WEBVTT

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Welcome

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to Predictable with Stu.

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A lot coming up this week.

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We've got primaries all over the place,

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Wisconsin,

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South Carolina,

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Minnesota,

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Vermont,

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Connecticut,

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some Alabama stuff too.

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Tomorrow is one of the biggest primary days of the year.

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I wanna prep you for that today.

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We'll go into some other stuff on,

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uh,

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It kind of is an interesting thing going on in the world of

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corporate earnings calls and how that factors into the prediction market escape,

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which is,

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I don't know,

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it's a fascinating thing to follow.

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Uh,

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and also I want to tell,

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tell you about my picks,

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how you can get my picks,

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uh,

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and hopefully that that will benefit you.

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Because we believe with 85 days

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until the midterm elections,

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we believe

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you should be paid

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for your pain.

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And that's what we attempt to do here at Predictable is we try

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to make an unpredictable world

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a little bit more

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predictable.

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Let's get to it.

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Last week on this very program,

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we hit a 2,000+%

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market position

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on

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Haley Stevens,

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who didn't even wind up winning.

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Because that's what we do here.

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That's what we do here,

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or at least that's what we attempt to do here.

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And we've done very successfully so far.

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We'll go through some of that here

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in a little bit.

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If you'd like to join the party,

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go to predictableshow.com.

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There,

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you can just put your email address in for free,

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get lots of this information,

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all the breakdowns of the shows,

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you get the videos,

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you get a lot of the live streams,

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you get a lot of the stuff that we're talking about,

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uh,

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a chat

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and all that stuff,

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uh,

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that I'm,

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I'm on a lot.

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I'm,

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you know,

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chatting with the audience a decent amount,

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plus there's a great community there.

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Um,

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if you are someone who trades on these markets,

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probably want to at least consider a predictableShow.com premium

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membership.

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If you do that,

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you get all of my picks.

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It's,

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uh,

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we had over 200 of them we released,

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uh,

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just this past week.

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They're available for you all the time.

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And whenever I have new stuff like on the election,

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you'll see it first

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at predictableshow.com.

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OK,

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so join us there.

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We'd appreciate it.

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Coming up tomorrow on the election.

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Landscape,

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one of the biggest days of the year when it comes to primaries.

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Connecticut,

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Minnesota,

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Vermont,

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Wisconsin,

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South Carolina,

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and we don't have it listed there,

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but also Alabama

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would fall into that category.

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They,

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because of the redistricting,

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they have,

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I think,

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4 races.

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I think the 1st,

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2nd,

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6th,

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and 7th districts

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are going to be going on and that,

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uh,

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is going to be in the middle of this as well.

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There's tons and tons of races.

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Obviously,

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we can't go through every single race.

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There's dozens of them.

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Uh,

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tomorrow.

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We will start covering that stuff more and more as we go into today

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and into tomorrow to try to get you into the minor stuff.

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But I wanna go through some of the big ones because there are some big ones,

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uh,

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tomorrow.

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Some of these nights,

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maybe the races aren't as sexy,

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maybe they're not as big of a deal,

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maybe they're a little more calm

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and cool and collected,

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uh,

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but,

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uh,

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you know,

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this one is a big one,

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frankly.

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And we're gonna start

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with Hong.

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Yes,

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Will

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Hong

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be the latest Democratic socialist to win

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a Midwest state?

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It comes from the Milwaukee,

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uh,

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Journal Sentinel.

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If you don't know who Hong is,

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it's Francesca Hong,

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and she is a candidate for the Democratic,

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uh,

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candidacy or the nomination for the gubernatorial,

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uh,

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position

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in Wisconsin.

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It has been a really

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weird

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race,

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and frankly,

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she is.

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A strange candidate.

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I,

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I gotta be honest with you.

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This is not me like I do believe that socialism is horrible for our country,

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and that's.

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That is a belief that I strongly hold.

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Uh,

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but that's kind of a sidebar for you,

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uh,

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from this particular race because

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if I think I can make money off of a socialist winning in these races,

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it's something that I'm going to do,

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uh,

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because I can't control the world.

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I can't control the outcomes for all these elections.

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I've come to terms with that.

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That's not my role in the,

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in the society.

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What I can hopefully help you do is

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pay for a nice dinner

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out with your spouse,

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uh,

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off of these elections.

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Uh,

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and if people are gonna make bad decisions,

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well,

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What am I gonna do?

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Again,

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I like to be paid for my pain.

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Here is Hong.

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This is the sort of candidate she is.

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Let me give you a quick candidate profile,

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if you will.

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Uh,

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here is her,

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uh,

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Hong talking about her unfortunate and

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devastating

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proximity.

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To whiteness.

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I wasn't always aware of of the struggles

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of other communities of color because for me,

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assimilation always kind of took over.

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And so,

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um,

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I,

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I,

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I did marry,

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uh,

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um,

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my proximity to whiteness continues,

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right?

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I,

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I,

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my

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son is biracial.

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He's he's half white and half Korean and um I think navigating,

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um,

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you know,

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what his identity is and then how people perceive him is

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is always at the back of my mind as well.

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Now,

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you don't wanna have that proximity to whiteness,

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especially when it's your own son.

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That's just a devastating thing to discover,

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that your own son is half white.

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Look,

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it's a weird world.

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I'm not gonna go too deep into this,

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but I do wanna give you a little bit more.

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Here is Hong talking to,

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uh,

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Caitlin Collins

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about her particular opinion on,

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and it's a unique one,

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on Thanksgiving.

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Was a post from you in 2021,

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um,

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where you said Americans should cancel Thanksgiving,

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should have done this in 1621.

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Uh,

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the post has been deleted.

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Republicans have been highlighting it.

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Do you still believe that,

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uh,

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Thanksgiving should be canceled?

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I'm a chef

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and one of the first meals that I made,

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uh,

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that was,

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um,

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for the community,

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uh,

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when I was 16 was a Thanksgiving meal.

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You know,

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I always think

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my hospitality background and owning a restaurant for

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78 years that bringing folks around the table,

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uh,

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to share

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conversation and build community is always a good thing.

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But Thanksgiving is also a time that's incredibly painful for me.

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Many people in our communities.

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And so

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I think there I wanted to make sure

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that people understood that there are multiple views,

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but

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some views can evolve and

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the position that I'm running for right now,

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and I think my background as a chef

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will actually help me become a better governor that's able to bring more people

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to the table.

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It's

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a

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fascinating answer.

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I love this.

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Uh,

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she says that there are multiple views on Thanksgiving.

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Uh,

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but views can evolve.

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She's not saying her views have evolved.

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At no point in that answer does she say

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that her views have evolved and she really likes Thanksgiving now.

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She just says that they can theoretically evolve.

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So that's good to know.

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I hope you,

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uh,

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are excited about that.

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I love that too.

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It's like,

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uh,

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when someone asks you a really direct question where there's an obvious answer,

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you know,

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hey,

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did you,

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uh,

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did you cheat on your,

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on your wife?

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I'm a chef.

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That has,

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that's not an answer to that.

293
00:06:44.160 --> 00:06:45.399
The answer easily is no.

294
00:06:45.470 --> 00:06:45.989
And I bring that up,

295
00:06:46.040 --> 00:06:46.679
not because I,

296
00:06:46.779 --> 00:06:46.959
you know,

297
00:06:47.079 --> 00:06:47.390
look,

298
00:06:47.609 --> 00:06:48.660
do I think she's

299
00:06:49.600 --> 00:06:50.540
a bit insane?

300
00:06:50.799 --> 00:06:51.220
Sure.

301
00:06:51.440 --> 00:06:52.920
But that's not really even why I bring this up.

302
00:06:53.000 --> 00:06:54.100
I bring this up because

303
00:06:54.480 --> 00:06:56.320
when it comes to candidate quality,

304
00:06:56.399 --> 00:06:58.390
there's a really easy answer to,

305
00:06:58.399 --> 00:07:00.920
do you think Thanksgiving is the Holocaust?

306
00:07:00.959 --> 00:07:02.200
And the answer to that is no.

307
00:07:03.470 --> 00:07:05.149
Do you think Thanksgiving should be canceled?

308
00:07:05.320 --> 00:07:05.679
The answer,

309
00:07:05.839 --> 00:07:06.679
it's a really easy,

310
00:07:06.720 --> 00:07:07.589
it's two letters,

311
00:07:07.760 --> 00:07:08.339
no.

312
00:07:09.149 --> 00:07:10.970
That's the way you answer that question,

313
00:07:11.230 --> 00:07:12.670
even if you don't believe it

314
00:07:12.790 --> 00:07:13.470
as a candidate,

315
00:07:13.549 --> 00:07:15.309
but she's trying to win a Democratic primary.

316
00:07:15.760 --> 00:07:17.950
She wants to say there's lots of different views on Thanksgiving.

317
00:07:18.230 --> 00:07:18.880
Apparently,

318
00:07:19.029 --> 00:07:19.899
this is working out very,

319
00:07:19.980 --> 00:07:20.500
very well for her.

320
00:07:20.549 --> 00:07:20.660
Now,

321
00:07:20.670 --> 00:07:22.549
I will tell you this race is really,

322
00:07:22.989 --> 00:07:23.850
really strange.

323
00:07:24.070 --> 00:07:25.739
It's been a very strange race.

324
00:07:25.989 --> 00:07:28.140
There have been people who are much more well known than,

325
00:07:28.149 --> 00:07:28.700
uh,

326
00:07:28.709 --> 00:07:29.109
Hong

327
00:07:29.309 --> 00:07:30.029
in this race,

328
00:07:30.230 --> 00:07:30.390
uh,

329
00:07:30.470 --> 00:07:31.989
who have just kind of gone to the sideline and,

330
00:07:32.070 --> 00:07:32.190
and,

331
00:07:32.299 --> 00:07:33.260
and dropped out of the race,

332
00:07:33.420 --> 00:07:34.470
including Mandela Barnes.

333
00:07:34.510 --> 00:07:36.149
I wanna show you this polling from The New York Times.

334
00:07:36.720 --> 00:07:36.839
Uh,

335
00:07:36.920 --> 00:07:37.959
if you look from the bottom of this,

336
00:07:38.160 --> 00:07:40.200
this is the farthest away or timeline wise,

337
00:07:40.260 --> 00:07:41.799
you see Hong plus 20,

338
00:07:41.920 --> 00:07:43.589
Hong plus 29,

339
00:07:43.959 --> 00:07:45.619
Hong plus 25,

340
00:07:45.880 --> 00:07:46.029
and,

341
00:07:46.079 --> 00:07:46.230
you know,

342
00:07:46.320 --> 00:07:46.670
here she is,

343
00:07:46.720 --> 00:07:48.910
she's leading the race 46 to 21.

344
00:07:49.279 --> 00:07:51.579
The person in second place is Mandela Barnes,

345
00:07:51.600 --> 00:07:52.540
who's dropped out.

346
00:07:53.529 --> 00:07:56.850
So she has what seemingly should be a really clear path,

347
00:07:56.959 --> 00:07:57.309
uh,

348
00:07:57.329 --> 00:07:57.950
tomorrow night,

349
00:07:58.410 --> 00:07:58.600
uh,

350
00:07:58.670 --> 00:08:00.640
52% to 33% over Crowley,

351
00:08:00.649 --> 00:08:01.950
who now seems to be the only,

352
00:08:02.170 --> 00:08:03.410
David Crowley is the only,

353
00:08:03.450 --> 00:08:03.839
uh,

354
00:08:03.970 --> 00:08:04.549
the only,

355
00:08:04.850 --> 00:08:05.359
uh,

356
00:08:05.690 --> 00:08:07.600
person competing with her at this point.

357
00:08:07.850 --> 00:08:09.160
You'll note that both of these polls,

358
00:08:09.170 --> 00:08:11.209
hung by 19 and Hong by 18,

359
00:08:11.290 --> 00:08:12.549
those are the best two polls

360
00:08:12.890 --> 00:08:13.250
for,

361
00:08:13.299 --> 00:08:13.790
uh,

362
00:08:13.970 --> 00:08:14.429
for

363
00:08:14.570 --> 00:08:15.730
Crowley in this race,

364
00:08:16.010 --> 00:08:16.470
both

365
00:08:16.730 --> 00:08:18.230
sponsored by Crowley.

366
00:08:19.579 --> 00:08:20.000
So,

367
00:08:20.170 --> 00:08:20.609
uh,

368
00:08:20.700 --> 00:08:23.250
this is one where it does seem like Hong should win this race,

369
00:08:23.260 --> 00:08:23.739
and you seem,

370
00:08:23.820 --> 00:08:25.179
you would think relatively easily.

371
00:08:25.220 --> 00:08:26.019
Let's look at the markets.

372
00:08:26.109 --> 00:08:26.290
Let's,

373
00:08:26.299 --> 00:08:26.489
uh,

374
00:08:26.500 --> 00:08:26.850
bring up,

375
00:08:26.859 --> 00:08:27.670
uh,

376
00:08:27.690 --> 00:08:29.079
Wisconsin Democratic governor

377
00:08:29.660 --> 00:08:30.299
nominee.

378
00:08:30.380 --> 00:08:31.440
This one is on Cal,

379
00:08:31.459 --> 00:08:31.760
uh,

380
00:08:31.769 --> 00:08:32.010
Calshi,

381
00:08:32.099 --> 00:08:32.299
I believe,

382
00:08:32.380 --> 00:08:32.799
yes.

383
00:08:33.380 --> 00:08:33.820
And

384
00:08:34.219 --> 00:08:38.030
you see now Hong at 95.8%. I will say.

385
00:08:39.318 --> 00:08:40.198
There's some value there,

386
00:08:40.239 --> 00:08:41.359
I think at 95%.

387
00:08:41.438 --> 00:08:41.558
I mean,

388
00:08:41.679 --> 00:08:43.268
there's a lot of polling here,

389
00:08:43.359 --> 00:08:44.898
there's a lot of polls at this race.

390
00:08:45.559 --> 00:08:46.109
All of his,

391
00:08:46.278 --> 00:08:48.499
her most serious competition is gone.

392
00:08:49.530 --> 00:08:51.080
And frankly,

393
00:08:51.820 --> 00:08:52.799
it's a pretty good,

394
00:08:52.900 --> 00:08:53.179
uh,

395
00:08:53.219 --> 00:08:54.690
it's even at 95%,

396
00:08:54.820 --> 00:08:57.859
I do have a position on that and will probably make it bigger.

397
00:08:57.940 --> 00:09:00.340
I don't remember what size I have at this moment.

398
00:09:00.380 --> 00:09:01.770
I think it's maybe a small position,

399
00:09:01.820 --> 00:09:03.580
but I think I might grow that at 95%.

400
00:09:03.619 --> 00:09:03.820
I'm,

401
00:09:03.900 --> 00:09:04.500
I'm willing

402
00:09:04.659 --> 00:09:06.039
to actually take a larger position

403
00:09:06.369 --> 00:09:07.179
on Francesca

404
00:09:07.380 --> 00:09:08.760
Hong in that particular

405
00:09:09.049 --> 00:09:09.940
race because,

406
00:09:10.020 --> 00:09:10.179
uh,

407
00:09:10.260 --> 00:09:10.419
you know,

408
00:09:10.520 --> 00:09:10.880
look,

409
00:09:11.299 --> 00:09:11.859
it's strange.

410
00:09:11.940 --> 00:09:12.010
I,

411
00:09:12.080 --> 00:09:12.169
I,

412
00:09:12.289 --> 00:09:12.659
uh,

413
00:09:12.700 --> 00:09:12.900
you know,

414
00:09:12.979 --> 00:09:15.289
Wisconsin is a state that's like the home of progressivism,

415
00:09:15.380 --> 00:09:17.260
the birthplace of American progressivism.

416
00:09:17.500 --> 00:09:20.140
They're very familiar and friendly to very left-wing

417
00:09:20.140 --> 00:09:21.380
candidates and can do that in the,

418
00:09:21.419 --> 00:09:22.729
in the left side of that state,

419
00:09:22.900 --> 00:09:24.520
even though it's a purplish state overall.

420
00:09:24.700 --> 00:09:26.179
It makes them very,

421
00:09:26.280 --> 00:09:27.719
very vulnerable in that race.

422
00:09:28.260 --> 00:09:28.500
I mean,

423
00:09:28.900 --> 00:09:32.260
Francesca Hong could lose in Wisconsin even in a,

424
00:09:32.359 --> 00:09:34.099
in a Democratic leaning year,

425
00:09:34.500 --> 00:09:35.929
but it does seem like the,

426
00:09:35.979 --> 00:09:36.289
the,

427
00:09:36.340 --> 00:09:36.979
the,

428
00:09:37.190 --> 00:09:37.390
the,

429
00:09:37.619 --> 00:09:38.599
they're gonna live and die

430
00:09:39.299 --> 00:09:40.369
with her at this point,

431
00:09:40.580 --> 00:09:42.159
and that seems like where we are

432
00:09:42.340 --> 00:09:43.340
in that particular race,

433
00:09:43.400 --> 00:09:43.530
uh,

434
00:09:43.650 --> 00:09:44.539
Darlene Graham.

435
00:09:45.140 --> 00:09:49.169
Is the other big story and maybe the other second biggest one in South Carolina.

436
00:09:49.669 --> 00:09:51.940
Obviously we had the death of Lindsey Graham,

437
00:09:51.950 --> 00:09:53.530
who passed away a few weeks ago.

438
00:09:53.869 --> 00:09:54.890
They could,

439
00:09:55.000 --> 00:09:58.140
could have chosen anyone in the world or anyone in the state at least to,

440
00:09:58.190 --> 00:09:58.580
uh,

441
00:09:58.679 --> 00:09:59.500
to step in.

442
00:09:59.710 --> 00:10:01.770
They decided to choose his sister,

443
00:10:01.909 --> 00:10:02.190
uh,

444
00:10:02.200 --> 00:10:02.890
Darlene.

445
00:10:03.190 --> 00:10:03.309
Uh,

446
00:10:03.390 --> 00:10:06.109
Darlene is now the senator from the state.

447
00:10:06.150 --> 00:10:06.979
That's already happened.

448
00:10:07.200 --> 00:10:08.929
The question is now who wins,

449
00:10:08.950 --> 00:10:09.219
uh,

450
00:10:09.309 --> 00:10:11.010
the opportunity to run

451
00:10:11.390 --> 00:10:14.650
for this seat in November to hold a six-year term.

452
00:10:15.690 --> 00:10:19.549
The reporting behind the scenes here is that uh they

453
00:10:19.739 --> 00:10:20.530
initially,

454
00:10:20.539 --> 00:10:22.299
Trump wanted to go with Fry,

455
00:10:22.390 --> 00:10:23.450
who's a congressman

456
00:10:23.659 --> 00:10:24.820
who was running in this race,

457
00:10:25.059 --> 00:10:25.280
uh,

458
00:10:25.299 --> 00:10:25.659
and then,

459
00:10:25.739 --> 00:10:27.179
and was eventually talked out of it,

460
00:10:27.340 --> 00:10:28.299
met with Darlene Graham,

461
00:10:28.340 --> 00:10:29.090
really liked her,

462
00:10:29.260 --> 00:10:30.539
and decided to endorse Darlene.

463
00:10:30.799 --> 00:10:31.010
Graham.

464
00:10:31.049 --> 00:10:33.049
So she is the Trump endorsed nominee in this race.

465
00:10:33.330 --> 00:10:37.000
Will Darlene Graham face the same fate as Pamela Yvette did in South Carolina?

466
00:10:37.049 --> 00:10:38.309
We bring this one up because

467
00:10:38.690 --> 00:10:40.369
we talked about this race at the time.

468
00:10:40.520 --> 00:10:43.890
Yvette was the one that we kind of ended our thesis statement.

469
00:10:43.969 --> 00:10:45.969
It was an active thesis to a retired thesis.

470
00:10:46.309 --> 00:10:48.830
That basically Trump can get whoever he wants in in these primaries.

471
00:10:49.030 --> 00:10:49.739
That served us very,

472
00:10:49.789 --> 00:10:51.369
very well early in the primary season,

473
00:10:51.669 --> 00:10:52.789
seemed to fade a little bit.

474
00:10:52.989 --> 00:10:53.549
It was on the,

475
00:10:53.630 --> 00:10:54.890
on the rocks there,

476
00:10:54.950 --> 00:10:55.530
and then,

477
00:10:55.549 --> 00:10:55.780
uh,

478
00:10:55.789 --> 00:10:56.580
it faded when,

479
00:10:56.590 --> 00:10:56.789
when,

480
00:10:56.880 --> 00:10:57.340
when,

481
00:10:57.440 --> 00:10:59.179
when Yvette was not able to hold that,

482
00:10:59.390 --> 00:11:00.320
she made it into the,

483
00:11:00.349 --> 00:11:00.679
uh,

484
00:11:00.690 --> 00:11:02.369
runoff but was not able to hold

485
00:11:02.510 --> 00:11:03.010
the seat,

486
00:11:03.270 --> 00:11:03.650
um,

487
00:11:03.700 --> 00:11:04.320
and win.

488
00:11:05.119 --> 00:11:05.580
And,

489
00:11:05.669 --> 00:11:05.830
you know,

490
00:11:05.869 --> 00:11:07.710
it's an interesting race because.

491
00:11:09.520 --> 00:11:10.340
Anecdotally,

492
00:11:10.479 --> 00:11:11.200
I will tell you this,

493
00:11:11.390 --> 00:11:14.369
talking to a lot of people who are in South Carolina who observed this,

494
00:11:14.400 --> 00:11:14.820
uh,

495
00:11:14.960 --> 00:11:15.739
uh,

496
00:11:15.760 --> 00:11:17.219
South Carolina situation.

497
00:11:18.289 --> 00:11:19.400
Lindsey Graham was

498
00:11:20.250 --> 00:11:21.909
A very well-known figure

499
00:11:22.369 --> 00:11:23.729
in South Carolina.

500
00:11:23.929 --> 00:11:26.690
He was a guy that we made a decent amount of

501
00:11:26.690 --> 00:11:29.010
money on when he actually ran in the primary this year.

502
00:11:29.130 --> 00:11:29.369
Had a,

503
00:11:29.460 --> 00:11:31.630
had an all-in position on his race.

504
00:11:31.969 --> 00:11:34.090
It was a little closer than I realized and,

505
00:11:34.140 --> 00:11:34.359
uh,

506
00:11:34.450 --> 00:11:35.590
than I thought it was going to be,

507
00:11:35.770 --> 00:11:35.880
uh,

508
00:11:35.890 --> 00:11:39.010
but we still won easily because we like to leave a lot of clearance,

509
00:11:39.090 --> 00:11:39.229
right?

510
00:11:39.250 --> 00:11:39.869
I don't like,

511
00:11:40.049 --> 00:11:43.369
I don't like going in on a strong position like that when there's a 1 or 2-point lead.

512
00:11:43.570 --> 00:11:45.929
I want a 10-point lead that if it goes the wrong way,

513
00:11:45.960 --> 00:11:46.929
is only a 2-point lead,

514
00:11:46.960 --> 00:11:47.520
but we still win.

515
00:11:47.599 --> 00:11:48.969
That's the way I look at a lot of these things.

516
00:11:49.450 --> 00:11:50.419
And Lindsey Graham,

517
00:11:50.549 --> 00:11:50.690
uh,

518
00:11:50.739 --> 00:11:50.979
did,

519
00:11:51.099 --> 00:11:51.840
he was never,

520
00:11:52.380 --> 00:11:52.460
you know,

521
00:11:52.619 --> 00:11:55.900
I guess there's a little bit of like retroactive because he

522
00:11:55.900 --> 00:11:59.140
passed away at 71 years old and in an unexpected fashion.

523
00:11:59.210 --> 00:12:00.500
There's a little bit of this retroactive,

524
00:12:00.580 --> 00:12:01.320
he was this

525
00:12:02.140 --> 00:12:03.919
beloved figure in the state.

526
00:12:04.299 --> 00:12:04.700
Um,

527
00:12:04.859 --> 00:12:05.020
you know,

528
00:12:05.130 --> 00:12:05.940
he was respected.

529
00:12:06.090 --> 00:12:06.820
He brought a lot of,

530
00:12:06.859 --> 00:12:07.369
uh,

531
00:12:07.380 --> 00:12:07.909
stuff home,

532
00:12:08.020 --> 00:12:08.169
uh,

533
00:12:08.219 --> 00:12:08.890
to the region.

534
00:12:09.059 --> 00:12:09.299
Uh,

535
00:12:09.419 --> 00:12:11.859
he did some things well for the state.

536
00:12:12.130 --> 00:12:14.500
If you happen to be very hawkish in your foreign policy,

537
00:12:14.580 --> 00:12:15.900
you probably had a high opinion of him.

538
00:12:16.710 --> 00:12:20.250
But he was never super beloved by the Republican Party.

539
00:12:20.330 --> 00:12:22.070
He never got a big challenger,

540
00:12:22.250 --> 00:12:24.510
largely because he was a very powerful

541
00:12:25.130 --> 00:12:25.969
senator,

542
00:12:26.250 --> 00:12:26.530
um,

543
00:12:26.570 --> 00:12:29.169
and had a high status in the government,

544
00:12:29.770 --> 00:12:30.929
but he always was able to,

545
00:12:31.010 --> 00:12:33.190
he would always have these guys that were kinda like,

546
00:12:33.289 --> 00:12:33.989
maybe interesting,

547
00:12:34.250 --> 00:12:34.750
maybe,

548
00:12:34.809 --> 00:12:35.369
uh,

549
00:12:35.489 --> 00:12:35.849
you know,

550
00:12:36.450 --> 00:12:37.349
state senators.

551
00:12:37.409 --> 00:12:38.559
It was that type of challenger.

552
00:12:38.599 --> 00:12:40.590
He never really got those big name challengers.

553
00:12:40.940 --> 00:12:41.609
And for that reason,

554
00:12:41.659 --> 00:12:42.340
he was able to win,

555
00:12:42.409 --> 00:12:43.530
but he never was,

556
00:12:43.820 --> 00:12:43.940
you know,

557
00:12:44.010 --> 00:12:46.119
80 and 90% of the vote in these primaries.

558
00:12:46.460 --> 00:12:46.539
Uh,

559
00:12:46.580 --> 00:12:49.559
I think he won 57% in this particular primary this year,

560
00:12:50.030 --> 00:12:50.130
uh,

561
00:12:50.169 --> 00:12:51.599
which was a disappointing number.

562
00:12:52.340 --> 00:12:52.750
Um,

563
00:12:52.940 --> 00:12:53.280
he,

564
00:12:53.590 --> 00:12:53.900
uh,

565
00:12:54.020 --> 00:12:54.460
and it was,

566
00:12:54.580 --> 00:12:54.739
you know,

567
00:12:54.820 --> 00:12:56.020
running against no,

568
00:12:56.140 --> 00:12:56.299
you know,

569
00:12:56.419 --> 00:12:56.739
not,

570
00:12:56.859 --> 00:12:57.669
no big challenger,

571
00:12:57.700 --> 00:12:57.820
though,

572
00:12:57.940 --> 00:12:58.219
is it,

573
00:12:58.299 --> 00:12:58.380
uh,

574
00:12:58.460 --> 00:12:59.539
can we get this market real quick?

575
00:12:59.619 --> 00:13:01.159
This is a poly market for,

576
00:13:01.260 --> 00:13:01.489
uh,

577
00:13:01.500 --> 00:13:02.320
South Carolina Republican Senate,

578
00:13:03.619 --> 00:13:03.780
uh,

579
00:13:03.940 --> 00:13:05.179
special primary winner.

580
00:13:05.500 --> 00:13:06.280
And you see,

581
00:13:06.619 --> 00:13:07.000
uh,

582
00:13:07.010 --> 00:13:09.700
Darlene Graham Nordone at 39.7%,

583
00:13:09.820 --> 00:13:10.500
Russell Frye,

584
00:13:10.580 --> 00:13:14.159
which again was the kind of a MAGA type uh congressman.

585
00:13:14.539 --> 00:13:16.020
Trump's kind of initial pick

586
00:13:16.140 --> 00:13:17.140
is at 27.2%,

587
00:13:17.219 --> 00:13:19.479
Ralph Norman at 25%.

588
00:13:19.690 --> 00:13:22.000
And Mark Sanford at 2.9%. And then there's also,

589
00:13:22.049 --> 00:13:23.789
I think Mark Lynch is in the race as well.

590
00:13:24.080 --> 00:13:24.440
Uh,

591
00:13:24.570 --> 00:13:25.010
he is,

592
00:13:25.130 --> 00:13:26.239
he was the initial challenger.

593
00:13:26.280 --> 00:13:26.960
He's still in the race,

594
00:13:27.030 --> 00:13:29.049
but it's not thought to be a serious challenger here.

595
00:13:29.369 --> 00:13:29.530
Uh,

596
00:13:29.690 --> 00:13:30.530
what you're gonna get here,

597
00:13:30.609 --> 00:13:31.109
and this,

598
00:13:31.169 --> 00:13:32.109
remember the rules

599
00:13:32.330 --> 00:13:34.570
are always always important to know our Second Amendment,

600
00:13:34.590 --> 00:13:34.599
uh,

601
00:13:34.609 --> 00:13:36.969
to our predictable constitution is you gotta read the rules.

602
00:13:37.169 --> 00:13:40.530
You also need to know the rules of the particular election in South Carolina.

603
00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:41.590
We have a,

604
00:13:41.599 --> 00:13:42.190
uh,

605
00:13:42.200 --> 00:13:43.460
top two unless someone gets over

606
00:13:43.840 --> 00:13:44.820
the 50th

607
00:13:45.679 --> 00:13:46.179
percentile.

608
00:13:46.280 --> 00:13:46.590
So,

609
00:13:46.599 --> 00:13:48.400
you have to get 50% or they will do a runoff.

610
00:13:48.520 --> 00:13:49.000
Most likely,

611
00:13:49.039 --> 00:13:50.059
that's what we're looking at here.

612
00:13:50.320 --> 00:13:51.429
It's going to be a runoff.

613
00:13:51.469 --> 00:13:51.859
It would be

614
00:13:52.000 --> 00:13:54.080
pretty shocking if someone got over 50%.

615
00:13:54.159 --> 00:13:55.099
I don't expect that.

616
00:13:55.200 --> 00:13:55.359
I mean,

617
00:13:55.440 --> 00:13:57.719
the only one who probably has a chance is Darlene Graham,

618
00:13:58.010 --> 00:13:59.219
but I would not expect,

619
00:13:59.609 --> 00:13:59.950
uh,

620
00:13:59.960 --> 00:14:01.479
that particular outcome.

621
00:14:02.369 --> 00:14:02.729
Uh,

622
00:14:02.890 --> 00:14:03.250
the other one,

623
00:14:03.289 --> 00:14:05.640
I do have a no position on Ralph Norman,

624
00:14:05.890 --> 00:14:07.679
and I'm not sure that he's not gonna make this runoff.

625
00:14:07.729 --> 00:14:08.090
I think there's,

626
00:14:08.210 --> 00:14:10.510
it's fifty-fifty whether he makes the runoff or not.

627
00:14:10.849 --> 00:14:12.559
I do think that in this situation,

628
00:14:12.570 --> 00:14:15.359
it would be tough for him to win in South Carolina.

629
00:14:15.609 --> 00:14:16.630
Though as we've seen,

630
00:14:16.969 --> 00:14:18.710
Trump's endorsements only go so far,

631
00:14:19.049 --> 00:14:19.989
and a lot of times,

632
00:14:20.330 --> 00:14:21.409
it's not just an endorsement,

633
00:14:21.520 --> 00:14:22.919
it's a passion for that endorsement.

634
00:14:23.130 --> 00:14:25.090
He had real passion against Thomas Massey.

635
00:14:25.159 --> 00:14:26.400
It was one of the reasons why we did very,

636
00:14:26.479 --> 00:14:28.570
very well in that going with Ed Galloway,

637
00:14:28.729 --> 00:14:29.250
his opponent.

638
00:14:29.580 --> 00:14:29.590
Because

639
00:14:30.289 --> 00:14:33.520
of the passion and interest that Donald Trump had in that race.

640
00:14:33.739 --> 00:14:35.049
I don't know that he has that interest,

641
00:14:35.419 --> 00:14:36.500
interest against Darlene Graham,

642
00:14:36.700 --> 00:14:37.309
particularly

643
00:14:37.460 --> 00:14:38.700
if it goes against Russell Frye.

644
00:14:38.739 --> 00:14:38.940
I,

645
00:14:39.020 --> 00:14:42.130
it could be a situation like he did to Pamela Yvett where he was like,

646
00:14:42.179 --> 00:14:42.500
oh well,

647
00:14:42.570 --> 00:14:43.640
actually both of them were great,

648
00:14:43.659 --> 00:14:45.270
and that ruined everything for Yvette,

649
00:14:45.539 --> 00:14:45.700
uh,

650
00:14:45.780 --> 00:14:47.320
as far as the Trump endorsement goes.

651
00:14:47.739 --> 00:14:49.119
What we could see here

652
00:14:49.299 --> 00:14:51.039
is a situation where it is

653
00:14:51.330 --> 00:14:52.700
Darlene Graham versus Russell Frye.

654
00:14:52.809 --> 00:14:53.179
If that,

655
00:14:53.260 --> 00:14:54.599
I think Frye could actually win.

656
00:14:54.950 --> 00:14:55.109
Uh,

657
00:14:55.190 --> 00:14:56.729
in that particular back and forth.

658
00:14:57.229 --> 00:14:58.830
Ralph Norman's sort of another story.

659
00:14:58.950 --> 00:14:59.869
Norman is,

660
00:14:59.950 --> 00:15:00.109
uh,

661
00:15:00.190 --> 00:15:00.309
you know,

662
00:15:00.669 --> 00:15:00.679
he,

663
00:15:00.840 --> 00:15:01.750
he does some things well,

664
00:15:01.869 --> 00:15:02.619
people like him.

665
00:15:02.669 --> 00:15:02.940
He was,

666
00:15:03.010 --> 00:15:03.020
uh,

667
00:15:03.150 --> 00:15:04.450
but he was like a Nikki Haley.

668
00:15:04.950 --> 00:15:05.270
Pick

669
00:15:05.429 --> 00:15:07.909
and that is something that Donald Trump does not like very much.

670
00:15:08.070 --> 00:15:08.409
Uh,

671
00:15:08.549 --> 00:15:11.210
someone who kind of got went against his pick

672
00:15:11.429 --> 00:15:12.010
and also,

673
00:15:12.150 --> 00:15:12.469
uh,

674
00:15:12.590 --> 00:15:12.940
is,

675
00:15:13.030 --> 00:15:13.469
you know,

676
00:15:13.669 --> 00:15:13.940
uh,

677
00:15:13.950 --> 00:15:14.789
close with Haley,

678
00:15:14.840 --> 00:15:16.270
that's just not the Trump formula.

679
00:15:16.530 --> 00:15:18.700
So I would expect if Norman gets into that race,

680
00:15:18.750 --> 00:15:19.650
there'd be more passion

681
00:15:19.950 --> 00:15:20.250
for,

682
00:15:20.349 --> 00:15:21.590
for Darlene Graham or Russell Frye,

683
00:15:21.659 --> 00:15:22.710
whoever it happens to be to get in there.

684
00:15:22.789 --> 00:15:23.789
So I do have a no there.

685
00:15:23.869 --> 00:15:25.150
I have a no on Mark Sanford as well.

686
00:15:25.229 --> 00:15:26.500
I don't think that's going to happen.

687
00:15:26.830 --> 00:15:26.989
Uh,

688
00:15:27.109 --> 00:15:27.690
so that is,

689
00:15:27.700 --> 00:15:27.820
uh,

690
00:15:27.830 --> 00:15:29.190
the case there in that race.

691
00:15:29.229 --> 00:15:31.330
And then we have a few races in Minnesota I wanna go through

692
00:15:31.630 --> 00:15:32.169
quickly,

693
00:15:32.429 --> 00:15:32.590
uh,

694
00:15:32.789 --> 00:15:33.650
before we move on.

695
00:15:34.500 --> 00:15:36.940
With a lot more at predictableShow.com on these races.

696
00:15:37.260 --> 00:15:37.460
Uh,

697
00:15:37.820 --> 00:15:41.099
political analysts give last-minute money take on Minnesota primaries.

698
00:15:41.260 --> 00:15:42.960
Money Matters is the headline

699
00:15:43.340 --> 00:15:44.799
from CBS News.

700
00:15:45.219 --> 00:15:45.510
So,

701
00:15:45.539 --> 00:15:47.700
three interesting races I'm gonna highlight here.

702
00:15:47.780 --> 00:15:49.559
I'm not gonna get too deep into

703
00:15:50.099 --> 00:15:51.320
the congressional stuff,

704
00:15:51.340 --> 00:15:51.900
uh,

705
00:15:51.909 --> 00:15:52.059
for,

706
00:15:52.169 --> 00:15:53.400
for this particular segment

707
00:15:53.659 --> 00:15:55.400
just because there's so much to go through.

708
00:15:55.700 --> 00:15:56.080
Um,

709
00:15:56.219 --> 00:15:56.299
uh,

710
00:15:56.380 --> 00:15:58.179
but there are some good opportunities there that we

711
00:15:58.179 --> 00:16:01.000
will go to a little bit more unpredictableshow.com.

712
00:16:01.429 --> 00:16:03.789
Let's start with the Minnesota Republican governor nominee.

713
00:16:03.840 --> 00:16:04.710
Is that the first one we have here?

714
00:16:04.760 --> 00:16:04.869
Yeah,

715
00:16:04.979 --> 00:16:05.530
here we go.

716
00:16:05.750 --> 00:16:06.190
Um,

717
00:16:06.460 --> 00:16:06.979
and the,

718
00:16:07.109 --> 00:16:08.869
this has been a fascinating market actually.

719
00:16:09.190 --> 00:16:10.270
If you're listening on podcast,

720
00:16:10.349 --> 00:16:11.789
I'll try to describe the dynamics here.

721
00:16:11.859 --> 00:16:15.429
You have a big lead by Lisa Demuth for until about May

722
00:16:15.669 --> 00:16:16.890
when she dropped off,

723
00:16:16.950 --> 00:16:17.030
uh,

724
00:16:17.109 --> 00:16:20.469
and a big pickup by Kendall Quals who went into the lead.

725
00:16:20.880 --> 00:16:21.000
Uh,

726
00:16:21.130 --> 00:16:22.650
then Lisa Demuth,

727
00:16:22.890 --> 00:16:26.150
Demuth took that lead again and held it all the way until,

728
00:16:26.299 --> 00:16:26.599
I don't know,

729
00:16:26.609 --> 00:16:27.169
late July,

730
00:16:27.250 --> 00:16:27.840
early August.

731
00:16:27.890 --> 00:16:29.000
And then out of nowhere,

732
00:16:29.380 --> 00:16:30.049
Mike Lindell,

733
00:16:30.210 --> 00:16:31.190
remember the MyPillow guy,

734
00:16:31.250 --> 00:16:32.989
he is running in this race,

735
00:16:33.330 --> 00:16:34.840
and he skyrocketed to about

736
00:16:34.960 --> 00:16:36.090
80%.

737
00:16:37.049 --> 00:16:38.609
I had a no position on him.

738
00:16:38.669 --> 00:16:38.969
It's a,

739
00:16:39.049 --> 00:16:39.969
it might be a marker position,

740
00:16:40.080 --> 00:16:41.469
pretty small position for sure,

741
00:16:41.900 --> 00:16:42.169
uh,

742
00:16:42.409 --> 00:16:42.570
because,

743
00:16:42.609 --> 00:16:42.770
you know,

744
00:16:43.210 --> 00:16:43.770
Lindell is,

745
00:16:43.890 --> 00:16:44.450
he's a character,

746
00:16:44.650 --> 00:16:44.869
we've,

747
00:16:45.090 --> 00:16:45.690
we had him on the,

748
00:16:45.789 --> 00:16:47.080
the old show back in the day.

749
00:16:47.369 --> 00:16:50.679
It just doesn't seem like he's necessarily going to be a uniting figure among the,

750
00:16:50.890 --> 00:16:51.929
really even the Republican Party,

751
00:16:52.010 --> 00:16:52.929
let alone the state.

752
00:16:53.250 --> 00:16:53.369
Uh,

753
00:16:53.440 --> 00:16:54.070
but he has,

754
00:16:54.450 --> 00:16:54.650
you know,

755
00:16:54.770 --> 00:16:55.849
done pretty well in the,

756
00:16:55.919 --> 00:16:56.049
in,

757
00:16:56.150 --> 00:16:57.239
in some of the polling here.

758
00:16:57.489 --> 00:17:00.750
He's got some money of his own that he's spending apparently on this race,

759
00:17:01.049 --> 00:17:01.359
and,

760
00:17:01.409 --> 00:17:01.599
uh,

761
00:17:01.690 --> 00:17:02.320
he is,

762
00:17:02.369 --> 00:17:02.880
uh,

763
00:17:03.010 --> 00:17:04.069
he's in the running here.

764
00:17:04.448 --> 00:17:05.648
Which is kind of interesting.

765
00:17:05.718 --> 00:17:08.739
We've seen a surge by Demuth in the prediction markets

766
00:17:08.928 --> 00:17:10.409
over the past couple of weeks though.

767
00:17:10.489 --> 00:17:11.108
And now

768
00:17:11.409 --> 00:17:14.328
what we have here is 62% for Demuth.

769
00:17:14.529 --> 00:17:14.917
Lindell,

770
00:17:14.968 --> 00:17:16.348
about 38% chance

771
00:17:16.648 --> 00:17:17.428
to win

772
00:17:17.808 --> 00:17:18.708
in that race.

773
00:17:18.838 --> 00:17:19.009
Uh,

774
00:17:19.128 --> 00:17:21.148
Qus seems to have fallen off

775
00:17:21.368 --> 00:17:22.489
in a significant fashion.

776
00:17:22.568 --> 00:17:23.529
Do we have some polls on this?

777
00:17:23.628 --> 00:17:26.048
Last poll I saw here was Lindell still leading

778
00:17:26.308 --> 00:17:28.838
34 to 28 over Demuth.

779
00:17:29.078 --> 00:17:30.869
Quals at 17%.

780
00:17:31.208 --> 00:17:31.609
Um,

781
00:17:31.729 --> 00:17:31.848
you know,

782
00:17:31.928 --> 00:17:34.109
Lindell has led most of the polling here.

783
00:17:34.489 --> 00:17:34.979
So

784
00:17:35.819 --> 00:17:36.280
The question is,

785
00:17:36.310 --> 00:17:37.709
can name ID get you over the,

786
00:17:37.750 --> 00:17:38.770
over the top here?

787
00:17:39.310 --> 00:17:39.819
Michael Lindell,

788
00:17:39.910 --> 00:17:42.170
I don't think is the type of candidate that can get you

789
00:17:42.310 --> 00:17:44.849
50 or 60% even in the Republican primary.

790
00:17:45.430 --> 00:17:48.689
The fact is he might win this race with 35 or 40%,

791
00:17:48.989 --> 00:17:50.560
and that is going to put

792
00:17:50.670 --> 00:17:51.589
the Minnesota race,

793
00:17:51.670 --> 00:17:55.729
which I have a strong position on the Minnesota Democrat to win in this race,

794
00:17:56.040 --> 00:17:56.459
um,

795
00:17:56.689 --> 00:17:56.910
uh,

796
00:17:57.030 --> 00:17:58.310
that would be Amy Klobuchar.

797
00:17:58.430 --> 00:17:58.729
So,

798
00:17:59.589 --> 00:17:59.839
You know,

799
00:17:59.920 --> 00:18:02.900
you kind of look at this a little bit sacrificial lamb kind of style.

800
00:18:03.040 --> 00:18:04.780
I don't think Klobuchar is going to lose

801
00:18:05.040 --> 00:18:05.719
in November.

802
00:18:05.829 --> 00:18:06.219
So

803
00:18:06.359 --> 00:18:08.400
it's a little bit of an interesting race for our purposes though,

804
00:18:08.479 --> 00:18:11.060
there might be real value here if you believe in Lindell,

805
00:18:11.520 --> 00:18:13.199
he's winning these polls.

806
00:18:14.030 --> 00:18:14.489
And,

807
00:18:14.500 --> 00:18:14.689
uh,

808
00:18:14.699 --> 00:18:15.579
I think there's a chance

809
00:18:15.680 --> 00:18:16.750
at least that he is,

810
00:18:16.760 --> 00:18:16.969
uh,

811
00:18:17.000 --> 00:18:17.479
the nominee.

812
00:18:17.520 --> 00:18:19.319
We're gonna watch that one closely as polls,

813
00:18:19.560 --> 00:18:19.839
uh,

814
00:18:20.079 --> 00:18:20.459
close.

815
00:18:20.640 --> 00:18:22.589
I currently have that small position only against him,

816
00:18:22.670 --> 00:18:23.060
however,

817
00:18:23.280 --> 00:18:23.400
uh,

818
00:18:23.680 --> 00:18:25.640
Republican Senate nominee is the next one I think we have.

819
00:18:25.719 --> 00:18:26.050
Is that right?

820
00:18:26.079 --> 00:18:27.949
Or we have a Democratic Senate nominee next,

821
00:18:28.000 --> 00:18:28.510
whichever one you have,

822
00:18:28.599 --> 00:18:29.030
just bring it up.

823
00:18:29.040 --> 00:18:30.599
I've got both of them here ready to talk about.

824
00:18:30.920 --> 00:18:31.000
Uh,

825
00:18:31.050 --> 00:18:32.520
here's the Democratic Senate nominee.

826
00:18:32.719 --> 00:18:34.719
You have Peggy Flanagan versus Angie Craig.

827
00:18:34.819 --> 00:18:35.680
An interesting race here.

828
00:18:35.719 --> 00:18:37.560
You got kind of like a moderate versus a left winger,

829
00:18:37.680 --> 00:18:38.839
Craig being the moderate.

830
00:18:40.109 --> 00:18:40.569
Um,

831
00:18:40.750 --> 00:18:41.189
kind of a,

832
00:18:41.510 --> 00:18:41.910
I don't know.

833
00:18:41.989 --> 00:18:42.150
I mean,

834
00:18:42.390 --> 00:18:42.589
you know,

835
00:18:42.670 --> 00:18:43.329
this is again,

836
00:18:43.390 --> 00:18:44.369
the type of race

837
00:18:44.670 --> 00:18:45.050
where

838
00:18:45.329 --> 00:18:46.609
polling is pretty close.

839
00:18:47.069 --> 00:18:47.189
Uh,

840
00:18:47.229 --> 00:18:48.250
the last poll,

841
00:18:48.400 --> 00:18:48.739
uh,

842
00:18:48.819 --> 00:18:50.989
that I have here is Craig 42,

843
00:18:51.150 --> 00:18:52.329
Flanagan 40

844
00:18:53.030 --> 00:18:54.530
with 18% undecided.

845
00:18:54.829 --> 00:18:54.989
Uh,

846
00:18:55.069 --> 00:18:57.150
we have a 40/40 race before that.

847
00:18:57.540 --> 00:18:57.739
Uh,

848
00:18:57.810 --> 00:18:58.719
in July

849
00:18:58.900 --> 00:18:59.869
from Survey USA,

850
00:19:00.339 --> 00:19:03.609
so this is a race that looks pretty close when it comes to the polling.

851
00:19:03.660 --> 00:19:05.800
We've seen some internal polling come out as well.

852
00:19:06.219 --> 00:19:07.650
Not all that interested in,

853
00:19:07.719 --> 00:19:08.319
in that,

854
00:19:08.619 --> 00:19:08.729
uh,

855
00:19:08.790 --> 00:19:09.140
but again,

856
00:19:09.260 --> 00:19:10.560
showing a relatively

857
00:19:10.880 --> 00:19:11.400
close

858
00:19:11.660 --> 00:19:12.099
race.

859
00:19:13.209 --> 00:19:13.449
What,

860
00:19:13.530 --> 00:19:16.130
what's interesting about here is we do have this dynamic,

861
00:19:16.199 --> 00:19:16.810
and this is our,

862
00:19:16.920 --> 00:19:18.770
one of our active thesis statements here,

863
00:19:18.849 --> 00:19:21.400
which is when Democrats have the choice in a primary,

864
00:19:21.449 --> 00:19:24.250
they tend to choose the more socialist leaning candidate.

865
00:19:24.689 --> 00:19:25.349
That has been

866
00:19:25.660 --> 00:19:27.089
true in most local races.

867
00:19:27.209 --> 00:19:28.280
It wasn't true in Hawaii,

868
00:19:28.300 --> 00:19:28.829
by the way.

869
00:19:29.050 --> 00:19:30.969
Hawaii kind of bucked that trend the other night.

870
00:19:31.300 --> 00:19:31.420
Uh,

871
00:19:31.500 --> 00:19:34.089
in a race where a more moderate congressman,

872
00:19:34.380 --> 00:19:34.520
uh,

873
00:19:34.530 --> 00:19:36.540
actually held on to a seat by a decent margin.

874
00:19:36.739 --> 00:19:37.250
Hawaii though,

875
00:19:37.300 --> 00:19:38.260
a little bit of a different place.

876
00:19:38.380 --> 00:19:39.420
Minnesota very used to,

877
00:19:39.540 --> 00:19:41.280
to voting for progressives,

878
00:19:41.540 --> 00:19:41.689
uh,

879
00:19:41.780 --> 00:19:43.959
and it's a race that's interesting.

880
00:19:44.459 --> 00:19:46.459
You think if you happen to be the Democrats there,

881
00:19:46.540 --> 00:19:50.380
you want someone who can take on a strong candidate from the Republicans,

882
00:19:50.500 --> 00:19:50.699
which,

883
00:19:50.780 --> 00:19:50.979
you know,

884
00:19:51.050 --> 00:19:52.050
it may or may not be.

885
00:19:52.099 --> 00:19:53.810
I think there is a pretty strong candidate there.

886
00:19:53.849 --> 00:19:54.780
We'll get to that in a second.

887
00:19:55.020 --> 00:19:56.020
So this is an interesting race.

888
00:19:56.099 --> 00:19:58.540
I do see there might be a little value in Flanagan.

889
00:19:58.819 --> 00:20:00.500
I'm gonna look into that one more and kinda,

890
00:20:00.660 --> 00:20:01.010
you know,

891
00:20:01.380 --> 00:20:02.180
kinda crunch the numbers,

892
00:20:02.260 --> 00:20:03.479
look back at a little more history

893
00:20:03.939 --> 00:20:04.859
over the next 24 hours.

894
00:20:04.939 --> 00:20:06.439
Maybe we'll include that on our tomorrow,

895
00:20:06.540 --> 00:20:07.050
uh,

896
00:20:07.060 --> 00:20:08.089
last-minute preview,

897
00:20:08.420 --> 00:20:08.569
uh,

898
00:20:08.660 --> 00:20:09.609
to that particular race.

899
00:20:09.660 --> 00:20:11.020
I am interested in Flanagan there.

900
00:20:11.140 --> 00:20:12.010
At 71%,

901
00:20:12.060 --> 00:20:12.859
you're looking at

902
00:20:12.979 --> 00:20:17.089
29% profit on a 79% or 71 cent investment.

903
00:20:17.400 --> 00:20:19.119
So you're up at almost,

904
00:20:19.420 --> 00:20:19.619
you know,

905
00:20:19.729 --> 00:20:20.060
I don't know,

906
00:20:20.280 --> 00:20:21.880
about 40% profit area,

907
00:20:22.380 --> 00:20:22.569
uh,

908
00:20:22.579 --> 00:20:23.380
off the top of my head.

909
00:20:23.489 --> 00:20:23.780
So,

910
00:20:24.260 --> 00:20:26.300
Potentially some real opportunities here.

911
00:20:26.390 --> 00:20:26.469
The,

912
00:20:26.540 --> 00:20:28.180
the Lindell one's interesting as well,

913
00:20:28.300 --> 00:20:29.739
whichever way your opinion goes there,

914
00:20:29.819 --> 00:20:31.260
there's real money to be made on that one.

915
00:20:31.300 --> 00:20:33.810
You could be looking at 100% profits on some of that.

916
00:20:34.459 --> 00:20:34.650
Very,

917
00:20:34.729 --> 00:20:35.979
very interesting dynamic.

918
00:20:36.089 --> 00:20:39.050
Let me show you real quick one that I've been recommending to you for months,

919
00:20:39.180 --> 00:20:39.380
um,

920
00:20:39.579 --> 00:20:41.010
and one of my biggest picks.

921
00:20:41.599 --> 00:20:43.239
Most of the value is dried up on this now,

922
00:20:43.319 --> 00:20:44.119
but if you were in this,

923
00:20:44.199 --> 00:20:46.030
if you've been watching Predictable show for a time,

924
00:20:46.319 --> 00:20:48.119
you've been able to make money on this race already.

925
00:20:48.199 --> 00:20:50.189
Minnesota Republican Senate nomination,

926
00:20:50.520 --> 00:20:51.119
you see,

927
00:20:51.229 --> 00:20:51.630
uh,

928
00:20:51.719 --> 00:20:53.510
we were talking about this back in,

929
00:20:53.599 --> 00:20:53.989
uh,

930
00:20:54.000 --> 00:20:56.560
the area where it was about 75% for Michelle Tafoya.

931
00:20:56.680 --> 00:20:58.699
Really liked her from the beginning in this race.

932
00:20:59.000 --> 00:20:59.160
Uh,

933
00:20:59.239 --> 00:20:59.359
you know,

934
00:20:59.459 --> 00:21:01.839
Royce White is in the news right now because he is in

935
00:21:01.839 --> 00:21:06.300
this WNBA situation where he's declared himself eligible for the WNBA draft,

936
00:21:06.680 --> 00:21:07.040
which,

937
00:21:07.439 --> 00:21:07.560
again,

938
00:21:07.680 --> 00:21:07.800
uh,

939
00:21:07.920 --> 00:21:08.119
you know,

940
00:21:08.280 --> 00:21:09.160
like it or not,

941
00:21:09.430 --> 00:21:09.790
uh,

942
00:21:10.119 --> 00:21:10.150
he,

943
00:21:10.160 --> 00:21:10.280
he,

944
00:21:10.400 --> 00:21:11.079
it's kind of funny.

945
00:21:11.410 --> 00:21:12.689
But he was an NBA player.

946
00:21:12.810 --> 00:21:14.010
If you don't know Royce White,

947
00:21:14.239 --> 00:21:14.530
uh,

948
00:21:14.650 --> 00:21:15.969
he has been talking about that and,

949
00:21:16.050 --> 00:21:16.410
and trying,

950
00:21:16.569 --> 00:21:17.280
he's been getting some,

951
00:21:17.290 --> 00:21:17.479
uh,

952
00:21:17.489 --> 00:21:18.479
good publicity out of that.

953
00:21:18.530 --> 00:21:18.839
But again,

954
00:21:18.890 --> 00:21:20.310
it's one of those situations where,

955
00:21:20.689 --> 00:21:20.810
you know,

956
00:21:21.000 --> 00:21:24.069
sometimes the online hype might be a little bit more than the reality to win the,

957
00:21:24.089 --> 00:21:24.849
uh,

958
00:21:24.859 --> 00:21:25.119
the,

959
00:21:25.130 --> 00:21:25.479
uh,

960
00:21:25.489 --> 00:21:26.109
the campaign.

961
00:21:26.609 --> 00:21:26.880
Uh,

962
00:21:26.890 --> 00:21:30.510
Tafoya is now at 99.1%.

963
00:21:31.020 --> 00:21:31.369
Uh,

964
00:21:31.540 --> 00:21:33.189
we've seen lots of opportunity though.

965
00:21:33.300 --> 00:21:33.500
I mean,

966
00:21:33.619 --> 00:21:33.739
you know,

967
00:21:33.859 --> 00:21:34.719
25%

968
00:21:34.969 --> 00:21:38.140
profit on a 75% investment is a 33% profit

969
00:21:38.140 --> 00:21:40.260
that we've locked in over a couple of months.

970
00:21:40.619 --> 00:21:42.640
Your APR on that investment is

971
00:21:42.780 --> 00:21:44.260
well over 180%,

972
00:21:44.479 --> 00:21:46.260
close to over 200% maybe,

973
00:21:46.569 --> 00:21:46.780
uh,

974
00:21:46.859 --> 00:21:47.209
for that.

975
00:21:47.380 --> 00:21:48.959
And so hopefully you were able to,

976
00:21:48.979 --> 00:21:49.170
uh,

977
00:21:49.180 --> 00:21:49.579
get on that.

978
00:21:49.619 --> 00:21:50.219
It was a really,

979
00:21:50.260 --> 00:21:50.680
uh,

980
00:21:50.810 --> 00:21:53.219
a really strong investment that we've been recommending

981
00:21:53.219 --> 00:21:55.119
for a long time here on the show.

982
00:21:55.589 --> 00:21:55.780
Uh,

983
00:21:55.869 --> 00:21:57.030
and she's now at 99%.

984
00:21:57.150 --> 00:21:59.540
Last poll there was Tafoya at 48%,

985
00:21:59.949 --> 00:22:01.410
White at 13%,

986
00:22:02.030 --> 00:22:02.349
and then,

987
00:22:02.420 --> 00:22:02.550
uh,

988
00:22:02.630 --> 00:22:02.989
down the line,

989
00:22:03.189 --> 00:22:03.500
Suarez,

990
00:22:03.599 --> 00:22:03.829
by the way,

991
00:22:03.949 --> 00:22:06.310
was got a brief bump because he was actually recommended

992
00:22:06.310 --> 00:22:08.479
in the party convention but never really caught fire.

993
00:22:08.750 --> 00:22:08.979
And then,

994
00:22:09.069 --> 00:22:09.469
as I mentioned,

995
00:22:09.670 --> 00:22:11.540
Amy Klobuchar is a Democratic nominee,

996
00:22:11.589 --> 00:22:11.729
uh,

997
00:22:11.739 --> 00:22:12.150
for governor.

998
00:22:12.229 --> 00:22:13.089
So that's where we are

999
00:22:13.750 --> 00:22:14.219
right now.

1000
00:22:14.390 --> 00:22:16.569
If you want more detail because there's a lot of smaller races,

1001
00:22:17.020 --> 00:22:17.180
you know,

1002
00:22:17.270 --> 00:22:17.380
the,

1003
00:22:17.459 --> 00:22:19.010
the issue with the smaller races

1004
00:22:19.189 --> 00:22:19.969
is a lot of times

1005
00:22:20.270 --> 00:22:20.979
you are,

1006
00:22:21.060 --> 00:22:21.310
uh,

1007
00:22:21.430 --> 00:22:24.729
in a situation where there's just not a ton of volume.

1008
00:22:25.089 --> 00:22:25.859
In some of these markets,

1009
00:22:25.900 --> 00:22:27.890
you might have 20,000 to $30,000 in a market.

1010
00:22:28.219 --> 00:22:28.660
So going,

1011
00:22:28.739 --> 00:22:29.979
getting there with a massive position,

1012
00:22:30.020 --> 00:22:30.729
it's not gonna be the case.

1013
00:22:30.819 --> 00:22:30.930
But,

1014
00:22:30.939 --> 00:22:31.140
you know,

1015
00:22:31.339 --> 00:22:31.420
again,

1016
00:22:31.459 --> 00:22:33.130
if you're looking for good profit opportunities,

1017
00:22:33.310 --> 00:22:34.849
sometimes you can find those in those smaller races.

1018
00:22:34.900 --> 00:22:35.599
So we'll go over

1019
00:22:35.819 --> 00:22:38.180
those as well and watch them as the vote comes in.

1020
00:22:38.420 --> 00:22:39.260
Watch that going up and down,

1021
00:22:39.359 --> 00:22:40.380
up and down and up and down,

1022
00:22:40.579 --> 00:22:42.160
taking advantage of those moves as much

1023
00:22:42.420 --> 00:22:43.000
as we can.

1024
00:22:43.219 --> 00:22:43.819
We're gonna take a break,

1025
00:22:43.939 --> 00:22:45.660
come back on the other side with more.

1026
00:22:45.780 --> 00:22:46.979
Go to predictableshw.com,

1027
00:22:47.140 --> 00:22:47.680
join us there.

1028
00:22:48.099 --> 00:22:48.920
Put in your Email address,

1029
00:22:48.949 --> 00:22:49.459
you get all sorts,

1030
00:22:49.579 --> 00:22:51.030
you get all the stuff that I just talked about.

1031
00:22:51.270 --> 00:22:53.420
We'll summarize all that in the kind of the show rundown.

1032
00:22:53.630 --> 00:22:54.810
You get the videos that you need.

1033
00:22:55.150 --> 00:22:56.069
You get the polling,

1034
00:22:56.109 --> 00:22:56.989
all that access

1035
00:22:57.219 --> 00:22:57.699
as well.

1036
00:22:57.869 --> 00:22:58.540
And then we will,

1037
00:22:58.579 --> 00:22:58.770
uh,

1038
00:22:58.780 --> 00:22:58.989
of course,

1039
00:22:59.099 --> 00:23:00.969
we would love to have you as well as part of our predictable

1040
00:23:01.369 --> 00:23:02.109
premium tier,

1041
00:23:02.150 --> 00:23:03.150
the Predictable posse,

1042
00:23:03.430 --> 00:23:03.989
as it will,

1043
00:23:04.069 --> 00:23:06.739
we're gonna be releasing all of our picks for tomorrow there first,

1044
00:23:06.750 --> 00:23:09.150
and we'll be discussing them over at predictableShow.com.

1045
00:23:09.270 --> 00:23:09.709
Join us

1046
00:23:09.949 --> 00:23:10.780
if you can.

1047
00:23:10.989 --> 00:23:11.750
We'll be back in a second.

1048
00:23:23.439 --> 00:23:25.270
Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.

1049
00:23:25.459 --> 00:23:29.219
8 states now have authority to ban or restrict

1050
00:23:29.630 --> 00:23:29.680
Calci.

1051
00:23:30.300 --> 00:23:31.109
According to In-game.

1052
00:23:31.349 --> 00:23:33.650
I kind of a quibble with the,

1053
00:23:33.670 --> 00:23:34.420
uh,

1054
00:23:34.430 --> 00:23:37.430
the framing of that and that like there have been some rulings,

1055
00:23:37.829 --> 00:23:38.020
uh,

1056
00:23:38.030 --> 00:23:39.000
where judges have said,

1057
00:23:39.099 --> 00:23:39.319
well,

1058
00:23:39.390 --> 00:23:39.750
you know what,

1059
00:23:39.839 --> 00:23:39.989
yeah,

1060
00:23:40.109 --> 00:23:41.219
you can enforce,

1061
00:23:41.229 --> 00:23:41.500
uh,

1062
00:23:41.510 --> 00:23:42.329
this particular

1063
00:23:42.790 --> 00:23:43.969
law or you can,

1064
00:23:43.989 --> 00:23:44.150
uh,

1065
00:23:44.189 --> 00:23:44.660
you have a,

1066
00:23:44.670 --> 00:23:45.109
uh,

1067
00:23:45.119 --> 00:23:45.130
uh,

1068
00:23:45.189 --> 00:23:45.910
a pass to,

1069
00:23:46.030 --> 00:23:46.310
to,

1070
00:23:46.589 --> 00:23:49.750
to restrict Calci for until this is decided fully.

1071
00:23:50.189 --> 00:23:51.560
We have seen that in a few states.

1072
00:23:51.719 --> 00:23:53.319
A lot of states are trying to do this.

1073
00:23:53.800 --> 00:23:55.099
I think at the end of the day,

1074
00:23:55.160 --> 00:23:56.699
they don't actually have this authority,

1075
00:23:56.880 --> 00:23:58.239
so I would quibble with the idea that they

1076
00:23:58.239 --> 00:24:00.239
now have the authority because they don't really,

1077
00:24:00.349 --> 00:24:00.719
but that,

1078
00:24:00.800 --> 00:24:00.920
you know,

1079
00:24:01.030 --> 00:24:01.119
again,

1080
00:24:01.199 --> 00:24:02.420
it takes time for these things

1081
00:24:02.640 --> 00:24:03.829
to wind through the court system.

1082
00:24:03.880 --> 00:24:04.839
The CFTC

1083
00:24:05.199 --> 00:24:06.290
quite clearly has,

1084
00:24:06.319 --> 00:24:06.670
uh,

1085
00:24:06.760 --> 00:24:07.180
has,

1086
00:24:07.199 --> 00:24:07.500
uh,

1087
00:24:07.510 --> 00:24:10.229
oversight of this particular arena,

1088
00:24:10.719 --> 00:24:11.780
but that's gonna take time,

1089
00:24:12.150 --> 00:24:12.380
uh,

1090
00:24:12.439 --> 00:24:13.560
to go through the courts.

1091
00:24:13.699 --> 00:24:15.280
Eventually we will get a situation.

1092
00:24:15.319 --> 00:24:17.349
I think this probably eventually goes to the Supreme Court,

1093
00:24:17.369 --> 00:24:17.890
honestly.

1094
00:24:18.260 --> 00:24:18.420
Uh,

1095
00:24:18.540 --> 00:24:18.760
and,

1096
00:24:18.849 --> 00:24:19.050
uh,

1097
00:24:19.060 --> 00:24:19.540
I think,

1098
00:24:19.660 --> 00:24:19.979
uh,

1099
00:24:20.099 --> 00:24:20.660
they will,

1100
00:24:20.780 --> 00:24:21.099
uh,

1101
00:24:21.260 --> 00:24:21.660
rule,

1102
00:24:21.699 --> 00:24:21.819
uh,

1103
00:24:21.859 --> 00:24:22.290
the correct way,

1104
00:24:22.339 --> 00:24:22.739
but who knows,

1105
00:24:22.859 --> 00:24:22.979
you know,

1106
00:24:23.060 --> 00:24:23.780
you never know with this stuff,

1107
00:24:23.819 --> 00:24:24.020
of course,

1108
00:24:24.099 --> 00:24:24.290
it's a,

1109
00:24:24.380 --> 00:24:25.510
it's a dangerous time if you're,

1110
00:24:25.609 --> 00:24:26.410
if you're one of these companies,

1111
00:24:26.459 --> 00:24:27.319
you're trying to,

1112
00:24:27.630 --> 00:24:27.939
uh,

1113
00:24:28.010 --> 00:24:28.780
operate in the space,

1114
00:24:28.890 --> 00:24:29.099
you know,

1115
00:24:29.300 --> 00:24:30.410
you never know what the future is.

1116
00:24:30.540 --> 00:24:32.380
And as we say over and over and over again,

1117
00:24:32.569 --> 00:24:34.660
it sucks when the government does this to companies,

1118
00:24:34.869 --> 00:24:35.180
you know,

1119
00:24:35.300 --> 00:24:36.380
when the government decides,

1120
00:24:36.459 --> 00:24:36.849
hey,

1121
00:24:37.209 --> 00:24:37.380
you know,

1122
00:24:37.500 --> 00:24:39.540
we're going to hold this over your head.

1123
00:24:39.579 --> 00:24:40.199
We talked to,

1124
00:24:40.260 --> 00:24:40.609
uh,

1125
00:24:40.630 --> 00:24:42.099
one of the co-founders of Predicted,

1126
00:24:42.219 --> 00:24:42.500
John,

1127
00:24:42.579 --> 00:24:42.770
uh,

1128
00:24:42.859 --> 00:24:43.420
the other day.

1129
00:24:43.839 --> 00:24:44.199
Um,

1130
00:24:44.290 --> 00:24:44.609
last week,

1131
00:24:44.770 --> 00:24:45.229
great episode,

1132
00:24:45.290 --> 00:24:45.640
by the way.

1133
00:24:45.729 --> 00:24:46.439
If you did not see it,

1134
00:24:46.520 --> 00:24:47.449
John Aristotle Phillips,

1135
00:24:47.609 --> 00:24:48.349
really cool guy,

1136
00:24:48.489 --> 00:24:48.560
uh,

1137
00:24:48.670 --> 00:24:49.729
a legend in this industry.

1138
00:24:49.770 --> 00:24:51.670
He's one of our Predictable Legends series.

1139
00:24:52.170 --> 00:24:52.469
Um,

1140
00:24:52.609 --> 00:24:52.920
but,

1141
00:24:53.209 --> 00:24:53.479
you know,

1142
00:24:53.729 --> 00:24:54.270
fought a

1143
00:24:54.410 --> 00:24:58.560
battle with the courts for years and years and years and years and years and years,

1144
00:24:58.569 --> 00:24:59.050
and more,

1145
00:24:59.130 --> 00:24:59.329
you know,

1146
00:24:59.489 --> 00:25:00.449
specifically the government

1147
00:25:00.650 --> 00:25:02.890
who kept trying to stop them from doing the things.

1148
00:25:02.930 --> 00:25:03.969
They gave them a free pass,

1149
00:25:04.089 --> 00:25:05.729
they built a business and then they just said one day just

1150
00:25:05.729 --> 00:25:06.959
kind of pulled the rug out from under them and said,

1151
00:25:07.010 --> 00:25:07.089
oh,

1152
00:25:07.199 --> 00:25:07.420
by the way,

1153
00:25:07.530 --> 00:25:07.609
no,

1154
00:25:07.689 --> 00:25:07.719
you,

1155
00:25:07.890 --> 00:25:07.959
no,

1156
00:25:08.010 --> 00:25:08.510
you can't.

1157
00:25:08.770 --> 00:25:08.869
Now,

1158
00:25:08.930 --> 00:25:09.699
eventually they won.

1159
00:25:10.439 --> 00:25:10.839
And John,

1160
00:25:10.880 --> 00:25:12.719
I thought was pretty upbeat about that whole process.

1161
00:25:12.800 --> 00:25:14.339
I'm more upbeat than I would be

1162
00:25:14.760 --> 00:25:15.030
about,

1163
00:25:15.040 --> 00:25:15.229
uh,

1164
00:25:15.239 --> 00:25:17.739
the way he has had to deal with the government,

1165
00:25:17.800 --> 00:25:18.859
but this happens

1166
00:25:19.099 --> 00:25:20.579
too often in our country.

1167
00:25:21.079 --> 00:25:22.390
It should not be the way this works.

1168
00:25:22.760 --> 00:25:23.479
You should not be,

1169
00:25:23.680 --> 00:25:24.319
uh,

1170
00:25:24.380 --> 00:25:24.390
uh,

1171
00:25:24.400 --> 00:25:24.520
you know,

1172
00:25:24.599 --> 00:25:24.709
we,

1173
00:25:24.800 --> 00:25:26.719
we have rules and regulations for a reason.

1174
00:25:27.060 --> 00:25:29.020
And we shouldn't be trying to constantly pull the rug

1175
00:25:29.020 --> 00:25:31.060
out from people when they're trying to build businesses.

1176
00:25:31.099 --> 00:25:32.319
It's just a terrible idea,

1177
00:25:32.339 --> 00:25:32.569
and,

1178
00:25:32.579 --> 00:25:32.699
uh,

1179
00:25:32.810 --> 00:25:32.979
you know,

1180
00:25:33.099 --> 00:25:33.459
I can't,

1181
00:25:33.540 --> 00:25:35.560
I can't say enough about how bad it's been.

1182
00:25:35.699 --> 00:25:35.839
Now,

1183
00:25:35.859 --> 00:25:36.109
luckily,

1184
00:25:36.119 --> 00:25:37.530
the CFTC currently in place,

1185
00:25:37.619 --> 00:25:38.150
Michael Selig,

1186
00:25:38.260 --> 00:25:38.800
we talked to him,

1187
00:25:39.150 --> 00:25:41.339
I think on like basically the first episode of the show,

1188
00:25:41.660 --> 00:25:41.849
uh,

1189
00:25:41.900 --> 00:25:42.760
back in the day,

1190
00:25:43.140 --> 00:25:43.329
uh,

1191
00:25:43.459 --> 00:25:43.819
is,

1192
00:25:43.910 --> 00:25:44.219
uh,

1193
00:25:44.300 --> 00:25:44.500
you know,

1194
00:25:44.900 --> 00:25:48.599
sees this as financial innovations that are doing good and create

1195
00:25:48.739 --> 00:25:49.739
real value for the,

1196
00:25:49.800 --> 00:25:50.300
for the country.

1197
00:25:50.420 --> 00:25:51.459
I agree with him on that,

1198
00:25:51.500 --> 00:25:51.890
uh,

1199
00:25:51.900 --> 00:25:52.400
sentiment

1200
00:25:52.540 --> 00:25:52.959
quite a bit.

1201
00:25:53.569 --> 00:25:53.729
Uh,

1202
00:25:53.849 --> 00:25:54.729
he is a,

1203
00:25:54.800 --> 00:25:55.160
um,

1204
00:25:55.329 --> 00:25:55.680
uh,

1205
00:25:55.689 --> 00:25:59.670
proponent for of these financial innovations and I think has been a good,

1206
00:26:00.050 --> 00:26:00.510
um,

1207
00:26:00.609 --> 00:26:03.930
steward is trying to make sure that the CFTC maintains their,

1208
00:26:04.250 --> 00:26:04.439
uh,

1209
00:26:04.449 --> 00:26:05.150
unique

1210
00:26:05.410 --> 00:26:05.760
and,

1211
00:26:05.770 --> 00:26:06.349
uh,

1212
00:26:06.369 --> 00:26:08.479
sole access to regulate these markets.

1213
00:26:08.770 --> 00:26:09.750
But in addition to that,

1214
00:26:09.770 --> 00:26:10.189
has been,

1215
00:26:10.290 --> 00:26:10.489
uh,

1216
00:26:10.609 --> 00:26:10.810
you know,

1217
00:26:10.890 --> 00:26:11.329
a very,

1218
00:26:11.449 --> 00:26:11.760
very,

1219
00:26:11.790 --> 00:26:12.189
uh,

1220
00:26:12.199 --> 00:26:12.609
uh,

1221
00:26:12.650 --> 00:26:12.849
you know,

1222
00:26:12.930 --> 00:26:13.170
a,

1223
00:26:13.209 --> 00:26:13.630
uh,

1224
00:26:13.770 --> 00:26:14.410
a person who says,

1225
00:26:14.489 --> 00:26:14.609
look,

1226
00:26:14.689 --> 00:26:16.150
we're gonna enforce the law here though,

1227
00:26:16.369 --> 00:26:16.680
right?

1228
00:26:16.930 --> 00:26:18.089
And if there's gonna be insider trading,

1229
00:26:18.150 --> 00:26:18.449
we're gonna hit,

1230
00:26:18.689 --> 00:26:19.410
we're gonna hit you on that.

1231
00:26:19.530 --> 00:26:21.569
We're gonna do these things and keep in line and

1232
00:26:21.760 --> 00:26:23.739
It's interesting to see this development as

1233
00:26:24.010 --> 00:26:25.140
uh the

1234
00:26:25.489 --> 00:26:26.099
um

1235
00:26:26.380 --> 00:26:29.859
uh from uh from the CFTC under Selig who has been,

1236
00:26:30.239 --> 00:26:30.390
you know,

1237
00:26:30.459 --> 00:26:30.780
I think,

1238
00:26:30.839 --> 00:26:31.660
friendly to,

1239
00:26:31.680 --> 00:26:32.069
uh,

1240
00:26:32.079 --> 00:26:32.630
this industry,

1241
00:26:32.760 --> 00:26:34.020
seeing it as a positive.

1242
00:26:34.319 --> 00:26:34.680
Uh,

1243
00:26:34.719 --> 00:26:35.880
this is a new thing that just came out.

1244
00:26:35.920 --> 00:26:37.520
This is from Gambling In insiders.

1245
00:26:37.680 --> 00:26:41.500
The CF CFTC warns prediction markets to stop sports book

1246
00:26:41.760 --> 00:26:42.900
style odds now.

1247
00:26:44.189 --> 00:26:45.030
It's interesting because,

1248
00:26:45.069 --> 00:26:45.260
you know,

1249
00:26:45.630 --> 00:26:46.869
if the point of this is,

1250
00:26:46.949 --> 00:26:47.099
and,

1251
00:26:47.189 --> 00:26:48.339
and I've made this point to you many,

1252
00:26:48.390 --> 00:26:48.949
many times.

1253
00:26:49.589 --> 00:26:49.949
You know,

1254
00:26:50.089 --> 00:26:50.819
is this gambling?

1255
00:26:50.869 --> 00:26:51.810
I would argue no.

1256
00:26:52.150 --> 00:26:52.310
Um,

1257
00:26:52.349 --> 00:26:53.189
I don't think it is.

1258
00:26:53.949 --> 00:26:55.869
It's a little more difficult to make that argument

1259
00:26:55.869 --> 00:26:58.550
when you're putting 220 next to the contract,

1260
00:26:58.670 --> 00:26:58.869
right?

1261
00:26:59.150 --> 00:26:59.310
And,

1262
00:26:59.369 --> 00:26:59.510
you know,

1263
00:26:59.630 --> 00:26:59.790
look,

1264
00:26:59.869 --> 00:27:02.569
most people look at this and a lot of people are coming over from

1265
00:27:02.569 --> 00:27:04.839
traditional sports gambling to prediction markets largely

1266
00:27:04.839 --> 00:27:06.390
because they get a better experience and

1267
00:27:06.550 --> 00:27:07.869
they don't get limited like these,

1268
00:27:07.949 --> 00:27:08.030
uh,

1269
00:27:08.109 --> 00:27:08.229
you know,

1270
00:27:08.300 --> 00:27:09.270
sports books do and,

1271
00:27:09.310 --> 00:27:09.510
and,

1272
00:27:09.579 --> 00:27:10.229
and things like that.

1273
00:27:10.349 --> 00:27:11.209
There's positives

1274
00:27:11.469 --> 00:27:11.849
to

1275
00:27:12.069 --> 00:27:15.349
doing the same types of activity you're doing in another arena over on

1276
00:27:15.349 --> 00:27:17.810
prediction markets cause it's a better experience for a lot of people.

1277
00:27:18.189 --> 00:27:18.310
Uh,

1278
00:27:18.369 --> 00:27:19.290
that being said,

1279
00:27:19.589 --> 00:27:20.020
uh,

1280
00:27:20.109 --> 00:27:20.310
you know,

1281
00:27:20.390 --> 00:27:20.630
it's,

1282
00:27:20.670 --> 00:27:21.180
it is a,

1283
00:27:21.229 --> 00:27:22.069
it's certainly a messaging,

1284
00:27:22.150 --> 00:27:23.030
it's difficult messaging.

1285
00:27:23.439 --> 00:27:23.750
Um,

1286
00:27:23.880 --> 00:27:26.439
people who are coming over from more traditional sports books,

1287
00:27:26.520 --> 00:27:27.560
that's how they are,

1288
00:27:27.760 --> 00:27:27.829
they,

1289
00:27:27.900 --> 00:27:29.020
it's how they look

1290
00:27:29.589 --> 00:27:30.560
at these particular things.

1291
00:27:30.719 --> 00:27:30.729
The,

1292
00:27:30.800 --> 00:27:31.949
it's how they translate it,

1293
00:27:32.000 --> 00:27:32.459
right?

1294
00:27:32.949 --> 00:27:34.469
I translated a totally different way.

1295
00:27:34.599 --> 00:27:35.869
When you go onto an app like,

1296
00:27:35.880 --> 00:27:36.160
for example,

1297
00:27:36.319 --> 00:27:36.640
Calci,

1298
00:27:36.719 --> 00:27:37.670
there are different choices.

1299
00:27:37.719 --> 00:27:39.079
You can go with trader mode,

1300
00:27:39.160 --> 00:27:40.239
I think it's prediction mode,

1301
00:27:40.270 --> 00:27:41.869
and there's a sports book mode,

1302
00:27:42.160 --> 00:27:42.680
at least there was.

1303
00:27:42.760 --> 00:27:44.180
I don't know if they've gotten rid of it already.

1304
00:27:44.640 --> 00:27:44.800
Uh,

1305
00:27:44.880 --> 00:27:46.390
where you can kind of look at the odds and,

1306
00:27:46.449 --> 00:27:47.189
and,

1307
00:27:47.280 --> 00:27:47.949
and see,

1308
00:27:47.979 --> 00:27:48.680
um,

1309
00:27:48.880 --> 00:27:49.219
you know,

1310
00:27:49.439 --> 00:27:50.160
you can see them however,

1311
00:27:50.239 --> 00:27:51.369
whatever format you want.

1312
00:27:51.520 --> 00:27:52.400
I like the percentages,

1313
00:27:52.469 --> 00:27:53.829
that's how I look at them mostly.

1314
00:27:54.069 --> 00:27:55.060
Some people like the cents,

1315
00:27:55.119 --> 00:27:56.079
like 42 cents.

1316
00:27:56.119 --> 00:27:57.109
I like 42%.

1317
00:27:57.359 --> 00:27:59.349
That's the most obvious way for me to understand it.

1318
00:27:59.680 --> 00:28:00.400
Some people though,

1319
00:28:00.479 --> 00:28:00.949
like,

1320
00:28:01.199 --> 00:28:01.670
you know,

1321
00:28:01.920 --> 00:28:03.630
plus 220% instead of that.

1322
00:28:03.760 --> 00:28:04.020
And,

1323
00:28:04.199 --> 00:28:04.439
uh,

1324
00:28:04.560 --> 00:28:04.719
you know,

1325
00:28:04.859 --> 00:28:06.640
if that's what the world you've been in for a long time,

1326
00:28:06.719 --> 00:28:07.910
I can understand why you'd like that.

1327
00:28:08.199 --> 00:28:08.880
CFTC is saying,

1328
00:28:08.959 --> 00:28:09.319
look,

1329
00:28:10.020 --> 00:28:10.140
You,

1330
00:28:10.219 --> 00:28:10.500
you know,

1331
00:28:10.819 --> 00:28:12.319
if you want to differentiate yourself from,

1332
00:28:12.339 --> 00:28:12.349
uh,

1333
00:28:12.420 --> 00:28:12.939
from,

1334
00:28:13.060 --> 00:28:13.420
uh,

1335
00:28:14.180 --> 00:28:15.699
sports betting,

1336
00:28:16.099 --> 00:28:17.969
you have to be able to take these steps,

1337
00:28:17.979 --> 00:28:18.569
and that's what,

1338
00:28:18.579 --> 00:28:18.819
uh,

1339
00:28:18.900 --> 00:28:21.020
they are warning these companies to do.

1340
00:28:21.099 --> 00:28:21.699
We'll see if that,

1341
00:28:21.739 --> 00:28:21.900
uh,

1342
00:28:21.939 --> 00:28:22.560
takes effect.

1343
00:28:22.800 --> 00:28:25.219
One of the things I wanted to bring up for you with prediction markets,

1344
00:28:25.459 --> 00:28:25.650
um,

1345
00:28:25.739 --> 00:28:29.140
they're taking center stage in latest round of quarterly earnings reports.

1346
00:28:29.219 --> 00:28:30.959
This is kind of an interesting thing because

1347
00:28:31.459 --> 00:28:32.780
we heard from Robin Hood.

1348
00:28:32.859 --> 00:28:34.020
Is Robin Hood went on here?

1349
00:28:34.949 --> 00:28:37.829
Robinhood now is making more money from prediction markets

1350
00:28:38.079 --> 00:28:40.160
than they are from traditional stock trading.

1351
00:28:41.390 --> 00:28:41.630
You know,

1352
00:28:41.750 --> 00:28:42.189
this is,

1353
00:28:42.390 --> 00:28:42.569
is,

1354
00:28:42.650 --> 00:28:44.900
it's an industry that is blowing up quickly,

1355
00:28:45.189 --> 00:28:45.349
uh,

1356
00:28:45.430 --> 00:28:45.630
uh,

1357
00:28:45.709 --> 00:28:45.910
you know,

1358
00:28:46.020 --> 00:28:49.869
and a lot of people who are looking at these things and just getting started

1359
00:28:50.150 --> 00:28:52.969
are interested because they're seeing all these headlines about it.

1360
00:28:53.270 --> 00:28:53.390
You know,

1361
00:28:53.469 --> 00:28:54.390
you're still really early,

1362
00:28:54.489 --> 00:28:55.849
but it is growing quickly.

1363
00:28:56.510 --> 00:28:57.869
Another one was DraftKings,

1364
00:28:57.880 --> 00:28:59.270
who has a prediction market as well,

1365
00:28:59.280 --> 00:28:59.560
where they,

1366
00:28:59.640 --> 00:28:59.800
they,

1367
00:28:59.839 --> 00:29:00.069
uh,

1368
00:29:00.160 --> 00:29:00.939
they operate,

1369
00:29:01.079 --> 00:29:02.900
I'm not sure if they operate it through

1370
00:29:03.670 --> 00:29:04.640
another source.

1371
00:29:04.829 --> 00:29:05.040
Some,

1372
00:29:05.239 --> 00:29:06.359
some places you go,

1373
00:29:06.479 --> 00:29:06.630
uh,

1374
00:29:06.680 --> 00:29:07.560
just in case you've,

1375
00:29:07.680 --> 00:29:07.839
you know,

1376
00:29:07.910 --> 00:29:08.469
if you see this,

1377
00:29:08.520 --> 00:29:09.079
you have

1378
00:29:09.359 --> 00:29:10.699
some prediction markets are their own

1379
00:29:11.280 --> 00:29:12.780
markets or their own exchanges.

1380
00:29:13.079 --> 00:29:15.760
Others are kind of just running them through like a

1381
00:29:15.890 --> 00:29:16.880
Calci or a polymarket.

1382
00:29:16.949 --> 00:29:18.300
They're using their infrastructure

1383
00:29:18.510 --> 00:29:19.469
and allowing you to go on their,

1384
00:29:19.560 --> 00:29:20.510
at their site to,

1385
00:29:20.520 --> 00:29:20.750
uh,

1386
00:29:20.760 --> 00:29:22.099
put in investments through,

1387
00:29:22.359 --> 00:29:22.829
uh,

1388
00:29:22.839 --> 00:29:23.349
these other,

1389
00:29:23.439 --> 00:29:23.589
uh,

1390
00:29:23.640 --> 00:29:24.550
these other sources.

1391
00:29:24.930 --> 00:29:25.050
Uh,

1392
00:29:25.170 --> 00:29:28.119
DraftKing platform growing faster than expected,

1393
00:29:28.209 --> 00:29:30.530
$11 billion in revenue,

1394
00:29:30.569 --> 00:29:32.130
up from $2.3 billion

1395
00:29:32.479 --> 00:29:33.540
from last quarter,

1396
00:29:33.689 --> 00:29:35.849
grew 106% on Coinbase.

1397
00:29:36.170 --> 00:29:39.670
Robinhood events contract revenue came in at $156 million.

1398
00:29:40.010 --> 00:29:40.729
This is growing really,

1399
00:29:40.770 --> 00:29:41.329
really fast,

1400
00:29:41.339 --> 00:29:41.609
and it's,

1401
00:29:41.689 --> 00:29:43.930
it's funny because now there's prediction markets on

1402
00:29:44.050 --> 00:29:45.349
the actual earnings calls.

1403
00:29:45.699 --> 00:29:46.170
Um.

1404
00:29:46.689 --> 00:29:48.160
Do we have the earnings call of,

1405
00:29:48.209 --> 00:29:48.630
uh,

1406
00:29:49.050 --> 00:29:49.160
uh,

1407
00:29:49.209 --> 00:29:49.890
what do we have here?

1408
00:29:50.040 --> 00:29:50.510
Uh,

1409
00:29:50.930 --> 00:29:51.449
Coinbase?

1410
00:29:51.609 --> 00:29:51.689
Oh,

1411
00:29:51.750 --> 00:29:51.810
no,

1412
00:29:51.969 --> 00:29:52.369
that's the,

1413
00:29:52.449 --> 00:29:53.030
that's the,

1414
00:29:53.130 --> 00:29:54.430
I wanna play that clip in a second.

1415
00:29:54.530 --> 00:29:55.130
Give me the market though,

1416
00:29:55.209 --> 00:29:55.410
Adam,

1417
00:29:55.479 --> 00:29:56.000
if we could.

1418
00:29:56.280 --> 00:29:56.640
This is,

1419
00:29:56.660 --> 00:29:56.959
uh,

1420
00:29:57.040 --> 00:29:57.609
this one is,

1421
00:29:57.660 --> 00:29:57.989
uh,

1422
00:29:58.089 --> 00:29:58.510
hymns.

1423
00:29:58.560 --> 00:29:59.130
Here we go.

1424
00:29:59.489 --> 00:29:59.599
Uh,

1425
00:29:59.650 --> 00:30:00.790
what will hymns say

1426
00:30:01.010 --> 00:30:02.250
during their next earning call?

1427
00:30:02.449 --> 00:30:04.670
I assume one of the options is boing.

1428
00:30:05.000 --> 00:30:05.170
Um,

1429
00:30:05.290 --> 00:30:05.329
no,

1430
00:30:05.489 --> 00:30:06.890
if you scroll kind of scroll down a little bit,

1431
00:30:07.000 --> 00:30:07.160
uh,

1432
00:30:07.219 --> 00:30:07.670
you'll see,

1433
00:30:07.810 --> 00:30:07.920
uh,

1434
00:30:07.969 --> 00:30:08.469
the terms,

1435
00:30:08.479 --> 00:30:11.050
and then you can kind of follow on and listen to these.

1436
00:30:11.630 --> 00:30:12.040
Uh,

1437
00:30:12.119 --> 00:30:12.719
this is a site,

1438
00:30:12.900 --> 00:30:12.910
uh,

1439
00:30:13.079 --> 00:30:14.119
online pharmacy type of place.

1440
00:30:14.189 --> 00:30:14.680
They do sell,

1441
00:30:14.760 --> 00:30:15.040
uh,

1442
00:30:15.119 --> 00:30:15.359
you know,

1443
00:30:15.479 --> 00:30:15.880
um,

1444
00:30:16.040 --> 00:30:16.270
uh,

1445
00:30:16.280 --> 00:30:17.699
mail or not male enhancement,

1446
00:30:17.790 --> 00:30:19.660
I guess erectile dysfunction would be the right term.

1447
00:30:19.949 --> 00:30:20.479
Uh,

1448
00:30:20.489 --> 00:30:20.719
uh,

1449
00:30:20.839 --> 00:30:21.099
different,

1450
00:30:21.160 --> 00:30:21.359
you know,

1451
00:30:21.680 --> 00:30:22.199
treatments.

1452
00:30:22.479 --> 00:30:22.839
They have,

1453
00:30:22.920 --> 00:30:25.319
I think GLP ones are a big part of their business here now,

1454
00:30:25.400 --> 00:30:26.859
so you see words like peptide.

1455
00:30:27.239 --> 00:30:27.520
And,

1456
00:30:27.560 --> 00:30:27.790
uh,

1457
00:30:27.800 --> 00:30:28.239
testosterone,

1458
00:30:28.319 --> 00:30:29.310
eucalyptus is up there,

1459
00:30:29.359 --> 00:30:30.920
I guess they sell something with eucalyptus in it.

1460
00:30:31.160 --> 00:30:31.239
Uh,

1461
00:30:31.359 --> 00:30:31.760
we govi,

1462
00:30:31.869 --> 00:30:33.040
one of the GLP ones,

1463
00:30:33.119 --> 00:30:33.589
uh,

1464
00:30:33.599 --> 00:30:34.150
wearable,

1465
00:30:34.199 --> 00:30:34.400
meaning,

1466
00:30:34.520 --> 00:30:34.640
you know,

1467
00:30:34.719 --> 00:30:36.469
I guess that meaning the thing that you can kind of,

1468
00:30:36.760 --> 00:30:36.949
you know,

1469
00:30:37.319 --> 00:30:37.750
measure,

1470
00:30:37.760 --> 00:30:38.069
uh,

1471
00:30:38.079 --> 00:30:40.349
your heartbeat and sleep and all that other stuff,

1472
00:30:40.550 --> 00:30:41.079
lab testing,

1473
00:30:41.160 --> 00:30:41.979
longevity.

1474
00:30:42.160 --> 00:30:43.199
They have all these different terms.

1475
00:30:43.310 --> 00:30:44.390
Will they say that?

1476
00:30:44.640 --> 00:30:45.359
What is their focus?

1477
00:30:45.439 --> 00:30:46.660
What do they see as important in,

1478
00:30:46.670 --> 00:30:47.119
in,

1479
00:30:47.229 --> 00:30:47.599
in their business?

1480
00:30:47.714 --> 00:30:48.005
Business.

1481
00:30:48.045 --> 00:30:49.744
Do they see competition with Amazon

1482
00:30:50.084 --> 00:30:50.834
as a big thing?

1483
00:30:51.045 --> 00:30:51.765
If you think yes,

1484
00:30:51.844 --> 00:30:52.354
you can do very,

1485
00:30:52.444 --> 00:30:52.685
very well.

1486
00:30:52.724 --> 00:30:53.974
It's only at 16%.

1487
00:30:54.204 --> 00:30:54.324
Uh,

1488
00:30:54.364 --> 00:30:54.805
tariffs,

1489
00:30:54.885 --> 00:30:55.005
you know,

1490
00:30:55.084 --> 00:30:56.084
they're gonna talk about tariffs all,

1491
00:30:56.165 --> 00:30:57.265
that's only 8%.

1492
00:30:57.484 --> 00:30:58.984
And you can kind of pick these terms

1493
00:30:59.125 --> 00:31:00.165
if you know this business.

1494
00:31:00.204 --> 00:31:02.204
If you're the type of person who's maybe invested in this company,

1495
00:31:02.324 --> 00:31:04.084
maybe listened to their previous calls,

1496
00:31:04.204 --> 00:31:05.795
you can go back and look at their previous ones.

1497
00:31:05.844 --> 00:31:06.864
What do they talk about?

1498
00:31:07.165 --> 00:31:08.125
Research this out.

1499
00:31:08.530 --> 00:31:08.689
Uh,

1500
00:31:08.770 --> 00:31:10.770
this is something that some traders do really,

1501
00:31:10.920 --> 00:31:11.050
really,

1502
00:31:11.130 --> 00:31:11.719
really well on.

1503
00:31:11.790 --> 00:31:12.800
I'm mixed on this,

1504
00:31:12.890 --> 00:31:13.439
frankly,

1505
00:31:13.650 --> 00:31:14.560
when it comes to,

1506
00:31:14.569 --> 00:31:14.760
uh,

1507
00:31:14.770 --> 00:31:15.880
my performance on,

1508
00:31:15.890 --> 00:31:16.260
uh,

1509
00:31:16.420 --> 00:31:17.469
not mail-in performance.

1510
00:31:17.660 --> 00:31:19.430
I'm talking about performance when it comes to.

1511
00:31:20.729 --> 00:31:21.069
Sorry.

1512
00:31:21.290 --> 00:31:21.449
I,

1513
00:31:21.500 --> 00:31:23.170
I just did an episode of Stu and Dave Do America.

1514
00:31:23.250 --> 00:31:24.010
You have to forgive me.

1515
00:31:24.170 --> 00:31:24.369
Um,

1516
00:31:24.420 --> 00:31:24.609
I,

1517
00:31:24.670 --> 00:31:24.900
uh,

1518
00:31:24.969 --> 00:31:25.439
uh,

1519
00:31:25.449 --> 00:31:25.609
the,

1520
00:31:25.670 --> 00:31:26.079
uh,

1521
00:31:26.170 --> 00:31:26.560
the,

1522
00:31:26.699 --> 00:31:27.739
when it comes to performance on,

1523
00:31:27.750 --> 00:31:27.760
uh,

1524
00:31:27.770 --> 00:31:28.489
these mention markets,

1525
00:31:28.609 --> 00:31:29.410
I do all right.

1526
00:31:29.569 --> 00:31:30.969
Like I did well the last one I did,

1527
00:31:31.079 --> 00:31:34.030
which was a debate between two candidates I followed closely

1528
00:31:34.170 --> 00:31:34.750
in Michigan.

1529
00:31:35.170 --> 00:31:35.520
This one,

1530
00:31:35.569 --> 00:31:35.969
I don't know.

1531
00:31:36.010 --> 00:31:36.369
I don't,

1532
00:31:36.449 --> 00:31:36.949
I

1533
00:31:37.050 --> 00:31:37.839
don't have a lot of research.

1534
00:31:37.890 --> 00:31:39.349
I'd have to really go through and see,

1535
00:31:39.739 --> 00:31:39.969
uh,

1536
00:31:40.050 --> 00:31:41.800
what was going on to try to go through those.

1537
00:31:41.849 --> 00:31:43.680
But I will say one funny thing you may have missed from,

1538
00:31:43.729 --> 00:31:44.630
I think it was last year.

1539
00:31:44.969 --> 00:31:45.410
Uh,

1540
00:31:45.449 --> 00:31:46.130
Coinbase,

1541
00:31:46.329 --> 00:31:47.770
they had a mention market

1542
00:31:48.290 --> 00:31:48.790
about

1543
00:31:49.050 --> 00:31:50.729
which terms you could use,

1544
00:31:50.849 --> 00:31:51.869
they would use in their,

1545
00:31:51.969 --> 00:31:52.359
uh,

1546
00:31:52.369 --> 00:31:52.869
call,

1547
00:31:53.250 --> 00:31:53.520
and,

1548
00:31:53.569 --> 00:31:53.689
you know,

1549
00:31:53.800 --> 00:31:54.520
Brian Armstrong,

1550
00:31:54.569 --> 00:31:55.010
who's very,

1551
00:31:55.089 --> 00:31:55.250
you know,

1552
00:31:55.319 --> 00:31:57.089
he's on the forefront of financial innovation.

1553
00:31:57.130 --> 00:31:57.569
He's been a big,

1554
00:31:57.650 --> 00:31:57.719
uh,

1555
00:31:57.729 --> 00:31:59.089
crypto proponent and

1556
00:31:59.329 --> 00:32:00.810
he's interested in these prediction markets as well.

1557
00:32:00.890 --> 00:32:02.489
They added prediction markets to Coinbase.

1558
00:32:02.569 --> 00:32:04.199
So if you have a Coinbase account,

1559
00:32:04.390 --> 00:32:04.849
you're thinking like,

1560
00:32:04.890 --> 00:32:05.489
where do I sign up?

1561
00:32:05.530 --> 00:32:08.329
You can go right through Coinbase if you'd like to go through prediction markets,

1562
00:32:08.369 --> 00:32:08.640
but

1563
00:32:08.920 --> 00:32:09.119
Uh,

1564
00:32:09.239 --> 00:32:09.719
this was a,

1565
00:32:09.849 --> 00:32:11.040
this is one of his prediction,

1566
00:32:11.160 --> 00:32:11.800
this is one of his,

1567
00:32:11.839 --> 00:32:12.189
uh,

1568
00:32:12.400 --> 00:32:15.640
calls that there was a mention mark on an earnings call from Coinbase,

1569
00:32:15.869 --> 00:32:16.780
Brian Armstrong,

1570
00:32:17.000 --> 00:32:18.760
and this is how he ended the call,

1571
00:32:18.839 --> 00:32:19.000
uh,

1572
00:32:19.079 --> 00:32:19.400
last year.

1573
00:32:19.500 --> 00:32:19.800
Listen.

1574
00:32:20.849 --> 00:32:23.369
I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction

1575
00:32:23.369 --> 00:32:26.010
market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call,

1576
00:32:26.050 --> 00:32:26.869
and I just wanna.

1577
00:32:27.890 --> 00:32:28.510
You know,

1578
00:32:28.890 --> 00:32:30.209
add here the words Bitcoin,

1579
00:32:30.290 --> 00:32:30.770
Ethereum,

1580
00:32:30.890 --> 00:32:31.609
blockchain,

1581
00:32:31.770 --> 00:32:32.890
staking,

1582
00:32:33.530 --> 00:32:36.510
and web 3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.

1583
00:32:39.459 --> 00:32:40.979
So that is legitimately so

1584
00:32:41.260 --> 00:32:42.540
he did that intentionally

1585
00:32:42.819 --> 00:32:45.199
so he could check off all the mention marks right at the end.

1586
00:32:45.459 --> 00:32:45.739
Uh,

1587
00:32:45.829 --> 00:32:46.189
so,

1588
00:32:46.219 --> 00:32:47.339
hopefully you had yes

1589
00:32:47.540 --> 00:32:48.619
on all of those because,

1590
00:32:48.660 --> 00:32:48.859
uh,

1591
00:32:48.900 --> 00:32:49.449
frankly,

1592
00:32:49.660 --> 00:32:50.979
if you didn't have yes on them,

1593
00:32:51.140 --> 00:32:52.760
you probably didn't think that was as funny

1594
00:32:52.979 --> 00:32:53.800
as I just did.

1595
00:32:53.939 --> 00:32:54.290
OK,

1596
00:32:54.500 --> 00:32:54.609
uh,

1597
00:32:54.619 --> 00:32:55.369
I'm gonna take a break,

1598
00:32:55.380 --> 00:32:57.540
back in a second with more.

1599
00:33:04.219 --> 00:33:04.579
Well,

1600
00:33:04.660 --> 00:33:05.640
if you happen to miss it,

1601
00:33:05.790 --> 00:33:06.140
uh,

1602
00:33:06.219 --> 00:33:07.780
on I think we have Friday we did it.

1603
00:33:07.859 --> 00:33:10.650
Our album release party for Stu's Picks.

1604
00:33:10.780 --> 00:33:11.020
Yes,

1605
00:33:11.099 --> 00:33:11.939
I have picks.

1606
00:33:12.079 --> 00:33:12.089
Uh,

1607
00:33:12.140 --> 00:33:13.979
I have lots of positions in prediction markets,

1608
00:33:14.020 --> 00:33:14.890
as you might imagine.

1609
00:33:15.219 --> 00:33:16.540
More than I can talk about here,

1610
00:33:16.619 --> 00:33:16.729
uh,

1611
00:33:16.739 --> 00:33:17.180
frankly,

1612
00:33:17.199 --> 00:33:17.949
on the show.

1613
00:33:18.180 --> 00:33:20.199
And if you are a premium subscriber to our,

1614
00:33:20.219 --> 00:33:20.680
uh,

1615
00:33:20.780 --> 00:33:20.819
website,

1616
00:33:20.939 --> 00:33:22.199
predictableshow.com,

1617
00:33:22.260 --> 00:33:23.540
you get access to all of them.

1618
00:33:23.660 --> 00:33:24.859
Even the ones that are really small,

1619
00:33:24.939 --> 00:33:26.459
even the ones that are really stupid.

1620
00:33:26.790 --> 00:33:27.520
They're all there

1621
00:33:27.680 --> 00:33:29.949
and we kind of did it like an album release party,

1622
00:33:30.040 --> 00:33:31.489
kind of felt like a big thing where we,

1623
00:33:31.599 --> 00:33:32.920
we get posted it for everyone to see.

1624
00:33:32.959 --> 00:33:33.910
They could kind of go through it.

1625
00:33:34.079 --> 00:33:34.199
We,

1626
00:33:34.290 --> 00:33:34.949
we actually made,

1627
00:33:35.000 --> 00:33:35.329
uh,

1628
00:33:35.349 --> 00:33:36.510
fake covers of,

1629
00:33:36.599 --> 00:33:37.420
of the albums.

1630
00:33:37.680 --> 00:33:37.800
Uh,

1631
00:33:37.869 --> 00:33:39.760
they wound up going with this one for the first edition.

1632
00:33:39.880 --> 00:33:40.219
This is,

1633
00:33:40.239 --> 00:33:40.550
uh,

1634
00:33:40.560 --> 00:33:42.119
me as I think LL Cool J.

1635
00:33:42.439 --> 00:33:42.560
Look,

1636
00:33:42.760 --> 00:33:43.760
I look really cool.

1637
00:33:43.959 --> 00:33:45.660
Only 5.99 for that particular,

1638
00:33:45.719 --> 00:33:46.189
uh,

1639
00:33:46.199 --> 00:33:46.689
record,

1640
00:33:46.920 --> 00:33:47.040
uh,

1641
00:33:47.219 --> 00:33:47.790
Stu's picks.

1642
00:33:47.800 --> 00:33:48.479
And then you've got

1643
00:33:48.640 --> 00:33:49.000
this one,

1644
00:33:49.280 --> 00:33:49.979
the country,

1645
00:33:50.040 --> 00:33:50.260
uh,

1646
00:33:50.280 --> 00:33:51.819
version of Stu's picks.

1647
00:33:52.109 --> 00:33:53.140
Someone pointed out

1648
00:33:53.359 --> 00:33:55.260
that it might look a little Tallarico-ish here.

1649
00:33:56.140 --> 00:33:58.329
A little inauthentic country boy,

1650
00:33:58.709 --> 00:33:59.189
uh,

1651
00:33:59.310 --> 00:33:59.589
which is,

1652
00:33:59.650 --> 00:33:59.930
by the way,

1653
00:34:00.069 --> 00:34:00.189
true,

1654
00:34:00.329 --> 00:34:00.339
um,

1655
00:34:00.469 --> 00:34:01.449
I was born in New York,

1656
00:34:01.750 --> 00:34:02.300
but also,

1657
00:34:02.349 --> 00:34:02.579
uh,

1658
00:34:02.589 --> 00:34:03.089
hurtful,

1659
00:34:03.229 --> 00:34:03.239
uh,

1660
00:34:03.349 --> 00:34:03.819
frankly,

1661
00:34:04.020 --> 00:34:04.150
uh,

1662
00:34:04.229 --> 00:34:04.469
when you,

1663
00:34:04.540 --> 00:34:06.719
when you put me in the same breath as James Tallarico,

1664
00:34:07.069 --> 00:34:08.020
I'm not happy about it.

1665
00:34:08.070 --> 00:34:10.500
But if you wanna look at me as a real authentic tough guy,

1666
00:34:10.560 --> 00:34:11.489
I think it's this one.

1667
00:34:12.110 --> 00:34:12.570
this is,

1668
00:34:12.590 --> 00:34:12.938
uh,

1669
00:34:13.168 --> 00:34:13.850
me as a.

1670
00:34:14.909 --> 00:34:16.060
Glam metal guy.

1671
00:34:16.449 --> 00:34:16.610
Uh,

1672
00:34:16.668 --> 00:34:16.969
I guess,

1673
00:34:17.090 --> 00:34:17.199
uh,

1674
00:34:17.330 --> 00:34:18.040
Stu's picks,

1675
00:34:18.050 --> 00:34:18.250
uh,

1676
00:34:18.370 --> 00:34:21.909
by Stubergear available at predictableshow.com.

1677
00:34:21.969 --> 00:34:24.969
And there's a reason why we did make a big deal of this because we've done very,

1678
00:34:25.010 --> 00:34:26.889
very well so far and so far made

1679
00:34:27.090 --> 00:34:29.458
a lot of premium subscribers and free subscribers.

1680
00:34:29.760 --> 00:34:29.969
Uh,

1681
00:34:30.050 --> 00:34:32.320
we've been able to go on a fun journey together where we've done very,

1682
00:34:32.409 --> 00:34:33.668
very well throughout these

1683
00:34:33.840 --> 00:34:34.370
primaries.

1684
00:34:34.449 --> 00:34:37.409
We'd like to update you on the record as we have the update here today.

1685
00:34:37.489 --> 00:34:39.000
Our win rate by investment size.

1686
00:34:39.050 --> 00:34:40.800
We have 5 different investment sizes,

1687
00:34:41.010 --> 00:34:43.560
55 different investment sizes that we do,

1688
00:34:43.889 --> 00:34:45.728
kind of based on the confidence that I have.

1689
00:34:45.955 --> 00:34:46.534
In any

1690
00:34:46.985 --> 00:34:47.754
individual pick.

1691
00:34:48.074 --> 00:34:48.195
Uh,

1692
00:34:48.274 --> 00:34:50.155
our marker size position right now,

1693
00:34:50.195 --> 00:34:51.034
our smallest position,

1694
00:34:51.074 --> 00:34:52.225
kind of just kind of marked the market.

1695
00:34:52.353 --> 00:34:52.594
Basically,

1696
00:34:52.635 --> 00:34:53.455
I think of that one is

1697
00:34:53.625 --> 00:34:54.185
when I see a market,

1698
00:34:54.235 --> 00:34:54.514
I'm like,

1699
00:34:54.594 --> 00:34:54.715
oh,

1700
00:34:54.754 --> 00:34:55.514
that's interesting.

1701
00:34:55.764 --> 00:34:56.793
I'll put a very small,

1702
00:34:56.833 --> 00:34:57.225
like,

1703
00:34:57.314 --> 00:34:57.614
you know,

1704
00:34:57.834 --> 00:34:58.875
really small position.

1705
00:34:59.104 --> 00:35:00.054
It can be as low as a share

1706
00:35:00.435 --> 00:35:00.975
on a market.

1707
00:35:01.074 --> 00:35:01.225
Uh,

1708
00:35:01.304 --> 00:35:01.675
so far there,

1709
00:35:01.715 --> 00:35:03.715
we are 53 and 19 on the year,

1710
00:35:03.794 --> 00:35:05.455
73.6%

1711
00:35:05.995 --> 00:35:06.655
success rate.

1712
00:35:06.955 --> 00:35:08.145
When we go a little bit higher than that,

1713
00:35:08.225 --> 00:35:09.495
we call it a small position,

1714
00:35:09.675 --> 00:35:09.875
uh,

1715
00:35:10.074 --> 00:35:11.074
because this is like more like,

1716
00:35:11.155 --> 00:35:12.235
I have an idea here,

1717
00:35:12.334 --> 00:35:14.014
but I haven't done all the deep research on it.

1718
00:35:14.274 --> 00:35:15.175
I'll move it into the small.

1719
00:35:15.372 --> 00:35:15.691
Position,

1720
00:35:15.971 --> 00:35:17.922
not gonna hurt me badly or anything if I lose,

1721
00:35:18.062 --> 00:35:18.261
but,

1722
00:35:18.322 --> 00:35:18.461
you know,

1723
00:35:18.541 --> 00:35:19.332
I certainly like to win.

1724
00:35:19.531 --> 00:35:19.902
There we are,

1725
00:35:19.912 --> 00:35:21.662
48-10 on the year,

1726
00:35:21.741 --> 00:35:23.941
our 10th loss going into double digits

1727
00:35:24.181 --> 00:35:24.961
coming from

1728
00:35:25.302 --> 00:35:26.521
Corey freaking Bush.

1729
00:35:26.791 --> 00:35:27.201
Thanks a lot,

1730
00:35:27.352 --> 00:35:27.731
Corey.

1731
00:35:27.941 --> 00:35:30.362
82.8% success rate there.

1732
00:35:30.541 --> 00:35:31.662
On medium positions,

1733
00:35:31.741 --> 00:35:33.981
we are 53-1 on the year,

1734
00:35:34.082 --> 00:35:35.562
98.1%

1735
00:35:35.941 --> 00:35:36.441
success rate.

1736
00:35:36.731 --> 00:35:37.021
Uh,

1737
00:35:37.142 --> 00:35:37.531
we,

1738
00:35:37.602 --> 00:35:37.892
uh,

1739
00:35:37.941 --> 00:35:38.412
have done really,

1740
00:35:38.422 --> 00:35:38.751
really well,

1741
00:35:38.781 --> 00:35:40.172
and we get to medium confidence.

1742
00:35:40.221 --> 00:35:42.981
I do expect to basically win most or all of these,

1743
00:35:43.342 --> 00:35:43.541
uh,

1744
00:35:43.662 --> 00:35:44.662
and we did lose one.

1745
00:35:45.110 --> 00:35:46.379
You're probably asking what the one is,

1746
00:35:46.389 --> 00:35:47.949
and I have to go over the story every single time,

1747
00:35:48.020 --> 00:35:48.270
but

1748
00:35:48.550 --> 00:35:49.739
he's now our dearly,

1749
00:35:49.830 --> 00:35:51.379
dearly departed Lindsey Graham,

1750
00:35:51.550 --> 00:35:53.590
not winning by 20 points in his primary,

1751
00:35:53.699 --> 00:35:53.840
uh,

1752
00:35:53.949 --> 00:35:54.389
was the,

1753
00:35:54.469 --> 00:35:54.750
uh,

1754
00:35:54.830 --> 00:35:55.790
I think it was 20 points,

1755
00:35:55.830 --> 00:35:56.419
it might have been 30,

1756
00:35:56.469 --> 00:35:57.110
but it was anyway,

1757
00:35:57.580 --> 00:36:01.250
his sort of more blowout win in a race that he almost didn't have any competition.

1758
00:36:01.629 --> 00:36:02.129
I will note,

1759
00:36:02.350 --> 00:36:03.370
that's why I took that position.

1760
00:36:03.750 --> 00:36:03.850
Uh,

1761
00:36:03.909 --> 00:36:04.659
we did lose that 1,

1762
00:36:04.739 --> 00:36:05.780
53 and 1 there.

1763
00:36:05.949 --> 00:36:06.750
Our large positions,

1764
00:36:06.790 --> 00:36:09.110
we are 27-0 at 100%.

1765
00:36:09.479 --> 00:36:09.979
Again,

1766
00:36:10.340 --> 00:36:10.989
I don't know,

1767
00:36:11.080 --> 00:36:12.860
I can't remember the last time we lost a large position.

1768
00:36:12.919 --> 00:36:14.709
I don't intend to ever lose large positions.

1769
00:36:14.989 --> 00:36:16.510
And then all in positions when we're really,

1770
00:36:16.560 --> 00:36:17.659
really super duper sure,

1771
00:36:18.159 --> 00:36:19.040
6-0

1772
00:36:19.239 --> 00:36:20.199
at 100%.

1773
00:36:20.280 --> 00:36:23.040
We're over 92%,

1774
00:36:23.080 --> 00:36:23.459
I think,

1775
00:36:23.469 --> 00:36:23.679
total.

1776
00:36:23.830 --> 00:36:23.840
Uh,

1777
00:36:23.879 --> 00:36:24.560
you have to add that up.

1778
00:36:24.639 --> 00:36:25.939
I'm not gonna do the math for you.

1779
00:36:26.199 --> 00:36:26.600
This is a,

1780
00:36:26.679 --> 00:36:28.000
this is a nerdy math show.

1781
00:36:28.120 --> 00:36:28.679
Add it up,

1782
00:36:28.840 --> 00:36:29.320
check it out.

1783
00:36:29.399 --> 00:36:30.389
I don't know what it means,

1784
00:36:30.469 --> 00:36:30.780
but

1785
00:36:31.000 --> 00:36:32.600
I will tell you that those picks are there,

1786
00:36:32.629 --> 00:36:34.560
and that's one of the reasons why we've invested them or.

1787
00:36:34.875 --> 00:36:35.514
invested time

1788
00:36:35.735 --> 00:36:36.455
into building a,

1789
00:36:36.495 --> 00:36:37.735
a resource for you

1790
00:36:37.895 --> 00:36:39.794
to be able to see all these picks

1791
00:36:40.014 --> 00:36:41.004
as early as possible.

1792
00:36:41.175 --> 00:36:42.834
We have a subscriber-only chat.

1793
00:36:42.995 --> 00:36:43.004
They,

1794
00:36:43.094 --> 00:36:43.554
when we

1795
00:36:43.774 --> 00:36:45.014
first come out with uh new picks,

1796
00:36:45.094 --> 00:36:48.114
and we'll do this a lot during the next couple of days as we lead into these primaries.

1797
00:36:48.334 --> 00:36:49.534
Whenever I take a new position,

1798
00:36:49.735 --> 00:36:51.284
I'll put it in that chat.

1799
00:36:51.629 --> 00:36:51.790
Uh,

1800
00:36:51.909 --> 00:36:52.540
so all,

1801
00:36:52.590 --> 00:36:52.750
uh,

1802
00:36:53.110 --> 00:36:55.060
paid subscribers can see it first.

1803
00:36:55.389 --> 00:36:55.729
That's

1804
00:36:55.830 --> 00:36:57.270
basically a tier designed for,

1805
00:36:57.429 --> 00:36:57.590
you know,

1806
00:36:57.699 --> 00:36:58.310
more traders.

1807
00:36:58.429 --> 00:36:58.500
Look,

1808
00:36:58.550 --> 00:36:59.110
if you're a huge,

1809
00:36:59.179 --> 00:36:59.689
uh,

1810
00:36:59.790 --> 00:37:00.070
supporter,

1811
00:37:00.189 --> 00:37:02.229
maybe you've been a fan since the Glenn days and,

1812
00:37:02.310 --> 00:37:02.659
and just,

1813
00:37:02.750 --> 00:37:02.870
you know,

1814
00:37:02.989 --> 00:37:03.570
really,

1815
00:37:03.620 --> 00:37:03.899
really nice,

1816
00:37:03.909 --> 00:37:05.260
and we would love to have you on the,

1817
00:37:05.310 --> 00:37:06.260
on the premium tier as well,

1818
00:37:06.310 --> 00:37:07.070
even if you're not,

1819
00:37:07.350 --> 00:37:07.510
uh,

1820
00:37:07.629 --> 00:37:08.350
someone who's trading,

1821
00:37:08.429 --> 00:37:09.840
you do get this live stream.

1822
00:37:10.489 --> 00:37:12.570
Every day that we do kind of a behind the scenes,

1823
00:37:12.840 --> 00:37:14.659
we answer your questions every day

1824
00:37:14.830 --> 00:37:15.620
in a Q&A.

1825
00:37:15.699 --> 00:37:16.000
So,

1826
00:37:16.179 --> 00:37:16.969
that's cool too.

1827
00:37:17.060 --> 00:37:17.179
Uh,

1828
00:37:17.260 --> 00:37:17.929
lots of different reasons,

1829
00:37:17.939 --> 00:37:18.169
I think,

1830
00:37:18.260 --> 00:37:18.979
lots of great benefits,

1831
00:37:19.060 --> 00:37:19.679
great community,

1832
00:37:20.090 --> 00:37:20.379
um,

1833
00:37:20.500 --> 00:37:22.199
lots of cool stuff is available

1834
00:37:22.379 --> 00:37:23.860
as part of the premium tier.

1835
00:37:24.139 --> 00:37:24.300
But,

1836
00:37:24.419 --> 00:37:24.540
you know,

1837
00:37:24.620 --> 00:37:28.250
kind of the maybe central attraction are all of these picks.

1838
00:37:28.459 --> 00:37:29.449
And if you happen to be a trader,

1839
00:37:29.459 --> 00:37:30.600
I think it's well worth,

1840
00:37:30.659 --> 00:37:30.879
uh,

1841
00:37:30.889 --> 00:37:31.159
paying,

1842
00:37:31.219 --> 00:37:31.969
uh,

1843
00:37:31.979 --> 00:37:32.100
the,

1844
00:37:32.179 --> 00:37:33.199
the amount that it costs.

1845
00:37:33.919 --> 00:37:34.250
Frankly,

1846
00:37:34.330 --> 00:37:34.600
it's,

1847
00:37:34.629 --> 00:37:34.879
uh,

1848
00:37:34.889 --> 00:37:36.800
a lot of people have already said it's paid for,

1849
00:37:36.919 --> 00:37:39.550
for itself already in just the first week that we've had it.

1850
00:37:39.649 --> 00:37:39.770
Uh,

1851
00:37:39.850 --> 00:37:41.399
here is what the website looks like,

1852
00:37:41.449 --> 00:37:41.879
by the way,

1853
00:37:42.050 --> 00:37:42.729
when you look for the pics.

1854
00:37:42.929 --> 00:37:43.530
At the top of,

1855
00:37:43.540 --> 00:37:43.790
uh,

1856
00:37:43.800 --> 00:37:44.719
predictableShow.com,

1857
00:37:44.770 --> 00:37:46.110
you'll see a little tab that says

1858
00:37:46.489 --> 00:37:47.120
Stu's Pics.

1859
00:37:47.250 --> 00:37:49.189
It has my ridiculous LL Cool J picture

1860
00:37:49.330 --> 00:37:49.939
at the top of it.

1861
00:37:50.129 --> 00:37:51.169
But if you scroll down a little bit,

1862
00:37:51.250 --> 00:37:53.489
there's a bunch of stuff here explaining basically what

1863
00:37:53.489 --> 00:37:54.969
all this stuff means and then a little,

1864
00:37:55.000 --> 00:37:55.229
uh,

1865
00:37:55.250 --> 00:37:56.070
database.

1866
00:37:56.439 --> 00:37:57.760
Here of Stu's picks.

1867
00:37:57.840 --> 00:37:58.000
Now,

1868
00:37:58.080 --> 00:37:59.439
if you look at it here on the page,

1869
00:37:59.760 --> 00:38:00.280
you can,

1870
00:38:00.379 --> 00:38:00.709
um,

1871
00:38:00.800 --> 00:38:02.199
you can only see about 3 or 4 picks,

1872
00:38:02.439 --> 00:38:03.560
but if you kind of scroll over there,

1873
00:38:03.629 --> 00:38:03.840
Adam,

1874
00:38:03.879 --> 00:38:05.709
to the little box in the upper right-hand corner,

1875
00:38:05.760 --> 00:38:06.239
click on that,

1876
00:38:06.320 --> 00:38:07.500
it'll expand it to

1877
00:38:07.719 --> 00:38:08.620
a full screen,

1878
00:38:08.800 --> 00:38:09.580
and then you can go through

1879
00:38:09.830 --> 00:38:10.939
all the picks that I have,

1880
00:38:11.040 --> 00:38:11.159
you know,

1881
00:38:11.320 --> 00:38:12.360
stuff on movies,

1882
00:38:12.550 --> 00:38:13.639
stuff on Bitcoin,

1883
00:38:13.800 --> 00:38:14.239
stuff on,

1884
00:38:14.320 --> 00:38:14.800
uh,

1885
00:38:14.959 --> 00:38:15.199
you know,

1886
00:38:15.639 --> 00:38:15.959
elections,

1887
00:38:16.320 --> 00:38:17.120
Gillaine Maxwell,

1888
00:38:17.159 --> 00:38:18.120
I'm seeing scroll by.

1889
00:38:18.310 --> 00:38:19.379
There's Marsha Blackburn.

1890
00:38:19.649 --> 00:38:20.689
That one is closed now,

1891
00:38:20.770 --> 00:38:21.290
but that

1892
00:38:21.449 --> 00:38:22.449
pick had been up there for a while.

1893
00:38:22.530 --> 00:38:24.919
We had a large position on Marsha Blackburn to win that primary,

1894
00:38:24.969 --> 00:38:25.929
which she wound up doing.

1895
00:38:26.129 --> 00:38:27.810
And you see the pick actually right below that

1896
00:38:28.010 --> 00:38:30.010
is a large position on Michelle Tafoya

1897
00:38:30.250 --> 00:38:30.750
to win

1898
00:38:31.209 --> 00:38:32.810
her primary in Minnesota

1899
00:38:33.129 --> 00:38:33.570
tomorrow.

1900
00:38:33.830 --> 00:38:34.199
That's,

1901
00:38:34.209 --> 00:38:34.879
uh,

1902
00:38:34.969 --> 00:38:35.129
you know,

1903
00:38:35.250 --> 00:38:36.600
one of those things where,

1904
00:38:36.610 --> 00:38:36.919
uh,

1905
00:38:36.929 --> 00:38:39.070
we think that access to this

1906
00:38:39.449 --> 00:38:42.810
will be a really helpful tool for people who are trading.

1907
00:38:43.129 --> 00:38:45.719
There's about 214 positions,

1908
00:38:45.770 --> 00:38:46.790
I think was the last count.

1909
00:38:47.229 --> 00:38:47.469
Uh,

1910
00:38:47.540 --> 00:38:48.270
I have,

1911
00:38:48.530 --> 00:38:48.659
uh,

1912
00:38:48.840 --> 00:38:48.949
I,

1913
00:38:49.070 --> 00:38:49.590
I had,

1914
00:38:49.629 --> 00:38:49.800
uh,

1915
00:38:49.909 --> 00:38:51.419
there when we were posting it,

1916
00:38:51.510 --> 00:38:53.090
we update that big kind of

1917
00:38:53.229 --> 00:38:53.959
database

1918
00:38:54.189 --> 00:38:55.090
every single week,

1919
00:38:55.310 --> 00:38:55.760
and then,

1920
00:38:55.830 --> 00:38:56.020
uh,

1921
00:38:56.030 --> 00:38:59.590
the minute to minute updates you'll get in the subscriber-only chat just

1922
00:38:59.590 --> 00:39:01.110
because it would take too long to get them up there.

1923
00:39:01.189 --> 00:39:02.629
So I wanna make sure you get them as soon as you can.

1924
00:39:02.909 --> 00:39:03.189
Basically,

1925
00:39:03.310 --> 00:39:03.580
because,

1926
00:39:03.790 --> 00:39:03.909
you know,

1927
00:39:04.020 --> 00:39:05.090
especially in these lower,

1928
00:39:05.270 --> 00:39:05.889
um,

1929
00:39:05.989 --> 00:39:06.419
uh,

1930
00:39:06.429 --> 00:39:07.649
liquidity markets

1931
00:39:07.750 --> 00:39:08.419
when there's only 2000,

1932
00:39:08.540 --> 00:39:08.729
30,

1933
00:39:08.840 --> 00:39:09.790
40,000 in there.

1934
00:39:10.300 --> 00:39:10.580
You know,

1935
00:39:10.699 --> 00:39:12.179
when we go and we talk about these things,

1936
00:39:12.260 --> 00:39:12.840
they will move.

1937
00:39:13.060 --> 00:39:13.219
You know,

1938
00:39:13.469 --> 00:39:14.790
if you could buy it at 8,

1939
00:39:14.899 --> 00:39:15.020
you know,

1940
00:39:15.139 --> 00:39:16.379
you buy some of that 10 cents,

1941
00:39:16.389 --> 00:39:16.879
uh,

1942
00:39:16.889 --> 00:39:17.120
today,

1943
00:39:17.659 --> 00:39:17.820
uh,

1944
00:39:17.899 --> 00:39:18.719
you,

1945
00:39:18.800 --> 00:39:20.139
if you wait hours and hours and hours and hours,

1946
00:39:20.219 --> 00:39:21.100
you might still get it,

1947
00:39:21.260 --> 00:39:22.649
but you might get it at 15 or 20.

1948
00:39:22.899 --> 00:39:25.719
And we wanna make sure you get the highest profit possible.

1949
00:39:25.870 --> 00:39:26.229
So,

1950
00:39:26.620 --> 00:39:27.060
check out,

1951
00:39:27.100 --> 00:39:27.389
uh,

1952
00:39:27.399 --> 00:39:28.110
Stu's picks.

1953
00:39:28.219 --> 00:39:28.300
Uh,

1954
00:39:28.379 --> 00:39:29.939
it's unpredictableShow.com.

1955
00:39:29.979 --> 00:39:31.080
It's gonna be a premium tier

1956
00:39:31.219 --> 00:39:32.459
subscriber to get access to that,

1957
00:39:32.570 --> 00:39:33.280
we would I'd love you

1958
00:39:33.479 --> 00:39:37.080
to be part of the team and hopefully profit with us as we go forward to November.

1959
00:39:37.320 --> 00:39:38.479
There's so much coming tomorrow.

1960
00:39:38.560 --> 00:39:40.659
I wanna make sure you understand that tomorrow we will have

1961
00:39:40.879 --> 00:39:41.580
kind of like a quick,

1962
00:39:41.600 --> 00:39:42.310
uh,

1963
00:39:42.320 --> 00:39:42.959
secondary preview.

1964
00:39:43.000 --> 00:39:44.760
Anything breaking over the next 24 hours,

1965
00:39:44.830 --> 00:39:45.399
we'll get to

1966
00:39:45.600 --> 00:39:46.860
on a preview tomorrow,

1967
00:39:46.919 --> 00:39:47.270
uh,

1968
00:39:47.439 --> 00:39:48.139
during the day.

1969
00:39:48.800 --> 00:39:51.020
We'll outline whatever we can kind of come up with there,

1970
00:39:51.399 --> 00:39:52.379
and we will,

1971
00:39:52.399 --> 00:39:52.540
uh,

1972
00:39:52.600 --> 00:39:53.379
give you whatever,

1973
00:39:53.439 --> 00:39:53.719
uh,

1974
00:39:53.780 --> 00:39:56.179
selections that we have that we've noticed so far.

1975
00:39:56.689 --> 00:39:57.800
Then as we get into the night,

1976
00:39:58.000 --> 00:39:59.500
around the time the polls are closing,

1977
00:39:59.600 --> 00:39:59.800
I,

1978
00:39:59.919 --> 00:40:01.399
I'll put my sheet down here with all the pollsing,

1979
00:40:01.600 --> 00:40:01.629
uh,

1980
00:40:01.639 --> 00:40:02.280
closing times,

1981
00:40:02.320 --> 00:40:02.570
but

1982
00:40:02.979 --> 00:40:05.110
It's mostly 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. tomorrow.

1983
00:40:05.449 --> 00:40:08.550
There's not a lot of like crazy West Coast stuff that we have to wait up all night for.

1984
00:40:08.870 --> 00:40:09.540
So 7:00 p.m.,

1985
00:40:09.550 --> 00:40:10.489
8:00 p.m. Eastern,

1986
00:40:10.669 --> 00:40:10.860
uh,

1987
00:40:10.870 --> 00:40:11.780
closing times

1988
00:40:12.030 --> 00:40:12.590
will be on.

1989
00:40:12.709 --> 00:40:15.489
We'll be talking on Blaze TV and we'll be going on our own,

1990
00:40:15.590 --> 00:40:15.820
uh,

1991
00:40:15.830 --> 00:40:18.070
YouTube page and uh social media

1992
00:40:18.239 --> 00:40:18.929
as well as,

1993
00:40:18.979 --> 00:40:19.300
uh,

1994
00:40:19.310 --> 00:40:19.479
subscribe.

1995
00:40:19.709 --> 00:40:20.699
Suscriber only chat

1996
00:40:20.840 --> 00:40:23.000
at some point during the evening as well to kind of

1997
00:40:23.000 --> 00:40:24.840
go over the positions and watch those votes come in.

1998
00:40:24.919 --> 00:40:27.360
I can't tell you how many times people have been on these rides

1999
00:40:27.600 --> 00:40:28.260
where we've seen

2000
00:40:28.840 --> 00:40:29.560
things change,

2001
00:40:29.719 --> 00:40:31.780
things go out of whack in an election,

2002
00:40:31.919 --> 00:40:33.879
maybe you got a 90% favorite that winds up losing.

2003
00:40:33.959 --> 00:40:35.239
We try to catch those as they come,

2004
00:40:35.320 --> 00:40:36.320
as the vote comes in.

2005
00:40:36.719 --> 00:40:37.439
It's not always easy,

2006
00:40:37.520 --> 00:40:39.560
but we've been able to do it several times so far.

2007
00:40:39.679 --> 00:40:40.709
So if you wanna be part of that,

2008
00:40:41.080 --> 00:40:41.439
join us.

2009
00:40:41.479 --> 00:40:42.040
You can watch,

2010
00:40:42.260 --> 00:40:42.439
you know,

2011
00:40:42.520 --> 00:40:43.500
90% of that

2012
00:40:43.639 --> 00:40:45.679
for free at predictableShow.com

2013
00:40:45.919 --> 00:40:47.020
and into the evening

2014
00:40:47.159 --> 00:40:48.100
with our premium

2015
00:40:48.399 --> 00:40:49.060
subscribers.

2016
00:40:49.199 --> 00:40:50.040
That's all we have for,

2017
00:40:50.199 --> 00:40:50.959
for you today.

2018
00:40:51.040 --> 00:40:51.709
I want you,

2019
00:40:51.719 --> 00:40:52.000
uh,

2020
00:40:52.040 --> 00:40:52.159
to,

2021
00:40:52.239 --> 00:40:52.600
if you will,

2022
00:40:52.800 --> 00:40:53.280
Take a moment,

2023
00:40:53.479 --> 00:40:54.399
subscribe wherever you are.

2024
00:40:54.520 --> 00:40:56.080
Go to the YouTube page at predictable show.

2025
00:40:56.159 --> 00:40:57.260
If you're a podcast listener,

2026
00:40:57.320 --> 00:40:58.520
if you like listening audio only,

2027
00:40:58.800 --> 00:40:59.520
anywhere you get your podcast,

2028
00:40:59.600 --> 00:41:00.199
you can get us

2029
00:41:00.399 --> 00:41:01.060
predictable,

2030
00:41:01.280 --> 00:41:01.479
uh,

2031
00:41:01.489 --> 00:41:02.110
with Stu,

2032
00:41:02.199 --> 00:41:03.419
and we will see you

2033
00:41:03.760 --> 00:41:06.100
tomorrow for a one of the biggest primary

2034
00:41:06.709 --> 00:41:07.909
days of the year.

2035
00:41:08.179 --> 00:41:08.560
We'll see you then.