WEBVTT

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A day like today only comes along once in a lifetime.

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Yes,

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we've made it through multiple dozens of episodes on this show.

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Episode 50,

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it's a round number.

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We should celebrate and we will celebrate today,

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our 50th episode of Predictable.

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Thanks so much for joining us.

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Uh,

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we have a lot to go through.

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The Florida primaries are tomorrow.

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Some interesting opportunities there.

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We have Alaska and Wyoming coming up tomorrow as well.

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We'll preview that for you.

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We have some information about what

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At least how experts are saying the polls were such a disaster in Wisconsin,

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which cost me money,

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by the way,

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I'm not happy about it.

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And,

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uh,

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here's one I kind of like.

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We have that segment we'd like to do for you,

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where we can find these kind of random markets and say,

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there might be an opportunity here.

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We'll get to a couple of those today

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as well.

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As always,

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join us on Predictable.

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Show.com.

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Great articles,

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great

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uh conversation going on there every single day.

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We find so many different things that we're able to kind

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of talk bat around with uh everybody who's a subscriber.

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If you'd like to be a premium subscriber,

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we'd love to have you there as well.

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It's predictableshow.com.

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Let's get today's show,

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episode 50,

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started right now.

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I looked up at my screen

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this weekend,

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and what did I see on it?

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NFL football.

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Yes,

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NFL football

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on my screen.

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It makes me feel warm inside every single year when this happens.

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And it's just,

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you know,

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crappy preseason football.

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I can say that because the Eagles lost,

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so I have to justify it in some way.

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Uh,

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but like,

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you know,

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it's preseason football,

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it's a bunch of third stringers,

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it's still football,

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and I love watching it.

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And,

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you know,

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you think about it,

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you're in the preseason.

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You only got a few more weeks

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until you're actually watching regular season football.

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In fact,

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today,

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24 days away

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from the NFL season,

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you might say,

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OK,

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well,

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what does that have to do with the elections or prediction markets?

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What are you getting to here?

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Well,

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think about this for a second.

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That first game,

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24 days away,

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you watch that first game,

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you go into the weekend,

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you get that first slate of games,

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NFL Sunday Ticket kind of kicks off.

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You're watching football all day long.

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And then,

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Before you can get to that following weekend.

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Before that happens,

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Early voting will begin.

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We're only 32 days away from early voting

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beginning

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in the first states.

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That's how close we are

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to this election.

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Seems insane.

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32 days

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until the first round of early voting begins.

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78 days

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until the midterm election

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is here.

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And we're getting results,

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and we're up all night

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with you at predictableShow.com,

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ranting and raving.

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My voice will be shot.

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I probably will have lots of alcohol by the end of the night because I,

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it's the only way I'm gonna get through it,

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frankly.

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Uh,

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hopefully,

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things go well.

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Not always optimistic about such things,

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but we're gonna hope that they go well.

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I will say we're gonna get lots of opportunities,

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and I think

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have a very profitable evening.

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That's an important thing,

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and there's a reason why

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it's important to know how far this is out and

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how we should be thinking about the November elections.

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We'll get into that here

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in just a second.

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Tomorrow,

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however,

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is one of our last like really big deal primaries.

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Uh,

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we,

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we don't have that schedule around,

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do we,

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by any chance,

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Adam?

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I don't remember which,

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uh,

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which ones are coming up in the next few weeks,

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but it's like,

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we're,

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we're,

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we've gone away from the 5 and 6 primaries

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per night type of thing on a Tuesday.

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We are now looking at more like 1.

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This,

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uh,

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tomorrow there'll be 3.

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You have,

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uh,

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uh,

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Alaska and Wyoming,

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which there's only,

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I think 5 races total

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between the two,

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and you have that really crazy system in,

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in Alaska where.

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The first round of voting,

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which is the primary,

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is a top 4.

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So the top 4 from any party,

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uh,

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no matter what,

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where the what party they're in,

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they'll get into the final round,

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which will be in November,

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and then that will be ranked choice voting,

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which will then mean like,

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you know,

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you're eliminating voters until someone gets to 50%.

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It's a very confusing system.

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Bottom line is.

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You know,

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there's some interesting stuff there.

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Maybe we'll do a little bit on that on tomorrow's election in Wyoming and,

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uh,

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in,

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in Alaska.

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The big one is kind of Florida.

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We've been on the Florida one for a while.

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If you've been watching the show for a while,

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you know they've,

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I've had several positions.

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Some of my biggest positions

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are in the Florida elections.

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4 things to watch during Tuesday's Florida primary comes from the Tampa Bay Times.

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And,

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you know,

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they're talking a lot.

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There's some interesting stuff on the,

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uh,

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Democratic side as well.

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I want to focus on the Republican side though.

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At least for today.

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We'll get into more of this stuff

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uh at predictableShow.com.

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By the way,

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uh,

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if you are a premium member of PredictableShow.com,

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you get all of my picks early.

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Uh,

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so you will get them.

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I'm gonna start putting them on there this afternoon for tomorrow's elections.

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Some of them you already know.

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If you have,

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if you're on PredictableShow.com as a premium member,

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you have access to all my picks in advance.

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So,

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there's a database of over 200 of them,

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positions that I currently hold in prediction markets that you

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can kind of just go see whenever you want.

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Um,

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and then

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as I grow,

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as we get closer and closer to a primary election,

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I'll

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start adding a bunch of stuff,

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and from there,

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we will update that in our,

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uh,

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premium chat.

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So,

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you'll get a lot of the stuff here in the live streams and on the show,

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but we'll also,

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if you really want that detail,

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if you're someone who's a traitor,

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I do think it is well worth your money.

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Uh,

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if you want to be a premium subscriber,

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especially if you're trading these things with any regularity,

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there's a great community there.

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There's lots of great features,

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predictableShow.com.

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OK,

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let me show you,

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uh,

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first of all,

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let me give you a story about this one.

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And you may have heard me tell,

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tell bits and pieces of the story,

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but this is one,

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this is a multi-year story,

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frankly.

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Uh,

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Florida Republican Senate nominee,

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this is what this market looks like,

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uh,

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right now.

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And you see Ashley Moody at 98.4% chance to win.

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Uh,

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you know,

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there's a bunch of other straggler candidates there,

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but obviously,

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she's the,

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uh,

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heavy,

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heavy favorite.

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She's the senator right now.

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The reason why this is an important race for me personally

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is,

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uh,

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I bought shares in this race

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a long time ago.

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Long time ago.

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Why?

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How did I do that?

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Well,

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basically by mistake,

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because when Ashley Moody,

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so,

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if you remember,

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uh,

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this is when Marco Rubio

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leaves his Senate seat

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and,

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uh,

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and goes

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to,

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uh,

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the Trump White House.

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And he's Secretary of State,

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big deal.

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There's an open seat.

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Rhonda Santos gets to pick who's in the seat,

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and I'm watching the announcement unfurl in,

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in front of live cameras,

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and I can't remember exactly what the situation was.

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I was,

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I was definitely in the radio studio,

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uh,

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working with Glenn Beck at the time.

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And,

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uh,

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and there's a bunch of candidates on there,

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and,

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uh,

291
00:06:28.269 --> 00:06:30.239
I look up at the screen and I don't know if I'm seeing an,

292
00:06:30.269 --> 00:06:32.149
an early feed or if we were off-camera.

293
00:06:32.220 --> 00:06:32.989
I can't remember what I was seeing,

294
00:06:33.049 --> 00:06:34.170
but I remember seeing her.

295
00:06:34.500 --> 00:06:36.540
On one of the feeds and Ashley Moody's standing there.

296
00:06:36.589 --> 00:06:37.779
I know she's one of the candidates,

297
00:06:37.989 --> 00:06:38.140
uh,

298
00:06:38.190 --> 00:06:39.029
the potential candidates,

299
00:06:39.079 --> 00:06:40.049
but they hadn't announced it yet.

300
00:06:40.350 --> 00:06:41.070
And she walks out there,

301
00:06:41.190 --> 00:06:41.700
she's standing there.

302
00:06:41.709 --> 00:06:41.940
I'm like,

303
00:06:42.010 --> 00:06:42.059
well,

304
00:06:42.109 --> 00:06:42.440
they're

305
00:06:42.630 --> 00:06:44.510
either they're gonna really torture her with like

306
00:06:44.510 --> 00:06:46.109
one of these reality show type things.

307
00:06:46.190 --> 00:06:47.630
Maybe Donald Trump has implemented an

308
00:06:47.869 --> 00:06:49.489
Apprentice style thing where they're like,

309
00:06:49.709 --> 00:06:50.029
not you,

310
00:06:50.109 --> 00:06:50.429
Ashley,

311
00:06:50.470 --> 00:06:51.190
you're fired.

312
00:06:51.390 --> 00:06:52.989
But I figured since she was there,

313
00:06:53.109 --> 00:06:54.250
she probably won,

314
00:06:54.709 --> 00:06:54.859
uh,

315
00:06:54.880 --> 00:06:55.450
the pick.

316
00:06:55.750 --> 00:06:58.609
And so I'm sitting there and I'm looking at these markets and they're at

317
00:06:58.989 --> 00:06:59.869
like 98.

318
00:07:00.529 --> 00:07:00.920
And I'm like,

319
00:07:01.000 --> 00:07:01.170
well,

320
00:07:01.250 --> 00:07:01.450
you know,

321
00:07:01.570 --> 00:07:01.679
look,

322
00:07:01.730 --> 00:07:02.750
it's a couple of percent,

323
00:07:03.450 --> 00:07:03.910
but

324
00:07:04.130 --> 00:07:04.570
frankly,

325
00:07:04.690 --> 00:07:04.890
uh,

326
00:07:04.970 --> 00:07:05.049
you know,

327
00:07:05.130 --> 00:07:05.750
it was 95%,

328
00:07:05.809 --> 00:07:06.209
96,

329
00:07:06.250 --> 00:07:06.609
97,

330
00:07:06.660 --> 00:07:07.470
98% in that range.

331
00:07:07.929 --> 00:07:09.589
And I'm buying and I'm buying and I'm buying.

332
00:07:09.929 --> 00:07:10.329
Uh,

333
00:07:10.429 --> 00:07:10.440
yeah,

334
00:07:10.489 --> 00:07:11.489
I think I even started lower,

335
00:07:11.570 --> 00:07:13.410
maybe in the low 90s when I first saw her,

336
00:07:13.570 --> 00:07:13.890
but

337
00:07:14.049 --> 00:07:16.410
it got up to like 98% after she kind of came up.

338
00:07:16.489 --> 00:07:19.000
She's making the speech and it's still stickening at 98.

339
00:07:19.369 --> 00:07:20.399
I'm thinking to myself like,

340
00:07:20.649 --> 00:07:20.850
look,

341
00:07:20.929 --> 00:07:21.230
I

342
00:07:21.730 --> 00:07:23.549
have made some profit on this when it was lower.

343
00:07:24.000 --> 00:07:24.190
Uh,

344
00:07:24.320 --> 00:07:24.329
well,

345
00:07:24.440 --> 00:07:25.359
it's up to 98.

346
00:07:25.640 --> 00:07:25.799
Uh,

347
00:07:25.880 --> 00:07:26.679
I'm happy about that.

348
00:07:26.720 --> 00:07:28.799
It's gonna resolve to 100 any minute now as soon as,

349
00:07:28.880 --> 00:07:30.049
as soon as this news is,

350
00:07:30.059 --> 00:07:30.109
uh,

351
00:07:30.119 --> 00:07:30.790
fully confirmed,

352
00:07:30.880 --> 00:07:32.079
but she's out there making the speech.

353
00:07:32.119 --> 00:07:34.980
She's already been introduced by Ron DeSanttos as the next senator

354
00:07:35.429 --> 00:07:36.970
of the state of Florida or whatever it was.

355
00:07:37.880 --> 00:07:38.420
And

356
00:07:38.720 --> 00:07:39.119
I'm just,

357
00:07:39.239 --> 00:07:40.540
I'm buying and I'm buying and I'm buying,

358
00:07:40.549 --> 00:07:40.679
and,

359
00:07:40.760 --> 00:07:40.959
and,

360
00:07:41.070 --> 00:07:41.239
you know,

361
00:07:41.359 --> 00:07:42.239
I keep buying shares.

362
00:07:42.279 --> 00:07:43.320
I'm buying too many shares,

363
00:07:43.399 --> 00:07:44.459
probably too many shares.

364
00:07:44.720 --> 00:07:44.989
Um,

365
00:07:45.079 --> 00:07:45.519
and,

366
00:07:45.649 --> 00:07:46.269
uh,

367
00:07:46.359 --> 00:07:47.119
and then,

368
00:07:47.200 --> 00:07:49.600
it ends and it's just sticking there around 98,

369
00:07:49.640 --> 00:07:51.420
then drops down to like 96.

370
00:07:51.799 --> 00:07:51.910
Like,

371
00:07:51.929 --> 00:07:52.980
what is going on?

372
00:07:53.200 --> 00:07:54.820
And that's how I developed the,

373
00:07:55.890 --> 00:07:58.589
Second Amendment to the predictable Constitution,

374
00:07:58.850 --> 00:07:59.170
yes,

375
00:07:59.290 --> 00:07:59.929
of course.

376
00:08:00.920 --> 00:08:02.170
You gotta read the rules.

377
00:08:03.040 --> 00:08:04.230
Because what I was doing,

378
00:08:04.399 --> 00:08:04.910
it said,

379
00:08:04.920 --> 00:08:06.519
who's the next senator or whatever it was,

380
00:08:06.600 --> 00:08:08.549
who's going to be in the Senate seat in Florida,

381
00:08:08.559 --> 00:08:10.140
and Ashley Moody's right there at the top.

382
00:08:10.940 --> 00:08:12.779
What they were talking about was not

383
00:08:12.920 --> 00:08:13.299
the,

384
00:08:13.570 --> 00:08:14.000
uh,

385
00:08:14.119 --> 00:08:14.799
her being named.

386
00:08:15.000 --> 00:08:17.459
I think the terminology was who will be elected

387
00:08:17.600 --> 00:08:18.359
as senator.

388
00:08:18.519 --> 00:08:20.040
They were talking about this election,

389
00:08:20.160 --> 00:08:21.589
not the one a couple of years ago.

390
00:08:21.859 --> 00:08:23.459
So I've had all these shares

391
00:08:24.040 --> 00:08:25.940
sitting in this Ashley Moody account.

392
00:08:27.119 --> 00:08:27.600
Honestly,

393
00:08:27.679 --> 00:08:27.920
like,

394
00:08:28.040 --> 00:08:30.299
I kept them there instead of just selling at the time,

395
00:08:30.480 --> 00:08:30.720
uh,

396
00:08:30.799 --> 00:08:32.320
I kept them there to torture myself,

397
00:08:32.359 --> 00:08:35.330
to remind myself of the Second Amendment to the predictable Constitution,

398
00:08:35.599 --> 00:08:37.669
just like the Second Amendment to the US Constitution.

399
00:08:37.950 --> 00:08:39.308
Nobody seems to want to talk about it,

400
00:08:39.359 --> 00:08:39.590
but.

401
00:08:40.119 --> 00:08:40.429
Frankly,

402
00:08:40.469 --> 00:08:41.590
it's still part of the Constitution.

403
00:08:41.808 --> 00:08:42.849
You gotta read the rules.

404
00:08:42.929 --> 00:08:43.750
No one wants to do it.

405
00:08:44.010 --> 00:08:44.809
I didn't wanna do it.

406
00:08:45.049 --> 00:08:46.250
I was in the wrong contract.

407
00:08:46.330 --> 00:08:47.950
There was another separate contract

408
00:08:48.369 --> 00:08:50.150
for who DeSantis would name

409
00:08:50.489 --> 00:08:51.119
that would resolve,

410
00:08:51.130 --> 00:08:51.409
of course,

411
00:08:51.489 --> 00:08:52.630
at $1 moments later.

412
00:08:52.929 --> 00:08:53.250
Instead,

413
00:08:53.330 --> 00:08:55.409
I held these contracts for multiple years and

414
00:08:55.409 --> 00:08:57.190
I've actually built my position on this because.

415
00:08:57.619 --> 00:08:57.859
You know,

416
00:08:58.020 --> 00:08:58.919
Moody is someone who,

417
00:08:58.979 --> 00:08:59.219
uh,

418
00:08:59.359 --> 00:08:59.539
you know,

419
00:08:59.659 --> 00:09:01.049
doesn't make tons and tons of news.

420
00:09:01.090 --> 00:09:02.580
She's not a super splashy candidate,

421
00:09:02.820 --> 00:09:02.929
uh,

422
00:09:02.979 --> 00:09:05.159
but has strong support within the party

423
00:09:05.380 --> 00:09:06.219
from DeSantis,

424
00:09:06.380 --> 00:09:08.159
from that Florida Republican,

425
00:09:08.419 --> 00:09:09.000
um,

426
00:09:09.030 --> 00:09:09.340
group,

427
00:09:09.419 --> 00:09:09.780
and,

428
00:09:09.789 --> 00:09:10.260
uh,

429
00:09:10.380 --> 00:09:11.859
I see no reason for her to lose this.

430
00:09:11.979 --> 00:09:12.280
So

431
00:09:12.500 --> 00:09:15.140
hopefully I'll finally be cashing out of that position after a long time,

432
00:09:15.219 --> 00:09:15.520
but

433
00:09:15.780 --> 00:09:17.039
read the freaking rules,

434
00:09:17.140 --> 00:09:18.820
make sure you're in the right contract.

435
00:09:19.020 --> 00:09:20.460
Sometimes there's some that look the same.

436
00:09:20.619 --> 00:09:20.780
The,

437
00:09:20.849 --> 00:09:20.979
the,

438
00:09:21.020 --> 00:09:21.890
the question might be very,

439
00:09:21.940 --> 00:09:22.609
very similar,

440
00:09:22.780 --> 00:09:23.979
but if you're in the wrong one.

441
00:09:24.390 --> 00:09:24.789
Uh,

442
00:09:24.830 --> 00:09:25.390
that can happen.

443
00:09:25.510 --> 00:09:25.799
Hopefully,

444
00:09:25.830 --> 00:09:29.650
it's gonna turn out for the best as she looks like the overwhelming favorite to win.

445
00:09:29.880 --> 00:09:29.979
Now,

446
00:09:30.030 --> 00:09:31.109
let me go over to the other side.

447
00:09:31.150 --> 00:09:34.549
This is another contract I've talked to you about multiple times over the past,

448
00:09:34.659 --> 00:09:35.090
you know,

449
00:09:35.469 --> 00:09:35.669
uh,

450
00:09:35.750 --> 00:09:36.809
50 episodes.

451
00:09:37.030 --> 00:09:37.419
Uh,

452
00:09:37.549 --> 00:09:39.729
Florida Republican governor nominee.

453
00:09:40.349 --> 00:09:40.789
Here it is.

454
00:09:40.869 --> 00:09:41.219
This is,

455
00:09:41.270 --> 00:09:41.580
uh,

456
00:09:41.590 --> 00:09:42.489
Byron Donalds.

457
00:09:42.559 --> 00:09:42.820
Now,

458
00:09:43.030 --> 00:09:44.010
this one has had

459
00:09:45.489 --> 00:09:49.070
an interesting run because Donald's currently at 98.9%. Kind

460
00:09:49.070 --> 00:09:51.750
of fascinating that he's actually ahead of Moody,

461
00:09:51.969 --> 00:09:53.419
who's at 98.2%.

462
00:09:53.770 --> 00:09:55.159
I don't really understand that one,

463
00:09:55.169 --> 00:09:55.599
honestly.

464
00:09:55.890 --> 00:09:56.070
But,

465
00:09:56.130 --> 00:09:56.489
uh,

466
00:09:56.580 --> 00:09:56.729
you know,

467
00:09:56.849 --> 00:09:58.130
Donald's is the overwhelming favorite.

468
00:09:58.190 --> 00:10:00.270
He's leading in all of these polls.

469
00:10:00.570 --> 00:10:00.830
Uh,

470
00:10:01.210 --> 00:10:02.289
we started talking about this.

471
00:10:02.330 --> 00:10:05.090
I went back and looked at when the first time I bought this was today,

472
00:10:05.239 --> 00:10:07.010
it was at 83.9.

473
00:10:07.330 --> 00:10:10.650
So we've ridden this up from 83.9% to 98.9% with you,

474
00:10:10.729 --> 00:10:11.210
hopefully.

475
00:10:11.570 --> 00:10:11.809
Uh,

476
00:10:11.919 --> 00:10:12.260
and,

477
00:10:12.270 --> 00:10:12.469
uh,

478
00:10:12.530 --> 00:10:13.739
that has been over,

479
00:10:13.809 --> 00:10:15.909
that goes back to March is when I first bought that.

480
00:10:16.049 --> 00:10:16.330
So,

481
00:10:16.489 --> 00:10:17.049
I've been buying,

482
00:10:17.169 --> 00:10:18.690
adding to my position for a long time.

483
00:10:18.809 --> 00:10:19.190
Also,

484
00:10:19.289 --> 00:10:21.289
no on James Fishback was another big,

485
00:10:21.369 --> 00:10:22.530
I think that might be my,

486
00:10:22.929 --> 00:10:23.770
outside of Ashley Moody,

487
00:10:24.130 --> 00:10:27.650
maybe my biggest position that I have right now is a no James Fishback position.

488
00:10:27.690 --> 00:10:29.669
He's at 1.1%. I don't think

489
00:10:29.840 --> 00:10:31.690
this is going to be a particularly close election.

490
00:10:31.799 --> 00:10:33.369
I think Donald's is going to win this one.

491
00:10:33.809 --> 00:10:35.229
Relatively easily

492
00:10:35.609 --> 00:10:35.799
tomorrow,

493
00:10:35.849 --> 00:10:38.530
but it brought up an interesting thing because here we are at 98.9,

494
00:10:38.570 --> 00:10:40.150
and this is something I dealt with last week

495
00:10:40.489 --> 00:10:41.770
with uh Francesca Hong.

496
00:10:41.890 --> 00:10:42.710
I do expect

497
00:10:42.890 --> 00:10:44.489
Donald's to pop into the 99

498
00:10:44.770 --> 00:10:48.900
uh area uh here in the next 24 hours before these results even come out.

499
00:10:50.010 --> 00:10:52.289
And I will probably sell in the ninety-nines rather

500
00:10:52.289 --> 00:10:53.770
than wait for this whole thing to end.

501
00:10:54.669 --> 00:10:55.039
Um,

502
00:10:55.119 --> 00:10:55.280
you know,

503
00:10:55.349 --> 00:10:57.460
and that's partially a Francesca Hong

504
00:10:57.679 --> 00:10:58.260
lesson,

505
00:10:58.679 --> 00:11:00.840
because I could have taken a profit on Francesca Hong.

506
00:11:00.919 --> 00:11:01.909
I could have sold a small,

507
00:11:02.049 --> 00:11:02.809
small loss on her.

508
00:11:02.950 --> 00:11:03.119
Instead,

509
00:11:03.159 --> 00:11:04.119
I read that all the way to the,

510
00:11:04.159 --> 00:11:05.760
the that all the way to the bottom,

511
00:11:05.799 --> 00:11:06.239
which by the way,

512
00:11:06.320 --> 00:11:08.859
gave us a 17th Amendment to the predictable Constitution.

513
00:11:09.409 --> 00:11:09.830
17th,

514
00:11:09.869 --> 00:11:10.330
of course,

515
00:11:10.510 --> 00:11:12.770
a smaller loss is a win.

516
00:11:12.989 --> 00:11:15.039
A very important thing to remember when you,

517
00:11:15.049 --> 00:11:15.450
uh,

518
00:11:15.520 --> 00:11:16.559
maybe got something

519
00:11:16.750 --> 00:11:18.940
wrong or you're a little bit now shaky on it.

520
00:11:19.070 --> 00:11:21.750
It's OK to lose a few bucks rather than riding it all the way to 0.

521
00:11:21.950 --> 00:11:22.969
Very difficult for me to do.

522
00:11:23.299 --> 00:11:24.469
I'm trying to remind myself right here.

523
00:11:24.510 --> 00:11:26.770
I got a little card on my desk that says 17th Amendment,

524
00:11:26.909 --> 00:11:27.950
a smaller losses win.

525
00:11:28.169 --> 00:11:29.119
Important thing to remember.

526
00:11:29.770 --> 00:11:31.489
I don't think that's gonna be the case with Donald's tomorrow.

527
00:11:31.640 --> 00:11:31.770
Uh,

528
00:11:31.809 --> 00:11:34.729
I was much more nervous about Hong going into this than I,

529
00:11:34.809 --> 00:11:34.969
you know,

530
00:11:35.010 --> 00:11:35.169
I mean,

531
00:11:35.250 --> 00:11:36.150
I thought she was gonna win.

532
00:11:36.489 --> 00:11:36.609
I,

533
00:11:36.690 --> 00:11:38.559
I did think it was gonna be closer than 20 points.

534
00:11:38.809 --> 00:11:40.150
I thought maybe it might be 6.

535
00:11:40.640 --> 00:11:41.570
The fact that she would lose,

536
00:11:41.580 --> 00:11:44.239
I honestly didn't really enter my mind until

537
00:11:44.239 --> 00:11:46.330
about an hour into the results coming out.

538
00:11:46.409 --> 00:11:49.479
I still thought she was gonna come back and win once certain counties reported.

539
00:11:49.690 --> 00:11:50.789
It was a weird election.

540
00:11:50.929 --> 00:11:52.849
We'll get into some more details on that here in a second.

541
00:11:53.090 --> 00:11:54.200
But I wanna highlight something that,

542
00:11:54.210 --> 00:11:54.400
uh,

543
00:11:54.409 --> 00:11:55.169
PMT said,

544
00:11:55.210 --> 00:11:55.669
uh,

545
00:11:55.799 --> 00:11:56.590
we've known on,

546
00:11:56.599 --> 00:11:57.010
uh,

547
00:11:57.090 --> 00:11:59.289
on the line as Pred M trader on,

548
00:11:59.320 --> 00:12:00.049
uh,

549
00:12:00.059 --> 00:12:00.109
uh,

550
00:12:00.130 --> 00:12:00.960
on Twitter,

551
00:12:01.289 --> 00:12:01.960
but he is a,

552
00:12:02.250 --> 00:12:02.789
he does mostly,

553
00:12:02.849 --> 00:12:04.010
I mean he trades all sorts of stuff.

554
00:12:04.090 --> 00:12:06.059
He's kind of known for his mention market trading,

555
00:12:06.169 --> 00:12:06.289
very,

556
00:12:06.369 --> 00:12:07.049
very good at that.

557
00:12:07.479 --> 00:12:08.119
But he says this,

558
00:12:08.169 --> 00:12:08.809
and this is,

559
00:12:08.969 --> 00:12:09.559
this is true.

560
00:12:09.729 --> 00:12:11.190
And if you're new to prediction markets,

561
00:12:11.479 --> 00:12:13.590
it is a new frontier.

562
00:12:14.169 --> 00:12:17.250
Because I've been in prediction markets since at least 2014,

563
00:12:17.619 --> 00:12:18.159
um,

564
00:12:18.369 --> 00:12:18.789
and

565
00:12:19.010 --> 00:12:20.190
this sort of stuff happened

566
00:12:20.609 --> 00:12:22.429
all the time until recently.

567
00:12:22.809 --> 00:12:23.609
Let me give you what he said.

568
00:12:23.690 --> 00:12:23.960
He said,

569
00:12:24.049 --> 00:12:24.950
back in my day,

570
00:12:25.090 --> 00:12:30.010
someone with the social media virality of fishback would easily be at 10 to 20%.

571
00:12:30.369 --> 00:12:30.770
Nowadays,

572
00:12:30.820 --> 00:12:32.960
you got a million dollars happy to take 1%,

573
00:12:33.340 --> 00:12:34.349
shaking my head.

574
00:12:34.539 --> 00:12:34.880
Um,

575
00:12:35.099 --> 00:12:36.919
so this is the point he's making is

576
00:12:37.099 --> 00:12:39.179
Fishback is at 1.1%,

577
00:12:39.219 --> 00:12:40.659
I think was what we just saw on the live market,

578
00:12:40.700 --> 00:12:41.169
1.1%,

579
00:12:41.219 --> 00:12:42.179
1.2%.

580
00:12:42.619 --> 00:12:45.200
This is a guy who gets a lot of social media attention.

581
00:12:45.500 --> 00:12:46.770
He's been talked about a lot.

582
00:12:47.049 --> 00:12:47.380
He's been,

583
00:12:47.419 --> 00:12:47.619
you know,

584
00:12:47.849 --> 00:12:50.500
some people call him anti-Semitic and all these other things.

585
00:12:51.049 --> 00:12:51.440
Um,

586
00:12:51.580 --> 00:12:54.179
he's the type of guy that I don't think has any chance of winning this,

587
00:12:54.280 --> 00:12:54.679
really.

588
00:12:54.940 --> 00:12:55.059
Uh,

589
00:12:55.140 --> 00:12:56.830
I don't think he's going to win this election.

590
00:12:56.940 --> 00:12:58.099
I will be shocked if he,

591
00:12:58.179 --> 00:12:58.380
uh,

592
00:12:58.619 --> 00:13:00.559
honestly comes close to winning this election.

593
00:13:01.580 --> 00:13:02.049
Um,

594
00:13:02.190 --> 00:13:03.150
this is unlike,

595
00:13:03.309 --> 00:13:03.469
you know,

596
00:13:03.630 --> 00:13:03.750
uh,

597
00:13:03.869 --> 00:13:04.179
uh,

598
00:13:04.429 --> 00:13:06.070
James Crowley in Wisconsin,

599
00:13:06.150 --> 00:13:06.750
who was a,

600
00:13:06.900 --> 00:13:06.979
uh,

601
00:13:07.030 --> 00:13:07.119
uh,

602
00:13:07.190 --> 00:13:07.549
uh,

603
00:13:07.580 --> 00:13:09.130
supported by the establishment.

604
00:13:09.349 --> 00:13:12.289
He was endorsed by the current governor of the state.

605
00:13:12.789 --> 00:13:12.950
Uh,

606
00:13:13.109 --> 00:13:13.590
he was,

607
00:13:13.669 --> 00:13:13.849
uh,

608
00:13:13.950 --> 00:13:17.489
he had tons and tons of money coming in for his campaign.

609
00:13:17.669 --> 00:13:19.650
He was the only guy really there left

610
00:13:19.789 --> 00:13:20.809
to oppose this,

611
00:13:20.989 --> 00:13:21.419
um,

612
00:13:21.820 --> 00:13:24.270
seen as a weak candidate in a general election,

613
00:13:24.390 --> 00:13:25.289
Francesca Hong.

614
00:13:25.659 --> 00:13:27.580
This is not that situation at all in Florida.

615
00:13:27.859 --> 00:13:29.400
Donald's is generally speaking,

616
00:13:29.460 --> 00:13:31.280
a well-regarded guy on the right.

617
00:13:31.539 --> 00:13:34.020
Donald Trump has supported him the entire time,

618
00:13:34.299 --> 00:13:34.500
uh,

619
00:13:34.659 --> 00:13:36.640
been very early in supporting him.

620
00:13:36.979 --> 00:13:37.059
Uh,

621
00:13:37.179 --> 00:13:40.679
James Fishback has kind of gone viral because he gets online a lot.

622
00:13:40.820 --> 00:13:42.340
He makes a lot of kind of outlandish

623
00:13:42.340 --> 00:13:44.340
statements that some people say are terrible and,

624
00:13:44.419 --> 00:13:44.539
and,

625
00:13:44.619 --> 00:13:45.719
and controversial.

626
00:13:46.229 --> 00:13:46.619
Frankly,

627
00:13:46.700 --> 00:13:46.979
like,

628
00:13:47.099 --> 00:13:47.599
you know,

629
00:13:47.900 --> 00:13:47.979
uh,

630
00:13:48.130 --> 00:13:48.260
you know,

631
00:13:48.380 --> 00:13:49.960
I would tend to agree with some of that analysis,

632
00:13:50.020 --> 00:13:51.159
but that's not the point here.

633
00:13:51.409 --> 00:13:51.789
The point is,

634
00:13:51.809 --> 00:13:52.659
who are you gonna pick?

635
00:13:52.859 --> 00:13:52.900
Uh,

636
00:13:52.979 --> 00:13:53.840
who's going to win?

637
00:13:54.210 --> 00:13:55.210
And I think that,

638
00:13:55.250 --> 00:13:55.969
the truth is,

639
00:13:56.049 --> 00:13:56.359
uh,

640
00:13:56.369 --> 00:13:57.280
Donald's is gonna win this,

641
00:13:57.289 --> 00:13:59.390
and we've been talking about that for months and months and months.

642
00:14:00.280 --> 00:14:02.799
There there was a time in prediction markets

643
00:14:03.080 --> 00:14:03.340
where

644
00:14:03.840 --> 00:14:05.460
you could make that assessment today

645
00:14:05.760 --> 00:14:07.500
and get 10 and 20% of your money.

646
00:14:08.570 --> 00:14:10.479
This stuff is drying up a lot faster than it used to.

647
00:14:10.609 --> 00:14:11.650
The markets are getting much,

648
00:14:11.809 --> 00:14:12.530
much smarter.

649
00:14:12.650 --> 00:14:13.090
To the extent,

650
00:14:13.130 --> 00:14:15.489
I think even in the Francesca Hong thing,

651
00:14:15.570 --> 00:14:17.219
we'll talk about this in the next segment a little bit,

652
00:14:17.409 --> 00:14:17.650
but like,

653
00:14:17.690 --> 00:14:20.070
they're almost getting too smart for their own good at times,

654
00:14:20.450 --> 00:14:21.549
and that can almost be,

655
00:14:21.570 --> 00:14:21.880
uh,

656
00:14:21.890 --> 00:14:22.710
a problem.

657
00:14:23.210 --> 00:14:24.750
In this particular situation.

658
00:14:25.979 --> 00:14:28.140
You had to be out ahead of this market.

659
00:14:28.270 --> 00:14:31.900
It's one of the reasons why we talked about it on multiple live streams months ago.

660
00:14:32.109 --> 00:14:34.219
We talked about it with Michelle Tafoya last week,

661
00:14:34.349 --> 00:14:34.700
right?

662
00:14:35.030 --> 00:14:36.590
We wanted you to get 1015,

663
00:14:36.679 --> 00:14:37.289
20%.

664
00:14:37.349 --> 00:14:37.830
To do that,

665
00:14:37.909 --> 00:14:40.049
you had to be months ahead of this.

666
00:14:40.349 --> 00:14:42.549
It's no longer you could just walk in the night

667
00:14:42.549 --> 00:14:45.260
before the election and pick up your 10 or 23%.

668
00:14:45.789 --> 00:14:47.210
Those days seemingly are gone.

669
00:14:47.549 --> 00:14:50.630
It's one of the reasons why I think if you are trading these markets at any,

670
00:14:50.710 --> 00:14:51.020
uh,

671
00:14:51.030 --> 00:14:51.710
higher level,

672
00:14:51.789 --> 00:14:53.340
like as far as actual money that you,

673
00:14:53.429 --> 00:14:54.710
you care about winning or losing.

674
00:14:55.150 --> 00:14:55.669
Uh,

675
00:14:55.750 --> 00:14:55.869
I,

676
00:14:55.950 --> 00:14:56.109
you know,

677
00:14:56.229 --> 00:14:58.710
that's why I think the premium subscription is worth your time to

678
00:14:58.710 --> 00:15:01.210
get those picks early to get out in front of these things because

679
00:15:01.349 --> 00:15:03.609
it's getting harder and harder to pick this stuff up.

680
00:15:03.900 --> 00:15:04.330
Um,

681
00:15:04.710 --> 00:15:05.429
I wanna show you,

682
00:15:05.500 --> 00:15:06.250
can I show you the polls?

683
00:15:06.309 --> 00:15:08.070
We have the New York Times polls here of,

684
00:15:08.150 --> 00:15:09.369
of what this race looks like.

685
00:15:09.669 --> 00:15:09.950
And again,

686
00:15:09.989 --> 00:15:10.309
you can,

687
00:15:10.390 --> 00:15:11.849
you can dismiss polls all you want.

688
00:15:11.950 --> 00:15:12.270
Um,

689
00:15:12.750 --> 00:15:14.260
there's been good reason to do this lately.

690
00:15:14.349 --> 00:15:16.210
There's not a super recent poll.

691
00:15:16.719 --> 00:15:16.919
Uh,

692
00:15:17.000 --> 00:15:19.380
but Donalds has led pretty much every poll

693
00:15:19.599 --> 00:15:20.640
by a very large margin,

694
00:15:20.710 --> 00:15:22.400
50 to 16 over Collins,

695
00:15:22.440 --> 00:15:23.239
who's actually in second,

696
00:15:23.320 --> 00:15:24.590
Fishback in third with 12%.

697
00:15:24.679 --> 00:15:25.119
Next poll,

698
00:15:25.359 --> 00:15:26.330
49,

699
00:15:26.340 --> 00:15:26.479
uh,

700
00:15:26.559 --> 00:15:28.200
to 18 for Collins,

701
00:15:28.359 --> 00:15:29.239
8% for Renner,

702
00:15:29.320 --> 00:15:31.880
only 4% for Fishback in that particular poll.

703
00:15:31.929 --> 00:15:33.440
Remember these numbers for Fishback if you,

704
00:15:33.520 --> 00:15:34.030
if you will.

705
00:15:34.320 --> 00:15:34.760
Donald's,

706
00:15:34.770 --> 00:15:35.109
uh,

707
00:15:35.200 --> 00:15:36.679
32 to 19 in,

708
00:15:36.739 --> 00:15:37.070
in,

709
00:15:37.109 --> 00:15:37.229
uh,

710
00:15:37.239 --> 00:15:37.989
late July,

711
00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:40.020
13% for Fishback in that one.

712
00:15:40.330 --> 00:15:40.630
Um,

713
00:15:40.809 --> 00:15:43.909
the other thing I would just point you out as you're looking at these fish back 9%,

714
00:15:44.099 --> 00:15:45.179
fishback 12%.

715
00:15:45.409 --> 00:15:47.469
He's around 10% in most of these polls.

716
00:15:47.729 --> 00:15:48.700
Only one was he

717
00:15:49.330 --> 00:15:49.760
the sub,

718
00:15:49.830 --> 00:15:50.119
uh,

719
00:15:50.130 --> 00:15:50.320
for,

720
00:15:50.330 --> 00:15:50.440
uh,

721
00:15:50.450 --> 00:15:51.909
10% by a significant amount.

722
00:15:52.280 --> 00:15:53.469
But just scroll back up on these,

723
00:15:53.690 --> 00:15:54.770
31% don't know,

724
00:15:54.890 --> 00:15:55.450
23%.

725
00:15:55.739 --> 00:15:56.229
don't know.

726
00:15:56.469 --> 00:15:56.789
Uh,

727
00:15:56.830 --> 00:15:57.989
14% don't know,

728
00:15:58.059 --> 00:15:59.070
17% don't know,

729
00:15:59.179 --> 00:16:00.340
32% don't know.

730
00:16:00.590 --> 00:16:02.099
Lots of undecided in these polls.

731
00:16:02.260 --> 00:16:03.549
The reason I bring that up is I wanna

732
00:16:03.549 --> 00:16:05.900
bring up one interesting market that I think has some

733
00:16:06.309 --> 00:16:07.830
value for you potentially tomorrow,

734
00:16:07.909 --> 00:16:10.849
which is James Fishback vote percentage markets.

735
00:16:11.260 --> 00:16:11.429
Uh,

736
00:16:11.549 --> 00:16:11.669
all right,

737
00:16:11.750 --> 00:16:12.669
we're diving a little bit deeper.

738
00:16:12.710 --> 00:16:13.869
This is just wins and losses.

739
00:16:13.950 --> 00:16:14.109
So,

740
00:16:14.309 --> 00:16:14.739
uh,

741
00:16:14.830 --> 00:16:17.750
you might not care particularly about this if you're only caring about who wins.

742
00:16:18.250 --> 00:16:19.440
But if you're in the markets,

743
00:16:19.739 --> 00:16:21.260
a lot of times when you have a 98,

744
00:16:21.320 --> 00:16:22.400
99% favorite,

745
00:16:23.099 --> 00:16:25.369
where you have to go is either into the margin markets,

746
00:16:25.419 --> 00:16:28.359
which is which candidate is going to win by and by how much,

747
00:16:28.700 --> 00:16:30.099
and the vote percent markets,

748
00:16:30.179 --> 00:16:30.690
which are,

749
00:16:30.979 --> 00:16:33.099
will a candidate clear a certain vote percentage.

750
00:16:33.179 --> 00:16:35.450
Can you bring up the Fishback one if we have to have that handy?

751
00:16:35.710 --> 00:16:36.500
This is James Fishback,

752
00:16:36.570 --> 00:16:36.849
who's,

753
00:16:36.940 --> 00:16:37.090
again,

754
00:16:37.140 --> 00:16:38.200
a viral candidate.

755
00:16:38.580 --> 00:16:40.159
His projection right now,

756
00:16:40.440 --> 00:16:40.580
uh,

757
00:16:40.619 --> 00:16:44.280
the markets are saying about 10.7% is what they believe

758
00:16:44.500 --> 00:16:45.020
overall.

759
00:16:45.099 --> 00:16:46.380
But if you scroll down a little bit here,

760
00:16:46.460 --> 00:16:46.700
Adam,

761
00:16:46.770 --> 00:16:47.359
you'll see.

762
00:16:47.534 --> 00:16:47.684
Uh,

763
00:16:47.744 --> 00:16:48.375
each market here.

764
00:16:48.455 --> 00:16:49.215
Give me the 12 more,

765
00:16:49.284 --> 00:16:49.335
yeah,

766
00:16:49.484 --> 00:16:49.734
show them all,

767
00:16:49.895 --> 00:16:50.344
show me all these.

768
00:16:50.414 --> 00:16:50.674
So,

769
00:16:50.844 --> 00:16:52.015
at least 1%.

770
00:16:52.335 --> 00:16:54.054
This actually was an interesting,

771
00:16:54.375 --> 00:16:56.515
the one I wish I didn't bail on because

772
00:16:56.775 --> 00:16:58.114
he was in a legal battle

773
00:16:58.414 --> 00:16:59.955
for any of his votes to count.

774
00:17:00.335 --> 00:17:02.854
He apparently he did not actually meet the vote,

775
00:17:02.934 --> 00:17:03.094
uh,

776
00:17:03.135 --> 00:17:03.565
the,

777
00:17:03.655 --> 00:17:04.045
uh,

778
00:17:04.055 --> 00:17:06.473
residency requirements to run for governor.

779
00:17:06.765 --> 00:17:07.574
And I think honestly,

780
00:17:07.614 --> 00:17:08.935
that was probably true.

781
00:17:08.993 --> 00:17:09.135
I mean,

782
00:17:09.175 --> 00:17:12.334
he seemed to move to Washington DC during COVID.

783
00:17:12.828 --> 00:17:13.167
You know,

784
00:17:13.259 --> 00:17:14.348
but I kind of was,

785
00:17:14.588 --> 00:17:14.858
my,

786
00:17:14.989 --> 00:17:18.188
my belief was they're not gonna disqualify him over that.

787
00:17:18.259 --> 00:17:19.848
It was COVID and it was weird.

788
00:17:19.948 --> 00:17:23.348
He seemed to have voted in DC during an election that probably he

789
00:17:23.628 --> 00:17:24.909
shouldn't have if it was going,

790
00:17:24.989 --> 00:17:26.108
if he's going to qualify for governor.

791
00:17:26.188 --> 00:17:27.009
Long story short,

792
00:17:27.400 --> 00:17:27.780
Uh,

793
00:17:27.920 --> 00:17:30.160
I bought some shares of at least 1%,

794
00:17:30.400 --> 00:17:32.560
which was about a 50/50 chance at the time

795
00:17:32.560 --> 00:17:34.260
because people weren't sure how that ruling would go,

796
00:17:34.599 --> 00:17:36.800
and then I chickened out and sold it for basically no,

797
00:17:37.079 --> 00:17:37.729
just even

798
00:17:37.920 --> 00:17:38.640
it wound up going up,

799
00:17:38.760 --> 00:17:39.160
so I should have,

800
00:17:39.280 --> 00:17:39.949
I should have held it,

801
00:17:40.000 --> 00:17:41.819
but I was worried about just projecting what

802
00:17:42.040 --> 00:17:45.339
my opinion of the court's decision without really understanding the details.

803
00:17:45.630 --> 00:17:45.760
Uh,

804
00:17:46.000 --> 00:17:46.300
anyway,

805
00:17:46.560 --> 00:17:47.739
that's just me complaining.

806
00:17:48.000 --> 00:17:49.790
The bottom line is if he's in this election,

807
00:17:49.839 --> 00:17:50.400
which he is,

808
00:17:50.520 --> 00:17:51.579
his votes will count.

809
00:17:51.959 --> 00:17:53.160
He's certainly gonna clear 1%,

810
00:17:53.199 --> 00:17:55.640
which is why it showed at 99.7%.

811
00:17:55.869 --> 00:17:56.780
But you saw those polls,

812
00:17:56.829 --> 00:18:00.030
he's at 10 to 12% in almost every poll.

813
00:18:00.760 --> 00:18:01.770
And you see,

814
00:18:01.859 --> 00:18:02.170
uh,

815
00:18:02.290 --> 00:18:02.810
as this gets,

816
00:18:03.020 --> 00:18:03.410
he's at,

817
00:18:03.489 --> 00:18:03.959
uh,

818
00:18:04.050 --> 00:18:05.729
his chances of getting at least 5%,

819
00:18:05.810 --> 00:18:06.390
for example,

820
00:18:06.719 --> 00:18:07.109
are

821
00:18:07.209 --> 00:18:08.550
93%.

822
00:18:08.849 --> 00:18:09.010
Um,

823
00:18:09.089 --> 00:18:10.209
so there's a little bit of profit there.

824
00:18:10.270 --> 00:18:10.770
Is it 6,

825
00:18:10.920 --> 00:18:11.729
he's gonna get 6%?

826
00:18:11.770 --> 00:18:11.849
Well,

827
00:18:11.930 --> 00:18:13.329
now it's 87% chance.

828
00:18:13.530 --> 00:18:14.369
Does he get to 7?

829
00:18:14.530 --> 00:18:16.270
That's a 79% chance of happening,

830
00:18:16.449 --> 00:18:17.680
and so on and so on and so on.

831
00:18:17.719 --> 00:18:18.989
If you go to 10% though,

832
00:18:19.449 --> 00:18:22.229
you're looking at almost doubling your money at 10%,

833
00:18:22.569 --> 00:18:22.949
and

834
00:18:23.050 --> 00:18:25.489
he's been about at 10% in every poll,

835
00:18:25.569 --> 00:18:26.329
which would make sense,

836
00:18:26.439 --> 00:18:26.569
right?

837
00:18:26.650 --> 00:18:26.849
Like,

838
00:18:26.939 --> 00:18:27.630
OK,

839
00:18:28.170 --> 00:18:29.689
every poll saying he's about 10%.

840
00:18:30.109 --> 00:18:31.829
These markets are saying there's about a 50/50,

841
00:18:31.880 --> 00:18:34.079
a little over 50% chance he'll get over 10%.

842
00:18:34.849 --> 00:18:36.040
But if you add on to that,

843
00:18:36.050 --> 00:18:36.849
the undecideds,

844
00:18:36.890 --> 00:18:37.319
which are,

845
00:18:37.609 --> 00:18:37.770
you know,

846
00:18:38.010 --> 00:18:40.319
sometimes as much as 30% in these polls,

847
00:18:40.569 --> 00:18:43.869
you have to figure he's going to pull up some of those people.

848
00:18:44.329 --> 00:18:44.599
So,

849
00:18:45.170 --> 00:18:45.569
these,

850
00:18:45.729 --> 00:18:47.229
this is the interesting area.

851
00:18:47.489 --> 00:18:47.599
Like,

852
00:18:47.609 --> 00:18:50.930
I think it's possible he even hits some of these like 1314,

853
00:18:51.030 --> 00:18:52.589
15% markets,

854
00:18:53.119 --> 00:18:55.410
even though I don't think he's gonna be competitive to win.

855
00:18:55.770 --> 00:18:55.920
You know,

856
00:18:56.050 --> 00:18:56.060
uh,

857
00:18:56.209 --> 00:18:57.030
15%,

858
00:18:57.130 --> 00:18:57.510
which again,

859
00:18:57.530 --> 00:18:58.199
is a long shot.

860
00:18:58.209 --> 00:18:58.469
I don't,

861
00:18:58.530 --> 00:18:58.890
you know,

862
00:18:59.329 --> 00:18:59.489
you're,

863
00:18:59.569 --> 00:19:00.969
you're risking a little bit here.

864
00:19:01.089 --> 00:19:01.369
You're not,

865
00:19:01.530 --> 00:19:01.689
you know,

866
00:19:01.770 --> 00:19:03.109
you're getting cheaper shares here.

867
00:19:04.449 --> 00:19:05.560
Will it get to 15?

868
00:19:05.859 --> 00:19:08.160
There's only a 19% chance of that happening.

869
00:19:09.589 --> 00:19:10.739
That might be a little high,

870
00:19:10.910 --> 00:19:12.459
but there could be some longshot,

871
00:19:12.469 --> 00:19:12.989
money,

872
00:19:13.020 --> 00:19:15.790
and I do feel like there's definitely profit in that 5%,

873
00:19:15.910 --> 00:19:16.510
6%,

874
00:19:16.589 --> 00:19:18.329
7% area that's possible.

875
00:19:18.670 --> 00:19:18.829
Uh,

876
00:19:18.949 --> 00:19:20.489
so I do have positions kind of,

877
00:19:20.750 --> 00:19:20.949
they,

878
00:19:21.030 --> 00:19:22.170
they start a little bit bigger,

879
00:19:22.430 --> 00:19:22.709
uh,

880
00:19:22.790 --> 00:19:23.540
as I'm more sure,

881
00:19:23.550 --> 00:19:24.420
and they get a little bit smaller,

882
00:19:24.709 --> 00:19:26.869
mostly marker positions in this sort of area,

883
00:19:26.949 --> 00:19:28.130
but I do think there's a chance

884
00:19:28.630 --> 00:19:31.689
watching him come out that he could hit some of these numbers

885
00:19:31.869 --> 00:19:32.790
that are a little bit higher.

886
00:19:32.849 --> 00:19:34.750
I would not go above 15.

887
00:19:35.150 --> 00:19:35.229
Uh,

888
00:19:35.310 --> 00:19:36.290
it's possible.

889
00:19:36.510 --> 00:19:37.229
It's not impossible.

890
00:19:37.270 --> 00:19:37.390
I mean,

891
00:19:37.469 --> 00:19:37.910
if he's at,

892
00:19:38.229 --> 00:19:41.300
If his real percentage is at 12 or 13% in these polls,

893
00:19:41.550 --> 00:19:43.430
and there's 30% undecided,

894
00:19:43.630 --> 00:19:44.530
he could pick up

895
00:19:44.790 --> 00:19:45.510
a third of those.

896
00:19:45.589 --> 00:19:45.670
I mean,

897
00:19:45.750 --> 00:19:46.739
it's not impossible,

898
00:19:47.069 --> 00:19:47.390
though I,

899
00:19:47.489 --> 00:19:48.260
I tend to doubt it.

900
00:19:48.310 --> 00:19:49.420
I think Bob Donald's will,

901
00:19:49.560 --> 00:19:50.550
will do pretty well.

902
00:19:50.750 --> 00:19:52.229
And there's some Donald's markets that are,

903
00:19:52.270 --> 00:19:52.420
you know,

904
00:19:52.510 --> 00:19:55.630
looking at him in the 60s and 70s that are interesting as well.

905
00:19:55.750 --> 00:19:56.010
So,

906
00:19:56.150 --> 00:19:57.069
that's something if you're in,

907
00:19:57.119 --> 00:19:57.989
you're trading these markets,

908
00:19:58.069 --> 00:19:59.130
if you like that sort of stuff,

909
00:19:59.310 --> 00:20:00.609
I'd say you could dig into that.

910
00:20:00.819 --> 00:20:03.530
And then I just want to highlight one other thing as far as strategy goes.

911
00:20:04.060 --> 00:20:04.569
Um,

912
00:20:04.869 --> 00:20:06.170
there's only a few more primaries left.

913
00:20:06.939 --> 00:20:11.089
One of the reasons why you don't invest in the November elections super early

914
00:20:11.290 --> 00:20:12.150
is because,

915
00:20:12.260 --> 00:20:12.949
uh,

916
00:20:13.010 --> 00:20:13.630
you have,

917
00:20:13.719 --> 00:20:14.040
uh,

918
00:20:14.170 --> 00:20:16.680
you have to think about a couple of our constitutional amendments.

919
00:20:16.890 --> 00:20:16.979
Uh,

920
00:20:17.050 --> 00:20:17.800
the Seventh Amendment,

921
00:20:17.810 --> 00:20:17.969
which is,

922
00:20:18.130 --> 00:20:19.250
which is know your APR.

923
00:20:19.339 --> 00:20:20.760
What is your annual percentage rate?

924
00:20:21.130 --> 00:20:22.310
What are you getting on this,

925
00:20:22.410 --> 00:20:22.719
right?

926
00:20:22.930 --> 00:20:23.250
If you,

927
00:20:23.329 --> 00:20:24.609
if you're only getting a few points,

928
00:20:24.680 --> 00:20:25.599
56 points,

929
00:20:25.770 --> 00:20:27.670
but you're holding it for 6 or 7 months.

930
00:20:28.300 --> 00:20:28.459
You know,

931
00:20:28.530 --> 00:20:31.079
it's not as sexy as being able to take

932
00:20:31.380 --> 00:20:32.239
a few percent

933
00:20:32.619 --> 00:20:33.859
each week in a primary.

934
00:20:33.939 --> 00:20:34.660
We can take that money,

935
00:20:34.739 --> 00:20:35.140
we could put,

936
00:20:35.339 --> 00:20:36.060
if you have 100 bucks,

937
00:20:36.099 --> 00:20:38.650
you can make $5 and you got 105 bucks to go the next time,

938
00:20:38.780 --> 00:20:39.770
you turn it into 111,

939
00:20:39.819 --> 00:20:40.380
112.

940
00:20:40.479 --> 00:20:41.969
Then the next week you turn another 5%,

941
00:20:42.020 --> 00:20:43.130
you turn that to 117,

942
00:20:43.209 --> 00:20:43.819
118%.

943
00:20:44.020 --> 00:20:44.390
And by the way,

944
00:20:44.459 --> 00:20:45.500
the time we get to November,

945
00:20:45.540 --> 00:20:47.380
you got a lot more money to invest in those elections.

946
00:20:48.439 --> 00:20:49.869
When these primaries end though,

947
00:20:50.329 --> 00:20:52.150
people are gonna start putting money into these,

948
00:20:52.329 --> 00:20:52.680
uh,

949
00:20:52.689 --> 00:20:53.150
November

950
00:20:53.449 --> 00:20:53.890
markets.

951
00:20:54.010 --> 00:20:56.130
We're now less than 3 months away and it's start to,

952
00:20:56.250 --> 00:20:58.750
starting the time to really take some of that easier money

953
00:20:59.170 --> 00:20:59.869
off the table

954
00:21:00.170 --> 00:21:01.010
in those election markets.

955
00:21:01.119 --> 00:21:01.550
Can you give me,

956
00:21:01.650 --> 00:21:01.800
uh,

957
00:21:01.890 --> 00:21:02.599
do we have like a map,

958
00:21:02.650 --> 00:21:03.369
one of the map views,

959
00:21:03.410 --> 00:21:04.810
either Calci or poly market?

960
00:21:04.880 --> 00:21:05.410
What do we have here,

961
00:21:05.489 --> 00:21:05.930
Adam?

962
00:21:06.199 --> 00:21:06.329
Uh,

963
00:21:06.410 --> 00:21:06.689
here's a,

964
00:21:06.819 --> 00:21:08.310
this is one of the map views of the Senate,

965
00:21:08.530 --> 00:21:08.849
OK?

966
00:21:09.050 --> 00:21:09.489
Just to give you,

967
00:21:09.650 --> 00:21:09.770
uh,

968
00:21:09.810 --> 00:21:11.790
this is Calci's version of this map.

969
00:21:12.469 --> 00:21:13.339
And if you see here,

970
00:21:13.630 --> 00:21:16.150
what they do is give you the typical thing that you're expecting,

971
00:21:16.229 --> 00:21:16.349
right?

972
00:21:16.430 --> 00:21:17.469
The red and blue states,

973
00:21:17.550 --> 00:21:18.260
who's favored.

974
00:21:18.589 --> 00:21:19.290
And then you see,

975
00:21:19.430 --> 00:21:19.739
uh,

976
00:21:19.750 --> 00:21:21.010
some of the yellow states which are,

977
00:21:21.310 --> 00:21:22.670
I don't know if yellow or orange,

978
00:21:22.829 --> 00:21:23.500
kind of looks like a

979
00:21:24.270 --> 00:21:24.589
I don't know,

980
00:21:24.670 --> 00:21:25.170
like a,

981
00:21:25.510 --> 00:21:26.890
a mustard yellow,

982
00:21:27.150 --> 00:21:27.849
let's call it.

983
00:21:28.229 --> 00:21:30.619
So the mustard yellow is sort of those toss-up type states.

984
00:21:30.989 --> 00:21:33.219
Those are the states that will probably decide the Senate,

985
00:21:33.229 --> 00:21:33.790
as you see,

986
00:21:33.920 --> 00:21:34.250
Texas,

987
00:21:34.349 --> 00:21:35.170
very slight favorite,

988
00:21:35.510 --> 00:21:35.660
uh,

989
00:21:35.670 --> 00:21:36.439
for the Republicans,

990
00:21:36.520 --> 00:21:37.050
uh,

991
00:21:37.060 --> 00:21:37.469
Alaska,

992
00:21:37.510 --> 00:21:39.569
slight favorite for the Democrats,

993
00:21:39.900 --> 00:21:40.150
uh,

994
00:21:40.270 --> 00:21:40.390
you know,

995
00:21:40.430 --> 00:21:41.630
you kind of go through this and you can,

996
00:21:41.750 --> 00:21:42.420
you can check through that.

997
00:21:42.430 --> 00:21:44.390
It's a nice easy way to kind of get a view of the Senate.

998
00:21:45.660 --> 00:21:47.119
When you're looking at the

999
00:21:47.579 --> 00:21:48.290
value here,

1000
00:21:48.380 --> 00:21:49.739
let me show you a state like Idaho,

1001
00:21:49.819 --> 00:21:50.310
for example.

1002
00:21:50.540 --> 00:21:50.619
Now,

1003
00:21:50.729 --> 00:21:52.089
Jim Risch is a sitting,

1004
00:21:52.260 --> 00:21:53.540
sitting senator in Idaho.

1005
00:21:53.900 --> 00:21:54.180
Um,

1006
00:21:54.260 --> 00:21:55.540
you do know where Idaho is on the map,

1007
00:21:55.599 --> 00:21:55.780
right?

1008
00:21:55.900 --> 00:21:57.089
I'm not surprising you with this,

1009
00:21:57.140 --> 00:21:57.219
right,

1010
00:21:57.569 --> 00:21:57.780
Adam?

1011
00:21:57.849 --> 00:21:57.979
OK,

1012
00:21:58.060 --> 00:21:58.300
good.

1013
00:21:58.459 --> 00:21:58.569
Uh,

1014
00:21:58.619 --> 00:21:59.020
you see,

1015
00:21:59.099 --> 00:21:59.359
uh,

1016
00:21:59.619 --> 00:22:02.060
Jim Risch at 92% to win.

1017
00:22:02.180 --> 00:22:03.319
Todd Achilles

1018
00:22:03.790 --> 00:22:05.119
is at 8%.

1019
00:22:05.709 --> 00:22:06.069
Look,

1020
00:22:07.619 --> 00:22:09.810
The First Amendment to our Constitution is a sure thing,

1021
00:22:09.819 --> 00:22:10.810
always has air quotes.

1022
00:22:11.140 --> 00:22:11.459
OK?

1023
00:22:11.650 --> 00:22:12.920
A sure thing is never a sure thing,

1024
00:22:13.020 --> 00:22:13.459
but

1025
00:22:13.739 --> 00:22:14.560
it would be.

1026
00:22:15.859 --> 00:22:19.160
Monumentally stunning if Jim Risch were to lose this race.

1027
00:22:19.420 --> 00:22:23.199
And now you're thinking about 8% to be able to to win over,

1028
00:22:23.859 --> 00:22:24.599
let's say,

1029
00:22:24.900 --> 00:22:27.040
a period of uh several

1030
00:22:27.439 --> 00:22:28.260
uh months,

1031
00:22:28.500 --> 00:22:28.739
right?

1032
00:22:29.089 --> 00:22:30.060
Less than 3 months.

1033
00:22:30.420 --> 00:22:33.619
So your 8% over 3 months would be 32%

1034
00:22:33.780 --> 00:22:34.380
APR.

1035
00:22:34.979 --> 00:22:36.449
That's a nice return

1036
00:22:36.790 --> 00:22:38.229
on a race like that.

1037
00:22:38.430 --> 00:22:38.939
I'll give you,

1038
00:22:38.949 --> 00:22:39.079
uh,

1039
00:22:39.109 --> 00:22:39.829
a couple of others.

1040
00:22:39.939 --> 00:22:40.109
Uh,

1041
00:22:40.229 --> 00:22:40.790
Mississippi,

1042
00:22:40.939 --> 00:22:41.270
for example.

1043
00:22:41.390 --> 00:22:42.030
Mississippi,

1044
00:22:42.310 --> 00:22:43.410
Cindy Hyde-Smith is there.

1045
00:22:43.510 --> 00:22:44.810
She's a 92% favorite.

1046
00:22:44.900 --> 00:22:45.109
Again,

1047
00:22:45.150 --> 00:22:47.020
it would be stunning if she were to lose this race.

1048
00:22:47.189 --> 00:22:47.890
South Dakota,

1049
00:22:48.180 --> 00:22:48.310
uh,

1050
00:22:48.390 --> 00:22:48.869
is Jim,

1051
00:22:48.939 --> 00:22:49.140
is,

1052
00:22:49.150 --> 00:22:49.430
uh,

1053
00:22:49.510 --> 00:22:50.099
Rounds,

1054
00:22:50.349 --> 00:22:50.619
who's,

1055
00:22:50.660 --> 00:22:50.910
uh,

1056
00:22:51.000 --> 00:22:51.459
uh,

1057
00:22:51.550 --> 00:22:52.300
we know where South Dakota is,

1058
00:22:52.310 --> 00:22:52.630
there it is.

1059
00:22:52.790 --> 00:22:53.790
He's at 93%.

1060
00:22:53.869 --> 00:22:53.989
Again,

1061
00:22:54.109 --> 00:22:54.869
7% favorite.

1062
00:22:54.989 --> 00:22:56.050
These are all

1063
00:22:56.750 --> 00:22:58.170
there for the taking,

1064
00:22:58.469 --> 00:23:03.109
and frankly would be absolutely stunning if any of them went the opposite way.

1065
00:23:03.550 --> 00:23:03.910
Look at,

1066
00:23:03.979 --> 00:23:04.329
uh,

1067
00:23:04.339 --> 00:23:04.589
Oregon,

1068
00:23:04.630 --> 00:23:05.140
uh,

1069
00:23:05.390 --> 00:23:05.910
let's go to,

1070
00:23:05.949 --> 00:23:06.160
uh,

1071
00:23:06.270 --> 00:23:08.349
give me New Mexico is another good example on the left.

1072
00:23:08.469 --> 00:23:09.170
The chances

1073
00:23:09.390 --> 00:23:09.719
of,

1074
00:23:09.750 --> 00:23:09.900
uh,

1075
00:23:09.949 --> 00:23:10.609
a sitting

1076
00:23:11.469 --> 00:23:13.300
Democratic senator in New Mexico losing,

1077
00:23:13.550 --> 00:23:13.630
uh,

1078
00:23:13.709 --> 00:23:15.209
now it says 94% on the map,

1079
00:23:15.349 --> 00:23:16.869
it says 98% when you bring it up.

1080
00:23:16.910 --> 00:23:17.910
I'm not sure which one it is,

1081
00:23:17.920 --> 00:23:18.489
honestly,

1082
00:23:18.739 --> 00:23:18.859
uh,

1083
00:23:18.910 --> 00:23:19.150
right now,

1084
00:23:19.229 --> 00:23:19.589
but you know,

1085
00:23:19.630 --> 00:23:20.689
if you can get 6%

1086
00:23:20.939 --> 00:23:22.130
in a Democratic year

1087
00:23:22.349 --> 00:23:23.369
in New Mexico,

1088
00:23:24.030 --> 00:23:24.849
that's a nice

1089
00:23:25.030 --> 00:23:26.329
thing to pocket right now.

1090
00:23:26.430 --> 00:23:26.849
Like,

1091
00:23:26.989 --> 00:23:27.459
take that,

1092
00:23:27.589 --> 00:23:28.229
pocket it.

1093
00:23:28.530 --> 00:23:28.849
Um,

1094
00:23:28.969 --> 00:23:29.060
you know,

1095
00:23:29.140 --> 00:23:30.199
a couple of other races,

1096
00:23:30.209 --> 00:23:31.479
as you get a little bit more,

1097
00:23:31.660 --> 00:23:31.979
uh,

1098
00:23:32.099 --> 00:23:32.890
down the line,

1099
00:23:33.140 --> 00:23:35.439
you start seeing these in the 80s and 90s.

1100
00:23:35.660 --> 00:23:36.079
Um,

1101
00:23:36.900 --> 00:23:37.959
they're nice to take,

1102
00:23:38.180 --> 00:23:40.380
especially if you can get that now because that's the

1103
00:23:40.380 --> 00:23:42.859
type of value that will probably go away relatively quickly.

1104
00:23:42.959 --> 00:23:44.219
I would say Minnesota is another one.

1105
00:23:44.260 --> 00:23:45.209
I know a lot of people,

1106
00:23:45.300 --> 00:23:46.000
there's hopes there

1107
00:23:46.420 --> 00:23:47.160
in Minnesota,

1108
00:23:47.380 --> 00:23:48.339
but you look at Minnesota,

1109
00:23:48.619 --> 00:23:49.839
90% chance,

1110
00:23:50.089 --> 00:23:50.500
uh,

1111
00:23:50.660 --> 00:23:50.930
for,

1112
00:23:51.020 --> 00:23:51.209
uh,

1113
00:23:51.449 --> 00:23:52.020
Peggy Flanagan.

1114
00:23:52.099 --> 00:23:53.939
She's at 88 right now over Michelle Tafoya.

1115
00:23:53.979 --> 00:23:55.020
I really like Michelle Tafoya.

1116
00:23:55.060 --> 00:23:56.910
I would really like Michelle Tafoya to win that race.

1117
00:23:57.459 --> 00:24:00.020
Chances of her winning in Minnesota are not great.

1118
00:24:00.219 --> 00:24:02.619
And there's a little more risk there than I would say in Idaho,

1119
00:24:03.020 --> 00:24:03.239
but,

1120
00:24:03.359 --> 00:24:03.780
uh,

1121
00:24:03.959 --> 00:24:04.209
in a,

1122
00:24:04.329 --> 00:24:05.359
in a Democratic year,

1123
00:24:05.660 --> 00:24:06.859
the chances of a,

1124
00:24:06.969 --> 00:24:09.140
an upset here in a state like that are,

1125
00:24:09.180 --> 00:24:09.900
it's unlikely.

1126
00:24:10.020 --> 00:24:11.510
So getting 12%

1127
00:24:11.699 --> 00:24:12.660
over 3 months,

1128
00:24:12.890 --> 00:24:13.849
it's actually less than 3 months,

1129
00:24:13.900 --> 00:24:15.219
so these numbers would be slightly higher,

1130
00:24:15.300 --> 00:24:16.319
but you're talking about.

1131
00:24:16.680 --> 00:24:17.030
You know,

1132
00:24:17.280 --> 00:24:18.109
nearly 50%,

1133
00:24:18.199 --> 00:24:19.750
probably a little bit over 50%

1134
00:24:19.959 --> 00:24:20.599
APR

1135
00:24:20.959 --> 00:24:22.099
for a race like this,

1136
00:24:22.439 --> 00:24:23.160
kind of nice.

1137
00:24:23.400 --> 00:24:24.819
Look for these opportunities now.

1138
00:24:25.089 --> 00:24:26.400
This is one of the reasons why I also

1139
00:24:26.400 --> 00:24:28.530
talk about when we're talking about these toss-up races,

1140
00:24:28.630 --> 00:24:29.859
I like Iowa quite a bit,

1141
00:24:30.040 --> 00:24:30.150
uh,

1142
00:24:30.199 --> 00:24:31.550
Iowa and Ashley Hinson,

1143
00:24:31.760 --> 00:24:33.660
she's at 56%.

1144
00:24:33.959 --> 00:24:34.400
Um,

1145
00:24:34.859 --> 00:24:34.869
go,

1146
00:24:34.959 --> 00:24:35.310
let's go to,

1147
00:24:35.359 --> 00:24:36.640
what do we have poly market up as well?

1148
00:24:36.699 --> 00:24:37.630
I don't know if poly market is,

1149
00:24:37.670 --> 00:24:37.880
uh,

1150
00:24:37.959 --> 00:24:38.339
has anything,

1151
00:24:38.560 --> 00:24:38.939
uh,

1152
00:24:38.959 --> 00:24:39.099
different,

1153
00:24:39.349 --> 00:24:42.300
but let me show you a couple of these races as well on the polymarket side.

1154
00:24:42.699 --> 00:24:43.189
Um,

1155
00:24:43.310 --> 00:24:43.469
uh,

1156
00:24:43.589 --> 00:24:44.819
do they have the governor's ones?

1157
00:24:44.839 --> 00:24:46.609
I don't know how easy that is to click around,

1158
00:24:46.670 --> 00:24:47.030
uh,

1159
00:24:47.189 --> 00:24:47.459
there.

1160
00:24:47.550 --> 00:24:47.829
Do we have,

1161
00:24:47.869 --> 00:24:47.969
uh,

1162
00:24:48.030 --> 00:24:49.459
the 88% chance to take the house,

1163
00:24:49.550 --> 00:24:49.790
they say,

1164
00:24:49.869 --> 00:24:50.920
which is pretty freaking high,

1165
00:24:51.020 --> 00:24:53.229
51% chance now Democrats take the Senate,

1166
00:24:53.550 --> 00:24:53.750
uh,

1167
00:24:53.910 --> 00:24:54.270
there,

1168
00:24:54.430 --> 00:24:55.829
is there a governor's page to that?

1169
00:24:55.910 --> 00:24:56.550
I don't know if there is.

1170
00:24:56.619 --> 00:24:56.819
If not,

1171
00:24:56.869 --> 00:24:57.560
we can go back to the Clihi one,

1172
00:24:57.569 --> 00:24:57.579
but

1173
00:24:58.380 --> 00:25:00.810
there's a couple of good breakdowns on both sites.

1174
00:25:01.150 --> 00:25:01.449
Uh,

1175
00:25:01.699 --> 00:25:02.609
I like that view

1176
00:25:02.709 --> 00:25:04.189
because you can kind of see just a couple of

1177
00:25:04.189 --> 00:25:06.109
races where you could pick these things off early.

1178
00:25:06.550 --> 00:25:08.239
Some of these profits will hang around for a while.

1179
00:25:08.510 --> 00:25:13.069
A state like Texas is gonna be probably in that 50/50 range for a little bit.

1180
00:25:13.319 --> 00:25:14.199
You have time on that one,

1181
00:25:14.280 --> 00:25:15.270
you can see what happens.

1182
00:25:15.560 --> 00:25:17.670
Here are the gubernatorial races and like,

1183
00:25:17.680 --> 00:25:18.630
look at a state like,

1184
00:25:18.640 --> 00:25:19.750
uh,

1185
00:25:19.760 --> 00:25:20.900
Texas is a good one here,

1186
00:25:20.920 --> 00:25:23.339
if you can find Texas on this particular list.

1187
00:25:24.119 --> 00:25:24.739
Texas,

1188
00:25:25.079 --> 00:25:25.310
uh,

1189
00:25:25.349 --> 00:25:25.859
is at

1190
00:25:25.959 --> 00:25:28.079
86% Republicans to win.

1191
00:25:28.750 --> 00:25:28.949
Now,

1192
00:25:29.069 --> 00:25:30.270
the Senate race is getting all the,

1193
00:25:30.390 --> 00:25:30.579
the,

1194
00:25:30.790 --> 00:25:31.010
the,

1195
00:25:31.109 --> 00:25:32.589
the spiciness because,

1196
00:25:32.630 --> 00:25:33.020
um,

1197
00:25:33.150 --> 00:25:33.810
basically,

1198
00:25:34.109 --> 00:25:34.229
you know,

1199
00:25:34.349 --> 00:25:35.750
they think Tallarico is a good candidate.

1200
00:25:35.829 --> 00:25:37.040
I tend to disagree with that,

1201
00:25:37.150 --> 00:25:40.349
but Paxson does have his issues and because Paxson's vulnerable there,

1202
00:25:40.459 --> 00:25:41.689
it's a 50/50 race.

1203
00:25:42.189 --> 00:25:42.750
Because of that,

1204
00:25:42.829 --> 00:25:44.650
you're getting polling that's showing

1205
00:25:44.869 --> 00:25:45.550
a guy like,

1206
00:25:45.630 --> 00:25:45.829
uh,

1207
00:25:45.949 --> 00:25:46.770
Greg Abbott,

1208
00:25:46.839 --> 00:25:48.369
who has won multiple terms here,

1209
00:25:48.900 --> 00:25:49.060
uh,

1210
00:25:49.150 --> 00:25:50.430
and is the overwhelming favorite,

1211
00:25:50.510 --> 00:25:50.750
I think,

1212
00:25:50.869 --> 00:25:51.550
to win this race,

1213
00:25:51.630 --> 00:25:52.660
even though polls show with,

1214
00:25:52.739 --> 00:25:52.910
you know,

1215
00:25:53.109 --> 00:25:54.069
3 to 5 points,

1216
00:25:54.189 --> 00:25:55.250
he's leading right now.

1217
00:25:55.689 --> 00:25:56.010
Uh,

1218
00:25:56.140 --> 00:25:57.020
he's at 86.

1219
00:25:57.180 --> 00:25:57.930
Is there value there?

1220
00:25:58.020 --> 00:25:59.119
I think the answer to that

1221
00:25:59.300 --> 00:26:00.099
is yes.

1222
00:26:00.369 --> 00:26:00.619
Uh,

1223
00:26:00.739 --> 00:26:00.819
uh,

1224
00:26:00.930 --> 00:26:01.260
you know,

1225
00:26:01.739 --> 00:26:02.020
again,

1226
00:26:02.140 --> 00:26:03.670
14% over 3 months,

1227
00:26:03.739 --> 00:26:05.780
you're talking about a 56% APR

1228
00:26:06.140 --> 00:26:09.739
in a race of Texas governor where you don't have the weaknesses of a,

1229
00:26:09.900 --> 00:26:11.420
of a Ken Paxton as a candidate.

1230
00:26:11.699 --> 00:26:11.939
You know,

1231
00:26:12.030 --> 00:26:12.380
um,

1232
00:26:12.699 --> 00:26:12.989
uh,

1233
00:26:13.140 --> 00:26:14.020
Vermont governor,

1234
00:26:14.060 --> 00:26:14.219
I mean,

1235
00:26:14.329 --> 00:26:14.359
uh,

1236
00:26:14.540 --> 00:26:14.660
you know,

1237
00:26:14.709 --> 00:26:14.930
I don't know,

1238
00:26:14.979 --> 00:26:16.020
I haven't seen any polling on that,

1239
00:26:16.180 --> 00:26:16.339
but,

1240
00:26:16.420 --> 00:26:16.619
uh,

1241
00:26:16.739 --> 00:26:18.520
that's a Republican in Vermont.

1242
00:26:18.979 --> 00:26:19.180
Uh,

1243
00:26:19.739 --> 00:26:19.939
Scott,

1244
00:26:20.060 --> 00:26:20.569
Phil Scott,

1245
00:26:20.979 --> 00:26:21.359
very,

1246
00:26:21.400 --> 00:26:21.900
very popular there,

1247
00:26:21.979 --> 00:26:23.640
one of the most popular governors in the country.

1248
00:26:24.229 --> 00:26:24.420
Now,

1249
00:26:24.550 --> 00:26:27.310
you have the catastrophic outcomes of really

1250
00:26:27.310 --> 00:26:30.729
bad Republican year that could theoretically sink

1251
00:26:30.989 --> 00:26:31.390
a Scott,

1252
00:26:31.510 --> 00:26:34.910
but like a 10% yield in less than in less than 3 months,

1253
00:26:35.079 --> 00:26:35.949
you're talking about 40,

1254
00:26:36.030 --> 00:26:36.790
50%

1255
00:26:36.949 --> 00:26:37.550
APR.

1256
00:26:38.189 --> 00:26:38.390
There,

1257
00:26:38.510 --> 00:26:40.050
these type of opportunities are

1258
00:26:40.310 --> 00:26:41.449
all literally

1259
00:26:41.560 --> 00:26:42.989
all over the map right now.

1260
00:26:44.430 --> 00:26:45.599
All over the freaking map.

1261
00:26:45.640 --> 00:26:46.979
And if you get nervous about them,

1262
00:26:47.280 --> 00:26:48.040
I'm gonna say this cause,

1263
00:26:48.050 --> 00:26:48.390
you know,

1264
00:26:48.430 --> 00:26:48.560
I'm,

1265
00:26:48.609 --> 00:26:49.560
I'm a conservative.

1266
00:26:49.640 --> 00:26:50.959
I don't apologize for that,

1267
00:26:51.079 --> 00:26:51.380
but

1268
00:26:52.119 --> 00:26:52.650
If you're worried,

1269
00:26:52.729 --> 00:26:54.489
if you see one that's a 90% Republican,

1270
00:26:54.569 --> 00:26:55.469
90% Democrat,

1271
00:26:55.680 --> 00:26:59.140
a lot of times the Democrat one is even safer because you're most likely,

1272
00:26:59.369 --> 00:27:01.880
the tide of this election is going to lean more Democrat,

1273
00:27:02.130 --> 00:27:02.250
uh,

1274
00:27:02.369 --> 00:27:03.329
and if that's true,

1275
00:27:03.589 --> 00:27:03.770
uh,

1276
00:27:03.849 --> 00:27:05.449
the Democrats are gonna be a little bit more

1277
00:27:05.449 --> 00:27:07.719
safer when you're talking the 80 to 90% range,

1278
00:27:07.800 --> 00:27:10.829
but those opportunities are freaking all over the place right now.

1279
00:27:11.209 --> 00:27:12.189
And you can hop into that,

1280
00:27:12.199 --> 00:27:14.290
and if you just wanna lock yourself in on some of your capital,

1281
00:27:14.369 --> 00:27:15.430
you want to keep some of it free.

1282
00:27:15.869 --> 00:27:17.150
But lock some of those things in so they just

1283
00:27:17.150 --> 00:27:18.989
kind of churn and churn and churn and churn.

1284
00:27:19.060 --> 00:27:20.750
By the time we get closer to the election,

1285
00:27:20.989 --> 00:27:24.589
a lot of those elections are going to be instead of 88 to 92,

1286
00:27:24.790 --> 00:27:27.130
they're gonna be 96 to 99.

1287
00:27:27.390 --> 00:27:28.140
You can take your money,

1288
00:27:28.189 --> 00:27:31.170
you can sell out of that and get into a more interesting election at that time,

1289
00:27:31.430 --> 00:27:33.050
but you're going to have that run,

1290
00:27:33.609 --> 00:27:33.920
uh,

1291
00:27:33.949 --> 00:27:35.250
over the next few weeks

1292
00:27:35.510 --> 00:27:36.209
of those,

1293
00:27:36.390 --> 00:27:37.030
uh,

1294
00:27:37.040 --> 00:27:39.760
races that we're talking about ticking up very slowly,

1295
00:27:39.949 --> 00:27:40.140
uh,

1296
00:27:40.150 --> 00:27:40.900
over that time.

1297
00:27:41.069 --> 00:27:41.430
And when we,

1298
00:27:41.510 --> 00:27:42.910
once we hit a lot of these people,

1299
00:27:43.030 --> 00:27:43.609
big money

1300
00:27:43.739 --> 00:27:44.989
has money in these primaries.

1301
00:27:45.410 --> 00:27:45.650
Um,

1302
00:27:45.770 --> 00:27:47.199
when they are done with these primaries,

1303
00:27:47.250 --> 00:27:48.689
they're gonna start going into that type of race,

1304
00:27:48.770 --> 00:27:49.060
I think,

1305
00:27:49.130 --> 00:27:49.790
early on.

1306
00:27:50.050 --> 00:27:50.329
Um,

1307
00:27:50.449 --> 00:27:50.680
so,

1308
00:27:50.890 --> 00:27:51.050
you know,

1309
00:27:51.130 --> 00:27:51.890
a lot of these people,

1310
00:27:51.969 --> 00:27:53.089
and I'm one of them honestly,

1311
00:27:53.219 --> 00:27:54.670
who are in prediction markets and,

1312
00:27:54.760 --> 00:27:55.040
you know,

1313
00:27:55.609 --> 00:27:56.369
spend a decent amount of money,

1314
00:27:56.439 --> 00:27:56.760
and it's,

1315
00:27:56.849 --> 00:27:57.589
it's my job,

1316
00:27:57.750 --> 00:27:57.890
right?

1317
00:27:57.939 --> 00:27:59.089
This is what I'm doing all the time.

1318
00:27:59.170 --> 00:28:00.489
So this might not be what you're doing,

1319
00:28:00.609 --> 00:28:00.719
but,

1320
00:28:00.800 --> 00:28:01.910
and that's totally OK.

1321
00:28:02.489 --> 00:28:03.569
But when we're talking about,

1322
00:28:03.890 --> 00:28:04.040
uh,

1323
00:28:04.050 --> 00:28:04.829
these markets,

1324
00:28:05.140 --> 00:28:05.550
um,

1325
00:28:05.890 --> 00:28:06.609
I don't,

1326
00:28:06.729 --> 00:28:06.920
like,

1327
00:28:07.130 --> 00:28:09.319
it's fun to talk about the Texas elections,

1328
00:28:09.329 --> 00:28:11.489
and I think there's some value there still in Paxton.

1329
00:28:11.930 --> 00:28:12.380
Um,

1330
00:28:12.500 --> 00:28:12.619
you know,

1331
00:28:12.770 --> 00:28:13.709
at 52%.

1332
00:28:13.979 --> 00:28:14.780
But like most of the time,

1333
00:28:14.900 --> 00:28:15.819
I'm not going after the,

1334
00:28:15.900 --> 00:28:17.500
I don't want 50/50 things.

1335
00:28:17.540 --> 00:28:18.650
I don't want risk like that.

1336
00:28:18.780 --> 00:28:21.140
There's a lot of these things where you can just pick away and just,

1337
00:28:21.199 --> 00:28:21.319
you know,

1338
00:28:21.410 --> 00:28:21.459
say,

1339
00:28:21.599 --> 00:28:22.099
hey this is actually,

1340
00:28:22.140 --> 00:28:22.979
I think that's a 96,

1341
00:28:23.040 --> 00:28:23.420
97,

1342
00:28:23.500 --> 00:28:24.430
98%

1343
00:28:24.660 --> 00:28:25.400
chance of happening,

1344
00:28:25.540 --> 00:28:25.880
not

1345
00:28:26.010 --> 00:28:26.540
88%.

1346
00:28:26.619 --> 00:28:28.170
And you get that value and just lock in that

1347
00:28:28.170 --> 00:28:30.020
value over and over and over and over again.

1348
00:28:30.150 --> 00:28:31.609
It's much easier to repeat

1349
00:28:31.869 --> 00:28:32.609
and you don't have those

1350
00:28:32.750 --> 00:28:35.540
nights where you're having mild heart attacks as the votes are being counted.

1351
00:28:35.719 --> 00:28:35.869
OK,

1352
00:28:35.939 --> 00:28:36.390
I gotta take a break.

1353
00:28:36.430 --> 00:28:37.250
I won't wait too long there.

1354
00:28:37.349 --> 00:28:37.589
Um,

1355
00:28:37.709 --> 00:28:38.589
so I apologize for that.

1356
00:28:38.670 --> 00:28:39.189
We're gonna take a break.

1357
00:28:39.229 --> 00:28:40.329
We're gonna come back on the other side

1358
00:28:40.790 --> 00:28:41.099
with,

1359
00:28:41.109 --> 00:28:42.089
uh,

1360
00:28:42.099 --> 00:28:43.180
polling errors.

1361
00:28:43.400 --> 00:28:44.819
What happened in Wisconsin?

1362
00:28:44.989 --> 00:28:46.729
What can we learn going forward?

1363
00:28:47.150 --> 00:28:48.310
Back with more in a second.

1364
00:29:03.380 --> 00:29:03.979
So,

1365
00:29:04.300 --> 00:29:05.780
if you missed last week's show,

1366
00:29:05.900 --> 00:29:07.479
you may not know

1367
00:29:07.979 --> 00:29:11.119
that I did get caught with my Hong in hand last week,

1368
00:29:11.260 --> 00:29:12.599
and I was not happy about that.

1369
00:29:13.099 --> 00:29:13.979
Francesca Hong,

1370
00:29:14.060 --> 00:29:15.119
the candidate in.

1371
00:29:15.900 --> 00:29:16.839
Wisconsin,

1372
00:29:17.260 --> 00:29:18.479
heavy favorite to win.

1373
00:29:18.939 --> 00:29:21.119
I held on to my position too long

1374
00:29:21.569 --> 00:29:24.219
and uh wound up eating up most of my

1375
00:29:24.219 --> 00:29:28.800
profits from an otherwise very successful uh last primary

1376
00:29:29.260 --> 00:29:29.339
election.

1377
00:29:29.380 --> 00:29:30.329
It was one of the bigger elections,

1378
00:29:30.339 --> 00:29:32.020
I think I had 29 different positions.

1379
00:29:32.099 --> 00:29:34.880
We went 27 and 2 and I barely made any money

1380
00:29:35.260 --> 00:29:36.729
because I was an idiot on this one,

1381
00:29:36.739 --> 00:29:38.839
and this is something of course important to remember.

1382
00:29:39.760 --> 00:29:39.890
Uh,

1383
00:29:40.010 --> 00:29:41.290
so we're kind of looking at this,

1384
00:29:41.300 --> 00:29:44.150
and I wanna make sure we don't just pass by that

1385
00:29:44.489 --> 00:29:45.410
consequence or that,

1386
00:29:45.489 --> 00:29:45.719
that,

1387
00:29:45.780 --> 00:29:48.459
that occurrence because it was a really big deal.

1388
00:29:48.650 --> 00:29:49.630
Very rarely

1389
00:29:49.969 --> 00:29:51.719
do we get surprised like we did on,

1390
00:29:51.790 --> 00:29:51.800
uh,

1391
00:29:51.810 --> 00:29:53.079
on Tuesday.

1392
00:29:53.410 --> 00:29:53.520
Uh,

1393
00:29:53.599 --> 00:29:55.219
and the reason wasn't just polling.

1394
00:29:55.369 --> 00:29:55.479
We,

1395
00:29:55.530 --> 00:29:57.270
we also had some assumptions about the race,

1396
00:29:57.520 --> 00:29:57.550
uh,

1397
00:29:57.609 --> 00:29:57.800
that,

1398
00:29:57.930 --> 00:29:58.130
you know,

1399
00:29:58.329 --> 00:29:59.189
may or may not have been,

1400
00:29:59.209 --> 00:29:59.599
uh,

1401
00:29:59.609 --> 00:29:59.810
correct,

1402
00:29:59.890 --> 00:30:00.829
which of course was

1403
00:30:01.130 --> 00:30:02.489
the sort of this progressive wave.

1404
00:30:02.530 --> 00:30:04.589
We've been following that in state after state after state.

1405
00:30:05.109 --> 00:30:05.310
Uh,

1406
00:30:05.390 --> 00:30:09.949
and we kind of got on that bandwagon and maybe missed some of the details here.

1407
00:30:10.069 --> 00:30:11.709
And I wanna go over a little bit of this,

1408
00:30:11.750 --> 00:30:12.170
uh,

1409
00:30:12.270 --> 00:30:14.099
this look back from the New York Times,

1410
00:30:14.150 --> 00:30:14.300
uh,

1411
00:30:14.310 --> 00:30:16.719
how the polls got it so wrong in Wisconsin

1412
00:30:16.989 --> 00:30:18.150
with Francesca Hong.

1413
00:30:18.260 --> 00:30:18.979
As you know,

1414
00:30:19.430 --> 00:30:22.869
she was leading on average in these polls by about 19% points.

1415
00:30:22.910 --> 00:30:24.300
And so one of the things that I do when I,

1416
00:30:24.380 --> 00:30:25.310
when I look at this,

1417
00:30:25.869 --> 00:30:27.709
you look at multiple other things other than polls.

1418
00:30:27.780 --> 00:30:29.170
But when I'm just considering polls,

1419
00:30:29.349 --> 00:30:29.949
I don't,

1420
00:30:30.310 --> 00:30:30.390
I,

1421
00:30:30.469 --> 00:30:31.170
I have very

1422
00:30:31.780 --> 00:30:33.800
I like polls because I do think they give us information,

1423
00:30:33.939 --> 00:30:35.060
but they are blunt objects,

1424
00:30:35.140 --> 00:30:35.920
not surgical instruments.

1425
00:30:37.140 --> 00:30:39.400
They tell us generalities about races.

1426
00:30:39.660 --> 00:30:42.260
And so when you look at something and you see a,

1427
00:30:42.339 --> 00:30:43.680
a 2-point lead,

1428
00:30:44.020 --> 00:30:46.140
I don't take that as telling me that it's a two-point lead.

1429
00:30:46.219 --> 00:30:46.380
Uh,

1430
00:30:46.540 --> 00:30:47.939
I take that as telling me we don't know,

1431
00:30:48.380 --> 00:30:48.530
right?

1432
00:30:48.660 --> 00:30:50.359
Like a 2-point lead is not a two-point lead.

1433
00:30:50.739 --> 00:30:51.650
A 2-point lead is a,

1434
00:30:51.719 --> 00:30:52.020
huh,

1435
00:30:52.180 --> 00:30:52.540
who knows,

1436
00:30:52.619 --> 00:30:53.339
a shoulder shrug.

1437
00:30:53.420 --> 00:30:53.699
I don't know.

1438
00:30:53.800 --> 00:30:54.400
Anything could happen.

1439
00:30:54.819 --> 00:30:56.010
When it's a 5 or 6-point lead,

1440
00:30:56.020 --> 00:30:56.540
you start getting into,

1441
00:30:56.660 --> 00:30:56.810
well,

1442
00:30:56.900 --> 00:30:58.920
maybe we have a little bit of a leaner idea,

1443
00:30:59.020 --> 00:30:59.339
but still,

1444
00:30:59.569 --> 00:31:00.180
anything can happen.

1445
00:31:00.609 --> 00:31:01.959
You get up to 10 points,

1446
00:31:02.010 --> 00:31:02.500
you start thinking,

1447
00:31:02.569 --> 00:31:02.770
OK,

1448
00:31:02.849 --> 00:31:03.270
there's,

1449
00:31:03.810 --> 00:31:06.209
especially if there's a lot of polls that show that same thing,

1450
00:31:06.449 --> 00:31:07.839
you start getting a little bit more confident,

1451
00:31:07.890 --> 00:31:10.250
but you still see there are outliers that,

1452
00:31:10.369 --> 00:31:11.390
that go the other way.

1453
00:31:11.770 --> 00:31:13.449
When you start getting into 19 or 20 points,

1454
00:31:13.530 --> 00:31:15.660
that's so many layers of separation.

1455
00:31:16.050 --> 00:31:18.030
When it was showing up in multiple polls

1456
00:31:18.250 --> 00:31:19.390
that were statewide.

1457
00:31:20.160 --> 00:31:20.599
I started,

1458
00:31:20.680 --> 00:31:20.839
you know,

1459
00:31:20.920 --> 00:31:23.239
you get to that point where it makes you a little bit more confident,

1460
00:31:23.439 --> 00:31:25.709
especially when it aligns with your other views on the race,

1461
00:31:25.780 --> 00:31:26.040
right?

1462
00:31:26.319 --> 00:31:28.359
The fact that the Democrats have been choosing the more

1463
00:31:28.359 --> 00:31:30.630
liberal candidate over and over and over and over again,

1464
00:31:30.680 --> 00:31:31.800
the Democratic Socialist.

1465
00:31:32.119 --> 00:31:32.640
Generally speaking,

1466
00:31:32.719 --> 00:31:33.719
we just saw that happen

1467
00:31:34.430 --> 00:31:35.199
even in Michigan.

1468
00:31:35.479 --> 00:31:36.160
One of the things I,

1469
00:31:36.270 --> 00:31:37.959
that did cause me hesitation,

1470
00:31:37.969 --> 00:31:41.180
so I didn't make my position too big on Francesca Hong was

1471
00:31:41.579 --> 00:31:42.420
what we saw

1472
00:31:42.680 --> 00:31:44.459
in Michigan the week before,

1473
00:31:44.680 --> 00:31:45.560
where Syed still,

1474
00:31:45.670 --> 00:31:46.859
Al Sayed still won.

1475
00:31:47.609 --> 00:31:49.000
But he did not win by much.

1476
00:31:49.099 --> 00:31:51.920
It was a much closer election than people had expected.

1477
00:31:52.140 --> 00:31:53.859
That was when we caught the Haley Hail Mary,

1478
00:31:53.979 --> 00:31:54.579
which was a,

1479
00:31:54.699 --> 00:31:56.219
was a very profitable trade for us.

1480
00:31:56.530 --> 00:31:56.739
So,

1481
00:31:56.859 --> 00:31:57.089
uh,

1482
00:31:57.180 --> 00:31:58.750
they try to break down some of these,

1483
00:31:58.780 --> 00:31:59.430
and some of these,

1484
00:31:59.459 --> 00:31:59.699
honestly,

1485
00:31:59.739 --> 00:32:01.449
I just think are just flat out excuses,

1486
00:32:01.660 --> 00:32:03.880
like just excuses for polling that they don't deserve.

1487
00:32:04.410 --> 00:32:05.079
Some of them are.

1488
00:32:05.329 --> 00:32:05.760
Are true,

1489
00:32:06.089 --> 00:32:07.530
but I wanna make sure we look at this and,

1490
00:32:07.579 --> 00:32:10.420
and take lessons from it as we go forward so we don't,

1491
00:32:10.579 --> 00:32:10.959
you know,

1492
00:32:11.099 --> 00:32:11.939
and I say we,

1493
00:32:12.140 --> 00:32:13.540
a lot of you made money on that race.

1494
00:32:13.660 --> 00:32:14.689
A lot of you saw it coming.

1495
00:32:14.939 --> 00:32:15.280
So

1496
00:32:15.420 --> 00:32:16.180
when I say we,

1497
00:32:16.300 --> 00:32:17.069
I mean me

1498
00:32:17.260 --> 00:32:17.530
and,

1499
00:32:17.540 --> 00:32:17.849
uh,

1500
00:32:17.859 --> 00:32:19.239
all of the dumb thoughts I have in my head.

1501
00:32:19.369 --> 00:32:19.719
OK,

1502
00:32:19.969 --> 00:32:21.000
uh,

1503
00:32:21.219 --> 00:32:22.180
what happened on election day?

1504
00:32:22.260 --> 00:32:22.640
Well,

1505
00:32:23.300 --> 00:32:24.380
this is one I've heard a lot of,

1506
00:32:24.459 --> 00:32:25.599
which is basically

1507
00:32:26.180 --> 00:32:29.040
the polls showed Hong's vote percentage to be

1508
00:32:29.180 --> 00:32:30.099
basically right.

1509
00:32:30.609 --> 00:32:30.699
Uh,

1510
00:32:30.780 --> 00:32:31.660
and this is true.

1511
00:32:31.859 --> 00:32:32.020
Uh,

1512
00:32:32.099 --> 00:32:34.939
the polls basically said that Hong would get about 40% of the vote.

1513
00:32:35.020 --> 00:32:36.680
She went up with 39% of the vote.

1514
00:32:37.140 --> 00:32:37.300
What,

1515
00:32:37.349 --> 00:32:37.760
of course,

1516
00:32:37.900 --> 00:32:38.219
you know,

1517
00:32:38.459 --> 00:32:38.579
again,

1518
00:32:38.699 --> 00:32:39.199
that doesn't

1519
00:32:39.339 --> 00:32:42.180
make anybody feel better who lost money in a prediction market over it,

1520
00:32:42.420 --> 00:32:43.239
largely because

1521
00:32:43.979 --> 00:32:46.699
we're looking for different things than the polls sometimes provide.

1522
00:32:46.780 --> 00:32:48.180
I think this is largely an excuse,

1523
00:32:48.260 --> 00:32:48.579
frankly,

1524
00:32:48.660 --> 00:32:51.400
the fact that they got one side of it right and the other side wrong

1525
00:32:51.699 --> 00:32:53.199
is not necessarily,

1526
00:32:53.459 --> 00:32:53.920
uh,

1527
00:32:53.930 --> 00:32:55.260
an argument for polling.

1528
00:32:55.650 --> 00:32:56.479
But that is true.

1529
00:32:56.719 --> 00:32:57.030
They,

1530
00:32:57.369 --> 00:32:59.160
they didn't miss by that much on Hong's percentage.

1531
00:32:59.219 --> 00:33:00.420
What basically happened was

1532
00:33:00.680 --> 00:33:01.859
all the other vote

1533
00:33:02.079 --> 00:33:02.780
went to Crowley.

1534
00:33:03.160 --> 00:33:04.599
All the other undecided vote,

1535
00:33:04.760 --> 00:33:07.260
all the vote that went to other candidates who dropped out of the race,

1536
00:33:07.469 --> 00:33:09.420
all that came up and wound up going

1537
00:33:09.719 --> 00:33:10.479
to Crowley,

1538
00:33:10.680 --> 00:33:10.800
uh,

1539
00:33:10.880 --> 00:33:11.349
and that is,

1540
00:33:11.400 --> 00:33:11.760
uh,

1541
00:33:11.770 --> 00:33:12.180
true.

1542
00:33:12.680 --> 00:33:14.479
There were a lot of those people who didn't know.

1543
00:33:14.680 --> 00:33:18.060
About a third of voters said they were undecided going into election day.

1544
00:33:18.800 --> 00:33:20.660
So there was a big question as to what would happen

1545
00:33:20.800 --> 00:33:20.959
with,

1546
00:33:21.040 --> 00:33:22.069
with all of these people,

1547
00:33:22.319 --> 00:33:22.640
and there's,

1548
00:33:22.719 --> 00:33:22.949
I think,

1549
00:33:23.000 --> 00:33:25.000
reason to believe we even talked about it at the time.

1550
00:33:25.310 --> 00:33:25.949
That

1551
00:33:26.109 --> 00:33:26.930
the people who

1552
00:33:27.310 --> 00:33:28.189
haven't decided on,

1553
00:33:28.260 --> 00:33:29.770
on Hong yet,

1554
00:33:30.229 --> 00:33:30.339
like,

1555
00:33:30.349 --> 00:33:31.069
why aren't you there?

1556
00:33:31.270 --> 00:33:33.510
She's this crazy nutjob socialist,

1557
00:33:33.540 --> 00:33:34.750
and if you want that,

1558
00:33:34.869 --> 00:33:35.310
it's there.

1559
00:33:35.339 --> 00:33:36.030
And if you don't want it,

1560
00:33:36.189 --> 00:33:37.630
you're gonna go any other direction you can.

1561
00:33:38.140 --> 00:33:38.270
Uh,

1562
00:33:38.339 --> 00:33:39.150
so that is,

1563
00:33:39.229 --> 00:33:39.459
uh,

1564
00:33:39.630 --> 00:33:40.760
we probably should have seen that coming.

1565
00:33:40.829 --> 00:33:42.310
I just thought there was more enough cushion,

1566
00:33:42.349 --> 00:33:42.920
honestly,

1567
00:33:43.109 --> 00:33:43.630
for that,

1568
00:33:43.670 --> 00:33:44.449
to not be the case.

1569
00:33:44.709 --> 00:33:47.130
She wound up losing by only 3 or 4000 votes.

1570
00:33:47.459 --> 00:33:48.050
Um,

1571
00:33:48.510 --> 00:33:50.130
Hong did get a bunch of negative,

1572
00:33:50.510 --> 00:33:50.819
uh,

1573
00:33:50.949 --> 00:33:52.479
press late in the race.

1574
00:33:53.290 --> 00:33:54.010
And this is because,

1575
00:33:54.130 --> 00:33:54.250
you know,

1576
00:33:54.329 --> 00:33:54.449
look,

1577
00:33:54.530 --> 00:33:57.290
the Democratic machine aligned with the media on this

1578
00:33:57.290 --> 00:34:00.430
in not wanting Hong to win because Hong was vulnerable

1579
00:34:00.760 --> 00:34:01.910
in the general election

1580
00:34:02.130 --> 00:34:03.949
in ways that it does not seem,

1581
00:34:04.219 --> 00:34:04.699
um,

1582
00:34:04.709 --> 00:34:05.000
that,

1583
00:34:05.010 --> 00:34:05.239
uh,

1584
00:34:05.250 --> 00:34:06.199
Crowley will be.

1585
00:34:06.489 --> 00:34:08.489
Crowley another one if you're looking for an opportunity.

1586
00:34:08.649 --> 00:34:10.708
I get nervous with anything in Wisconsin right now

1587
00:34:10.969 --> 00:34:12.649
because the polls are always terrible there.

1588
00:34:12.708 --> 00:34:15.438
It's been terrible for multiple presidential cycles in a row.

1589
00:34:15.889 --> 00:34:16.030
Uh,

1590
00:34:16.090 --> 00:34:16.629
it's been,

1591
00:34:16.879 --> 00:34:18.090
the polls just don't seem to work.

1592
00:34:18.159 --> 00:34:18.290
People,

1593
00:34:18.370 --> 00:34:19.918
I don't know if everyone's lying in Wisconsin.

1594
00:34:20.000 --> 00:34:20.750
You're all liars.

1595
00:34:21.090 --> 00:34:22.270
You're all too cold

1596
00:34:22.610 --> 00:34:23.250
and you're thinking to yourself,

1597
00:34:23.330 --> 00:34:25.208
I'm gonna screw with this person on the phone when I take a poll.

1598
00:34:25.250 --> 00:34:26.790
I think something like that's happening.

1599
00:34:27.129 --> 00:34:27.409
Uh,

1600
00:34:27.540 --> 00:34:27.810
Moore,

1601
00:34:27.889 --> 00:34:28.129
uh,

1602
00:34:28.250 --> 00:34:29.228
is the late

1603
00:34:29.360 --> 00:34:30.350
gubernatorial,

1604
00:34:30.409 --> 00:34:30.989
uh,

1605
00:34:31.070 --> 00:34:31.909
uh,

1606
00:34:31.938 --> 00:34:32.810
uh,

1607
00:34:33.110 --> 00:34:33.649
uh,

1608
00:34:34.050 --> 00:34:34.649
endorsement,

1609
00:34:34.810 --> 00:34:35.208
excuse me,

1610
00:34:35.290 --> 00:34:35.478
of,

1611
00:34:35.530 --> 00:34:35.810
uh,

1612
00:34:35.929 --> 00:34:36.239
of,

1613
00:34:36.330 --> 00:34:36.719
uh,

1614
00:34:36.850 --> 00:34:37.159
Crowley.

1615
00:34:37.168 --> 00:34:38.010
I have all these names in my head.

1616
00:34:38.050 --> 00:34:38.550
I'm sorry.

1617
00:34:38.810 --> 00:34:39.090
Uh,

1618
00:34:39.208 --> 00:34:41.478
Evers is the guy who was the governor there.

1619
00:34:41.570 --> 00:34:42.360
He came in late.

1620
00:34:42.489 --> 00:34:43.030
Remember,

1621
00:34:43.530 --> 00:34:45.310
Crowley dropped out of the race.

1622
00:34:45.560 --> 00:34:46.429
He was done.

1623
00:34:46.728 --> 00:34:49.929
There was another quote-unquote moderate candidate that was supposed to take the,

1624
00:34:49.978 --> 00:34:50.129
uh,

1625
00:34:50.208 --> 00:34:50.870
the torch.

1626
00:34:51.330 --> 00:34:51.810
Uh,

1627
00:34:51.938 --> 00:34:52.978
then she had problems,

1628
00:34:53.100 --> 00:34:53.969
she had to drop out.

1629
00:34:54.219 --> 00:34:55.290
Then the governor said,

1630
00:34:55.370 --> 00:34:55.458
well,

1631
00:34:55.540 --> 00:34:55.699
we're gonna,

1632
00:34:55.780 --> 00:34:56.659
I'm gonna endorse that guy,

1633
00:34:56.739 --> 00:34:57.540
the guy that dropped out,

1634
00:34:57.620 --> 00:34:58.879
he came back in the race.

1635
00:34:59.679 --> 00:35:03.610
And Evers has an 85% approval rating among Democrats in the state.

1636
00:35:03.770 --> 00:35:05.750
So that seemed to move a lot of people.

1637
00:35:06.250 --> 00:35:06.689
Uh,

1638
00:35:07.050 --> 00:35:08.790
this one is very repeatable.

1639
00:35:09.909 --> 00:35:09.929
You know,

1640
00:35:10.010 --> 00:35:11.600
it's hard to get a candidate that drops out of the race,

1641
00:35:11.689 --> 00:35:12.129
comes back in,

1642
00:35:12.199 --> 00:35:13.129
gets endorsed by the,

1643
00:35:13.250 --> 00:35:13.929
the sitting governor.

1644
00:35:13.969 --> 00:35:14.989
That's not a normal occurrence.

1645
00:35:15.169 --> 00:35:16.709
A normal occurrence is this though.

1646
00:35:17.129 --> 00:35:19.219
If your if your campaign is running around saying,

1647
00:35:19.360 --> 00:35:19.570
yeah,

1648
00:35:19.689 --> 00:35:21.030
we're down by a lot of,

1649
00:35:21.090 --> 00:35:21.350
uh,

1650
00:35:21.370 --> 00:35:21.649
points,

1651
00:35:21.729 --> 00:35:23.689
but young voters have a lot of passion,

1652
00:35:23.770 --> 00:35:25.070
they're gonna show up in the polls,

1653
00:35:25.489 --> 00:35:26.750
almost never occurs.

1654
00:35:27.340 --> 00:35:29.479
Young voters don't like going to the polls.

1655
00:35:29.780 --> 00:35:31.969
Do you remember your life when you were 22 years old?

1656
00:35:32.300 --> 00:35:33.620
Did you want to go to the polls?

1657
00:35:33.899 --> 00:35:35.679
Did you want to spend a day

1658
00:35:35.939 --> 00:35:38.899
hanging out in a line with a bunch of sweaty people waiting,

1659
00:35:38.979 --> 00:35:39.459
uh,

1660
00:35:39.739 --> 00:35:40.620
in a long line to,

1661
00:35:40.739 --> 00:35:41.250
to vote?

1662
00:35:41.540 --> 00:35:42.179
Probably not.

1663
00:35:42.379 --> 00:35:42.689
You probably

1664
00:35:42.935 --> 00:35:43.455
figured out,

1665
00:35:43.614 --> 00:35:44.695
you know what I should do instead?

1666
00:35:44.774 --> 00:35:45.435
Watch TV.

1667
00:35:45.814 --> 00:35:46.695
You know what I should do instead,

1668
00:35:46.854 --> 00:35:47.564
play video games.

1669
00:35:47.614 --> 00:35:48.375
You know what I should do instead?

1670
00:35:48.455 --> 00:35:50.915
Get on social media and scroll mindlessly through TikTok.

1671
00:35:51.455 --> 00:35:52.774
So many people wound up doing that,

1672
00:35:52.935 --> 00:35:54.044
and the younger people that were,

1673
00:35:54.054 --> 00:35:54.445
of course,

1674
00:35:54.455 --> 00:35:54.955
promised,

1675
00:35:55.165 --> 00:35:55.455
uh,

1676
00:35:55.614 --> 00:35:56.135
didn't show up.

1677
00:35:56.215 --> 00:35:56.854
That's common.

1678
00:35:56.895 --> 00:35:58.175
It happens almost all the time.

1679
00:35:58.455 --> 00:35:58.574
I,

1680
00:35:58.635 --> 00:36:01.955
I always love going against the young vote because the young vote never shows up.

1681
00:36:02.054 --> 00:36:02.254
I mean,

1682
00:36:02.334 --> 00:36:02.814
not never,

1683
00:36:02.854 --> 00:36:04.125
but most of the time they don't,

1684
00:36:04.175 --> 00:36:04.834
they didn't hear,

1685
00:36:05.225 --> 00:36:05.375
uh,

1686
00:36:05.495 --> 00:36:06.655
so they undersold there.

1687
00:36:06.695 --> 00:36:07.034
And then.

1688
00:36:07.459 --> 00:36:07.840
Uh,

1689
00:36:07.939 --> 00:36:10.820
there's also the idea that Hong supporters may have been more passionate,

1690
00:36:10.939 --> 00:36:13.050
therefore more likely to participate in polls.

1691
00:36:13.100 --> 00:36:14.000
I think there's something

1692
00:36:14.199 --> 00:36:14.689
to that,

1693
00:36:14.899 --> 00:36:15.679
and frankly,

1694
00:36:15.979 --> 00:36:18.840
there is some evidence that Republicans and independents

1695
00:36:19.179 --> 00:36:21.520
who could have voted in Democratic primaries

1696
00:36:21.979 --> 00:36:24.199
may have looked at Hong as a legitimate

1697
00:36:24.459 --> 00:36:24.879
threat,

1698
00:36:25.260 --> 00:36:25.449
uh,

1699
00:36:25.620 --> 00:36:27.879
something really bad for their state and decided instead of

1700
00:36:27.879 --> 00:36:31.260
voting in the Republican primary that was basically decided.

1701
00:36:31.989 --> 00:36:32.989
They decided to go

1702
00:36:33.270 --> 00:36:33.780
the old uh,

1703
00:36:33.790 --> 00:36:35.219
Rush Limbaugh Operation chaos,

1704
00:36:35.229 --> 00:36:36.989
if you remember that from 2016,

1705
00:36:37.270 --> 00:36:37.909
crossed the line,

1706
00:36:38.070 --> 00:36:38.739
vote against,

1707
00:36:38.750 --> 00:36:39.020
uh,

1708
00:36:39.030 --> 00:36:39.280
the,

1709
00:36:39.290 --> 00:36:39.979
uh,

1710
00:36:39.989 --> 00:36:40.429
Republican,

1711
00:36:40.790 --> 00:36:41.360
uh,

1712
00:36:41.370 --> 00:36:41.739
against the,

1713
00:36:41.750 --> 00:36:41.939
uh,

1714
00:36:41.949 --> 00:36:42.610
socialist,

1715
00:36:42.629 --> 00:36:42.939
and,

1716
00:36:42.949 --> 00:36:43.219
uh,

1717
00:36:43.229 --> 00:36:44.189
go with Crowley.

1718
00:36:44.280 --> 00:36:45.969
Now that's interesting because,

1719
00:36:46.469 --> 00:36:46.989
frankly,

1720
00:36:47.060 --> 00:36:49.070
the more likely way to get a Republican into

1721
00:36:49.070 --> 00:36:50.889
office was to have Hong win that election.

1722
00:36:51.229 --> 00:36:51.389
Uh,

1723
00:36:51.469 --> 00:36:53.419
so if that actually wound up happening,

1724
00:36:53.709 --> 00:36:58.409
you may have erased some of the absolute worst case scenarios with Hong

1725
00:36:58.610 --> 00:37:00.959
being so far to the left.

1726
00:37:01.419 --> 00:37:01.800
Uh,

1727
00:37:01.939 --> 00:37:02.739
she won't be in office,

1728
00:37:02.820 --> 00:37:04.739
so maybe you could take some solace in that,

1729
00:37:05.100 --> 00:37:05.399
but

1730
00:37:05.659 --> 00:37:08.320
now it's more likely a Democrat is going to win that election

1731
00:37:08.659 --> 00:37:09.580
than the other way around.

1732
00:37:09.699 --> 00:37:11.060
So that's kind of how that,

1733
00:37:11.219 --> 00:37:14.760
that's all the excuses being tossed around basically that I've heard in

1734
00:37:14.919 --> 00:37:16.439
polling nerd circles

1735
00:37:16.620 --> 00:37:18.239
summarized in the New York Times.

1736
00:37:18.739 --> 00:37:19.939
Some of those are legitimate reasons,

1737
00:37:20.060 --> 00:37:21.800
some of those things you really can learn from.

1738
00:37:22.020 --> 00:37:23.459
I think some of those are just the fact that,

1739
00:37:23.580 --> 00:37:23.850
and I,

1740
00:37:23.909 --> 00:37:24.300
you know.

1741
00:37:25.800 --> 00:37:27.189
I have my opinions on these things,

1742
00:37:27.439 --> 00:37:27.879
but

1743
00:37:28.199 --> 00:37:28.760
frankly,

1744
00:37:29.040 --> 00:37:31.179
Francesca Hong was uniquely weird.

1745
00:37:32.179 --> 00:37:32.379
You know,

1746
00:37:32.500 --> 00:37:32.610
the,

1747
00:37:32.719 --> 00:37:32.760
the,

1748
00:37:32.860 --> 00:37:32.939
the,

1749
00:37:33.000 --> 00:37:33.139
the,

1750
00:37:33.300 --> 00:37:33.409
the,

1751
00:37:33.459 --> 00:37:34.520
the truth of the matter is

1752
00:37:34.699 --> 00:37:39.000
Francesca Hong was so far out there going against things like Thanksgiving,

1753
00:37:39.500 --> 00:37:40.159
you know,

1754
00:37:40.699 --> 00:37:40.850
I mean,

1755
00:37:41.040 --> 00:37:42.399
that you just don't get that a lot.

1756
00:37:42.780 --> 00:37:43.209
The same thing,

1757
00:37:43.260 --> 00:37:43.379
you know,

1758
00:37:43.489 --> 00:37:44.219
El Syed,

1759
00:37:44.500 --> 00:37:46.399
while he has lots of crazy beliefs,

1760
00:37:46.780 --> 00:37:47.050
uh,

1761
00:37:47.179 --> 00:37:48.080
wasn't at least

1762
00:37:48.419 --> 00:37:51.320
publicly talking about wanting to end major holidays,

1763
00:37:51.379 --> 00:37:52.120
as far as I know.

1764
00:37:52.820 --> 00:37:53.780
So that is,

1765
00:37:53.860 --> 00:37:56.040
he was able to survive where maybe Hong wasn't.

1766
00:37:56.139 --> 00:37:56.340
Uh,

1767
00:37:56.459 --> 00:37:58.350
so that's basically where we are on that,

1768
00:37:58.500 --> 00:37:58.919
on polling.

1769
00:37:58.939 --> 00:38:00.340
I wanna show you a couple of other races

1770
00:38:00.340 --> 00:38:01.879
though before we talked a lot of politics today.

1771
00:38:01.979 --> 00:38:04.139
Let me give you a couple of other things that I think are interesting.

1772
00:38:04.510 --> 00:38:06.169
I've got a couple of markets I really like.

1773
00:38:06.429 --> 00:38:08.689
I wanna tell you about here in just a second.

1774
00:38:08.870 --> 00:38:09.500
Also wanna remind you,

1775
00:38:09.550 --> 00:38:10.610
PredictableShow.com.

1776
00:38:10.750 --> 00:38:11.149
Go there,

1777
00:38:11.429 --> 00:38:11.979
subscribe,

1778
00:38:11.989 --> 00:38:14.379
and become a premium member if you happen to be a trader.

1779
00:38:14.429 --> 00:38:15.030
I think you'll really,

1780
00:38:15.129 --> 00:38:16.649
really get your money's worth out of that.

1781
00:38:16.860 --> 00:38:18.110
We had a lot of people showing up.

1782
00:38:18.189 --> 00:38:18.729
We're in the top,

1783
00:38:18.760 --> 00:38:22.340
like I think 15 on all of Substack in the new uh pages for,

1784
00:38:22.350 --> 00:38:22.739
uh,

1785
00:38:22.750 --> 00:38:23.020
for,

1786
00:38:23.030 --> 00:38:23.340
uh,

1787
00:38:23.350 --> 00:38:24.250
subscriber growth,

1788
00:38:24.709 --> 00:38:25.090
uh,

1789
00:38:25.110 --> 00:38:26.070
because I think we're,

1790
00:38:26.139 --> 00:38:28.469
we're doing a good job delivering value on that subscription.

1791
00:38:28.919 --> 00:38:30.060
It's worth your time.

1792
00:38:30.439 --> 00:38:30.800
Join us.

1793
00:38:30.879 --> 00:38:32.360
We're gonna try to do everything we can

1794
00:38:32.560 --> 00:38:35.659
to make sure your election season is highly profitable.

1795
00:38:35.760 --> 00:38:37.879
I know a lot of people in the chat have already talked

1796
00:38:37.879 --> 00:38:40.939
about how they've already paid for their subscription easily for the entire year

1797
00:38:41.239 --> 00:38:43.479
because of what we've been talking about at PredictableShow.com.

1798
00:38:43.570 --> 00:38:43.860
So,

1799
00:38:44.040 --> 00:38:44.979
if you're interested

1800
00:38:45.199 --> 00:38:46.219
in these markets,

1801
00:38:46.679 --> 00:38:47.939
there's not a better place to hang out.

1802
00:38:48.120 --> 00:38:48.919
Come hang out with us.

1803
00:38:49.080 --> 00:38:51.120
Some of the top traders in the world are in the chat,

1804
00:38:51.199 --> 00:38:51.389
uh,

1805
00:38:51.439 --> 00:38:52.989
talking just randomly back and forth,

1806
00:38:53.199 --> 00:38:53.909
watching the chat,

1807
00:38:54.149 --> 00:38:54.919
getting ideas.

1808
00:38:55.040 --> 00:38:56.139
You can get some good ideas there

1809
00:38:56.360 --> 00:38:56.679
as well.

1810
00:38:56.750 --> 00:38:57.639
PredictableShow.com,

1811
00:38:57.719 --> 00:38:58.399
back in a second.

1812
00:39:11.080 --> 00:39:13.540
It's time for another episode of Here's what I kind of like.

1813
00:39:13.790 --> 00:39:16.919
And this happens when I'm like just scrolling through markets and I see one,

1814
00:39:17.320 --> 00:39:18.790
it kind of seems interesting.

1815
00:39:19.159 --> 00:39:21.669
Doesn't mean I've done 9 hours of research on it,

1816
00:39:21.719 --> 00:39:21.959
all right?

1817
00:39:22.050 --> 00:39:22.560
This is just,

1818
00:39:22.659 --> 00:39:23.600
this is what I kind of like.

1819
00:39:23.629 --> 00:39:23.770
It's,

1820
00:39:23.830 --> 00:39:25.520
it's piqued my interest a little bit.

1821
00:39:25.840 --> 00:39:26.760
And I've taken a little,

1822
00:39:26.840 --> 00:39:29.340
maybe a marker position or a small position on it.

1823
00:39:29.760 --> 00:39:32.060
And I'm kind of interested to see maybe if there's more there.

1824
00:39:32.169 --> 00:39:32.439
OK?

1825
00:39:32.550 --> 00:39:33.199
Let me give you this one.

1826
00:39:33.479 --> 00:39:35.879
who will be Trump's next press secretary?

1827
00:39:36.399 --> 00:39:36.620
Uh,

1828
00:39:36.719 --> 00:39:38.020
this market is out there right now.

1829
00:39:38.080 --> 00:39:38.239
And,

1830
00:39:38.360 --> 00:39:38.879
and look,

1831
00:39:39.159 --> 00:39:39.520
look.

1832
00:39:40.260 --> 00:39:41.239
There's a bunch of names here,

1833
00:39:41.620 --> 00:39:44.840
some of which I think have basically no chance whatsoever.

1834
00:39:45.260 --> 00:39:45.649
Uh,

1835
00:39:45.739 --> 00:39:47.600
but one of the favorites caught my eye.

1836
00:39:47.820 --> 00:39:50.689
There's a little bit of profit to be made here and I kind of like it.

1837
00:39:51.260 --> 00:39:52.979
Scott Jennings is in 3rd,

1838
00:39:53.060 --> 00:39:53.250
and,

1839
00:39:53.370 --> 00:39:54.840
and let's scroll down to Scott,

1840
00:39:54.939 --> 00:39:55.939
Scott's chart if we have it.

1841
00:39:56.110 --> 00:39:56.340
Uh,

1842
00:39:56.419 --> 00:39:57.979
it's not much to do on the,

1843
00:39:58.060 --> 00:39:58.939
on the chart per se.

1844
00:39:58.979 --> 00:40:00.790
It's hanging around 17%.

1845
00:40:01.100 --> 00:40:03.000
I like the no position here a little bit.

1846
00:40:03.439 --> 00:40:03.449
Because,

1847
00:40:04.040 --> 00:40:04.159
uh,

1848
00:40:04.360 --> 00:40:06.149
Scott's got a pretty good life right now.

1849
00:40:06.280 --> 00:40:06.840
He's got a big,

1850
00:40:06.919 --> 00:40:07.090
uh,

1851
00:40:07.120 --> 00:40:07.699
podcast,

1852
00:40:07.840 --> 00:40:08.350
he's on,

1853
00:40:08.389 --> 00:40:08.510
you know,

1854
00:40:08.560 --> 00:40:09.110
he's on TV,

1855
00:40:09.159 --> 00:40:10.340
he makes lots of money.

1856
00:40:10.840 --> 00:40:13.350
I don't know why he'd want to ruin his life

1857
00:40:13.639 --> 00:40:14.739
to go in to be

1858
00:40:15.239 --> 00:40:16.479
Trump's next press secretary,

1859
00:40:16.560 --> 00:40:19.500
which is the most thankless job in the entire universe,

1860
00:40:19.850 --> 00:40:20.070
uh,

1861
00:40:20.159 --> 00:40:23.280
and really only presents downside for you.

1862
00:40:23.719 --> 00:40:23.879
Uh,

1863
00:40:23.949 --> 00:40:26.399
as a person who already has success in their career.

1864
00:40:26.510 --> 00:40:26.590
Now,

1865
00:40:26.639 --> 00:40:28.580
if you can look at some of the other names on this list,

1866
00:40:28.919 --> 00:40:30.639
most of them are not particularly famous.

1867
00:40:30.879 --> 00:40:32.159
Most of them seem to be

1868
00:40:32.360 --> 00:40:33.530
of a certain profile.

1869
00:40:33.850 --> 00:40:34.120
Uh,

1870
00:40:34.189 --> 00:40:34.489
you might,

1871
00:40:34.639 --> 00:40:35.120
uh,

1872
00:40:35.270 --> 00:40:35.850
interestingly see,

1873
00:40:35.879 --> 00:40:36.300
uh,

1874
00:40:37.399 --> 00:40:40.080
somewhat attractive younger ladies,

1875
00:40:40.280 --> 00:40:41.159
I would say is the,

1876
00:40:41.280 --> 00:40:41.790
maybe the,

1877
00:40:41.800 --> 00:40:42.300
uh,

1878
00:40:42.959 --> 00:40:43.669
particular profile,

1879
00:40:43.679 --> 00:40:43.790
as,

1880
00:40:43.909 --> 00:40:44.320
as you'd see,

1881
00:40:44.360 --> 00:40:46.360
that's something that Trump has seemed to like with his last,

1882
00:40:46.370 --> 00:40:46.379
uh,

1883
00:40:46.399 --> 00:40:47.110
couple of picks.

1884
00:40:47.560 --> 00:40:48.090
Um,

1885
00:40:48.239 --> 00:40:49.479
so that is there.

1886
00:40:49.560 --> 00:40:49.800
Again,

1887
00:40:49.919 --> 00:40:50.899
like some of these names

1888
00:40:51.159 --> 00:40:51.439
down here,

1889
00:40:51.520 --> 00:40:51.560
yeah,

1890
00:40:51.639 --> 00:40:52.669
I think you could find a lot of nos.

1891
00:40:52.719 --> 00:40:54.520
Like I don't think there's any chance Erica

1892
00:40:54.520 --> 00:40:56.699
Kirk is going to be the next spokesperson.

1893
00:40:57.040 --> 00:40:57.300
Uh,

1894
00:40:57.639 --> 00:41:00.360
I would say there's almost no chance Laura Loomer would take the gig,

1895
00:41:00.439 --> 00:41:02.139
but I don't think there's any chance she gets offered it.

1896
00:41:02.389 --> 00:41:02.679
Uh,

1897
00:41:02.800 --> 00:41:03.179
you have,

1898
00:41:03.239 --> 00:41:03.360
uh,

1899
00:41:03.429 --> 00:41:04.199
a bunch of names down here.

1900
00:41:04.270 --> 00:41:05.260
Spencer Pratt would be fun,

1901
00:41:05.320 --> 00:41:06.459
but I don't think that's happening.

1902
00:41:06.850 --> 00:41:07.020
Uh,

1903
00:41:07.100 --> 00:41:07.620
but these are all,

1904
00:41:07.820 --> 00:41:08.850
Jason Miller is a great one.

1905
00:41:08.929 --> 00:41:09.100
Like there,

1906
00:41:09.219 --> 00:41:11.139
there's no chance Jason Miller is gonna be the spokesperson.

1907
00:41:11.219 --> 00:41:13.719
Like he's got a huge policy job.

1908
00:41:14.020 --> 00:41:14.300
But again,

1909
00:41:14.379 --> 00:41:16.899
you're only getting 0.3% on that position.

1910
00:41:17.219 --> 00:41:17.850
Tucker Carlson,

1911
00:41:17.979 --> 00:41:18.139
again,

1912
00:41:18.379 --> 00:41:19.560
certainly no chance of that,

1913
00:41:19.820 --> 00:41:19.939
uh,

1914
00:41:20.020 --> 00:41:22.340
99.9%. So you're not getting any profit there.

1915
00:41:22.379 --> 00:41:23.340
But you go back up to,

1916
00:41:23.419 --> 00:41:23.810
uh,

1917
00:41:24.100 --> 00:41:24.520
Scott,

1918
00:41:24.699 --> 00:41:24.979
uh,

1919
00:41:25.300 --> 00:41:25.659
Jennings.

1920
00:41:25.739 --> 00:41:25.889
I mean,

1921
00:41:25.939 --> 00:41:26.580
you really do,

1922
00:41:26.659 --> 00:41:27.219
he'd be a good,

1923
00:41:27.330 --> 00:41:27.530
he'd do,

1924
00:41:27.649 --> 00:41:28.580
he'd do this job very well,

1925
00:41:28.699 --> 00:41:29.020
I think.

1926
00:41:29.610 --> 00:41:31.080
But you're at 15%,

1927
00:41:31.239 --> 00:41:32.969
and you get some profit you can take there.

1928
00:41:33.330 --> 00:41:35.709
So that's one I kinda like,

1929
00:41:35.750 --> 00:41:36.949
uh,

1930
00:41:36.969 --> 00:41:37.840
for that particular role.

1931
00:41:37.919 --> 00:41:38.850
Let me give you one more though.

1932
00:41:38.929 --> 00:41:39.439
I always say,

1933
00:41:39.469 --> 00:41:40.370
here's one I kinda like,

1934
00:41:40.439 --> 00:41:41.270
but there's always a few.

1935
00:41:41.669 --> 00:41:42.100
Uh,

1936
00:41:42.159 --> 00:41:42.169
uh,

1937
00:41:42.209 --> 00:41:43.050
let me give you one more.

1938
00:41:43.290 --> 00:41:43.530
This one,

1939
00:41:43.580 --> 00:41:43.820
by the way,

1940
00:41:43.899 --> 00:41:44.760
comes from one of our,

1941
00:41:44.780 --> 00:41:45.040
uh,

1942
00:41:45.179 --> 00:41:47.459
predictableShow.com premium subscribers.

1943
00:41:47.820 --> 00:41:48.979
Christian writes this comment,

1944
00:41:49.060 --> 00:41:49.459
I didn't know,

1945
00:41:49.540 --> 00:41:50.530
I hadn't seen this one yet.

1946
00:41:50.699 --> 00:41:53.989
I just noticed that there's a market for Pedro Pascal to be nominated

1947
00:41:54.159 --> 00:41:55.439
for Best Actor

1948
00:41:55.739 --> 00:41:57.300
for Mandalorian and Grogu.

1949
00:41:57.820 --> 00:41:59.689
No is in the mid-60s.

1950
00:42:00.060 --> 00:42:02.360
This is about the closest thing to a sure

1951
00:42:02.360 --> 00:42:04.540
thing as I've ever seen convince me I'm wrong.

1952
00:42:04.610 --> 00:42:05.020
Here's the thing,

1953
00:42:05.139 --> 00:42:05.570
Christian,

1954
00:42:05.770 --> 00:42:07.540
I am not going to convince you that you're wrong on that.

1955
00:42:08.360 --> 00:42:09.540
I think it's a great pickup.

1956
00:42:10.739 --> 00:42:11.320
Have you seen,

1957
00:42:12.100 --> 00:42:13.659
have you ever watched the Mandalorian?

1958
00:42:14.439 --> 00:42:14.729
What is it,

1959
00:42:14.810 --> 00:42:16.850
what does Pedro Pascal even do in this job?

1960
00:42:16.909 --> 00:42:18.560
He just stands there in a mask.

1961
00:42:18.929 --> 00:42:20.929
It's like giving a Best Actor to the guy

1962
00:42:20.929 --> 00:42:23.050
who plays Michael Myers in the Halloween movies.

1963
00:42:23.129 --> 00:42:24.129
He doesn't do anything.

1964
00:42:25.139 --> 00:42:25.340
I mean,

1965
00:42:25.459 --> 00:42:25.600
sure,

1966
00:42:25.659 --> 00:42:27.340
he's involved in the action sequences,

1967
00:42:27.419 --> 00:42:30.959
but are we even sure he shows up to the days where they're shooting the movie?

1968
00:42:31.530 --> 00:42:32.439
And frankly,

1969
00:42:32.739 --> 00:42:34.520
even voicing the character,

1970
00:42:34.860 --> 00:42:38.820
one of the characteristics of voicing the character is to be completely monotone.

1971
00:42:39.219 --> 00:42:39.459
So he,

1972
00:42:39.540 --> 00:42:41.229
the guy's behind a mask

1973
00:42:41.540 --> 00:42:43.620
and he's just talking with no voice inflection.

1974
00:42:43.699 --> 00:42:44.899
They're gonna give him Best Picture,

1975
00:42:45.010 --> 00:42:45.280
uh,

1976
00:42:45.290 --> 00:42:46.959
best actor nomination.

1977
00:42:47.500 --> 00:42:47.699
Now,

1978
00:42:47.820 --> 00:42:48.260
he's very,

1979
00:42:48.340 --> 00:42:48.600
very,

1980
00:42:48.699 --> 00:42:48.860
uh,

1981
00:42:48.979 --> 00:42:49.570
left-ish.

1982
00:42:49.899 --> 00:42:50.219
Uh,

1983
00:42:50.290 --> 00:42:51.360
he's way out there.

1984
00:42:51.780 --> 00:42:53.179
So anybody in that category,

1985
00:42:53.260 --> 00:42:54.820
there's always some chance they get a

1986
00:42:54.820 --> 00:42:57.159
nomination just for having the right politics.

1987
00:42:57.500 --> 00:42:58.750
But come on,

1988
00:42:59.540 --> 00:43:01.199
anybody on earth could have played that role.

1989
00:43:02.830 --> 00:43:02.909
Well,

1990
00:43:03.030 --> 00:43:04.169
show me the market on this.

1991
00:43:04.469 --> 00:43:05.489
It doesn't make any sense.

1992
00:43:05.989 --> 00:43:07.080
Pedro Pascal,

1993
00:43:07.429 --> 00:43:07.870
uh,

1994
00:43:07.989 --> 00:43:08.909
and you see some of these other guys,

1995
00:43:09.060 --> 00:43:09.889
Malkovich is there,

1996
00:43:10.050 --> 00:43:10.590
Pattinson,

1997
00:43:10.709 --> 00:43:11.310
Ryan Gosling,

1998
00:43:11.350 --> 00:43:12.550
I think all decent bets,

1999
00:43:12.629 --> 00:43:12.830
uh,

2000
00:43:12.989 --> 00:43:13.110
to,

2001
00:43:13.229 --> 00:43:13.429
to,

2002
00:43:13.489 --> 00:43:13.750
uh,

2003
00:43:13.870 --> 00:43:15.689
to get a particular nomination.

2004
00:43:15.870 --> 00:43:16.469
Pedro Pascal,

2005
00:43:16.550 --> 00:43:16.949
you could still,

2006
00:43:17.139 --> 00:43:17.270
uh,

2007
00:43:17.310 --> 00:43:19.010
no is 65%.

2008
00:43:19.290 --> 00:43:20.409
So you're talking about

2009
00:43:20.709 --> 00:43:24.179
35% profit on a 65% investment.

2010
00:43:24.469 --> 00:43:25.050
You're over,

2011
00:43:25.179 --> 00:43:25.459
uh,

2012
00:43:25.550 --> 00:43:27.149
50% profit

2013
00:43:27.610 --> 00:43:28.510
for Pedro Pascal.

2014
00:43:28.590 --> 00:43:28.790
When do,

2015
00:43:28.889 --> 00:43:30.270
when do the Oscar nominations come out?

2016
00:43:30.419 --> 00:43:31.229
Because that was late in the year,

2017
00:43:31.310 --> 00:43:31.669
right?

2018
00:43:32.189 --> 00:43:32.199
Then

2019
00:43:33.310 --> 00:43:34.429
or do we go early next year?

2020
00:43:34.489 --> 00:43:35.590
I guess it would be early next year because you

2021
00:43:35.590 --> 00:43:36.929
have to wait for all the movies to come out.

2022
00:43:37.429 --> 00:43:37.510
So,

2023
00:43:37.590 --> 00:43:37.780
uh,

2024
00:43:37.870 --> 00:43:38.540
early next year,

2025
00:43:38.669 --> 00:43:40.270
so we got a little bit of time on this one,

2026
00:43:40.350 --> 00:43:40.649
but

2027
00:43:40.750 --> 00:43:42.229
I also don't like Pedro Pascal.

2028
00:43:42.310 --> 00:43:44.060
I don't really care for the Mandalorian,

2029
00:43:44.189 --> 00:43:44.550
frankly,

2030
00:43:44.629 --> 00:43:45.770
as a Star Wars product.

2031
00:43:46.810 --> 00:43:47.729
I like Star Wars,

2032
00:43:47.850 --> 00:43:48.330
but they've,

2033
00:43:48.449 --> 00:43:48.729
they've,

2034
00:43:48.850 --> 00:43:49.530
they've shaken me,

2035
00:43:49.610 --> 00:43:50.570
I will say over the years,

2036
00:43:50.649 --> 00:43:50.959
frankly,

2037
00:43:51.129 --> 00:43:53.620
because of the Mandalorian and partially what they did with Gino Carana.

2038
00:43:53.969 --> 00:43:54.260
Carrano,

2039
00:43:54.280 --> 00:43:54.810
who's the best,

2040
00:43:54.969 --> 00:43:56.560
the best character in that actual show.

2041
00:43:57.330 --> 00:43:58.909
he does nothing as Mandalorian.

2042
00:43:59.330 --> 00:44:02.060
He sits here and talks to a puppet monotone behind a mask.

2043
00:44:05.080 --> 00:44:05.320
Again,

2044
00:44:05.399 --> 00:44:06.419
here's what I kinda like.

2045
00:44:06.639 --> 00:44:06.909
I don't know,

2046
00:44:07.120 --> 00:44:07.270
I,

2047
00:44:07.370 --> 00:44:09.830
maybe he's the biggest favorite in the world for this.

2048
00:44:09.959 --> 00:44:11.510
It just doesn't make any sense to me,

2049
00:44:11.719 --> 00:44:12.820
and I've taken a position

2050
00:44:13.280 --> 00:44:14.659
against him getting this nomination.

2051
00:44:15.310 --> 00:44:16.340
It's just a joke.

2052
00:44:17.169 --> 00:44:17.179
The,

2053
00:44:17.189 --> 00:44:18.120
and the movie bombed,

2054
00:44:18.229 --> 00:44:18.479
kinda,

2055
00:44:18.639 --> 00:44:19.919
kinda bombed for a Star Wars movie,

2056
00:44:19.959 --> 00:44:20.520
it bombed.

2057
00:44:21.290 --> 00:44:21.750
So

2058
00:44:22.780 --> 00:44:23.729
Those are the two that I kinda like.

2059
00:44:23.810 --> 00:44:24.060
By the way,

2060
00:44:24.139 --> 00:44:26.800
all of my predictions are up at predictableShow.com.

2061
00:44:27.060 --> 00:44:27.899
It's part of the premium tier.

2062
00:44:27.969 --> 00:44:28.860
Do we have that page there?

2063
00:44:28.979 --> 00:44:29.659
I said at the beginning,

2064
00:44:29.699 --> 00:44:29.949
I'm like,

2065
00:44:29.979 --> 00:44:30.100
hey,

2066
00:44:30.139 --> 00:44:30.580
we should do like an,

2067
00:44:30.659 --> 00:44:30.810
uh,

2068
00:44:30.889 --> 00:44:31.179
you know,

2069
00:44:31.300 --> 00:44:32.360
I use this as a euphemism.

2070
00:44:32.409 --> 00:44:33.889
I'm like an album release party,

2071
00:44:34.100 --> 00:44:34.209
right?

2072
00:44:34.219 --> 00:44:37.000
Where we like release the picks and we can talk about them as they come out

2073
00:44:37.209 --> 00:44:39.360
and everyone kind of gets access to them at the same time,

2074
00:44:39.620 --> 00:44:41.939
and they took this literally and made album covers for

2075
00:44:41.939 --> 00:44:43.540
every single time I do one of these releases.

2076
00:44:43.620 --> 00:44:44.060
So there's Stu P.

2077
00:44:44.070 --> 00:44:44.899
That's kind of like a,

2078
00:44:44.959 --> 00:44:45.179
I don't know,

2079
00:44:45.219 --> 00:44:45.449
what am I,

2080
00:44:45.510 --> 00:44:46.320
Jimmy Buffett there?

2081
00:44:47.129 --> 00:44:49.699
I look like uh the most interesting man in the world,

2082
00:44:50.169 --> 00:44:50.409
uh,

2083
00:44:50.419 --> 00:44:50.649
except,

2084
00:44:50.770 --> 00:44:50.889
you know,

2085
00:44:51.010 --> 00:44:53.689
you could tell it's AI cause I'm not the most interesting man in the world.

2086
00:44:53.770 --> 00:44:54.030
But,

2087
00:44:54.250 --> 00:44:54.709
uh,

2088
00:44:54.729 --> 00:44:55.080
it was,

2089
00:44:55.090 --> 00:44:55.469
uh,

2090
00:44:55.510 --> 00:44:57.919
you see here we have a little write-up that explains everything,

2091
00:44:57.929 --> 00:44:58.770
and then you kinda go down,

2092
00:44:58.850 --> 00:45:00.090
you can kinda see the beginning of this.

2093
00:45:00.199 --> 00:45:01.010
There's a little database.

2094
00:45:01.120 --> 00:45:02.429
All my pics are there for you.

2095
00:45:02.770 --> 00:45:02.889
Uh,

2096
00:45:02.929 --> 00:45:04.330
you can actually go up in the upper corner and

2097
00:45:04.330 --> 00:45:06.250
expand this to a sort of a full screen thing

2098
00:45:06.449 --> 00:45:07.560
and see all of them at once.

2099
00:45:07.649 --> 00:45:08.239
There you go.

2100
00:45:08.530 --> 00:45:08.689
Uh,

2101
00:45:08.810 --> 00:45:09.770
lots of pics that I have,

2102
00:45:09.889 --> 00:45:10.969
so you can go and check those out.

2103
00:45:11.050 --> 00:45:13.360
They're all at predictableShow.com for premium subscribers.

2104
00:45:13.409 --> 00:45:13.649
OK.

2105
00:45:14.020 --> 00:45:14.250
Uh,

2106
00:45:14.330 --> 00:45:15.370
we've gone too long today.

2107
00:45:15.580 --> 00:45:16.459
Thank you so much for joining us.

2108
00:45:16.659 --> 00:45:16.679
Uh,

2109
00:45:16.780 --> 00:45:17.300
lots of fun.

2110
00:45:17.510 --> 00:45:17.939
Tomorrow,

2111
00:45:18.020 --> 00:45:18.899
I should just let you know,

2112
00:45:18.979 --> 00:45:19.810
our normal show,

2113
00:45:19.919 --> 00:45:21.689
we'll probably do a little preview of some of the

2114
00:45:21.689 --> 00:45:24.179
other races in the primary states for Tuesday night,

2115
00:45:24.379 --> 00:45:25.520
and then we'll be on the air

2116
00:45:25.699 --> 00:45:27.459
Tuesday night as votes come out,

2117
00:45:27.659 --> 00:45:27.810
uh,

2118
00:45:27.850 --> 00:45:29.639
a long live stream available

2119
00:45:29.790 --> 00:45:31.320
basically everywhere you can find us,

2120
00:45:31.419 --> 00:45:31.530
uh,

2121
00:45:31.620 --> 00:45:33.389
youtube.com/atpredictableshw

2122
00:45:33.659 --> 00:45:34.139
at predictable.

2123
00:45:34.344 --> 00:45:36.034
Show on basically every social media.

2124
00:45:36.534 --> 00:45:37.114
Join us there.

2125
00:45:37.334 --> 00:45:38.455
Go to predictableShow.com.

2126
00:45:38.534 --> 00:45:41.975
We'll be streaming there and then we will have an exclusive subscriber chat

2127
00:45:42.215 --> 00:45:43.685
that goes along into the night as the,

2128
00:45:43.695 --> 00:45:44.155
uh,

2129
00:45:44.165 --> 00:45:44.415
the,

2130
00:45:44.534 --> 00:45:45.875
as long as the races are interesting,

2131
00:45:46.215 --> 00:45:46.274
we'll,

2132
00:45:46.375 --> 00:45:47.274
we'll stay on the air,

2133
00:45:47.574 --> 00:45:47.915
uh,

2134
00:45:47.925 --> 00:45:49.435
broadcasting and live streaming,

2135
00:45:49.645 --> 00:45:49.875
uh,

2136
00:45:49.885 --> 00:45:50.254
with you.

2137
00:45:50.375 --> 00:45:50.715
So

2138
00:45:50.935 --> 00:45:51.534
hang out with us,

2139
00:45:51.725 --> 00:45:52.885
Predictablehow.com.

2140
00:45:52.975 --> 00:45:53.774
Thanks so much for joining us.

2141
00:45:53.854 --> 00:45:54.455
We'll see you tomorrow.