Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
How do I say this?
This is gonna be a frustrating episode,
but maybe great for you,
and we'll get to that in a second cause we have
to talk
about Hong.
Yes,
Wisconsin's primary last night,
if you missed the live stream,
what a freaking rollercoaster.
We have audience winners and losers.
I will tell you every position
that I had on last night's election,
the good and the
very,
very bad.
And
we shall amend the Constitution
of predictable.
We do that
next.
Oh,
what a night last night.
It was incredible.
Honestly,
we did,
I think,
a 4-hour livestream.
I didn't expect you to hang out for the entire thing,
but if you were able to join us for some of it,
uh,
it was a really fun time as we watched,
like a lot of it was interesting,
but really the,
the,
the star of the show
was Francesca Hong.
Uh,
she
Had a very up and down evening
and uh it was really amazing to watch in real time.
If you like prediction markets,
if you like understanding the elections,
if you like cutting through all the nonsense of the mainstream media,
go to predictableShow.com.
There,
you can sign up for free.
Watch,
uh,
I mean,
most of the stream was free,
uh,
last night,
uh,
but we did also give you a premium subscriber
chat as well that went well into the evening.
And it was just bonkers,
frankly,
the entire time.
It was a lot of fun and we had all of my picks were up there in advance.
Uh,
if you're a premium subscriber,
you get that,
you get a great community of people talking about their positions and when,
how they won and how they lost and honestly,
there's so much
information there,
it's worth the resource just for that.
So,
join us PredictableShow.com.
Now,
one of the things,
I don't know if this counts
as a,
as part of the benefits of being a subscriber.
To predictableShow.com,
but
I asked,
uh,
this morning
the question.
What should the name of the Hong election slash trading roller coaster be?
Threw a couple out there.
Hong gone.
Going,
going hong.
Wrong Hong
The Thanksgiving turkey.
Give me your ideas and your horrible puns.
And you absolutely came through.
Harris wrote,
ding dong Hong is gong.
This is gonna be,
I'm not gonna be gonna get through this stupid segment.
Discussions in darkness says
high on the Hong.
Brian A,
the Hong ideas.
Scott says going going Hong.
John Kelly,
uh,
Hongon Fe.
So stupid.
Justin says
the Wisconsin Thanksgiving turkey drop,
a little,
uh,
WISC,
uh,
Thanksgiving
turkey drop
instead of the WKRP.
Thanksgiving turkey drop,
of course,
Stephanie at the beach writes Hunger Games.
Rob L hung so wrong.
Uh,
we've got,
uh,
the Crawley Crawl,
uh,
from
Paul.
Uh,
Christian Hong,
if you love Jesus,
you know what that means.
Uh,
and this one,
if she won,
would have been good,
but since she did not,
I will say this one doesn't work.
Me love you Hong time.
That's all of those,
all of those were,
were not right.
I hope you understand that they are very,
very hung.
83 days until the midterm elections and so many
more puns in that time coming your way.
I honestly,
I don't really wanna do the show anymore.
I don't really wanna trade prediction markets anymore.
I don't wanna talk about politics anymore.
Just wanna come up with funny names
for elections.
That's what I wanna do.
Thanks so much for joining us on Predictable with Stu.
The race ended
thusly.
David Crowley.
I mean,
in an absolutely unbelievable win,
39.8% of the vote,
uh,
won by
about 4000 votes,
a little bit less than that.
39.3% of the vote for Francesca Hung.
I will say,
one of the worst polling misses
that I can remember.
And here's,
I was almost,
I was thinking about this last night cause I,
we,
we were up till,
I don't know,
midnight,
uh,
central streaming,
and then I went to bed,
but I didn't,
I couldn't fall asleep because I,
I get too pumped up for this stuff.
I love it.
And I started thinking,
and,
and the production team's gonna hate this idea,
but I was starting to think I might
need to develop state-level constitutions on the show.
Because
what we should do,
a state-level constitutional amendment for the state of
Wisconsin is never believe polling in Wisconsin.
That's a new,
I,
I don't know,
maybe we'll roll those out eventually.
But
holy crap,
guys.
I mean,
every single poll
had hung up by 20 points or more.
And if,
and if it was one poll,
you'd throw it out the window.
So cause sometimes there's big misses.
It was poll after poll after poll
after poll,
all showing the same thing.
One of the most recent polls
was,
uh,
was hung over a guy who had already dropped out by 25 points,
and Crowley was in 3,
like 35 points behind.
I might remind you.
That this man
who won this race,
David Crowley.
This man dropped out of this race in July.
He didn't drop out of the race last time,
he dropped out of a race a few weeks ago.
He dropped out of the race.
And then they dropped out of the race to
kind of codify the race around a moderate candidate,
uh,
you know,
again,
air quotes on the moderate.
Uh,
she came in,
she had problems with her campaign,
she dropped out.
Then the governor came in and said,
I endorse this guy who's dropped out.
He gets back in
and somehow wins.
And when you look at the polling,
honestly,
they had hung around 40%.
That part of it was probably true.
The problem was every other voter
and for all of the candidates that dropped out,
pretty much
went over
to David Crowley.
And it was an absolutely incredible night,
a roller coaster night.
Let me show you the graph from Cal Cal sheet.
This is what it looked like.
You see the ups and the downs and the ups and the downs
and the ups and the downs and the ups and the downs.
I mean,
every single one of these
was a wild roller coaster.
You see it bouncing back wildly from 25 to 75 over
and over and over and over and over and over again,
which in what was once a stable race.
Remember,
Francesca Hong comes into this night
at 95%
to win,
and she winds up losing.
Now this has cut off before
she actually
winds up losing.
But as I was going through this,
I was thinking to myself.
You can play some a market like this really,
really stupidly.
Or
You could play it
perfectly.
So I give you.
The perfect trade
What if
you called every single twist and turn.
The perfect way
You wound up
with the perfect trade.
Let me show you
how it was done.
You start
with $100.
You buy Crowley at 4% at the beginning of the evening,
and you sell him at 73%,
bringing your bankroll up to $1,825.
That's step one.
Step two,
you take that $1,825.
You buy Hong.
At 27%,
you sell Hong at 53%,
your total bankroll up to $3,582.
Step three,
you take that $3,582 you buy Crowley
at 47%,
and then you sell Crowley at 61%,
your bankroll up to $4650.
Step 4.
You take that $4650 you buy Hong at 39%,
and you sell Hong
at 55%,
your total bankroll up to $6,557.
Step five.
You take that $6,557 you buy Crowley at 45%,
you sell Crowley at 86%,
your total bankroll up to $12,531.
Step six.
You take that $12,531 you buy Hong at 14%,
you sell Hong at 72%,
upping your bankroll to $64,446.
Step 7.
You take that $64,446 and you buy Crowley
at 28%,
and then you sell Crowley at 65%,
your bankroll up to $149,607.
Step 8.
You take that $149,607 and you buy Hong
at 35%,
you sell Hong
at 72%,
your bankroll up to $307,762.
Step 9.
You take that $307,762 and you buy Crowley at 28%.
And then you sell,
I think Crowley,
I have that labeled wrong,
at 43%.
Total bankroll,
$472,635.
Step 10,
you take that $472,635 you buy Hong at $57
you sell Hong
at $75
for a total bankroll of $621,888.
Step 11.
And then the final step,
you take that $621,888 you buy Crowley at $25
you sell
Crowley,
actually,
not even at $750 you could ride that one all
the way up to $1000 because he wound up winning.
Your total bankroll,
$2,487,551 and that,
my friends,
is how to spend an evening
turning $100 into $2.5 million.
In 11
easy steps.
What a night that was.
It was a lot of fun.
And there was a lot of lessons to be learned,
lessons that
your wonderful host of this program,
maybe didn't learn
until after.
The Hong election was over.
I will tell you about every single position I took on last night's election,
and I will tell you they all live on this fancy card right here.
Wrote them down myself.
It was one of the most frustrating exercises
I've ever been through in my entire life.
I
It was infuriating,
and I'll tell you about it next.
All right,
audience,
winners and losers who did well last night?
Let's get right to it.
Gammapa Knight says,
Dagnabbit stew,
you made me lose 7 cents.
LOL.
Otherwise,
I did pretty good.
I started out at $41
and some change in my account.
Now I'm over 52.
Congratulations.
Very,
very good.
Dark Horse 1791
says,
it's been amazing.
Buy between 10 and 35,
sell between 50 and 65,
rinse and repeat.
With the other candidate
regardless of final fishing up,
uh,
finishing up at least
150% tonight.
Yes,
congratulations.
Couple of winners there.
Now.
Is this real?
Is this really Scottylicious?
Scottylicious,
a premium subscriber.
Welcome,
Scottylicious.
This is a guy who's made $2 million on prediction markets.
When I tell you,
the community is awesome
as on the premium tier
of predictableShow.com.
I am not kidding you.
This is one of the top prediction market traders in the world,
and he's sitting in there chatting with you about prediction markets.
This is so awesome.
Scottylicious,
uh,
he's a legend.
He's,
we did a,
a legend,
uh,
interview with,
um,
uh,
predictable Legends interview with
Scottylicious not that long ago.
You can go watch that.
And there's also a bonus Q&A if you're a premium subscriber.
So happy to have him as part of the community.
Wow,
that's really,
really cool.
Although he didn't have a great night.
He didn't have a great night.
He says,
I was bonding in the 90s,
buying,
that means like buying uh,
what looks like a sure thing in the 90s,
uh,
re-upped Hong between 29 and 35.
Originally it was gonna stay away,
but thought about the progressive tradition in Wisconsin and those
huge polls and got tempted and went way too heavy,
said David Ben Soussan,
uh,
AKA Scottylicious.
I will say,
I had the same thoughts.
Uh,
I went down the exact same road.
The progressive history had,
you know,
it really,
I thought for sure.
Uh,
Hong was gonna win.
Uh,
and,
uh,
you know,
again,
the First Amendment of our Constitution,
a sure thing,
always has air quotes.
Very,
very true.
Uh,
Paul Friedman had,
had a different,
uh,
opportunity,
uh,
last night.
He says he cashed out on Crowley and Hong.
He won on both.
Great night,
and he paid for the predictable show premium subscription for the rest of the year.
Congratulations to Paul.
That is awesome.
Rob didn't do as well.
He says he took a bath on Lindell and Norman.
No,
but I hope I got.
Enough smalls out there to make up for it.
Did well on Sanford.
No,
that was a,
that's a,
a good position actually recommended by
someone in the predictable show.com community,
uh,
that was,
uh,
having,
uh,
Sanford
to not advance,
uh,
that particular candidate.
Uh,
Stephanie writes,
wiped out on Lindell,
thought about getting out before it started,
uh,
and didn't,
um,
that,
that might apply to,
uh,
we're about to amend the constitution,
not predictable,
OK?
We're about to do that in just moments.
Stay tuned for that,
cause it might have something to do with that last comment.
Catch 451 says,
I bought Crowley Lowe
and,
uh,
sold for a profit.
I should have put a bigger position in.
That's what,
that's how I always feel.
I was talking to someone last night who did big numbers on,
uh,
on the Hong back and forth,
and I was like,
oh,
congratulations,
you did well.
He goes,
yeah,
but I,
I bought it like 4 and I sold at 16.
I only made 4 times my money,
went all the way up to 70.
It's like,
yeah,
you quadrupled your money though.
I mean,
like,
that is part of the story there.
Usually something you'd be happy about,
but
It's really hard at times,
honestly,
to celebrate those wins even when they come along.
When you have them,
celebrate them
because they're not always there,
as,
uh,
some people found out.
I'm not gonna say names.
Um,
Idaho handyman writes,
made almost 1,700% on Hang Crowley.
Roller coaster and my anxiety was through the roof.
I will say it was a little stressful.
Stressful,
but fun.
Until
today.
When I went upstairs,
and we in my office upstairs,
and before we do these shows of like the review
of what our positions were.
I go upstairs and I write them all down on a fancy note card,
OK?
And I write it on every single one,
and what I write is I write the name
and what race it was,
and then I,
uh,
write a check mark or an X,
so I can remember whether I got it right or whether I got it wrong.
So let me give you
every single position
I took in last night's election.
Wisconsin 04,
Democrat,
Moore.
We wanted yes and we got that correct.
Minnesota uh rep uh Republican Senate nomination.
This is one we talked about for a couple of months beforehand.
Michelle Tafoya,
we were high on her,
made a very nice profit on Michelle Tafoya.
Yes,
that was correct.
And we also had some no positions there.
York,
no,
correct.
Schwartz,
no,
correct,
and White,
no,
correct.
Connecticut 01,
we had uh Bronin,
yes,
and we won that.
Wisconsin 07,
we had Eben.
Now this was an interesting position because it was a latter position.
You'll notice this,
we do this from time to time.
We'll buy something very,
very cheap,
and we will sell.
Out of it almost immediately.
On this particular case,
I bought Eben at 1 cent
and sold,
uh,
sold.
I mean,
I feel weird selling I sold her
because then I feel like a
trafficker.
Uh,
but no,
I just,
I sold her contracts,
uh,
at 2 and 3 and 4 or something like that.
I was up a total of about 55 to 5,
55 or 55% or 56%.
I can't quite read my writing,
but it was right around there.
Uh,
on a latter position as I got out of that,
so it was profitable,
though she did not win,
but that was a profitable trade.
Yes.
Uh,
uh,
Ehrmanning,
no,
which was also correct.
Wisconsin,
03,
Burge,
Democrat,
no,
that was correct.
Cook,
yes,
that was correct.
Minnesota,
08,
Gulbranson,
no.
That was correct.
Swanson,
yes,
that was correct.
Minnesota Democrat governor,
of course,
Klobuchar,
easy one.
I can't give myself too much credit on that one,
but we did have that and,
uh,
had a pretty big position in it.
So,
you know,
a couple percent here help.
Uh,
we got a yes on that one as well.
Uh,
Vermont Republican Governor Scott,
kind of the same story.
Yes,
that was correct.
Can I remind you,
by the way,
if you're a premium tier subscriber,
you get all these picks
ahead of time.
Got a database of over 200 of them that are listed on the website.
And we give you a bunch in the chat.
A bunch of these were in there.
Vermont
Democrat Governor Richards,
no,
correct.
Jane,
yes,
did very well on that particular market.
You might be saying right now,
gosh,
this doesn't seem that frustrating.
Everything seems to be going swimmingly,
doesn't it?
It does seem that way,
doesn't it?
Minnesota 05,
Omar,
Elon Omar,
again,
another small profit,
but we'll take it.
Yes.
Minnesota Democrat,
uh,
Senator Flanagan,
yes.
Correct.
We did another latter philosophy with Minnesota Represent uh excuse me,
Republican Governor Quals.
Bought him at 0.3%,
sold almost immediately half my shares at 0.6%,
so that paid for the trade,
and then laddered up a few more profits.
We were up,
I think,
30 or 40% on that trade.
We're happy with that,
very,
very happy.
That was a yes.
Uh,
Mike Lindell,
interesting story.
Uh,
Mike Lindell,
uh,
we were profitable on him as a no position.
We took that at 70,
uh,
or,
or took it at 30 and rode it up to 70 on the no.
Uh,
and then took a little slice of that profit
and went back in on Lindell.
Yes,
I thought he was underpriced yesterday.
He wound up losing,
but overall,
both trades
on Lindell profitable,
so that's a checkmark.
Brad Smith in Wisconsin 06.
Yes,
we got that one right,
very narrow election.
Got that one right.
Connecticut 05,
Republican Shea,
yes.
Got that correct.
South Carolina,
Republican Senate,
Yvette,
no.
Correct.
Fry,
no,
correct.
Gowdy,
no.
Correct.
South Carolina advanced to the next round.
Sanford,
no.
Did very,
very well on that,
thanks to whoever that subscriber was who recommended
that particular market,
did very well on that one,
and that was also correct.
Connecticut Governor,
Democrat Lamont,
an easy one,
but yes,
correct.
We did miss
on whether Norman would,
would,
uh,
would,
uh,
advance.
Took a small position later on in the election,
so that one was wrong.
And you might be saying,
gosh,
that,
and the Norman thing aside,
that was a pretty good night.
Lots and lots of wins there,
boys and girls.
And that's true.
But there's one race I didn't mention yet.
One race on my sheet.
It doesn't mention it.
It's right up here,
right at the top.
Mhm.
Wisconsin Democratic governor.
Hong
I said yes
I don't know if you've heard the news,
but she lost.
Despite being up in the polls by 20 points.
Despite being a progressive.
In a series of races where we've seen progressives win and win and win and win and win,
despite it occurring
in the birthplace of American progressivism.
She lost
Now I had bought in at a very good price
on our good friend,
Francesca
Hong.
I thought it was an incredible price.
I had bought in at an average of 77 cents.
77%?
Ride that up,
23% profit on a 77% investment,
you're talking what?
30% profits on something that a lot of people,
a lot of people were calling
a sure thing.
And if you remember me talking to you about this race,
there were many,
many times,
cause you go into that race and you say,
OK,
this looks like she's gonna win,
and she starts dropping,
and you say,
oh,
maybe this is what's going on,
you're not sure.
And then it settles into a normal sort of race,
where you're like,
wait a minute,
now I understand what this is.
This is not the blowout that we expected.
This is a very,
very close race.
This is a race that could go either way.
The rest of the night has been going very well.
Maybe I should consider
when Francesca Hong gets up to 75 cents,
let's say,
just selling.
All my shares for a little bit less of a profit.
Perhaps you might think to yourself,
what about the time that she got ahead in the actual vote count?
Why not at that point,
sell your shares?
Maybe it's 65 or 70.
But no,
no,
boys and girls.
I went down with the ship.
I took that 77 cents,
and I took it down through 70 and 60,
and 50,
and 40 and 30,
and then back up to 70,
and then back down to 20,
and then back up to 70.
All over the place,
and you know where it wound up?
A big fat
0.
That's where it wound up,
0%,
because all that time I kept thinking she's gotta be able to pull this off.
I talked about it on the stream.
I was a little distracted by streaming,
but that's no excuse whatsoever.
I took that puppy all the way from 77 cents,
and I,
like a man,
took it all the way to 0 and wiped out tons
of the profit that I made in all these other markets.
In fact,
I wiped out most of the profit that I made in these other markets,
including
a long-time position that I had made a bunch on on Michelle Tafoya.
I basically threw it to the wolves.
The truth is
I held my hong too long.
I got
I got stuck
with my hong in my hand.
And it's very,
very disappointing.
I experienced shrinkage
in my hong position.
And I mismeasured my hung.
And that's why
today we amend the constitution
of
predictable with stew.
It is time to add
the 17th Amendment to the Constitution,
a lesson I had to learn
with a big punch in the hong.
The 17th Amendment to the Constitution
shall forevermore be known.
As this
A smaller loss.
Is a win.
A smaller loss is a win.
I could have come out of that freaking night
with one of the best nights of the entire election.
I could have come out of that night
with one of the most profitable nights of the entire
Run we've had so far here at Predictable.
And instead,
I came out with a middling
mush.
That's what I,
that's what happened to me.
Where's the thing?
Let me,
let me give me the card again.
Last night
In
this election,
I went 27 and 2.
I went 27 and 2,
and I'm complaining
because I
oversized my
huh.
Oversized,
I went magnum.
I didn't need magnum.
I went magnum.
With my hong
And then I wrote it all the way down instead of selling at 75,
or 70,
or 65,
or 60,
or 50.
I could have
erased a giant loss from my ledger that wiped out tons of the profit
that I made in other great picks from the rest of the night,
but I didn't do that.
So now I have to amend the constitution,
and I have to make it
an annoying odd number,
but this is what happens
unpredictable list too.
When we learn lessons,
we amend the constitution so we don't
smash our face
the next time this goes on.
So I hope you enjoyed watching the stream last night and,
and watching me kind of unknowingly.
I didn't really realize it was happening at the time,
but it,
it happened.
I lost my hong.
I went 27 and 2,
and the 17th Amendment to the Constitution is
a smaller loss
is a win.
OK.
That was quite an evening.
We have more to come on the show.
Join us,
uh,
if nothing else,
for the hong puns,
but everything else that's offered on PredictableShow.com.
Man,
what a fun community this is.
It's a great group of people who are really,
really smart and probably could have told me that.
Before
I amended the constitution,
they probably stayed out of the way of that mistake.
I didn't,
but I'm going to be honest with you,
when I smashed my face into a wall.
All right,
predictableShow.com.
Join us there,
back in a second.
Welcome back to Predictable
with Stu.
I wanna bring on Brenton Evans.
He is the president of Predictable Media.
What a title.
And he joined me for the live stream last night,
uh,
watching the,
uh,
whole Hong mania
go down.
You actually did way better than I did in this particular,
uh,
election,
Brent.
I mean,
it was,
uh,
it was,
it was frankly annoying to hear your success.
Yes,
I mean,
I was just honking around all night,
just,
just waiting for my profits.
Uh,
I will say that.
Just like you had the
magnificent rundown of things,
I felt
great about everything
until
Mike
Little Hong Lindell,
cause he's,
he's a loser just like Hong was.
He's the little Hong.
He just killed all my profits,
so I am,
I'm,
I'm forever going to
resist the,
uh,
the urge to buy my slippers or my pillow
because of what he did to me in the markets last night.
But
just,
just so I can brag a little bit
on,
uh,
on yesterday because
I,
I really,
and I'll,
and I'll share my numbers.
I have no problem with sharing my numbers,
uh.
I felt really good about buying.
Probly at 4 cents,
1000 shares at 4 cents,
so around $40.
I sold it at 12 cents.
So I should have been happy with that profit.
I bought more at 15 cents.
And then more at 18 cents,
and then I sold all of those at 25 cents.
It's incredible.
Right,
OK,
hang on.
Then I bought no
at 47 cents and 33 cents thinking that he was not gonna win
and sold those
and so on Crowley I did fairly well.
I did well as
on the home side of things.
I bought No early on at $3.84
1000 shares,
but I went the opposite direction.
You wouldn't think I,
you would,
I would have
on paper had the best night ever
if I would have just known.
But basically in reverse,
I did the same thing.
I sold
the position at 10 cents.
I sold half of it at 10 cents,
half of it
at 12 cents,
and then I was out.
Then I bought yes
at 75 cents thinking she was going to win.
And then I have 10 more transactions
where I'm just hanging on to my Hong
position
for way too long
and end up.
You already listed about 10.
How many trades did you do?
Well,
you were on the live stream with me,
they were.
Within,
you know,
0.2% points,
most of the night,
like it was
a bizarre topsy-turvy,
you know,
what's gonna happen?
What's coming out of
Oshkosh,
what's coming out of,
you know,
what other arena part of Wisconsin that's gonna be,
you know,
a,
a surge for Hong or a surge for Crowley,
but it was a Crowley rally,
and I just,
I,
I ended up.
21.1%
ROI,
so I feel
like I made out a head,
but it should have been.
It should have been such a,
I,
I should be feasting tonight.
I should be,
you know,
Dom Perion or something.
You're just like the other guy I talked about earlier who
you get upset
when you make 3 and 4 times your money because
you could have made 10 or 12 times your money.
Uh,
but overall,
I will tell you,
Brennan,
this is someone I can speak to this with,
uh,
some level
of expertise.
Uh,
plus 21% is better than -100%.
Um,
that one I can assure you of
that.
So frustrating.
I won't share with you my
Mike Lindell numbers because those were terrible and those were,
those were embarrassing.
We don't need to know about that.
Um,
I,
you,
of course,
you've,
that's the great thing about prediction markets.
There's always another market.
There's always another thing to move on to,
always something else to do.
You,
uh,
work,
uh,
really hard,
you.
And you've done very,
very well,
uh,
in the world of golf.
Uh,
this is kind of like your,
your thing.
Like you love golf,
you've built a,
uh,
predictable terminal
that goes through and assesses each golfer's chance to do this,
go through,
look for different contracts that are available
on all the different prediction markets.
Um,
uh,
you know,
there's always a tournament,
uh,
you know,
on Thursday and going into the weekend.
What do you have coming up for this weekend?
Yeah,
and I,
I know that you follow golf
every day,
so you're very well aware that right now we're in the playoffs of golf.
Uh,
the,
the FedEx
Cup is happening,
like we're,
we're into the playoffs.
So
it's,
it's a different style of tournament this weekend.
The top 70 players are,
are now
in the running for,
for the,
the,
the final championship,
but every tournament has its own champion.
So we're going into the FedEx Cup,
uh,
Saint Jude championship this weekend.
And it's gonna be a great field,
but there's 70 people supposed to make it.
Daniel Berger,
uh,
he,
he didn't cut the mustard.
He's,
uh,
he's out with an injury,
uh,
this weekend.
So we got 69 players.
What's typically a field of,
of,
say,
150 is now,
you know,
just 69 players.
So,
the,
the odds are completely different.
And
one of the things that I'm always looking at is,
uh,
hole in one,
some of the,
some of the more special.
You know,
features on Calhi,
you can do,
uh,
different,
um,
you know,
side,
uh,
positions,
and a hole in one is always interesting to me because it's a math issue.
Um,
there's a certain amount of players,
a certain amount of par threes,
and if the conditions are right,
the
Courses,
you know,
a,
a fairly easy course for these players.
Your
chances of a,
a,
a hole in one go way up.
Well,
this weekend,
you only have a field of 69
players,
and I think there's around 1100 opportunities for
a hole in one.
Well,
the,
the math,
the odds on a hole in one are like 1 in 3000.
So,
uh,
you know,
I'm going no on a hole in one this weekend because of that.
I,
I just,
I don't feel like
there will be a hole in one.
That is around on Calhi,
that's around 58 cents right now in the no position.
And then to have two
hole in ones would be even more
of an anomaly,
and that's at 90 cents.
Now the liquidity may be,
you know,
an issue right now,
but as you get into the weekend,
just keep an eye on that.
These guys are good.
They could hit a hole in one,
but the,
but the thing that I'm looking at is,
it's just a,
it's a small field.
The likelihood of that happening is not gonna be there.
And then,
you know,
you have the best players in the world that are competing this weekend.
And so,
you're gonna have Scotty there,
Rory,
all the best,
and you wanna make sure that you're not just,
you know,
throwing dollars at your favorite player
at the wrong price,
cause Scotty right now is the favorite.
But I would actually
make a case to take a no position on Scotty right now,
and,
um,
and that's crazy,
he's the #1 player in the world,
but
you've got such a strong field with no cut,
essentially at the end of the tournament,
the top 50 advance,
so you're really looking at 4 days of play,
and it's,
it's anybody's
tournament this weekend.
That's,
that's interesting,
a couple of things on that.
Um,
one,
the hole in one number is interesting,
and I know you said there's not tons of liquidity there yet,
but
Like I feel like I've seen those numbers for full tournaments,
right?
Like where you have a full field,
um,
and the fact that they're around that level
is interesting and maybe,
maybe shows some value there.
That,
you know,
as you point out,
like,
golfers are incredibly good at hitting it very close to the hole.
The hole in one aspect of it,
at some level is kind of just luck,
you know,
you're hitting it in that general area and it goes in.
That happens with lesser golfers as well,
you know,
from time to time.
So,
Uh,
that's an interesting one,
and,
and I know you've done well.
I've actually done well on those hole in one markets as well.
Like if there's something interesting and fun about it.
Uh,
again,
you know,
at least for me,
this is not my expertise.
I don't know golf at all as you make fun of me.
Um,
but it is,
uh,
it's a,
it's just fun to kind of sprinkle a little bit around on,
on,
on some of these,
uh,
positions.
And you said no on Scheff what is Scheffler trading at?
Uh,
he's around 12 to 15 cents right now,
um,
and so he's,
I'm,
I'm looking at the markets right now,
he's
Uh,
right now,
oh,
he's at 16 cents right now.
So he's,
he's actually even gone up since I saw him earlier.
Uh,
McIlroy is at 55 cents.
Uh,
but I like Xander.
I mean,
if you're gonna take a flyer on somebody,
Xander Schofly is at
around $4.6.
Um,
that's not bad for who he is,
but then
you're gonna see a lot of movement over the weekend.
I like to look at some of the people that have a chance to move up the leaderboard.
And then you can sell the position as they as they go up,
because like Justin Rose
won the tournament last year and he's at 1%.
So like he's,
he's definitely the kind of player that could
go up into the top 10
I quickly ladder out of that,
uh,
at some point.
Right,
uh,
Jordan Spieth is an interesting one.
I mean,
he's a name that everyone knows.
Uh,
he cannot close lately,
he's just not.
He's gotta make the,
the,
I think he's gotta make the top 23 players this week.
I can't remember what it was.
He has to,
he has to be
very,
very good this weekend just to advance to the next weekend.
And,
um,
I just,
I don't know.
I,
I don't,
if he,
if he moves up the leaderboard,
he's doing OK.
I would actually take a no position against him.
I just don't think he'll end up winning,
and
I'm not so sure,
but he'll end up even advancing till next weekend.
No offense,
Jordan,
but we love you here in,
in Texas.
Uh,
I,
I will say,
uh,
you know,
I don't know that much about golf,
but I do know
if I went no on Scotty Scheffler,
I would spend my weekend in agony,
uh,
just in total fear
that I would lose that one.
So I don't know if I could go with you on that,
uh,
but,
uh,
interesting,
uh,
picks,
and,
and like they're just,
it's fun to watch.
There's,
you know,
the golf stuff is,
is,
is an interesting way to play the prediction markets.
I mean,
you,
you point out Justin Rose at 1%.
You know that we've done a lot of that in elections where you kind of take someone low,
hope they get hot early,
hope the vote comes out early for them,
they move up to 2345,
and you can easily get out of that position,
and who knows,
maybe they hold on,
uh,
and then you kind of have a free roll
at a potential big win.
Uh,
so that is the,
you say you're like,
I'm,
I'm like there's a tournament this weekend.
Yeah,
it's the big,
it's the FedEx Cup.
It's the biggest,
uh,
you know,
the biggest end of the season situation.
Uh,
that's going on.
Well,
and just so you know,
the,
the end of the season is like they go from Memphis to Saint Louis to Atlanta.
So it's like sweltering heat,
you know,
these guys are gonna be hot,
and it's gonna be a,
it's gonna be fun to watch them,
and they're,
they're,
they're the best in the world,
but,
uh,
it is for golfers,
it's kind of like moving into a fun season of just seeing these guys,
uh,
compete for the trophy.
Can,
can you put these,
uh,
picks up at the chat at predictable.
Show.com for people to check out.
Yeah,
I was gonna say,
I'll put the,
uh,
this weekend I'll
starting tomorrow,
I'll put some of the thoughts that I have for like top 20 plays,
um,
some guys that I'm looking at,
and,
uh,
if anybody has any questions in the chat,
if you like golf,
uh,
feel free to,
uh,
ping me in the chat on predictableShow.com.
Uh,
and,
uh,
before you go,
uh,
the,
the premium tier,
uh,
we,
we had a great chat last night.
Uh,
you joined us,
Dan Andros joined us.
We did,
I think,
44 hours.
I mean,
hopefully,
that's,
uh,
enough value,
uh,
for your subscription.
I think it is.
Uh,
we,
we talked to,
uh,
we had people in the chat last night
saying they pay for their entire year's subscription,
uh,
with just that one night of trading.
Um,
we got a lot of stuff coming up,
uh,
on this.
I,
we've already rolled out Stu's picks.
What is it,
2/200 picks.
Uh,
that I've made personally and are in my portfolio that you get to see.
Can you give us an idea of a couple of other
things that are on the site if people want to,
uh,
check it out?
Yeah,
we've got
more features rolling out,
but right now you have a lot to take advantage of.
One of the things we like to talk about is the community,
so like last night,
it was fun just seeing everyone in the chat talking,
interacting.
We're starting to learn names.
Uh,
it is a tight knit group of folks that just love
talking to Stu,
but like,
love talking about prediction markets.
We're,
we're learning together as well on some of the stuff.
Uh,
the prediction market world is kind of.
You know,
one of those things where,
as you saw last night in the,
in the Hong race,
it's just,
there's a lot of rodeoing going on.
So it's fun to kind of
talk about that stuff as it's happening.
That's what's happening in the community,
uh,
but we're building that for the midterms,
so
we've got a lot of things that we're trying to build so that you guys have
access to the latest and greatest data,
um,
but,
but even beyond that,
you know,
the,
the predictable
world is,
is built for prediction markets,
so.
Going into the presidential 2028 year,
we wanna make sure that we're,
we're,
we're seizing every opportunity
to understand and know what's gonna happen in those markets,
but there's,
you know,
culture markets,
there's obviously sports,
there's financial markets that
we can kind of talk about,
uh,
throughout the,
the time to build,
to really build your knowledge,
but also build your.
Profitability,
even though we're not financial advisors,
we do not say that we are investment advisors.
We are playing in the space too and
we're just sharing what we're learning through that.
So you get insider
access into the,
the predictable community with,
with us,
they're live
and then Sue's picks we're updating every week and we will give those
to you.
But then,
you know,
we wanna hear from our premium subscribers along the
way because we're building this out for them.
Some of the features will be custom for the,
the needs out there
and,
uh,
it's been a lot of fun so far.
So we,
we are definitely very hands-on.
Uh,
you'll get to,
uh,
interact with,
with everyone in the,
in the principal chat.
I think right,
even right now as we're going live,
there's people talking,
uh,
in the chat,
which is a lot of fun to see.
So,
it's a,
it's a fun community.
It's,
it's prediction markets.
If you're,
if you're liking the opportunity to just to learn,
uh,
it's not overwhelming.
It can be a first,
but we're trying to make it as easy as possible for people to get into it.
And uh to be able to sign up and uh
and have fun.
All right,
well,
yeah,
join us at predictableshw.com.
Lots of great benefits.
I think you'll like it.
Can we bring up Brent,
uh,
full screen here for one more second,
uh,
just out of a level of concern.
Uh,
is it possible the Grim Reaper is over your left shoulder?
I hope not.
It does not.
Let me,
let me slow turn to make sure.
No,
uh,
that's actually a statue.
I don't know,
the blur feature.
I can never tell if it's a help or not,
you know,
these,
these things with,
uh,
with Zoom,
uh,
but yes,
it looks like I'm
trying not to get murdered,
I think.
I think there's a,
uh,
yeah,
there's a movie where there's,
there's like an
afterlife,
maybe it's Ghost with Patrick Swayze,
the,
the guy's just,
you know,
kind of creeping in.
That's what I feel like.
Thank you,
Stu,
for that haunting thought in my head.
You're welcome.
I'm just telling you to protect yourself.
Uh,
Brandon Evans,
uh,
he's a predictable
media president and,
uh,
golf guru.
Uh,
Brent,
thanks so much for hanging out,
and,
uh,
we'll talk to you soon.
All right,
uh,
thanks so much for joining us today on Predictable with Stu.
We have more coming up tomorrow,
uh,
some,
uh,
is it true?
Is this,
is it confirmed?
Do we have a Pat Gray sighting on this program?
Is that true,
Adam?
It's confirmed.
Pat Gray joins us for the first time
on Predictable with Sue.
He's got some interesting insight on a couple of different markets.
We'll also talk to him,
of course,
about the election,
uh,
and all sorts of stuff.
I wanna,
I wanna know Pat's position on
will Mitch McConnell resign because he's been covering
this nonstop for something like 60 days.
And I wanna know what he thinks on that one and,
and a bunch of other stuff.
So we'll have Pat Gray on
tomorrow and so much more.
Thanks so much for joining us.
Join us at predictableShow.com and on YouTube.com/atpredictableShow.