WEBVTT

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.

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We have a major development in 2028.

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A new leader

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in the prediction markets.

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We'll tell you about that in here,

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in here just a second,

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honestly,

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because we also have to do that.

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We have to do Pat Gray as well.

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We're gonna bring him in.

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He's got Mitch McConnell talk.

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Uh,

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is Mitch coming back ever?

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We do aliens exist?

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And also,

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uh,

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Caroline Leavitt,

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the,

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the Democratic midterms,

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Abdul El Sayed,

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lots of stuff to talk to Pat about,

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so

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we'll get to that as well.

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We'd love you to join us on PredictableShow.com.

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There's a free membership there you can do with your email,

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lots of information,

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the great stuff,

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conversation about prediction markets

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and the elections generally.

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And of course,

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we have our premium tier as well at predictableshow.com.

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Let's get the show started.

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82 days

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until the election.

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82 days,

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we are in that,

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like,

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uh,

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the final stretch.

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There's a few more primaries coming up and then we get into

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freak out time.

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Everyone's going to panic.

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Uh,

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and it is one of those situations where

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we,

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we have a road that is,

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uh,

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very,

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very interesting,

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and there are a lot of opportunities.

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If you wanna be bold,

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you could find really big opportunities in these markets.

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Uh,

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but also just,

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uh,

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uh,

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sort of conservative,

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uh,

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investments that you can make a great return over the next few months.

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Lots of those options to give you.

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We give you all those on predictableShow.com.

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Obviously,

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as,

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uh,

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on a show,

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we can't get to every single,

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uh,

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every single market,

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every single thing.

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Uh,

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we're time-limited there,

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but at least with the premium tier,

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you get every single prediction that I have,

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every single position that I hold.

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Excuse me.

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And,

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uh,

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that is,

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uh,

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part of the premium tier.

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There's over 200 of them.

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We're gonna have them updated for you,

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uh,

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tomorrow.

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Uh,

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and,

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uh,

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we do that,

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uh,

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all the time in the premium chat.

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So,

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great community,

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we'd love you to join us,

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Predictableshow.com.

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Now,

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let me talk to you about AOC.

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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,

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she's leaving her 2028 options

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open.

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She's been kind of flirting with this.

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She's leaving her options open while she's freezing her eggs.

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That's a whole another storyline,

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honestly,

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with AOC right now.

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Uh,

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but so she's doing the egg freezing thing,

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she's on social media all the time.

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Nothing of that is new,

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and she's keeping this sort of option open to run

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in 2028.

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1 thing I think we've seen

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over the years.

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And I think

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this isn't a a completely true rule,

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but it does feel true,

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um,

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at least common,

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which is when you have a moment,

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when you have an opening

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at the presidency of the United States,

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take it.

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Uh,

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take that opening,

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give it a shot.

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Because a lot of times you,

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you can outsmart yourself by waiting.

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And,

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uh,

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we saw this like,

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for example,

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you think of a person like Chris Christie,

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uh,

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back in,

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was it 2012?

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I think it was 2012,

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yeah,

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it was,

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uh,

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when Obama was going for his second term,

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and Christie was kind of the hot new thing,

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uh,

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you know,

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not,

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not appearance-wise,

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uh,

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necessarily,

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but

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he was,

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uh,

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kind of a big thing on the Republican side,

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right?

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Uh,

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blue,

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uh,

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blue state governor

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was popular,

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he had done things that were relatively conservative,

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getting,

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you know,

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going after some union stuff,

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a lot of regulation stuff,

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he had cut taxes.

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And he was a,

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a very prominent figure going into 2012.

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Decided not to run,

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thought,

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you know what,

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I'm not gonna take on Obama,

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I'll go for it in 2016.

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We all know how that worked out.

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Not well,

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not well.

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I don't know if he ever cleared 3% in a poll.

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Uh,

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it just,

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no one was interested four years later.

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We are a fickle group,

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us Americans,

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and usually we get kind of bored of people.

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We're like,

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no,

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you know,

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there's been different,

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I mean,

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Donald Trump has obviously,

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you know,

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dominated the discourse in this country for a decade.

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Uh,

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he was able to come back and

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do it again,

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uh,

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though he basically ran that entire time,

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he didn't,

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he didn't choose not to run,

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but he did a few times earlier.

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So Trump is a very weird situation,

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as you might know,

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as he might admit,

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uh,

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a bit of an outlier,

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right,

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like a bit of a unique figure in American history,

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but usually when you're just kind of like a person that people know,

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and you're like,

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ah,

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I'll just wait a few years,

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it doesn't always work out all that well.

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Um,

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especially in an environment where there's gonna be a

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lot of people running for the Democratic nomination.

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Kamala Harris is still talking about that as well.

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Kamala Harris's chances of beating Newsom and AOC in new 2028 poll.

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You know,

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I will say

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it's interesting what you're going through.

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I was just mentioning predictableShow.com and the premium tier.

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We have over 200 of my,

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uh,

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prediction market positions listed there for you to peruse,

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uh,

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maybe join in on,

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maybe make fun of.

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Uh,

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I,

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uh,

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as I was going through this list,

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I was looking at them and I was like,

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a lot of these I'm,

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I'm relatively proud of,

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right?

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Like they're positions,

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some of them were positions that I took at,

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you know,

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50 cents.

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They're already at 98 or 99.

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Some of them I think I really feel comfortable about.

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Some of the ones that aren't going to hit.

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I'm totally fine with my thinking and,

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and process on them.

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And honestly,

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like,

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I look at it and I'm like,

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you know what?

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I feel good about that one.

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I feel good.

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I feel like I,

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I,

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I took a good position.

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It was the right thing to do.

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The value was there,

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didn't work out.

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One of the things we talk about all the time on this program is finding

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value.

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Value doesn't necessarily mean winning every time.

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And,

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you know,

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sometimes you take something at 30%,

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and you believe there's a 70% chance of it happening,

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and it doesn't happen.

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And if you are comfortable with understanding that uh 30% of the

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time in a situation like that you're not going to win,

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taking those value picks works a lot.

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We've hit those a lot

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with uh with really small percentage values in this particular election year.

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A lot of these where we bought in very,

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very low at,

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you know,

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$0.5

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or 1 cent or 2 cents

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on something we thought maybe had a 10% chance of happening.

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And because of that we've hit a lot of those.

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That's just value,

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right?

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It doesn't mean that they necessarily even go on to win,

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but you can make a profit as it goes up to 10 or 15 or 20%

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as time goes on.

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So we look for that value all the time.

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We're not always expecting to win those positions.

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When it comes to elections,

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you'll notice like when I say like,

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you know,

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we went 27 and 2

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in this past election.

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week during the primary,

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a lot of times with elections there's so many options.

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I feel like,

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you know,

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let's take

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what I feel like are close to

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sure things,

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or I can find tons and tons of value,

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and that's why we're able to hit high numbers,

292
00:06:18.464 --> 00:06:19.855
but I don't expect to hit all those,

293
00:06:20.184 --> 00:06:20.334
you know,

294
00:06:20.385 --> 00:06:20.464
I,

295
00:06:20.584 --> 00:06:21.924
I took a position on

296
00:06:23.265 --> 00:06:24.105
American League Rookie of the Year,

297
00:06:24.225 --> 00:06:25.345
a guy named Kaz Aakamoto.

298
00:06:25.385 --> 00:06:26.654
He's on the Blue Jays,

299
00:06:26.665 --> 00:06:26.954
and,

300
00:06:27.424 --> 00:06:27.625
you know,

301
00:06:27.744 --> 00:06:28.934
like he's an older guy,

302
00:06:29.144 --> 00:06:29.154
uh,

303
00:06:29.304 --> 00:06:31.024
he's not a 25-year-old rookie.

304
00:06:31.105 --> 00:06:31.385
He's a,

305
00:06:31.545 --> 00:06:31.695
you know,

306
00:06:31.774 --> 00:06:32.424
in his 30s.

307
00:06:32.625 --> 00:06:33.385
He came from Japan,

308
00:06:33.505 --> 00:06:34.684
was a great player over in Japan.

309
00:06:35.190 --> 00:06:36.829
And people didn't really think of him as a rookie,

310
00:06:36.839 --> 00:06:38.440
and I took a position on him as a rookie.

311
00:06:38.559 --> 00:06:38.760
I,

312
00:06:38.880 --> 00:06:41.579
he's gonna wind up probably hitting 35 home runs this year

313
00:06:41.720 --> 00:06:43.320
and probably finishing like 3rd.

314
00:06:43.630 --> 00:06:44.480
And it's not gonna work.

315
00:06:44.559 --> 00:06:46.160
I'm probably gonna lose my position on that,

316
00:06:46.230 --> 00:06:48.059
but I feel comfortable with my process on that.

317
00:06:48.309 --> 00:06:48.640
Uh,

318
00:06:48.760 --> 00:06:49.160
not because,

319
00:06:49.239 --> 00:06:49.350
uh,

320
00:06:49.399 --> 00:06:49.790
and people are like,

321
00:06:49.829 --> 00:06:49.950
oh,

322
00:06:49.959 --> 00:06:50.000
well,

323
00:06:50.079 --> 00:06:50.989
you just like the Blue Jays,

324
00:06:51.029 --> 00:06:52.200
which is bizarrely true.

325
00:06:52.359 --> 00:06:53.390
And if you don't know that about me,

326
00:06:53.600 --> 00:06:54.880
I'm a Toronto Blue Jays fan.

327
00:06:55.250 --> 00:06:55.679
Um,

328
00:06:55.690 --> 00:06:55.839
uh,

329
00:06:55.929 --> 00:06:56.269
but

330
00:06:56.970 --> 00:06:59.339
actually that makes me less likely to make a Blue Jack.

331
00:06:59.470 --> 00:06:59.950
I'm,

332
00:07:00.290 --> 00:07:00.730
I'm more,

333
00:07:00.929 --> 00:07:01.769
more likely to not do it.

334
00:07:01.850 --> 00:07:03.600
I really like my process there and I'm happy about it.

335
00:07:03.609 --> 00:07:03.730
I,

336
00:07:03.850 --> 00:07:05.970
I said that about the Jalen Brunson on the cover of,

337
00:07:06.049 --> 00:07:06.279
uh,

338
00:07:06.290 --> 00:07:07.149
NBA 2K.

339
00:07:07.369 --> 00:07:08.359
I like the process there,

340
00:07:08.369 --> 00:07:09.170
even though we were wrong.

341
00:07:09.250 --> 00:07:10.089
I like the process there.

342
00:07:10.130 --> 00:07:10.450
I'm OK.

343
00:07:10.529 --> 00:07:11.410
I'm comfortable losing that.

344
00:07:12.200 --> 00:07:12.790
Kamala Harris,

345
00:07:12.799 --> 00:07:13.000
I get,

346
00:07:13.149 --> 00:07:14.760
I say all that basically to lead you to this,

347
00:07:14.839 --> 00:07:15.420
which is

348
00:07:16.179 --> 00:07:18.920
I have Kamala Harris will not run as a position

349
00:07:18.920 --> 00:07:21.510
out of that 200 positions that are listed on PredictableShow.com,

350
00:07:21.519 --> 00:07:23.950
and that was like the probably the worst one

351
00:07:24.290 --> 00:07:24.679
because I was like,

352
00:07:24.760 --> 00:07:25.630
what was I thinking?

353
00:07:25.720 --> 00:07:27.880
Like her ego wasn't big enough to try this again.

354
00:07:27.959 --> 00:07:28.309
Like I,

355
00:07:28.559 --> 00:07:29.239
I don't know what I was thinking.

356
00:07:29.279 --> 00:07:30.579
I I thought people were done with her,

357
00:07:30.799 --> 00:07:31.779
and she'd realized that.

358
00:07:32.040 --> 00:07:32.279
And that,

359
00:07:32.320 --> 00:07:32.640
I don't know,

360
00:07:32.720 --> 00:07:33.989
it seems insane to me now,

361
00:07:34.200 --> 00:07:34.579
but

362
00:07:34.920 --> 00:07:35.839
these things happen in prediction,

363
00:07:35.920 --> 00:07:36.149
Marcus,

364
00:07:36.269 --> 00:07:36.760
sometimes you're wrong.

365
00:07:36.839 --> 00:07:37.190
Anyway,

366
00:07:37.399 --> 00:07:37.470
uh,

367
00:07:37.519 --> 00:07:38.010
let me show you,

368
00:07:38.040 --> 00:07:38.149
uh,

369
00:07:38.200 --> 00:07:39.559
what this looks like right now.

370
00:07:39.600 --> 00:07:41.989
The Democratic nominee for president of the United States,

371
00:07:42.040 --> 00:07:43.510
you say is Kamala Harris leading.

372
00:07:43.760 --> 00:07:43.880
Well,

373
00:07:44.000 --> 00:07:44.799
she's the big favorite,

374
00:07:44.880 --> 00:07:45.049
right?

375
00:07:45.160 --> 00:07:45.320
No,

376
00:07:45.440 --> 00:07:46.739
she's not even in the top three.

377
00:07:47.850 --> 00:07:49.570
She's the favorite in the polls right now,

378
00:07:49.850 --> 00:07:51.920
not even in the top 3 to actually win it.

379
00:07:52.209 --> 00:07:55.690
And can we zoom in maybe to like a month here real quick,

380
00:07:55.790 --> 00:07:56.040
Adam?

381
00:07:56.089 --> 00:07:57.970
You see the blue line on the top is Gavin Newsom,

382
00:07:58.010 --> 00:07:59.309
who's been the favorite for a while.

383
00:07:59.690 --> 00:07:59.790
Uh,

384
00:07:59.890 --> 00:08:00.880
Jon Ossoff was,

385
00:08:00.890 --> 00:08:01.079
uh,

386
00:08:01.089 --> 00:08:01.510
2nd,

387
00:08:01.619 --> 00:08:01.809
uh,

388
00:08:02.130 --> 00:08:04.369
intermittently with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,

389
00:08:04.450 --> 00:08:06.029
but a big thing happened yesterday.

390
00:08:06.290 --> 00:08:07.049
For the 1st time,

391
00:08:07.160 --> 00:08:09.839
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has become the favorite,

392
00:08:10.089 --> 00:08:11.140
the favorite

393
00:08:11.519 --> 00:08:12.429
to be the nominee

394
00:08:13.010 --> 00:08:13.609
for the president.

395
00:08:13.660 --> 00:08:13.760
And,

396
00:08:13.829 --> 00:08:13.880
and,

397
00:08:13.890 --> 00:08:14.119
you know,

398
00:08:14.209 --> 00:08:15.089
this is one thing where,

399
00:08:15.250 --> 00:08:15.329
look,

400
00:08:15.410 --> 00:08:16.510
I'm not a poll hater.

401
00:08:17.109 --> 00:08:17.880
A lot of people are.

402
00:08:17.959 --> 00:08:18.720
A lot of people hate polls.

403
00:08:18.760 --> 00:08:20.420
A lot of people say never listen to polls.

404
00:08:20.839 --> 00:08:22.450
That's not what I think at all.

405
00:08:23.000 --> 00:08:23.799
And this is a guy,

406
00:08:23.880 --> 00:08:25.320
it is coming from a guy who just,

407
00:08:25.399 --> 00:08:26.089
uh,

408
00:08:26.359 --> 00:08:27.269
got destroyed,

409
00:08:27.279 --> 00:08:27.440
uh,

410
00:08:27.480 --> 00:08:28.739
with Francesca Hong,

411
00:08:28.760 --> 00:08:28.869
uh,

412
00:08:28.880 --> 00:08:29.299
this week.

413
00:08:29.559 --> 00:08:29.760
OK.

414
00:08:29.910 --> 00:08:30.440
So I,

415
00:08:30.720 --> 00:08:32.909
I realize that they are bad at times and,

416
00:08:32.960 --> 00:08:33.119
and,

417
00:08:33.200 --> 00:08:33.940
and mistakes

418
00:08:34.159 --> 00:08:34.820
are made.

419
00:08:35.080 --> 00:08:35.710
But what,

420
00:08:35.719 --> 00:08:37.308
usually what we get out of polls,

421
00:08:37.590 --> 00:08:38.229
and I think of this,

422
00:08:38.320 --> 00:08:39.640
I try to explain it this way all the time.

423
00:08:40.090 --> 00:08:40.369
Uh,

424
00:08:40.489 --> 00:08:41.429
polling

425
00:08:41.530 --> 00:08:42.039
is,

426
00:08:42.450 --> 00:08:43.359
is a tool.

427
00:08:43.650 --> 00:08:44.130
It is a,

428
00:08:44.330 --> 00:08:44.690
it is a,

429
00:08:44.799 --> 00:08:46.200
it is not a surgical tool.

430
00:08:46.489 --> 00:08:47.760
It is a blunt object.

431
00:08:48.369 --> 00:08:49.880
Polling can you tell you

432
00:08:50.130 --> 00:08:50.880
typically

433
00:08:51.450 --> 00:08:52.229
generalities.

434
00:08:52.409 --> 00:08:53.070
It can tell you,

435
00:08:53.409 --> 00:08:54.289
generally speaking,

436
00:08:54.390 --> 00:08:55.130
what's going to happen.

437
00:08:55.210 --> 00:08:55.919
It can't,

438
00:08:56.210 --> 00:08:56.330
it,

439
00:08:56.409 --> 00:08:57.590
it is not designed,

440
00:08:58.010 --> 00:09:02.469
nor is it capable of telling you the difference in that Hong versus

441
00:09:02.770 --> 00:09:06.750
Crowley race down to the 3000 votes that it wound up being the determinative factor.

442
00:09:07.919 --> 00:09:08.280
You,

443
00:09:08.400 --> 00:09:09.840
polls can give you generalities,

444
00:09:10.039 --> 00:09:12.820
which is why typically I look for cushions in them.

445
00:09:13.559 --> 00:09:13.719
Uh,

446
00:09:13.799 --> 00:09:13.960
you know,

447
00:09:14.239 --> 00:09:15.289
the 2024

448
00:09:15.679 --> 00:09:16.940
election is a good example of that,

449
00:09:17.169 --> 00:09:17.359
uh,

450
00:09:17.479 --> 00:09:17.880
or excuse me,

451
00:09:17.919 --> 00:09:18.760
2020.

452
00:09:18.989 --> 00:09:19.159
Um,

453
00:09:19.239 --> 00:09:21.500
I thought that Joe Biden was gonna win that election.

454
00:09:21.679 --> 00:09:22.030
Now look,

455
00:09:22.119 --> 00:09:22.599
I don't,

456
00:09:22.760 --> 00:09:24.020
I didn't want him to win that election.

457
00:09:24.429 --> 00:09:24.679
Uh,

458
00:09:24.760 --> 00:09:25.119
frankly,

459
00:09:25.200 --> 00:09:27.099
I did not think he was a very good president.

460
00:09:27.559 --> 00:09:28.859
But that being said,

461
00:09:29.169 --> 00:09:29.479
uh,

462
00:09:29.599 --> 00:09:30.840
I did think he was going to win,

463
00:09:30.869 --> 00:09:34.340
and I thought he had enough of a cushion that even if the polls were wrong,

464
00:09:34.909 --> 00:09:36.239
that he would still win.

465
00:09:36.750 --> 00:09:37.320
And,

466
00:09:37.349 --> 00:09:37.830
uh,

467
00:09:37.950 --> 00:09:38.109
you know,

468
00:09:38.429 --> 00:09:39.929
of course there's more to it than just that.

469
00:09:40.030 --> 00:09:42.099
There's fundamentals and there's fundraising,

470
00:09:42.109 --> 00:09:44.349
and there's a million different things that go into

471
00:09:44.349 --> 00:09:46.409
a model like that and a consideration like that.

472
00:09:47.250 --> 00:09:47.760
But

473
00:09:48.260 --> 00:09:49.400
one of the reasons was,

474
00:09:49.419 --> 00:09:51.010
we had a little room to work with on that.

475
00:09:51.260 --> 00:09:52.099
He was favored by,

476
00:09:52.179 --> 00:09:52.460
I don't know,

477
00:09:52.539 --> 00:09:53.460
I don't remember what the polling was,

478
00:09:53.539 --> 00:09:53.859
but it was,

479
00:09:53.969 --> 00:09:54.059
you know,

480
00:09:54.140 --> 00:09:54.929
7 or 8 points.

481
00:09:55.099 --> 00:09:56.520
He only wound up winning by a couple.

482
00:09:56.780 --> 00:09:57.210
And so,

483
00:09:57.219 --> 00:09:59.280
actually the polls were wrong in a lot of those states,

484
00:09:59.460 --> 00:10:02.640
and they were wrong the way we kind of predicted they would be wrong.

485
00:10:02.849 --> 00:10:02.979
Uh,

486
00:10:03.219 --> 00:10:03.609
usually,

487
00:10:03.650 --> 00:10:05.049
and when Donald Trump's involved in a,

488
00:10:05.099 --> 00:10:05.369
in a,

489
00:10:05.419 --> 00:10:06.020
in an election,

490
00:10:06.140 --> 00:10:06.340
it,

491
00:10:06.500 --> 00:10:08.280
the polls usually are wrong

492
00:10:08.500 --> 00:10:10.640
and undercount what Trump will get.

493
00:10:10.820 --> 00:10:12.780
But there was enough of a gap there that he wound up winning.

494
00:10:12.820 --> 00:10:13.020
Again,

495
00:10:13.099 --> 00:10:13.700
you could talk about.

496
00:10:13.755 --> 00:10:15.755
Whatever you want to talk about on the outskirts of that election,

497
00:10:15.794 --> 00:10:16.234
but that was,

498
00:10:16.354 --> 00:10:17.934
that was part of the reasoning why

499
00:10:18.234 --> 00:10:18.664
we did very,

500
00:10:18.715 --> 00:10:19.835
very well in 2020.

501
00:10:19.875 --> 00:10:20.195
If you,

502
00:10:20.234 --> 00:10:20.445
uh,

503
00:10:20.554 --> 00:10:21.585
were with us at the time,

504
00:10:21.914 --> 00:10:25.755
we called the electoral count numbers exactly correct in that election,

505
00:10:25.794 --> 00:10:27.835
and that wound up being very profitable for us,

506
00:10:28.034 --> 00:10:29.315
but that was also just a pro,

507
00:10:29.395 --> 00:10:29.635
you know,

508
00:10:29.835 --> 00:10:30.734
partially a.

509
00:10:31.039 --> 00:10:31.320
Um,

510
00:10:31.400 --> 00:10:34.419
a position of trying to understand what the weaknesses of polling are.

511
00:10:34.799 --> 00:10:35.400
Polling is great,

512
00:10:35.479 --> 00:10:36.840
but this is a great example where prediction

513
00:10:36.840 --> 00:10:39.280
markets are far vastly superior to polling.

514
00:10:39.520 --> 00:10:41.799
Kamala Harris should not be the favorite

515
00:10:42.000 --> 00:10:42.799
in a poll

516
00:10:43.039 --> 00:10:44.450
for the Democratic National,

517
00:10:44.559 --> 00:10:44.760
uh,

518
00:10:44.950 --> 00:10:45.500
nomination.

519
00:10:45.719 --> 00:10:47.619
It is possible she wins.

520
00:10:47.919 --> 00:10:49.179
It is possible.

521
00:10:49.760 --> 00:10:53.919
It would be completely bonkers and insane for the Democrats to do that.

522
00:10:54.359 --> 00:10:57.479
But the reason she's ahead right now is not because she's actually the favorite,

523
00:10:57.559 --> 00:10:59.219
it's because of name recognition.

524
00:10:59.479 --> 00:11:01.549
She's still seen as a presidential person.

525
00:11:01.880 --> 00:11:02.270
She is,

526
00:11:02.280 --> 00:11:02.489
uh,

527
00:11:02.559 --> 00:11:04.309
the Democrats that will nominate her.

528
00:11:04.520 --> 00:11:07.580
The most recent person they voted for is Kamala Harris.

529
00:11:08.159 --> 00:11:12.119
She's now in the rearview mirror as a person that they look back at and say,

530
00:11:12.239 --> 00:11:12.710
gosh,

531
00:11:12.950 --> 00:11:14.099
I wish she would have won.

532
00:11:14.450 --> 00:11:15.679
That's how Democrats look at it.

533
00:11:15.760 --> 00:11:16.650
They don't look at it as,

534
00:11:16.760 --> 00:11:16.960
uh,

535
00:11:17.080 --> 00:11:17.239
well,

536
00:11:17.320 --> 00:11:17.479
you know,

537
00:11:17.640 --> 00:11:18.239
she failed,

538
00:11:18.280 --> 00:11:18.559
or,

539
00:11:18.640 --> 00:11:18.880
you know,

540
00:11:19.119 --> 00:11:19.200
they,

541
00:11:19.280 --> 00:11:21.630
they think it was stacked against her for a million different reasons.

542
00:11:21.840 --> 00:11:22.219
Anyway,

543
00:11:22.520 --> 00:11:22.630
uh,

544
00:11:22.679 --> 00:11:23.820
give me that presidential nomination,

545
00:11:24.039 --> 00:11:24.479
uh,

546
00:11:24.489 --> 00:11:25.119
count one more time.

547
00:11:25.909 --> 00:11:26.309
Uh,

548
00:11:26.630 --> 00:11:29.590
I think this nomination count is actually relatively,

549
00:11:29.710 --> 00:11:29.909
uh,

550
00:11:29.989 --> 00:11:30.190
uh,

551
00:11:30.229 --> 00:11:30.669
pretty good,

552
00:11:30.789 --> 00:11:30.900
uh,

553
00:11:30.989 --> 00:11:31.270
honestly,

554
00:11:31.390 --> 00:11:32.070
where it's priced.

555
00:11:32.309 --> 00:11:32.419
Uh,

556
00:11:32.429 --> 00:11:33.669
AOC at 17%,

557
00:11:33.789 --> 00:11:34.869
Newsom now at 17%.

558
00:11:34.950 --> 00:11:36.859
That's been tied since we started talking about it.

559
00:11:37.070 --> 00:11:37.830
You see in third place,

560
00:11:37.869 --> 00:11:38.469
Jon Ossoff,

561
00:11:38.549 --> 00:11:38.869
which is,

562
00:11:38.950 --> 00:11:40.030
I think he is a competitor.

563
00:11:40.099 --> 00:11:40.429
He's a guy,

564
00:11:40.469 --> 00:11:40.710
by the way,

565
00:11:40.789 --> 00:11:42.710
I have a pretty decent sized position on

566
00:11:43.030 --> 00:11:45.450
for November of this year to win in Georgia.

567
00:11:45.700 --> 00:11:46.020
Um,

568
00:11:46.229 --> 00:11:47.789
it has risen up into the 80s.

569
00:11:48.109 --> 00:11:49.770
There may still be some value there.

570
00:11:50.140 --> 00:11:50.369
Um,

571
00:11:50.510 --> 00:11:51.109
scroll down though,

572
00:11:51.219 --> 00:11:51.789
give me the other names.

573
00:11:51.869 --> 00:11:52.219
What do we have?

574
00:11:52.349 --> 00:11:53.109
Let's look at the list here.

575
00:11:53.190 --> 00:11:54.190
AOC is first,

576
00:11:54.270 --> 00:11:54.549
uh,

577
00:11:54.630 --> 00:11:56.309
tied with Newsom at 17%,

578
00:11:56.400 --> 00:11:57.469
Ossoff at 13%,

579
00:11:57.590 --> 00:11:59.729
Kamala Harris at 9.5%. They see her

580
00:12:00.080 --> 00:12:01.809
prediction markets here as the fourth choice.

581
00:12:02.510 --> 00:12:03.229
Mark Kelly,

582
00:12:03.390 --> 00:12:04.309
Pete Buttigieg,

583
00:12:04.469 --> 00:12:05.369
Josh Shapiro.

584
00:12:06.020 --> 00:12:07.690
Shapiro is an interesting one in that like,

585
00:12:07.979 --> 00:12:09.280
he may very well be

586
00:12:09.500 --> 00:12:12.059
the candidate they should choose in a lot of ways.

587
00:12:12.140 --> 00:12:13.900
Like he comes off occasionally as moderate,

588
00:12:14.010 --> 00:12:15.729
he's a very good communicator,

589
00:12:15.900 --> 00:12:17.289
he's a popular governor in a,

590
00:12:17.340 --> 00:12:19.130
in the swingiest of swing states,

591
00:12:19.179 --> 00:12:19.969
Pennsylvania,

592
00:12:20.219 --> 00:12:24.179
and yet they have him at 4.6%. I don't wanna say that a big reason for that is the,

593
00:12:24.280 --> 00:12:25.179
the turning of the.

594
00:12:25.409 --> 00:12:26.690
Democratic Party against Israel

595
00:12:26.890 --> 00:12:27.789
and generally speaking,

596
00:12:28.130 --> 00:12:28.640
uh,

597
00:12:28.650 --> 00:12:30.140
interests aligned with Jews,

598
00:12:30.440 --> 00:12:30.609
uh,

599
00:12:30.690 --> 00:12:30.940
but,

600
00:12:30.969 --> 00:12:31.219
uh,

601
00:12:31.640 --> 00:12:31.770
you know,

602
00:12:31.890 --> 00:12:33.200
I guess it's kind of a big reason

603
00:12:33.429 --> 00:12:33.440
there.

604
00:12:33.450 --> 00:12:37.000
Rahm Emanuel Andy Bashir is the Kentucky governor.

605
00:12:37.429 --> 00:12:37.450
Uh,

606
00:12:37.609 --> 00:12:38.489
JB Pritzker,

607
00:12:38.809 --> 00:12:40.469
I mean JB Pritzker is not gonna win that nomination.

608
00:12:40.729 --> 00:12:41.900
West West Moore is another one,

609
00:12:42.049 --> 00:12:43.710
and there's an interesting value there on West,

610
00:12:43.809 --> 00:12:44.590
on West Moore,

611
00:12:45.229 --> 00:12:45.239
uh,

612
00:12:45.330 --> 00:12:47.229
as I think he probably will run.

613
00:12:47.830 --> 00:12:47.840
Uh,

614
00:12:47.890 --> 00:12:50.010
he's another guy I have a position on to win his

615
00:12:50.010 --> 00:12:51.929
race here even though there's not a ton of profit there.

616
00:12:52.200 --> 00:12:53.250
He's basically a sure thing,

617
00:12:53.289 --> 00:12:53.450
I think,

618
00:12:53.460 --> 00:12:54.010
in Maryland.

619
00:12:54.340 --> 00:12:54.429
Uh,

620
00:12:54.450 --> 00:12:55.030
Rona,

621
00:12:55.739 --> 00:12:56.070
after Sayed,

622
00:12:56.159 --> 00:12:56.309
yeah,

623
00:12:56.549 --> 00:12:57.299
I don't think that's happening.

624
00:12:57.630 --> 00:12:57.940
Tallarico,

625
00:12:58.030 --> 00:12:58.150
OK,

626
00:12:58.260 --> 00:12:59.159
we're down to basically,

627
00:12:59.229 --> 00:12:59.380
uh,

628
00:12:59.390 --> 00:12:59.750
no one.

629
00:13:01.109 --> 00:13:03.150
I wanna bring something up about this particular market.

630
00:13:04.559 --> 00:13:05.880
And this is a key thing to understand

631
00:13:06.340 --> 00:13:06.719
about this market.

632
00:13:06.799 --> 00:13:08.090
It's probably the most popular market.

633
00:13:08.309 --> 00:13:08.609
Did they,

634
00:13:08.840 --> 00:13:09.890
what do you have a volume number on that?

635
00:13:09.969 --> 00:13:10.489
I don't know if that's,

636
00:13:10.570 --> 00:13:11.609
that's on that screen or not,

637
00:13:11.690 --> 00:13:12.049
um,

638
00:13:12.210 --> 00:13:13.130
that we were just looking at.

639
00:13:13.409 --> 00:13:16.039
How much money goes into the presidential nominations markets,

640
00:13:16.049 --> 00:13:16.440
tons.

641
00:13:16.650 --> 00:13:17.340
If you wanna give me

642
00:13:17.929 --> 00:13:19.349
178 million so far,

643
00:13:19.489 --> 00:13:19.849
OK,

644
00:13:20.090 --> 00:13:20.169
uh,

645
00:13:20.289 --> 00:13:22.210
give me the 2028 presidential election winner.

646
00:13:22.289 --> 00:13:22.880
This is the,

647
00:13:22.919 --> 00:13:23.359
uh,

648
00:13:23.450 --> 00:13:23.919
this is,

649
00:13:23.969 --> 00:13:24.520
I don't know if it's,

650
00:13:24.530 --> 00:13:24.640
uh,

651
00:13:24.719 --> 00:13:26.000
is it person or is it party,

652
00:13:26.090 --> 00:13:26.289
uh,

653
00:13:26.409 --> 00:13:27.109
this next market.

654
00:13:27.599 --> 00:13:27.770
Uh,

655
00:13:27.849 --> 00:13:28.729
it is person.

656
00:13:28.849 --> 00:13:28.960
Uh,

657
00:13:29.049 --> 00:13:29.710
so the favorite

658
00:13:29.849 --> 00:13:30.669
of all people

659
00:13:30.880 --> 00:13:31.849
would be JD Vance,

660
00:13:31.950 --> 00:13:32.530
#1,

661
00:13:32.809 --> 00:13:33.409
Marco Rubio,

662
00:13:33.450 --> 00:13:34.049
#2,

663
00:13:34.130 --> 00:13:36.489
which is interesting that two Republicans would lead this in a,

664
00:13:36.530 --> 00:13:36.900
in a,

665
00:13:37.250 --> 00:13:37.650
in a race.

666
00:13:37.690 --> 00:13:40.049
I think overall they're probably the slight underdogs in,

667
00:13:40.320 --> 00:13:40.570
uh,

668
00:13:40.729 --> 00:13:42.239
Gavin Newsom at 11%,

669
00:13:42.489 --> 00:13:42.599
uh,

670
00:13:42.650 --> 00:13:43.030
and it goes down.

671
00:13:43.130 --> 00:13:44.450
Any other Republicans on that list,

672
00:13:44.530 --> 00:13:44.650
I,

673
00:13:44.770 --> 00:13:44.929
I,

674
00:13:45.210 --> 00:13:47.080
JD Vance and Marco Rubio are kind of the two top,

675
00:13:47.090 --> 00:13:47.520
uh,

676
00:13:47.530 --> 00:13:48.960
people that are being considered.

677
00:13:49.210 --> 00:13:50.669
The next Republican

678
00:13:50.969 --> 00:13:53.020
is Rhonda Santis at like 3%,

679
00:13:53.169 --> 00:13:53.409
so.

680
00:13:53.880 --> 00:13:54.349
That is,

681
00:13:54.400 --> 00:13:54.630
uh,

682
00:13:54.760 --> 00:13:55.789
then you have Donald Trump,

683
00:13:56.159 --> 00:13:58.919
who would have to amend the Constitution to win,

684
00:13:59.000 --> 00:14:00.179
but he's there at 3%.

685
00:14:00.640 --> 00:14:00.760
Uh,

686
00:14:00.799 --> 00:14:01.630
I actually have a,

687
00:14:02.080 --> 00:14:02.989
I have a few shares of it.

688
00:14:03.039 --> 00:14:04.020
I gotta be honest with you.

689
00:14:04.559 --> 00:14:05.349
My guess is,

690
00:14:05.479 --> 00:14:06.750
once we get past this midterms,

691
00:14:06.960 --> 00:14:08.799
Trump at least floats it a few times,

692
00:14:08.869 --> 00:14:09.400
and when he does,

693
00:14:09.479 --> 00:14:10.780
it's gonna shoot up to 5%,

694
00:14:11.159 --> 00:14:12.119
and I'm going to cash out.

695
00:14:12.239 --> 00:14:14.020
That's just something I'm just telling you right now.

696
00:14:14.119 --> 00:14:15.219
I don't know if that's true.

697
00:14:15.440 --> 00:14:17.520
I'm just telling you right now it's going to be a fun trade

698
00:14:17.520 --> 00:14:20.700
to watch because he can't constitutionally be president for a third term.

699
00:14:21.700 --> 00:14:23.419
I wouldn't put it past him to try.

700
00:14:23.940 --> 00:14:24.059
You know,

701
00:14:24.179 --> 00:14:24.299
just,

702
00:14:24.380 --> 00:14:25.099
just to float it,

703
00:14:25.200 --> 00:14:25.900
just to kind of make,

704
00:14:26.020 --> 00:14:27.489
make the media a little nervous.

705
00:14:27.780 --> 00:14:28.500
I think that'll happen.

706
00:14:28.599 --> 00:14:28.919
Anyway,

707
00:14:29.130 --> 00:14:29.299
uh,

708
00:14:29.500 --> 00:14:29.580
again,

709
00:14:29.700 --> 00:14:30.210
how much is that,

710
00:14:30.219 --> 00:14:31.010
and I missed the,

711
00:14:31.020 --> 00:14:31.260
um,

712
00:14:31.340 --> 00:14:31.530
uh,

713
00:14:31.539 --> 00:14:32.500
volume in that market,

714
00:14:32.580 --> 00:14:32.780
Adam,

715
00:14:32.859 --> 00:14:33.299
do you have that?

716
00:14:33.380 --> 00:14:33.559
Or

717
00:14:34.140 --> 00:14:35.169
59 million to,

718
00:14:35.260 --> 00:14:36.340
to for the who's gonna win there.

719
00:14:36.450 --> 00:14:37.570
Plus you have the party version.

720
00:14:37.770 --> 00:14:38.020
Anyway,

721
00:14:38.130 --> 00:14:39.200
these are the most popular

722
00:14:39.659 --> 00:14:41.039
pres uh markets

723
00:14:41.260 --> 00:14:44.619
when it comes to politics on Calci and Polymarket and predicted and everywhere.

724
00:14:45.270 --> 00:14:46.619
And the reason for that is,

725
00:14:46.630 --> 00:14:48.309
it's kind of the thing we talk about the most.

726
00:14:48.349 --> 00:14:48.580
It's like,

727
00:14:48.590 --> 00:14:50.039
who's gonna win the Super Bowl this year,

728
00:14:50.309 --> 00:14:52.729
is a lot more popular of a conversation than

729
00:14:52.830 --> 00:14:53.530
who's gonna win

730
00:14:53.869 --> 00:14:55.349
in week 6 in Jacksonville,

731
00:14:55.460 --> 00:14:55.590
right?

732
00:14:55.630 --> 00:14:56.229
Like that's just,

733
00:14:56.309 --> 00:14:57.770
it's just the truth of the matter.

734
00:14:58.229 --> 00:14:58.650
And

735
00:14:59.530 --> 00:15:01.330
As an investor in these markets though,

736
00:15:01.450 --> 00:15:03.309
you really have to think about,

737
00:15:03.599 --> 00:15:04.270
um,

738
00:15:04.349 --> 00:15:04.950
uh,

739
00:15:05.289 --> 00:15:06.989
whether it's worth your money

740
00:15:07.250 --> 00:15:08.559
to get into a market like this.

741
00:15:08.770 --> 00:15:10.049
You want to put a marker position in,

742
00:15:10.090 --> 00:15:11.789
the smallest position that we have to kind of like

743
00:15:12.010 --> 00:15:12.289
put your,

744
00:15:12.489 --> 00:15:13.280
put your opinion in,

745
00:15:13.489 --> 00:15:13.789
fine.

746
00:15:14.330 --> 00:15:14.770
Um,

747
00:15:15.010 --> 00:15:16.409
there are things you can do in these markets.

748
00:15:16.450 --> 00:15:17.369
I'll talk about them here in a second,

749
00:15:17.460 --> 00:15:19.770
but it comes back to one of our constitutional amendments,

750
00:15:19.809 --> 00:15:20.859
and that constitutional amendment,

751
00:15:20.929 --> 00:15:21.289
of course,

752
00:15:21.409 --> 00:15:22.929
the number of that is very,

753
00:15:23.030 --> 00:15:24.270
very easy to remember,

754
00:15:24.520 --> 00:15:25.500
and I always do remember.

755
00:15:25.570 --> 00:15:27.270
That's one of the things that I do all the time.

756
00:15:28.190 --> 00:15:30.070
I remember which number this is,

757
00:15:30.390 --> 00:15:31.239
of course,

758
00:15:31.599 --> 00:15:32.179
as I

759
00:15:32.479 --> 00:15:32.929
fill

760
00:15:33.080 --> 00:15:33.679
and fill,

761
00:15:33.880 --> 00:15:34.599
what the heck is it?

762
00:15:34.630 --> 00:15:34.929
It's one of,

763
00:15:35.080 --> 00:15:36.020
I know it's on here.

764
00:15:36.309 --> 00:15:36.989
Um,

765
00:15:37.039 --> 00:15:38.309
it's not time equals risk.

766
00:15:38.679 --> 00:15:39.179
It is,

767
00:15:39.320 --> 00:15:39.599
ah,

768
00:15:39.719 --> 00:15:40.500
number 7.

769
00:15:42.070 --> 00:15:43.500
The Seventh Amendment to the

770
00:15:44.479 --> 00:15:45.280
I'm very well prepared.

771
00:15:45.359 --> 00:15:48.880
The Seventh Amendment to the predictable Constitution is know your APR

772
00:15:49.330 --> 00:15:49.739
and,

773
00:15:49.809 --> 00:15:50.260
uh,

774
00:15:50.340 --> 00:15:50.750
it is,

775
00:15:50.799 --> 00:15:51.179
uh,

776
00:15:51.200 --> 00:15:52.320
it's really difficult,

777
00:15:52.359 --> 00:15:52.789
honestly,

778
00:15:52.799 --> 00:15:53.260
to know

779
00:15:53.520 --> 00:15:55.559
something that's gonna happen in 2 years anyway.

780
00:15:55.599 --> 00:15:57.219
It's hard to predict out 2 years.

781
00:15:57.390 --> 00:15:58.700
This is a difficult,

782
00:15:58.710 --> 00:15:58.859
difficult

783
00:15:59.039 --> 00:15:59.299
race,

784
00:15:59.309 --> 00:16:01.080
and if you think about what would happen in a race like this,

785
00:16:01.159 --> 00:16:01.940
let's say you pick

786
00:16:02.400 --> 00:16:03.239
JD Vance.

787
00:16:03.440 --> 00:16:04.460
He's at 19%

788
00:16:04.799 --> 00:16:05.909
to win the election.

789
00:16:06.119 --> 00:16:07.369
That doesn't pay out

790
00:16:07.719 --> 00:16:08.260
until

791
00:16:08.760 --> 00:16:10.599
probably November 2028.

792
00:16:11.150 --> 00:16:12.260
So now you're talking about,

793
00:16:12.349 --> 00:16:13.299
if you're right,

794
00:16:13.669 --> 00:16:14.049
getting,

795
00:16:14.390 --> 00:16:16.419
even if everything goes perfectly with that investment,

796
00:16:16.669 --> 00:16:18.469
you're getting 80% over two years,

797
00:16:18.549 --> 00:16:19.489
which is good,

798
00:16:19.630 --> 00:16:20.729
it's a good return.

799
00:16:21.229 --> 00:16:21.820
However,

800
00:16:21.989 --> 00:16:22.830
there's a lot of risk there.

801
00:16:22.909 --> 00:16:25.429
You have actual challengers like a Marco Rubio who could.

802
00:16:25.510 --> 00:16:25.619
I,

803
00:16:25.710 --> 00:16:28.190
I think Vance is a much better value than Rubio,

804
00:16:28.270 --> 00:16:28.469
uh,

805
00:16:28.590 --> 00:16:28.989
personally.

806
00:16:29.030 --> 00:16:31.070
I think Vance is gonna be the more likely candidate.

807
00:16:31.429 --> 00:16:31.590
Um,

808
00:16:31.669 --> 00:16:31.969
but

809
00:16:32.109 --> 00:16:32.580
even you,

810
00:16:32.669 --> 00:16:33.580
you have to get them there.

811
00:16:33.869 --> 00:16:36.210
It won't get up to probably 50%

812
00:16:36.590 --> 00:16:36.969
until

813
00:16:37.429 --> 00:16:39.090
the summer of 2028.

814
00:16:39.609 --> 00:16:40.010
So you,

815
00:16:40.090 --> 00:16:40.760
you've got a,

816
00:16:41.130 --> 00:16:41.289
that,

817
00:16:41.309 --> 00:16:41.320
that,

818
00:16:41.369 --> 00:16:42.119
that range,

819
00:16:42.169 --> 00:16:42.450
which is,

820
00:16:42.570 --> 00:16:42.690
you know,

821
00:16:42.770 --> 00:16:44.510
30 points and it would be a good return,

822
00:16:45.130 --> 00:16:45.369
is,

823
00:16:45.450 --> 00:16:45.640
is,

824
00:16:45.690 --> 00:16:47.250
is spread out by time.

825
00:16:48.070 --> 00:16:48.750
You have that.

826
00:16:49.109 --> 00:16:50.250
Then you have all the risks of,

827
00:16:50.429 --> 00:16:50.750
who knows,

828
00:16:50.830 --> 00:16:51.909
could be a Democratic year,

829
00:16:52.049 --> 00:16:52.570
uh,

830
00:16:52.789 --> 00:16:54.330
JD Vance could decide not to run,

831
00:16:54.830 --> 00:16:55.210
uh,

832
00:16:55.349 --> 00:16:56.549
another Republican could run.

833
00:16:56.869 --> 00:16:59.830
Donald Trump Junior might jump in and Donald Trump might endorse him.

834
00:17:00.059 --> 00:17:01.669
There's 100 different things that could happen,

835
00:17:01.780 --> 00:17:03.760
so it's a risky market to get in in the first place,

836
00:17:04.030 --> 00:17:07.079
and really the way to play those markets is kind of like the ups and downs of it,

837
00:17:07.270 --> 00:17:07.868
if you want to get,

838
00:17:07.910 --> 00:17:08.089
uh,

839
00:17:08.098 --> 00:17:08.540
intricate.

840
00:17:08.709 --> 00:17:10.030
The only other way I would say is if you,

841
00:17:10.108 --> 00:17:10.310
if you,

842
00:17:10.390 --> 00:17:13.890
if there's a long shot on that list who really kind of checks the box for you.

843
00:17:14.288 --> 00:17:14.928
Uh,

844
00:17:15.048 --> 00:17:16.108
that's something to consider.

845
00:17:16.288 --> 00:17:19.928
If you have somebody at 1% that you think might go to 5% and you can kind of get out of it,

846
00:17:20.188 --> 00:17:20.398
uh,

847
00:17:20.499 --> 00:17:20.749
or,

848
00:17:20.808 --> 00:17:21.009
uh,

849
00:17:21.229 --> 00:17:21.438
or,

850
00:17:21.489 --> 00:17:22.878
or something of that nature,

851
00:17:23.009 --> 00:17:23.328
that's good.

852
00:17:23.448 --> 00:17:25.909
And I would just say taking the no position on these people

853
00:17:26.288 --> 00:17:27.029
is in a way

854
00:17:27.438 --> 00:17:27.788
worse.

855
00:17:27.888 --> 00:17:29.249
I have no positions cause I,

856
00:17:29.328 --> 00:17:31.208
they're basically marker positions or small positions.

857
00:17:32.229 --> 00:17:32.510
I'm sorry,

858
00:17:32.550 --> 00:17:33.400
my voice is uh

859
00:17:33.630 --> 00:17:34.609
cracking a little bit here.

860
00:17:36.290 --> 00:17:37.270
Uh,

861
00:17:37.489 --> 00:17:37.689
there's no,

862
00:17:37.930 --> 00:17:39.109
if you take a no position on

863
00:17:39.510 --> 00:17:39.930
JD Vance,

864
00:17:40.050 --> 00:17:40.250
he's like,

865
00:17:40.290 --> 00:17:40.510
you know what,

866
00:17:40.569 --> 00:17:42.219
I think it's gonna be Marco Rubio or a Democrat.

867
00:17:42.609 --> 00:17:43.369
You might win that,

868
00:17:43.689 --> 00:17:43.920
but again,

869
00:17:43.930 --> 00:17:45.430
you're talking about 2 years,

870
00:17:46.050 --> 00:17:46.209
uh,

871
00:17:46.410 --> 00:17:46.890
and getting it,

872
00:17:47.050 --> 00:17:47.449
you know,

873
00:17:47.569 --> 00:17:47.760
uh,

874
00:17:47.810 --> 00:17:49.729
25% return in 2 years.

875
00:17:49.810 --> 00:17:50.270
And

876
00:17:50.510 --> 00:17:50.849
look,

877
00:17:51.660 --> 00:17:55.209
If you're talking about comparing that to a traditional investment,

878
00:17:55.390 --> 00:17:58.489
if you're talking about comparing that to your savings account,

879
00:17:58.709 --> 00:17:59.390
it's wonderful.

880
00:18:00.010 --> 00:18:02.589
If you're talking about doing what you can do here

881
00:18:02.930 --> 00:18:03.670
in

882
00:18:03.810 --> 00:18:04.959
the elections coming up,

883
00:18:05.130 --> 00:18:06.589
in a primary next week,

884
00:18:06.770 --> 00:18:06.979
in a,

885
00:18:07.050 --> 00:18:07.329
in a,

886
00:18:07.410 --> 00:18:07.640
in a,

887
00:18:07.680 --> 00:18:09.250
in a close to a sure thing that's a,

888
00:18:09.390 --> 00:18:09.689
that's,

889
00:18:09.810 --> 00:18:10.089
you know,

890
00:18:10.239 --> 00:18:11.390
resolving in a month,

891
00:18:12.420 --> 00:18:12.430
uh,

892
00:18:12.449 --> 00:18:12.650
your,

893
00:18:12.729 --> 00:18:15.589
your capital can probably be utilized in a better way.

894
00:18:15.729 --> 00:18:18.219
It's the most fun to predict the 2028 election.

895
00:18:18.449 --> 00:18:19.890
It's not the best investment,

896
00:18:20.099 --> 00:18:20.869
uh,

897
00:18:20.890 --> 00:18:21.599
to get involved yet.

898
00:18:22.520 --> 00:18:25.369
You will have plenty of time to use your capital and put it into those markets.

899
00:18:25.609 --> 00:18:26.040
Right now,

900
00:18:26.170 --> 00:18:28.829
keep your position small there cause you just don't want to tie up all your money

901
00:18:29.170 --> 00:18:31.869
on something that you're not gonna get paid off for for multiple years.

902
00:18:32.089 --> 00:18:32.209
Uh,

903
00:18:32.280 --> 00:18:33.250
one last thing before we leave,

904
00:18:33.329 --> 00:18:33.709
this is,

905
00:18:33.719 --> 00:18:34.380
uh,

906
00:18:34.390 --> 00:18:35.270
entertaining to me.

907
00:18:36.270 --> 00:18:37.609
I don't know anything about I.

908
00:18:39.689 --> 00:18:40.930
I don't know anything about this person.

909
00:18:41.089 --> 00:18:42.209
I don't know anything about this story,

910
00:18:42.329 --> 00:18:43.030
but I think it's funny.

911
00:18:43.250 --> 00:18:43.410
Uh,

912
00:18:43.530 --> 00:18:44.469
clavicular,

913
00:18:44.770 --> 00:18:44.969
you're,

914
00:18:45.010 --> 00:18:45.270
of course,

915
00:18:45.300 --> 00:18:45.760
a huge fan,

916
00:18:45.810 --> 00:18:46.270
I know,

917
00:18:46.439 --> 00:18:46.890
uh.

918
00:18:47.839 --> 00:18:49.550
He heard AOC broke up with his,

919
00:18:49.589 --> 00:18:49.780
uh,

920
00:18:49.869 --> 00:18:50.989
her fiance,

921
00:18:51.550 --> 00:18:52.920
and it tweeted this,

922
00:18:53.030 --> 00:18:54.010
I can fix her,

923
00:18:54.390 --> 00:18:54.800
uh,

924
00:18:55.250 --> 00:18:55.530
which is,

925
00:18:55.630 --> 00:18:56.109
I don't know,

926
00:18:56.260 --> 00:18:58.109
he's some internet personality if you don't know.

927
00:18:58.390 --> 00:18:58.510
Uh,

928
00:18:58.550 --> 00:19:01.050
she broke up with her boyfriend or her fiance,

929
00:19:01.270 --> 00:19:02.589
and then he's stepping in and saying,

930
00:19:02.709 --> 00:19:02.829
look,

931
00:19:02.949 --> 00:19:04.050
give me a shot at this.

932
00:19:04.709 --> 00:19:08.229
The reason why I bring this up is because Polly Market has listed market on this.

933
00:19:08.829 --> 00:19:13.510
Will Clavicular and AOC confirm a relationship in 2026?

934
00:19:13.630 --> 00:19:14.339
Not looking good,

935
00:19:14.550 --> 00:19:15.069
honestly,

936
00:19:15.079 --> 00:19:16.739
for Clavicular in this one.

937
00:19:16.989 --> 00:19:18.030
He's at 2%,

938
00:19:18.060 --> 00:19:18.750
actually like,

939
00:19:18.760 --> 00:19:19.250
really,

940
00:19:19.790 --> 00:19:20.060
just,

941
00:19:20.069 --> 00:19:20.510
uh,

942
00:19:20.589 --> 00:19:21.569
around 2%,

943
00:19:22.030 --> 00:19:22.910
a 2% chance,

944
00:19:22.949 --> 00:19:24.250
and it's down 1 cent.

945
00:19:24.510 --> 00:19:24.790
So,

946
00:19:25.010 --> 00:19:25.209
again,

947
00:19:25.550 --> 00:19:27.689
another investment I would not necessarily recommend,

948
00:19:28.199 --> 00:19:28.880
uh,

949
00:19:28.890 --> 00:19:29.180
because,

950
00:19:29.189 --> 00:19:29.689
uh,

951
00:19:29.790 --> 00:19:31.349
but I think the no is a pretty sure thing there.

952
00:19:31.390 --> 00:19:31.670
I would be,

953
00:19:31.750 --> 00:19:32.239
we'd be,

954
00:19:32.420 --> 00:19:33.050
I will say.

955
00:19:33.719 --> 00:19:34.910
Crazier things have happened,

956
00:19:35.060 --> 00:19:37.589
but I would be legitimately surprised

957
00:19:37.829 --> 00:19:38.540
if that one

958
00:19:38.670 --> 00:19:39.729
wound up becoming

959
00:19:39.869 --> 00:19:40.369
a yes.

960
00:19:40.510 --> 00:19:40.819
OK,

961
00:19:40.989 --> 00:19:41.589
we're gonna take a break.

962
00:19:41.709 --> 00:19:44.229
I have Pat Gray coming up in just a moment.

963
00:19:44.310 --> 00:19:46.189
Don't forget to join us at predictableShow.com.

964
00:19:46.270 --> 00:19:47.310
We have a live stream of the show.

965
00:19:47.550 --> 00:19:49.250
We actually do the taping of the show live,

966
00:19:49.349 --> 00:19:49.540
uh,

967
00:19:49.550 --> 00:19:49.750
to,

968
00:19:49.790 --> 00:19:50.239
uh,

969
00:19:50.270 --> 00:19:51.109
everybody on SubStack.

970
00:19:51.430 --> 00:19:51.579
Uh,

971
00:19:51.630 --> 00:19:52.750
if you are a premium member,

972
00:19:52.790 --> 00:19:53.630
it's free right now though,

973
00:19:53.670 --> 00:19:54.650
if you wanna go check that out,

974
00:19:54.709 --> 00:19:55.979
and you can see what kind of Goes on behind

975
00:19:55.979 --> 00:19:57.739
the scenes and the commercials that we get prepared,

976
00:19:58.020 --> 00:19:58.300
um,

977
00:19:58.430 --> 00:19:58.609
uh,

978
00:19:58.660 --> 00:19:58.770
you,

979
00:19:58.819 --> 00:19:59.770
you get to kind of see,

980
00:19:59.819 --> 00:20:00.160
uh,

981
00:20:00.260 --> 00:20:01.099
everything that's going on,

982
00:20:01.380 --> 00:20:01.660
and,

983
00:20:01.729 --> 00:20:02.170
uh,

984
00:20:02.260 --> 00:20:03.819
you can join and see all those pics,

985
00:20:03.829 --> 00:20:03.849
uh,

986
00:20:03.859 --> 00:20:04.280
that I have.

987
00:20:04.380 --> 00:20:06.380
Many of them are stupid pics for 2028,

988
00:20:06.420 --> 00:20:08.050
even though I just told you it was a terrible investment.

989
00:20:08.099 --> 00:20:08.619
I still,

990
00:20:08.939 --> 00:20:09.500
I can't resist.

991
00:20:09.540 --> 00:20:10.979
It's just fun and it's interesting to me,

992
00:20:11.079 --> 00:20:11.339
so

993
00:20:11.459 --> 00:20:12.939
I still will jump in a little bit,

994
00:20:13.020 --> 00:20:15.869
but your capital can do a better job probably in another market.

995
00:20:16.020 --> 00:20:16.219
OK,

996
00:20:16.380 --> 00:20:16.699
take a break,

997
00:20:16.810 --> 00:20:17.300
back in a second.

998
00:20:27.979 --> 00:20:28.939
I'm joined now by the one,

999
00:20:28.979 --> 00:20:29.479
the only

1000
00:20:29.630 --> 00:20:30.260
Pat Gray,

1001
00:20:30.380 --> 00:20:35.280
host of Pat Gray Unleashed on Blaze TV and purveyor of all deliciousness

1002
00:20:35.500 --> 00:20:36.640
with Keexie cookies.

1003
00:20:36.859 --> 00:20:38.260
You can check that out at kexie.com,

1004
00:20:38.339 --> 00:20:39.479
the best cookies you're ever gonna eat.

1005
00:20:39.819 --> 00:20:40.180
Pat Gray,

1006
00:20:40.280 --> 00:20:41.099
thanks so much for coming on the program.

1007
00:20:41.219 --> 00:20:41.949
Great to be here.

1008
00:20:42.099 --> 00:20:42.369
Thank you,

1009
00:20:42.469 --> 00:20:42.719
Stu.

1010
00:20:42.810 --> 00:20:44.060
I'm really excited that you're here.

1011
00:20:44.219 --> 00:20:44.619
Me too.

1012
00:20:44.739 --> 00:20:44.979
Um,

1013
00:20:45.140 --> 00:20:45.339
yeah,

1014
00:20:45.939 --> 00:20:47.319
because I have a lot of questions for you.

1015
00:20:47.780 --> 00:20:47.839
Uh,

1016
00:20:47.900 --> 00:20:48.020
you know,

1017
00:20:48.060 --> 00:20:48.109
we,

1018
00:20:48.180 --> 00:20:48.579
we do this,

1019
00:20:48.660 --> 00:20:50.500
this show is about prediction markets.

1020
00:20:50.579 --> 00:20:51.579
We talk about prediction markets.

1021
00:20:51.619 --> 00:20:52.300
What do they tell us?

1022
00:20:52.380 --> 00:20:53.380
What can we learn from them,

1023
00:20:53.449 --> 00:20:53.640
uh,

1024
00:20:53.770 --> 00:20:53.939
you know,

1025
00:20:54.099 --> 00:20:55.660
is there any value in any of these markets?

1026
00:20:55.969 --> 00:20:57.630
And I've been watching your show

1027
00:20:58.569 --> 00:20:58.890
and you know,

1028
00:20:58.969 --> 00:21:01.150
for over the years we've occasionally had

1029
00:21:01.609 --> 00:21:02.670
what they call bugs

1030
00:21:02.880 --> 00:21:03.579
on the screen.

1031
00:21:03.849 --> 00:21:04.170
Um,

1032
00:21:04.270 --> 00:21:04.989
uh,

1033
00:21:05.369 --> 00:21:05.890
this is a,

1034
00:21:06.000 --> 00:21:06.130
you know,

1035
00:21:06.199 --> 00:21:08.010
a little TV thing that we do and like it'll be like

1036
00:21:08.010 --> 00:21:09.969
if there's an important thing and we're counting down the days,

1037
00:21:10.040 --> 00:21:10.170
you know,

1038
00:21:10.239 --> 00:21:11.329
55 days to the election,

1039
00:21:11.410 --> 00:21:12.369
85 days to the election,

1040
00:21:12.410 --> 00:21:12.630
or,

1041
00:21:13.010 --> 00:21:13.130
you know,

1042
00:21:13.209 --> 00:21:14.910
this thing's been going on for this time

1043
00:21:15.410 --> 00:21:16.910
and I'm watching your show and I've noticed

1044
00:21:17.329 --> 00:21:21.630
you have a little bug in your screen now in the corner of basically every broadcast,

1045
00:21:23.089 --> 00:21:25.329
which just says where's Mitch McConnell.

1046
00:21:26.650 --> 00:21:27.010
Well,

1047
00:21:27.130 --> 00:21:27.790
it is now,

1048
00:21:28.050 --> 00:21:28.760
uh,

1049
00:21:29.089 --> 00:21:31.989
day 61 of America held hostage

1050
00:21:32.439 --> 00:21:33.670
by Mitch McConnell,

1051
00:21:33.770 --> 00:21:34.420
and,

1052
00:21:34.500 --> 00:21:35.130
uh,

1053
00:21:35.270 --> 00:21:35.420
I'm,

1054
00:21:36.170 --> 00:21:37.160
I'm a little tired of it,

1055
00:21:37.209 --> 00:21:37.650
frankly.

1056
00:21:37.729 --> 00:21:38.119
I,

1057
00:21:38.449 --> 00:21:38.829
it's

1058
00:21:39.079 --> 00:21:40.630
inconceivable to me.

1059
00:21:41.479 --> 00:21:43.380
It's inconceivable that we know

1060
00:21:43.569 --> 00:21:44.150
really

1061
00:21:44.329 --> 00:21:44.869
nothing

1062
00:21:45.209 --> 00:21:45.750
about

1063
00:21:46.369 --> 00:21:47.790
his health status,

1064
00:21:48.369 --> 00:21:48.989
when he's coming,

1065
00:21:49.130 --> 00:21:50.229
if he's coming back,

1066
00:21:50.290 --> 00:21:51.410
we don't know any of it.

1067
00:21:51.890 --> 00:21:53.329
It's really strange,

1068
00:21:53.369 --> 00:21:54.560
and this is a guy obviously,

1069
00:21:54.729 --> 00:21:54.890
you know,

1070
00:21:54.930 --> 00:21:55.369
in leadership,

1071
00:21:55.430 --> 00:21:57.959
we're we're talking about for the country's purposes here,

1072
00:21:57.969 --> 00:21:58.349
having

1073
00:21:58.609 --> 00:22:02.349
your senators show up to work is an important thing,

1074
00:22:03.130 --> 00:22:03.319
uh,

1075
00:22:03.369 --> 00:22:03.650
that we,

1076
00:22:03.770 --> 00:22:03.890
we,

1077
00:22:04.010 --> 00:22:04.589
that we might

1078
00:22:05.089 --> 00:22:05.380
demand

1079
00:22:06.180 --> 00:22:07.880
as voters and citizens,

1080
00:22:08.209 --> 00:22:09.709
and we talked about this back in the day,

1081
00:22:09.729 --> 00:22:10.199
uh,

1082
00:22:10.270 --> 00:22:11.569
I remember us talking about it,

1083
00:22:11.770 --> 00:22:11.930
you know,

1084
00:22:12.010 --> 00:22:14.030
a couple of years ago when he had that weird

1085
00:22:14.530 --> 00:22:15.189
freeze.

1086
00:22:16.020 --> 00:22:17.369
And even at that time,

1087
00:22:17.380 --> 00:22:18.099
he should have been out.

1088
00:22:18.180 --> 00:22:18.939
He should have been out then.

1089
00:22:19.020 --> 00:22:19.180
I mean,

1090
00:22:19.339 --> 00:22:19.459
like,

1091
00:22:19.540 --> 00:22:20.040
look,

1092
00:22:20.699 --> 00:22:22.260
I have all the sympathy in the world for somebody

1093
00:22:22.260 --> 00:22:24.819
who's getting older and going through difficult health situations,

1094
00:22:24.859 --> 00:22:25.390
but like

1095
00:22:25.660 --> 00:22:26.459
this is not

1096
00:22:26.579 --> 00:22:28.219
the way a country is supposed to operate.

1097
00:22:28.280 --> 00:22:29.140
This is insanity.

1098
00:22:29.260 --> 00:22:29.540
I mean,

1099
00:22:29.739 --> 00:22:29.859
we,

1100
00:22:29.939 --> 00:22:32.780
we used to make fun of the Soviet Union for leaving these people

1101
00:22:32.780 --> 00:22:35.189
in office until they were 100 years old and couldn't do anything,

1102
00:22:35.219 --> 00:22:35.369
and,

1103
00:22:35.410 --> 00:22:35.650
and I,

1104
00:22:35.780 --> 00:22:37.599
we're just replicating this constantly.

1105
00:22:37.900 --> 00:22:38.170
Yeah,

1106
00:22:38.540 --> 00:22:39.180
we keep hearing.

1107
00:22:39.275 --> 00:22:40.064
The excuse that,

1108
00:22:40.155 --> 00:22:40.354
oh,

1109
00:22:40.464 --> 00:22:40.635
well,

1110
00:22:40.714 --> 00:22:42.785
he's older and he's,

1111
00:22:43.094 --> 00:22:44.974
he needs his privacy and

1112
00:22:45.234 --> 00:22:46.844
the man's a US senator.

1113
00:22:47.234 --> 00:22:51.094
Nobody is saying that all old people need to report to

1114
00:22:51.094 --> 00:22:54.494
the American people about how they're doing and how they're feeling,

1115
00:22:54.635 --> 00:22:56.094
and when they're going to go back to work.

1116
00:22:56.354 --> 00:22:59.484
I'm just kind of expecting that from a US senator.

1117
00:23:00.035 --> 00:23:02.214
And I guess it's too much to expect because

1118
00:23:02.939 --> 00:23:04.530
As much as we've asked,

1119
00:23:04.810 --> 00:23:07.020
even the governor of his state

1120
00:23:07.300 --> 00:23:08.729
has been demanding answers,

1121
00:23:09.060 --> 00:23:09.819
and they get none.

1122
00:23:10.430 --> 00:23:10.670
I mean,

1123
00:23:10.910 --> 00:23:11.650
supposedly

1124
00:23:11.989 --> 00:23:14.530
he's talked to Scott Jennings a few times and Scott

1125
00:23:14.530 --> 00:23:16.130
said again this week that he talked to him,

1126
00:23:16.630 --> 00:23:17.010
but

1127
00:23:17.349 --> 00:23:18.770
do we know that for a fact,

1128
00:23:18.839 --> 00:23:19.630
which is a weird situation.

1129
00:23:19.689 --> 00:23:20.349
I like Scott.

1130
00:23:20.390 --> 00:23:20.790
I do too,

1131
00:23:20.910 --> 00:23:21.109
you know,

1132
00:23:21.260 --> 00:23:21.670
he's,

1133
00:23:21.869 --> 00:23:22.780
he's a good guy,

1134
00:23:22.790 --> 00:23:22.949
and,

1135
00:23:23.030 --> 00:23:23.270
and I,

1136
00:23:23.310 --> 00:23:23.609
I,

1137
00:23:23.689 --> 00:23:26.069
I have no reason to doubt that what he's saying is true,

1138
00:23:26.150 --> 00:23:28.949
but it is strange that we have like one like

1139
00:23:28.949 --> 00:23:32.030
portal into this world that is just this guy who,

1140
00:23:32.189 --> 00:23:34.770
who's on CNN who just tells us everything's gonna be fine.

1141
00:23:34.939 --> 00:23:36.290
Even Scott has been saying,

1142
00:23:36.510 --> 00:23:36.949
well,

1143
00:23:37.030 --> 00:23:39.069
he values his privacy is all.

1144
00:23:39.280 --> 00:23:41.239
Men of that age do well

1145
00:23:41.719 --> 00:23:42.180
again,

1146
00:23:43.069 --> 00:23:43.719
US Senator,

1147
00:23:44.270 --> 00:23:44.650
OK,

1148
00:23:44.920 --> 00:23:45.819
I don't care how

1149
00:23:46.400 --> 00:23:48.109
valuable your privacy is,

1150
00:23:48.300 --> 00:23:49.939
you're not entitled to it.

1151
00:23:50.469 --> 00:23:51.709
In this particular case,

1152
00:23:51.760 --> 00:23:53.180
we need to know how he's doing

1153
00:23:53.560 --> 00:23:54.949
and if he's coming back,

1154
00:23:55.199 --> 00:23:55.349
you know,

1155
00:23:55.439 --> 00:23:57.760
we got the midterms coming up here pretty soon

1156
00:23:58.040 --> 00:23:59.719
and should probably know if,

1157
00:23:59.880 --> 00:24:00.430
uh,

1158
00:24:00.520 --> 00:24:00.949
you know,

1159
00:24:01.270 --> 00:24:01.780
who's,

1160
00:24:01.839 --> 00:24:04.390
if he's gonna fill out the term or what's gonna happen,

1161
00:24:04.479 --> 00:24:04.489
yeah,

1162
00:24:04.760 --> 00:24:07.900
because I don't remember what the rule is in Kentucky.

1163
00:24:08.250 --> 00:24:08.530
You know,

1164
00:24:08.650 --> 00:24:08.829
if,

1165
00:24:08.930 --> 00:24:11.589
if someone steps down and they've got a Democratic governor,

1166
00:24:12.050 --> 00:24:12.569
I don't remember.

1167
00:24:12.650 --> 00:24:18.359
Do you remember Kentucky apparently doesn't have the governor that's a senator.

1168
00:24:18.579 --> 00:24:18.650
I think they did that on election.

1169
00:24:18.660 --> 00:24:19.449
If I'm not mistaken,

1170
00:24:19.530 --> 00:24:20.510
I feel like they did that.

1171
00:24:20.939 --> 00:24:22.969
It was one state that did it recently where they were like,

1172
00:24:23.089 --> 00:24:23.369
OK,

1173
00:24:23.489 --> 00:24:24.849
I see that what's gonna happen here.

1174
00:24:24.930 --> 00:24:26.400
We better vote in new rules.

1175
00:24:26.699 --> 00:24:26.989
It might have been.

1176
00:24:27.089 --> 00:24:29.030
It might have been Kentucky if not it was somebody else.

1177
00:24:29.250 --> 00:24:29.369
Um,

1178
00:24:29.489 --> 00:24:30.520
there is a prediction market for this,

1179
00:24:30.569 --> 00:24:32.310
as there is pretty much for everything these days.

1180
00:24:32.520 --> 00:24:32.680
Uh,

1181
00:24:32.930 --> 00:24:33.770
will Mitch McConnell,

1182
00:24:33.849 --> 00:24:34.089
uh,

1183
00:24:34.290 --> 00:24:34.609
step down?

1184
00:24:34.689 --> 00:24:34.959
This is,

1185
00:24:34.969 --> 00:24:35.060
uh,

1186
00:24:35.119 --> 00:24:35.969
what it looks like right now,

1187
00:24:36.010 --> 00:24:36.729
and you kind of see.

1188
00:24:37.079 --> 00:24:38.459
It right after Trump's election,

1189
00:24:38.560 --> 00:24:40.739
it was up around the 45%

1190
00:24:40.849 --> 00:24:41.189
period,

1191
00:24:41.319 --> 00:24:44.239
held around between 15 and 25% for most of the time.

1192
00:24:44.560 --> 00:24:46.579
As the health things popped up recently,

1193
00:24:46.790 --> 00:24:48.339
it popped up to about 35%.

1194
00:24:48.560 --> 00:24:50.619
But right now it's at its low over the past

1195
00:24:50.800 --> 00:24:53.300
couple of years at about 7%.

1196
00:24:53.599 --> 00:24:57.750
And it's interesting because I've been getting this from people in Kentucky who,

1197
00:24:58.000 --> 00:24:59.430
when we've talked about this market,

1198
00:24:59.719 --> 00:25:00.500
they say,

1199
00:25:00.920 --> 00:25:01.880
I don't care what happens,

1200
00:25:01.949 --> 00:25:03.170
that man is not stepping down.

1201
00:25:03.500 --> 00:25:04.709
Like they don't believe they will,

1202
00:25:04.819 --> 00:25:06.520
they believe he will never give up power

1203
00:25:07.260 --> 00:25:07.859
by choice,

1204
00:25:08.060 --> 00:25:08.449
you know,

1205
00:25:08.699 --> 00:25:09.199
obviously,

1206
00:25:09.369 --> 00:25:09.729
uh,

1207
00:25:09.819 --> 00:25:10.020
you know,

1208
00:25:10.140 --> 00:25:12.219
there are health issues that he might not be able to overcome,

1209
00:25:12.290 --> 00:25:13.040
but he will never

1210
00:25:13.260 --> 00:25:14.540
willingly just step down.

1211
00:25:14.650 --> 00:25:14.780
Do you,

1212
00:25:14.890 --> 00:25:15.339
do you buy that?

1213
00:25:15.420 --> 00:25:15.500
I mean,

1214
00:25:15.540 --> 00:25:16.500
I think that.

1215
00:25:16.819 --> 00:25:18.020
I think that's probably accurate,

1216
00:25:18.089 --> 00:25:19.420
although he has said he's not.

1217
00:25:19.540 --> 00:25:19.810
I mean,

1218
00:25:20.060 --> 00:25:21.390
he's obviously not running,

1219
00:25:21.900 --> 00:25:25.079
so this will be it at the end of the year anyway,

1220
00:25:25.420 --> 00:25:27.219
but he's gonna try to play it out to the end of the year.

1221
00:25:27.380 --> 00:25:27.979
I think he is.

1222
00:25:28.099 --> 00:25:28.300
Yeah,

1223
00:25:28.500 --> 00:25:28.619
yeah,

1224
00:25:28.739 --> 00:25:29.219
I think he is.

1225
00:25:29.300 --> 00:25:30.260
Let me show you one funny thing.

1226
00:25:30.459 --> 00:25:30.579
I mean,

1227
00:25:30.680 --> 00:25:30.689
I,

1228
00:25:30.849 --> 00:25:31.020
it's not.

1229
00:25:31.222 --> 00:25:31.531
Funny.

1230
00:25:32.151 --> 00:25:33.592
But let me show you one funny thing

1231
00:25:33.712 --> 00:25:33.982
on this.

1232
00:25:34.031 --> 00:25:35.271
This is a Calci market,

1233
00:25:35.552 --> 00:25:36.751
and they want to make something very clear,

1234
00:25:36.952 --> 00:25:37.812
important information.

1235
00:25:37.871 --> 00:25:39.241
In the event of death,

1236
00:25:39.511 --> 00:25:43.472
the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death unless a such

1237
00:25:43.472 --> 00:25:44.982
a price is not available and logically

1238
00:25:44.982 --> 00:25:47.021
consistent or representative of fair settlement value,

1239
00:25:47.192 --> 00:25:50.171
in which case the exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.

1240
00:25:50.911 --> 00:25:51.651
They're basically like,

1241
00:25:51.791 --> 00:25:51.991
look,

1242
00:25:52.112 --> 00:25:52.771
we got it.

1243
00:25:52.942 --> 00:25:53.832
He might just die,

1244
00:25:53.952 --> 00:25:55.952
but don't be trying to,

1245
00:25:55.962 --> 00:25:56.541
uh,

1246
00:25:56.552 --> 00:25:58.791
figure out whether he's going to die because if he.

1247
00:25:59.014 --> 00:25:59.553
Gus,

1248
00:25:59.723 --> 00:26:02.364
we're not gonna pay out this contract just so you guys know.

1249
00:26:02.524 --> 00:26:04.563
So there's no prediction on whether or not he dies.

1250
00:26:04.683 --> 00:26:04.923
No,

1251
00:26:05.004 --> 00:26:06.274
they don't have any that that's that.

1252
00:26:06.323 --> 00:26:07.484
It's illegal anyway,

1253
00:26:07.604 --> 00:26:08.034
but,

1254
00:26:08.063 --> 00:26:08.443
um,

1255
00:26:08.683 --> 00:26:10.404
these markets don't allow any death markets.

1256
00:26:10.484 --> 00:26:13.784
There's some like international markets that occasionally will have more

1257
00:26:14.073 --> 00:26:15.114
controversial picks like that,

1258
00:26:15.163 --> 00:26:16.723
but anything US based doesn't have that.

1259
00:26:16.953 --> 00:26:17.394
But I mean that's,

1260
00:26:17.443 --> 00:26:18.723
it's a sad state of affairs.

1261
00:26:18.933 --> 00:26:19.313
It is.

1262
00:26:19.404 --> 00:26:20.303
And there are people who

1263
00:26:21.644 --> 00:26:23.303
believe he's dead already.

1264
00:26:23.484 --> 00:26:23.494
I

1265
00:26:23.823 --> 00:26:23.833
mean,

1266
00:26:23.963 --> 00:26:24.803
it's not funny,

1267
00:26:24.884 --> 00:26:26.484
but it kind of is.

1268
00:26:26.725 --> 00:26:27.135
Because

1269
00:26:27.336 --> 00:26:28.375
we shouldn't be going through this.

1270
00:26:28.456 --> 00:26:28.615
I mean,

1271
00:26:28.656 --> 00:26:31.406
this is Moittaba Khomeini material here.

1272
00:26:31.776 --> 00:26:34.276
They don't know if he's OK in Iran,

1273
00:26:34.536 --> 00:26:34.875
but

1274
00:26:35.056 --> 00:26:36.046
that's Iran.

1275
00:26:36.135 --> 00:26:37.696
This is the United States of America.

1276
00:26:37.776 --> 00:26:38.416
We should know.

1277
00:26:38.615 --> 00:26:38.816
It's,

1278
00:26:38.885 --> 00:26:39.046
it's,

1279
00:26:39.056 --> 00:26:39.176
uh,

1280
00:26:39.375 --> 00:26:40.855
and this is not just a senator,

1281
00:26:41.015 --> 00:26:41.145
right?

1282
00:26:41.215 --> 00:26:43.406
This was the Senate majority leader for a million years.

1283
00:26:43.475 --> 00:26:44.916
I get that he's not doing that anymore,

1284
00:26:45.495 --> 00:26:45.696
uh,

1285
00:26:45.816 --> 00:26:46.536
but still,

1286
00:26:46.645 --> 00:26:47.046
it is,

1287
00:26:47.176 --> 00:26:48.336
he's a very prominent guy.

1288
00:26:48.416 --> 00:26:48.936
He's very,

1289
00:26:49.056 --> 00:26:49.245
you know,

1290
00:26:49.336 --> 00:26:50.875
he still has a lot of influence,

1291
00:26:51.286 --> 00:26:53.495
and the fact that like we just don't know,

1292
00:26:53.576 --> 00:26:53.686
I,

1293
00:26:53.735 --> 00:26:53.796
I,

1294
00:26:54.015 --> 00:26:54.135
I.

1295
00:26:54.650 --> 00:26:54.859
Again,

1296
00:26:55.010 --> 00:26:56.329
we're not asking about his sex life here.

1297
00:26:56.729 --> 00:26:57.589
Can the guy think?

1298
00:26:57.660 --> 00:26:58.280
Can he move?

1299
00:26:58.500 --> 00:27:01.180
Can he come to work at any point in the next 6 months?

1300
00:27:01.489 --> 00:27:01.890
You know,

1301
00:27:02.099 --> 00:27:04.619
the reporter who's been there the whole time,

1302
00:27:04.699 --> 00:27:04.939
uh,

1303
00:27:05.089 --> 00:27:05.859
Desiree

1304
00:27:06.219 --> 00:27:06.689
something or other,

1305
00:27:06.739 --> 00:27:07.900
I don't remember her last name.

1306
00:27:08.329 --> 00:27:09.939
But she had word

1307
00:27:10.260 --> 00:27:13.209
it's probably a month ago or a month and a half ago that

1308
00:27:13.209 --> 00:27:17.859
he was actually comatose and brain dead and they were gonna pull the plug

1309
00:27:18.459 --> 00:27:20.579
that I think that turned out to be inaccurate.

1310
00:27:20.660 --> 00:27:24.680
I'm not positive of that because we have we don't gotten any proof,

1311
00:27:24.979 --> 00:27:25.459
but

1312
00:27:25.739 --> 00:27:27.540
I mean that's how dire

1313
00:27:28.060 --> 00:27:28.920
some of the,

1314
00:27:29.020 --> 00:27:29.800
uh,

1315
00:27:30.500 --> 00:27:32.800
predictions have been is that he's already gone.

1316
00:27:32.989 --> 00:27:33.459
So I,

1317
00:27:33.540 --> 00:27:34.989
I don't think that's the case and

1318
00:27:35.209 --> 00:27:37.209
And I don't think Scott Jennings would make up

1319
00:27:37.209 --> 00:27:39.030
the fact that he talked to him this week.

1320
00:27:39.729 --> 00:27:40.250
Um,

1321
00:27:40.420 --> 00:27:42.739
but everyone was mocking his post on that when he was like,

1322
00:27:42.819 --> 00:27:44.739
I talked to him for 20 minutes and everyone just started,

1323
00:27:44.819 --> 00:27:45.000
you know,

1324
00:27:45.060 --> 00:27:48.160
mocking everybody was on the internet with him for 20 minutes.

1325
00:27:48.979 --> 00:27:50.339
I know I personally talked to him.

1326
00:27:50.430 --> 00:27:50.449
Oh,

1327
00:27:50.989 --> 00:27:51.510
you did about 20 minutes,

1328
00:27:51.569 --> 00:27:52.099
20 minutes.

1329
00:27:52.180 --> 00:27:53.219
He was dialed in.

1330
00:27:53.900 --> 00:27:57.489
It was a wide ranging discussion about a lot of different topics.

1331
00:27:57.540 --> 00:27:57.579
Yeah,

1332
00:27:57.660 --> 00:27:58.800
and I just want to make sure that

1333
00:27:59.140 --> 00:28:01.140
it's clear that we're consistent on this.

1334
00:28:01.619 --> 00:28:04.339
We called for him to step down when he had the 1st 1st time,

1335
00:28:04.660 --> 00:28:05.209
and

1336
00:28:05.420 --> 00:28:07.380
this is the same reaction I've had,

1337
00:28:07.459 --> 00:28:07.790
I had,

1338
00:28:07.819 --> 00:28:08.500
and you had.

1339
00:28:09.089 --> 00:28:11.270
When we were talking about Joe Biden as president.

1340
00:28:12.010 --> 00:28:12.180
Like,

1341
00:28:12.290 --> 00:28:13.199
what is going on?

1342
00:28:13.290 --> 00:28:16.130
What do you mean he hasn't met his cabinet in 2 years?

1343
00:28:16.209 --> 00:28:17.530
What are you talking about?

1344
00:28:17.969 --> 00:28:18.770
How can that happen?

1345
00:28:18.819 --> 00:28:20.109
It shouldn't be able to happen.

1346
00:28:20.280 --> 00:28:21.250
A senator is one thing,

1347
00:28:21.329 --> 00:28:22.209
it's bad enough.

1348
00:28:22.569 --> 00:28:22.969
President,

1349
00:28:23.010 --> 00:28:23.890
I still feel like we,

1350
00:28:23.989 --> 00:28:25.449
we need more investigations on this.

1351
00:28:25.489 --> 00:28:26.479
We can't just let this go.

1352
00:28:27.089 --> 00:28:27.209
It's,

1353
00:28:27.260 --> 00:28:28.810
it's gotta be something that the American people need to know.

1354
00:28:28.920 --> 00:28:29.489
We can't just have a,

1355
00:28:29.569 --> 00:28:29.680
uh,

1356
00:28:29.969 --> 00:28:30.089
hey,

1357
00:28:30.290 --> 00:28:30.359
well,

1358
00:28:30.410 --> 00:28:32.650
we turned off the office of the president for a couple of years.

1359
00:28:32.689 --> 00:28:34.349
That's not a constitutional option.

1360
00:28:35.160 --> 00:28:36.729
Can you imagine if it was Chuck Schumer?

1361
00:28:37.579 --> 00:28:39.479
Republicans would be out of their minds over this,

1362
00:28:39.619 --> 00:28:40.329
and rightly so,

1363
00:28:40.619 --> 00:28:41.469
and rightly so.

1364
00:28:41.569 --> 00:28:42.619
And we should also point out the

1365
00:28:42.619 --> 00:28:45.540
Republicans also had a congressman who disappeared for

1366
00:28:46.180 --> 00:28:48.160
multiple months in New Jersey,

1367
00:28:48.530 --> 00:28:48.819
uh,

1368
00:28:48.979 --> 00:28:50.540
and then we were just all supposed to accept that too.

1369
00:28:50.819 --> 00:28:51.540
Not OK.

1370
00:28:51.739 --> 00:28:52.800
Doesn't matter the party,

1371
00:28:52.979 --> 00:28:53.560
not OK.

1372
00:28:53.780 --> 00:28:54.260
Um,

1373
00:28:54.579 --> 00:28:56.359
let's talk about Michigan for a second.

1374
00:28:56.619 --> 00:28:57.619
You watched this election,

1375
00:28:57.699 --> 00:28:58.099
I know,

1376
00:28:58.189 --> 00:28:58.420
uh,

1377
00:28:58.660 --> 00:28:59.380
pretty closely.

1378
00:28:59.599 --> 00:28:59.609
Uh,

1379
00:28:59.780 --> 00:29:00.060
you're,

1380
00:29:00.180 --> 00:29:02.030
I know a huge fan of Abdul El Sayed,

1381
00:29:02.819 --> 00:29:03.239
big fan,

1382
00:29:03.390 --> 00:29:03.449
uh,

1383
00:29:03.579 --> 00:29:04.280
big supporter.

1384
00:29:04.709 --> 00:29:05.189
Uh,

1385
00:29:05.420 --> 00:29:09.550
were you at all surprised that he was in a state like Michigan,

1386
00:29:09.630 --> 00:29:09.910
which,

1387
00:29:10.030 --> 00:29:10.150
you know,

1388
00:29:10.189 --> 00:29:10.709
it's not some,

1389
00:29:10.790 --> 00:29:12.010
it's not California,

1390
00:29:12.750 --> 00:29:16.130
that a guy who's basically a democratic socialist was able to win statewide?

1391
00:29:16.270 --> 00:29:16.430
Yeah,

1392
00:29:16.510 --> 00:29:16.780
it's,

1393
00:29:16.900 --> 00:29:17.290
I,

1394
00:29:17.550 --> 00:29:17.709
you know,

1395
00:29:17.790 --> 00:29:20.030
it's kind of sweeping the country right now.

1396
00:29:20.349 --> 00:29:20.829
And

1397
00:29:21.069 --> 00:29:21.550
it's,

1398
00:29:21.630 --> 00:29:22.329
uh,

1399
00:29:22.589 --> 00:29:23.839
it's kind of inconceivable.

1400
00:29:23.939 --> 00:29:24.079
Uh,

1401
00:29:24.349 --> 00:29:25.030
5 years ago,

1402
00:29:25.069 --> 00:29:26.640
I wouldn't have believed this possible,

1403
00:29:27.109 --> 00:29:27.540
but,

1404
00:29:27.790 --> 00:29:27.939
you know,

1405
00:29:28.030 --> 00:29:30.849
we've seen some things change over the last few years,

1406
00:29:30.859 --> 00:29:31.420
and it's,

1407
00:29:31.469 --> 00:29:31.670
uh,

1408
00:29:31.750 --> 00:29:33.670
it's a little bit chilling to me that.

1409
00:29:34.260 --> 00:29:34.920
That these,

1410
00:29:35.140 --> 00:29:35.729
uh,

1411
00:29:35.910 --> 00:29:36.650
in some cases,

1412
00:29:36.729 --> 00:29:37.880
Islamists,

1413
00:29:38.130 --> 00:29:38.930
in some cases,

1414
00:29:39.010 --> 00:29:39.640
Islamist

1415
00:29:39.939 --> 00:29:40.680
socialist,

1416
00:29:41.040 --> 00:29:41.459
um,

1417
00:29:41.619 --> 00:29:41.819
you know,

1418
00:29:42.020 --> 00:29:42.719
Mamdani,

1419
00:29:43.060 --> 00:29:43.839
we've called him an

1420
00:29:44.040 --> 00:29:46.189
Islamunist for about a year now.

1421
00:29:46.530 --> 00:29:46.739
Uh,

1422
00:29:46.819 --> 00:29:50.189
I don't know if that title applies to El Sayed,

1423
00:29:50.260 --> 00:29:51.239
but it's pretty close.

1424
00:29:51.459 --> 00:29:51.760
I mean,

1425
00:29:51.979 --> 00:29:53.280
he's pretty out there,

1426
00:29:53.500 --> 00:29:54.260
pretty far out there.

1427
00:29:54.439 --> 00:29:54.449
He,

1428
00:29:54.540 --> 00:29:55.010
and by the way,

1429
00:29:55.060 --> 00:29:55.280
uh.

1430
00:29:55.415 --> 00:29:58.854
Just came out with an approval rating for Mamdani in New York and it's like 65%.

1431
00:29:59.135 --> 00:29:59.895
It was 69,

1432
00:30:00.015 --> 00:30:00.814
69%,

1433
00:30:01.255 --> 00:30:01.505
it's,

1434
00:30:01.535 --> 00:30:02.574
which is incredible.

1435
00:30:03.224 --> 00:30:03.854
Not believable.

1436
00:30:04.055 --> 00:30:06.234
Socialism often has this arc,

1437
00:30:06.375 --> 00:30:07.574
right where

1438
00:30:07.734 --> 00:30:09.454
the giveaways all come first,

1439
00:30:09.655 --> 00:30:12.375
the paying for all the consequences comes later.

1440
00:30:12.474 --> 00:30:13.055
So you,

1441
00:30:13.204 --> 00:30:16.694
this is not out of the ordinary when it comes to socialism or communism.

1442
00:30:17.040 --> 00:30:17.439
At first,

1443
00:30:17.560 --> 00:30:18.660
a lot of times it is popular,

1444
00:30:18.959 --> 00:30:19.219
uh,

1445
00:30:19.319 --> 00:30:20.900
it fades over time typically.

1446
00:30:21.199 --> 00:30:21.430
Um,

1447
00:30:21.520 --> 00:30:22.640
I wanna give you the market on the,

1448
00:30:22.680 --> 00:30:22.959
on the,

1449
00:30:23.020 --> 00:30:23.280
uh,

1450
00:30:23.439 --> 00:30:23.839
we have the,

1451
00:30:23.880 --> 00:30:24.339
uh,

1452
00:30:24.479 --> 00:30:26.349
the general election market,

1453
00:30:26.680 --> 00:30:28.060
because I think this is interesting and

1454
00:30:28.160 --> 00:30:28.910
while I don't want,

1455
00:30:29.119 --> 00:30:30.000
I'm not a socialist,

1456
00:30:30.079 --> 00:30:31.280
don't want a socialist to win,

1457
00:30:31.540 --> 00:30:31.800
um,

1458
00:30:31.920 --> 00:30:33.439
but I think him winning

1459
00:30:33.599 --> 00:30:34.579
is actually,

1460
00:30:34.839 --> 00:30:35.239
uh,

1461
00:30:35.319 --> 00:30:36.199
we're looking for the Michigan one,

1462
00:30:36.239 --> 00:30:36.359
guys,

1463
00:30:36.439 --> 00:30:36.819
by the way,

1464
00:30:36.959 --> 00:30:37.189
um,

1465
00:30:37.680 --> 00:30:38.069
is actually,

1466
00:30:38.079 --> 00:30:39.920
I think a good thing for Mike Rogers,

1467
00:30:39.989 --> 00:30:40.520
his opponent.

1468
00:30:40.959 --> 00:30:41.489
Um,

1469
00:30:41.660 --> 00:30:42.069
this is,

1470
00:30:42.130 --> 00:30:42.420
uh,

1471
00:30:42.609 --> 00:30:43.589
in that Michigan race

1472
00:30:43.969 --> 00:30:45.089
going up against Haley Stevens,

1473
00:30:45.130 --> 00:30:46.849
who's kind of like a normal-ish Democrat,

1474
00:30:47.010 --> 00:30:47.390
right,

1475
00:30:47.689 --> 00:30:48.119
uh,

1476
00:30:48.410 --> 00:30:48.800
is,

1477
00:30:48.810 --> 00:30:49.420
uh,

1478
00:30:49.890 --> 00:30:53.449
I think would have been more difficult for Rodgers than Abdul El Sayed.

1479
00:30:53.609 --> 00:30:53.880
This is,

1480
00:30:53.969 --> 00:30:54.219
by the way,

1481
00:30:54.290 --> 00:30:55.209
what the market looks like,

1482
00:30:55.290 --> 00:30:55.569
um,

1483
00:30:55.689 --> 00:30:55.979
and Patty,

1484
00:30:56.050 --> 00:30:56.489
you can see this,

1485
00:30:56.550 --> 00:30:56.869
uh,

1486
00:30:57.530 --> 00:30:59.050
you see the peak there,

1487
00:30:59.130 --> 00:31:01.310
which is about a month ago for that green line,

1488
00:31:01.410 --> 00:31:02.619
which is Abdul El Sayed,

1489
00:31:03.170 --> 00:31:03.770
after he,

1490
00:31:04.250 --> 00:31:04.719
you see him,

1491
00:31:04.770 --> 00:31:05.050
um,

1492
00:31:05.160 --> 00:31:06.589
as he kind of comes down.

1493
00:31:07.050 --> 00:31:07.550
Uh,

1494
00:31:08.449 --> 00:31:11.640
he has dropped and the Rodgers,

1495
00:31:11.729 --> 00:31:12.089
um,

1496
00:31:12.290 --> 00:31:13.589
percentage has risen

1497
00:31:14.079 --> 00:31:16.209
since Elsa had got that nomination.

1498
00:31:16.280 --> 00:31:16.359
Now,

1499
00:31:16.369 --> 00:31:18.630
you do see a little bit of a fall off here in the last couple of days.

1500
00:31:18.689 --> 00:31:18.969
I don't know,

1501
00:31:19.020 --> 00:31:20.349
maybe the market's correcting or whatever,

1502
00:31:20.729 --> 00:31:20.849
uh,

1503
00:31:20.930 --> 00:31:21.949
but generally speaking,

1504
00:31:22.290 --> 00:31:23.930
this is seen as Rodgers having a better chance.

1505
00:31:23.969 --> 00:31:24.170
And I,

1506
00:31:24.250 --> 00:31:24.410
you know,

1507
00:31:24.489 --> 00:31:24.609
look,

1508
00:31:24.650 --> 00:31:24.880
I,

1509
00:31:25.050 --> 00:31:26.119
I'm not hiding this.

1510
00:31:26.170 --> 00:31:29.719
I think Rodgers would be a better senator than Abdul Sayed or Haley Stevens,

1511
00:31:29.750 --> 00:31:30.270
frankly.

1512
00:31:30.609 --> 00:31:30.800
Uh,

1513
00:31:30.930 --> 00:31:31.430
but I mean,

1514
00:31:31.770 --> 00:31:31.930
I,

1515
00:31:32.040 --> 00:31:33.170
I have this thing that I,

1516
00:31:33.290 --> 00:31:33.969
I worry about the,

1517
00:31:34.089 --> 00:31:34.829
the same thing in,

1518
00:31:34.969 --> 00:31:35.199
uh,

1519
00:31:35.329 --> 00:31:35.989
Wisconsin.

1520
00:31:36.630 --> 00:31:37.229
We talked about the,

1521
00:31:37.339 --> 00:31:37.770
uh,

1522
00:31:37.780 --> 00:31:38.849
Francesca Hong

1523
00:31:39.109 --> 00:31:39.790
uh losing.

1524
00:31:40.569 --> 00:31:41.010
Do you,

1525
00:31:41.270 --> 00:31:42.520
as a person who's a conservative,

1526
00:31:42.589 --> 00:31:43.010
do you,

1527
00:31:43.369 --> 00:31:44.390
do you root for

1528
00:31:44.530 --> 00:31:46.479
the socialists who maybe is easier to beat,

1529
00:31:46.810 --> 00:31:48.969
or do you go the other way and root for the,

1530
00:31:49.130 --> 00:31:51.569
the maybe more moderate Democrat who might be harder to beat?

1531
00:31:51.609 --> 00:31:51.729
I,

1532
00:31:51.770 --> 00:31:52.010
I get,

1533
00:31:52.209 --> 00:31:52.969
I am conflicted.

1534
00:31:53.010 --> 00:31:54.229
I was really torn as well.

1535
00:31:54.489 --> 00:31:55.479
We talked about that on,

1536
00:31:55.609 --> 00:31:56.829
on the show yesterday

1537
00:31:57.089 --> 00:31:57.550
because,

1538
00:31:57.650 --> 00:31:58.189
um,

1539
00:31:58.969 --> 00:31:58.979
It

1540
00:31:59.569 --> 00:32:00.569
is it a good thing?

1541
00:32:00.689 --> 00:32:00.880
I,

1542
00:32:00.969 --> 00:32:01.989
I don't know anymore.

1543
00:32:02.209 --> 00:32:02.569
I really,

1544
00:32:02.689 --> 00:32:02.930
I,

1545
00:32:03.089 --> 00:32:05.109
you would think the socialists would be

1546
00:32:05.810 --> 00:32:07.089
more easily defeated,

1547
00:32:07.290 --> 00:32:09.880
but I don't know that that's a guarantee anymore.

1548
00:32:10.890 --> 00:32:12.719
It's kind of frightening,

1549
00:32:12.729 --> 00:32:13.790
even in a purple state

1550
00:32:13.930 --> 00:32:14.589
like Michigan,

1551
00:32:14.790 --> 00:32:14.920
uh,

1552
00:32:14.930 --> 00:32:15.150
or,

1553
00:32:15.209 --> 00:32:15.839
or Wisconsin.

1554
00:32:15.880 --> 00:32:18.030
These are close states in the presidential election these days,

1555
00:32:18.170 --> 00:32:18.510
but

1556
00:32:19.089 --> 00:32:20.449
I don't know which way this goes.

1557
00:32:20.569 --> 00:32:20.680
Um,

1558
00:32:20.729 --> 00:32:23.209
I want to take a quick break and come back with more with Pat Gray here in a second.

1559
00:32:23.329 --> 00:32:24.089
We have the midterms.

1560
00:32:24.170 --> 00:32:24.410
What,

1561
00:32:24.729 --> 00:32:26.569
what does Pat think about where the midterms are going?

1562
00:32:26.910 --> 00:32:27.069
Uh,

1563
00:32:27.150 --> 00:32:27.270
and,

1564
00:32:27.380 --> 00:32:28.939
and another one that Pat has,

1565
00:32:28.969 --> 00:32:32.250
has some expertise on and some information I did not know

1566
00:32:32.670 --> 00:32:33.030
about,

1567
00:32:33.069 --> 00:32:33.569
uh,

1568
00:32:33.670 --> 00:32:35.500
that could shape your position on this market.

1569
00:32:35.790 --> 00:32:36.630
Back with more in a second.

1570
00:32:43.369 --> 00:32:46.410
Welcome back to Predictable with Stu and Pat Gray joining us.

1571
00:32:46.569 --> 00:32:46.760
Pat,

1572
00:32:46.839 --> 00:32:46.969
uh,

1573
00:32:47.130 --> 00:32:51.609
Trump says Caroline Levitt resigning as a White House press secretary.

1574
00:32:52.010 --> 00:32:52.479
She says,

1575
00:32:52.540 --> 00:32:52.750
uh,

1576
00:32:52.760 --> 00:32:55.449
our wonderful White House press secretary is one of my trusted aides,

1577
00:32:55.489 --> 00:32:56.170
Caroline Levitt,

1578
00:32:56.209 --> 00:32:57.689
will be departing her role at the end of the month so

1579
00:32:57.689 --> 00:32:59.910
she can spend time with her beautiful young children and family,

1580
00:33:00.089 --> 00:33:02.030
and it does seem to be a really nice.

1581
00:33:02.609 --> 00:33:02.959
Uh,

1582
00:33:03.079 --> 00:33:04.439
warm family story here,

1583
00:33:04.520 --> 00:33:04.640
right?

1584
00:33:04.709 --> 00:33:06.520
Like this doesn't seem like the typical thing where,

1585
00:33:06.589 --> 00:33:06.900
like,

1586
00:33:07.119 --> 00:33:07.359
you know,

1587
00:33:07.520 --> 00:33:10.079
she's murdered 5 people behind the scenes and we don't know about it.

1588
00:33:10.160 --> 00:33:12.439
Like it just seems to be she just wants to spend time with her kids,

1589
00:33:12.489 --> 00:33:13.099
which is great.

1590
00:33:13.229 --> 00:33:13.819
It's great,

1591
00:33:14.239 --> 00:33:14.500
um,

1592
00:33:14.680 --> 00:33:14.839
the,

1593
00:33:14.920 --> 00:33:15.199
the,

1594
00:33:15.319 --> 00:33:15.839
if you don't remember,

1595
00:33:15.920 --> 00:33:18.119
I just wanna run through this because there's a market on who's gonna replace her.

1596
00:33:18.140 --> 00:33:19.030
I don't get your opinion on this,

1597
00:33:19.079 --> 00:33:19.339
but

1598
00:33:19.560 --> 00:33:20.910
Sean Spicer was the first one.

1599
00:33:21.280 --> 00:33:22.439
Then Sarah Huckabee Sanders,

1600
00:33:22.579 --> 00:33:23.319
Stephanie Grisham,

1601
00:33:23.520 --> 00:33:24.359
Kayleigh McEnany,

1602
00:33:24.510 --> 00:33:25.400
and Caroline Levitt the.

1603
00:33:25.469 --> 00:33:26.949
Only one in the second term so far.

1604
00:33:27.050 --> 00:33:28.410
So this is a big decision

1605
00:33:28.790 --> 00:33:29.300
for the president.

1606
00:33:29.790 --> 00:33:30.030
Levitt,

1607
00:33:30.099 --> 00:33:30.250
I think,

1608
00:33:30.260 --> 00:33:31.589
did a pretty good job for him.

1609
00:33:31.829 --> 00:33:32.390
She was really good,

1610
00:33:32.469 --> 00:33:32.630
yeah,

1611
00:33:32.660 --> 00:33:32.670
yeah,

1612
00:33:33.180 --> 00:33:33.349
um,

1613
00:33:33.430 --> 00:33:35.290
let's bring up this market and see the other names,

1614
00:33:35.310 --> 00:33:35.420
uh,

1615
00:33:35.500 --> 00:33:37.150
that we have as possibilities.

1616
00:33:37.229 --> 00:33:37.469
Um,

1617
00:33:37.589 --> 00:33:41.010
so Scott Jennings is the leader we just talked about Scott a moment ago,

1618
00:33:41.709 --> 00:33:42.209
uh,

1619
00:33:42.420 --> 00:33:43.900
and then Anna Kelly,

1620
00:33:44.280 --> 00:33:44.719
Alina

1621
00:33:45.180 --> 00:33:45.430
Haba,

1622
00:33:45.969 --> 00:33:46.739
we go down and do we,

1623
00:33:46.750 --> 00:33:47.880
can we scroll down to the names here?

1624
00:33:47.989 --> 00:33:48.430
OK,

1625
00:33:48.790 --> 00:33:49.260
uh,

1626
00:33:49.430 --> 00:33:50.310
more markets there we go.

1627
00:33:50.430 --> 00:33:50.770
So

1628
00:33:51.280 --> 00:33:52.869
no one really above like 25%,

1629
00:33:52.969 --> 00:33:55.229
I think basically people don't seem to know.

1630
00:33:56.290 --> 00:33:58.040
Some interesting names in here like,

1631
00:33:58.050 --> 00:33:58.170
I,

1632
00:33:58.280 --> 00:33:58.369
you know,

1633
00:33:58.530 --> 00:33:59.449
someone like Steven Chung,

1634
00:33:59.540 --> 00:34:00.329
I can't imagine would,

1635
00:34:00.449 --> 00:34:01.130
would do it.

1636
00:34:01.449 --> 00:34:02.000
Um,

1637
00:34:02.290 --> 00:34:02.650
you know,

1638
00:34:02.729 --> 00:34:03.290
uh,

1639
00:34:03.530 --> 00:34:05.349
Rachel Campos Duffy is an interesting name

1640
00:34:05.770 --> 00:34:06.050
there.

1641
00:34:06.239 --> 00:34:06.770
Sage Steele,

1642
00:34:06.849 --> 00:34:07.890
I don't think she would do it.

1643
00:34:08.090 --> 00:34:08.800
Carrie Lake.

1644
00:34:09.129 --> 00:34:09.489
Carrie Lake,

1645
00:34:09.550 --> 00:34:09.918
I think,

1646
00:34:10.168 --> 00:34:10.560
I don't know.

1647
00:34:10.610 --> 00:34:10.810
I mean,

1648
00:34:10.889 --> 00:34:11.899
she certainly could do it,

1649
00:34:12.080 --> 00:34:12.978
but she's very combative.

1650
00:34:13.208 --> 00:34:13.810
Laura Loomer,

1651
00:34:13.889 --> 00:34:14.810
there's no way.

1652
00:34:15.129 --> 00:34:16.530
Spencer Pratt's an interesting name.

1653
00:34:16.688 --> 00:34:18.120
I heard people talking about Spencer Pratt.

1654
00:34:18.129 --> 00:34:18.708
That would be fun,

1655
00:34:18.728 --> 00:34:19.149
I think.

1656
00:34:19.800 --> 00:34:20.699
I don't think it will happen,

1657
00:34:20.780 --> 00:34:21.340
but it would be fun.

1658
00:34:21.449 --> 00:34:21.938
It would be fun.

1659
00:34:22.219 --> 00:34:22.978
Tucker Carlson,

1660
00:34:23.100 --> 00:34:23.800
I'm gonna say

1661
00:34:24.020 --> 00:34:24.590
probably not.

1662
00:34:24.659 --> 00:34:24.949
No,

1663
00:34:25.188 --> 00:34:26.168
I don't think that,

1664
00:34:26.340 --> 00:34:27.139
I don't see that happening.

1665
00:34:27.260 --> 00:34:28.020
This is another thing I,

1666
00:34:28.100 --> 00:34:29.100
I talk to people all the time,

1667
00:34:29.219 --> 00:34:29.340
Pat,

1668
00:34:29.409 --> 00:34:29.728
because there's,

1669
00:34:29.770 --> 00:34:29.889
uh,

1670
00:34:29.938 --> 00:34:32.040
we talked about the presidential markets earlier on the show.

1671
00:34:32.739 --> 00:34:33.228
People are always like,

1672
00:34:33.300 --> 00:34:33.418
oh,

1673
00:34:33.500 --> 00:34:33.580
well,

1674
00:34:33.659 --> 00:34:34.810
Tucker Carlson run for president.

1675
00:34:35.010 --> 00:34:38.600
Do you have any idea how much money Tucker Carlson makes?

1676
00:34:39.020 --> 00:34:39.629
He,

1677
00:34:40.260 --> 00:34:40.418
he,

1678
00:34:40.580 --> 00:34:42.040
he might buy the Lakers next.

1679
00:34:42.168 --> 00:34:45.168
I like this guy is rolling in money,

1680
00:34:45.290 --> 00:34:47.540
and I know I'm not saying that's the most important thing to him or anything,

1681
00:34:47.620 --> 00:34:47.820
but.

1682
00:34:48.949 --> 00:34:49.969
To take a job,

1683
00:34:49.978 --> 00:34:52.159
to get beat up by the press every day,

1684
00:34:52.239 --> 00:34:52.570
I mean,

1685
00:34:52.860 --> 00:34:53.280
no chance,

1686
00:34:53.379 --> 00:34:53.500
right?

1687
00:34:54.020 --> 00:34:54.250
No,

1688
00:34:54.699 --> 00:34:56.899
any of those names seem interesting that you would think,

1689
00:34:56.938 --> 00:34:57.100
um,

1690
00:34:57.179 --> 00:34:57.979
Alina Haba

1691
00:34:58.590 --> 00:34:59.399
might be good,

1692
00:34:59.620 --> 00:35:01.189
and she's a lawyer,

1693
00:35:01.520 --> 00:35:01.530
yeah,

1694
00:35:01.580 --> 00:35:01.939
I think so.

1695
00:35:02.159 --> 00:35:03.010
She's a lawyer by training,

1696
00:35:03.389 --> 00:35:03.649
uh,

1697
00:35:03.739 --> 00:35:05.449
and then Natalie Harp,

1698
00:35:05.739 --> 00:35:05.979
you know,

1699
00:35:06.100 --> 00:35:06.919
they're really close.

1700
00:35:07.219 --> 00:35:08.179
I could see that happening.

1701
00:35:08.419 --> 00:35:10.060
You know who I'd love to see do it,

1702
00:35:10.139 --> 00:35:12.520
but it'd be a step down for him is Steven Miller.

1703
00:35:12.610 --> 00:35:13.399
That guy

1704
00:35:13.580 --> 00:35:14.120
takes,

1705
00:35:14.580 --> 00:35:16.939
he does not know crap from anybody.

1706
00:35:17.083 --> 00:35:18.022
I love him or hate him.

1707
00:35:18.722 --> 00:35:21.042
You have to admire that he just does not care.

1708
00:35:21.232 --> 00:35:21.603
You do.

1709
00:35:21.683 --> 00:35:22.663
It would be fun

1710
00:35:23.002 --> 00:35:24.242
if he took that job,

1711
00:35:24.443 --> 00:35:25.663
and it was kind of fun when,

1712
00:35:25.843 --> 00:35:26.353
uh,

1713
00:35:26.522 --> 00:35:28.222
when Caroline Levitt was out

1714
00:35:28.482 --> 00:35:29.383
with the baby,

1715
00:35:29.452 --> 00:35:29.722
uh,

1716
00:35:29.843 --> 00:35:31.002
for a couple of months,

1717
00:35:31.083 --> 00:35:35.193
and they had a kind of a rotating group of people that handled it from time to time.

1718
00:35:35.562 --> 00:35:36.593
He was one of those,

1719
00:35:36.643 --> 00:35:37.843
and so was Scott Bessant,

1720
00:35:37.923 --> 00:35:39.782
and they did an OK job,

1721
00:35:39.982 --> 00:35:40.623
and

1722
00:35:41.123 --> 00:35:42.042
Steven Miller was

1723
00:35:42.272 --> 00:35:43.153
exceptional,

1724
00:35:44.163 --> 00:35:45.042
exceptional.

1725
00:35:45.585 --> 00:35:45.986
He,

1726
00:35:46.186 --> 00:35:46.375
I mean,

1727
00:35:46.466 --> 00:35:46.746
look,

1728
00:35:47.815 --> 00:35:49.946
the left like literally despises him.

1729
00:35:50.025 --> 00:35:51.865
I think they do maybe more than Trump.

1730
00:35:52.266 --> 00:35:53.315
I think it's possible,

1731
00:35:53.706 --> 00:35:55.365
which is a high bar to clear,

1732
00:35:55.615 --> 00:35:55.805
uh,

1733
00:35:55.986 --> 00:35:56.355
but,

1734
00:35:56.385 --> 00:35:56.585
uh,

1735
00:35:56.706 --> 00:35:56.746
yeah,

1736
00:35:56.825 --> 00:35:56.996
I don't,

1737
00:35:57.065 --> 00:35:59.426
I don't think that would be a role he would take on a full-time basis.

1738
00:35:59.825 --> 00:35:59.946
Um,

1739
00:36:00.025 --> 00:36:00.385
let me just give you,

1740
00:36:00.476 --> 00:36:01.506
let's do the midterms here real quick,

1741
00:36:01.625 --> 00:36:01.656
uh,

1742
00:36:01.825 --> 00:36:02.065
Pat.

1743
00:36:02.145 --> 00:36:02.666
So this,

1744
00:36:02.736 --> 00:36:04.186
this particular market shows where,

1745
00:36:04.305 --> 00:36:04.426
you know,

1746
00:36:04.785 --> 00:36:06.275
Republicans and Democrats will go.

1747
00:36:07.045 --> 00:36:08.186
Will there be a Democratic sweep,

1748
00:36:08.345 --> 00:36:10.045
47% chance.

1749
00:36:10.395 --> 00:36:10.585
Uh,

1750
00:36:10.746 --> 00:36:12.746
will Democrats get the House but not the Senate?

1751
00:36:12.785 --> 00:36:14.025
That's at 38%.

1752
00:36:14.729 --> 00:36:17.469
Republican sweep at 15% and the one that basically

1753
00:36:18.050 --> 00:36:18.510
can't happen,

1754
00:36:18.649 --> 00:36:19.250
I would say,

1755
00:36:19.370 --> 00:36:19.489
uh,

1756
00:36:19.610 --> 00:36:22.050
mostly is a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.

1757
00:36:22.290 --> 00:36:22.959
That would be a very,

1758
00:36:23.050 --> 00:36:24.260
very strange outcome

1759
00:36:24.520 --> 00:36:25.280
out of this election.

1760
00:36:25.770 --> 00:36:26.729
What are your feelings right now?

1761
00:36:26.770 --> 00:36:27.010
I mean,

1762
00:36:27.169 --> 00:36:28.070
the polling

1763
00:36:28.570 --> 00:36:30.189
isn't great for,

1764
00:36:30.260 --> 00:36:31.850
for Trump and approval rating,

1765
00:36:32.050 --> 00:36:32.320
but it,

1766
00:36:32.370 --> 00:36:32.479
it,

1767
00:36:32.530 --> 00:36:35.610
it hasn't like fallen apart for Republicans and their chances.

1768
00:36:35.689 --> 00:36:36.129
How do you feel?

1769
00:36:36.209 --> 00:36:36.489
How do you see?

1770
00:36:36.540 --> 00:36:36.770
I'm,

1771
00:36:36.850 --> 00:36:37.590
I'm still

1772
00:36:38.209 --> 00:36:39.510
mildly hopeful

1773
00:36:39.810 --> 00:36:40.050
that,

1774
00:36:40.209 --> 00:36:40.330
you know,

1775
00:36:40.439 --> 00:36:42.510
they can hang on to at least the Senate

1776
00:36:42.969 --> 00:36:43.489
and.

1777
00:36:44.080 --> 00:36:44.360
Uh,

1778
00:36:44.439 --> 00:36:44.679
I,

1779
00:36:44.760 --> 00:36:47.280
but it's hard because gas prices are up.

1780
00:36:47.340 --> 00:36:47.790
I mean,

1781
00:36:48.120 --> 00:36:49.209
they haven't gone down.

1782
00:36:49.320 --> 00:36:51.600
The war is still dragging on.

1783
00:36:52.000 --> 00:36:53.000
We've got some

1784
00:36:53.479 --> 00:36:55.520
headwinds that we're facing right now,

1785
00:36:55.560 --> 00:36:57.219
the Republicans are facing.

1786
00:36:57.360 --> 00:36:57.939
Um,

1787
00:36:58.479 --> 00:36:59.540
I don't think they keep,

1788
00:37:00.010 --> 00:37:01.409
The majority in both,

1789
00:37:02.010 --> 00:37:02.020
yeah,

1790
00:37:02.030 --> 00:37:03.969
the house seems that's almost impossible,

1791
00:37:04.010 --> 00:37:04.330
I think,

1792
00:37:04.409 --> 00:37:04.610
you know,

1793
00:37:04.689 --> 00:37:05.010
from history,

1794
00:37:05.169 --> 00:37:05.330
Pat,

1795
00:37:05.370 --> 00:37:05.449
right,

1796
00:37:05.530 --> 00:37:06.350
like this is just

1797
00:37:06.889 --> 00:37:10.389
when you have a president in one party and then then you have that first midterm

1798
00:37:11.449 --> 00:37:11.639
with

1799
00:37:11.750 --> 00:37:12.770
with very few exceptions,

1800
00:37:12.810 --> 00:37:14.689
it's an unmitigated disaster.

1801
00:37:15.060 --> 00:37:16.419
And the war is not helping right now.

1802
00:37:16.540 --> 00:37:16.659
Yeah,

1803
00:37:16.739 --> 00:37:18.340
is that the thing that you think is the biggest key?

1804
00:37:18.580 --> 00:37:19.540
Is it affordability?

1805
00:37:19.620 --> 00:37:20.399
Is it the war?

1806
00:37:20.459 --> 00:37:20.580
I mean,

1807
00:37:20.620 --> 00:37:21.090
I guess that goes along,

1808
00:37:21.169 --> 00:37:21.340
I think,

1809
00:37:21.530 --> 00:37:21.649
yeah,

1810
00:37:21.780 --> 00:37:26.120
they're kind of together because I think the war is causing unaffordability.

1811
00:37:26.179 --> 00:37:26.540
And,

1812
00:37:26.699 --> 00:37:26.860
you know,

1813
00:37:26.939 --> 00:37:30.159
gas prices here in Texas just went up 50 cents a gallon.

1814
00:37:30.689 --> 00:37:31.090
Uh,

1815
00:37:31.179 --> 00:37:32.899
I don't know why exactly,

1816
00:37:32.979 --> 00:37:33.379
um,

1817
00:37:33.620 --> 00:37:34.580
but,

1818
00:37:34.800 --> 00:37:35.139
uh,

1819
00:37:35.260 --> 00:37:35.459
you know,

1820
00:37:35.530 --> 00:37:36.540
it's pretty volatile.

1821
00:37:36.580 --> 00:37:37.020
It goes up,

1822
00:37:37.090 --> 00:37:38.129
it comes back down,

1823
00:37:38.169 --> 00:37:38.699
it goes up,

1824
00:37:38.770 --> 00:37:39.659
it comes back down.

1825
00:37:40.060 --> 00:37:42.360
The President said yesterday that everything's fine.

1826
00:37:42.939 --> 00:37:44.479
I'm not sure I feel that way.

1827
00:37:46.229 --> 00:37:46.370
No,

1828
00:37:46.429 --> 00:37:46.540
I,

1829
00:37:46.590 --> 00:37:46.889
I agree.

1830
00:37:46.949 --> 00:37:47.149
You know,

1831
00:37:47.229 --> 00:37:48.290
the war is fine,

1832
00:37:48.750 --> 00:37:50.330
the prices are fine,

1833
00:37:50.389 --> 00:37:51.739
they're all coming down.

1834
00:37:52.290 --> 00:37:53.530
I'm not seeing that.

1835
00:37:53.620 --> 00:37:55.149
Is there potentially,

1836
00:37:55.270 --> 00:37:55.510
Pat,

1837
00:37:55.550 --> 00:37:57.090
a lesson to be learned

1838
00:37:57.350 --> 00:37:57.770
from our,

1839
00:37:57.830 --> 00:37:58.340
uh,

1840
00:37:58.629 --> 00:37:59.159
previous,

1841
00:37:59.229 --> 00:37:59.659
uh,

1842
00:37:59.989 --> 00:38:01.790
prestigious president of the United States,

1843
00:38:01.949 --> 00:38:02.409
Joe

1844
00:38:02.750 --> 00:38:03.790
Robinette Biden?

1845
00:38:04.179 --> 00:38:04.550
Uh,

1846
00:38:04.699 --> 00:38:06.379
who tried this approach,

1847
00:38:06.500 --> 00:38:06.669
right?

1848
00:38:06.820 --> 00:38:08.699
Basically said biodyomics is working,

1849
00:38:08.780 --> 00:38:10.399
you guys just don't understand it.

1850
00:38:11.020 --> 00:38:13.739
That didn't lead to necessarily positive things.

1851
00:38:13.820 --> 00:38:15.620
And I think it hacks people off,

1852
00:38:15.820 --> 00:38:16.139
you know,

1853
00:38:16.300 --> 00:38:19.139
when you're telling them they're doing better than they know they are.

1854
00:38:19.679 --> 00:38:21.159
That's not a good thing.

1855
00:38:21.239 --> 00:38:21.600
And I,

1856
00:38:21.719 --> 00:38:22.179
I think,

1857
00:38:22.320 --> 00:38:25.219
I think President Trump kind of fell into that yesterday and,

1858
00:38:25.479 --> 00:38:26.000
um,

1859
00:38:26.199 --> 00:38:26.979
was telling

1860
00:38:27.320 --> 00:38:28.270
everybody how good things are,

1861
00:38:28.300 --> 00:38:28.840
and I,

1862
00:38:28.969 --> 00:38:31.239
I don't think that's reflected in reality right now.

1863
00:38:31.399 --> 00:38:32.199
How would you fix it

1864
00:38:32.320 --> 00:38:32.919
if you're Trump,

1865
00:38:33.000 --> 00:38:33.229
like,

1866
00:38:33.489 --> 00:38:33.750
and you,

1867
00:38:33.820 --> 00:38:34.030
you know,

1868
00:38:34.199 --> 00:38:34.280
again,

1869
00:38:34.399 --> 00:38:35.620
Trump can't do this all by himself,

1870
00:38:35.709 --> 00:38:36.110
but like what,

1871
00:38:36.159 --> 00:38:37.560
what moves would you try to make to,

1872
00:38:37.679 --> 00:38:39.459
to make it possible for your party to hold on?

1873
00:38:39.520 --> 00:38:39.639
Well,

1874
00:38:39.719 --> 00:38:40.020
we

1875
00:38:40.879 --> 00:38:41.860
gotta get out of Iran,

1876
00:38:42.540 --> 00:38:42.550
uh,

1877
00:38:42.679 --> 00:38:43.820
except you can't leave it

1878
00:38:44.120 --> 00:38:45.209
the way it is now.

1879
00:38:45.360 --> 00:38:45.899
So

1880
00:38:46.280 --> 00:38:49.199
I guess you bomb the crap out of them and then get out of Iran.

1881
00:38:50.010 --> 00:38:51.320
Declare victory and leave.

1882
00:38:51.669 --> 00:38:52.429
It's really tough,

1883
00:38:52.629 --> 00:38:53.000
really tough.

1884
00:38:53.090 --> 00:38:53.449
I don't know.

1885
00:38:53.570 --> 00:38:55.750
There's not a lot the president can do

1886
00:38:56.090 --> 00:38:58.649
at this particular moment to lower grocery prices.

1887
00:38:58.770 --> 00:39:01.469
I think the war's got to be won and then over

1888
00:39:01.729 --> 00:39:02.689
before that's gonna happen.

1889
00:39:02.840 --> 00:39:04.409
And we're less than 90 days away from this election.

1890
00:39:04.689 --> 00:39:05.370
So you don't,

1891
00:39:05.770 --> 00:39:05.889
you know,

1892
00:39:05.959 --> 00:39:07.510
people will have their mind made up,

1893
00:39:07.610 --> 00:39:07.810
what,

1894
00:39:07.969 --> 00:39:09.330
at least 1 month before early.

1895
00:39:09.439 --> 00:39:10.239
Voting is gonna start.

1896
00:39:10.709 --> 00:39:11.949
We should look at September 18th,

1897
00:39:12.219 --> 00:39:12.919
the first one,

1898
00:39:13.080 --> 00:39:13.679
September 18th.

1899
00:39:13.800 --> 00:39:13.840
See,

1900
00:39:13.919 --> 00:39:14.199
look at that.

1901
00:39:14.320 --> 00:39:16.760
Pat's doing the research for the show because I was just about to ask,

1902
00:39:16.840 --> 00:39:17.709
we should get the numbers,

1903
00:39:17.959 --> 00:39:18.909
but we should know what that we should,

1904
00:39:18.959 --> 00:39:19.830
let's get the numbers and dates,

1905
00:39:19.879 --> 00:39:20.060
Adam,

1906
00:39:20.080 --> 00:39:20.199
of,

1907
00:39:20.280 --> 00:39:20.820
of all these,

1908
00:39:21.239 --> 00:39:21.270
uh,

1909
00:39:21.280 --> 00:39:23.149
states so we can talk about it as it comes down because that's,

1910
00:39:23.360 --> 00:39:23.959
that's not far away.

1911
00:39:24.000 --> 00:39:24.800
That's a month away.

1912
00:39:24.840 --> 00:39:25.739
It's about a month away,

1913
00:39:25.810 --> 00:39:26.000
yeah,

1914
00:39:26.399 --> 00:39:26.600
um,

1915
00:39:26.719 --> 00:39:27.629
last one for you because this is,

1916
00:39:27.679 --> 00:39:28.860
you've talked a lot about this.

1917
00:39:29.750 --> 00:39:31.129
Will the US confirm

1918
00:39:31.310 --> 00:39:32.929
that aliens exist?

1919
00:39:33.270 --> 00:39:33.709
Now,

1920
00:39:34.070 --> 00:39:36.070
you've done a lot of coverage on this,

1921
00:39:36.350 --> 00:39:40.510
and because there are weird videos and the government is releasing

1922
00:39:40.510 --> 00:39:43.649
strange things that I don't think I ever thought they would be

1923
00:39:43.979 --> 00:39:44.729
releasing.

1924
00:39:45.290 --> 00:39:45.310
They,

1925
00:39:45.469 --> 00:39:45.629
you know,

1926
00:39:45.709 --> 00:39:46.189
as of right now,

1927
00:39:46.260 --> 00:39:47.250
let's show the market real quick.

1928
00:39:47.389 --> 00:39:47.459
Um,

1929
00:39:47.570 --> 00:39:47.909
will they,

1930
00:39:47.989 --> 00:39:48.510
this is,

1931
00:39:48.629 --> 00:39:48.909
uh,

1932
00:39:49.110 --> 00:39:50.229
there's a few different options here.

1933
00:39:50.399 --> 00:39:51.409
Before 2027,

1934
00:39:51.510 --> 00:39:53.909
there's a 6% chance before 2028,

1935
00:39:53.989 --> 00:39:56.270
a 17% chance before 2029.

1936
00:39:56.669 --> 00:39:56.830
Uh,

1937
00:39:56.899 --> 00:39:58.580
a 20 before Trump's term ends,

1938
00:39:58.590 --> 00:39:59.070
basically is,

1939
00:39:59.149 --> 00:40:00.840
is a 23 or 29%.

1940
00:40:01.070 --> 00:40:01.830
My eyes are terrible,

1941
00:40:01.899 --> 00:40:02.629
23%,

1942
00:40:02.959 --> 00:40:03.270
um.

1943
00:40:03.969 --> 00:40:04.649
You know,

1944
00:40:05.520 --> 00:40:07.229
I think whether they're true or not,

1945
00:40:07.360 --> 00:40:09.909
the government saying that that outwardly is,

1946
00:40:09.959 --> 00:40:10.280
is a,

1947
00:40:10.340 --> 00:40:10.639
is a,

1948
00:40:10.719 --> 00:40:12.139
is a high hurdle to clear,

1949
00:40:12.399 --> 00:40:12.679
um,

1950
00:40:12.800 --> 00:40:13.459
but what do you,

1951
00:40:13.800 --> 00:40:14.800
what do you think from the releases?

1952
00:40:14.850 --> 00:40:16.179
Is there any indication that would happen?

1953
00:40:16.270 --> 00:40:16.590
Well,

1954
00:40:16.840 --> 00:40:20.580
let me throw in one variable that you might not be counting on right now.

1955
00:40:20.879 --> 00:40:21.340
Um,

1956
00:40:21.840 --> 00:40:22.300
the

1957
00:40:22.419 --> 00:40:24.659
blind Bulgarian mystic Baba Vga.

1958
00:40:26.379 --> 00:40:26.389
Oh,

1959
00:40:26.479 --> 00:40:27.120
Babavanga,

1960
00:40:27.199 --> 00:40:27.479
who,

1961
00:40:27.600 --> 00:40:27.959
who died,

1962
00:40:27.969 --> 00:40:28.199
of course,

1963
00:40:28.239 --> 00:40:29.379
in 1996,

1964
00:40:30.070 --> 00:40:30.679
but before she did,

1965
00:40:30.770 --> 00:40:33.040
she made some predictions for 2026,

1966
00:40:33.840 --> 00:40:34.520
2 of which.

1967
00:40:35.040 --> 00:40:35.679
Supposedly,

1968
00:40:35.840 --> 00:40:38.040
according to her followers have already come true.

1969
00:40:38.320 --> 00:40:38.439
Now,

1970
00:40:38.479 --> 00:40:40.830
there's 3 more sometime during the course of the year,

1971
00:40:40.840 --> 00:40:41.899
and one of them is

1972
00:40:42.360 --> 00:40:44.100
that by November,

1973
00:40:44.580 --> 00:40:44.989
uh,

1974
00:40:45.159 --> 00:40:50.800
we will see the first absolute proof of extraterrestrial life because a spaceship.

1975
00:40:51.340 --> 00:40:55.879
That's about 1 mile long is going to show up over the United States of America.

1976
00:40:56.340 --> 00:40:57.159
That to me

1977
00:40:57.699 --> 00:40:59.979
would confirm the existence of aliens,

1978
00:41:00.100 --> 00:41:00.570
and,

1979
00:41:00.600 --> 00:41:00.939
uh,

1980
00:41:00.989 --> 00:41:03.560
I don't even need the president telling me if that happens.

1981
00:41:04.379 --> 00:41:05.020
So,

1982
00:41:05.399 --> 00:41:06.770
so I'm pretty excited about that.

1983
00:41:07.020 --> 00:41:08.280
That's supposed to happen.

1984
00:41:08.800 --> 00:41:09.899
Babavanga said.

1985
00:41:10.689 --> 00:41:11.290
By November,

1986
00:41:11.370 --> 00:41:11.810
by November,

1987
00:41:11.909 --> 00:41:13.929
so definitely not in December.

1988
00:41:14.040 --> 00:41:15.550
There's no chance of it happening.

1989
00:41:15.590 --> 00:41:16.280
There's no chance.

1990
00:41:17.129 --> 00:41:18.810
It probably not in August either.

1991
00:41:18.909 --> 00:41:19.590
I'm thinking

1992
00:41:19.719 --> 00:41:21.610
in November it's going in November.

1993
00:41:21.689 --> 00:41:24.189
So a November date would qualify.

1994
00:41:24.449 --> 00:41:26.050
It doesn't have to be before November,

1995
00:41:26.129 --> 00:41:27.010
like October.

1996
00:41:27.570 --> 00:41:29.209
It's gonna be probably in November.

1997
00:41:29.370 --> 00:41:29.750
That comes

1998
00:41:29.889 --> 00:41:30.810
straight from Babavanga,

1999
00:41:31.699 --> 00:41:33.409
we the blind Bulgarian mystic,

2000
00:41:33.520 --> 00:41:33.530
right,

2001
00:41:33.889 --> 00:41:34.790
30 years ago.

2002
00:41:35.520 --> 00:41:36.179
Yes,

2003
00:41:36.919 --> 00:41:37.040
see,

2004
00:41:37.120 --> 00:41:37.479
like you,

2005
00:41:37.600 --> 00:41:37.719
you,

2006
00:41:37.840 --> 00:41:40.199
you come to the show to try to profit in these markets.

2007
00:41:40.320 --> 00:41:41.560
Look at this information we're giving,

2008
00:41:41.679 --> 00:41:41.949
right?

2009
00:41:42.159 --> 00:41:43.239
No one else is talking about this.

2010
00:41:43.479 --> 00:41:46.379
No other prediction market show is getting you Baba Vga information.

2011
00:41:46.600 --> 00:41:47.239
They're not doing that,

2012
00:41:47.399 --> 00:41:47.639
Pat.

2013
00:41:47.760 --> 00:41:48.120
They're not.

2014
00:41:48.239 --> 00:41:48.399
No,

2015
00:41:48.469 --> 00:41:49.669
and you need that

2016
00:41:49.800 --> 00:41:51.540
important information to consider.

2017
00:41:51.600 --> 00:41:52.540
They're trying to hide it from you.

2018
00:41:52.919 --> 00:41:53.600
They are trying to,

2019
00:41:53.750 --> 00:41:54.110
are you,

2020
00:41:54.229 --> 00:41:54.320
uh,

2021
00:41:54.439 --> 00:41:54.560
so,

2022
00:41:54.679 --> 00:41:54.790
uh,

2023
00:41:54.840 --> 00:41:55.520
what's going on with Kexie?

2024
00:41:55.580 --> 00:41:56.080
We have any big?

2025
00:41:56.256 --> 00:41:57.035
Big stuff coming up.

2026
00:41:57.216 --> 00:41:57.696
Uh,

2027
00:41:57.815 --> 00:41:58.196
well,

2028
00:41:58.295 --> 00:41:58.496
uh,

2029
00:41:58.615 --> 00:41:59.555
August is our,

2030
00:41:59.656 --> 00:41:59.855
uh,

2031
00:42:00.016 --> 00:42:01.416
coffee cake cookie month,

2032
00:42:01.575 --> 00:42:02.775
so that's a pretty good one.

2033
00:42:03.135 --> 00:42:03.956
People love that

2034
00:42:04.335 --> 00:42:04.895
because I think I feel,

2035
00:42:04.976 --> 00:42:06.085
I feel like I've had coffee cake,

2036
00:42:06.176 --> 00:42:07.176
but I don't know if I've ever had the coffee cake.

2037
00:42:07.216 --> 00:42:08.696
The cookie coffee cake cookie is really good.

2038
00:42:08.736 --> 00:42:11.516
It's got that delicious strudel on top,

2039
00:42:11.736 --> 00:42:11.976
you know,

2040
00:42:12.135 --> 00:42:13.696
that really cinnamon crumb stuff is,

2041
00:42:13.815 --> 00:42:13.885
yes,

2042
00:42:14.246 --> 00:42:15.535
it's the good thing of all time,

2043
00:42:15.736 --> 00:42:16.156
so good,

2044
00:42:16.216 --> 00:42:16.785
those.

2045
00:42:16.912 --> 00:42:17.261
I mean,

2046
00:42:17.471 --> 00:42:21.271
even normal cookies that are or breads that are like a coffee cake

2047
00:42:21.491 --> 00:42:22.392
have a lot of butter in them.

2048
00:42:22.451 --> 00:42:23.412
I can't even imagine

2049
00:42:23.832 --> 00:42:26.231
the amount of butter that is in a Keexie version of that.

2050
00:42:26.312 --> 00:42:29.812
There's a rumor that there's a decent amount of butter in those cookies,

2051
00:42:30.112 --> 00:42:31.431
maybe a shortage in Texas.

2052
00:42:31.912 --> 00:42:32.291
Um,

2053
00:42:32.431 --> 00:42:32.582
uh,

2054
00:42:32.721 --> 00:42:33.572
that's fantastic.

2055
00:42:33.771 --> 00:42:33.781
Uh,

2056
00:42:33.791 --> 00:42:35.191
people can go to kexie.com and order them.

2057
00:42:35.231 --> 00:42:37.511
You'll love those cookies if you're looking for gifts and stuff.

2058
00:42:38.090 --> 00:42:39.330
I can't recommend them highly enough,

2059
00:42:39.449 --> 00:42:39.649
you know,

2060
00:42:39.889 --> 00:42:40.389
because,

2061
00:42:40.929 --> 00:42:41.050
look,

2062
00:42:41.169 --> 00:42:42.889
people have already had Tiff's treats.

2063
00:42:43.209 --> 00:42:43.709
They've had them already,

2064
00:42:44.050 --> 00:42:44.340
OK.

2065
00:42:44.530 --> 00:42:45.010
These are way,

2066
00:42:45.100 --> 00:42:45.570
way better.

2067
00:42:46.020 --> 00:42:46.330
You will,

2068
00:42:46.439 --> 00:42:47.360
and you'll get a special like,

2069
00:42:47.600 --> 00:42:47.969
holy,

2070
00:42:48.090 --> 00:42:50.189
those cookies were amazing like a week later,

2071
00:42:50.610 --> 00:42:50.719
uh,

2072
00:42:50.760 --> 00:42:52.449
if you give them as a gift or you bring them to a party,

2073
00:42:52.649 --> 00:42:54.129
can't recommend Kexie High and Highland enough,

2074
00:42:54.159 --> 00:42:55.489
and of course Pat Gray unleashed,

2075
00:42:55.770 --> 00:42:55.959
uh,

2076
00:42:56.050 --> 00:42:56.790
as well.

2077
00:42:56.969 --> 00:42:57.090
Uh,

2078
00:42:57.169 --> 00:42:58.189
last one for you before we go,

2079
00:42:58.969 --> 00:42:59.570
Talarico.

2080
00:43:00.010 --> 00:43:00.760
And Paxton,

2081
00:43:00.840 --> 00:43:01.429
are you

2082
00:43:01.570 --> 00:43:02.610
nervous about this yet?

2083
00:43:02.760 --> 00:43:03.010
Very,

2084
00:43:03.250 --> 00:43:03.370
yeah,

2085
00:43:03.489 --> 00:43:03.689
very.

2086
00:43:03.770 --> 00:43:05.429
He's up 47-45.

2087
00:43:05.689 --> 00:43:05.830
I mean,

2088
00:43:05.889 --> 00:43:06.790
the guy's a freak.

2089
00:43:07.010 --> 00:43:08.149
He's insane.

2090
00:43:08.629 --> 00:43:08.889
Tallarico,

2091
00:43:08.929 --> 00:43:10.030
you're talking about Tallarico.

2092
00:43:10.209 --> 00:43:10.620
Yes,

2093
00:43:10.969 --> 00:43:11.850
now Ken Paxton,

2094
00:43:12.050 --> 00:43:13.169
Paxton has some issues,

2095
00:43:13.330 --> 00:43:13.570
but,

2096
00:43:13.659 --> 00:43:13.929
uh,

2097
00:43:14.010 --> 00:43:14.290
I'm,

2098
00:43:14.409 --> 00:43:15.469
I'm just saying

2099
00:43:15.929 --> 00:43:17.409
set him aside and vote for him.

2100
00:43:17.729 --> 00:43:18.409
That's all I'm saying.

2101
00:43:18.570 --> 00:43:20.409
Don't worry about any if you have a problem.

2102
00:43:20.600 --> 00:43:20.629
Problem.

2103
00:43:21.189 --> 00:43:23.969
Forget you had the problem and just go that way and just vote for it.

2104
00:43:24.040 --> 00:43:24.399
OK,

2105
00:43:24.459 --> 00:43:24.469
yeah,

2106
00:43:25.159 --> 00:43:27.159
that's one where I get in a lot of questions about that one

2107
00:43:27.520 --> 00:43:31.600
because I still feel like a lot of Republicans will come home in November.

2108
00:43:31.919 --> 00:43:32.080
Uh,

2109
00:43:32.189 --> 00:43:33.159
people who liked Cornyn,

2110
00:43:33.239 --> 00:43:33.620
for example,

2111
00:43:33.719 --> 00:43:34.090
will be like,

2112
00:43:34.159 --> 00:43:34.479
alright,

2113
00:43:34.560 --> 00:43:37.030
like I don't want this weirdo to be my senator,

2114
00:43:37.159 --> 00:43:38.000
meaning Tallarico,

2115
00:43:38.399 --> 00:43:38.939
um,

2116
00:43:39.239 --> 00:43:40.899
even if they don't like Pakistan all that much.

2117
00:43:41.209 --> 00:43:43.350
But if the Republicans don't spend money,

2118
00:43:43.429 --> 00:43:43.709
and I,

2119
00:43:43.830 --> 00:43:46.500
there's part of me that thinks Cornyn is behind the scenes being like,

2120
00:43:46.560 --> 00:43:46.909
you know what,

2121
00:43:47.030 --> 00:43:47.870
don't bail him out.

2122
00:43:48.030 --> 00:43:48.189
You know,

2123
00:43:48.310 --> 00:43:48.590
I don't,

2124
00:43:48.669 --> 00:43:49.070
I don't,

2125
00:43:49.310 --> 00:43:49.469
I,

2126
00:43:49.580 --> 00:43:51.389
I think he's got a lot of power in that realm,

2127
00:43:51.469 --> 00:43:52.830
and I wonder if they're gonna spend money.

2128
00:43:52.870 --> 00:43:53.709
If they don't spend any money,

2129
00:43:53.790 --> 00:43:54.570
he could lose.

2130
00:43:55.149 --> 00:43:55.350
Uh,

2131
00:43:55.469 --> 00:43:56.469
so that's like a fifty-fifty,

2132
00:43:56.550 --> 00:43:57.790
I think actually now for the first

2133
00:43:57.790 --> 00:43:59.850
time Tallarico's ahead in the prediction markets,

2134
00:44:00.350 --> 00:44:00.510
uh,

2135
00:44:00.580 --> 00:44:01.449
for the first time.

2136
00:44:01.860 --> 00:44:02.070
Uh,

2137
00:44:02.189 --> 00:44:02.489
so

2138
00:44:02.870 --> 00:44:03.250
if you think he's got,

2139
00:44:03.399 --> 00:44:04.399
if you think Paxton's gonna win,

2140
00:44:04.429 --> 00:44:05.600
there's some big value there,

2141
00:44:05.709 --> 00:44:05.879
but,

2142
00:44:05.949 --> 00:44:06.270
uh,

2143
00:44:06.459 --> 00:44:06.669
wow,

2144
00:44:06.780 --> 00:44:08.669
that's quite a statement for a state like Texas.

2145
00:44:08.790 --> 00:44:09.110
Pat Ray,

2146
00:44:09.229 --> 00:44:09.780
Pat Ray Unleashed,

2147
00:44:09.830 --> 00:44:10.830
thanks so much for coming on and join us.

2148
00:44:10.969 --> 00:44:11.469
Appreciate it.