A day like today only comes along once in a lifetime.
Yes,
we've made it through multiple dozens of episodes on this show.
Episode 50,
it's a round number.
We should celebrate and we will celebrate today,
our 50th episode of Predictable.
Thanks so much for joining us.
Uh,
we have a lot to go through.
The Florida primaries are tomorrow.
Some interesting opportunities there.
We have Alaska and Wyoming coming up tomorrow as well.
We'll preview that for you.
We have some information about what
At least how experts are saying the polls were such a disaster in Wisconsin,
which cost me money,
by the way,
I'm not happy about it.
And,
uh,
here's one I kind of like.
We have that segment we'd like to do for you,
where we can find these kind of random markets and say,
there might be an opportunity here.
We'll get to a couple of those today
as well.
As always,
join us on Predictable.
Show.com.
Great articles,
great
uh conversation going on there every single day.
We find so many different things that we're able to kind
of talk bat around with uh everybody who's a subscriber.
If you'd like to be a premium subscriber,
we'd love to have you there as well.
It's predictableshow.com.
Let's get today's show,
episode 50,
started right now.
I looked up at my screen
this weekend,
and what did I see on it?
NFL football.
Yes,
NFL football
on my screen.
It makes me feel warm inside every single year when this happens.
And it's just,
you know,
crappy preseason football.
I can say that because the Eagles lost,
so I have to justify it in some way.
Uh,
but like,
you know,
it's preseason football,
it's a bunch of third stringers,
it's still football,
and I love watching it.
And,
you know,
you think about it,
you're in the preseason.
You only got a few more weeks
until you're actually watching regular season football.
In fact,
today,
24 days away
from the NFL season,
you might say,
OK,
well,
what does that have to do with the elections or prediction markets?
What are you getting to here?
Well,
think about this for a second.
That first game,
24 days away,
you watch that first game,
you go into the weekend,
you get that first slate of games,
NFL Sunday Ticket kind of kicks off.
You're watching football all day long.
And then,
Before you can get to that following weekend.
Before that happens,
Early voting will begin.
We're only 32 days away from early voting
beginning
in the first states.
That's how close we are
to this election.
Seems insane.
32 days
until the first round of early voting begins.
78 days
until the midterm election
is here.
And we're getting results,
and we're up all night
with you at predictableShow.com,
ranting and raving.
My voice will be shot.
I probably will have lots of alcohol by the end of the night because I,
it's the only way I'm gonna get through it,
frankly.
Uh,
hopefully,
things go well.
Not always optimistic about such things,
but we're gonna hope that they go well.
I will say we're gonna get lots of opportunities,
and I think
have a very profitable evening.
That's an important thing,
and there's a reason why
it's important to know how far this is out and
how we should be thinking about the November elections.
We'll get into that here
in just a second.
Tomorrow,
however,
is one of our last like really big deal primaries.
Uh,
we,
we don't have that schedule around,
do we,
by any chance,
Adam?
I don't remember which,
uh,
which ones are coming up in the next few weeks,
but it's like,
we're,
we've gone away from the 5 and 6 primaries
per night type of thing on a Tuesday.
We are now looking at more like 1.
This,
uh,
tomorrow there'll be 3.
You have,
uh,
Alaska and Wyoming,
which there's only,
I think 5 races total
between the two,
and you have that really crazy system in,
in Alaska where.
The first round of voting,
which is the primary,
is a top 4.
So the top 4 from any party,
uh,
no matter what,
where the what party they're in,
they'll get into the final round,
which will be in November,
and then that will be ranked choice voting,
which will then mean like,
you know,
you're eliminating voters until someone gets to 50%.
It's a very confusing system.
Bottom line is.
You know,
there's some interesting stuff there.
Maybe we'll do a little bit on that on tomorrow's election in Wyoming and,
uh,
in,
in Alaska.
The big one is kind of Florida.
We've been on the Florida one for a while.
If you've been watching the show for a while,
you know they've,
I've had several positions.
Some of my biggest positions
are in the Florida elections.
4 things to watch during Tuesday's Florida primary comes from the Tampa Bay Times.
And,
you know,
they're talking a lot.
There's some interesting stuff on the,
uh,
Democratic side as well.
I want to focus on the Republican side though.
At least for today.
We'll get into more of this stuff
uh at predictableShow.com.
By the way,
uh,
if you are a premium member of PredictableShow.com,
you get all of my picks early.
Uh,
so you will get them.
I'm gonna start putting them on there this afternoon for tomorrow's elections.
Some of them you already know.
If you have,
if you're on PredictableShow.com as a premium member,
you have access to all my picks in advance.
So,
there's a database of over 200 of them,
positions that I currently hold in prediction markets that you
can kind of just go see whenever you want.
Um,
and then
as I grow,
as we get closer and closer to a primary election,
I'll
start adding a bunch of stuff,
and from there,
we will update that in our,
uh,
premium chat.
So,
you'll get a lot of the stuff here in the live streams and on the show,
but we'll also,
if you really want that detail,
if you're someone who's a traitor,
I do think it is well worth your money.
Uh,
if you want to be a premium subscriber,
especially if you're trading these things with any regularity,
there's a great community there.
There's lots of great features,
predictableShow.com.
OK,
let me show you,
uh,
first of all,
let me give you a story about this one.
And you may have heard me tell,
tell bits and pieces of the story,
but this is one,
this is a multi-year story,
frankly.
Uh,
Florida Republican Senate nominee,
this is what this market looks like,
uh,
right now.
And you see Ashley Moody at 98.4% chance to win.
Uh,
you know,
there's a bunch of other straggler candidates there,
but obviously,
she's the,
uh,
heavy,
heavy favorite.
She's the senator right now.
The reason why this is an important race for me personally
is,
uh,
I bought shares in this race
a long time ago.
Long time ago.
Why?
How did I do that?
Well,
basically by mistake,
because when Ashley Moody,
so,
if you remember,
uh,
this is when Marco Rubio
leaves his Senate seat
and,
uh,
and goes
to,
uh,
the Trump White House.
And he's Secretary of State,
big deal.
There's an open seat.
Rhonda Santos gets to pick who's in the seat,
and I'm watching the announcement unfurl in,
in front of live cameras,
and I can't remember exactly what the situation was.
I was,
I was definitely in the radio studio,
uh,
working with Glenn Beck at the time.
And,
uh,
and there's a bunch of candidates on there,
and,
uh,
I look up at the screen and I don't know if I'm seeing an,
an early feed or if we were off-camera.
I can't remember what I was seeing,
but I remember seeing her.
On one of the feeds and Ashley Moody's standing there.
I know she's one of the candidates,
uh,
the potential candidates,
but they hadn't announced it yet.
And she walks out there,
she's standing there.
I'm like,
well,
they're
either they're gonna really torture her with like
one of these reality show type things.
Maybe Donald Trump has implemented an
Apprentice style thing where they're like,
not you,
Ashley,
you're fired.
But I figured since she was there,
she probably won,
uh,
the pick.
And so I'm sitting there and I'm looking at these markets and they're at
like 98.
And I'm like,
well,
you know,
look,
it's a couple of percent,
but
frankly,
uh,
you know,
it was 95%,
96,
97,
98% in that range.
And I'm buying and I'm buying and I'm buying.
Uh,
yeah,
I think I even started lower,
maybe in the low 90s when I first saw her,
but
it got up to like 98% after she kind of came up.
She's making the speech and it's still stickening at 98.
I'm thinking to myself like,
look,
I
have made some profit on this when it was lower.
Uh,
well,
it's up to 98.
Uh,
I'm happy about that.
It's gonna resolve to 100 any minute now as soon as,
as soon as this news is,
uh,
fully confirmed,
but she's out there making the speech.
She's already been introduced by Ron DeSanttos as the next senator
of the state of Florida or whatever it was.
And
I'm just,
I'm buying and I'm buying and I'm buying,
and,
you know,
I keep buying shares.
I'm buying too many shares,
probably too many shares.
Um,
and,
uh,
and then,
it ends and it's just sticking there around 98,
then drops down to like 96.
Like,
what is going on?
And that's how I developed the,
Second Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
yes,
of course.
You gotta read the rules.
Because what I was doing,
it said,
who's the next senator or whatever it was,
who's going to be in the Senate seat in Florida,
and Ashley Moody's right there at the top.
What they were talking about was not
the,
uh,
her being named.
I think the terminology was who will be elected
as senator.
They were talking about this election,
not the one a couple of years ago.
So I've had all these shares
sitting in this Ashley Moody account.
Honestly,
like,
I kept them there instead of just selling at the time,
uh,
I kept them there to torture myself,
to remind myself of the Second Amendment to the predictable Constitution,
just like the Second Amendment to the US Constitution.
Nobody seems to want to talk about it,
but.
Frankly,
it's still part of the Constitution.
You gotta read the rules.
No one wants to do it.
I didn't wanna do it.
I was in the wrong contract.
There was another separate contract
for who DeSantis would name
that would resolve,
of course,
at $1 moments later.
Instead,
I held these contracts for multiple years and
I've actually built my position on this because.
You know,
Moody is someone who,
uh,
you know,
doesn't make tons and tons of news.
She's not a super splashy candidate,
uh,
but has strong support within the party
from DeSantis,
from that Florida Republican,
um,
group,
and,
uh,
I see no reason for her to lose this.
So
hopefully I'll finally be cashing out of that position after a long time,
but
read the freaking rules,
make sure you're in the right contract.
Sometimes there's some that look the same.
The,
the,
the question might be very,
very similar,
but if you're in the wrong one.
Uh,
that can happen.
Hopefully,
it's gonna turn out for the best as she looks like the overwhelming favorite to win.
Now,
let me go over to the other side.
This is another contract I've talked to you about multiple times over the past,
you know,
uh,
50 episodes.
Uh,
Florida Republican governor nominee.
Here it is.
This is,
uh,
Byron Donalds.
Now,
this one has had
an interesting run because Donald's currently at 98.9%. Kind
of fascinating that he's actually ahead of Moody,
who's at 98.2%.
I don't really understand that one,
honestly.
But,
uh,
you know,
Donald's is the overwhelming favorite.
He's leading in all of these polls.
Uh,
we started talking about this.
I went back and looked at when the first time I bought this was today,
it was at 83.9.
So we've ridden this up from 83.9% to 98.9% with you,
hopefully.
Uh,
and,
uh,
that has been over,
that goes back to March is when I first bought that.
So,
I've been buying,
adding to my position for a long time.
Also,
no on James Fishback was another big,
I think that might be my,
outside of Ashley Moody,
maybe my biggest position that I have right now is a no James Fishback position.
He's at 1.1%. I don't think
this is going to be a particularly close election.
I think Donald's is going to win this one.
Relatively easily
tomorrow,
but it brought up an interesting thing because here we are at 98.9,
and this is something I dealt with last week
with uh Francesca Hong.
I do expect
Donald's to pop into the 99
uh area uh here in the next 24 hours before these results even come out.
And I will probably sell in the ninety-nines rather
than wait for this whole thing to end.
Um,
you know,
and that's partially a Francesca Hong
lesson,
because I could have taken a profit on Francesca Hong.
I could have sold a small,
small loss on her.
Instead,
I read that all the way to the,
the that all the way to the bottom,
which by the way,
gave us a 17th Amendment to the predictable Constitution.
17th,
of course,
a smaller loss is a win.
A very important thing to remember when you,
uh,
maybe got something
wrong or you're a little bit now shaky on it.
It's OK to lose a few bucks rather than riding it all the way to 0.
Very difficult for me to do.
I'm trying to remind myself right here.
I got a little card on my desk that says 17th Amendment,
a smaller losses win.
Important thing to remember.
I don't think that's gonna be the case with Donald's tomorrow.
Uh,
I was much more nervous about Hong going into this than I,
you know,
I mean,
I thought she was gonna win.
I,
I did think it was gonna be closer than 20 points.
I thought maybe it might be 6.
The fact that she would lose,
I honestly didn't really enter my mind until
about an hour into the results coming out.
I still thought she was gonna come back and win once certain counties reported.
It was a weird election.
We'll get into some more details on that here in a second.
But I wanna highlight something that,
uh,
PMT said,
uh,
we've known on,
uh,
on the line as Pred M trader on,
uh,
on Twitter,
but he is a,
he does mostly,
I mean he trades all sorts of stuff.
He's kind of known for his mention market trading,
very,
very good at that.
But he says this,
and this is,
this is true.
And if you're new to prediction markets,
it is a new frontier.
Because I've been in prediction markets since at least 2014,
um,
and
this sort of stuff happened
all the time until recently.
Let me give you what he said.
He said,
back in my day,
someone with the social media virality of fishback would easily be at 10 to 20%.
Nowadays,
you got a million dollars happy to take 1%,
shaking my head.
Um,
so this is the point he's making is
Fishback is at 1.1%,
I think was what we just saw on the live market,
1.1%,
1.2%.
This is a guy who gets a lot of social media attention.
He's been talked about a lot.
He's been,
you know,
some people call him anti-Semitic and all these other things.
Um,
he's the type of guy that I don't think has any chance of winning this,
really.
Uh,
I don't think he's going to win this election.
I will be shocked if he,
uh,
honestly comes close to winning this election.
Um,
this is unlike,
you know,
uh,
James Crowley in Wisconsin,
who was a,
uh,
supported by the establishment.
He was endorsed by the current governor of the state.
Uh,
he was,
uh,
he had tons and tons of money coming in for his campaign.
He was the only guy really there left
to oppose this,
um,
seen as a weak candidate in a general election,
Francesca Hong.
This is not that situation at all in Florida.
Donald's is generally speaking,
a well-regarded guy on the right.
Donald Trump has supported him the entire time,
uh,
been very early in supporting him.
Uh,
James Fishback has kind of gone viral because he gets online a lot.
He makes a lot of kind of outlandish
statements that some people say are terrible and,
and,
and controversial.
Frankly,
like,
you know,
uh,
you know,
I would tend to agree with some of that analysis,
but that's not the point here.
The point is,
who are you gonna pick?
Uh,
who's going to win?
And I think that,
the truth is,
uh,
Donald's is gonna win this,
and we've been talking about that for months and months and months.
There there was a time in prediction markets
where
you could make that assessment today
and get 10 and 20% of your money.
This stuff is drying up a lot faster than it used to.
The markets are getting much,
much smarter.
To the extent,
I think even in the Francesca Hong thing,
we'll talk about this in the next segment a little bit,
but like,
they're almost getting too smart for their own good at times,
and that can almost be,
uh,
a problem.
In this particular situation.
You had to be out ahead of this market.
It's one of the reasons why we talked about it on multiple live streams months ago.
We talked about it with Michelle Tafoya last week,
right?
We wanted you to get 1015,
20%.
To do that,
you had to be months ahead of this.
It's no longer you could just walk in the night
before the election and pick up your 10 or 23%.
Those days seemingly are gone.
It's one of the reasons why I think if you are trading these markets at any,
uh,
higher level,
like as far as actual money that you,
you care about winning or losing.
Uh,
I,
you know,
that's why I think the premium subscription is worth your time to
get those picks early to get out in front of these things because
it's getting harder and harder to pick this stuff up.
Um,
I wanna show you,
can I show you the polls?
We have the New York Times polls here of,
of what this race looks like.
And again,
you can,
you can dismiss polls all you want.
Um,
there's been good reason to do this lately.
There's not a super recent poll.
Uh,
but Donalds has led pretty much every poll
by a very large margin,
50 to 16 over Collins,
who's actually in second,
Fishback in third with 12%.
Next poll,
49,
uh,
to 18 for Collins,
8% for Renner,
only 4% for Fishback in that particular poll.
Remember these numbers for Fishback if you,
if you will.
Donald's,
uh,
32 to 19 in,
in,
uh,
late July,
13% for Fishback in that one.
Um,
the other thing I would just point you out as you're looking at these fish back 9%,
fishback 12%.
He's around 10% in most of these polls.
Only one was he
the sub,
uh,
for,
uh,
10% by a significant amount.
But just scroll back up on these,
31% don't know,
23%.
don't know.
Uh,
14% don't know,
17% don't know,
32% don't know.
Lots of undecided in these polls.
The reason I bring that up is I wanna
bring up one interesting market that I think has some
value for you potentially tomorrow,
which is James Fishback vote percentage markets.
Uh,
all right,
we're diving a little bit deeper.
This is just wins and losses.
So,
uh,
you might not care particularly about this if you're only caring about who wins.
But if you're in the markets,
a lot of times when you have a 98,
99% favorite,
where you have to go is either into the margin markets,
which is which candidate is going to win by and by how much,
and the vote percent markets,
which are,
will a candidate clear a certain vote percentage.
Can you bring up the Fishback one if we have to have that handy?
This is James Fishback,
who's,
again,
a viral candidate.
His projection right now,
uh,
the markets are saying about 10.7% is what they believe
overall.
But if you scroll down a little bit here,
Adam,
you'll see.
Uh,
each market here.
Give me the 12 more,
yeah,
show them all,
show me all these.
So,
at least 1%.
This actually was an interesting,
the one I wish I didn't bail on because
he was in a legal battle
for any of his votes to count.
He apparently he did not actually meet the vote,
uh,
the,
uh,
residency requirements to run for governor.
And I think honestly,
that was probably true.
I mean,
he seemed to move to Washington DC during COVID.
You know,
but I kind of was,
my,
my belief was they're not gonna disqualify him over that.
It was COVID and it was weird.
He seemed to have voted in DC during an election that probably he
shouldn't have if it was going,
if he's going to qualify for governor.
Long story short,
Uh,
I bought some shares of at least 1%,
which was about a 50/50 chance at the time
because people weren't sure how that ruling would go,
and then I chickened out and sold it for basically no,
just even
it wound up going up,
so I should have,
I should have held it,
but I was worried about just projecting what
my opinion of the court's decision without really understanding the details.
Uh,
anyway,
that's just me complaining.
The bottom line is if he's in this election,
which he is,
his votes will count.
He's certainly gonna clear 1%,
which is why it showed at 99.7%.
But you saw those polls,
he's at 10 to 12% in almost every poll.
And you see,
uh,
as this gets,
he's at,
uh,
his chances of getting at least 5%,
for example,
are
93%.
Um,
so there's a little bit of profit there.
Is it 6,
he's gonna get 6%?
Well,
now it's 87% chance.
Does he get to 7?
That's a 79% chance of happening,
and so on and so on and so on.
If you go to 10% though,
you're looking at almost doubling your money at 10%,
and
he's been about at 10% in every poll,
which would make sense,
right?
Like,
OK,
every poll saying he's about 10%.
These markets are saying there's about a 50/50,
a little over 50% chance he'll get over 10%.
But if you add on to that,
the undecideds,
which are,
you know,
sometimes as much as 30% in these polls,
you have to figure he's going to pull up some of those people.
So,
these,
this is the interesting area.
Like,
I think it's possible he even hits some of these like 1314,
15% markets,
even though I don't think he's gonna be competitive to win.
You know,
uh,
15%,
which again,
is a long shot.
I don't,
you know,
you're,
you're risking a little bit here.
You're not,
you know,
you're getting cheaper shares here.
Will it get to 15?
There's only a 19% chance of that happening.
That might be a little high,
but there could be some longshot,
money,
and I do feel like there's definitely profit in that 5%,
6%,
7% area that's possible.
Uh,
so I do have positions kind of,
they,
they start a little bit bigger,
uh,
as I'm more sure,
and they get a little bit smaller,
mostly marker positions in this sort of area,
but I do think there's a chance
watching him come out that he could hit some of these numbers
that are a little bit higher.
I would not go above 15.
Uh,
it's possible.
It's not impossible.
I mean,
if he's at,
If his real percentage is at 12 or 13% in these polls,
and there's 30% undecided,
he could pick up
a third of those.
I mean,
it's not impossible,
though I,
I tend to doubt it.
I think Bob Donald's will,
will do pretty well.
And there's some Donald's markets that are,
you know,
looking at him in the 60s and 70s that are interesting as well.
So,
that's something if you're in,
you're trading these markets,
if you like that sort of stuff,
I'd say you could dig into that.
And then I just want to highlight one other thing as far as strategy goes.
Um,
there's only a few more primaries left.
One of the reasons why you don't invest in the November elections super early
is because,
uh,
you have,
uh,
you have to think about a couple of our constitutional amendments.
Uh,
the Seventh Amendment,
which is,
which is know your APR.
What is your annual percentage rate?
What are you getting on this,
right?
If you,
if you're only getting a few points,
56 points,
but you're holding it for 6 or 7 months.
You know,
it's not as sexy as being able to take
a few percent
each week in a primary.
We can take that money,
we could put,
if you have 100 bucks,
you can make $5 and you got 105 bucks to go the next time,
you turn it into 111,
112.
Then the next week you turn another 5%,
you turn that to 117,
118%.
And by the way,
the time we get to November,
you got a lot more money to invest in those elections.
When these primaries end though,
people are gonna start putting money into these,
uh,
November
markets.
We're now less than 3 months away and it's start to,
starting the time to really take some of that easier money
off the table
in those election markets.
Can you give me,
uh,
do we have like a map,
one of the map views,
either Calci or poly market?
What do we have here,
Adam?
Uh,
here's a,
this is one of the map views of the Senate,
OK?
Just to give you,
uh,
this is Calci's version of this map.
And if you see here,
what they do is give you the typical thing that you're expecting,
right?
The red and blue states,
who's favored.
And then you see,
uh,
some of the yellow states which are,
I don't know if yellow or orange,
kind of looks like a
I don't know,
like a,
a mustard yellow,
let's call it.
So the mustard yellow is sort of those toss-up type states.
Those are the states that will probably decide the Senate,
as you see,
Texas,
very slight favorite,
uh,
for the Republicans,
uh,
Alaska,
slight favorite for the Democrats,
uh,
you know,
you kind of go through this and you can,
you can check through that.
It's a nice easy way to kind of get a view of the Senate.
When you're looking at the
value here,
let me show you a state like Idaho,
for example.
Now,
Jim Risch is a sitting,
sitting senator in Idaho.
Um,
you do know where Idaho is on the map,
right?
I'm not surprising you with this,
right,
Adam?
OK,
good.
Uh,
you see,
uh,
Jim Risch at 92% to win.
Todd Achilles
is at 8%.
Look,
The First Amendment to our Constitution is a sure thing,
always has air quotes.
OK?
A sure thing is never a sure thing,
but
it would be.
Monumentally stunning if Jim Risch were to lose this race.
And now you're thinking about 8% to be able to to win over,
let's say,
a period of uh several
uh months,
right?
Less than 3 months.
So your 8% over 3 months would be 32%
APR.
That's a nice return
on a race like that.
I'll give you,
uh,
a couple of others.
Uh,
Mississippi,
for example.
Mississippi,
Cindy Hyde-Smith is there.
She's a 92% favorite.
Again,
it would be stunning if she were to lose this race.
South Dakota,
uh,
is Jim,
is,
uh,
Rounds,
who's,
uh,
we know where South Dakota is,
there it is.
He's at 93%.
Again,
7% favorite.
These are all
there for the taking,
and frankly would be absolutely stunning if any of them went the opposite way.
Look at,
uh,
Oregon,
uh,
let's go to,
uh,
give me New Mexico is another good example on the left.
The chances
of,
uh,
a sitting
Democratic senator in New Mexico losing,
uh,
now it says 94% on the map,
it says 98% when you bring it up.
I'm not sure which one it is,
honestly,
uh,
right now,
but you know,
if you can get 6%
in a Democratic year
in New Mexico,
that's a nice
thing to pocket right now.
Like,
take that,
pocket it.
Um,
you know,
a couple of other races,
as you get a little bit more,
uh,
down the line,
you start seeing these in the 80s and 90s.
Um,
they're nice to take,
especially if you can get that now because that's the
type of value that will probably go away relatively quickly.
I would say Minnesota is another one.
I know a lot of people,
there's hopes there
in Minnesota,
but you look at Minnesota,
90% chance,
uh,
for,
uh,
Peggy Flanagan.
She's at 88 right now over Michelle Tafoya.
I really like Michelle Tafoya.
I would really like Michelle Tafoya to win that race.
Chances of her winning in Minnesota are not great.
And there's a little more risk there than I would say in Idaho,
but,
uh,
in a,
in a Democratic year,
the chances of a,
an upset here in a state like that are,
it's unlikely.
So getting 12%
over 3 months,
it's actually less than 3 months,
so these numbers would be slightly higher,
but you're talking about.
You know,
nearly 50%,
probably a little bit over 50%
APR
for a race like this,
kind of nice.
Look for these opportunities now.
This is one of the reasons why I also
talk about when we're talking about these toss-up races,
I like Iowa quite a bit,
uh,
Iowa and Ashley Hinson,
she's at 56%.
Um,
go,
let's go to,
what do we have poly market up as well?
I don't know if poly market is,
uh,
has anything,
uh,
different,
but let me show you a couple of these races as well on the polymarket side.
Um,
uh,
do they have the governor's ones?
I don't know how easy that is to click around,
uh,
there.
Do we have,
uh,
the 88% chance to take the house,
they say,
which is pretty freaking high,
51% chance now Democrats take the Senate,
uh,
there,
is there a governor's page to that?
I don't know if there is.
If not,
we can go back to the Clihi one,
but
there's a couple of good breakdowns on both sites.
Uh,
I like that view
because you can kind of see just a couple of
races where you could pick these things off early.
Some of these profits will hang around for a while.
A state like Texas is gonna be probably in that 50/50 range for a little bit.
You have time on that one,
you can see what happens.
Here are the gubernatorial races and like,
look at a state like,
uh,
Texas is a good one here,
if you can find Texas on this particular list.
Texas,
uh,
is at
86% Republicans to win.
Now,
the Senate race is getting all the,
the,
the spiciness because,
um,
basically,
you know,
they think Tallarico is a good candidate.
I tend to disagree with that,
but Paxson does have his issues and because Paxson's vulnerable there,
it's a 50/50 race.
Because of that,
you're getting polling that's showing
a guy like,
uh,
Greg Abbott,
who has won multiple terms here,
uh,
and is the overwhelming favorite,
I think,
to win this race,
even though polls show with,
you know,
3 to 5 points,
he's leading right now.
Uh,
he's at 86.
Is there value there?
I think the answer to that
is yes.
Uh,
uh,
you know,
again,
14% over 3 months,
you're talking about a 56% APR
in a race of Texas governor where you don't have the weaknesses of a,
of a Ken Paxton as a candidate.
You know,
um,
uh,
Vermont governor,
I mean,
uh,
you know,
I don't know,
I haven't seen any polling on that,
but,
uh,
that's a Republican in Vermont.
Uh,
Scott,
Phil Scott,
very,
very popular there,
one of the most popular governors in the country.
Now,
you have the catastrophic outcomes of really
bad Republican year that could theoretically sink
a Scott,
but like a 10% yield in less than in less than 3 months,
you're talking about 40,
50%
APR.
There,
these type of opportunities are
all literally
all over the map right now.
All over the freaking map.
And if you get nervous about them,
I'm gonna say this cause,
you know,
I'm,
I'm a conservative.
I don't apologize for that,
but
If you're worried,
if you see one that's a 90% Republican,
90% Democrat,
a lot of times the Democrat one is even safer because you're most likely,
the tide of this election is going to lean more Democrat,
uh,
and if that's true,
uh,
the Democrats are gonna be a little bit more
safer when you're talking the 80 to 90% range,
but those opportunities are freaking all over the place right now.
And you can hop into that,
and if you just wanna lock yourself in on some of your capital,
you want to keep some of it free.
But lock some of those things in so they just
kind of churn and churn and churn and churn.
By the time we get closer to the election,
a lot of those elections are going to be instead of 88 to 92,
they're gonna be 96 to 99.
You can take your money,
you can sell out of that and get into a more interesting election at that time,
but you're going to have that run,
uh,
over the next few weeks
of those,
uh,
races that we're talking about ticking up very slowly,
uh,
over that time.
And when we,
once we hit a lot of these people,
big money
has money in these primaries.
Um,
when they are done with these primaries,
they're gonna start going into that type of race,
I think,
early on.
Um,
so,
you know,
a lot of these people,
and I'm one of them honestly,
who are in prediction markets and,
you know,
spend a decent amount of money,
and it's,
it's my job,
right?
This is what I'm doing all the time.
So this might not be what you're doing,
but,
and that's totally OK.
But when we're talking about,
uh,
these markets,
um,
I don't,
like,
it's fun to talk about the Texas elections,
and I think there's some value there still in Paxton.
Um,
you know,
at 52%.
But like most of the time,
I'm not going after the,
I don't want 50/50 things.
I don't want risk like that.
There's a lot of these things where you can just pick away and just,
you know,
say,
hey this is actually,
I think that's a 96,
97,
98%
chance of happening,
not
88%.
And you get that value and just lock in that
value over and over and over and over again.
It's much easier to repeat
and you don't have those
nights where you're having mild heart attacks as the votes are being counted.
OK,
I gotta take a break.
I won't wait too long there.
Um,
so I apologize for that.
We're gonna take a break.
We're gonna come back on the other side
with,
uh,
polling errors.
What happened in Wisconsin?
What can we learn going forward?
Back with more in a second.
So,
if you missed last week's show,
you may not know
that I did get caught with my Hong in hand last week,
and I was not happy about that.
Francesca Hong,
the candidate in.
Wisconsin,
heavy favorite to win.
I held on to my position too long
and uh wound up eating up most of my
profits from an otherwise very successful uh last primary
election.
It was one of the bigger elections,
I think I had 29 different positions.
We went 27 and 2 and I barely made any money
because I was an idiot on this one,
and this is something of course important to remember.
Uh,
so we're kind of looking at this,
and I wanna make sure we don't just pass by that
consequence or that,
that,
that occurrence because it was a really big deal.
Very rarely
do we get surprised like we did on,
uh,
on Tuesday.
Uh,
and the reason wasn't just polling.
We,
we also had some assumptions about the race,
uh,
that,
you know,
may or may not have been,
uh,
correct,
which of course was
the sort of this progressive wave.
We've been following that in state after state after state.
Uh,
and we kind of got on that bandwagon and maybe missed some of the details here.
And I wanna go over a little bit of this,
uh,
this look back from the New York Times,
uh,
how the polls got it so wrong in Wisconsin
with Francesca Hong.
As you know,
she was leading on average in these polls by about 19% points.
And so one of the things that I do when I,
when I look at this,
you look at multiple other things other than polls.
But when I'm just considering polls,
I don't,
I,
I have very
I like polls because I do think they give us information,
but they are blunt objects,
not surgical instruments.
They tell us generalities about races.
And so when you look at something and you see a,
a 2-point lead,
I don't take that as telling me that it's a two-point lead.
Uh,
I take that as telling me we don't know,
right?
Like a 2-point lead is not a two-point lead.
A 2-point lead is a,
huh,
who knows,
a shoulder shrug.
I don't know.
Anything could happen.
When it's a 5 or 6-point lead,
you start getting into,
well,
maybe we have a little bit of a leaner idea,
but still,
anything can happen.
You get up to 10 points,
you start thinking,
OK,
there's,
especially if there's a lot of polls that show that same thing,
you start getting a little bit more confident,
but you still see there are outliers that,
that go the other way.
When you start getting into 19 or 20 points,
that's so many layers of separation.
When it was showing up in multiple polls
that were statewide.
I started,
you know,
you get to that point where it makes you a little bit more confident,
especially when it aligns with your other views on the race,
right?
The fact that the Democrats have been choosing the more
liberal candidate over and over and over and over again,
the Democratic Socialist.
Generally speaking,
we just saw that happen
even in Michigan.
One of the things I,
that did cause me hesitation,
so I didn't make my position too big on Francesca Hong was
what we saw
in Michigan the week before,
where Syed still,
Al Sayed still won.
But he did not win by much.
It was a much closer election than people had expected.
That was when we caught the Haley Hail Mary,
which was a,
was a very profitable trade for us.
So,
uh,
they try to break down some of these,
and some of these,
honestly,
I just think are just flat out excuses,
like just excuses for polling that they don't deserve.
Some of them are.
Are true,
but I wanna make sure we look at this and,
and take lessons from it as we go forward so we don't,
you know,
and I say we,
a lot of you made money on that race.
A lot of you saw it coming.
So
when I say we,
I mean me
and,
uh,
all of the dumb thoughts I have in my head.
OK,
uh,
what happened on election day?
Well,
this is one I've heard a lot of,
which is basically
the polls showed Hong's vote percentage to be
basically right.
Uh,
and this is true.
Uh,
the polls basically said that Hong would get about 40% of the vote.
She went up with 39% of the vote.
What,
of course,
you know,
again,
that doesn't
make anybody feel better who lost money in a prediction market over it,
largely because
we're looking for different things than the polls sometimes provide.
I think this is largely an excuse,
frankly,
the fact that they got one side of it right and the other side wrong
is not necessarily,
uh,
an argument for polling.
But that is true.
They,
they didn't miss by that much on Hong's percentage.
What basically happened was
all the other vote
went to Crowley.
All the other undecided vote,
all the vote that went to other candidates who dropped out of the race,
all that came up and wound up going
to Crowley,
uh,
and that is,
uh,
true.
There were a lot of those people who didn't know.
About a third of voters said they were undecided going into election day.
So there was a big question as to what would happen
with,
with all of these people,
and there's,
I think,
reason to believe we even talked about it at the time.
That
the people who
haven't decided on,
on Hong yet,
like,
why aren't you there?
She's this crazy nutjob socialist,
and if you want that,
it's there.
And if you don't want it,
you're gonna go any other direction you can.
Uh,
so that is,
uh,
we probably should have seen that coming.
I just thought there was more enough cushion,
honestly,
for that,
to not be the case.
She wound up losing by only 3 or 4000 votes.
Um,
Hong did get a bunch of negative,
uh,
press late in the race.
And this is because,
you know,
look,
the Democratic machine aligned with the media on this
in not wanting Hong to win because Hong was vulnerable
in the general election
in ways that it does not seem,
um,
that,
uh,
Crowley will be.
Crowley another one if you're looking for an opportunity.
I get nervous with anything in Wisconsin right now
because the polls are always terrible there.
It's been terrible for multiple presidential cycles in a row.
Uh,
it's been,
the polls just don't seem to work.
People,
I don't know if everyone's lying in Wisconsin.
You're all liars.
You're all too cold
and you're thinking to yourself,
I'm gonna screw with this person on the phone when I take a poll.
I think something like that's happening.
Uh,
Moore,
uh,
is the late
gubernatorial,
uh,
endorsement,
excuse me,
of,
uh,
of,
uh,
Crowley.
I have all these names in my head.
I'm sorry.
Uh,
Evers is the guy who was the governor there.
He came in late.
Remember,
Crowley dropped out of the race.
He was done.
There was another quote-unquote moderate candidate that was supposed to take the,
uh,
the torch.
Uh,
then she had problems,
she had to drop out.
Then the governor said,
well,
we're gonna,
I'm gonna endorse that guy,
the guy that dropped out,
he came back in the race.
And Evers has an 85% approval rating among Democrats in the state.
So that seemed to move a lot of people.
Uh,
this one is very repeatable.
You know,
it's hard to get a candidate that drops out of the race,
comes back in,
gets endorsed by the,
the sitting governor.
That's not a normal occurrence.
A normal occurrence is this though.
If your if your campaign is running around saying,
yeah,
we're down by a lot of,
uh,
points,
but young voters have a lot of passion,
they're gonna show up in the polls,
almost never occurs.
Young voters don't like going to the polls.
Do you remember your life when you were 22 years old?
Did you want to go to the polls?
Did you want to spend a day
hanging out in a line with a bunch of sweaty people waiting,
uh,
in a long line to,
to vote?
Probably not.
You probably
figured out,
you know what I should do instead?
Watch TV.
You know what I should do instead,
play video games.
You know what I should do instead?
Get on social media and scroll mindlessly through TikTok.
So many people wound up doing that,
and the younger people that were,
of course,
promised,
uh,
didn't show up.
That's common.
It happens almost all the time.
I,
I always love going against the young vote because the young vote never shows up.
I mean,
not never,
but most of the time they don't,
they didn't hear,
uh,
so they undersold there.
And then.
Uh,
there's also the idea that Hong supporters may have been more passionate,
therefore more likely to participate in polls.
I think there's something
to that,
and frankly,
there is some evidence that Republicans and independents
who could have voted in Democratic primaries
may have looked at Hong as a legitimate
threat,
uh,
something really bad for their state and decided instead of
voting in the Republican primary that was basically decided.
They decided to go
the old uh,
Rush Limbaugh Operation chaos,
if you remember that from 2016,
crossed the line,
vote against,
uh,
the,
uh,
Republican,
uh,
against the,
uh,
socialist,
and,
uh,
go with Crowley.
Now that's interesting because,
frankly,
the more likely way to get a Republican into
office was to have Hong win that election.
Uh,
so if that actually wound up happening,
you may have erased some of the absolute worst case scenarios with Hong
being so far to the left.
Uh,
she won't be in office,
so maybe you could take some solace in that,
but
now it's more likely a Democrat is going to win that election
than the other way around.
So that's kind of how that,
that's all the excuses being tossed around basically that I've heard in
polling nerd circles
summarized in the New York Times.
Some of those are legitimate reasons,
some of those things you really can learn from.
I think some of those are just the fact that,
and I,
you know.
I have my opinions on these things,
but
frankly,
Francesca Hong was uniquely weird.
You know,
the,
the truth of the matter is
Francesca Hong was so far out there going against things like Thanksgiving,
you know,
I mean,
that you just don't get that a lot.
The same thing,
you know,
El Syed,
while he has lots of crazy beliefs,
uh,
wasn't at least
publicly talking about wanting to end major holidays,
as far as I know.
So that is,
he was able to survive where maybe Hong wasn't.
Uh,
so that's basically where we are on that,
on polling.
I wanna show you a couple of other races
though before we talked a lot of politics today.
Let me give you a couple of other things that I think are interesting.
I've got a couple of markets I really like.
I wanna tell you about here in just a second.
Also wanna remind you,
PredictableShow.com.
Go there,
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We had a lot of people showing up.
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as well.
PredictableShow.com,
back in a second.
It's time for another episode of Here's what I kind of like.
And this happens when I'm like just scrolling through markets and I see one,
it kind of seems interesting.
Doesn't mean I've done 9 hours of research on it,
all right?
This is just,
this is what I kind of like.
It's,
it's piqued my interest a little bit.
And I've taken a little,
maybe a marker position or a small position on it.
And I'm kind of interested to see maybe if there's more there.
OK?
Let me give you this one.
who will be Trump's next press secretary?
Uh,
this market is out there right now.
And,
and look,
look.
There's a bunch of names here,
some of which I think have basically no chance whatsoever.
Uh,
but one of the favorites caught my eye.
There's a little bit of profit to be made here and I kind of like it.
Scott Jennings is in 3rd,
and,
and let's scroll down to Scott,
Scott's chart if we have it.
Uh,
it's not much to do on the,
on the chart per se.
It's hanging around 17%.
I like the no position here a little bit.
Because,
uh,
Scott's got a pretty good life right now.
He's got a big,
uh,
podcast,
he's on,
you know,
he's on TV,
he makes lots of money.
I don't know why he'd want to ruin his life
to go in to be
Trump's next press secretary,
which is the most thankless job in the entire universe,
uh,
and really only presents downside for you.
Uh,
as a person who already has success in their career.
Now,
if you can look at some of the other names on this list,
most of them are not particularly famous.
Most of them seem to be
of a certain profile.
Uh,
you might,
uh,
interestingly see,
uh,
somewhat attractive younger ladies,
I would say is the,
maybe the,
uh,
particular profile,
as,
as you'd see,
that's something that Trump has seemed to like with his last,
uh,
couple of picks.
Um,
so that is there.
Again,
like some of these names
down here,
yeah,
I think you could find a lot of nos.
Like I don't think there's any chance Erica
Kirk is going to be the next spokesperson.
Uh,
I would say there's almost no chance Laura Loomer would take the gig,
but I don't think there's any chance she gets offered it.
Uh,
you have,
uh,
a bunch of names down here.
Spencer Pratt would be fun,
but I don't think that's happening.
Uh,
but these are all,
Jason Miller is a great one.
Like there,
there's no chance Jason Miller is gonna be the spokesperson.
Like he's got a huge policy job.
But again,
you're only getting 0.3% on that position.
Tucker Carlson,
again,
certainly no chance of that,
uh,
99.9%. So you're not getting any profit there.
But you go back up to,
uh,
Scott,
uh,
Jennings.
I mean,
you really do,
he'd be a good,
he'd do,
he'd do this job very well,
I think.
But you're at 15%,
and you get some profit you can take there.
So that's one I kinda like,
uh,
for that particular role.
Let me give you one more though.
I always say,
here's one I kinda like,
but there's always a few.
Uh,
uh,
let me give you one more.
This one,
by the way,
comes from one of our,
uh,
predictableShow.com premium subscribers.
Christian writes this comment,
I didn't know,
I hadn't seen this one yet.
I just noticed that there's a market for Pedro Pascal to be nominated
for Best Actor
for Mandalorian and Grogu.
No is in the mid-60s.
This is about the closest thing to a sure
thing as I've ever seen convince me I'm wrong.
Here's the thing,
Christian,
I am not going to convince you that you're wrong on that.
I think it's a great pickup.
Have you seen,
have you ever watched the Mandalorian?
What is it,
what does Pedro Pascal even do in this job?
He just stands there in a mask.
It's like giving a Best Actor to the guy
who plays Michael Myers in the Halloween movies.
He doesn't do anything.
I mean,
sure,
he's involved in the action sequences,
but are we even sure he shows up to the days where they're shooting the movie?
And frankly,
even voicing the character,
one of the characteristics of voicing the character is to be completely monotone.
So he,
the guy's behind a mask
and he's just talking with no voice inflection.
They're gonna give him Best Picture,
uh,
best actor nomination.
Now,
he's very,
very,
uh,
left-ish.
Uh,
he's way out there.
So anybody in that category,
there's always some chance they get a
nomination just for having the right politics.
But come on,
anybody on earth could have played that role.
Well,
show me the market on this.
It doesn't make any sense.
Pedro Pascal,
uh,
and you see some of these other guys,
Malkovich is there,
Pattinson,
Ryan Gosling,
I think all decent bets,
uh,
to,
uh,
to get a particular nomination.
Pedro Pascal,
you could still,
uh,
no is 65%.
So you're talking about
35% profit on a 65% investment.
You're over,
uh,
50% profit
for Pedro Pascal.
When do,
when do the Oscar nominations come out?
Because that was late in the year,
right?
Then
or do we go early next year?
I guess it would be early next year because you
have to wait for all the movies to come out.
So,
uh,
early next year,
so we got a little bit of time on this one,
but
I also don't like Pedro Pascal.
I don't really care for the Mandalorian,
frankly,
as a Star Wars product.
I like Star Wars,
but they've,
they've,
they've shaken me,
I will say over the years,
frankly,
because of the Mandalorian and partially what they did with Gino Carana.
Carrano,
who's the best,
the best character in that actual show.
he does nothing as Mandalorian.
He sits here and talks to a puppet monotone behind a mask.
Again,
here's what I kinda like.
I don't know,
I,
maybe he's the biggest favorite in the world for this.
It just doesn't make any sense to me,
and I've taken a position
against him getting this nomination.
It's just a joke.
The,
and the movie bombed,
kinda,
kinda bombed for a Star Wars movie,
it bombed.
So
Those are the two that I kinda like.
By the way,
all of my predictions are up at predictableShow.com.
It's part of the premium tier.
Do we have that page there?
I said at the beginning,
I'm like,
hey,
we should do like an,
uh,
you know,
I use this as a euphemism.
I'm like an album release party,
right?
Where we like release the picks and we can talk about them as they come out
and everyone kind of gets access to them at the same time,
and they took this literally and made album covers for
every single time I do one of these releases.
So there's Stu P.
That's kind of like a,
I don't know,
what am I,
Jimmy Buffett there?
I look like uh the most interesting man in the world,
uh,
except,
you know,
you could tell it's AI cause I'm not the most interesting man in the world.
But,
uh,
it was,
uh,
you see here we have a little write-up that explains everything,
and then you kinda go down,
you can kinda see the beginning of this.
There's a little database.
All my pics are there for you.
Uh,
you can actually go up in the upper corner and
expand this to a sort of a full screen thing
and see all of them at once.
There you go.
Uh,
lots of pics that I have,
so you can go and check those out.
They're all at predictableShow.com for premium subscribers.
OK.
Uh,
we've gone too long today.
Thank you so much for joining us.
Uh,
lots of fun.
Tomorrow,
I should just let you know,
our normal show,
we'll probably do a little preview of some of the
other races in the primary states for Tuesday night,
and then we'll be on the air
Tuesday night as votes come out,
uh,
a long live stream available
basically everywhere you can find us,
uh,
youtube.com/atpredictableshw
at predictable.
Show on basically every social media.
Join us there.
Go to predictableShow.com.
We'll be streaming there and then we will have an exclusive subscriber chat
that goes along into the night as the,
uh,
the,
as long as the races are interesting,
we'll,
we'll stay on the air,
uh,
broadcasting and live streaming,
uh,
with you.
So
hang out with us,
Predictablehow.com.
Thanks so much for joining us.
We'll see you tomorrow.