549
00:21:43.650 --> 00:21:45.750
pressure intensified inside Colombia,

550
00:21:46.010 --> 00:21:48.599
and instead of cocaine businesses just disappearing,

551
00:21:48.849 --> 00:21:52.910
much of that trafficking infrastructure migrated north toward Mexico.

552
00:21:53.089 --> 00:21:54.469
And so Colombia today

553
00:21:54.849 --> 00:21:55.359
is so

554
00:21:55.531 --> 00:21:59.911
dominant that any serious disruption there would create an enormous vacuum.

555
00:22:00.052 --> 00:22:01.852
According to UN-linked estimates,

556
00:22:02.131 --> 00:22:05.212
Colombia produces roughly 2/3 of the world's cocaine,

557
00:22:05.452 --> 00:22:09.192
but the other major coca-growing countries are sitting right next door.

558
00:22:09.452 --> 00:22:13.682
Peru already accounts for roughly 25% of the global coca cultivation,

559
00:22:13.692 --> 00:22:15.891
while Bolivia produces another 8%.

560
00:22:16.171 --> 00:22:16.631
So together,

561
00:22:16.771 --> 00:22:17.212
Colombia,

562
00:22:17.371 --> 00:22:17.712
Peru,

563
00:22:17.771 --> 00:22:18.472
and Bolivia

564
00:22:18.881 --> 00:22:19.692
account for roughly.

565
00:22:19.904 --> 00:22:22.443
99% of the world's cocoa supply.

566
00:22:22.693 --> 00:22:27.163
So if America and Colombia forces squeeze production hard enough in Colombia,

567
00:22:27.413 --> 00:22:29.994
traffickers don't necessarily disappear.

568
00:22:30.134 --> 00:22:31.833
They start looking across the border.

569
00:22:32.053 --> 00:22:34.203
And this is what makes Peru so important,

570
00:22:34.573 --> 00:22:36.973
because Washington is already building the infrastructure

571
00:22:36.973 --> 00:22:38.864
for a much deeper relationship there,

572
00:22:38.894 --> 00:22:41.894
and in many ways it was already built decades ago.

573
00:22:42.374 --> 00:22:44.134
Drug trafficking is many things though.

574
00:22:44.566 --> 00:22:46.326
But geographically loyal,

575
00:22:46.615 --> 00:22:47.515
is not one of them.

576
00:22:47.776 --> 00:22:51.526
Peru cooperates with the United States on counter-narcotics missions,

577
00:22:51.536 --> 00:22:53.066
and last year its government approved the

578
00:22:53.066 --> 00:22:55.215
entry of American troops for training missions.

579
00:22:55.485 --> 00:22:56.176
At the same time,

580
00:22:56.255 --> 00:22:59.895
the US announced roughly a billion dollars.5 million dollars in investments

581
00:23:00.095 --> 00:23:02.676
to modernize a Peruvian naval facility

582
00:23:02.845 --> 00:23:06.656
located about 50 miles from China's massive Chancy port there.

583
00:23:06.975 --> 00:23:07.095
So,

584
00:23:07.215 --> 00:23:08.475
the cocoa plant has.

585
00:23:08.618 --> 00:23:10.677
Grown everywhere from Sri Lanka

586
00:23:10.817 --> 00:23:11.578
to Indonesia,

587
00:23:11.628 --> 00:23:12.797
to even Taiwan.

588
00:23:13.017 --> 00:23:16.458
But why is it mainly just in Latin America that it thrives?

589
00:23:16.537 --> 00:23:16.697
Well,

590
00:23:16.937 --> 00:23:18.838
Latin America dominates that trade

591
00:23:19.218 --> 00:23:22.478
because the regions combine ideal growing conditions

592
00:23:22.618 --> 00:23:25.338
with enormous remote isolated areas,

593
00:23:25.697 --> 00:23:27.128
weak state control,

594
00:23:27.258 --> 00:23:28.537
and most importantly,

595
00:23:28.858 --> 00:23:33.078
proximity to what has historically been the world's largest cocaine market,

596
00:23:33.578 --> 00:23:34.618
the United States.

597
00:23:35.050 --> 00:23:36.040
Entertainment lawyers,

598
00:23:36.050 --> 00:23:36.599
I'm guessing.

599
00:23:36.729 --> 00:23:39.680
The traffickers understand this geopolitical reality though.

600
00:23:39.890 --> 00:23:43.229
Authorities have found experimental coca plantations

601
00:23:43.229 --> 00:23:45.209
in southern Mexico and Guatemala,

602
00:23:45.449 --> 00:23:47.930
which indicates some networks are testing whether

603
00:23:47.930 --> 00:23:50.829
they can move cultivation closer to the consumer

604
00:23:50.969 --> 00:23:52.290
and shorten that supply chain.

605
00:23:52.439 --> 00:23:55.910
But that's the real problem that's facing the United States and Colombia.

606
00:23:56.119 --> 00:23:59.645
It can cooperate with Peru and All these other countries across the region,

607
00:23:59.864 --> 00:24:01.224
it can attack laboratories,

608
00:24:01.295 --> 00:24:01.704
they can

609
00:24:01.905 --> 00:24:03.094
intercept shipments,

610
00:24:03.104 --> 00:24:06.454
and special forces can dismantle trafficking organizations.

611
00:24:06.665 --> 00:24:07.625
The CIA

612
00:24:07.864 --> 00:24:09.165
can murder a bunch of

613
00:24:09.344 --> 00:24:10.645
cartel bosses there.

614
00:24:10.864 --> 00:24:12.984
But every time pressure becomes intense enough,

615
00:24:13.224 --> 00:24:14.135
in one place,

616
00:24:14.305 --> 00:24:17.405
the business has incentives to reappear someplace else.

617
00:24:17.704 --> 00:24:19.645
So the new war on drugs today

618
00:24:19.824 --> 00:24:24.739
is becoming a A lot more of a larger fight over where the cocaine trade

619
00:24:24.959 --> 00:24:26.400
is allowed to exist next,

620
00:24:26.520 --> 00:24:27.260
or if at all.

621
00:24:27.439 --> 00:24:30.969
But there's a problem with fighting the drug trade on the streets like this,

622
00:24:31.199 --> 00:24:33.069
that they've learned over the years.

623
00:24:33.319 --> 00:24:34.349
You can bomb a lab,

624
00:24:34.430 --> 00:24:35.339
you can kill a commander,

625
00:24:35.520 --> 00:24:36.790
you can seize a shipment,

626
00:24:37.040 --> 00:24:41.310
but if the political system protecting that entire network stays intact,

627
00:24:41.719 --> 00:24:43.560
somebody else eventually takes their place.

628
00:24:44.084 --> 00:24:46.984
And that is where this story moves north to Mexico,

629
00:24:47.255 --> 00:24:48.604
because for the first time ever,

630
00:24:48.614 --> 00:24:50.525
something historic is now happening.

631
00:24:50.734 --> 00:24:53.614
The FBI is going after the politicians accused

632
00:24:53.614 --> 00:24:55.915
of helping keep the entire machine running.

633
00:24:56.015 --> 00:24:57.734
The US Justice Department is charging

634
00:24:57.734 --> 00:25:00.994
Governor Ruben Rochamoya with drug trafficking

635
00:25:01.135 --> 00:25:02.555
and weapons offenses.

636
00:25:03.454 --> 00:25:03.604
falsas.

637
00:25:10.829 --> 00:25:12.050
The war on drugs

638
00:25:12.189 --> 00:25:13.989
has finally reached upper management,

639
00:25:14.219 --> 00:25:17.469
which is why I think it raises a series of bigger questions.

640
00:25:17.790 --> 00:25:21.790
Is Washington DC finally attacking the corrupt political system?

641
00:25:21.869 --> 00:25:22.189
System

642
00:25:22.709 --> 00:25:24.869
inside both America and Mexico

643
00:25:25.109 --> 00:25:28.410
that has allowed the cartels to survive and thrive,

644
00:25:28.739 --> 00:25:29.209
or

645
00:25:29.430 --> 00:25:33.270
is it using corruption charges to influence who governs Mexico?

646
00:25:33.469 --> 00:25:36.880
And why are Mexican politicians suddenly turning on one another?

647
00:25:38.069 --> 00:25:38.760
On May 11th,

648
00:25:38.839 --> 00:25:39.619
2026,

649
00:25:39.719 --> 00:25:44.260
Geraldo Sanchez entered the state of Arizona through the Nogales border crossing

650
00:25:44.400 --> 00:25:46.310
in the sweltering desert sun.

651
00:25:46.560 --> 00:25:47.800
Almost immediately though,

652
00:25:48.099 --> 00:25:49.709
US Marshals surrounded him.

653
00:25:49.959 --> 00:25:51.189
They slip on handcuffs,

654
00:25:51.319 --> 00:25:52.780
arresting him on the spot

655
00:25:52.959 --> 00:25:55.390
for a whole bunch of drug-related charges,

656
00:25:55.719 --> 00:25:58.119
including narcotics importation conspiracy,

657
00:25:58.219 --> 00:25:59.699
possession of machine guns.

658
00:25:59.959 --> 00:26:02.420
The same day he appears in a federal court.

659
00:26:02.685 --> 00:26:05.145
Before being transferred as soon as possible

660
00:26:05.484 --> 00:26:07.074
to the Southern District of New York,

661
00:26:07.285 --> 00:26:09.925
where he will await trial without bail.

662
00:26:10.045 --> 00:26:11.344
His potential sentence,

663
00:26:11.405 --> 00:26:13.344
40 years to life in prison.

664
00:26:13.685 --> 00:26:17.185
Normally you'd think this would be a cartel boss receiving this treatment,

665
00:26:17.604 --> 00:26:21.785
but the man in question is a 66-year-old ex-politician from Mexico,

666
00:26:22.125 --> 00:26:23.675
a high-ranking one at that,

667
00:26:23.885 --> 00:26:27.025
the former security minister for the Sinaloa state.

668
00:26:27.369 --> 00:26:31.209
He was taken in at the same time as Enrique Diaz Vega,

669
00:26:31.489 --> 00:26:33.589
the state's former finance minister,

670
00:26:33.770 --> 00:26:34.959
and strangely enough,

671
00:26:35.290 --> 00:26:37.469
Vega might have actually crossed the border

672
00:26:37.770 --> 00:26:39.079
in order to surrender.

673
00:26:39.449 --> 00:26:42.489
Most former finance ministers retired to the private sector.

674
00:26:42.810 --> 00:26:45.130
Vega had chosen the Southern District of New York.

675
00:26:45.959 --> 00:26:49.770
These two are just the first in a long line of dominoes

676
00:26:49.930 --> 00:26:51.910
that the United States hopes to topple.

677
00:26:52.094 --> 00:26:54.604
In order to dismantle the Mexican cartels,

678
00:26:54.885 --> 00:26:58.974
which is why Sanchez is one of the 10 politicians and officials

679
00:26:59.175 --> 00:27:00.295
from Sinaloa

680
00:27:00.734 --> 00:27:04.114
alone already formally indicted by the US

681
00:27:04.255 --> 00:27:08.454
for drug-related charges and ties to the infamous Sinaloa cartel,

682
00:27:08.895 --> 00:27:10.834
including Sinaloa's sitting governor,

683
00:27:11.094 --> 00:27:12.655
Ruben Rocha Moya,

684
00:27:12.854 --> 00:27:14.555
who stepped down from his post

685
00:27:14.694 --> 00:27:16.694
after his name appeared on the indictment.

686
00:27:17.130 --> 00:27:19.790
The highest ranking politician in Mexico

687
00:27:19.930 --> 00:27:21.109
to be charged so far,

688
00:27:21.650 --> 00:27:26.010
but as DEA administrator Terry Cole testified in front of the Senate,

689
00:27:26.449 --> 00:27:27.920
more is coming.

690
00:27:28.170 --> 00:27:30.489
Roach's indictment is quote unquote,

691
00:27:30.530 --> 00:27:31.550
just the start.

692
00:27:31.849 --> 00:27:34.510
All of this is happening because the FBI

693
00:27:34.650 --> 00:27:36.150
has switched its focus

694
00:27:36.410 --> 00:27:36.969
from arresting.

695
00:27:37.364 --> 00:27:40.625
kingpins and cartel Sicario foot soldiers

696
00:27:40.964 --> 00:27:43.064
to directly targeting the people

697
00:27:43.244 --> 00:27:45.734
that enabled them to function for so long,

698
00:27:45.964 --> 00:27:48.305
the corrupt politicians and officials,

699
00:27:48.685 --> 00:27:51.584
because cutting off the head of the snake at the cartel level

700
00:27:51.814 --> 00:27:52.185
has

701
00:27:52.305 --> 00:27:54.805
often only led to more violence.

702
00:27:55.125 --> 00:27:57.094
So this is a brand new strategy,

703
00:27:57.324 --> 00:27:59.665
and they're doing so based on tips from

704
00:28:00.050 --> 00:28:01.239
Cartel bosses

705
00:28:01.489 --> 00:28:03.189
and other politicians,

706
00:28:03.489 --> 00:28:06.550
which means the FBI's newest anti-cartel task force

707
00:28:06.729 --> 00:28:08.630
is apparently being staffed by

708
00:28:08.930 --> 00:28:09.729
the cartel.

709
00:28:10.400 --> 00:28:10.849
In fact,

710
00:28:10.969 --> 00:28:16.089
the tips to US prosecutors that led to the arrest of these Mexican politicians

711
00:28:16.290 --> 00:28:18.689
came directly from El Chapo's sons

712
00:28:18.849 --> 00:28:20.989
who are currently sitting in US custody.

713
00:28:21.209 --> 00:28:22.290
And as you'll soon see,

714
00:28:22.369 --> 00:28:24.829
the FBI also found ways to incentivize

715
00:28:25.209 --> 00:28:26.949
other Mexican politicians

716
00:28:27.089 --> 00:28:28.750
to turn over their own,

717
00:28:28.819 --> 00:28:30.500
for better or for worse.

718
00:28:30.770 --> 00:28:33.170
But this new strategy has created major

719
00:28:33.170 --> 00:28:35.829
friction between the US and Mexican governments,

720
00:28:35.969 --> 00:28:38.449
who underneath all of these problems are typically.

721
00:28:38.572 --> 00:28:39.572
Very strong allies,

722
00:28:39.612 --> 00:28:40.761
all things considered,

723
00:28:41.001 --> 00:28:41.991
but recently,

724
00:28:42.291 --> 00:28:43.812
they have already perhaps,

725
00:28:43.852 --> 00:28:44.631
let's say,

726
00:28:44.932 --> 00:28:46.631
not been on the best of terms,

727
00:28:46.891 --> 00:28:49.852
and it's made the path ahead for both countries unclear.

728
00:28:50.171 --> 00:28:50.281
See,

729
00:28:50.291 --> 00:28:50.972
in Mexico,

730
00:28:51.131 --> 00:28:53.052
President Claudia Shinbaum's party,

731
00:28:53.171 --> 00:28:53.812
Marina,

732
00:28:54.171 --> 00:28:59.312
partly got into power on promises of pursuing anti-corruption policies,

733
00:28:59.572 --> 00:29:00.832
and to a large extent,

734
00:29:00.891 --> 00:29:03.932
her government has been cooperating with US intelligence,

735
00:29:04.251 --> 00:29:05.001
law enforcement,

736
00:29:05.082 --> 00:29:06.362
and military agencies to.

737
00:29:06.854 --> 00:29:08.083
Take down drug labs,

738
00:29:08.134 --> 00:29:09.563
seize drug exports,

739
00:29:09.774 --> 00:29:12.514
and capture or kill cartel kingpins

740
00:29:12.654 --> 00:29:15.323
at a level we haven't seen in recent history.

741
00:29:15.573 --> 00:29:16.274
They're really

742
00:29:16.374 --> 00:29:17.514
helping America

743
00:29:17.813 --> 00:29:19.274
coordinate with Mexico

744
00:29:19.404 --> 00:29:20.803
in taking out the cartel.

745
00:29:21.333 --> 00:29:22.114
This year alone,

746
00:29:22.213 --> 00:29:23.154
there have been more

747
00:29:23.374 --> 00:29:25.433
cartel captures of kingpins than

748
00:29:25.654 --> 00:29:27.323
I can remember in recent history.

749
00:29:27.534 --> 00:29:29.093
But according to ProPublica,

750
00:29:29.374 --> 00:29:33.854
Shinbaum also circumvented the two countries' extradition treaty

751
00:29:34.053 --> 00:29:34.933
to hand over 19.

752
00:29:35.105 --> 00:29:37.806
accused traffickers sought by the United States,

753
00:29:38.095 --> 00:29:40.875
voicing none of the concerns about US evidence

754
00:29:41.095 --> 00:29:44.906
that she has cited in refusing to arrest the Sinaloa officials,

755
00:29:45.015 --> 00:29:45.556
end quote.

756
00:29:45.816 --> 00:29:48.926
But when the US indicted 10 Mexican officials,

757
00:29:49.336 --> 00:29:51.475
Sheinbaum then drew a firm line.

758
00:29:51.696 --> 00:29:54.446
She refused to extradite the 10 charged officials,

759
00:29:54.696 --> 00:29:56.836
insisting that the US produce evidence

760
00:29:57.215 --> 00:29:58.615
to back up their charges,

761
00:29:58.776 --> 00:30:00.686
and stated that if it existed,

762
00:30:01.056 --> 00:30:03.176
they could be tried in Mexico.

763
00:30:03.530 --> 00:30:07.229
In her mind and the minds of some of her fellow party members,

764
00:30:07.609 --> 00:30:09.650
she views both the indictments

765
00:30:09.810 --> 00:30:10.959
and arrests

766
00:30:11.170 --> 00:30:13.810
as the US undermining Mexico's authority.

767
00:30:14.109 --> 00:30:16.589
And so from Washington DC's perspective,

768
00:30:16.989 --> 00:30:18.510
this is law enforcement.

769
00:30:19.180 --> 00:30:20.709
From Mexico City's perspective,

770
00:30:20.949 --> 00:30:24.109
it looks suspiciously like regime change with paperwork.

771
00:30:24.349 --> 00:30:24.939
In May,

772
00:30:25.109 --> 00:30:25.930
Shinbaum said,

773
00:30:26.109 --> 00:30:26.869
let's be clear,

774
00:30:27.030 --> 00:30:28.619
first they come for some,

775
00:30:28.869 --> 00:30:29.810
then for others,

776
00:30:30.150 --> 00:30:32.410
until the Office of the Department of Justice

777
00:30:32.790 --> 00:30:34.900
becomes the main electors in Mexico,

778
00:30:35.150 --> 00:30:36.579
we cannot allow this,

779
00:30:36.670 --> 00:30:37.310
end quote.

780
00:30:37.599 --> 00:30:37.989
See,

781
00:30:38.552 --> 00:30:40.871
Marina's party is very left-wing,

782
00:30:41.151 --> 00:30:44.972
one of the few left-wing governments left in power in Latin America,

783
00:30:45.151 --> 00:30:45.972
besides

784
00:30:46.151 --> 00:30:47.942
Lula's administration in Brazil.

785
00:30:48.192 --> 00:30:50.732
Given the US administration's recent attempts

786
00:30:50.871 --> 00:30:53.702
to support right-wing governments across the continent,

787
00:30:53.911 --> 00:30:56.011
either through vocal and strategic support,

788
00:30:56.421 --> 00:30:58.411
in the case of El Salvador and Ecuador,

789
00:30:58.631 --> 00:30:59.572
or by just

790
00:30:59.751 --> 00:31:01.991
handing over billions of dollars in the case of Argentina.

791
00:31:02.793 --> 00:31:05.953
This is something that has happened throughout recent history though,

792
00:31:06.073 --> 00:31:07.173
where Latin American

793
00:31:07.514 --> 00:31:10.933
countries sometimes appear to turn left-wing for a few years

794
00:31:11.144 --> 00:31:13.354
and then they turn back right-wing,

795
00:31:13.553 --> 00:31:17.713
kind of similar to how the United States swings back and forth between the two,

796
00:31:17.764 --> 00:31:19.864
almost every eight years predictably.

797
00:31:20.494 --> 00:31:22.693
Her repeated assertions by the United States

798
00:31:22.963 --> 00:31:25.813
include a statement by Trump in his 2025 national.

799
00:31:26.206 --> 00:31:27.166
Security strategy

800
00:31:27.395 --> 00:31:30.956
that Latin America is firmly within the US sphere of influence.

801
00:31:31.196 --> 00:31:33.336
That national security strategy is kind of like

802
00:31:33.515 --> 00:31:36.696
the US grand strategy that they put out publicly

803
00:31:36.916 --> 00:31:38.436
to let people know what to expect.

804
00:31:38.715 --> 00:31:43.296
But it's made left-wing Mexican politicians very wary of the motivations

805
00:31:43.595 --> 00:31:46.776
behind the recent indictments and arrests of Mexican officials.

806
00:31:46.995 --> 00:31:48.135
Almost all

807
00:31:48.316 --> 00:31:50.015
from the left-wing Marina Party.

808
00:31:50.410 --> 00:31:52.280
As Shinbaum said in one speech,

809
00:31:52.420 --> 00:31:52.660
quote,

810
00:31:52.780 --> 00:31:55.579
is this a legitimate interest to fight organized crime,

811
00:31:55.910 --> 00:31:59.380
or are we perhaps seeing how sectors of the US ultra-right

812
00:31:59.619 --> 00:32:01.979
are using our country to position themselves in

813
00:32:01.979 --> 00:32:04.880
the run-up to the November 2026 elections?

814
00:32:05.219 --> 00:32:08.050
That accusation raises a pretty obvious question,

815
00:32:08.339 --> 00:32:10.660
while Washington investigates Mexico's government,

816
00:32:10.910 --> 00:32:13.979
is it also investigating the Americans helping the cartel?

817
00:32:14.300 --> 00:32:17.020
Operate the corruption inside of America as well.

818
00:32:17.280 --> 00:32:17.670
At first,

819
00:32:17.750 --> 00:32:19.030
the answer appears to be yes.

820
00:32:19.310 --> 00:32:20.150
In 2025,

821
00:32:20.310 --> 00:32:23.510
2 Customs and Border Protection officers pleaded guilty to

822
00:32:23.510 --> 00:32:27.310
directing drug-filled vehicles through their own inspection lanes,

823
00:32:27.459 --> 00:32:29.380
using a secret emoji code.

824
00:32:29.750 --> 00:32:33.290
One admitted allowing at least 75 kg of fentanyl

825
00:32:33.510 --> 00:32:34.369
into the country.

826
00:32:34.579 --> 00:32:37.790
Apparently the weakest point in American border security was the group.

827
00:32:37.959 --> 00:32:38.319
Chat.

828
00:32:38.719 --> 00:32:41.319
Other officers were caught accepting bribes

829
00:32:41.319 --> 00:32:43.550
to waive designated vehicles through checkpoints.

830
00:32:43.839 --> 00:32:45.780
One former CBP officer

831
00:32:46.079 --> 00:32:47.859
received more than 9 years in prison.

832
00:32:48.109 --> 00:32:49.959
Then the cases moved beyond the border.

833
00:32:50.040 --> 00:32:53.640
A former Texas mayor was sentenced for joining a cocaine trafficking

834
00:32:53.640 --> 00:32:58.109
conspiracy that used a school building to store and repackaged drugs,

835
00:32:58.199 --> 00:33:01.540
an unusual literal investment in public education.

836
00:33:01.890 --> 00:33:03.489
And in December 2025,

837
00:33:03.650 --> 00:33:05.390
prosecutors indicted Paul Campo,

838
00:33:05.489 --> 00:33:07.469
a former senior DEA official,

839
00:33:07.810 --> 00:33:10.469
alleging that he agreed to help people he believed

840
00:33:10.849 --> 00:33:14.670
represented the Jalisco cartel launder about $12 million

841
00:33:15.089 --> 00:33:16.050
traffic cocaine,

842
00:33:16.130 --> 00:33:17.739
and obtain weapons.

843
00:33:17.969 --> 00:33:20.520
He has pleaded not guilty and is presumed innocent,

844
00:33:20.530 --> 00:33:20.969
of course,

845
00:33:21.209 --> 00:33:22.079
but the United States.

846
00:33:22.140 --> 00:33:24.609
is prosecuting corruption on its own side,

847
00:33:24.859 --> 00:33:26.959
but there is a major difference.

848
00:33:27.020 --> 00:33:27.540
In America,

849
00:33:27.619 --> 00:33:30.410
the cases mostly involve individual officers,

850
00:33:30.699 --> 00:33:31.569
former officials,

851
00:33:31.619 --> 00:33:34.040
and local lower-level politicians.

852
00:33:34.260 --> 00:33:34.819
In Mexico,

853
00:33:34.939 --> 00:33:35.489
however,

854
00:33:35.969 --> 00:33:38.439
Washington DC has indicted a sitting governor,

855
00:33:38.739 --> 00:33:42.390
alongside 9 other officials in one single operation.

856
00:33:42.699 --> 00:33:45.630
The United States is removing corrupt pieces from its own system,

857
00:33:45.739 --> 00:33:46.160
yes,

858
00:33:46.459 --> 00:33:47.339
in Mexico,

859
00:33:47.619 --> 00:33:51.719
it might be pulling on a thread that could unravel the entire political party.

860
00:33:51.989 --> 00:33:56.849
And not all politicians in Mexico or even members of Shinbaum's own party

861
00:33:57.030 --> 00:34:00.069
have the same problems with the FBI's new strategy.

862
00:34:00.349 --> 00:34:05.890
Senator Lily Teez of Mexico's conservative National Action Party tweeted or,

863
00:34:05.900 --> 00:34:07.260
or tweeted or axed,

864
00:34:07.469 --> 00:34:09.530
Shinbaum decided to cover it up

865
00:34:09.708 --> 00:34:11.550
so as not to sink Marina,

866
00:34:11.668 --> 00:34:12.330
end quote,

867
00:34:12.469 --> 00:34:13.580
which is one way of saying.

868
00:34:13.739 --> 00:34:16.559
The anti-corruption debate has now reached the stage

869
00:34:16.559 --> 00:34:19.118
where everyone accuses the other side of corruption.

870
00:34:19.478 --> 00:34:23.898
Even Shinbaum's own cabinet is divided between more practical members

871
00:34:24.039 --> 00:34:27.039
who support further cooperation with the United States

872
00:34:27.279 --> 00:34:29.099
and more leftist colleagues

873
00:34:29.239 --> 00:34:32.418
who say that the United States authorities' actions in Mexico

874
00:34:32.638 --> 00:34:34.498
are setting a dangerous precedent

875
00:34:34.638 --> 00:34:35.228
for further.

876
00:34:35.290 --> 00:34:37.929
And perhaps even military intervention in the country,

877
00:34:38.129 --> 00:34:41.879
a theory that may not sound as crazy as it initially sounds,

878
00:34:42.168 --> 00:34:43.449
as I'll explain later.

879
00:34:43.810 --> 00:34:45.850
Thanks to these divisions and using

880
00:34:45.850 --> 00:34:48.840
arrested cartel kingpins and confidential informants,

881
00:34:49.168 --> 00:34:53.708
the FBI has found decent footing to start flipping members of the Mexican

882
00:34:53.840 --> 00:34:54.080
administration,

883
00:34:54.489 --> 00:34:56.830
including some from Shinbaum's own party.

884
00:34:57.189 --> 00:35:00.459
The first steps toward getting politicians on their side,

885
00:35:00.919 --> 00:35:02.639
revoking their US visas.

886
00:35:02.959 --> 00:35:03.280
So far,

887
00:35:03.320 --> 00:35:08.959
the US has revoked over 50 visas for multiple Mexican mayors and at least 1 governor.

888
00:35:09.350 --> 00:35:13.149
Marina del Pilar Avila Olomida of Baja California,

889
00:35:13.229 --> 00:35:15.830
I'm sorry if I pronounced some of those names wrong,

890
00:35:15.909 --> 00:35:16.229
I'm,

891
00:35:16.469 --> 00:35:17.540
I'm very gringo,

892
00:35:17.550 --> 00:35:18.330
as they say,

893
00:35:18.459 --> 00:35:20.340
and her now ex-husband,

894
00:35:20.350 --> 00:35:22.149
Carlos Alberto Torres,

895
00:35:22.510 --> 00:35:23.050
Torres,

896
00:35:23.229 --> 00:35:25.469
another politician in 2025,

897
00:35:25.949 --> 00:35:26.030
no,

898
00:35:26.110 --> 00:35:26.750
I didn't stutter,

899
00:35:26.830 --> 00:35:26.989
yes,

900
00:35:27.070 --> 00:35:27.310
that's,

901
00:35:27.389 --> 00:35:28.310
that's his actual name,

902
00:35:28.389 --> 00:35:29.179
Torres Torres.

903
00:35:29.419 --> 00:35:31.350
The Federal Attorney General's office then

904
00:35:31.350 --> 00:35:33.850
launched an investigation into Torres Torres

905
00:35:34.070 --> 00:35:37.010
for arms and drug trafficking as well as money laundering.

906
00:35:37.189 --> 00:35:37.719
Allegedly,

907
00:35:37.750 --> 00:35:40.820
Avilia herself was under investigation as well.

908
00:35:41.070 --> 00:35:42.570
Avilia responded by,

909
00:35:43.110 --> 00:35:43.510
well,

910
00:35:43.699 --> 00:35:44.709
divorcing him,

911
00:35:44.790 --> 00:35:46.139
divorcing Torres Torres,

912
00:35:46.429 --> 00:35:48.070
though that might have been unrelated,

913
00:35:48.189 --> 00:35:51.330
but narco-trafficking charges do tend to present issues in a

914
00:35:51.459 --> 00:35:51.889
marriage

915
00:35:52.149 --> 00:35:52.489
that

916
00:35:52.620 --> 00:35:54.550
couples therapy probably can't solve,

917
00:35:54.620 --> 00:35:58.229
and also by allegedly offering information to US authorities.

918
00:35:58.469 --> 00:35:59.750
In July 2026,

919
00:35:59.909 --> 00:35:59.979
a,

920
00:36:00.060 --> 00:36:02.330
a kind of famous audio recording came out

921
00:36:02.830 --> 00:36:03.860
between Avilla

922
00:36:04.110 --> 00:36:05.030
and men who represent.

923
00:36:05.510 --> 00:36:08.979
themselves as FBI special agents and FBI advisors,

924
00:36:09.229 --> 00:36:11.310
and that discussion was leaked to the public.

925
00:36:11.429 --> 00:36:13.290
According to Mexico News Daily,

926
00:36:13.510 --> 00:36:14.830
in one section of the recording,

927
00:36:14.949 --> 00:36:15.739
Avilia says,

928
00:36:15.830 --> 00:36:16.189
quote,

929
00:36:16.469 --> 00:36:20.689
they're saying they're going to charge me and file an extradition order.

930
00:36:20.870 --> 00:36:23.389
I'm willing to speak about everything I know,

931
00:36:23.669 --> 00:36:24.350
how to help,

932
00:36:24.580 --> 00:36:25.550
how to cooperate.

933
00:36:25.790 --> 00:36:26.610
I can say

934
00:36:26.750 --> 00:36:28.659
what I've heard in security meetings,

935
00:36:28.750 --> 00:36:29.429
end quote.

936
00:36:29.590 --> 00:36:29.739
I mean,

937
00:36:29.750 --> 00:36:30.570
that's huge.

938
00:36:30.669 --> 00:36:33.030
We're talking about a Mexican politician.

939
00:36:33.459 --> 00:36:36.320
Saying that they're gonna basically become an informant for the FBI.

940
00:36:36.699 --> 00:36:38.500
Though Avilia confirmed the recording,

941
00:36:38.620 --> 00:36:40.540
she insisted that it was just related

942
00:36:40.540 --> 00:36:43.780
to normal cross-border security coordination and cooperation.

943
00:36:44.050 --> 00:36:44.550
And again,

944
00:36:44.719 --> 00:36:46.719
a lot of Mexican politicians

945
00:36:46.889 --> 00:36:49.929
have declined to confirm cooperation with the FBI

946
00:36:50.330 --> 00:36:53.120
or possible charges by the FBI

947
00:36:53.340 --> 00:36:56.129
as they don't want to seem guilty by association,

948
00:36:56.409 --> 00:36:57.719
or if they are guilty,

949
00:36:58.010 --> 00:37:00.449
have the cartel's anger turned against them.

950
00:37:00.729 --> 00:37:03.889
The FBI has also used the indictments themselves

951
00:37:03.889 --> 00:37:06.959
to force Mexican politicians to cooperate with them.

952
00:37:07.129 --> 00:37:08.469
According to The Atlantic,

953
00:37:09.159 --> 00:37:10.889
several former Mexican officials facing.

954
00:37:11.065 --> 00:37:12.016
US charges

955
00:37:12.135 --> 00:37:13.476
have turned themselves in,

956
00:37:13.615 --> 00:37:16.355
apparently agreeing to cooperate with authorities

957
00:37:16.766 --> 00:37:18.226
to reduce their sentences.

958
00:37:18.476 --> 00:37:21.916
Though Claudia Shinbaum is calling for her party's unity

959
00:37:22.095 --> 00:37:24.996
and that of Mexican politicians in general,

960
00:37:25.256 --> 00:37:28.936
to stand up to what she sees as interference to the North.

961
00:37:29.216 --> 00:37:32.525
Many politicians have made the executive decision that

962
00:37:32.696 --> 00:37:34.885
they'd rather avoid possible jail time,

963
00:37:35.095 --> 00:37:37.595
as the political analyst Carlos Regidor says.

964
00:37:37.902 --> 00:37:40.261
The closing of ranks that the president is calling

965
00:37:40.261 --> 00:37:43.231
for from above is not being matched from below,

966
00:37:43.461 --> 00:37:46.981
because some people within the system instead of standing with the president,

967
00:37:47.221 --> 00:37:50.062
are rushing to the United States to save their own skin,

968
00:37:50.142 --> 00:37:50.731
end quote.

969
00:37:50.941 --> 00:37:53.622
But that doesn't mean there's cooperation across the board,

970
00:37:53.902 --> 00:37:55.582
because Mexican politicians

971
00:37:55.781 --> 00:37:57.162
also have a lot to lose

972
00:37:57.342 --> 00:37:59.241
if they stand up against the cartel

973
00:37:59.382 --> 00:38:01.112
and other corrupt politicians,

974
00:38:01.221 --> 00:38:02.842
in terms of both campaign money

975
00:38:02.981 --> 00:38:04.701
and remaining hours on this planet.

976
00:38:05.387 --> 00:38:07.468
Making the FBI's objective of flipping

977
00:38:07.468 --> 00:38:10.377
Mexico's top officials much more difficult,

978
00:38:10.788 --> 00:38:12.748
because being a politician in Mexico can have

979
00:38:12.748 --> 00:38:16.058
a higher fatality rate than freaking base jumping.

980
00:38:16.347 --> 00:38:18.528
Before the 2024 national election,

981
00:38:18.788 --> 00:38:22.127
more than 36 political candidates across Mexico

982
00:38:22.498 --> 00:38:23.607
were freaking killed.

983
00:38:23.788 --> 00:38:26.008
Another few 100 dropped out of their race

984
00:38:26.268 --> 00:38:28.587
because they were under pressure from the cartel,

985
00:38:28.788 --> 00:38:31.627
who wanted to install allied politicians.

986
00:38:31.753 --> 00:38:32.313
Instead.

987
00:38:32.394 --> 00:38:36.414
The cartel have also found a new way of funding friendly politicians

988
00:38:36.553 --> 00:38:38.503
with so-called dark campaign money.

989
00:38:38.724 --> 00:38:40.954
So they steal oil and gas revenue,

990
00:38:41.154 --> 00:38:44.854
and then they resell it in Mexico or they smuggle it to the United States

991
00:38:45.093 --> 00:38:46.394
for major profits.

992
00:38:46.553 --> 00:38:49.914
And that's another point where we see corruption in the United States

993
00:38:50.073 --> 00:38:52.813
is helping also to fuel corruption in Mexico.

994
00:38:53.073 --> 00:38:56.063
We're not talking about a few barrels here and there.

995
00:38:56.233 --> 00:38:57.374
Experts estimate

996
00:38:57.553 --> 00:38:58.553
that this illicit gas.

997
00:38:58.810 --> 00:39:02.219
Lean business has become a multi-billion-dollar business in Mexico,

998
00:39:02.479 --> 00:39:06.500
and alleged collaboration between cartels and corrupt businesses

999
00:39:07.080 --> 00:39:08.389
and government officials.

1000
00:39:08.639 --> 00:39:11.020
The US Treasury recently put out a statement

1001
00:39:11.560 --> 00:39:13.040
calling this practice out,

1002
00:39:13.260 --> 00:39:16.659
stating that the cartels are increasingly using their illicit profits

1003
00:39:16.830 --> 00:39:18.340
to make cash payments

1004
00:39:18.639 --> 00:39:20.550
to Mexican politicians' campaigns.

1005
00:39:20.879 --> 00:39:23.000
This also muddies the water when it comes to

1006
00:39:23.000 --> 00:39:25.479
who is corrupt in Mexican politics or not.

1007
00:39:25.919 --> 00:39:28.679
Because as indicted Governor Rocha said,

1008
00:39:28.879 --> 00:39:32.060
when asked if coordinating with cartels was necessary

1009
00:39:32.479 --> 00:39:33.830
to run a Mexican state,

1010
00:39:34.120 --> 00:39:34.320
he said,

1011
00:39:34.399 --> 00:39:34.600
quote,

1012
00:39:34.669 --> 00:39:36.669
you have to find a way to do it.

1013
00:39:36.959 --> 00:39:40.659
The Sinaloa cartel is so deeply embedded in Rocha state

1014
00:39:41.000 --> 00:39:43.919
that it is one of the top local employers there.

1015
00:39:44.280 --> 00:39:46.679
Not getting on the cartel's bad side seemed

1016
00:39:46.679 --> 00:39:49.659
almost necessary for running certain Mexican states.

1017
00:39:50.100 --> 00:39:52.919
So who is actively chasing the cartel money

1018
00:39:53.060 --> 00:39:55.479
and who is just playing nice with them to stay

1019
00:39:55.580 --> 00:39:57.060
in power and alive?

1020
00:39:57.340 --> 00:39:58.060
In the meantime,

1021
00:39:58.179 --> 00:40:00.719
Shinbaum and fellow members of her party

1022
00:40:00.899 --> 00:40:01.790
face a tough decision.

1023
00:40:02.340 --> 00:40:06.260
She has made standing up to US retaining Mexico's sovereignty,

1024
00:40:06.540 --> 00:40:10.000
and anti-corruption a central bet of her presidency,

1025
00:40:10.020 --> 00:40:14.459
and her party's general stance before upcoming midterm elections in 2027.

1026
00:40:14.840 --> 00:40:17.709
She's also incredibly popular among Mexican citizens,

1027
00:40:17.959 --> 00:40:20.840
with a pretty consistent 70% approval rating,

1028
00:40:21.080 --> 00:40:24.580
something that US presidents usually only get when they're declaring war,

1029
00:40:24.719 --> 00:40:26.439
and no personal links to corruption.

1030
00:40:26.669 --> 00:40:29.389
In just January to May of this year,

1031
00:40:29.629 --> 00:40:34.419
homicide rates in Mexico have gone down 63% compared to two years ago,

1032
00:40:34.639 --> 00:40:35.090
although

1033
00:40:35.510 --> 00:40:37.570
some of that might be explained by

1034
00:40:37.709 --> 00:40:40.429
reclassifying people as missing people instead of murdered,

1035
00:40:40.550 --> 00:40:43.610
but managing both goals of anti-corruption and sovereignty

1036
00:40:43.870 --> 00:40:45.260
might prove difficult.

1037
00:40:45.590 --> 00:40:47.830
Will the US administration target corruption?

1038
00:40:47.916 --> 00:40:49.365
Officials across the board,

1039
00:40:49.595 --> 00:40:54.216
or only pursue those aligned with left-wing marina party politics in Mexico.

1040
00:40:54.355 --> 00:40:55.976
Handing over corrupt officials

1041
00:40:56.156 --> 00:40:57.696
may weaken the cartels,

1042
00:40:57.956 --> 00:41:00.555
but will it also weaken Mexico's autonomy,

1043
00:41:00.916 --> 00:41:03.216
setting bigger and more serious precedents

1044
00:41:03.395 --> 00:41:06.615
for future interference from a powerful northern neighbor

1045
00:41:06.615 --> 00:41:09.075
that has seemed very keen on disrupting.

1046
00:41:09.441 --> 00:41:10.802
Politics across the continent,

1047
00:41:11.001 --> 00:41:14.112
as former Mexican minister Jorge Castana said,

1048
00:41:14.402 --> 00:41:17.691
the president faces a terrifying Hamlet-like dilemma,

1049
00:41:17.842 --> 00:41:18.832
to yield or not,

1050
00:41:19.041 --> 00:41:21.741
with disastrous consequences in either case.

1051
00:41:22.322 --> 00:41:22.642
For now,

1052
00:41:22.761 --> 00:41:24.541
Shinbaum has asked the US

1053
00:41:24.721 --> 00:41:27.461
to give its evidence against Mexican politicians

1054
00:41:27.642 --> 00:41:28.771
to Mexican authorities,

1055
00:41:29.041 --> 00:41:30.322
so they can review it.

1056
00:41:30.689 --> 00:41:34.110
She has also privately urged members of her Marina Party

1057
00:41:34.250 --> 00:41:36.530
to resign if they're involved in corruption.

1058
00:41:36.850 --> 00:41:37.510
Considering

1059
00:41:37.810 --> 00:41:40.090
that the Mexican political system grants a

1060
00:41:40.090 --> 00:41:43.360
level of constitutional immunity to various politicians,

1061
00:41:43.689 --> 00:41:45.389
this could be a first step

1062
00:41:45.610 --> 00:41:48.290
toward eventually having cases against them.

1063
00:41:48.449 --> 00:41:51.149
But the public message from her is clear,

1064
00:41:51.330 --> 00:41:54.000
Mexico's affairs belong to Mexicans.

1065
00:41:54.330 --> 00:41:55.090
Unfortunately,

1066
00:41:55.169 --> 00:41:58.429
this is putting the US and Mexican governments on a metaphorical,

1067
00:41:59.340 --> 00:42:01.018
but Hopefully not literal warpath,

1068
00:42:01.117 --> 00:42:04.498
as more indictments and arrests of politicians are threatened.

1069
00:42:04.718 --> 00:42:05.298
In May,

1070
00:42:05.397 --> 00:42:08.988
the Department of Homeland Security Secretary Mullen had a meeting with Shinbaum,

1071
00:42:08.998 --> 00:42:11.798
in which he told her to hand over Rocha Moya,

1072
00:42:11.998 --> 00:42:13.978
the indicted governor of Sinaloa.

1073
00:42:14.278 --> 00:42:17.718
Moya is a staunch ally of Shinbaum's and of her mentor,

1074
00:42:17.877 --> 00:42:19.377
former President Obrador.

1075
00:42:19.637 --> 00:42:21.377
Sheinbaum once again refused.

1076
00:42:21.558 --> 00:42:24.298
She said her own administration will decide

1077
00:42:24.597 --> 00:42:26.978
his fate based on its own investigation,

1078
00:42:27.238 --> 00:42:28.117
but this time she went.

1079
00:42:28.305 --> 00:42:28.585
Further,

1080
00:42:28.666 --> 00:42:29.506
she told Mullen,

1081
00:42:29.746 --> 00:42:30.666
the United States,

1082
00:42:30.875 --> 00:42:33.385
that she would view any more US indictments

1083
00:42:33.385 --> 00:42:37.125
against elected Mexican politicians as political interference.

1084
00:42:37.345 --> 00:42:37.625
However,

1085
00:42:37.706 --> 00:42:39.605
the US administration and honestly,

1086
00:42:39.785 --> 00:42:41.166
most Mexican citizens

1087
00:42:41.325 --> 00:42:44.226
have little faith that the justice system in Mexico

1088
00:42:44.226 --> 00:42:46.865
will convict any official of collusion with the cartels.

1089
00:42:47.025 --> 00:42:48.545
As one Mexican citizen,

1090
00:42:48.736 --> 00:42:49.785
Roberto Santilla,

1091
00:42:49.865 --> 00:42:51.256
told the LA Times,

1092
00:42:51.506 --> 00:42:52.105
on the one hand,

1093
00:42:52.226 --> 00:42:54.795
I don't think that the United States interferes in Mexico.

1094
00:42:54.986 --> 00:42:55.585
On the other hand,

1095
00:42:55.706 --> 00:42:56.946
we know that Mexico is never.

1096
00:42:57.194 --> 00:42:59.233
going to punish these corrupt politicians

1097
00:42:59.654 --> 00:43:02.273
because they are from the same party as the president.

1098
00:43:02.493 --> 00:43:04.803
But there's a bigger risk looming on the horizon,

1099
00:43:05.013 --> 00:43:09.013
the risk of an outright armed invasion by Mexico's northern neighbor.

1100
00:43:09.174 --> 00:43:12.124
The US had almost always observed a sort of

1101
00:43:12.124 --> 00:43:14.604
red line when it came to fighting the cartels.

1102
00:43:14.894 --> 00:43:18.093
Though they often complained about corruption in the Mexican government,

1103
00:43:18.374 --> 00:43:20.483
they would not go after sitting officials.

1104
00:43:20.803 --> 00:43:22.154
One rare time that they did,

1105
00:43:22.214 --> 00:43:24.843
indicting former defense minister in 2020,

1106
00:43:24.894 --> 00:43:25.773
it ended up with them.

1107
00:43:26.001 --> 00:43:28.802
Returning him back to Mexico due to political pressure.

1108
00:43:28.961 --> 00:43:30.241
But now the head of the DEA,

1109
00:43:30.362 --> 00:43:30.981
Terry Cole,

1110
00:43:31.082 --> 00:43:33.761
called the Mexican government and the cartel network

1111
00:43:33.761 --> 00:43:35.822
one and the same in a recent speech.

1112
00:43:35.922 --> 00:43:39.721
And though it's becoming clear that the Mexican officials will not be extradited,

1113
00:43:39.802 --> 00:43:42.112
the US isn't backing down from their demands,

1114
00:43:42.362 --> 00:43:45.181
leading many former and current US government officials

1115
00:43:45.521 --> 00:43:48.142
wondering what the end goal of the strategy is,

1116
00:43:48.402 --> 00:43:48.781
and

1117
00:43:48.902 --> 00:43:53.102
if it's indeed finding a pretext for military interference in Mexico,

1118
00:43:53.521 --> 00:43:54.602
or getting a party in Mexico.

1119
00:43:54.709 --> 00:43:59.580
Mexico that's more willing to allow US intervention inside of Mexico.

1120
00:43:59.760 --> 00:44:03.219
Further leading credence to this theory is in July 2026,

1121
00:44:03.469 --> 00:44:06.350
the State Department designated the Juarez cartel and

1122
00:44:06.350 --> 00:44:09.510
the Los Viagras cartel as foreign terrorist organizations

1123
00:44:09.669 --> 00:44:12.860
and specifically designated them as global terrorists.

1124
00:44:13.229 --> 00:44:16.110
Some within the current US administration believe that this

1125
00:44:16.110 --> 00:44:18.409
could lay the legal groundwork for an attack.

1126
00:44:18.629 --> 00:44:21.110
Some international law experts disagree though.

1127
00:44:21.429 --> 00:44:23.360
To make matters even more complicated.

1128
00:44:23.538 --> 00:44:26.137
It's a little unclear why this giant crackdown by

1129
00:44:26.137 --> 00:44:28.607
the FBI is happening now of all times,

1130
00:44:28.937 --> 00:44:31.208
because unlike most current global conflicts,

1131
00:44:31.458 --> 00:44:34.238
the war against the cartels has actually been going

1132
00:44:34.667 --> 00:44:35.837
surprisingly well.

1133
00:44:36.137 --> 00:44:39.318
Some of the biggest cartel leaders are now dead or in prison.

1134
00:44:39.607 --> 00:44:41.738
El Chapo and his sons are in US custody.

1135
00:44:41.808 --> 00:44:44.327
El Mecho was killed by Mexican security forces,

1136
00:44:44.498 --> 00:44:45.607
and LR1,

1137
00:44:45.778 --> 00:44:46.937
linked to killing of a mayor,

1138
00:44:46.978 --> 00:44:48.568
was arrested just a few days ago.

1139
00:44:48.728 --> 00:44:52.258
Another leader going by El Mayo was actually handed to.

1140
00:44:52.365 --> 00:44:54.585
The US authorities by El Chapo's own son,

1141
00:44:55.045 --> 00:44:56.785
Joaquin Guzman Lopez,

1142
00:44:57.246 --> 00:44:59.706
who hoped delivering another kingpin

1143
00:44:59.845 --> 00:45:01.775
would get him better treatment in prison.

1144
00:45:02.035 --> 00:45:03.845
Two cartel leaders for the price of one,

1145
00:45:03.885 --> 00:45:04.186
basically.

1146
00:45:04.605 --> 00:45:07.545
There doesn't seem to be enough serious cartel leaders in Mexico

1147
00:45:07.726 --> 00:45:09.446
to base a Netflix series on anymore,

1148
00:45:09.565 --> 00:45:10.065
never mind

1149
00:45:10.325 --> 00:45:12.545
to use as a pretext to invade the country.

1150
00:45:12.795 --> 00:45:14.156
As Adam Isaacson,

1151
00:45:14.206 --> 00:45:17.045
a director at the Washington Office of Latin America,

1152
00:45:17.145 --> 00:45:17.345
said,

1153
00:45:17.645 --> 00:45:21.125
if the goal is to make a big splash by taking out someone who is a big house.

1154
00:45:21.474 --> 00:45:21.813
Name,

1155
00:45:22.033 --> 00:45:24.214
that well is running very dry.

1156
00:45:24.434 --> 00:45:25.083
On her part,

1157
00:45:25.214 --> 00:45:28.174
Shinbaum has responded with increased US pressure

1158
00:45:28.553 --> 00:45:29.624
by bringing her own.

1159
00:45:29.833 --> 00:45:32.434
She announced she would be pursuing criminal charges

1160
00:45:32.434 --> 00:45:35.053
related to Mexican citizens killed by ICE,

1161
00:45:35.233 --> 00:45:36.813
and reminded the US that

1162
00:45:36.914 --> 00:45:41.503
it's failed to follow through on Mexico's extradition requests since 2018,

1163
00:45:41.604 --> 00:45:46.374
269 potential criminals that the Mexican government has asked to be returned

1164
00:45:46.553 --> 00:45:47.664
to face charges.

1165
00:45:47.914 --> 00:45:49.874
But there's yet another factor Shinbaum.

1166
00:45:50.181 --> 00:45:51.082
want to consider,

1167
00:45:51.142 --> 00:45:53.741
even though she's very popular among Mexican people,

1168
00:45:53.852 --> 00:45:56.701
polls in Mexico show that her citizens may not

1169
00:45:56.701 --> 00:45:59.451
be as opposed to US interference as she is.

1170
00:45:59.582 --> 00:46:02.142
A polling firm found that just over half of

1171
00:46:02.142 --> 00:46:06.562
Mexicans agreed that US authorities should enter Mexican territory

1172
00:46:06.741 --> 00:46:10.011
to fight against organized crime and arrest its leaders.

1173
00:46:10.142 --> 00:46:12.342
A third even said that they would support US

1174
00:46:12.342 --> 00:46:15.382
military deployments to fight cartels in the country,

1175
00:46:15.602 --> 00:46:18.701
a reflection of how much the Mexican people have suffered under.

1176
00:46:18.860 --> 00:46:20.350
Cartel violence in the country.

1177
00:46:20.649 --> 00:46:21.679
In the big picture,

1178
00:46:21.969 --> 00:46:26.330
no short-term solution or compromise between the United States and Mexico

1179
00:46:26.610 --> 00:46:27.560
seems to be in sight.

1180
00:46:27.729 --> 00:46:29.389
The tensions between the two countries

1181
00:46:29.729 --> 00:46:30.510
continue to rise,

1182
00:46:30.889 --> 00:46:33.110
with neither leader appearing to back down.

1183
00:46:33.280 --> 00:46:36.949
What does this mean for the future of the two neighbors and their relationship?

1184
00:46:37.090 --> 00:46:37.729
As of now,

1185
00:46:37.889 --> 00:46:39.000
no one seems to know,

1186
00:46:39.290 --> 00:46:39.629
but

1187
00:46:39.770 --> 00:46:42.149
it's a major shift that we're seeing here

1188
00:46:42.250 --> 00:46:45.030
in how the war against the cartels is being waged,

1189
00:46:45.250 --> 00:46:46.189
to now include

1190
00:46:46.639 --> 00:46:47.590
politicians.

1191
00:46:48.129 --> 00:46:49.379
For the first time in decades,

1192
00:46:49.459 --> 00:46:53.300
the pressure on the cartels is no longer coming from just one direction,

1193
00:46:53.500 --> 00:46:55.070
but history gives us a warning.

1194
00:46:55.340 --> 00:46:58.850
Destroying a cartel does not destroy the market that created it.

1195
00:46:59.179 --> 00:47:00.449
So the real question is,

1196
00:47:00.820 --> 00:47:03.419
what grows in the space that they leave behind.

1197
00:47:03.620 --> 00:47:05.020
If you like this video and you want to learn.

1198
00:47:05.165 --> 00:47:06.125
More about this topic.

1199
00:47:06.205 --> 00:47:07.824
There's another video we have about

1200
00:47:08.004 --> 00:47:10.905
how the US is fighting the cartel across Latin America

1201
00:47:11.064 --> 00:47:13.625
for $200 billion in mineral contracts,

1202
00:47:13.814 --> 00:47:15.885
or you got this playlist here on

1203
00:47:16.155 --> 00:47:18.155
just different cartel video analysis.

1204
00:47:18.445 --> 00:47:18.854
So,

1205
00:47:19.165 --> 00:47:22.064
thank you very much for watching and I'll see you in the next transmission.