Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
We have a major development in 2028.
A new leader
in the prediction markets.
We'll tell you about that in here,
in here just a second,
honestly,
because we also have to do that.
We have to do Pat Gray as well.
We're gonna bring him in.
He's got Mitch McConnell talk.
Uh,
is Mitch coming back ever?
We do aliens exist?
And also,
uh,
Caroline Leavitt,
the,
the Democratic midterms,
Abdul El Sayed,
lots of stuff to talk to Pat about,
so
we'll get to that as well.
We'd love you to join us on PredictableShow.com.
There's a free membership there you can do with your email,
lots of information,
the great stuff,
conversation about prediction markets
and the elections generally.
And of course,
we have our premium tier as well at predictableshow.com.
Let's get the show started.
82 days
until the election.
82 days,
we are in that,
like,
uh,
the final stretch.
There's a few more primaries coming up and then we get into
freak out time.
Everyone's going to panic.
Uh,
and it is one of those situations where
we,
we have a road that is,
uh,
very,
very interesting,
and there are a lot of opportunities.
If you wanna be bold,
you could find really big opportunities in these markets.
Uh,
but also just,
uh,
sort of conservative,
uh,
investments that you can make a great return over the next few months.
Lots of those options to give you.
We give you all those on predictableShow.com.
Obviously,
as,
uh,
on a show,
we can't get to every single,
uh,
every single market,
every single thing.
Uh,
we're time-limited there,
but at least with the premium tier,
you get every single prediction that I have,
every single position that I hold.
Excuse me.
And,
uh,
that is,
uh,
part of the premium tier.
There's over 200 of them.
We're gonna have them updated for you,
uh,
tomorrow.
Uh,
and,
uh,
we do that,
uh,
all the time in the premium chat.
So,
great community,
we'd love you to join us,
Predictableshow.com.
Now,
let me talk to you about AOC.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,
she's leaving her 2028 options
open.
She's been kind of flirting with this.
She's leaving her options open while she's freezing her eggs.
That's a whole another storyline,
honestly,
with AOC right now.
Uh,
but so she's doing the egg freezing thing,
she's on social media all the time.
Nothing of that is new,
and she's keeping this sort of option open to run
in 2028.
1 thing I think we've seen
over the years.
And I think
this isn't a a completely true rule,
but it does feel true,
um,
at least common,
which is when you have a moment,
when you have an opening
at the presidency of the United States,
take it.
Uh,
take that opening,
give it a shot.
Because a lot of times you,
you can outsmart yourself by waiting.
And,
uh,
we saw this like,
for example,
you think of a person like Chris Christie,
uh,
back in,
was it 2012?
I think it was 2012,
yeah,
it was,
uh,
when Obama was going for his second term,
and Christie was kind of the hot new thing,
uh,
you know,
not,
not appearance-wise,
uh,
necessarily,
but
he was,
uh,
kind of a big thing on the Republican side,
right?
Uh,
blue,
uh,
blue state governor
was popular,
he had done things that were relatively conservative,
getting,
you know,
going after some union stuff,
a lot of regulation stuff,
he had cut taxes.
And he was a,
a very prominent figure going into 2012.
Decided not to run,
thought,
you know what,
I'm not gonna take on Obama,
I'll go for it in 2016.
We all know how that worked out.
Not well,
not well.
I don't know if he ever cleared 3% in a poll.
Uh,
it just,
no one was interested four years later.
We are a fickle group,
us Americans,
and usually we get kind of bored of people.
We're like,
no,
you know,
there's been different,
I mean,
Donald Trump has obviously,
you know,
dominated the discourse in this country for a decade.
Uh,
he was able to come back and
do it again,
uh,
though he basically ran that entire time,
he didn't,
he didn't choose not to run,
but he did a few times earlier.
So Trump is a very weird situation,
as you might know,
as he might admit,
uh,
a bit of an outlier,
right,
like a bit of a unique figure in American history,
but usually when you're just kind of like a person that people know,
and you're like,
ah,
I'll just wait a few years,
it doesn't always work out all that well.
Um,
especially in an environment where there's gonna be a
lot of people running for the Democratic nomination.
Kamala Harris is still talking about that as well.
Kamala Harris's chances of beating Newsom and AOC in new 2028 poll.
You know,
I will say
it's interesting what you're going through.
I was just mentioning predictableShow.com and the premium tier.
We have over 200 of my,
uh,
prediction market positions listed there for you to peruse,
uh,
maybe join in on,
maybe make fun of.
Uh,
I,
uh,
as I was going through this list,
I was looking at them and I was like,
a lot of these I'm,
I'm relatively proud of,
right?
Like they're positions,
some of them were positions that I took at,
you know,
50 cents.
They're already at 98 or 99.
Some of them I think I really feel comfortable about.
Some of the ones that aren't going to hit.
I'm totally fine with my thinking and,
and process on them.
And honestly,
like,
I look at it and I'm like,
you know what?
I feel good about that one.
I feel good.
I feel like I,
I,
I took a good position.
It was the right thing to do.
The value was there,
didn't work out.
One of the things we talk about all the time on this program is finding
value.
Value doesn't necessarily mean winning every time.
And,
you know,
sometimes you take something at 30%,
and you believe there's a 70% chance of it happening,
and it doesn't happen.
And if you are comfortable with understanding that uh 30% of the
time in a situation like that you're not going to win,
taking those value picks works a lot.
We've hit those a lot
with uh with really small percentage values in this particular election year.
A lot of these where we bought in very,
very low at,
you know,
$0.5
or 1 cent or 2 cents
on something we thought maybe had a 10% chance of happening.
And because of that we've hit a lot of those.
That's just value,
right?
It doesn't mean that they necessarily even go on to win,
but you can make a profit as it goes up to 10 or 15 or 20%
as time goes on.
So we look for that value all the time.
We're not always expecting to win those positions.
When it comes to elections,
you'll notice like when I say like,
you know,
we went 27 and 2
in this past election.
week during the primary,
a lot of times with elections there's so many options.
I feel like,
you know,
let's take
what I feel like are close to
sure things,
or I can find tons and tons of value,
and that's why we're able to hit high numbers,
but I don't expect to hit all those,
you know,
I,
I took a position on
American League Rookie of the Year,
a guy named Kaz Aakamoto.
He's on the Blue Jays,
and,
you know,
like he's an older guy,
uh,
he's not a 25-year-old rookie.
He's a,
you know,
in his 30s.
He came from Japan,
was a great player over in Japan.
And people didn't really think of him as a rookie,
and I took a position on him as a rookie.
I,
he's gonna wind up probably hitting 35 home runs this year
and probably finishing like 3rd.
And it's not gonna work.
I'm probably gonna lose my position on that,
but I feel comfortable with my process on that.
Uh,
not because,
uh,
and people are like,
oh,
well,
you just like the Blue Jays,
which is bizarrely true.
And if you don't know that about me,
I'm a Toronto Blue Jays fan.
Um,
uh,
but
actually that makes me less likely to make a Blue Jack.
I'm,
I'm more,
more likely to not do it.
I really like my process there and I'm happy about it.
I,
I said that about the Jalen Brunson on the cover of,
uh,
NBA 2K.
I like the process there,
even though we were wrong.
I like the process there.
I'm OK.
I'm comfortable losing that.
Kamala Harris,
I get,
I say all that basically to lead you to this,
which is
I have Kamala Harris will not run as a position
out of that 200 positions that are listed on PredictableShow.com,
and that was like the probably the worst one
because I was like,
what was I thinking?
Like her ego wasn't big enough to try this again.
Like I,
I don't know what I was thinking.
I I thought people were done with her,
and she'd realized that.
And that,
I don't know,
it seems insane to me now,
but
these things happen in prediction,
Marcus,
sometimes you're wrong.
Anyway,
uh,
let me show you,
uh,
what this looks like right now.
The Democratic nominee for president of the United States,
you say is Kamala Harris leading.
Well,
she's the big favorite,
right?
No,
she's not even in the top three.
She's the favorite in the polls right now,
not even in the top 3 to actually win it.
And can we zoom in maybe to like a month here real quick,
Adam?
You see the blue line on the top is Gavin Newsom,
who's been the favorite for a while.
Uh,
Jon Ossoff was,
uh,
2nd,
uh,
intermittently with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez,
but a big thing happened yesterday.
For the 1st time,
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has become the favorite,
the favorite
to be the nominee
for the president.
And,
and,
you know,
this is one thing where,
look,
I'm not a poll hater.
A lot of people are.
A lot of people hate polls.
A lot of people say never listen to polls.
That's not what I think at all.
And this is a guy,
it is coming from a guy who just,
uh,
got destroyed,
uh,
with Francesca Hong,
uh,
this week.
OK.
So I,
I realize that they are bad at times and,
and,
and mistakes
are made.
But what,
usually what we get out of polls,
and I think of this,
I try to explain it this way all the time.
Uh,
polling
is,
is a tool.
It is a,
it is a,
it is not a surgical tool.
It is a blunt object.
Polling can you tell you
typically
generalities.
It can tell you,
generally speaking,
what's going to happen.
It can't,
it,
it is not designed,
nor is it capable of telling you the difference in that Hong versus
Crowley race down to the 3000 votes that it wound up being the determinative factor.
You,
polls can give you generalities,
which is why typically I look for cushions in them.
Uh,
you know,
the 2024
election is a good example of that,
uh,
or excuse me,
2020.
Um,
I thought that Joe Biden was gonna win that election.
Now look,
I don't,
I didn't want him to win that election.
Uh,
frankly,
I did not think he was a very good president.
But that being said,
uh,
I did think he was going to win,
and I thought he had enough of a cushion that even if the polls were wrong,
that he would still win.
And,
uh,
you know,
of course there's more to it than just that.
There's fundamentals and there's fundraising,
and there's a million different things that go into
a model like that and a consideration like that.
But
one of the reasons was,
we had a little room to work with on that.
He was favored by,
I don't know,
I don't remember what the polling was,
but it was,
you know,
7 or 8 points.
He only wound up winning by a couple.
And so,
actually the polls were wrong in a lot of those states,
and they were wrong the way we kind of predicted they would be wrong.
Uh,
usually,
and when Donald Trump's involved in a,
in a,
in an election,
it,
the polls usually are wrong
and undercount what Trump will get.
But there was enough of a gap there that he wound up winning.
Again,
you could talk about.
Whatever you want to talk about on the outskirts of that election,
but that was,
that was part of the reasoning why
we did very,
very well in 2020.
If you,
uh,
were with us at the time,
we called the electoral count numbers exactly correct in that election,
and that wound up being very profitable for us,
but that was also just a pro,
you know,
partially a.
Um,
a position of trying to understand what the weaknesses of polling are.
Polling is great,
but this is a great example where prediction
markets are far vastly superior to polling.
Kamala Harris should not be the favorite
in a poll
for the Democratic National,
uh,
nomination.
It is possible she wins.
It is possible.
It would be completely bonkers and insane for the Democrats to do that.
But the reason she's ahead right now is not because she's actually the favorite,
it's because of name recognition.
She's still seen as a presidential person.
She is,
uh,
the Democrats that will nominate her.
The most recent person they voted for is Kamala Harris.
She's now in the rearview mirror as a person that they look back at and say,
gosh,
I wish she would have won.
That's how Democrats look at it.
They don't look at it as,
uh,
well,
you know,
she failed,
or,
you know,
they,
they think it was stacked against her for a million different reasons.
Anyway,
uh,
give me that presidential nomination,
uh,
count one more time.
Uh,
I think this nomination count is actually relatively,
uh,
pretty good,
uh,
honestly,
where it's priced.
Uh,
AOC at 17%,
Newsom now at 17%.
That's been tied since we started talking about it.
You see in third place,
Jon Ossoff,
which is,
I think he is a competitor.
He's a guy,
by the way,
I have a pretty decent sized position on
for November of this year to win in Georgia.
Um,
it has risen up into the 80s.
There may still be some value there.
Um,
scroll down though,
give me the other names.
What do we have?
Let's look at the list here.
AOC is first,
uh,
tied with Newsom at 17%,
Ossoff at 13%,
Kamala Harris at 9.5%. They see her
prediction markets here as the fourth choice.
Mark Kelly,
Pete Buttigieg,
Josh Shapiro.
Shapiro is an interesting one in that like,
he may very well be
the candidate they should choose in a lot of ways.
Like he comes off occasionally as moderate,
he's a very good communicator,
he's a popular governor in a,
in the swingiest of swing states,
Pennsylvania,
and yet they have him at 4.6%. I don't wanna say that a big reason for that is the,
the turning of the.
Democratic Party against Israel
and generally speaking,
uh,
interests aligned with Jews,
uh,
but,
uh,
you know,
I guess it's kind of a big reason
there.
Rahm Emanuel Andy Bashir is the Kentucky governor.
Uh,
JB Pritzker,
I mean JB Pritzker is not gonna win that nomination.
West West Moore is another one,
and there's an interesting value there on West,
on West Moore,
uh,
as I think he probably will run.
Uh,
he's another guy I have a position on to win his
race here even though there's not a ton of profit there.
He's basically a sure thing,
I think,
in Maryland.
Uh,
Rona,
after Sayed,
yeah,
I don't think that's happening.
Tallarico,
OK,
we're down to basically,
uh,
no one.
I wanna bring something up about this particular market.
And this is a key thing to understand
about this market.
It's probably the most popular market.
Did they,
what do you have a volume number on that?
I don't know if that's,
that's on that screen or not,
um,
that we were just looking at.
How much money goes into the presidential nominations markets,
tons.
If you wanna give me
178 million so far,
OK,
uh,
give me the 2028 presidential election winner.
This is the,
uh,
this is,
I don't know if it's,
uh,
is it person or is it party,
uh,
this next market.
Uh,
it is person.
Uh,
so the favorite
of all people
would be JD Vance,
#1,
Marco Rubio,
#2,
which is interesting that two Republicans would lead this in a,
in a,
in a race.
I think overall they're probably the slight underdogs in,
uh,
Gavin Newsom at 11%,
uh,
and it goes down.
Any other Republicans on that list,
I,
JD Vance and Marco Rubio are kind of the two top,
uh,
people that are being considered.
The next Republican
is Rhonda Santis at like 3%,
so.
That is,
uh,
then you have Donald Trump,
who would have to amend the Constitution to win,
but he's there at 3%.
Uh,
I actually have a,
I have a few shares of it.
I gotta be honest with you.
My guess is,
once we get past this midterms,
Trump at least floats it a few times,
and when he does,
it's gonna shoot up to 5%,
and I'm going to cash out.
That's just something I'm just telling you right now.
I don't know if that's true.
I'm just telling you right now it's going to be a fun trade
to watch because he can't constitutionally be president for a third term.
I wouldn't put it past him to try.
You know,
just,
just to float it,
just to kind of make,
make the media a little nervous.
I think that'll happen.
Anyway,
uh,
again,
how much is that,
and I missed the,
um,
uh,
volume in that market,
Adam,
do you have that?
Or
59 million to,
to for the who's gonna win there.
Plus you have the party version.
Anyway,
these are the most popular
pres uh markets
when it comes to politics on Calci and Polymarket and predicted and everywhere.
And the reason for that is,
it's kind of the thing we talk about the most.
It's like,
who's gonna win the Super Bowl this year,
is a lot more popular of a conversation than
who's gonna win
in week 6 in Jacksonville,
right?
Like that's just,
it's just the truth of the matter.
And
As an investor in these markets though,
you really have to think about,
um,
uh,
whether it's worth your money
to get into a market like this.
You want to put a marker position in,
the smallest position that we have to kind of like
put your,
put your opinion in,
fine.
Um,
there are things you can do in these markets.
I'll talk about them here in a second,
but it comes back to one of our constitutional amendments,
and that constitutional amendment,
of course,
the number of that is very,
very easy to remember,
and I always do remember.
That's one of the things that I do all the time.
I remember which number this is,
of course,
as I
fill
and fill,
what the heck is it?
It's one of,
I know it's on here.
Um,
it's not time equals risk.
It is,
ah,
number 7.
The Seventh Amendment to the
I'm very well prepared.
The Seventh Amendment to the predictable Constitution is know your APR
and,
uh,
it is,
uh,
it's really difficult,
honestly,
to know
something that's gonna happen in 2 years anyway.
It's hard to predict out 2 years.
This is a difficult,
difficult
race,
and if you think about what would happen in a race like this,
let's say you pick
JD Vance.
He's at 19%
to win the election.
That doesn't pay out
until
probably November 2028.
So now you're talking about,
if you're right,
getting,
even if everything goes perfectly with that investment,
you're getting 80% over two years,
which is good,
it's a good return.
However,
there's a lot of risk there.
You have actual challengers like a Marco Rubio who could.
I,
I think Vance is a much better value than Rubio,
uh,
personally.
I think Vance is gonna be the more likely candidate.
Um,
but
even you,
you have to get them there.
It won't get up to probably 50%
until
the summer of 2028.
So you,
you've got a,
that,
that range,
which is,
you know,
30 points and it would be a good return,
is,
is spread out by time.
You have that.
Then you have all the risks of,
who knows,
could be a Democratic year,
uh,
JD Vance could decide not to run,
uh,
another Republican could run.
Donald Trump Junior might jump in and Donald Trump might endorse him.
There's 100 different things that could happen,
so it's a risky market to get in in the first place,
and really the way to play those markets is kind of like the ups and downs of it,
if you want to get,
uh,
intricate.
The only other way I would say is if you,
if you,
if there's a long shot on that list who really kind of checks the box for you.
Uh,
that's something to consider.
If you have somebody at 1% that you think might go to 5% and you can kind of get out of it,
uh,
or,
uh,
or,
or something of that nature,
that's good.
And I would just say taking the no position on these people
is in a way
worse.
I have no positions cause I,
they're basically marker positions or small positions.
I'm sorry,
my voice is uh
cracking a little bit here.
Uh,
there's no,
if you take a no position on
JD Vance,
he's like,
you know what,
I think it's gonna be Marco Rubio or a Democrat.
You might win that,
but again,
you're talking about 2 years,
uh,
and getting it,
you know,
uh,
25% return in 2 years.
And
look,
If you're talking about comparing that to a traditional investment,
if you're talking about comparing that to your savings account,
it's wonderful.
If you're talking about doing what you can do here
in
the elections coming up,
in a primary next week,
in a,
in a close to a sure thing that's a,
that's,
you know,
resolving in a month,
uh,
your,
your capital can probably be utilized in a better way.
It's the most fun to predict the 2028 election.
It's not the best investment,
uh,
to get involved yet.
You will have plenty of time to use your capital and put it into those markets.
Right now,
keep your position small there cause you just don't want to tie up all your money
on something that you're not gonna get paid off for for multiple years.
Uh,
one last thing before we leave,
this is,
uh,
entertaining to me.
I don't know anything about I.
I don't know anything about this person.
I don't know anything about this story,
but I think it's funny.
Uh,
clavicular,
you're,
of course,
a huge fan,
I know,
uh.
He heard AOC broke up with his,
uh,
her fiance,
and it tweeted this,
I can fix her,
uh,
which is,
I don't know,
he's some internet personality if you don't know.
Uh,
she broke up with her boyfriend or her fiance,
and then he's stepping in and saying,
look,
give me a shot at this.
The reason why I bring this up is because Polly Market has listed market on this.
Will Clavicular and AOC confirm a relationship in 2026?
Not looking good,
honestly,
for Clavicular in this one.
He's at 2%,
actually like,
really,
just,
uh,
around 2%,
a 2% chance,
and it's down 1 cent.
So,
again,
another investment I would not necessarily recommend,
uh,
because,
uh,
but I think the no is a pretty sure thing there.
I would be,
we'd be,
I will say.
Crazier things have happened,
but I would be legitimately surprised
if that one
wound up becoming
a yes.
OK,
we're gonna take a break.
I have Pat Gray coming up in just a moment.
Don't forget to join us at predictableShow.com.
We have a live stream of the show.
We actually do the taping of the show live,
uh,
to,
uh,
everybody on SubStack.
Uh,
if you are a premium member,
it's free right now though,
if you wanna go check that out,
and you can see what kind of Goes on behind
the scenes and the commercials that we get prepared,
um,
uh,
you,
you get to kind of see,
uh,
everything that's going on,
and,
uh,
you can join and see all those pics,
uh,
that I have.
Many of them are stupid pics for 2028,
even though I just told you it was a terrible investment.
I still,
I can't resist.
It's just fun and it's interesting to me,
so
I still will jump in a little bit,
but your capital can do a better job probably in another market.
OK,
take a break,
back in a second.
I'm joined now by the one,
the only
Pat Gray,
host of Pat Gray Unleashed on Blaze TV and purveyor of all deliciousness
with Keexie cookies.
You can check that out at kexie.com,
the best cookies you're ever gonna eat.
Pat Gray,
thanks so much for coming on the program.
Great to be here.
Thank you,
Stu.
I'm really excited that you're here.
Me too.
Um,
yeah,
because I have a lot of questions for you.
Uh,
you know,
we,
we do this,
this show is about prediction markets.
We talk about prediction markets.
What do they tell us?
What can we learn from them,
uh,
you know,
is there any value in any of these markets?
And I've been watching your show
and you know,
for over the years we've occasionally had
what they call bugs
on the screen.
Um,
uh,
this is a,
you know,
a little TV thing that we do and like it'll be like
if there's an important thing and we're counting down the days,
you know,
55 days to the election,
85 days to the election,
or,
you know,
this thing's been going on for this time
and I'm watching your show and I've noticed
you have a little bug in your screen now in the corner of basically every broadcast,
which just says where's Mitch McConnell.
Well,
it is now,
uh,
day 61 of America held hostage
by Mitch McConnell,
and,
uh,
I'm,
I'm a little tired of it,
frankly.
I,
it's
inconceivable to me.
It's inconceivable that we know
really
nothing
about
his health status,
when he's coming,
if he's coming back,
we don't know any of it.
It's really strange,
and this is a guy obviously,
you know,
in leadership,
we're we're talking about for the country's purposes here,
having
your senators show up to work is an important thing,
uh,
that we,
we,
that we might
demand
as voters and citizens,
and we talked about this back in the day,
uh,
I remember us talking about it,
you know,
a couple of years ago when he had that weird
freeze.
And even at that time,
he should have been out.
He should have been out then.
I mean,
like,
look,
I have all the sympathy in the world for somebody
who's getting older and going through difficult health situations,
but like
this is not
the way a country is supposed to operate.
This is insanity.
I mean,
we,
we used to make fun of the Soviet Union for leaving these people
in office until they were 100 years old and couldn't do anything,
and,
and I,
we're just replicating this constantly.
Yeah,
we keep hearing.
The excuse that,
oh,
well,
he's older and he's,
he needs his privacy and
the man's a US senator.
Nobody is saying that all old people need to report to
the American people about how they're doing and how they're feeling,
and when they're going to go back to work.
I'm just kind of expecting that from a US senator.
And I guess it's too much to expect because
As much as we've asked,
even the governor of his state
has been demanding answers,
and they get none.
I mean,
supposedly
he's talked to Scott Jennings a few times and Scott
said again this week that he talked to him,
but
do we know that for a fact,
which is a weird situation.
I like Scott.
I do too,
you know,
he's,
he's a good guy,
and,
and I,
I,
I have no reason to doubt that what he's saying is true,
but it is strange that we have like one like
portal into this world that is just this guy who,
who's on CNN who just tells us everything's gonna be fine.
Even Scott has been saying,
well,
he values his privacy is all.
Men of that age do well
again,
US Senator,
OK,
I don't care how
valuable your privacy is,
you're not entitled to it.
In this particular case,
we need to know how he's doing
and if he's coming back,
you know,
we got the midterms coming up here pretty soon
and should probably know if,
uh,
you know,
who's,
if he's gonna fill out the term or what's gonna happen,
yeah,
because I don't remember what the rule is in Kentucky.
You know,
if,
if someone steps down and they've got a Democratic governor,
I don't remember.
Do you remember Kentucky apparently doesn't have the governor that's a senator.
I think they did that on election.
If I'm not mistaken,
I feel like they did that.
It was one state that did it recently where they were like,
OK,
I see that what's gonna happen here.
We better vote in new rules.
It might have been.
It might have been Kentucky if not it was somebody else.
Um,
there is a prediction market for this,
as there is pretty much for everything these days.
Uh,
will Mitch McConnell,
uh,
step down?
This is,
uh,
what it looks like right now,
and you kind of see.
It right after Trump's election,
it was up around the 45%
period,
held around between 15 and 25% for most of the time.
As the health things popped up recently,
it popped up to about 35%.
But right now it's at its low over the past
couple of years at about 7%.
And it's interesting because I've been getting this from people in Kentucky who,
when we've talked about this market,
they say,
I don't care what happens,
that man is not stepping down.
Like they don't believe they will,
they believe he will never give up power
by choice,
you know,
obviously,
uh,
you know,
there are health issues that he might not be able to overcome,
but he will never
willingly just step down.
Do you,
do you buy that?
I mean,
I think that.
I think that's probably accurate,
although he has said he's not.
I mean,
he's obviously not running,
so this will be it at the end of the year anyway,
but he's gonna try to play it out to the end of the year.
I think he is.
Yeah,
yeah,
I think he is.
Let me show you one funny thing.
I mean,
I,
it's not.
Funny.
But let me show you one funny thing
on this.
This is a Calci market,
and they want to make something very clear,
important information.
In the event of death,
the market will resolve to the last traded price prior to death unless a such
a price is not available and logically
consistent or representative of fair settlement value,
in which case the exchange may determine a fair value in its sole discretion.
They're basically like,
look,
we got it.
He might just die,
but don't be trying to,
uh,
figure out whether he's going to die because if he.
Gus,
we're not gonna pay out this contract just so you guys know.
So there's no prediction on whether or not he dies.
No,
they don't have any that that's that.
It's illegal anyway,
but,
um,
these markets don't allow any death markets.
There's some like international markets that occasionally will have more
controversial picks like that,
but anything US based doesn't have that.
But I mean that's,
it's a sad state of affairs.
It is.
And there are people who
believe he's dead already.
I
mean,
it's not funny,
but it kind of is.
Because
we shouldn't be going through this.
I mean,
this is Moittaba Khomeini material here.
They don't know if he's OK in Iran,
but
that's Iran.
This is the United States of America.
We should know.
It's,
it's,
uh,
and this is not just a senator,
right?
This was the Senate majority leader for a million years.
I get that he's not doing that anymore,
uh,
but still,
it is,
he's a very prominent guy.
He's very,
you know,
he still has a lot of influence,
and the fact that like we just don't know,
I,
I.
Again,
we're not asking about his sex life here.
Can the guy think?
Can he move?
Can he come to work at any point in the next 6 months?
You know,
the reporter who's been there the whole time,
uh,
Desiree
something or other,
I don't remember her last name.
But she had word
it's probably a month ago or a month and a half ago that
he was actually comatose and brain dead and they were gonna pull the plug
that I think that turned out to be inaccurate.
I'm not positive of that because we have we don't gotten any proof,
but
I mean that's how dire
some of the,
uh,
predictions have been is that he's already gone.
So I,
I don't think that's the case and
And I don't think Scott Jennings would make up
the fact that he talked to him this week.
Um,
but everyone was mocking his post on that when he was like,
I talked to him for 20 minutes and everyone just started,
you know,
mocking everybody was on the internet with him for 20 minutes.
I know I personally talked to him.
Oh,
you did about 20 minutes,
20 minutes.
He was dialed in.
It was a wide ranging discussion about a lot of different topics.
Yeah,
and I just want to make sure that
it's clear that we're consistent on this.
We called for him to step down when he had the 1st 1st time,
and
this is the same reaction I've had,
I had,
and you had.
When we were talking about Joe Biden as president.
Like,
what is going on?
What do you mean he hasn't met his cabinet in 2 years?
What are you talking about?
How can that happen?
It shouldn't be able to happen.
A senator is one thing,
it's bad enough.
President,
I still feel like we,
we need more investigations on this.
We can't just let this go.
It's,
it's gotta be something that the American people need to know.
We can't just have a,
uh,
hey,
well,
we turned off the office of the president for a couple of years.
That's not a constitutional option.
Can you imagine if it was Chuck Schumer?
Republicans would be out of their minds over this,
and rightly so,
and rightly so.
And we should also point out the
Republicans also had a congressman who disappeared for
multiple months in New Jersey,
uh,
and then we were just all supposed to accept that too.
Not OK.
Doesn't matter the party,
not OK.
Um,
let's talk about Michigan for a second.
You watched this election,
I know,
uh,
pretty closely.
Uh,
you're,
I know a huge fan of Abdul El Sayed,
big fan,
uh,
big supporter.
Uh,
were you at all surprised that he was in a state like Michigan,
which,
you know,
it's not some,
it's not California,
that a guy who's basically a democratic socialist was able to win statewide?
Yeah,
it's,
I,
you know,
it's kind of sweeping the country right now.
And
it's,
uh,
it's kind of inconceivable.
Uh,
5 years ago,
I wouldn't have believed this possible,
but,
you know,
we've seen some things change over the last few years,
and it's,
uh,
it's a little bit chilling to me that.
That these,
uh,
in some cases,
Islamists,
in some cases,
Islamist
socialist,
um,
you know,
Mamdani,
we've called him an
Islamunist for about a year now.
Uh,
I don't know if that title applies to El Sayed,
but it's pretty close.
I mean,
he's pretty out there,
pretty far out there.
He,
and by the way,
uh.
Just came out with an approval rating for Mamdani in New York and it's like 65%.
It was 69,
69%,
it's,
which is incredible.
Not believable.
Socialism often has this arc,
right where
the giveaways all come first,
the paying for all the consequences comes later.
So you,
this is not out of the ordinary when it comes to socialism or communism.
At first,
a lot of times it is popular,
uh,
it fades over time typically.
Um,
I wanna give you the market on the,
on the,
uh,
we have the,
uh,
the general election market,
because I think this is interesting and
while I don't want,
I'm not a socialist,
don't want a socialist to win,
um,
but I think him winning
is actually,
uh,
we're looking for the Michigan one,
guys,
by the way,
um,
is actually,
I think a good thing for Mike Rogers,
his opponent.
Um,
this is,
uh,
in that Michigan race
going up against Haley Stevens,
who's kind of like a normal-ish Democrat,
right,
uh,
is,
uh,
I think would have been more difficult for Rodgers than Abdul El Sayed.
This is,
by the way,
what the market looks like,
um,
and Patty,
you can see this,
uh,
you see the peak there,
which is about a month ago for that green line,
which is Abdul El Sayed,
after he,
you see him,
um,
as he kind of comes down.
Uh,
he has dropped and the Rodgers,
um,
percentage has risen
since Elsa had got that nomination.
Now,
you do see a little bit of a fall off here in the last couple of days.
I don't know,
maybe the market's correcting or whatever,
uh,
but generally speaking,
this is seen as Rodgers having a better chance.
And I,
you know,
look,
I,
I'm not hiding this.
I think Rodgers would be a better senator than Abdul Sayed or Haley Stevens,
frankly.
Uh,
but I mean,
I,
I have this thing that I,
I worry about the,
the same thing in,
uh,
Wisconsin.
We talked about the,
uh,
Francesca Hong
uh losing.
Do you,
as a person who's a conservative,
do you,
do you root for
the socialists who maybe is easier to beat,
or do you go the other way and root for the,
the maybe more moderate Democrat who might be harder to beat?
I,
I get,
I am conflicted.
I was really torn as well.
We talked about that on,
on the show yesterday
because,
um,
It
is it a good thing?
I,
I don't know anymore.
I really,
I,
you would think the socialists would be
more easily defeated,
but I don't know that that's a guarantee anymore.
It's kind of frightening,
even in a purple state
like Michigan,
uh,
or,
or Wisconsin.
These are close states in the presidential election these days,
but
I don't know which way this goes.
Um,
I want to take a quick break and come back with more with Pat Gray here in a second.
We have the midterms.
What,
what does Pat think about where the midterms are going?
Uh,
and,
and another one that Pat has,
has some expertise on and some information I did not know
about,
uh,
that could shape your position on this market.
Back with more in a second.
Welcome back to Predictable with Stu and Pat Gray joining us.
Pat,
uh,
Trump says Caroline Levitt resigning as a White House press secretary.
She says,
uh,
our wonderful White House press secretary is one of my trusted aides,
Caroline Levitt,
will be departing her role at the end of the month so
she can spend time with her beautiful young children and family,
and it does seem to be a really nice.
Uh,
warm family story here,
right?
Like this doesn't seem like the typical thing where,
like,
you know,
she's murdered 5 people behind the scenes and we don't know about it.
Like it just seems to be she just wants to spend time with her kids,
which is great.
It's great,
um,
the,
if you don't remember,
I just wanna run through this because there's a market on who's gonna replace her.
I don't get your opinion on this,
but
Sean Spicer was the first one.
Then Sarah Huckabee Sanders,
Stephanie Grisham,
Kayleigh McEnany,
and Caroline Levitt the.
Only one in the second term so far.
So this is a big decision
for the president.
Levitt,
I think,
did a pretty good job for him.
She was really good,
yeah,
um,
let's bring up this market and see the other names,
uh,
that we have as possibilities.
Um,
so Scott Jennings is the leader we just talked about Scott a moment ago,
uh,
and then Anna Kelly,
Alina
Haba,
we go down and do we,
can we scroll down to the names here?
OK,
uh,
more markets there we go.
So
no one really above like 25%,
I think basically people don't seem to know.
Some interesting names in here like,
I,
you know,
someone like Steven Chung,
I can't imagine would,
would do it.
Um,
you know,
uh,
Rachel Campos Duffy is an interesting name
there.
Sage Steele,
I don't think she would do it.
Carrie Lake.
Carrie Lake,
I think,
I don't know.
I mean,
she certainly could do it,
but she's very combative.
Laura Loomer,
there's no way.
Spencer Pratt's an interesting name.
I heard people talking about Spencer Pratt.
That would be fun,
I think.
I don't think it will happen,
but it would be fun.
It would be fun.
Tucker Carlson,
I'm gonna say
probably not.
No,
I don't think that,
I don't see that happening.
This is another thing I,
I talk to people all the time,
Pat,
because there's,
uh,
we talked about the presidential markets earlier on the show.
People are always like,
oh,
well,
Tucker Carlson run for president.
Do you have any idea how much money Tucker Carlson makes?
He,
he,
he might buy the Lakers next.
I like this guy is rolling in money,
and I know I'm not saying that's the most important thing to him or anything,
but.
To take a job,
to get beat up by the press every day,
I mean,
no chance,
right?
No,
any of those names seem interesting that you would think,
um,
Alina Haba
might be good,
and she's a lawyer,
yeah,
I think so.
She's a lawyer by training,
uh,
and then Natalie Harp,
you know,
they're really close.
I could see that happening.
You know who I'd love to see do it,
but it'd be a step down for him is Steven Miller.
That guy
takes,
he does not know crap from anybody.
I love him or hate him.
You have to admire that he just does not care.
You do.
It would be fun
if he took that job,
and it was kind of fun when,
uh,
when Caroline Levitt was out
with the baby,
uh,
for a couple of months,
and they had a kind of a rotating group of people that handled it from time to time.
He was one of those,
and so was Scott Bessant,
and they did an OK job,
and
Steven Miller was
exceptional,
exceptional.
He,
I mean,
look,
the left like literally despises him.
I think they do maybe more than Trump.
I think it's possible,
which is a high bar to clear,
uh,
but,
uh,
yeah,
I don't,
I don't think that would be a role he would take on a full-time basis.
Um,
let me just give you,
let's do the midterms here real quick,
uh,
Pat.
So this,
this particular market shows where,
you know,
Republicans and Democrats will go.
Will there be a Democratic sweep,
47% chance.
Uh,
will Democrats get the House but not the Senate?
That's at 38%.
Republican sweep at 15% and the one that basically
can't happen,
I would say,
uh,
mostly is a Republican House and a Democratic Senate.
That would be a very,
very strange outcome
out of this election.
What are your feelings right now?
I mean,
the polling
isn't great for,
for Trump and approval rating,
but it,
it,
it hasn't like fallen apart for Republicans and their chances.
How do you feel?
How do you see?
I'm,
I'm still
mildly hopeful
that,
you know,
they can hang on to at least the Senate
and.
Uh,
I,
but it's hard because gas prices are up.
I mean,
they haven't gone down.
The war is still dragging on.
We've got some
headwinds that we're facing right now,
the Republicans are facing.
Um,
I don't think they keep,
The majority in both,
yeah,
the house seems that's almost impossible,
I think,
you know,
from history,
Pat,
right,
like this is just
when you have a president in one party and then then you have that first midterm
with
with very few exceptions,
it's an unmitigated disaster.
And the war is not helping right now.
Yeah,
is that the thing that you think is the biggest key?
Is it affordability?
Is it the war?
I mean,
I guess that goes along,
I think,
yeah,
they're kind of together because I think the war is causing unaffordability.
And,
you know,
gas prices here in Texas just went up 50 cents a gallon.
Uh,
I don't know why exactly,
um,
but,
uh,
you know,
it's pretty volatile.
It goes up,
it comes back down,
it goes up,
it comes back down.
The President said yesterday that everything's fine.
I'm not sure I feel that way.
No,
I,
I agree.
You know,
the war is fine,
the prices are fine,
they're all coming down.
I'm not seeing that.
Is there potentially,
Pat,
a lesson to be learned
from our,
uh,
previous,
uh,
prestigious president of the United States,
Joe
Robinette Biden?
Uh,
who tried this approach,
right?
Basically said biodyomics is working,
you guys just don't understand it.
That didn't lead to necessarily positive things.
And I think it hacks people off,
you know,
when you're telling them they're doing better than they know they are.
That's not a good thing.
And I,
I think,
I think President Trump kind of fell into that yesterday and,
um,
was telling
everybody how good things are,
and I,
I don't think that's reflected in reality right now.
How would you fix it
if you're Trump,
like,
and you,
you know,
again,
Trump can't do this all by himself,
but like what,
what moves would you try to make to,
to make it possible for your party to hold on?
Well,
we
gotta get out of Iran,
uh,
except you can't leave it
the way it is now.
So
I guess you bomb the crap out of them and then get out of Iran.
Declare victory and leave.
It's really tough,
really tough.
I don't know.
There's not a lot the president can do
at this particular moment to lower grocery prices.
I think the war's got to be won and then over
before that's gonna happen.
And we're less than 90 days away from this election.
So you don't,
you know,
people will have their mind made up,
what,
at least 1 month before early.
Voting is gonna start.
We should look at September 18th,
the first one,
September 18th.
See,
look at that.
Pat's doing the research for the show because I was just about to ask,
we should get the numbers,
but we should know what that we should,
let's get the numbers and dates,
Adam,
of,
of all these,
uh,
states so we can talk about it as it comes down because that's,
that's not far away.
That's a month away.
It's about a month away,
yeah,
um,
last one for you because this is,
you've talked a lot about this.
Will the US confirm
that aliens exist?
Now,
you've done a lot of coverage on this,
and because there are weird videos and the government is releasing
strange things that I don't think I ever thought they would be
releasing.
They,
you know,
as of right now,
let's show the market real quick.
Um,
will they,
this is,
uh,
there's a few different options here.
Before 2027,
there's a 6% chance before 2028,
a 17% chance before 2029.
Uh,
a 20 before Trump's term ends,
basically is,
is a 23 or 29%.
My eyes are terrible,
23%,
um.
You know,
I think whether they're true or not,
the government saying that that outwardly is,
is a,
is a high hurdle to clear,
um,
but what do you,
what do you think from the releases?
Is there any indication that would happen?
Well,
let me throw in one variable that you might not be counting on right now.
Um,
the
blind Bulgarian mystic Baba Vga.
Oh,
Babavanga,
who,
who died,
of course,
in 1996,
but before she did,
she made some predictions for 2026,
2 of which.
Supposedly,
according to her followers have already come true.
Now,
there's 3 more sometime during the course of the year,
and one of them is
that by November,
uh,
we will see the first absolute proof of extraterrestrial life because a spaceship.
That's about 1 mile long is going to show up over the United States of America.
That to me
would confirm the existence of aliens,
and,
uh,
I don't even need the president telling me if that happens.
So,
so I'm pretty excited about that.
That's supposed to happen.
Babavanga said.
By November,
by November,
so definitely not in December.
There's no chance of it happening.
There's no chance.
It probably not in August either.
I'm thinking
in November it's going in November.
So a November date would qualify.
It doesn't have to be before November,
like October.
It's gonna be probably in November.
That comes
straight from Babavanga,
we the blind Bulgarian mystic,
right,
30 years ago.
Yes,
see,
like you,
you,
you come to the show to try to profit in these markets.
Look at this information we're giving,
right?
No one else is talking about this.
No other prediction market show is getting you Baba Vga information.
They're not doing that,
Pat.
They're not.
No,
and you need that
important information to consider.
They're trying to hide it from you.
They are trying to,
are you,
uh,
so,
uh,
what's going on with Kexie?
We have any big?
Big stuff coming up.
Uh,
well,
uh,
August is our,
uh,
coffee cake cookie month,
so that's a pretty good one.
People love that
because I think I feel,
I feel like I've had coffee cake,
but I don't know if I've ever had the coffee cake.
The cookie coffee cake cookie is really good.
It's got that delicious strudel on top,
you know,
that really cinnamon crumb stuff is,
yes,
it's the good thing of all time,
so good,
those.
I mean,
even normal cookies that are or breads that are like a coffee cake
have a lot of butter in them.
I can't even imagine
the amount of butter that is in a Keexie version of that.
There's a rumor that there's a decent amount of butter in those cookies,
maybe a shortage in Texas.
Um,
uh,
that's fantastic.
Uh,
people can go to kexie.com and order them.
You'll love those cookies if you're looking for gifts and stuff.
I can't recommend them highly enough,
you know,
because,
look,
people have already had Tiff's treats.
They've had them already,
OK.
These are way,
way better.
You will,
and you'll get a special like,
holy,
those cookies were amazing like a week later,
uh,
if you give them as a gift or you bring them to a party,
can't recommend Kexie High and Highland enough,
and of course Pat Gray unleashed,
uh,
as well.
Uh,
last one for you before we go,
Talarico.
And Paxton,
are you
nervous about this yet?
Very,
yeah,
very.
He's up 47-45.
I mean,
the guy's a freak.
He's insane.
Tallarico,
you're talking about Tallarico.
Yes,
now Ken Paxton,
Paxton has some issues,
but,
uh,
I'm,
I'm just saying
set him aside and vote for him.
That's all I'm saying.
Don't worry about any if you have a problem.
Problem.
Forget you had the problem and just go that way and just vote for it.
OK,
yeah,
that's one where I get in a lot of questions about that one
because I still feel like a lot of Republicans will come home in November.
Uh,
people who liked Cornyn,
for example,
will be like,
alright,
like I don't want this weirdo to be my senator,
meaning Tallarico,
um,
even if they don't like Pakistan all that much.
But if the Republicans don't spend money,
and I,
there's part of me that thinks Cornyn is behind the scenes being like,
you know what,
don't bail him out.
You know,
I don't,
I,
I think he's got a lot of power in that realm,
and I wonder if they're gonna spend money.
If they don't spend any money,
he could lose.
Uh,
so that's like a fifty-fifty,
I think actually now for the first
time Tallarico's ahead in the prediction markets,
uh,
for the first time.
Uh,
so
if you think he's got,
if you think Paxton's gonna win,
there's some big value there,
but,
uh,
wow,
that's quite a statement for a state like Texas.
Pat Ray,
Pat Ray Unleashed,
thanks so much for coming on and join us.
Appreciate it.