Welcome
to Predictable with Stu.
A lot coming up this week.
We've got primaries all over the place,
Wisconsin,
South Carolina,
Minnesota,
Vermont,
Connecticut,
some Alabama stuff too.
Tomorrow is one of the biggest primary days of the year.
I wanna prep you for that today.
We'll go into some other stuff on,
uh,
It kind of is an interesting thing going on in the world of
corporate earnings calls and how that factors into the prediction market escape,
which is,
I don't know,
it's a fascinating thing to follow.
Uh,
and also I want to tell,
tell you about my picks,
how you can get my picks,
uh,
and hopefully that that will benefit you.
Because we believe with 85 days
until the midterm elections,
we believe
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for your pain.
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a little bit more
predictable.
Let's get to it.
Last week on this very program,
we hit a 2,000+%
market position
on
Haley Stevens,
who didn't even wind up winning.
Because that's what we do here.
That's what we do here,
or at least that's what we attempt to do here.
And we've done very successfully so far.
We'll go through some of that here
in a little bit.
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so join us there.
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Coming up tomorrow on the election.
Landscape,
one of the biggest days of the year when it comes to primaries.
Connecticut,
Minnesota,
Vermont,
Wisconsin,
South Carolina,
and we don't have it listed there,
but also Alabama
would fall into that category.
They,
because of the redistricting,
they have,
I think,
4 races.
I think the 1st,
2nd,
6th,
and 7th districts
are going to be going on and that,
uh,
is going to be in the middle of this as well.
There's tons and tons of races.
Obviously,
we can't go through every single race.
There's dozens of them.
Uh,
tomorrow.
We will start covering that stuff more and more as we go into today
and into tomorrow to try to get you into the minor stuff.
But I wanna go through some of the big ones because there are some big ones,
uh,
tomorrow.
Some of these nights,
maybe the races aren't as sexy,
maybe they're not as big of a deal,
maybe they're a little more calm
and cool and collected,
uh,
but,
uh,
you know,
this one is a big one,
frankly.
And we're gonna start
with Hong.
Yes,
Will
Hong
be the latest Democratic socialist to win
a Midwest state?
It comes from the Milwaukee,
uh,
Journal Sentinel.
If you don't know who Hong is,
it's Francesca Hong,
and she is a candidate for the Democratic,
uh,
candidacy or the nomination for the gubernatorial,
uh,
position
in Wisconsin.
It has been a really
weird
race,
and frankly,
she is.
A strange candidate.
I,
I gotta be honest with you.
This is not me like I do believe that socialism is horrible for our country,
and that's.
That is a belief that I strongly hold.
Uh,
but that's kind of a sidebar for you,
uh,
from this particular race because
if I think I can make money off of a socialist winning in these races,
it's something that I'm going to do,
uh,
because I can't control the world.
I can't control the outcomes for all these elections.
I've come to terms with that.
That's not my role in the,
in the society.
What I can hopefully help you do is
pay for a nice dinner
out with your spouse,
uh,
off of these elections.
Uh,
and if people are gonna make bad decisions,
well,
What am I gonna do?
Again,
I like to be paid for my pain.
Here is Hong.
This is the sort of candidate she is.
Let me give you a quick candidate profile,
if you will.
Uh,
here is her,
uh,
Hong talking about her unfortunate and
devastating
proximity.
To whiteness.
I wasn't always aware of of the struggles
of other communities of color because for me,
assimilation always kind of took over.
And so,
um,
I,
I did marry,
uh,
um,
my proximity to whiteness continues,
right?
I,
my
son is biracial.
He's he's half white and half Korean and um I think navigating,
um,
you know,
what his identity is and then how people perceive him is
is always at the back of my mind as well.
Now,
you don't wanna have that proximity to whiteness,
especially when it's your own son.
That's just a devastating thing to discover,
that your own son is half white.
Look,
it's a weird world.
I'm not gonna go too deep into this,
but I do wanna give you a little bit more.
Here is Hong talking to,
uh,
Caitlin Collins
about her particular opinion on,
and it's a unique one,
on Thanksgiving.
Was a post from you in 2021,
um,
where you said Americans should cancel Thanksgiving,
should have done this in 1621.
Uh,
the post has been deleted.
Republicans have been highlighting it.
Do you still believe that,
uh,
Thanksgiving should be canceled?
I'm a chef
and one of the first meals that I made,
uh,
that was,
um,
for the community,
uh,
when I was 16 was a Thanksgiving meal.
You know,
I always think
my hospitality background and owning a restaurant for
78 years that bringing folks around the table,
uh,
to share
conversation and build community is always a good thing.
But Thanksgiving is also a time that's incredibly painful for me.
Many people in our communities.
And so
I think there I wanted to make sure
that people understood that there are multiple views,
but
some views can evolve and
the position that I'm running for right now,
and I think my background as a chef
will actually help me become a better governor that's able to bring more people
to the table.
It's
a
fascinating answer.
I love this.
Uh,
she says that there are multiple views on Thanksgiving.
Uh,
but views can evolve.
She's not saying her views have evolved.
At no point in that answer does she say
that her views have evolved and she really likes Thanksgiving now.
She just says that they can theoretically evolve.
So that's good to know.
I hope you,
uh,
are excited about that.
I love that too.
It's like,
uh,
when someone asks you a really direct question where there's an obvious answer,
you know,
hey,
did you,
uh,
did you cheat on your,
on your wife?
I'm a chef.
That has,
that's not an answer to that.
The answer easily is no.
And I bring that up,
not because I,
you know,
look,
do I think she's
a bit insane?
Sure.
But that's not really even why I bring this up.
I bring this up because
when it comes to candidate quality,
there's a really easy answer to,
do you think Thanksgiving is the Holocaust?
And the answer to that is no.
Do you think Thanksgiving should be canceled?
The answer,
it's a really easy,
it's two letters,
no.
That's the way you answer that question,
even if you don't believe it
as a candidate,
but she's trying to win a Democratic primary.
She wants to say there's lots of different views on Thanksgiving.
Apparently,
this is working out very,
very well for her.
Now,
I will tell you this race is really,
really strange.
It's been a very strange race.
There have been people who are much more well known than,
uh,
Hong
in this race,
uh,
who have just kind of gone to the sideline and,
and,
and dropped out of the race,
including Mandela Barnes.
I wanna show you this polling from The New York Times.
Uh,
if you look from the bottom of this,
this is the farthest away or timeline wise,
you see Hong plus 20,
Hong plus 29,
Hong plus 25,
and,
you know,
here she is,
she's leading the race 46 to 21.
The person in second place is Mandela Barnes,
who's dropped out.
So she has what seemingly should be a really clear path,
uh,
tomorrow night,
uh,
52% to 33% over Crowley,
who now seems to be the only,
David Crowley is the only,
uh,
the only,
uh,
person competing with her at this point.
You'll note that both of these polls,
hung by 19 and Hong by 18,
those are the best two polls
for,
uh,
for
Crowley in this race,
both
sponsored by Crowley.
So,
uh,
this is one where it does seem like Hong should win this race,
and you seem,
you would think relatively easily.
Let's look at the markets.
Let's,
uh,
bring up,
uh,
Wisconsin Democratic governor
nominee.
This one is on Cal,
uh,
Calshi,
I believe,
yes.
And
you see now Hong at 95.8%. I will say.
There's some value there,
I think at 95%.
I mean,
there's a lot of polling here,
there's a lot of polls at this race.
All of his,
her most serious competition is gone.
And frankly,
it's a pretty good,
uh,
it's even at 95%,
I do have a position on that and will probably make it bigger.
I don't remember what size I have at this moment.
I think it's maybe a small position,
but I think I might grow that at 95%.
I'm,
I'm willing
to actually take a larger position
on Francesca
Hong in that particular
race because,
uh,
you know,
look,
it's strange.
I,
uh,
you know,
Wisconsin is a state that's like the home of progressivism,
the birthplace of American progressivism.
They're very familiar and friendly to very left-wing
candidates and can do that in the,
in the left side of that state,
even though it's a purplish state overall.
It makes them very,
very vulnerable in that race.
I mean,
Francesca Hong could lose in Wisconsin even in a,
in a Democratic leaning year,
but it does seem like the,
the,
they're gonna live and die
with her at this point,
and that seems like where we are
in that particular race,
uh,
Darlene Graham.
Is the other big story and maybe the other second biggest one in South Carolina.
Obviously we had the death of Lindsey Graham,
who passed away a few weeks ago.
They could,
could have chosen anyone in the world or anyone in the state at least to,
uh,
to step in.
They decided to choose his sister,
uh,
Darlene.
Uh,
Darlene is now the senator from the state.
That's already happened.
The question is now who wins,
uh,
the opportunity to run
for this seat in November to hold a six-year term.
The reporting behind the scenes here is that uh they
initially,
Trump wanted to go with Fry,
who's a congressman
who was running in this race,
uh,
and then,
and was eventually talked out of it,
met with Darlene Graham,
really liked her,
and decided to endorse Darlene.
Graham.
So she is the Trump endorsed nominee in this race.
Will Darlene Graham face the same fate as Pamela Yvette did in South Carolina?
We bring this one up because
we talked about this race at the time.
Yvette was the one that we kind of ended our thesis statement.
It was an active thesis to a retired thesis.
That basically Trump can get whoever he wants in in these primaries.
That served us very,
very well early in the primary season,
seemed to fade a little bit.
It was on the,
on the rocks there,
and then,
uh,
it faded when,
when,
when Yvette was not able to hold that,
she made it into the,
uh,
runoff but was not able to hold
the seat,
um,
and win.
And,
you know,
it's an interesting race because.
Anecdotally,
I will tell you this,
talking to a lot of people who are in South Carolina who observed this,
uh,
South Carolina situation.
Lindsey Graham was
A very well-known figure
in South Carolina.
He was a guy that we made a decent amount of
money on when he actually ran in the primary this year.
Had a,
had an all-in position on his race.
It was a little closer than I realized and,
uh,
than I thought it was going to be,
uh,
but we still won easily because we like to leave a lot of clearance,
right?
I don't like,
I don't like going in on a strong position like that when there's a 1 or 2-point lead.
I want a 10-point lead that if it goes the wrong way,
is only a 2-point lead,
but we still win.
That's the way I look at a lot of these things.
And Lindsey Graham,
uh,
did,
he was never,
you know,
I guess there's a little bit of like retroactive because he
passed away at 71 years old and in an unexpected fashion.
There's a little bit of this retroactive,
he was this
beloved figure in the state.
Um,
you know,
he was respected.
He brought a lot of,
uh,
stuff home,
uh,
to the region.
Uh,
he did some things well for the state.
If you happen to be very hawkish in your foreign policy,
you probably had a high opinion of him.
But he was never super beloved by the Republican Party.
He never got a big challenger,
largely because he was a very powerful
senator,
um,
and had a high status in the government,
but he always was able to,
he would always have these guys that were kinda like,
maybe interesting,
maybe,
uh,
you know,
state senators.
It was that type of challenger.
He never really got those big name challengers.
And for that reason,
he was able to win,
but he never was,
you know,
80 and 90% of the vote in these primaries.
Uh,
I think he won 57% in this particular primary this year,
uh,
which was a disappointing number.
Um,
he,
uh,
and it was,
you know,
running against no,
you know,
not,
no big challenger,
though,
is it,
uh,
can we get this market real quick?
This is a poly market for,
uh,
South Carolina Republican Senate,
uh,
special primary winner.
And you see,
uh,
Darlene Graham Nordone at 39.7%,
Russell Frye,
which again was the kind of a MAGA type uh congressman.
Trump's kind of initial pick
is at 27.2%,
Ralph Norman at 25%.
And Mark Sanford at 2.9%. And then there's also,
I think Mark Lynch is in the race as well.
Uh,
he is,
he was the initial challenger.
He's still in the race,
but it's not thought to be a serious challenger here.
Uh,
what you're gonna get here,
and this,
remember the rules
are always always important to know our Second Amendment,
uh,
to our predictable constitution is you gotta read the rules.
You also need to know the rules of the particular election in South Carolina.
We have a,
uh,
top two unless someone gets over
the 50th
percentile.
So,
you have to get 50% or they will do a runoff.
Most likely,
that's what we're looking at here.
It's going to be a runoff.
It would be
pretty shocking if someone got over 50%.
I don't expect that.
I mean,
the only one who probably has a chance is Darlene Graham,
but I would not expect,
uh,
that particular outcome.
Uh,
the other one,
I do have a no position on Ralph Norman,
and I'm not sure that he's not gonna make this runoff.
I think there's,
it's fifty-fifty whether he makes the runoff or not.
I do think that in this situation,
it would be tough for him to win in South Carolina.
Though as we've seen,
Trump's endorsements only go so far,
and a lot of times,
it's not just an endorsement,
it's a passion for that endorsement.
He had real passion against Thomas Massey.
It was one of the reasons why we did very,
very well in that going with Ed Galloway,
his opponent.
Because
of the passion and interest that Donald Trump had in that race.
I don't know that he has that interest,
interest against Darlene Graham,
particularly
if it goes against Russell Frye.
I,
it could be a situation like he did to Pamela Yvett where he was like,
oh well,
actually both of them were great,
and that ruined everything for Yvette,
uh,
as far as the Trump endorsement goes.
What we could see here
is a situation where it is
Darlene Graham versus Russell Frye.
If that,
I think Frye could actually win.
Uh,
in that particular back and forth.
Ralph Norman's sort of another story.
Norman is,
uh,
you know,
he,
he does some things well,
people like him.
He was,
uh,
but he was like a Nikki Haley.
Pick
and that is something that Donald Trump does not like very much.
Uh,
someone who kind of got went against his pick
and also,
uh,
is,
you know,
uh,
close with Haley,
that's just not the Trump formula.
So I would expect if Norman gets into that race,
there'd be more passion
for,
for Darlene Graham or Russell Frye,
whoever it happens to be to get in there.
So I do have a no there.
I have a no on Mark Sanford as well.
I don't think that's going to happen.
Uh,
so that is,
uh,
the case there in that race.
And then we have a few races in Minnesota I wanna go through
quickly,
uh,
before we move on.
With a lot more at predictableShow.com on these races.
Uh,
political analysts give last-minute money take on Minnesota primaries.
Money Matters is the headline
from CBS News.
So,
three interesting races I'm gonna highlight here.
I'm not gonna get too deep into
the congressional stuff,
uh,
for,
for this particular segment
just because there's so much to go through.
Um,
uh,
but there are some good opportunities there that we
will go to a little bit more unpredictableshow.com.
Let's start with the Minnesota Republican governor nominee.
Is that the first one we have here?
Yeah,
here we go.
Um,
and the,
this has been a fascinating market actually.
If you're listening on podcast,
I'll try to describe the dynamics here.
You have a big lead by Lisa Demuth for until about May
when she dropped off,
uh,
and a big pickup by Kendall Quals who went into the lead.
Uh,
then Lisa Demuth,
Demuth took that lead again and held it all the way until,
I don't know,
late July,
early August.
And then out of nowhere,
Mike Lindell,
remember the MyPillow guy,
he is running in this race,
and he skyrocketed to about
80%.
I had a no position on him.
It's a,
it might be a marker position,
pretty small position for sure,
uh,
because,
you know,
Lindell is,
he's a character,
we've,
we had him on the,
the old show back in the day.
It just doesn't seem like he's necessarily going to be a uniting figure among the,
really even the Republican Party,
let alone the state.
Uh,
but he has,
you know,
done pretty well in the,
in,
in some of the polling here.
He's got some money of his own that he's spending apparently on this race,
and,
uh,
he is,
uh,
he's in the running here.
Which is kind of interesting.
We've seen a surge by Demuth in the prediction markets
over the past couple of weeks though.
And now
what we have here is 62% for Demuth.
Lindell,
about 38% chance
to win
in that race.
Uh,
Qus seems to have fallen off
in a significant fashion.
Do we have some polls on this?
Last poll I saw here was Lindell still leading
34 to 28 over Demuth.
Quals at 17%.
Um,
you know,
Lindell has led most of the polling here.
So
The question is,
can name ID get you over the,
over the top here?
Michael Lindell,
I don't think is the type of candidate that can get you
50 or 60% even in the Republican primary.
The fact is he might win this race with 35 or 40%,
and that is going to put
the Minnesota race,
which I have a strong position on the Minnesota Democrat to win in this race,
um,
uh,
that would be Amy Klobuchar.
So,
You know,
you kind of look at this a little bit sacrificial lamb kind of style.
I don't think Klobuchar is going to lose
in November.
So
it's a little bit of an interesting race for our purposes though,
there might be real value here if you believe in Lindell,
he's winning these polls.
And,
uh,
I think there's a chance
at least that he is,
uh,
the nominee.
We're gonna watch that one closely as polls,
uh,
close.
I currently have that small position only against him,
however,
uh,
Republican Senate nominee is the next one I think we have.
Is that right?
Or we have a Democratic Senate nominee next,
whichever one you have,
just bring it up.
I've got both of them here ready to talk about.
Uh,
here's the Democratic Senate nominee.
You have Peggy Flanagan versus Angie Craig.
An interesting race here.
You got kind of like a moderate versus a left winger,
Craig being the moderate.
Um,
kind of a,
I don't know.
I mean,
you know,
this is again,
the type of race
where
polling is pretty close.
Uh,
the last poll,
uh,
that I have here is Craig 42,
Flanagan 40
with 18% undecided.
Uh,
we have a 40/40 race before that.
Uh,
in July
from Survey USA,
so this is a race that looks pretty close when it comes to the polling.
We've seen some internal polling come out as well.
Not all that interested in,
in that,
uh,
but again,
showing a relatively
close
race.
What,
what's interesting about here is we do have this dynamic,
and this is our,
one of our active thesis statements here,
which is when Democrats have the choice in a primary,
they tend to choose the more socialist leaning candidate.
That has been
true in most local races.
It wasn't true in Hawaii,
by the way.
Hawaii kind of bucked that trend the other night.
Uh,
in a race where a more moderate congressman,
uh,
actually held on to a seat by a decent margin.
Hawaii though,
a little bit of a different place.
Minnesota very used to,
to voting for progressives,
uh,
and it's a race that's interesting.
You think if you happen to be the Democrats there,
you want someone who can take on a strong candidate from the Republicans,
which,
you know,
it may or may not be.
I think there is a pretty strong candidate there.
We'll get to that in a second.
So this is an interesting race.
I do see there might be a little value in Flanagan.
I'm gonna look into that one more and kinda,
you know,
kinda crunch the numbers,
look back at a little more history
over the next 24 hours.
Maybe we'll include that on our tomorrow,
uh,
last-minute preview,
uh,
to that particular race.
I am interested in Flanagan there.
At 71%,
you're looking at
29% profit on a 79% or 71 cent investment.
So you're up at almost,
you know,
I don't know,
about 40% profit area,
uh,
off the top of my head.
So,
Potentially some real opportunities here.
The,
the Lindell one's interesting as well,
whichever way your opinion goes there,
there's real money to be made on that one.
You could be looking at 100% profits on some of that.
Very,
very interesting dynamic.
Let me show you real quick one that I've been recommending to you for months,
um,
and one of my biggest picks.
Most of the value is dried up on this now,
but if you were in this,
if you've been watching Predictable show for a time,
you've been able to make money on this race already.
Minnesota Republican Senate nomination,
you see,
uh,
we were talking about this back in,
uh,
the area where it was about 75% for Michelle Tafoya.
Really liked her from the beginning in this race.
Uh,
you know,
Royce White is in the news right now because he is in
this WNBA situation where he's declared himself eligible for the WNBA draft,
which,
again,
uh,
you know,
like it or not,
uh,
he,
it's kind of funny.
But he was an NBA player.
If you don't know Royce White,
uh,
he has been talking about that and,
and trying,
he's been getting some,
uh,
good publicity out of that.
But again,
it's one of those situations where,
you know,
sometimes the online hype might be a little bit more than the reality to win the,
uh,
the,
uh,
the campaign.
Uh,
Tafoya is now at 99.1%.
Uh,
we've seen lots of opportunity though.
I mean,
you know,
25%
profit on a 75% investment is a 33% profit
that we've locked in over a couple of months.
Your APR on that investment is
well over 180%,
close to over 200% maybe,
uh,
for that.
And so hopefully you were able to,
uh,
get on that.
It was a really,
uh,
a really strong investment that we've been recommending
for a long time here on the show.
Uh,
and she's now at 99%.
Last poll there was Tafoya at 48%,
White at 13%,
and then,
uh,
down the line,
Suarez,
by the way,
was got a brief bump because he was actually recommended
in the party convention but never really caught fire.
And then,
as I mentioned,
Amy Klobuchar is a Democratic nominee,
uh,
for governor.
So that's where we are
right now.
If you want more detail because there's a lot of smaller races,
you know,
the,
the issue with the smaller races
is a lot of times
you are,
uh,
in a situation where there's just not a ton of volume.
In some of these markets,
you might have 20,000 to $30,000 in a market.
So going,
getting there with a massive position,
it's not gonna be the case.
But,
you know,
again,
if you're looking for good profit opportunities,
sometimes you can find those in those smaller races.
So we'll go over
those as well and watch them as the vote comes in.
Watch that going up and down,
up and down and up and down,
taking advantage of those moves as much
as we can.
We're gonna take a break,
come back on the other side with more.
Go to predictableshw.com,
join us there.
Put in your Email address,
you get all sorts,
you get all the stuff that I just talked about.
We'll summarize all that in the kind of the show rundown.
You get the videos that you need.
You get the polling,
all that access
as well.
And then we will,
uh,
of course,
we would love to have you as well as part of our predictable
premium tier,
the Predictable posse,
as it will,
we're gonna be releasing all of our picks for tomorrow there first,
and we'll be discussing them over at predictableShow.com.
Join us
if you can.
We'll be back in a second.
Welcome back to Predictable with Stu.
8 states now have authority to ban or restrict
Calci.
According to In-game.
I kind of a quibble with the,
uh,
the framing of that and that like there have been some rulings,
uh,
where judges have said,
well,
you know what,
yeah,
you can enforce,
uh,
this particular
law or you can,
uh,
you have a,
uh,
a pass to,
to,
to restrict Calci for until this is decided fully.
We have seen that in a few states.
A lot of states are trying to do this.
I think at the end of the day,
they don't actually have this authority,
so I would quibble with the idea that they
now have the authority because they don't really,
but that,
you know,
again,
it takes time for these things
to wind through the court system.
The CFTC
quite clearly has,
uh,
has,
uh,
oversight of this particular arena,
but that's gonna take time,
uh,
to go through the courts.
Eventually we will get a situation.
I think this probably eventually goes to the Supreme Court,
honestly.
Uh,
and,
uh,
I think,
uh,
they will,
uh,
rule,
uh,
the correct way,
but who knows,
you know,
you never know with this stuff,
of course,
it's a,
it's a dangerous time if you're,
if you're one of these companies,
you're trying to,
uh,
operate in the space,
you know,
you never know what the future is.
And as we say over and over and over again,
it sucks when the government does this to companies,
you know,
when the government decides,
hey,
you know,
we're going to hold this over your head.
We talked to,
uh,
one of the co-founders of Predicted,
John,
uh,
the other day.
Um,
last week,
great episode,
by the way.
If you did not see it,
John Aristotle Phillips,
really cool guy,
uh,
a legend in this industry.
He's one of our Predictable Legends series.
Um,
but,
you know,
fought a
battle with the courts for years and years and years and years and years and years,
and more,
you know,
specifically the government
who kept trying to stop them from doing the things.
They gave them a free pass,
they built a business and then they just said one day just
kind of pulled the rug out from under them and said,
oh,
by the way,
no,
you,
no,
you can't.
Now,
eventually they won.
And John,
I thought was pretty upbeat about that whole process.
I'm more upbeat than I would be
about,
uh,
the way he has had to deal with the government,
but this happens
too often in our country.
It should not be the way this works.
You should not be,
uh,
you know,
we,
we have rules and regulations for a reason.
And we shouldn't be trying to constantly pull the rug
out from people when they're trying to build businesses.
It's just a terrible idea,
and,
uh,
you know,
I can't,
I can't say enough about how bad it's been.
Now,
luckily,
the CFTC currently in place,
Michael Selig,
we talked to him,
I think on like basically the first episode of the show,
uh,
back in the day,
uh,
is,
uh,
you know,
sees this as financial innovations that are doing good and create
real value for the,
for the country.
I agree with him on that,
uh,
sentiment
quite a bit.
Uh,
he is a,
um,
uh,
proponent for of these financial innovations and I think has been a good,
um,
steward is trying to make sure that the CFTC maintains their,
uh,
unique
and,
uh,
sole access to regulate these markets.
But in addition to that,
has been,
uh,
you know,
a very,
very,
uh,
you know,
a,
uh,
a person who says,
look,
we're gonna enforce the law here though,
right?
And if there's gonna be insider trading,
we're gonna hit,
we're gonna hit you on that.
We're gonna do these things and keep in line and
It's interesting to see this development as
uh the
um
uh from uh from the CFTC under Selig who has been,
you know,
I think,
friendly to,
uh,
this industry,
seeing it as a positive.
Uh,
this is a new thing that just came out.
This is from Gambling In insiders.
The CF CFTC warns prediction markets to stop sports book
style odds now.
It's interesting because,
you know,
if the point of this is,
and,
and I've made this point to you many,
many times.
You know,
is this gambling?
I would argue no.
Um,
I don't think it is.
It's a little more difficult to make that argument
when you're putting 220 next to the contract,
right?
And,
you know,
look,
most people look at this and a lot of people are coming over from
traditional sports gambling to prediction markets largely
because they get a better experience and
they don't get limited like these,
uh,
you know,
sports books do and,
and,
and things like that.
There's positives
to
doing the same types of activity you're doing in another arena over on
prediction markets cause it's a better experience for a lot of people.
Uh,
that being said,
uh,
you know,
it's,
it is a,
it's certainly a messaging,
it's difficult messaging.
Um,
people who are coming over from more traditional sports books,
that's how they are,
they,
it's how they look
at these particular things.
The,
it's how they translate it,
right?
I translated a totally different way.
When you go onto an app like,
for example,
Calci,
there are different choices.
You can go with trader mode,
I think it's prediction mode,
and there's a sports book mode,
at least there was.
I don't know if they've gotten rid of it already.
Uh,
where you can kind of look at the odds and,
and,
and see,
um,
you know,
you can see them however,
whatever format you want.
I like the percentages,
that's how I look at them mostly.
Some people like the cents,
like 42 cents.
I like 42%.
That's the most obvious way for me to understand it.
Some people though,
like,
you know,
plus 220% instead of that.
And,
uh,
you know,
if that's what the world you've been in for a long time,
I can understand why you'd like that.
CFTC is saying,
look,
You,
you know,
if you want to differentiate yourself from,
uh,
from,
uh,
sports betting,
you have to be able to take these steps,
and that's what,
uh,
they are warning these companies to do.
We'll see if that,
uh,
takes effect.
One of the things I wanted to bring up for you with prediction markets,
um,
they're taking center stage in latest round of quarterly earnings reports.
This is kind of an interesting thing because
we heard from Robin Hood.
Is Robin Hood went on here?
Robinhood now is making more money from prediction markets
than they are from traditional stock trading.
You know,
this is,
is,
it's an industry that is blowing up quickly,
uh,
you know,
and a lot of people who are looking at these things and just getting started
are interested because they're seeing all these headlines about it.
You know,
you're still really early,
but it is growing quickly.
Another one was DraftKings,
who has a prediction market as well,
where they,
they,
uh,
they operate,
I'm not sure if they operate it through
another source.
Some,
some places you go,
uh,
just in case you've,
you know,
if you see this,
you have
some prediction markets are their own
markets or their own exchanges.
Others are kind of just running them through like a
Calci or a polymarket.
They're using their infrastructure
and allowing you to go on their,
at their site to,
uh,
put in investments through,
uh,
these other,
uh,
these other sources.
Uh,
DraftKing platform growing faster than expected,
$11 billion in revenue,
up from $2.3 billion
from last quarter,
grew 106% on Coinbase.
Robinhood events contract revenue came in at $156 million.
This is growing really,
really fast,
and it's,
it's funny because now there's prediction markets on
the actual earnings calls.
Um.
Do we have the earnings call of,
uh,
what do we have here?
Uh,
Coinbase?
Oh,
no,
that's the,
I wanna play that clip in a second.
Give me the market though,
Adam,
if we could.
This is,
uh,
this one is,
uh,
hymns.
Here we go.
Uh,
what will hymns say
during their next earning call?
I assume one of the options is boing.
Um,
no,
if you scroll kind of scroll down a little bit,
uh,
you'll see,
uh,
the terms,
and then you can kind of follow on and listen to these.
Uh,
this is a site,
uh,
online pharmacy type of place.
They do sell,
uh,
you know,
um,
uh,
mail or not male enhancement,
I guess erectile dysfunction would be the right term.
Uh,
uh,
different,
you know,
treatments.
They have,
I think GLP ones are a big part of their business here now,
so you see words like peptide.
And,
uh,
testosterone,
eucalyptus is up there,
I guess they sell something with eucalyptus in it.
Uh,
we govi,
one of the GLP ones,
uh,
wearable,
meaning,
you know,
I guess that meaning the thing that you can kind of,
you know,
measure,
uh,
your heartbeat and sleep and all that other stuff,
lab testing,
longevity.
They have all these different terms.
Will they say that?
What is their focus?
What do they see as important in,
in,
in their business?
Business.
Do they see competition with Amazon
as a big thing?
If you think yes,
you can do very,
very well.
It's only at 16%.
Uh,
tariffs,
you know,
they're gonna talk about tariffs all,
that's only 8%.
And you can kind of pick these terms
if you know this business.
If you're the type of person who's maybe invested in this company,
maybe listened to their previous calls,
you can go back and look at their previous ones.
What do they talk about?
Research this out.
Uh,
this is something that some traders do really,
really,
really well on.
I'm mixed on this,
frankly,
when it comes to,
uh,
my performance on,
uh,
not mail-in performance.
I'm talking about performance when it comes to.
Sorry.
I,
I just did an episode of Stu and Dave Do America.
You have to forgive me.
Um,
I,
uh,
the,
uh,
the,
when it comes to performance on,
uh,
these mention markets,
I do all right.
Like I did well the last one I did,
which was a debate between two candidates I followed closely
in Michigan.
This one,
I don't know.
I don't,
I
don't have a lot of research.
I'd have to really go through and see,
uh,
what was going on to try to go through those.
But I will say one funny thing you may have missed from,
I think it was last year.
Uh,
Coinbase,
they had a mention market
about
which terms you could use,
they would use in their,
uh,
call,
and,
you know,
Brian Armstrong,
who's very,
you know,
he's on the forefront of financial innovation.
He's been a big,
uh,
crypto proponent and
he's interested in these prediction markets as well.
They added prediction markets to Coinbase.
So if you have a Coinbase account,
you're thinking like,
where do I sign up?
You can go right through Coinbase if you'd like to go through prediction markets,
but
Uh,
this was a,
this is one of his prediction,
this is one of his,
uh,
calls that there was a mention mark on an earnings call from Coinbase,
Brian Armstrong,
and this is how he ended the call,
uh,
last year.
Listen.
I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction
market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call,
and I just wanna.
You know,
add here the words Bitcoin,
Ethereum,
blockchain,
staking,
and web 3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.
So that is legitimately so
he did that intentionally
so he could check off all the mention marks right at the end.
Uh,
so,
hopefully you had yes
on all of those because,
uh,
frankly,
if you didn't have yes on them,
you probably didn't think that was as funny
as I just did.
OK,
uh,
I'm gonna take a break,
back in a second with more.
Well,
if you happen to miss it,
uh,
on I think we have Friday we did it.
Our album release party for Stu's Picks.
Yes,
I have picks.
Uh,
I have lots of positions in prediction markets,
as you might imagine.
More than I can talk about here,
uh,
frankly,
on the show.
And if you are a premium subscriber to our,
uh,
website,
predictableshow.com,
you get access to all of them.
Even the ones that are really small,
even the ones that are really stupid.
They're all there
and we kind of did it like an album release party,
kind of felt like a big thing where we,
we get posted it for everyone to see.
They could kind of go through it.
We,
we actually made,
uh,
fake covers of,
of the albums.
Uh,
they wound up going with this one for the first edition.
This is,
uh,
me as I think LL Cool J.
Look,
I look really cool.
Only 5.99 for that particular,
uh,
record,
uh,
Stu's picks.
And then you've got
this one,
the country,
uh,
version of Stu's picks.
Someone pointed out
that it might look a little Tallarico-ish here.
A little inauthentic country boy,
uh,
which is,
by the way,
true,
um,
I was born in New York,
but also,
uh,
hurtful,
uh,
frankly,
uh,
when you,
when you put me in the same breath as James Tallarico,
I'm not happy about it.
But if you wanna look at me as a real authentic tough guy,
I think it's this one.
this is,
uh,
me as a.
Glam metal guy.
Uh,
I guess,
uh,
Stu's picks,
uh,
by Stubergear available at predictableshow.com.
And there's a reason why we did make a big deal of this because we've done very,
very well so far and so far made
a lot of premium subscribers and free subscribers.
Uh,
we've been able to go on a fun journey together where we've done very,
very well throughout these
primaries.
We'd like to update you on the record as we have the update here today.
Our win rate by investment size.
We have 5 different investment sizes,
55 different investment sizes that we do,
kind of based on the confidence that I have.
In any
individual pick.
Uh,
our marker size position right now,
our smallest position,
kind of just kind of marked the market.
Basically,
I think of that one is
when I see a market,
I'm like,
oh,
that's interesting.
I'll put a very small,
like,
you know,
really small position.
It can be as low as a share
on a market.
Uh,
so far there,
we are 53 and 19 on the year,
73.6%
success rate.
When we go a little bit higher than that,
we call it a small position,
uh,
because this is like more like,
I have an idea here,
but I haven't done all the deep research on it.
I'll move it into the small.
Position,
not gonna hurt me badly or anything if I lose,
but,
you know,
I certainly like to win.
There we are,
48-10 on the year,
our 10th loss going into double digits
coming from
Corey freaking Bush.
Thanks a lot,
Corey.
82.8% success rate there.
On medium positions,
we are 53-1 on the year,
98.1%
success rate.
Uh,
we,
uh,
have done really,
really well,
and we get to medium confidence.
I do expect to basically win most or all of these,
uh,
and we did lose one.
You're probably asking what the one is,
and I have to go over the story every single time,
but
he's now our dearly,
dearly departed Lindsey Graham,
not winning by 20 points in his primary,
uh,
was the,
uh,
I think it was 20 points,
it might have been 30,
but it was anyway,
his sort of more blowout win in a race that he almost didn't have any competition.
I will note,
that's why I took that position.
Uh,
we did lose that 1,
53 and 1 there.
Our large positions,
we are 27-0 at 100%.
Again,
I don't know,
I can't remember the last time we lost a large position.
I don't intend to ever lose large positions.
And then all in positions when we're really,
really super duper sure,
6-0
at 100%.
We're over 92%,
I think,
total.
Uh,
you have to add that up.
I'm not gonna do the math for you.
This is a,
this is a nerdy math show.
Add it up,
check it out.
I don't know what it means,
but
I will tell you that those picks are there,
and that's one of the reasons why we've invested them or.
invested time
into building a,
a resource for you
to be able to see all these picks
as early as possible.
We have a subscriber-only chat.
They,
when we
first come out with uh new picks,
and we'll do this a lot during the next couple of days as we lead into these primaries.
Whenever I take a new position,
I'll put it in that chat.
Uh,
so all,
uh,
paid subscribers can see it first.
That's
basically a tier designed for,
you know,
more traders.
Look,
if you're a huge,
uh,
supporter,
maybe you've been a fan since the Glenn days and,
and just,
you know,
really,
really nice,
and we would love to have you on the,
on the premium tier as well,
even if you're not,
uh,
someone who's trading,
you do get this live stream.
Every day that we do kind of a behind the scenes,
we answer your questions every day
in a Q&A.
So,
that's cool too.
Uh,
lots of different reasons,
I think,
lots of great benefits,
great community,
um,
lots of cool stuff is available
as part of the premium tier.
But,
you know,
kind of the maybe central attraction are all of these picks.
And if you happen to be a trader,
I think it's well worth,
uh,
paying,
uh,
the,
the amount that it costs.
Frankly,
it's,
uh,
a lot of people have already said it's paid for,
for itself already in just the first week that we've had it.
Uh,
here is what the website looks like,
by the way,
when you look for the pics.
At the top of,
uh,
predictableShow.com,
you'll see a little tab that says
Stu's Pics.
It has my ridiculous LL Cool J picture
at the top of it.
But if you scroll down a little bit,
there's a bunch of stuff here explaining basically what
all this stuff means and then a little,
uh,
database.
Here of Stu's picks.
Now,
if you look at it here on the page,
you can,
um,
you can only see about 3 or 4 picks,
but if you kind of scroll over there,
Adam,
to the little box in the upper right-hand corner,
click on that,
it'll expand it to
a full screen,
and then you can go through
all the picks that I have,
you know,
stuff on movies,
stuff on Bitcoin,
stuff on,
uh,
you know,
elections,
Gillaine Maxwell,
I'm seeing scroll by.
There's Marsha Blackburn.
That one is closed now,
but that
pick had been up there for a while.
We had a large position on Marsha Blackburn to win that primary,
which she wound up doing.
And you see the pick actually right below that
is a large position on Michelle Tafoya
to win
her primary in Minnesota
tomorrow.
That's,
uh,
you know,
one of those things where,
uh,
we think that access to this
will be a really helpful tool for people who are trading.
There's about 214 positions,
I think was the last count.
Uh,
I have,
uh,
I,
I had,
uh,
there when we were posting it,
we update that big kind of
database
every single week,
and then,
uh,
the minute to minute updates you'll get in the subscriber-only chat just
because it would take too long to get them up there.
So I wanna make sure you get them as soon as you can.
Basically,
because,
you know,
especially in these lower,
um,
uh,
liquidity markets
when there's only 2000,
30,
40,000 in there.
You know,
when we go and we talk about these things,
they will move.
You know,
if you could buy it at 8,
you know,
you buy some of that 10 cents,
uh,
today,
uh,
you,
if you wait hours and hours and hours and hours,
you might still get it,
but you might get it at 15 or 20.
And we wanna make sure you get the highest profit possible.
So,
check out,
uh,
Stu's picks.
Uh,
it's unpredictableShow.com.
It's gonna be a premium tier
subscriber to get access to that,
we would I'd love you
to be part of the team and hopefully profit with us as we go forward to November.
There's so much coming tomorrow.
I wanna make sure you understand that tomorrow we will have
kind of like a quick,
uh,
secondary preview.
Anything breaking over the next 24 hours,
we'll get to
on a preview tomorrow,
uh,
during the day.
We'll outline whatever we can kind of come up with there,
and we will,
uh,
give you whatever,
uh,
selections that we have that we've noticed so far.
Then as we get into the night,
around the time the polls are closing,
I,
I'll put my sheet down here with all the pollsing,
uh,
closing times,
but
It's mostly 7:00 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. tomorrow.
There's not a lot of like crazy West Coast stuff that we have to wait up all night for.
So 7:00 p.m.,
8:00 p.m. Eastern,
uh,
closing times
will be on.
We'll be talking on Blaze TV and we'll be going on our own,
uh,
YouTube page and uh social media
as well as,
uh,
subscribe.
Suscriber only chat
at some point during the evening as well to kind of
go over the positions and watch those votes come in.
I can't tell you how many times people have been on these rides
where we've seen
things change,
things go out of whack in an election,
maybe you got a 90% favorite that winds up losing.
We try to catch those as they come,
as the vote comes in.
It's not always easy,
but we've been able to do it several times so far.
So if you wanna be part of that,
join us.
You can watch,
you know,
90% of that
for free at predictableShow.com
and into the evening
with our premium
subscribers.
That's all we have for,
for you today.
I want you,
uh,
to,
if you will,
Take a moment,
subscribe wherever you are.
Go to the YouTube page at predictable show.
If you're a podcast listener,
if you like listening audio only,
anywhere you get your podcast,
you can get us
predictable,
uh,
with Stu,
and we will see you
tomorrow for a one of the biggest primary
days of the year.
We'll see you then.