WEBVTT

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Welcome to Predictable with Sue and a new edition of Predictable Legends.

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We've got an incredible guest lined up for you,

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one of the originators of the entire prediction market industry.

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You don't want to miss this.

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Stay tuned.

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It all starts right now.

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.

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Thanks so much for joining us.

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We love when you join us as well at Predictableshow.com.

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Couple of things to tell you about before we get to our,

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our guest today.

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We have a copy of the predictable constitution that you can get

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right now if you are a subscriber or wanna be a subscriber to

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predictableShow.com.

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It's free.

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Just go there,

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put your email address in,

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we will mail you the predictable constitution,

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all the rules of the road that I trade by

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on a day to day basis.

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These are things that I've learned,

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very tough lessons.

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Many of those lessons I've learned unpredicted,

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uh,

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who we're gonna be talking about.

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Uh,

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here in just a second.

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Uh,

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so make sure you go there,

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go to,

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uh,

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go to predictableShow.com,

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put your email address in.

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If you'd like to be a premium subscriber,

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we're gonna be releasing all of my picks and a sort of

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record release party,

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an album release party tomorrow,

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uh,

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for all of the paid subscribers.

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If you wanna be one,

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we would love to have you.

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Just go there,

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check it out.

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Lots of great benefits,

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including a live stream of the program as we.

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Recorded every single day

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and a bunch of other stuff that I think you'll uh really enjoy.

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So check that out.

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Tomorrow,

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all the picks come out and you get to either,

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uh,

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join me on those picks,

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or you can just mock me

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for the terrible ones that I have,

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and there are

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just a few of those,

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of course.

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There's always a story,

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isn't there,

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when it comes to prediction markets.

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OK,

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let's not waste any more time.

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Let's get to

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today's episode of Predictable

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Legends.

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I'm so happy to welcome John Aristotle Phillips to the program.

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He is the co-founder and CEO of PredictI,

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a political prediction market

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that helped bring uh event forecasting into the mainstream.

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He is a longtime political entrepreneur,

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public policy innovator,

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and has spent decades in the prediction market world,

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long before he became a major part

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of the financial and political landscape.

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John,

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uh,

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it's an honor.

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Thanks so much for joining us on the program.

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Thank you,

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Stu.

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Good to be on.

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Uh,

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I want to,

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uh,

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start

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maybe going back a little bit before I predicted,

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if we could.

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My,

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uh,

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best story,

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uh,

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from,

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um,

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my academic career was the time that I had a,

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uh,

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French final exam

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and I calculated the exact amount of questions I

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needed to get right to pass the class,

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uh,

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and I did,

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uh,

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just barely,

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uh,

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and then I just left in the middle of the,

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the final.

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Your best story is a little better than that,

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because

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you're studying under a legend,

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Freeman Dyson,

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in college.

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And uh you are in the middle of a uh a conversation about nuclear weapons,

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and this story

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goes from your college career

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all the way to kind of altering

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the future of nuclear proliferation around the world.

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Can you

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kind of walk us through this is an incredible story.

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Thank you very much.

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That's,

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it's,

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I'm delighted you remember that.

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Um,

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not too many people do.

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That,

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it,

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it was,

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uh,

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I was a,

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a junior at Princeton,

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uh,

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and on academic probation,

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uh,

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perhaps not unlike you to.

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Uh,

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and,

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and,

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um,

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I was,

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I was in the physics department.

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And at,

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at Princeton,

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you have a,

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a

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junior thesis.

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The junior project,

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which takes a semester,

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we have 2 of those

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in the physics department,

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so in the fall and then then in the spring.

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And I chose for my

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Thesis project to try to design an atomic bomb.

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Now,

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my thesis advisor,

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Uh,

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was,

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was Freeman Dyson,

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who,

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as you say,

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was a legend.

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He was a,

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he was a mentor to me,

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but,

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um,

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just a,

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an amazing guy,

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and I won't try to encapsulate his brilliant career,

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but

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Freeman,

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uh,

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made it clear at the beginning when I asked him to be my thesis advisor

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that he could not give me any classified information of which he was privy.

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To.

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And so it was,

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uh,

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it was on my own.

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Um,

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and the objective was to do this from publicly available documents.

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And I,

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uh,

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spent the semester working on it and turned the paper in,

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and when I went back to pick it up

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at the physics department,

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uh,

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for work to get my grade,

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it was,

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I was told it had been classified.

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Uh,

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so,

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um,

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it was,

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uh,

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and it,

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and it got a lot of

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publicity.

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And as you point out,

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one of the good things to happen

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as a result of it was that,

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uh,

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I was a,

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uh,

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a,

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a sale of a plutonium reprocessing facility from France.

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To Pakistan,

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which was desirous.

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Pakistan wanted to get

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atomic bombs,

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um,

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at the time,

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and,

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and they got them eventually,

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unfortunately,

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but,

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um,

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the sale of the plutonium reprocessing

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facility was canceled by the French government

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as a result of a Pakistani operative being caught trying to buy the design

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from me.

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Uh,

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so

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it was a,

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it was an interesting

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segue

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from college to

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real life,

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I guess you'd call it.

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Um,

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for me anyway,

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it really is,

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and it's,

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it's such a fascinating story.

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I mean,

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that in and of itself is worthy of a book,

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right,

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not to mention what you went on to do,

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but I think it's,

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it's fascinating to look at that as sort of a seed

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to what you wound up doing in your life because I,

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I think there is,

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I mean,

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I think

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Freeman Dyson,

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you know,

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we,

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we've talked about him,

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he's a legend for a bunch of different things,

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but I think one of the reasons why I think he was so respected.

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Is he was always willing to ask difficult questions,

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to push back when everyone told him things were one way,

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he would

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oftentimes go the other and say,

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wait a minute,

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I wanna ask an uncomfortable question.

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And,

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you know,

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when you think about the world of prediction markets.

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You go through a period,

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especially after 9/11,

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where there's sort of a publicized interest in them by the government to say,

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hey,

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how can we figure out

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how to understand the world a little bit better?

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Prediction markets are floated and just destroyed by the media,

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destroyed by politicians.

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This would be the worst thing in the world.

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What are we doing?

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We're betting on terrorism and all these terrible things they accuse people of.

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There was a time where this was thought of as,

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um,

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you know,

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a,

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a,

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a scary world to enter,

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and at some level,

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I guess it it sure is to this day,

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but this was not something that,

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you know,

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people were inviting you to get involved in,

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that you were that was an immediately,

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uh,

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a thing that was embraced.

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How did you get the idea to even get into the world of prediction markets?

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So that,

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that's a great question,

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and I'll forgive me if it's,

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uh,

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it's a little bit of twists and turns.

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We were not,

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I,

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I'm the CEO of a company called Aristotle,

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which also happens to be my middle name and my little brother's

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and partner's middle name.

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Our parents were Greek.

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Uh,

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and,

294
00:06:58.739 --> 00:06:59.119
and

295
00:06:59.339 --> 00:07:00.290
Aristotle is a,

296
00:07:00.380 --> 00:07:02.179
is a political technology company.

297
00:07:02.260 --> 00:07:03.359
We're non-partisan.

298
00:07:03.820 --> 00:07:06.119
We supply software and voter

299
00:07:06.420 --> 00:07:07.260
data and,

300
00:07:07.640 --> 00:07:08.739
Other services,

301
00:07:09.079 --> 00:07:09.230
uh,

302
00:07:09.440 --> 00:07:10.160
online fundraising,

303
00:07:10.200 --> 00:07:10.630
for instance,

304
00:07:10.720 --> 00:07:12.600
to people who are running for public office or

305
00:07:12.600 --> 00:07:15.350
otherwise want to influence decisions at the ballot box.

306
00:07:15.760 --> 00:07:16.299
And so,

307
00:07:17.320 --> 00:07:17.760
Excuse me,

308
00:07:17.959 --> 00:07:18.239
sorry.

309
00:07:18.989 --> 00:07:19.070
No,

310
00:07:19.109 --> 00:07:19.549
it's OK.

311
00:07:19.980 --> 00:07:20.399
Um.

312
00:07:21.119 --> 00:07:21.359
We,

313
00:07:21.480 --> 00:07:21.739
we,

314
00:07:21.829 --> 00:07:22.200
um,

315
00:07:26.339 --> 00:07:27.899
Came up with the idea of predict it.

316
00:07:28.579 --> 00:07:28.829
Uh,

317
00:07:29.070 --> 00:07:30.570
because polling was broken,

318
00:07:30.750 --> 00:07:31.390
and,

319
00:07:31.429 --> 00:07:31.660
uh,

320
00:07:31.709 --> 00:07:33.369
it was harder and harder

321
00:07:33.750 --> 00:07:34.290
to,

322
00:07:34.670 --> 00:07:35.059
um,

323
00:07:35.149 --> 00:07:35.570
get,

324
00:07:35.989 --> 00:07:39.769
conduct accurate public opinion polls with the advent of cell phones and the like.

325
00:07:40.109 --> 00:07:40.269
Uh,

326
00:07:40.350 --> 00:07:40.670
and we,

327
00:07:40.750 --> 00:07:43.260
we had many of these pollsters as customers of ours,

328
00:07:43.309 --> 00:07:43.970
they would buy

329
00:07:44.429 --> 00:07:47.190
registered voter samples or primary voter samples from us.

330
00:07:47.700 --> 00:07:48.040
So,

331
00:07:48.140 --> 00:07:48.489
um,

332
00:07:48.579 --> 00:07:49.059
we were,

333
00:07:49.140 --> 00:07:49.339
we,

334
00:07:49.450 --> 00:07:49.799
we

335
00:07:50.000 --> 00:07:52.000
came up with the idea of

336
00:07:52.540 --> 00:07:52.920
trying

337
00:07:53.179 --> 00:07:55.380
to use a market to forecast future events.

338
00:07:55.450 --> 00:07:55.540
Now,

339
00:07:55.579 --> 00:07:57.640
we were not the first to come up with that idea.

340
00:07:57.739 --> 00:08:00.929
There have been some prediction markets before predicted was started.

341
00:08:01.420 --> 00:08:03.489
Predicted burst on the scene in 20

342
00:08:03.660 --> 00:08:05.070
in 2014,

343
00:08:05.380 --> 00:08:06.440
when we got permission

344
00:08:07.299 --> 00:08:08.799
from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission

345
00:08:09.179 --> 00:08:10.640
to open a prediction market.

346
00:08:11.019 --> 00:08:11.380
Uh,

347
00:08:11.390 --> 00:08:12.529
without being prosecuted

348
00:08:12.910 --> 00:08:14.269
by the federal government for running an,

349
00:08:14.350 --> 00:08:15.679
an illegal exchange.

350
00:08:15.989 --> 00:08:17.589
And we were not going to do it if it was not legal.

351
00:08:17.670 --> 00:08:18.230
We had many,

352
00:08:18.350 --> 00:08:18.549
many,

353
00:08:18.670 --> 00:08:21.700
many thousands of elected officials as customers and pollsters,

354
00:08:21.709 --> 00:08:22.339
as I said.

355
00:08:22.910 --> 00:08:23.329
So,

356
00:08:23.429 --> 00:08:23.679
um,

357
00:08:23.750 --> 00:08:25.630
there was intrade which came before us.

358
00:08:25.750 --> 00:08:27.989
There was the Iowa Electronic Markets,

359
00:08:28.070 --> 00:08:28.690
which was

360
00:08:29.029 --> 00:08:30.589
one of the original prediction markets,

361
00:08:30.670 --> 00:08:32.140
but markets have been used to

362
00:08:32.140 --> 00:08:35.349
forecast future events and political events specifically

363
00:08:35.630 --> 00:08:36.349
for a long,

364
00:08:36.469 --> 00:08:37.229
long time.

365
00:08:37.429 --> 00:08:37.710
In fact,

366
00:08:37.830 --> 00:08:38.270
I'm

367
00:08:38.429 --> 00:08:40.010
talking to you from Wall Street today.

368
00:08:40.549 --> 00:08:45.109
And not far from where I am sitting is the New York Stock Exchange.

369
00:08:45.508 --> 00:08:47.448
And on the steps of the New York Stock Exchange,

370
00:08:48.028 --> 00:08:48.189
uh,

371
00:08:48.229 --> 00:08:48.739
on the,

372
00:08:49.018 --> 00:08:50.299
on the eve of elections,

373
00:08:50.348 --> 00:08:51.109
you could take bets,

374
00:08:51.148 --> 00:08:52.328
you could place bets,

375
00:08:52.749 --> 00:08:53.119
uh,

376
00:08:53.468 --> 00:08:53.669
as,

377
00:08:53.749 --> 00:08:55.518
as long ago as 100 years ago

378
00:08:55.939 --> 00:08:57.249
on who would win the election.

379
00:08:57.549 --> 00:08:57.929
So,

380
00:08:58.068 --> 00:08:59.968
these markets are considered to be

381
00:09:00.309 --> 00:09:01.028
fairly accurate.

382
00:09:01.148 --> 00:09:02.888
They're not 100% accurate,

383
00:09:03.278 --> 00:09:03.508
uh,

384
00:09:03.588 --> 00:09:05.249
but they're considered to be fairly

385
00:09:05.448 --> 00:09:08.249
accurate forecasting mechanisms

386
00:09:08.388 --> 00:09:09.468
of future events.

387
00:09:09.960 --> 00:09:10.150
Uh,

388
00:09:10.250 --> 00:09:10.900
where people,

389
00:09:11.049 --> 00:09:12.450
and I can explain why that is,

390
00:09:12.559 --> 00:09:13.130
but I think your,

391
00:09:13.250 --> 00:09:14.390
your listeners

392
00:09:14.570 --> 00:09:15.710
already know why that is.

393
00:09:16.210 --> 00:09:16.330
Yeah,

394
00:09:16.450 --> 00:09:16.489
no,

395
00:09:16.570 --> 00:09:16.690
it's,

396
00:09:16.770 --> 00:09:17.049
it's,

397
00:09:17.130 --> 00:09:17.719
it's true,

398
00:09:17.770 --> 00:09:18.229
um,

399
00:09:18.650 --> 00:09:18.770
you know,

400
00:09:18.849 --> 00:09:19.000
it's,

401
00:09:19.049 --> 00:09:21.109
it's funny because this is obviously

402
00:09:21.330 --> 00:09:22.849
really important information to people,

403
00:09:23.049 --> 00:09:23.210
right?

404
00:09:23.330 --> 00:09:23.450
And,

405
00:09:23.559 --> 00:09:23.690
and,

406
00:09:23.880 --> 00:09:24.640
and it cuts through.

407
00:09:24.690 --> 00:09:24.770
I,

408
00:09:24.880 --> 00:09:25.080
I'm,

409
00:09:25.130 --> 00:09:26.609
I'm continually fascinated.

410
00:09:27.030 --> 00:09:28.549
At the ability for,

411
00:09:28.640 --> 00:09:29.940
of prediction markets

412
00:09:30.239 --> 00:09:35.229
to tell us things that everybody involved in the situation doesn't want us to know,

413
00:09:35.520 --> 00:09:35.679
right?

414
00:09:35.770 --> 00:09:36.140
Like,

415
00:09:36.359 --> 00:09:38.669
I listen to campaigns talk about their campaigns.

416
00:09:38.799 --> 00:09:41.000
They both say they're easily winning all the time.

417
00:09:41.270 --> 00:09:42.030
I listen to the,

418
00:09:42.109 --> 00:09:42.270
the,

419
00:09:42.390 --> 00:09:43.500
the mainstream media and,

420
00:09:43.549 --> 00:09:44.900
and they will often say,

421
00:09:45.150 --> 00:09:45.270
you know,

422
00:09:45.390 --> 00:09:45.539
look,

423
00:09:45.590 --> 00:09:46.390
this is a toss-up,

424
00:09:46.479 --> 00:09:47.729
who knows what's gonna happen?

425
00:09:47.989 --> 00:09:48.070
I,

426
00:09:48.109 --> 00:09:48.219
I,

427
00:09:48.309 --> 00:09:49.750
I will listen to even partisan media,

428
00:09:49.859 --> 00:09:50.349
some of which I,

429
00:09:50.429 --> 00:09:51.289
I really like,

430
00:09:51.510 --> 00:09:51.700
uh,

431
00:09:51.789 --> 00:09:51.950
but,

432
00:09:52.020 --> 00:09:52.150
you know,

433
00:09:52.270 --> 00:09:52.380
there's,

434
00:09:52.429 --> 00:09:53.619
there's rooting interest there.

435
00:09:53.739 --> 00:09:55.869
Everyone has the thing that they feel,

436
00:09:55.940 --> 00:09:56.210
but

437
00:09:56.510 --> 00:09:59.539
nobody does that when their own money is on the line,

438
00:09:59.869 --> 00:10:00.500
and you see,

439
00:10:00.590 --> 00:10:01.299
like the media is saying,

440
00:10:01.349 --> 00:10:01.460
oh,

441
00:10:01.469 --> 00:10:02.229
this is a toss-up,

442
00:10:02.270 --> 00:10:06.469
and you go to predict it and it's at 97% that one way is gonna happen.

443
00:10:06.989 --> 00:10:08.580
It's a way of cutting through,

444
00:10:09.200 --> 00:10:09.630
uh,

445
00:10:09.640 --> 00:10:12.119
and a real problem in our media and,

446
00:10:12.200 --> 00:10:12.900
and news,

447
00:10:12.919 --> 00:10:13.380
uh,

448
00:10:13.390 --> 00:10:13.799
diet,

449
00:10:13.880 --> 00:10:14.520
and I just,

450
00:10:14.760 --> 00:10:16.400
it's such an incredible innovation.

451
00:10:17.130 --> 00:10:20.580
Is that what you wanted to get to when you started this,

452
00:10:20.659 --> 00:10:22.260
or was it just something where you thought,

453
00:10:22.380 --> 00:10:22.500
hey,

454
00:10:22.539 --> 00:10:24.080
this will be valuable for my clients?

455
00:10:26.190 --> 00:10:29.270
I'd like to tell you that we foresaw how big this was gonna be.

456
00:10:29.390 --> 00:10:30.229
We did not,

457
00:10:30.789 --> 00:10:31.289
uh,

458
00:10:31.630 --> 00:10:31.830
we,

459
00:10:31.950 --> 00:10:32.289
we,

460
00:10:32.909 --> 00:10:35.590
you forgot one other thing that's appealing about these prediction markets.

461
00:10:35.669 --> 00:10:36.859
They're insanely fun.

462
00:10:37.210 --> 00:10:37.219
Yeah,

463
00:10:37.309 --> 00:10:37.320
yes,

464
00:10:37.590 --> 00:10:37.859
I mean,

465
00:10:38.070 --> 00:10:38.190
you,

466
00:10:38.309 --> 00:10:38.500
you,

467
00:10:38.590 --> 00:10:38.789
you know,

468
00:10:38.909 --> 00:10:39.070
I mean,

469
00:10:39.109 --> 00:10:40.289
you're a predictive trader,

470
00:10:40.630 --> 00:10:41.049
um,

471
00:10:41.349 --> 00:10:43.770
that once you get a little skin in the game,

472
00:10:44.270 --> 00:10:46.169
whether it's a sports bet or a

473
00:10:46.390 --> 00:10:47.190
political bet,

474
00:10:47.590 --> 00:10:47.869
uh,

475
00:10:47.989 --> 00:10:48.270
it's,

476
00:10:48.349 --> 00:10:48.469
you,

477
00:10:48.549 --> 00:10:49.520
you start to focus.

478
00:10:49.590 --> 00:10:50.590
It clears your head.

479
00:10:50.650 --> 00:10:52.830
It's this miraculous thing that happens that you don't.

480
00:10:53.419 --> 00:10:54.000
You don't

481
00:10:54.299 --> 00:10:55.799
put as much emphasis,

482
00:10:56.179 --> 00:10:57.020
or at least you try to,

483
00:10:57.099 --> 00:10:59.719
you're better able to control what you want to have happen.

484
00:11:01.419 --> 00:11:01.799
From,

485
00:11:02.059 --> 00:11:04.340
separate that from what you think is gonna happen.

486
00:11:04.419 --> 00:11:07.280
And the part that uses the brain rather than the heart

487
00:11:07.859 --> 00:11:11.919
starts to be more powerful in terms of how you analyze

488
00:11:12.299 --> 00:11:13.000
an election,

489
00:11:13.380 --> 00:11:14.419
a sporting event,

490
00:11:14.690 --> 00:11:16.780
any kind of activity of human endeavor.

491
00:11:16.859 --> 00:11:17.059
So,

492
00:11:17.099 --> 00:11:17.260
yeah,

493
00:11:17.340 --> 00:11:17.679
I mean,

494
00:11:17.969 --> 00:11:18.140
we,

495
00:11:18.260 --> 00:11:18.580
we,

496
00:11:18.739 --> 00:11:19.030
we,

497
00:11:19.179 --> 00:11:19.500
we,

498
00:11:19.619 --> 00:11:22.820
we started this because we were looking for a solution to a discrete problem,

499
00:11:22.890 --> 00:11:24.500
as often happens with innovation.

500
00:11:25.270 --> 00:11:26.090
An invention.

501
00:11:26.580 --> 00:11:29.169
We were looking for a solution to a discrete problem,

502
00:11:29.340 --> 00:11:29.869
which is,

503
00:11:30.849 --> 00:11:32.989
Polling is not really working as well anymore.

504
00:11:33.450 --> 00:11:33.650
Uh,

505
00:11:33.770 --> 00:11:34.429
polling is good,

506
00:11:34.479 --> 00:11:35.150
by the way,

507
00:11:35.609 --> 00:11:36.039
and I,

508
00:11:36.049 --> 00:11:38.789
I take my hat off to my pollster friends

509
00:11:38.929 --> 00:11:39.530
and customers.

510
00:11:39.599 --> 00:11:40.880
The polling is great if you want an

511
00:11:41.049 --> 00:11:42.510
in-depth deep dive

512
00:11:42.929 --> 00:11:43.909
to understand

513
00:11:44.369 --> 00:11:45.429
why people

514
00:11:45.650 --> 00:11:47.390
feel the way they do about something.

515
00:11:47.919 --> 00:11:48.049
Uh,

516
00:11:48.090 --> 00:11:48.280
it's,

517
00:11:48.330 --> 00:11:48.549
it's,

518
00:11:48.609 --> 00:11:49.270
it's great for that.

519
00:11:49.359 --> 00:11:50.869
Prediction markets don't tell you why.

520
00:11:51.820 --> 00:11:53.219
Prediction markets will tell you,

521
00:11:53.510 --> 00:11:54.419
answer a different question,

522
00:11:54.469 --> 00:11:55.929
which is what is gonna happen,

523
00:11:56.030 --> 00:11:57.650
not why people feel this way,

524
00:11:57.950 --> 00:11:59.549
but what are people likely to do.

525
00:11:59.869 --> 00:12:02.130
And prediction markets are great for that.

526
00:12:02.349 --> 00:12:02.659
And again,

527
00:12:02.710 --> 00:12:03.950
I emphasize they're not perfect,

528
00:12:04.070 --> 00:12:04.309
right?

529
00:12:04.590 --> 00:12:04.750
There,

530
00:12:04.919 --> 00:12:05.070
there,

531
00:12:05.150 --> 00:12:05.789
there are,

532
00:12:06.190 --> 00:12:06.340
but,

533
00:12:06.390 --> 00:12:06.969
but when

534
00:12:07.190 --> 00:12:07.719
something,

535
00:12:08.780 --> 00:12:09.719
When the odds are

536
00:12:10.039 --> 00:12:10.820
20%,

537
00:12:10.979 --> 00:12:12.929
only 20% that something's gonna happen,

538
00:12:13.059 --> 00:12:14.820
that means that 20% of the time,

539
00:12:14.940 --> 00:12:16.520
that thing is gonna happen.

540
00:12:17.140 --> 00:12:17.520
So,

541
00:12:17.859 --> 00:12:20.340
these markets assigned are great,

542
00:12:20.419 --> 00:12:21.419
they're brilliant

543
00:12:21.700 --> 00:12:24.859
at distilling billions of pieces of information.

544
00:12:25.950 --> 00:12:26.530
Into

545
00:12:27.270 --> 00:12:28.119
prices.

546
00:12:28.969 --> 00:12:31.429
Which is distilled in effect into odds,

547
00:12:31.809 --> 00:12:33.409
and they do that instantaneously,

548
00:12:33.530 --> 00:12:35.049
they do that 24/7,

549
00:12:35.299 --> 00:12:35.710
and

550
00:12:35.969 --> 00:12:36.830
the markets

551
00:12:37.130 --> 00:12:37.520
are,

552
00:12:37.530 --> 00:12:37.929
uh,

553
00:12:38.010 --> 00:12:40.869
are pretty prescient when it comes to future events.

554
00:12:41.130 --> 00:12:42.929
I wanted to get back to your comment about Dyson.

555
00:12:42.969 --> 00:12:43.909
I could not agree more.

556
00:12:44.450 --> 00:12:44.599
I mean,

557
00:12:44.640 --> 00:12:45.520
he was a guy that,

558
00:12:45.890 --> 00:12:47.270
that asked questions.

559
00:12:47.640 --> 00:12:47.849
Um,

560
00:12:47.929 --> 00:12:49.599
I'm thrilled that you know about Dyson,

561
00:12:49.679 --> 00:12:52.710
but Freeman Dyson was somebody who asked uncomfortable questions and,

562
00:12:53.020 --> 00:12:53.320
and,

563
00:12:53.330 --> 00:12:53.750
uh,

564
00:12:54.500 --> 00:12:55.690
really was,

565
00:12:55.729 --> 00:12:56.190
uh,

566
00:12:56.549 --> 00:12:59.229
An amazing influence on my life and on the lives of many people,

567
00:12:59.309 --> 00:12:59.719
I think

568
00:13:00.030 --> 00:13:02.710
an important figure to science overall and the country,

569
00:13:02.789 --> 00:13:03.119
I think,

570
00:13:03.229 --> 00:13:03.419
uh,

571
00:13:03.510 --> 00:13:04.020
as well.

572
00:13:04.150 --> 00:13:04.359
Uh,

573
00:13:04.469 --> 00:13:04.909
so yes,

574
00:13:04.989 --> 00:13:05.320
I,

575
00:13:05.590 --> 00:13:05.710
I,

576
00:13:05.789 --> 00:13:08.070
I didn't know that part of the story until I started researching it.

577
00:13:08.150 --> 00:13:08.619
I'd heard the,

578
00:13:08.630 --> 00:13:08.640
uh,

579
00:13:08.710 --> 00:13:09.669
the part of,

580
00:13:09.750 --> 00:13:10.630
of your initial essay,

581
00:13:10.719 --> 00:13:11.190
but I did not,

582
00:13:11.270 --> 00:13:12.700
I did not tie it to Dyson until,

583
00:13:12.849 --> 00:13:13.229
until recently.

584
00:13:13.309 --> 00:13:13.979
I couldn't believe that,

585
00:13:13.989 --> 00:13:14.289
that

586
00:13:14.429 --> 00:13:15.320
it makes so much sense.

587
00:13:15.390 --> 00:13:15.669
It really,

588
00:13:15.770 --> 00:13:16.369
it really does.

589
00:13:16.789 --> 00:13:16.979
Uh,

590
00:13:17.229 --> 00:13:18.169
so such a cool guy.

591
00:13:18.270 --> 00:13:18.510
Yeah,

592
00:13:18.619 --> 00:13:19.190
that's so cool.

593
00:13:19.270 --> 00:13:19.440
Um,

594
00:13:19.510 --> 00:13:20.940
and one other clarification for you,

595
00:13:21.020 --> 00:13:21.179
John,

596
00:13:21.270 --> 00:13:21.309
uh,

597
00:13:21.390 --> 00:13:21.710
I am not.

598
00:13:21.844 --> 00:13:22.955
A predicted market trader.

599
00:13:23.174 --> 00:13:24.734
I am a level 7 oracle.

600
00:13:24.905 --> 00:13:25.094
OK,

601
00:13:25.174 --> 00:13:25.965
I don't wanna brag about it.

602
00:13:27.414 --> 00:13:27.695
I mean,

603
00:13:27.775 --> 00:13:27.974
uh,

604
00:13:28.534 --> 00:13:29.695
I'm not just some trader.

605
00:13:29.815 --> 00:13:31.755
I'm a level 7 oracle.

606
00:13:31.854 --> 00:13:33.474
I'm putting it on my business cards.

607
00:13:33.734 --> 00:13:33.854
Uh,

608
00:13:34.015 --> 00:13:34.174
John,

609
00:13:34.215 --> 00:13:35.135
I wanna take a quick,

610
00:13:35.215 --> 00:13:35.494
uh,

611
00:13:35.575 --> 00:13:36.155
a quick break.

612
00:13:36.215 --> 00:13:38.075
We're gonna come back on the other side because I wanna talk about.

613
00:13:38.750 --> 00:13:39.090
Uh,

614
00:13:39.190 --> 00:13:40.570
how we got from

615
00:13:40.830 --> 00:13:41.820
you starting this and,

616
00:13:41.869 --> 00:13:43.890
and how it was allowed initially

617
00:13:44.109 --> 00:13:45.210
and then your battles,

618
00:13:45.260 --> 00:13:45.809
uh,

619
00:13:46.030 --> 00:13:46.409
with

620
00:13:46.809 --> 00:13:47.469
DC

621
00:13:48.030 --> 00:13:49.789
because those are sort of legendary.

622
00:13:49.869 --> 00:13:52.150
I think you guys were treated incredibly unfairly.

623
00:13:52.229 --> 00:13:54.280
I was ranting about it on the air back in the day.

624
00:13:54.510 --> 00:13:54.659
Uh,

625
00:13:54.710 --> 00:13:55.760
I wanna go through that,

626
00:13:55.789 --> 00:13:55.799
uh,

627
00:13:55.869 --> 00:13:56.729
history as well

628
00:13:56.869 --> 00:14:00.030
and maybe some markets that you're looking at right now that people can jump on,

629
00:14:00.150 --> 00:14:00.630
predict it.

630
00:14:00.909 --> 00:14:01.070
Uh,

631
00:14:01.150 --> 00:14:02.119
thanks so much for joining us.

632
00:14:02.210 --> 00:14:03.419
It's Predictable Legends.

633
00:14:03.469 --> 00:14:04.950
We have more with John in just a second.

634
00:14:25.059 --> 00:14:27.169
We're back with John Aristotle Phillips,

635
00:14:27.330 --> 00:14:30.169
co-founder and CEO of the Prediction Market.

636
00:14:30.340 --> 00:14:31.330
Predict it.

637
00:14:31.530 --> 00:14:31.880
Uh,

638
00:14:32.010 --> 00:14:32.210
John,

639
00:14:32.289 --> 00:14:32.630
I was,

640
00:14:32.640 --> 00:14:32.840
uh,

641
00:14:32.849 --> 00:14:33.630
in Washington,

642
00:14:33.880 --> 00:14:34.080
uh,

643
00:14:34.090 --> 00:14:34.510
recently.

644
00:14:34.609 --> 00:14:34.960
We're just,

645
00:14:34.969 --> 00:14:35.119
uh,

646
00:14:35.130 --> 00:14:36.400
getting the show started,

647
00:14:36.700 --> 00:14:38.210
and I'm walking through DC

648
00:14:38.369 --> 00:14:38.760
and,

649
00:14:38.770 --> 00:14:39.010
um,

650
00:14:39.049 --> 00:14:42.010
we're going on to record an interview with the CFTC chair,

651
00:14:42.090 --> 00:14:42.690
Michael Selig.

652
00:14:43.169 --> 00:14:43.489
Um,

653
00:14:43.609 --> 00:14:46.450
and I'm on my way to the studio where we're recording this,

654
00:14:46.520 --> 00:14:46.799
and I,

655
00:14:47.130 --> 00:14:48.489
we walked by all the big buildings,

656
00:14:48.530 --> 00:14:48.770
you know,

657
00:14:48.880 --> 00:14:49.849
all the ones that you recognize,

658
00:14:49.929 --> 00:14:51.390
the Supreme Court's there and everything else.

659
00:14:51.849 --> 00:14:52.909
And I turn over to the right,

660
00:14:52.969 --> 00:14:53.729
and there seems,

661
00:14:53.849 --> 00:14:55.289
there's a big sign for predicted,

662
00:14:55.369 --> 00:14:56.869
the predicted headquarters,

663
00:14:57.130 --> 00:14:57.359
uh,

664
00:14:57.409 --> 00:14:59.880
right there in the middle of DC and frankly,

665
00:14:59.890 --> 00:15:02.270
it seems like you guys needed a headquarters there

666
00:15:02.729 --> 00:15:03.190
because

667
00:15:03.469 --> 00:15:03.729
it,

668
00:15:03.890 --> 00:15:04.010
it,

669
00:15:04.090 --> 00:15:04.570
there have,

670
00:15:04.729 --> 00:15:06.190
there's been a back and forth

671
00:15:06.409 --> 00:15:09.010
with prediction markets overall and predicted,

672
00:15:09.049 --> 00:15:09.289
I think,

673
00:15:09.330 --> 00:15:10.869
was played a huge role

674
00:15:11.369 --> 00:15:12.609
in where we are today.

675
00:15:13.109 --> 00:15:14.659
Can you go back to 2014,

676
00:15:15.190 --> 00:15:17.390
cause you guys are not set up necessarily like

677
00:15:17.390 --> 00:15:19.229
some of the other prediction markets we know today.

678
00:15:19.309 --> 00:15:20.770
You came into existence

679
00:15:20.960 --> 00:15:22.150
through an academic license,

680
00:15:22.270 --> 00:15:22.599
correct?

681
00:15:23.599 --> 00:15:24.000
That's correct.

682
00:15:24.080 --> 00:15:24.169
Well,

683
00:15:24.200 --> 00:15:24.460
it was a,

684
00:15:24.539 --> 00:15:25.140
it was a

685
00:15:25.520 --> 00:15:27.479
permission from the Commodities Futures Trading

686
00:15:27.479 --> 00:15:28.869
Commission called a no action letter.

687
00:15:29.239 --> 00:15:30.020
They issued,

688
00:15:30.400 --> 00:15:30.919
in those days,

689
00:15:31.000 --> 00:15:31.659
they issued

690
00:15:32.039 --> 00:15:34.190
thousands of no-action letters to businesses saying,

691
00:15:34.280 --> 00:15:34.400
look,

692
00:15:34.469 --> 00:15:34.820
if we

693
00:15:35.200 --> 00:15:37.619
organize our affairs or do this in such a way,

694
00:15:38.200 --> 00:15:39.960
are we gonna be in compliance with the law?

695
00:15:40.280 --> 00:15:40.840
And then the,

696
00:15:40.960 --> 00:15:41.299
the,

697
00:15:41.489 --> 00:15:41.719
the,

698
00:15:41.760 --> 00:15:42.239
in this case,

699
00:15:42.320 --> 00:15:43.780
the Commodities Futures Trading Commission

700
00:15:44.039 --> 00:15:44.789
sent us a,

701
00:15:45.099 --> 00:15:45.989
a letter saying,

702
00:15:46.159 --> 00:15:48.390
if you operate the prediction market in this way,

703
00:15:48.599 --> 00:15:49.539
which includes

704
00:15:49.719 --> 00:15:50.640
participation.

705
00:15:51.489 --> 00:15:51.750
From,

706
00:15:51.929 --> 00:15:52.239
uh,

707
00:15:52.250 --> 00:15:53.179
universities,

708
00:15:53.530 --> 00:15:53.710
uh,

709
00:15:53.719 --> 00:15:54.690
who are studying the,

710
00:15:54.770 --> 00:15:57.030
the impact of markets and,

711
00:15:57.080 --> 00:15:59.669
and all the interesting things that prediction markets,

712
00:16:00.099 --> 00:16:00.510
um,

713
00:16:01.130 --> 00:16:01.849
carry with them,

714
00:16:02.169 --> 00:16:02.440
um,

715
00:16:02.570 --> 00:16:02.770
then,

716
00:16:02.890 --> 00:16:04.349
then you'll be doing it legally.

717
00:16:04.690 --> 00:16:06.219
So we got a permission from the,

718
00:16:06.309 --> 00:16:07.229
from the regulator

719
00:16:07.489 --> 00:16:08.289
in 2014.

720
00:16:08.400 --> 00:16:09.150
We opened

721
00:16:09.409 --> 00:16:11.729
predicted in 2014 right before the election.

722
00:16:12.729 --> 00:16:12.890
Uh,

723
00:16:12.969 --> 00:16:13.369
it was,

724
00:16:13.409 --> 00:16:13.750
uh,

725
00:16:14.020 --> 00:16:14.739
a midterm,

726
00:16:15.090 --> 00:16:15.890
and it was,

727
00:16:15.929 --> 00:16:16.250
uh,

728
00:16:16.489 --> 00:16:16.809
it was,

729
00:16:16.890 --> 00:16:18.010
it was slow at first,

730
00:16:18.130 --> 00:16:18.489
people were,

731
00:16:18.570 --> 00:16:19.690
it was word of mouth,

732
00:16:19.890 --> 00:16:21.409
but then people started to find out,

733
00:16:21.570 --> 00:16:24.630
hear about this site where you could actually bet on politics,

734
00:16:24.969 --> 00:16:26.309
and it just took off.

735
00:16:26.929 --> 00:16:27.250
Um,

736
00:16:27.380 --> 00:16:27.440
and,

737
00:16:27.549 --> 00:16:28.010
and it was,

738
00:16:28.080 --> 00:16:28.750
it was,

739
00:16:28.969 --> 00:16:29.270
uh,

740
00:16:29.570 --> 00:16:31.450
it's been a fantastic ride.

741
00:16:31.729 --> 00:16:31.929
Uh,

742
00:16:32.010 --> 00:16:32.289
and,

743
00:16:32.409 --> 00:16:33.049
and in fact,

744
00:16:33.090 --> 00:16:33.250
it,

745
00:16:33.330 --> 00:16:34.590
it grew so quickly

746
00:16:35.330 --> 00:16:36.469
that some of the,

747
00:16:36.809 --> 00:16:37.450
unfortunately,

748
00:16:37.570 --> 00:16:39.450
some of the regulators who had approved it,

749
00:16:40.210 --> 00:16:41.270
Had second thoughts

750
00:16:41.500 --> 00:16:44.880
and decided that they didn't like the idea of having prediction markets,

751
00:16:45.219 --> 00:16:45.500
um,

752
00:16:45.580 --> 00:16:47.059
even though there were no scandals,

753
00:16:47.140 --> 00:16:48.099
there was no problem,

754
00:16:48.219 --> 00:16:48.859
people were,

755
00:16:49.219 --> 00:16:49.500
were,

756
00:16:49.659 --> 00:16:50.859
were taking to it,

757
00:16:50.979 --> 00:16:55.000
and the markets were proving to be incredibly accurate in terms of forecasting

758
00:16:55.260 --> 00:16:55.989
these events.

759
00:16:56.340 --> 00:16:56.500
Uh,

760
00:16:56.619 --> 00:16:57.590
so the commodities,

761
00:16:57.700 --> 00:16:57.849
the,

762
00:16:57.940 --> 00:16:58.140
the,

763
00:16:58.190 --> 00:17:01.219
the regulator decided to try to withdraw the no action letter.

764
00:17:01.659 --> 00:17:03.340
We sued the regulator,

765
00:17:03.580 --> 00:17:05.170
saying you can't just withdraw.

766
00:17:05.550 --> 00:17:06.189
The permission,

767
00:17:06.229 --> 00:17:07.670
you have to have a reason for doing it.

768
00:17:07.699 --> 00:17:08.729
It can't be just that

769
00:17:09.180 --> 00:17:11.130
you guys are too big for your britches or

770
00:17:11.310 --> 00:17:12.069
you grew too fast.

771
00:17:12.108 --> 00:17:14.170
You have to have a logical reason why

772
00:17:14.670 --> 00:17:17.050
you want to stop people from using their own money

773
00:17:17.339 --> 00:17:18.630
to engage in this activity,

774
00:17:18.670 --> 00:17:20.910
which has all this academic and political benefit.

775
00:17:21.729 --> 00:17:22.390
We won.

776
00:17:23.089 --> 00:17:25.270
We took it to the Court of Appeals

777
00:17:25.890 --> 00:17:26.949
in the 5th Circuit,

778
00:17:27.290 --> 00:17:28.069
and we won.

779
00:17:28.530 --> 00:17:30.550
And the judges said that the command,

780
00:17:30.609 --> 00:17:34.050
that the regulator had acted in an arbitrary and capricious fashion,

781
00:17:34.569 --> 00:17:34.709
uh,

782
00:17:34.729 --> 00:17:36.760
that we had a license to operate.

783
00:17:37.229 --> 00:17:41.000
And so we were able to um continue and not just continue,

784
00:17:41.010 --> 00:17:42.160
but also to grow it.

785
00:17:42.569 --> 00:17:42.979
So,

786
00:17:43.209 --> 00:17:43.729
that's the,

787
00:17:43.800 --> 00:17:45.130
that's the regulatory history.

788
00:17:45.209 --> 00:17:45.359
Now,

789
00:17:45.449 --> 00:17:50.170
it did lay the groundwork for other prediction markets which also went to the CFTC.

790
00:17:50.660 --> 00:17:50.819
Uh,

791
00:17:50.900 --> 00:17:51.750
and have since

792
00:17:52.020 --> 00:17:53.060
grown very quickly.

793
00:17:53.420 --> 00:17:53.699
Uh,

794
00:17:53.780 --> 00:17:54.050
and,

795
00:17:54.180 --> 00:17:55.459
and they are also,

796
00:17:55.540 --> 00:17:55.849
um,

797
00:17:56.020 --> 00:17:56.180
you know,

798
00:17:56.290 --> 00:17:57.920
they're embroiled in different types of

799
00:17:58.189 --> 00:17:59.400
legal fights because they

800
00:17:59.900 --> 00:18:00.439
are

801
00:18:01.199 --> 00:18:02.560
doing sports betting and the like,

802
00:18:02.619 --> 00:18:04.280
which is in conflict with some of the

803
00:18:04.619 --> 00:18:06.199
states which want to regulate

804
00:18:06.800 --> 00:18:07.680
sports betting,

805
00:18:08.000 --> 00:18:08.329
um,

806
00:18:08.420 --> 00:18:09.680
as opposed to the federal government,

807
00:18:09.979 --> 00:18:12.619
which also wants to regulate sports betting through the CFTC.

808
00:18:12.739 --> 00:18:13.040
So,

809
00:18:13.180 --> 00:18:14.949
that's not a fight that we're involved in.

810
00:18:15.219 --> 00:18:15.569
Um,

811
00:18:15.699 --> 00:18:16.619
we are,

812
00:18:16.780 --> 00:18:18.640
we are focused on political,

813
00:18:19.089 --> 00:18:19.609
Predictions,

814
00:18:19.810 --> 00:18:21.489
political event contracts,

815
00:18:21.770 --> 00:18:23.089
and that's really where we excel.

816
00:18:23.780 --> 00:18:23.939
Yeah,

817
00:18:24.020 --> 00:18:24.069
I,

818
00:18:24.140 --> 00:18:24.219
I,

819
00:18:24.300 --> 00:18:24.380
I,

820
00:18:24.459 --> 00:18:25.959
I don't wanna pass by this,

821
00:18:26.060 --> 00:18:26.310
uh,

822
00:18:26.319 --> 00:18:27.020
too quickly here,

823
00:18:27.140 --> 00:18:27.339
John,

824
00:18:27.500 --> 00:18:28.300
because

825
00:18:28.500 --> 00:18:32.729
I wanna just stop and focus on how bonkers this was for this to happen to you guys.

826
00:18:33.099 --> 00:18:33.260
You,

827
00:18:33.349 --> 00:18:37.219
you ran an organization the exact way the government told you to run it,

828
00:18:37.339 --> 00:18:37.540
right?

829
00:18:37.699 --> 00:18:37.939
You,

830
00:18:38.099 --> 00:18:39.099
you said it all out.

831
00:18:39.219 --> 00:18:41.880
They said we won't do anything if you run it this way.

832
00:18:42.020 --> 00:18:43.380
You did this for multiple years.

833
00:18:43.459 --> 00:18:45.239
You built a very important part

834
00:18:45.609 --> 00:18:47.170
of our news and information culture,

835
00:18:47.369 --> 00:18:48.520
the thing that was important to me,

836
00:18:48.540 --> 00:18:48.689
uh,

837
00:18:48.699 --> 00:18:49.400
as a trader.

838
00:18:50.130 --> 00:18:51.069
And all of a sudden,

839
00:18:51.170 --> 00:18:52.609
for literally no reason,

840
00:18:52.689 --> 00:18:52.930
and I,

841
00:18:52.989 --> 00:18:53.609
if I remember right,

842
00:18:53.680 --> 00:18:53.849
John,

843
00:18:53.969 --> 00:18:54.790
no explanation.

844
00:18:55.569 --> 00:18:56.050
They just said,

845
00:18:56.140 --> 00:18:56.719
by the way,

846
00:18:56.890 --> 00:18:58.839
you no longer can operate this way.

847
00:18:59.089 --> 00:18:59.290
I mean,

848
00:18:59.329 --> 00:18:59.810
that is,

849
00:18:59.930 --> 00:19:00.160
uh,

850
00:19:00.489 --> 00:19:02.489
if they did that to another business,

851
00:19:02.530 --> 00:19:04.550
I think it would be on the front page of every newspaper.

852
00:19:04.810 --> 00:19:05.750
It was covered a little bit,

853
00:19:05.810 --> 00:19:06.729
but I don't think enough.

854
00:19:06.829 --> 00:19:06.959
Uh,

855
00:19:07.050 --> 00:19:08.130
that should not happen.

856
00:19:08.209 --> 00:19:10.280
The government should not be doing that to any business,

857
00:19:10.530 --> 00:19:11.569
prediction market or not.

858
00:19:12.579 --> 00:19:12.739
No,

859
00:19:12.819 --> 00:19:13.079
I mean,

860
00:19:13.219 --> 00:19:13.380
uh,

861
00:19:13.579 --> 00:19:13.900
but the,

862
00:19:14.020 --> 00:19:16.180
the high point of the court case was when one of the

863
00:19:16.180 --> 00:19:19.260
judges and the three-judge panel at the Court of Appeals leaned over the

864
00:19:19.500 --> 00:19:20.300
podium and talked,

865
00:19:20.380 --> 00:19:21.199
looked at the government

866
00:19:21.699 --> 00:19:22.439
lawyer and said,

867
00:19:22.699 --> 00:19:24.680
you think you have a license to bully?

868
00:19:25.949 --> 00:19:26.229
And,

869
00:19:26.310 --> 00:19:26.510
and,

870
00:19:26.599 --> 00:19:27.829
and the fact of the matter is,

871
00:19:27.910 --> 00:19:28.469
this is,

872
00:19:28.589 --> 00:19:28.790
you know,

873
00:19:28.949 --> 00:19:29.060
so,

874
00:19:29.109 --> 00:19:29.430
but the,

875
00:19:29.520 --> 00:19:30.060
you know what,

876
00:19:30.349 --> 00:19:31.369
the system worked,

877
00:19:31.859 --> 00:19:32.140
uh,

878
00:19:32.189 --> 00:19:32.630
it was,

879
00:19:32.750 --> 00:19:32.910
yes,

880
00:19:33.030 --> 00:19:33.739
it was unfair,

881
00:19:33.790 --> 00:19:34.589
it was unjustified,

882
00:19:34.670 --> 00:19:36.390
it was a definite speed bump

883
00:19:36.790 --> 00:19:37.369
for us,

884
00:19:37.699 --> 00:19:38.609
cost a lot of money,

885
00:19:38.709 --> 00:19:39.109
we won.

886
00:19:40.040 --> 00:19:40.869
And that,

887
00:19:41.000 --> 00:19:42.239
and it's not just we want,

888
00:19:42.280 --> 00:19:45.160
it's the people who participate in prediction markets and prediction market,

889
00:19:45.229 --> 00:19:46.619
and I think democracy

890
00:19:46.910 --> 00:19:47.910
is better for it.

891
00:19:48.319 --> 00:19:48.800
One of the,

892
00:19:48.880 --> 00:19:50.130
one of the criticisms that,

893
00:19:50.199 --> 00:19:50.349
you know,

894
00:19:50.400 --> 00:19:52.229
the government never did provide any reasons,

895
00:19:52.280 --> 00:19:53.040
which is why they're,

896
00:19:53.880 --> 00:19:55.099
Case got thrown out.

897
00:19:55.680 --> 00:19:56.140
Um,

898
00:19:56.520 --> 00:19:57.280
but the,

899
00:19:57.459 --> 00:19:57.640
you know,

900
00:19:57.800 --> 00:19:57.810
the,

901
00:19:57.979 --> 00:19:58.880
the idea that,

902
00:19:59.040 --> 00:20:02.109
that prediction markets are somehow a threat to democracy is,

903
00:20:02.280 --> 00:20:02.780
is,

904
00:20:03.229 --> 00:20:04.439
it's really insulting.

905
00:20:05.380 --> 00:20:05.579
You know,

906
00:20:05.660 --> 00:20:07.219
there are lots of threats to democracy.

907
00:20:07.319 --> 00:20:08.420
Democracy is pretty strong,

908
00:20:08.500 --> 00:20:08.900
by the way,

909
00:20:08.959 --> 00:20:09.949
it's pretty healthy.

910
00:20:10.180 --> 00:20:11.260
It's been around for a long,

911
00:20:11.380 --> 00:20:11.979
long time.

912
00:20:12.880 --> 00:20:14.810
But to think that prediction markets,

913
00:20:14.890 --> 00:20:15.390
people

914
00:20:15.810 --> 00:20:16.949
putting small,

915
00:20:17.949 --> 00:20:20.609
$1 winner take all bets.

916
00:20:21.520 --> 00:20:22.099
On

917
00:20:22.959 --> 00:20:23.800
Political events,

918
00:20:23.880 --> 00:20:25.300
that this is going to somehow

919
00:20:25.760 --> 00:20:27.339
destroy our democracy,

920
00:20:27.520 --> 00:20:28.109
come on.

921
00:20:29.410 --> 00:20:29.689
I mean,

922
00:20:29.770 --> 00:20:31.109
you gotta do better than that,

923
00:20:31.410 --> 00:20:31.839
and

924
00:20:32.680 --> 00:20:33.060
They can't.

925
00:20:33.319 --> 00:20:34.920
It's kind of an insult to the founders,

926
00:20:35.000 --> 00:20:35.410
frankly.

927
00:20:35.520 --> 00:20:36.469
It really is like,

928
00:20:36.569 --> 00:20:36.829
I mean,

929
00:20:36.839 --> 00:20:37.569
this is a,

930
00:20:37.880 --> 00:20:40.459
a situation that's been built as we hear this all the time,

931
00:20:40.680 --> 00:20:41.239
and part of it,

932
00:20:41.319 --> 00:20:41.550
I think,

933
00:20:41.670 --> 00:20:41.839
John,

934
00:20:41.920 --> 00:20:42.160
is,

935
00:20:42.280 --> 00:20:42.439
you know,

936
00:20:42.520 --> 00:20:46.400
the media does say things a lot where they're like democracy is on the line.

937
00:20:46.520 --> 00:20:47.920
Democracy could be turned over tomorrow.

938
00:20:48.000 --> 00:20:48.800
Who knows what's around

939
00:20:49.160 --> 00:20:49.900
and like we've had,

940
00:20:50.000 --> 00:20:50.760
we have problems.

941
00:20:50.839 --> 00:20:52.060
Democracy can be messy.

942
00:20:52.630 --> 00:20:53.150
But it,

943
00:20:53.540 --> 00:20:55.290
think of the challenges that we've had from,

944
00:20:55.339 --> 00:20:55.489
you know,

945
00:20:55.719 --> 00:20:57.780
on both sides of the aisle over the years.

946
00:20:58.770 --> 00:20:59.359
Democracy,

947
00:20:59.530 --> 00:20:59.650
you know,

948
00:20:59.849 --> 00:21:01.560
as part of a constitutional republic,

949
00:21:01.770 --> 00:21:02.209
importantly,

950
00:21:02.250 --> 00:21:02.449
it's a,

951
00:21:02.500 --> 00:21:03.489
it's a part of the system,

952
00:21:03.609 --> 00:21:04.390
not the whole system.

953
00:21:04.729 --> 00:21:05.449
But like it is a,

954
00:21:05.510 --> 00:21:06.569
it's something that's been very,

955
00:21:06.650 --> 00:21:07.569
very durable,

956
00:21:07.689 --> 00:21:07.920
uh,

957
00:21:08.010 --> 00:21:08.319
and,

958
00:21:08.329 --> 00:21:08.520
uh,

959
00:21:08.530 --> 00:21:08.920
frankly,

960
00:21:08.969 --> 00:21:09.650
I think we,

961
00:21:10.010 --> 00:21:10.170
we,

962
00:21:10.270 --> 00:21:14.430
we scare the American people too often by saying it's about to go away,

963
00:21:14.599 --> 00:21:16.150
and if you elect the wrong person,

964
00:21:16.290 --> 00:21:17.329
it's gonna die forever.

965
00:21:17.410 --> 00:21:17.520
I,

966
00:21:17.569 --> 00:21:18.160
I don't think that's a,

967
00:21:18.319 --> 00:21:18.800
it's a way to,

968
00:21:18.920 --> 00:21:20.050
to make the country any healthier,

969
00:21:20.140 --> 00:21:20.589
that's for sure.

970
00:21:21.640 --> 00:21:21.800
No,

971
00:21:21.849 --> 00:21:22.479
it's not healthy.

972
00:21:22.599 --> 00:21:22.760
It's,

973
00:21:22.810 --> 00:21:23.449
it's not healthy.

974
00:21:23.719 --> 00:21:23.829
But,

975
00:21:23.920 --> 00:21:26.060
but the fact of the matter is the system worked.

976
00:21:26.709 --> 00:21:29.010
Prediction market's gonna be around for a long time to come.

977
00:21:29.079 --> 00:21:30.400
We'll talk about that later in the show,

978
00:21:30.520 --> 00:21:30.880
but,

979
00:21:31.359 --> 00:21:31.439
you know,

980
00:21:31.520 --> 00:21:32.000
these markets,

981
00:21:32.089 --> 00:21:32.199
look,

982
00:21:32.280 --> 00:21:32.400
the,

983
00:21:32.479 --> 00:21:32.640
the,

984
00:21:32.709 --> 00:21:33.739
the power

985
00:21:34.390 --> 00:21:35.160
of markets,

986
00:21:35.239 --> 00:21:35.640
which,

987
00:21:35.650 --> 00:21:36.000
uh,

988
00:21:36.319 --> 00:21:36.780
after all,

989
00:21:36.880 --> 00:21:39.060
consists of people putting their own money down,

990
00:21:39.569 --> 00:21:39.910
uh,

991
00:21:39.920 --> 00:21:41.979
predicting what they think is gonna happen.

992
00:21:42.520 --> 00:21:43.800
These markets are very,

993
00:21:43.880 --> 00:21:45.060
very powerful.

994
00:21:45.439 --> 00:21:45.790
And,

995
00:21:45.910 --> 00:21:46.390
and I,

996
00:21:46.469 --> 00:21:47.739
I respond,

997
00:21:48.500 --> 00:21:49.560
would echo what you say.

998
00:21:49.640 --> 00:21:49.810
I mean,

999
00:21:50.300 --> 00:21:51.099
If you can,

1000
00:21:51.180 --> 00:21:51.660
if you,

1001
00:21:51.780 --> 00:21:52.729
it's not perfect,

1002
00:21:52.859 --> 00:21:55.260
you're pulling back the curtain just a little bit on the future,

1003
00:21:55.300 --> 00:21:56.050
you're getting a,

1004
00:21:56.420 --> 00:21:57.180
a better,

1005
00:21:57.380 --> 00:21:59.339
a better perspective perhaps,

1006
00:21:59.900 --> 00:22:03.050
greater insight into what's gonna happen by looking at what the markets are.

1007
00:22:03.109 --> 00:22:04.959
Whether you're talking about the price of oil

1008
00:22:05.109 --> 00:22:06.189
a year from now,

1009
00:22:06.619 --> 00:22:07.489
a barrel of oil,

1010
00:22:07.500 --> 00:22:07.920
or

1011
00:22:08.099 --> 00:22:09.099
who's gonna win an election,

1012
00:22:09.140 --> 00:22:10.969
the presidential election in 2028.

1013
00:22:13.250 --> 00:22:14.810
Without thinking that the markets are perfect,

1014
00:22:14.890 --> 00:22:17.790
if you can get insights into what is gonna happen

1015
00:22:18.209 --> 00:22:19.189
in the future,

1016
00:22:19.609 --> 00:22:21.400
why would you not wanna know that?

1017
00:22:21.530 --> 00:22:24.829
Why would you not wanna have markets providing that information?

1018
00:22:24.890 --> 00:22:26.550
Certainly in commodities markets,

1019
00:22:27.089 --> 00:22:28.910
that information is essential.

1020
00:22:29.329 --> 00:22:30.569
What the weather is gonna be,

1021
00:22:30.650 --> 00:22:33.069
what the growing season's gonna be for farmers,

1022
00:22:33.369 --> 00:22:36.550
all that information is hugely important

1023
00:22:36.849 --> 00:22:38.170
in hurricane season.

1024
00:22:38.739 --> 00:22:40.459
Where the hurricanes are likely to hit,

1025
00:22:40.609 --> 00:22:42.459
what the likely property damage is gonna be.

1026
00:22:42.540 --> 00:22:45.060
We have a whole insurance industry premised

1027
00:22:45.380 --> 00:22:46.540
on forecasting.

1028
00:22:47.020 --> 00:22:47.400
So,

1029
00:22:47.619 --> 00:22:51.160
the idea that forecasting something like political elections is somehow

1030
00:22:51.619 --> 00:22:54.260
a threat to democracy is just preposterous.

1031
00:22:54.780 --> 00:22:55.479
It's really,

1032
00:22:55.699 --> 00:22:56.339
it really is.

1033
00:22:56.420 --> 00:22:56.469
I,

1034
00:22:56.540 --> 00:22:58.119
I'm gonna get into a little bit more of that here in a second,

1035
00:22:58.199 --> 00:23:00.699
but one more question on just predict it and where it stands.

1036
00:23:01.140 --> 00:23:02.250
You've gone through this whole thing.

1037
00:23:02.380 --> 00:23:02.719
You've

1038
00:23:03.099 --> 00:23:03.339
built,

1039
00:23:03.540 --> 00:23:03.650
you know,

1040
00:23:03.739 --> 00:23:05.880
really we're the only player in the industry,

1041
00:23:05.939 --> 00:23:06.119
uh,

1042
00:23:06.180 --> 00:23:07.479
for a very long time.

1043
00:23:07.800 --> 00:23:07.949
Uh,

1044
00:23:08.040 --> 00:23:08.239
now,

1045
00:23:08.319 --> 00:23:08.989
obviously,

1046
00:23:09.000 --> 00:23:09.910
everyone's getting into it,

1047
00:23:10.000 --> 00:23:10.079
right?

1048
00:23:10.119 --> 00:23:10.319
It's a,

1049
00:23:10.400 --> 00:23:11.079
it's a big business.

1050
00:23:11.160 --> 00:23:12.640
There's a couple of huge players.

1051
00:23:12.719 --> 00:23:15.619
There's a bunch of other people trying to get into it and starting,

1052
00:23:15.880 --> 00:23:16.119
uh,

1053
00:23:16.239 --> 00:23:17.430
these new operations.

1054
00:23:17.760 --> 00:23:19.219
How does predict it fit into the,

1055
00:23:19.319 --> 00:23:20.329
the new landscape?

1056
00:23:20.410 --> 00:23:20.680
Um,

1057
00:23:20.760 --> 00:23:20.920
you know,

1058
00:23:21.160 --> 00:23:21.680
back in the day,

1059
00:23:21.760 --> 00:23:22.140
you had,

1060
00:23:22.229 --> 00:23:22.619
you kind of,

1061
00:23:22.680 --> 00:23:22.920
I mean,

1062
00:23:23.079 --> 00:23:24.989
what we think of maybe now are smaller limits.

1063
00:23:25.000 --> 00:23:27.099
I think it was $850 per contract.

1064
00:23:27.359 --> 00:23:27.680
Um,

1065
00:23:28.439 --> 00:23:28.760
now,

1066
00:23:28.839 --> 00:23:28.989
uh,

1067
00:23:29.160 --> 00:23:30.680
it's grown from that time,

1068
00:23:30.800 --> 00:23:32.739
but you're going against people who have unlimited,

1069
00:23:32.819 --> 00:23:33.180
uh,

1070
00:23:33.640 --> 00:23:33.920
contracts.

1071
00:23:34.000 --> 00:23:34.959
You've got all this other thing.

1072
00:23:35.109 --> 00:23:35.119
How,

1073
00:23:35.239 --> 00:23:35.430
how does,

1074
00:23:35.520 --> 00:23:36.660
how does Predicted fit in today?

1075
00:23:37.770 --> 00:23:38.810
That's a great question,

1076
00:23:38.849 --> 00:23:38.969
and,

1077
00:23:39.040 --> 00:23:39.250
and,

1078
00:23:39.329 --> 00:23:41.229
and we're confident that there is

1079
00:23:41.569 --> 00:23:42.619
a great market.

1080
00:23:42.810 --> 00:23:43.609
First of all,

1081
00:23:44.050 --> 00:23:45.050
there are gonna be more than,

1082
00:23:45.130 --> 00:23:47.729
there's always gonna be more than one prediction market.

1083
00:23:48.050 --> 00:23:48.329
We were,

1084
00:23:48.410 --> 00:23:50.969
there was a while of time there where we were the only ones,

1085
00:23:51.020 --> 00:23:52.150
and that was kind of lonely,

1086
00:23:52.609 --> 00:23:54.589
and it made it easy for the government to pick on us.

1087
00:23:54.930 --> 00:23:55.300
But

1088
00:23:55.449 --> 00:23:56.739
the fact of the matter is,

1089
00:23:57.130 --> 00:23:58.050
there are gonna be,

1090
00:23:58.660 --> 00:24:02.170
Hundreds if not thousands of prediction markets on every

1091
00:24:02.170 --> 00:24:05.839
conceivable possible thing that people might want to know

1092
00:24:06.260 --> 00:24:07.560
what the future holds.

1093
00:24:07.900 --> 00:24:08.270
So,

1094
00:24:08.540 --> 00:24:10.300
news organizations alone,

1095
00:24:10.660 --> 00:24:14.060
news organizations are gonna have their own prediction markets or subscribe

1096
00:24:14.060 --> 00:24:16.680
to prediction markets like predicted or some of the others,

1097
00:24:17.020 --> 00:24:17.209
um,

1098
00:24:17.459 --> 00:24:17.800
because

1099
00:24:18.140 --> 00:24:18.810
this gives,

1100
00:24:18.859 --> 00:24:21.119
and what better way to monetize,

1101
00:24:21.550 --> 00:24:22.750
Your news content,

1102
00:24:22.829 --> 00:24:25.219
if you've got good solid reporting,

1103
00:24:25.469 --> 00:24:26.560
which is expensive,

1104
00:24:26.630 --> 00:24:29.109
it's prohibitively expensive to run a good newsroom.

1105
00:24:30.119 --> 00:24:32.359
If you've got good solid content and you're,

1106
00:24:32.439 --> 00:24:36.689
you figure out a way to sell that to your readers or your listeners as you guys have.

1107
00:24:37.849 --> 00:24:39.189
That information,

1108
00:24:39.449 --> 00:24:43.130
giving your listeners the ability to write on the spot.

1109
00:24:44.229 --> 00:24:45.290
Profit from that

1110
00:24:46.380 --> 00:24:49.780
information they're gleaning from the pages of your magazine or your newspaper,

1111
00:24:49.790 --> 00:24:50.790
or your podcast.

1112
00:24:51.520 --> 00:24:53.170
To be able to place a bet

1113
00:24:53.489 --> 00:24:55.130
on who's gonna win an election,

1114
00:24:55.209 --> 00:24:55.569
for instance,

1115
00:24:55.619 --> 00:24:57.229
if you're reporting on the election.

1116
00:24:57.770 --> 00:24:59.030
That is fantastic.

1117
00:24:59.410 --> 00:25:02.609
It serves the function that polling has served in the past,

1118
00:25:02.689 --> 00:25:04.369
which is the horse race piece of it.

1119
00:25:04.770 --> 00:25:06.569
But it also serves the ability of letting,

1120
00:25:06.609 --> 00:25:07.790
of engaging

1121
00:25:08.209 --> 00:25:08.829
the viewers,

1122
00:25:08.920 --> 00:25:10.170
engaging your readers,

1123
00:25:10.209 --> 00:25:12.089
the people who are paying for that news content,

1124
00:25:12.209 --> 00:25:13.829
letting them make some money back

1125
00:25:14.250 --> 00:25:15.729
and putting their money where their mouth is.

1126
00:25:15.810 --> 00:25:16.489
And so it's a great,

1127
00:25:16.530 --> 00:25:17.709
it's a virtuous cycle.

1128
00:25:18.199 --> 00:25:18.520
It's a,

1129
00:25:18.599 --> 00:25:18.959
it's a,

1130
00:25:19.130 --> 00:25:19.239
you know,

1131
00:25:19.319 --> 00:25:19.709
it's,

1132
00:25:19.719 --> 00:25:21.199
all the details haven't been worked out,

1133
00:25:21.280 --> 00:25:22.459
but I think they're gonna be,

1134
00:25:22.920 --> 00:25:24.699
the role for predicted is gonna be

1135
00:25:25.400 --> 00:25:27.739
the go to place if you wanna bet on politics.

1136
00:25:27.920 --> 00:25:29.140
If you want to be

1137
00:25:29.319 --> 00:25:31.150
in an environment where there's smart money,

1138
00:25:31.479 --> 00:25:33.140
where people are carrying on,

1139
00:25:33.410 --> 00:25:33.510
you know,

1140
00:25:33.520 --> 00:25:34.800
intelligent conversations,

1141
00:25:35.010 --> 00:25:36.239
sometimes not so intelligent,

1142
00:25:36.400 --> 00:25:37.520
passionate conversations,

1143
00:25:37.569 --> 00:25:38.099
I guess.

1144
00:25:38.430 --> 00:25:38.800
Um,

1145
00:25:39.000 --> 00:25:39.319
but if,

1146
00:25:39.439 --> 00:25:39.589
if,

1147
00:25:39.640 --> 00:25:40.239
if that's where,

1148
00:25:40.310 --> 00:25:41.150
if that's what you're,

1149
00:25:41.400 --> 00:25:41.599
you're,

1150
00:25:41.709 --> 00:25:43.140
if that's what floats your boat,

1151
00:25:43.589 --> 00:25:44.520
Predicted is your site.

1152
00:25:44.640 --> 00:25:45.979
We're not in the sports betting

1153
00:25:46.150 --> 00:25:46.599
piece of it.

1154
00:25:46.680 --> 00:25:47.680
We don't do a lot of other things.

1155
00:25:47.719 --> 00:25:48.359
We don't do weather,

1156
00:25:48.459 --> 00:25:48.780
for instance,

1157
00:25:48.839 --> 00:25:49.619
some of this other stuff.

1158
00:25:49.880 --> 00:25:51.180
We focus on the political,

1159
00:25:51.680 --> 00:25:52.880
on the political forecasting,

1160
00:25:52.920 --> 00:25:53.630
and that's what we,

1161
00:25:53.750 --> 00:25:54.260
we love,

1162
00:25:54.319 --> 00:25:54.520
and,

1163
00:25:54.640 --> 00:25:56.180
and that's what we think we're making our mark.

1164
00:25:56.479 --> 00:25:59.189
And that's always been the most interesting part of prediction markets to me.

1165
00:25:59.239 --> 00:26:02.160
It's always been politics and elections and how bills are gonna

1166
00:26:02.160 --> 00:26:04.260
come out and how Supreme Court votes are gonna go.

1167
00:26:04.760 --> 00:26:05.920
All that stuff is fascinating to me.

1168
00:26:06.094 --> 00:26:07.964
And I know it's fascinating to the audience as well.

1169
00:26:08.295 --> 00:26:08.405
Uh,

1170
00:26:08.494 --> 00:26:08.614
John,

1171
00:26:08.694 --> 00:26:09.454
let me take one more break.

1172
00:26:09.535 --> 00:26:10.145
I wanna come back,

1173
00:26:10.165 --> 00:26:10.295
uh,

1174
00:26:10.305 --> 00:26:10.515
uh,

1175
00:26:10.535 --> 00:26:11.515
on the other side.

1176
00:26:11.734 --> 00:26:11.974
I mean,

1177
00:26:12.064 --> 00:26:12.214
you know,

1178
00:26:12.415 --> 00:26:12.795
political,

1179
00:26:12.935 --> 00:26:13.255
uh,

1180
00:26:13.334 --> 00:26:14.484
intrigue is always there,

1181
00:26:14.655 --> 00:26:15.135
as you mentioned,

1182
00:26:15.214 --> 00:26:16.795
you can't do politics without,

1183
00:26:16.854 --> 00:26:17.165
uh,

1184
00:26:17.175 --> 00:26:17.675
people,

1185
00:26:17.895 --> 00:26:18.214
uh,

1186
00:26:18.285 --> 00:26:19.765
being passionate and sometimes,

1187
00:26:19.814 --> 00:26:20.135
um,

1188
00:26:20.204 --> 00:26:20.655
you know,

1189
00:26:20.915 --> 00:26:21.395
stupid.

1190
00:26:21.574 --> 00:26:21.694
Uh,

1191
00:26:21.775 --> 00:26:22.694
I know I'm in that boat.

1192
00:26:22.814 --> 00:26:23.834
I know most people are.

1193
00:26:23.974 --> 00:26:24.045
Uh,

1194
00:26:24.094 --> 00:26:25.775
I wanna come back on the other side and we'll try to make ourselves

1195
00:26:25.775 --> 00:26:28.454
a little bit smarter when it comes to prediction markets in just a second.

1196
00:26:46.089 --> 00:26:46.839
Having a great conversation

1197
00:26:46.969 --> 00:26:48.329
with John Aristotle Phillips.

1198
00:26:48.369 --> 00:26:50.069
He's the co-founder and CEO of PredictI.

1199
00:26:50.130 --> 00:26:51.410
Wanna let you know if you are

1200
00:26:51.410 --> 00:26:54.560
a premium subscriber to Predicted Predictableshow.com,

1201
00:26:54.930 --> 00:26:55.489
you can answer,

1202
00:26:55.530 --> 00:26:55.680
uh,

1203
00:26:55.689 --> 00:26:56.550
ask some questions,

1204
00:26:56.560 --> 00:26:58.619
and John's gonna hang out for a quick,

1205
00:26:58.630 --> 00:26:59.069
uh,

1206
00:26:59.079 --> 00:26:59.579
Q&A

1207
00:26:59.900 --> 00:27:02.489
after the show available to premium subscribers only.

1208
00:27:02.569 --> 00:27:03.709
We'd love for you to join us,

1209
00:27:03.729 --> 00:27:04.040
uh,

1210
00:27:04.050 --> 00:27:04.469
there.

1211
00:27:04.839 --> 00:27:05.540
Uh,

1212
00:27:05.890 --> 00:27:06.089
John,

1213
00:27:06.209 --> 00:27:06.839
over here at,

1214
00:27:06.849 --> 00:27:07.069
uh,

1215
00:27:07.109 --> 00:27:08.319
Predictable show,

1216
00:27:08.449 --> 00:27:10.390
we prefer the term investing,

1217
00:27:10.449 --> 00:27:10.670
uh,

1218
00:27:10.680 --> 00:27:11.030
over,

1219
00:27:11.050 --> 00:27:11.770
over betting.

1220
00:27:12.089 --> 00:27:12.369
Um,

1221
00:27:12.530 --> 00:27:14.369
because I think it's a good mindset change in a,

1222
00:27:14.449 --> 00:27:14.969
in a way to,

1223
00:27:15.089 --> 00:27:15.880
to look at this,

1224
00:27:15.890 --> 00:27:16.040
uh,

1225
00:27:16.050 --> 00:27:17.150
a little bit differently.

1226
00:27:17.449 --> 00:27:17.859
Um,

1227
00:27:17.969 --> 00:27:20.079
and so I wanna ask you a couple of questions,

1228
00:27:20.410 --> 00:27:22.410
and these are sort of rapid-fire,

1229
00:27:22.489 --> 00:27:22.949
uh,

1230
00:27:23.050 --> 00:27:23.790
questions for you,

1231
00:27:24.050 --> 00:27:27.880
and I believe I'm legally required to ask them because every prediction market

1232
00:27:27.880 --> 00:27:30.479
interview I've ever heard from the mainstream media ask these three questions.

1233
00:27:30.569 --> 00:27:31.599
So let me give them to you here.

1234
00:27:31.849 --> 00:27:32.329
Number 1,

1235
00:27:32.449 --> 00:27:33.189
prediction markets,

1236
00:27:33.359 --> 00:27:34.569
are they gambling?

1237
00:27:36.089 --> 00:27:36.449
No.

1238
00:27:37.469 --> 00:27:37.650
No,

1239
00:27:37.660 --> 00:27:38.260
and why?

1240
00:27:40.250 --> 00:27:40.599
I mean,

1241
00:27:40.689 --> 00:27:40.969
in the,

1242
00:27:41.089 --> 00:27:41.449
in the,

1243
00:27:41.530 --> 00:27:42.290
in the legal sense,

1244
00:27:42.369 --> 00:27:43.060
they're not gambling.

1245
00:27:43.119 --> 00:27:45.010
They're not regulated as gambling sites.

1246
00:27:45.130 --> 00:27:45.290
Uh,

1247
00:27:45.369 --> 00:27:45.609
there's a,

1248
00:27:45.680 --> 00:27:45.810
you know,

1249
00:27:45.880 --> 00:27:48.910
the courts are gonna determine to what extent these are permitted

1250
00:27:49.130 --> 00:27:50.430
to be regulated

1251
00:27:50.729 --> 00:27:52.630
by the feds rather than the states.

1252
00:27:53.050 --> 00:27:53.489
Um,

1253
00:27:53.579 --> 00:27:53.839
but,

1254
00:27:53.890 --> 00:27:54.579
uh,

1255
00:27:55.099 --> 00:27:55.209
you know,

1256
00:27:55.280 --> 00:27:56.089
and there's risk,

1257
00:27:56.170 --> 00:27:56.530
of course,

1258
00:27:56.609 --> 00:27:57.280
on Wall Street,

1259
00:27:57.290 --> 00:27:58.479
where I'm talking to you about,

1260
00:27:58.890 --> 00:27:59.790
from today.

1261
00:28:00.250 --> 00:28:00.410
You know,

1262
00:28:00.489 --> 00:28:01.839
there is an element of,

1263
00:28:01.930 --> 00:28:03.930
of risk-taking on any investment.

1264
00:28:04.569 --> 00:28:06.630
But we see these as financial markets,

1265
00:28:07.050 --> 00:28:07.199
uh,

1266
00:28:07.250 --> 00:28:08.949
and they should be regulated as such.

1267
00:28:09.449 --> 00:28:09.609
All right,

1268
00:28:09.719 --> 00:28:09.949
uh,

1269
00:28:09.969 --> 00:28:10.510
question number 2.

1270
00:28:11.079 --> 00:28:12.310
Insider trading.

1271
00:28:12.530 --> 00:28:14.650
Should it be legal and is it a problem?

1272
00:28:16.300 --> 00:28:17.339
So you mentioned earlier,

1273
00:28:17.459 --> 00:28:17.729
Stu,

1274
00:28:18.219 --> 00:28:19.060
that we have a,

1275
00:28:19.160 --> 00:28:20.560
a position limit.

1276
00:28:20.979 --> 00:28:23.310
We had a position limit of $850.

1277
00:28:23.699 --> 00:28:23.859
Uh,

1278
00:28:23.900 --> 00:28:25.900
that was increased as part of the settlement with the

1279
00:28:25.900 --> 00:28:27.979
CFTC as a result of our victory in court.

1280
00:28:28.089 --> 00:28:30.880
It's now $3500 which is interestingly enough,

1281
00:28:31.709 --> 00:28:32.510
The same,

1282
00:28:32.560 --> 00:28:33.579
it's pegged

1283
00:28:34.160 --> 00:28:35.010
to the

1284
00:28:35.349 --> 00:28:38.239
contribution limit at the federal level to federal candidates,

1285
00:28:38.319 --> 00:28:41.319
so you can only give up to $3500 and it's pegged to that,

1286
00:28:41.400 --> 00:28:43.079
so it will go up if that goes up.

1287
00:28:43.560 --> 00:28:43.859
Um,

1288
00:28:43.880 --> 00:28:47.520
and with the theory being that you can't really buy a congressman for $3500

1289
00:28:47.640 --> 00:28:48.020
so

1290
00:28:48.520 --> 00:28:48.890
that's a,

1291
00:28:49.000 --> 00:28:50.599
the Congress has already debated that,

1292
00:28:50.709 --> 00:28:51.550
determined that.

1293
00:28:52.739 --> 00:28:53.640
End of story.

1294
00:28:54.140 --> 00:28:54.599
So,

1295
00:28:54.989 --> 00:28:55.300
um,

1296
00:28:55.390 --> 00:28:58.040
the position limit really deters

1297
00:28:58.540 --> 00:29:03.060
the most egregious insider trading because at $3500 position limit,

1298
00:29:04.479 --> 00:29:04.719
You know,

1299
00:29:04.839 --> 00:29:05.079
it's,

1300
00:29:05.160 --> 00:29:05.739
it's,

1301
00:29:06.160 --> 00:29:06.280
and,

1302
00:29:06.359 --> 00:29:09.640
and we combine that with rigorous identity verification,

1303
00:29:09.719 --> 00:29:10.579
which we employ.

1304
00:29:12.099 --> 00:29:12.630
When you want,

1305
00:29:12.670 --> 00:29:14.109
when you go on to predict it.

1306
00:29:14.859 --> 00:29:15.400
Um,

1307
00:29:15.750 --> 00:29:16.109
these,

1308
00:29:16.270 --> 00:29:20.329
these two things make it insane to try to engage in insider trading

1309
00:29:20.630 --> 00:29:23.829
with information that is not public and that was illegally obtained.

1310
00:29:24.069 --> 00:29:24.430
So,

1311
00:29:25.160 --> 00:29:25.319
You know,

1312
00:29:25.780 --> 00:29:26.020
if

1313
00:29:26.130 --> 00:29:27.099
you're gonna get caught.

1314
00:29:28.239 --> 00:29:30.920
And you're gonna get punished if you engage in insider trading,

1315
00:29:31.030 --> 00:29:31.329
so,

1316
00:29:31.599 --> 00:29:32.359
unpredicted.

1317
00:29:32.800 --> 00:29:33.000
Um,

1318
00:29:33.040 --> 00:29:33.189
now,

1319
00:29:33.239 --> 00:29:33.640
if you're,

1320
00:29:33.719 --> 00:29:35.280
if it's a site that's offshore,

1321
00:29:35.319 --> 00:29:35.719
that there,

1322
00:29:35.839 --> 00:29:38.199
there are no position limits and where

1323
00:29:38.199 --> 00:29:40.579
there's no identity verification and there's no

1324
00:29:41.280 --> 00:29:43.739
legal jurisdiction to protect consumers,

1325
00:29:44.199 --> 00:29:45.660
that's another matter and I'm not gonna

1326
00:29:45.920 --> 00:29:46.439
defend that.

1327
00:29:47.199 --> 00:29:47.280
Right,

1328
00:29:47.520 --> 00:29:47.680
and,

1329
00:29:47.760 --> 00:29:48.099
uh,

1330
00:29:48.119 --> 00:29:49.459
this we always try to remind people,

1331
00:29:49.599 --> 00:29:49.829
uh,

1332
00:29:49.839 --> 00:29:50.089
here,

1333
00:29:50.359 --> 00:29:53.800
just every once in a while that if you're thinking about doing something like that,

1334
00:29:54.000 --> 00:29:54.589
don't do it.

1335
00:29:54.640 --> 00:29:55.280
It's stupid,

1336
00:29:55.319 --> 00:29:57.469
you're going to get caught and it's not worth it.

1337
00:29:57.719 --> 00:29:58.270
And as you point out,

1338
00:29:58.319 --> 00:29:58.800
the prediction,

1339
00:29:58.920 --> 00:29:59.069
those,

1340
00:29:59.239 --> 00:30:00.780
those limits really do cap

1341
00:30:00.989 --> 00:30:02.459
even the upside of attempting it.

1342
00:30:02.719 --> 00:30:03.000
Um,

1343
00:30:03.189 --> 00:30:04.520
last one for you on the quick,

1344
00:30:04.599 --> 00:30:05.239
uh,

1345
00:30:05.319 --> 00:30:07.339
legally required to ask a question list.

1346
00:30:07.520 --> 00:30:10.839
Are prediction markets good for society and is there utility in them?

1347
00:30:13.290 --> 00:30:13.609
Well,

1348
00:30:13.689 --> 00:30:14.199
I mean,

1349
00:30:14.449 --> 00:30:14.890
yes,

1350
00:30:15.010 --> 00:30:16.069
it's good for society,

1351
00:30:16.250 --> 00:30:16.609
and yes,

1352
00:30:16.689 --> 00:30:17.680
there's great utility.

1353
00:30:17.810 --> 00:30:17.880
If,

1354
00:30:18.050 --> 00:30:18.250
if,

1355
00:30:18.410 --> 00:30:19.969
if there were no utility in it.

1356
00:30:20.800 --> 00:30:21.140
I mean,

1357
00:30:21.199 --> 00:30:22.390
I guess entertainment is,

1358
00:30:22.479 --> 00:30:23.000
is

1359
00:30:23.319 --> 00:30:24.510
a form of a utility.

1360
00:30:24.719 --> 00:30:25.920
Price discovery though,

1361
00:30:26.140 --> 00:30:27.699
which is how people normally,

1362
00:30:27.839 --> 00:30:29.619
what people normally associate with

1363
00:30:29.760 --> 00:30:31.250
well-functioning markets.

1364
00:30:31.719 --> 00:30:32.050
Uh,

1365
00:30:32.239 --> 00:30:33.199
price discovery is,

1366
00:30:33.280 --> 00:30:33.839
is a,

1367
00:30:34.040 --> 00:30:34.750
is a,

1368
00:30:35.699 --> 00:30:36.160
Core

1369
00:30:37.140 --> 00:30:40.000
benefit of these prediction markets and any market,

1370
00:30:40.459 --> 00:30:41.939
knowing what the odds are,

1371
00:30:42.380 --> 00:30:42.619
uh,

1372
00:30:42.739 --> 00:30:45.150
what the price of a particular commodity should be,

1373
00:30:45.459 --> 00:30:46.189
that's

1374
00:30:46.420 --> 00:30:47.060
essential in a,

1375
00:30:47.140 --> 00:30:48.050
in a functioning,

1376
00:30:48.339 --> 00:30:49.339
in a functioning market,

1377
00:30:49.420 --> 00:30:49.819
which I,

1378
00:30:49.930 --> 00:30:51.880
I see as being tied to democracy,

1379
00:30:52.180 --> 00:30:53.410
which gets to the second part,

1380
00:30:53.540 --> 00:30:54.930
actually is the first part of your question,

1381
00:30:54.939 --> 00:30:55.500
which is,

1382
00:30:55.939 --> 00:30:56.979
are these good for society?

1383
00:30:57.020 --> 00:30:58.380
I think they're great for society.

1384
00:30:58.449 --> 00:30:59.719
Anything that engages.

1385
00:31:00.489 --> 00:31:01.329
Individuals.

1386
00:31:01.410 --> 00:31:02.010
First of all,

1387
00:31:02.250 --> 00:31:02.790
the big,

1388
00:31:03.089 --> 00:31:03.250
you know,

1389
00:31:03.329 --> 00:31:03.489
the,

1390
00:31:03.810 --> 00:31:06.130
anything that engages individuals in the democratic

1391
00:31:06.130 --> 00:31:07.910
process is generally a good thing,

1392
00:31:08.280 --> 00:31:08.719
uh,

1393
00:31:08.930 --> 00:31:10.229
and prediction markets

1394
00:31:10.969 --> 00:31:13.130
are an engagement tool on steroids,

1395
00:31:13.209 --> 00:31:14.050
as we've talked about.

1396
00:31:14.130 --> 00:31:17.689
They really do get you engaged in consuming more information

1397
00:31:17.969 --> 00:31:18.239
and,

1398
00:31:18.329 --> 00:31:20.640
and deciphering that information you're consuming,

1399
00:31:20.709 --> 00:31:21.630
you're consuming,

1400
00:31:22.170 --> 00:31:23.130
separating.

1401
00:31:24.119 --> 00:31:24.550
The,

1402
00:31:24.760 --> 00:31:25.660
the BS

1403
00:31:26.079 --> 00:31:27.939
that's out there in a lot of media outlets

1404
00:31:28.160 --> 00:31:29.260
from the facts,

1405
00:31:29.680 --> 00:31:29.949
and if,

1406
00:31:29.959 --> 00:31:31.060
cause if you're betting.

1407
00:31:31.949 --> 00:31:33.020
If you're investing,

1408
00:31:33.079 --> 00:31:33.859
as you say,

1409
00:31:34.739 --> 00:31:35.599
Based on

1410
00:31:36.079 --> 00:31:37.560
fake news,

1411
00:31:38.140 --> 00:31:40.140
based on BS that you're consuming,

1412
00:31:40.180 --> 00:31:41.300
you're gonna lose your money,

1413
00:31:41.420 --> 00:31:41.660
Stu.

1414
00:31:42.750 --> 00:31:43.410
And so,

1415
00:31:43.869 --> 00:31:45.449
that's the difference between,

1416
00:31:45.949 --> 00:31:46.150
I mean,

1417
00:31:46.390 --> 00:31:47.469
to my way of thinking,

1418
00:31:47.550 --> 00:31:50.489
these prediction markets are extraordinarily valuable for those reasons.

1419
00:31:50.910 --> 00:31:51.540
And they also,

1420
00:31:51.589 --> 00:31:52.550
the biggest consumers,

1421
00:31:52.630 --> 00:31:55.910
the biggest beneficiaries of these prediction markets are not the traders

1422
00:31:55.910 --> 00:31:58.449
themselves who will be making some money or losing some money.

1423
00:31:58.949 --> 00:32:02.069
The biggest beneficiaries are the people who come to predict it

1424
00:32:02.390 --> 00:32:03.660
because they want to see the odds.

1425
00:32:03.869 --> 00:32:05.589
That includes news organizations,

1426
00:32:05.989 --> 00:32:06.579
voters,

1427
00:32:06.829 --> 00:32:07.420
citizens,

1428
00:32:07.550 --> 00:32:09.489
people concerned about the future of America.

1429
00:32:10.219 --> 00:32:11.780
You go to predict it because you want to know

1430
00:32:11.780 --> 00:32:13.540
what the odds of something are that's gonna happen.

1431
00:32:13.579 --> 00:32:14.199
It's political.

1432
00:32:14.819 --> 00:32:14.859
Yeah,

1433
00:32:14.939 --> 00:32:15.180
the,

1434
00:32:15.219 --> 00:32:16.500
the number I hear get thrown around,

1435
00:32:16.579 --> 00:32:16.739
John,

1436
00:32:16.780 --> 00:32:18.000
is something like 3/4,

1437
00:32:18.189 --> 00:32:18.459
uh,

1438
00:32:18.619 --> 00:32:20.839
or more of the people who actually visit

1439
00:32:20.939 --> 00:32:23.180
prediction market sites go to it for the data.

1440
00:32:23.260 --> 00:32:24.050
Like they're not trading.

1441
00:32:24.099 --> 00:32:24.339
They're not,

1442
00:32:24.439 --> 00:32:25.699
they're not even thinking about trading.

1443
00:32:26.020 --> 00:32:26.670
They just wanna know,

1444
00:32:26.780 --> 00:32:26.969
hey,

1445
00:32:27.219 --> 00:32:28.140
what does my world look like?

1446
00:32:28.939 --> 00:32:29.060
No,

1447
00:32:29.099 --> 00:32:30.579
I think your numbers probably even conservative.

1448
00:32:30.739 --> 00:32:31.020
I think,

1449
00:32:31.140 --> 00:32:31.560
I think

1450
00:32:31.780 --> 00:32:33.020
the vast majority.

1451
00:32:33.819 --> 00:32:34.569
Um,

1452
00:32:35.109 --> 00:32:35.709
people who are,

1453
00:32:35.829 --> 00:32:38.060
who are come to visit the site repeatedly and,

1454
00:32:38.189 --> 00:32:38.469
and,

1455
00:32:38.589 --> 00:32:38.819
and,

1456
00:32:38.910 --> 00:32:39.109
and,

1457
00:32:39.209 --> 00:32:40.489
and sit on the site,

1458
00:32:41.069 --> 00:32:41.339
uh,

1459
00:32:41.349 --> 00:32:42.420
watching the odds fluctuate.

1460
00:32:42.510 --> 00:32:42.599
So,

1461
00:32:42.739 --> 00:32:44.770
when you have a debate or an election night,

1462
00:32:45.270 --> 00:32:45.989
it's wild.

1463
00:32:47.130 --> 00:32:47.140
Yeah,

1464
00:32:47.650 --> 00:32:47.849
it,

1465
00:32:48.010 --> 00:32:48.689
it really is.

1466
00:32:48.930 --> 00:32:49.000
Uh,

1467
00:32:49.050 --> 00:32:49.890
I think another thing too,

1468
00:32:49.959 --> 00:32:50.119
uh,

1469
00:32:50.209 --> 00:32:50.329
when,

1470
00:32:50.449 --> 00:32:51.040
when it comes to,

1471
00:32:51.089 --> 00:32:51.349
uh,

1472
00:32:51.369 --> 00:32:52.609
the positives of prediction markets,

1473
00:32:52.650 --> 00:32:52.729
I,

1474
00:32:52.810 --> 00:32:52.930
I,

1475
00:32:53.089 --> 00:32:54.790
I think it helps people

1476
00:32:55.209 --> 00:32:56.650
think a little bit more pro

1477
00:32:56.969 --> 00:32:57.689
probabilistically,

1478
00:32:57.920 --> 00:32:58.650
but I can never say that word,

1479
00:32:58.729 --> 00:32:59.189
but you know,

1480
00:32:59.290 --> 00:33:00.670
in proba probabilities,

1481
00:33:00.849 --> 00:33:01.060
uh,

1482
00:33:01.209 --> 00:33:02.329
when you think of it that way,

1483
00:33:02.349 --> 00:33:03.449
because I remember going back to,

1484
00:33:03.510 --> 00:33:05.030
I think it was 2016,

1485
00:33:05.329 --> 00:33:05.680
uh,

1486
00:33:06.050 --> 00:33:07.959
Nate Silver was doing his election model,

1487
00:33:07.969 --> 00:33:08.290
and he had,

1488
00:33:08.329 --> 00:33:08.569
I think,

1489
00:33:08.689 --> 00:33:12.319
Trump with like a 28.6% chance to win or something like that,

1490
00:33:12.530 --> 00:33:14.079
and a lot of other places had it at,

1491
00:33:14.250 --> 00:33:14.449
you know,

1492
00:33:14.640 --> 00:33:15.890
5% or 4%.

1493
00:33:16.300 --> 00:33:16.500
Uh,

1494
00:33:16.569 --> 00:33:16.739
and,

1495
00:33:16.790 --> 00:33:16.979
you know,

1496
00:33:17.140 --> 00:33:17.800
much lower.

1497
00:33:18.180 --> 00:33:18.540
And I,

1498
00:33:18.660 --> 00:33:22.160
he took kind of like a beating in the press because he quote unquote got it wrong,

1499
00:33:22.300 --> 00:33:22.560
but I,

1500
00:33:22.619 --> 00:33:25.640
I was actually a pretty big defender of him in that because

1501
00:33:25.859 --> 00:33:28.219
he was the most optimistic for Trump,

1502
00:33:28.339 --> 00:33:28.540
uh,

1503
00:33:28.660 --> 00:33:31.339
out of all of the prediction models that I was looking at at,

1504
00:33:31.359 --> 00:33:32.020
at that time,

1505
00:33:32.069 --> 00:33:33.040
or election models.

1506
00:33:33.619 --> 00:33:33.979
And,

1507
00:33:34.420 --> 00:33:34.569
you know,

1508
00:33:34.619 --> 00:33:36.420
it gave you a sense as to like where,

1509
00:33:36.459 --> 00:33:36.579
I,

1510
00:33:36.660 --> 00:33:37.520
cause I remember buying,

1511
00:33:37.660 --> 00:33:37.979
I think,

1512
00:33:38.099 --> 00:33:38.250
uh,

1513
00:33:38.380 --> 00:33:38.540
you know,

1514
00:33:38.959 --> 00:33:40.020
in 2016.

1515
00:33:40.540 --> 00:33:44.209
Getting Trump at 8 and 9% on election night,

1516
00:33:44.459 --> 00:33:47.359
not because I honestly thought Trump was gonna win cause I didn't,

1517
00:33:48.020 --> 00:33:49.579
because I just thought there was value there,

1518
00:33:49.650 --> 00:33:49.770
right?

1519
00:33:49.939 --> 00:33:49.949
There,

1520
00:33:50.140 --> 00:33:50.420
there was,

1521
00:33:50.540 --> 00:33:50.890
you have,

1522
00:33:50.939 --> 00:33:53.250
if you start thinking in terms of probability,

1523
00:33:53.459 --> 00:33:55.319
you understand the world so much more clearly.

1524
00:33:56.920 --> 00:33:57.099
Like you,

1525
00:33:57.300 --> 00:33:58.729
you are dead on with that.

1526
00:33:58.819 --> 00:33:59.780
Absolutely right.

1527
00:34:00.569 --> 00:34:00.579
Yeah,

1528
00:34:01.209 --> 00:34:01.410
I mean,

1529
00:34:01.449 --> 00:34:01.949
you can,

1530
00:34:02.130 --> 00:34:02.790
you can,

1531
00:34:03.050 --> 00:34:03.489
when you make,

1532
00:34:03.569 --> 00:34:06.530
when you make a forecast prediction on predicted.

1533
00:34:07.630 --> 00:34:08.149
You can,

1534
00:34:08.310 --> 00:34:08.429
you know,

1535
00:34:08.550 --> 00:34:09.590
you can love.

1536
00:34:11.290 --> 00:34:12.228
Tallarico

1537
00:34:13.290 --> 00:34:13.610
You know,

1538
00:34:13.728 --> 00:34:15.010
at 45 cents,

1539
00:34:15.090 --> 00:34:16.969
which is where he's about where he's trading right now,

1540
00:34:17.050 --> 00:34:18.350
45% odds.

1541
00:34:18.649 --> 00:34:21.090
You can love him at 45% and hate him at 55%.

1542
00:34:22.208 --> 00:34:22.409
Right?

1543
00:34:22.449 --> 00:34:24.688
You can dump your shares of Tallarico,

1544
00:34:25.000 --> 00:34:26.399
if you think he's overpriced,

1545
00:34:26.449 --> 00:34:29.290
or if you think he's underpriced relative to what's likely to happen,

1546
00:34:29.370 --> 00:34:29.770
you can,

1547
00:34:29.929 --> 00:34:30.469
you can,

1548
00:34:31.010 --> 00:34:33.850
you can bottom fish and load up on Tallarico.

1549
00:34:34.168 --> 00:34:35.909
And the same is true of all these races.

1550
00:34:36.010 --> 00:34:36.050
You,

1551
00:34:36.199 --> 00:34:36.330
you know,

1552
00:34:36.409 --> 00:34:36.649
you're,

1553
00:34:36.770 --> 00:34:37.010
you're,

1554
00:34:37.129 --> 00:34:37.330
you're,

1555
00:34:37.438 --> 00:34:38.030
you are,

1556
00:34:38.810 --> 00:34:40.949
you are trying to weigh the odds

1557
00:34:41.449 --> 00:34:42.330
with your with,

1558
00:34:42.409 --> 00:34:44.478
with the price that you're paying for these shares,

1559
00:34:44.489 --> 00:34:46.188
from 1 penny to $1.

1560
00:34:46.688 --> 00:34:46.810
Uh,

1561
00:34:46.889 --> 00:34:48.208
and so you're trying to weigh the odds,

1562
00:34:48.219 --> 00:34:48.500
and you're,

1563
00:34:48.590 --> 00:34:49.830
and you're doing that against,

1564
00:34:50.409 --> 00:34:53.280
Thousands or tens of thousands of other people are doing the same thing.

1565
00:34:53.728 --> 00:34:54.300
It's great.

1566
00:34:54.600 --> 00:34:54.728
Yeah,

1567
00:34:54.850 --> 00:34:54.978
it's,

1568
00:34:55.010 --> 00:34:55.810
it's it's a lot of fun,

1569
00:34:55.889 --> 00:34:56.520
as we said,

1570
00:34:56.649 --> 00:34:56.918
you know,

1571
00:34:57.010 --> 00:34:57.550
it's great.

1572
00:34:57.729 --> 00:34:58.250
If you think you,

1573
00:34:58.370 --> 00:34:59.929
if you think somebody's undervalued,

1574
00:35:00.290 --> 00:35:03.570
get in there and pick those up and then you sell those babies when they go up.

1575
00:35:04.419 --> 00:35:04.540
Yeah,

1576
00:35:04.639 --> 00:35:04.729
it,

1577
00:35:04.800 --> 00:35:05.860
it really is so much fun too.

1578
00:35:05.929 --> 00:35:06.060
I mean,

1579
00:35:06.159 --> 00:35:06.179
I,

1580
00:35:06.290 --> 00:35:06.370
we,

1581
00:35:06.419 --> 00:35:06.659
we had,

1582
00:35:06.760 --> 00:35:10.340
we were doing live streaming of election results in Michigan the other night.

1583
00:35:10.419 --> 00:35:12.580
It was just like crazy things happening and you're just

1584
00:35:12.580 --> 00:35:14.229
watching these markets go up and down and it's,

1585
00:35:14.280 --> 00:35:14.739
it's just,

1586
00:35:15.020 --> 00:35:15.709
it's just a blast.

1587
00:35:15.810 --> 00:35:16.860
I'm glad you brought up Texas though.

1588
00:35:16.899 --> 00:35:17.060
I'm,

1589
00:35:17.100 --> 00:35:18.399
I'm in Texas doing the show here.

1590
00:35:18.939 --> 00:35:21.300
This is a really interesting market because,

1591
00:35:21.379 --> 00:35:21.540
you know,

1592
00:35:21.739 --> 00:35:22.300
Texas,

1593
00:35:22.580 --> 00:35:23.840
you feel like it's a red state.

1594
00:35:24.629 --> 00:35:25.340
Basically,

1595
00:35:25.659 --> 00:35:25.810
you know,

1596
00:35:25.889 --> 00:35:28.560
you can kind of assume that the Republican is going to win,

1597
00:35:28.659 --> 00:35:30.070
at least you've been able to do that for,

1598
00:35:30.179 --> 00:35:31.600
for a very long time here.

1599
00:35:31.969 --> 00:35:32.139
Uh,

1600
00:35:32.250 --> 00:35:33.060
but this selection,

1601
00:35:33.219 --> 00:35:35.379
the polling is showing Tallarico with a lead.

1602
00:35:35.459 --> 00:35:36.459
Do we have the predicted market,

1603
00:35:36.550 --> 00:35:36.659
of,

1604
00:35:36.989 --> 00:35:37.010
of,

1605
00:35:37.020 --> 00:35:37.179
of,

1606
00:35:37.260 --> 00:35:37.530
uh,

1607
00:35:37.610 --> 00:35:38.800
of this particular race

1608
00:35:39.139 --> 00:35:41.250
that we could bring up Tallarico versus Paxton?

1609
00:35:41.409 --> 00:35:42.139
This is what it looks like,

1610
00:35:42.179 --> 00:35:42.449
uh,

1611
00:35:42.540 --> 00:35:43.129
right now,

1612
00:35:43.379 --> 00:35:44.800
and you see the movement there,

1613
00:35:45.139 --> 00:35:45.419
um,

1614
00:35:45.580 --> 00:35:45.850
you know,

1615
00:35:46.060 --> 00:35:46.810
looking at that,

1616
00:35:46.899 --> 00:35:47.060
it,

1617
00:35:47.179 --> 00:35:48.360
it is a slight advantage,

1618
00:35:48.510 --> 00:35:48.820
uh,

1619
00:35:48.989 --> 00:35:49.290
for,

1620
00:35:49.379 --> 00:35:49.889
uh,

1621
00:35:49.899 --> 00:35:50.379
Paxton,

1622
00:35:50.459 --> 00:35:50.610
uh,

1623
00:35:50.699 --> 00:35:50.860
but,

1624
00:35:50.969 --> 00:35:51.100
you know,

1625
00:35:51.139 --> 00:35:51.540
it is,

1626
00:35:51.659 --> 00:35:52.179
it's also,

1627
00:35:52.209 --> 00:35:53.760
we're looking at a situation where

1628
00:35:54.040 --> 00:35:54.860
Tallarico has a real,

1629
00:35:55.020 --> 00:35:55.139
uh,

1630
00:35:55.239 --> 00:35:55.729
um,

1631
00:35:55.860 --> 00:35:56.000
uh,

1632
00:35:56.010 --> 00:35:56.340
a real,

1633
00:35:56.459 --> 00:35:57.100
a real chance here.

1634
00:35:57.179 --> 00:35:57.260
How,

1635
00:35:57.340 --> 00:35:58.679
how do you see this market overall?

1636
00:35:59.620 --> 00:35:59.739
Well,

1637
00:35:59.840 --> 00:35:59.979
it's,

1638
00:36:00.060 --> 00:36:00.179
you know,

1639
00:36:00.260 --> 00:36:00.429
it's,

1640
00:36:00.459 --> 00:36:00.649
it's,

1641
00:36:00.699 --> 00:36:01.300
it's been,

1642
00:36:01.580 --> 00:36:01.810
so you,

1643
00:36:01.899 --> 00:36:03.500
you look at it and uh

1644
00:36:04.300 --> 00:36:05.850
uh Paxton's down,

1645
00:36:06.020 --> 00:36:06.179
you know,

1646
00:36:06.260 --> 00:36:06.780
2 cents.

1647
00:36:06.820 --> 00:36:07.219
He was,

1648
00:36:07.300 --> 00:36:08.959
he's at 55 cents right now.

1649
00:36:09.340 --> 00:36:09.790
Um,

1650
00:36:10.060 --> 00:36:10.300
you know,

1651
00:36:10.419 --> 00:36:10.729
it's,

1652
00:36:10.780 --> 00:36:12.139
it's 45% of,

1653
00:36:12.260 --> 00:36:13.219
it's what we talked about earlier,

1654
00:36:13.340 --> 00:36:13.520
right?

1655
00:36:13.620 --> 00:36:14.780
45% of the time.

1656
00:36:15.760 --> 00:36:16.419
Uh

1657
00:36:17.360 --> 00:36:17.580
The,

1658
00:36:17.639 --> 00:36:19.020
the Democrat's gonna win here.

1659
00:36:19.320 --> 00:36:19.550
Uh,

1660
00:36:19.560 --> 00:36:19.959
but again,

1661
00:36:20.000 --> 00:36:21.040
this is gonna change,

1662
00:36:21.239 --> 00:36:21.629
so,

1663
00:36:21.919 --> 00:36:22.070
you know,

1664
00:36:22.120 --> 00:36:22.979
if you think that,

1665
00:36:23.080 --> 00:36:24.000
that Paxton is,

1666
00:36:24.120 --> 00:36:24.469
is,

1667
00:36:24.600 --> 00:36:25.959
you may think Paxton's undervalued.

1668
00:36:26.669 --> 00:36:26.840
Uh,

1669
00:36:26.919 --> 00:36:28.800
in which case you should buy it even though he's running it,

1670
00:36:28.959 --> 00:36:29.080
you know,

1671
00:36:29.159 --> 00:36:29.399
over,

1672
00:36:29.520 --> 00:36:31.060
he's running about 55 cents.

1673
00:36:31.479 --> 00:36:31.750
Um,

1674
00:36:31.840 --> 00:36:32.800
and the same is true with,

1675
00:36:32.879 --> 00:36:33.149
with,

1676
00:36:33.199 --> 00:36:33.399
uh,

1677
00:36:33.600 --> 00:36:34.280
the Tallarico.

1678
00:36:34.389 --> 00:36:34.879
But the,

1679
00:36:34.959 --> 00:36:37.500
the beauty is you don't have to stay in the market

1680
00:36:38.110 --> 00:36:38.800
until the election.

1681
00:36:38.959 --> 00:36:39.959
You can get in and get out,

1682
00:36:40.080 --> 00:36:40.709
get in and get out.

1683
00:36:40.760 --> 00:36:41.870
You probably do a lot of that.

1684
00:36:42.239 --> 00:36:42.590
And it's,

1685
00:36:42.600 --> 00:36:42.979
uh,

1686
00:36:43.250 --> 00:36:43.439
that,

1687
00:36:43.560 --> 00:36:47.469
that really being nimble and looking at changes and looking and consuming news,

1688
00:36:47.550 --> 00:36:48.399
polling results,

1689
00:36:48.590 --> 00:36:49.739
and fundraising stuff.

1690
00:36:50.310 --> 00:36:50.590
You know,

1691
00:36:50.709 --> 00:36:50.860
the,

1692
00:36:50.989 --> 00:36:51.449
the,

1693
00:36:51.790 --> 00:36:51.909
the,

1694
00:36:51.989 --> 00:36:54.250
the fundraising is pretty lopsided in this race

1695
00:36:54.669 --> 00:36:55.550
favoring the Democrat,

1696
00:36:55.629 --> 00:36:55.949
but,

1697
00:36:56.350 --> 00:36:56.469
you know,

1698
00:36:56.590 --> 00:36:58.280
fundraising is not the only factor,

1699
00:36:58.600 --> 00:37:00.030
and the market is saying he's,

1700
00:37:00.139 --> 00:37:00.270
you know,

1701
00:37:00.389 --> 00:37:00.669
he's,

1702
00:37:00.790 --> 00:37:01.719
he's 45 cents.

1703
00:37:01.899 --> 00:37:02.110
Yeah,

1704
00:37:02.270 --> 00:37:03.060
I tend to be.

1705
00:37:04.149 --> 00:37:05.090
I built a position,

1706
00:37:05.350 --> 00:37:06.790
I built a position on Paxton,

1707
00:37:06.969 --> 00:37:06.979
uh,

1708
00:37:07.139 --> 00:37:07.310
you know,

1709
00:37:07.510 --> 00:37:08.909
being a person who's in Texas,

1710
00:37:09.229 --> 00:37:09.389
you know,

1711
00:37:09.669 --> 00:37:11.149
Paxton from the outside is,

1712
00:37:11.310 --> 00:37:11.929
he's kind of a,

1713
00:37:11.989 --> 00:37:12.340
uh,

1714
00:37:12.830 --> 00:37:13.820
he's got some scandals,

1715
00:37:13.830 --> 00:37:14.969
he's had some problems,

1716
00:37:15.219 --> 00:37:15.350
uh,

1717
00:37:15.590 --> 00:37:15.929
they've

1718
00:37:16.229 --> 00:37:16.870
already voted for him.

1719
00:37:16.975 --> 00:37:18.094
A Couple of times statewide

1720
00:37:18.534 --> 00:37:20.475
because this is a Democratic leaning

1721
00:37:20.975 --> 00:37:21.554
year

1722
00:37:22.175 --> 00:37:24.334
and they're throwing so much money into this race,

1723
00:37:24.695 --> 00:37:25.854
I think there's a lot of optimism,

1724
00:37:25.895 --> 00:37:26.915
but there was a,

1725
00:37:27.135 --> 00:37:27.534
and I,

1726
00:37:27.614 --> 00:37:29.294
this is what I've taken advantage of over the years,

1727
00:37:29.415 --> 00:37:29.794
John,

1728
00:37:30.165 --> 00:37:30.675
is

1729
00:37:30.975 --> 00:37:31.784
looking at a,

1730
00:37:31.895 --> 00:37:34.195
a vicious primary battle

1731
00:37:34.534 --> 00:37:36.794
where you have that Paxton Cornyn situation.

1732
00:37:37.014 --> 00:37:38.254
Those Cornyn people are,

1733
00:37:38.334 --> 00:37:39.334
are crushed.

1734
00:37:39.415 --> 00:37:40.455
They're angry about it,

1735
00:37:40.534 --> 00:37:41.425
they don't like it.

1736
00:37:41.735 --> 00:37:41.895
They're,

1737
00:37:42.014 --> 00:37:43.554
they don't like Paxton right now.

1738
00:37:44.030 --> 00:37:44.270
And,

1739
00:37:44.399 --> 00:37:44.959
and right now,

1740
00:37:45.040 --> 00:37:46.860
who knows what they're saying to the pollsters

1741
00:37:47.399 --> 00:37:49.419
that's out of anger or what they're really gonna do

1742
00:37:49.919 --> 00:37:50.159
in,

1743
00:37:50.239 --> 00:37:50.919
in November.

1744
00:37:51.000 --> 00:37:52.840
And I think a lot of times those people who

1745
00:37:52.840 --> 00:37:56.620
are Republican voters who really liked Cornyn and don't like Paxton

1746
00:37:57.540 --> 00:38:00.040
may come down to that November time and they think to themselves,

1747
00:38:00.159 --> 00:38:00.520
wait a minute,

1748
00:38:00.629 --> 00:38:03.139
am I really gonna give up because of what I'm angry about,

1749
00:38:03.439 --> 00:38:03.629
uh,

1750
00:38:03.709 --> 00:38:03.750
uh,

1751
00:38:03.840 --> 00:38:04.040
you know,

1752
00:38:04.520 --> 00:38:06.550
Democratic Republican control of the Senate,

1753
00:38:06.679 --> 00:38:07.899
which could be on the line here.

1754
00:38:08.500 --> 00:38:10.699
I think enough of them come back that it gets over the line,

1755
00:38:10.780 --> 00:38:11.939
but it is gonna be close.

1756
00:38:12.020 --> 00:38:13.860
I do think he's undervalued at 55%.

1757
00:38:13.939 --> 00:38:16.040
I think it's more like a 75%

1758
00:38:16.219 --> 00:38:17.530
chance he wins this race.

1759
00:38:17.699 --> 00:38:18.739
At least that's how I'm thinking about it.

1760
00:38:18.800 --> 00:38:19.340
Am I crazy?

1761
00:38:20.709 --> 00:38:21.149
I don't,

1762
00:38:21.270 --> 00:38:22.370
I don't think you're crazy.

1763
00:38:22.830 --> 00:38:23.780
You're the oracle.

1764
00:38:24.189 --> 00:38:24.629
So,

1765
00:38:24.870 --> 00:38:25.139
uh,

1766
00:38:25.149 --> 00:38:25.600
I think.

1767
00:38:26.459 --> 00:38:26.620
Uh,

1768
00:38:26.709 --> 00:38:26.969
I,

1769
00:38:27.060 --> 00:38:27.330
I,

1770
00:38:27.360 --> 00:38:27.889
uh,

1771
00:38:28.139 --> 00:38:28.590
uh,

1772
00:38:28.820 --> 00:38:29.689
I don't know,

1773
00:38:29.820 --> 00:38:30.540
for one thing,

1774
00:38:30.620 --> 00:38:31.860
and I'm not in Texas,

1775
00:38:31.939 --> 00:38:34.780
so you don't have to be in Texas to participate in this market.

1776
00:38:35.260 --> 00:38:35.810
Um,

1777
00:38:36.179 --> 00:38:36.340
you know,

1778
00:38:36.419 --> 00:38:36.580
I,

1779
00:38:36.659 --> 00:38:36.899
I,

1780
00:38:36.959 --> 00:38:37.129
uh,

1781
00:38:37.179 --> 00:38:37.300
I,

1782
00:38:37.419 --> 00:38:38.770
I look at the main market,

1783
00:38:38.929 --> 00:38:40.580
which is an interesting one also.

1784
00:38:41.060 --> 00:38:41.540
Um,

1785
00:38:41.659 --> 00:38:41.820
you know,

1786
00:38:41.939 --> 00:38:42.699
you look at Collins,

1787
00:38:42.739 --> 00:38:43.479
is at 40.

1788
00:38:44.330 --> 00:38:45.189
Um,

1789
00:38:45.770 --> 00:38:46.560
and her opponent,

1790
00:38:46.610 --> 00:38:47.050
is it,

1791
00:38:47.169 --> 00:38:48.050
is it 60?

1792
00:38:48.850 --> 00:38:49.139
Uh,

1793
00:38:49.209 --> 00:38:49.330
you know,

1794
00:38:49.379 --> 00:38:49.899
is that,

1795
00:38:50.020 --> 00:38:50.419
is that,

1796
00:38:50.560 --> 00:38:51.100
is that,

1797
00:38:51.139 --> 00:38:51.520
uh,

1798
00:38:51.580 --> 00:38:52.040
really

1799
00:38:52.300 --> 00:38:53.370
what the odds are right now?

1800
00:38:53.560 --> 00:38:53.860
It's,

1801
00:38:53.939 --> 00:38:54.739
it's fascinating,

1802
00:38:54.820 --> 00:38:55.159
right?

1803
00:38:55.540 --> 00:38:57.199
Because Collins is traditionally

1804
00:38:58.030 --> 00:38:58.199
You know,

1805
00:38:58.350 --> 00:39:00.199
come from behind and won her elections,

1806
00:39:00.280 --> 00:39:00.899
but boy.

1807
00:39:02.520 --> 00:39:03.050
If you think,

1808
00:39:03.129 --> 00:39:04.429
if you think Collins is gonna do it again,

1809
00:39:04.459 --> 00:39:06.550
you could snap up Collins for 40 cents.

1810
00:39:07.250 --> 00:39:07.530
Yeah,

1811
00:39:07.699 --> 00:39:08.020
you know,

1812
00:39:08.459 --> 00:39:09.379
that's an interesting one as well,

1813
00:39:09.550 --> 00:39:11.439
because I'll pay $1 if she wins.

1814
00:39:11.620 --> 00:39:11.899
Yeah,

1815
00:39:12.020 --> 00:39:12.219
I mean,

1816
00:39:12.260 --> 00:39:12.379
the,

1817
00:39:12.459 --> 00:39:14.729
the latt with obviously the Plattner thing that happened,

1818
00:39:14.860 --> 00:39:15.899
the markets seemed to see,

1819
00:39:16.060 --> 00:39:17.360
see him dropping out

1820
00:39:17.580 --> 00:39:19.320
as a real positive,

1821
00:39:19.580 --> 00:39:19.760
uh,

1822
00:39:19.780 --> 00:39:20.379
for the Democrats.

1823
00:39:20.419 --> 00:39:21.560
You're bringing in somebody new,

1824
00:39:22.139 --> 00:39:22.260
and,

1825
00:39:22.340 --> 00:39:22.939
and I,

1826
00:39:23.020 --> 00:39:23.340
I was,

1827
00:39:23.419 --> 00:39:23.760
I had,

1828
00:39:23.850 --> 00:39:24.020
you know,

1829
00:39:24.340 --> 00:39:25.449
I don't have a huge position on this,

1830
00:39:25.540 --> 00:39:25.739
John,

1831
00:39:25.820 --> 00:39:26.010
but I,

1832
00:39:26.060 --> 00:39:28.860
I picked up shares of Susan Collins at like 34.

1833
00:39:29.389 --> 00:39:30.300
It's like she's

1834
00:39:30.439 --> 00:39:32.270
beaten back a lot of tough challenges.

1835
00:39:32.360 --> 00:39:32.439
I,

1836
00:39:32.520 --> 00:39:32.840
I don't,

1837
00:39:32.949 --> 00:39:33.189
you know,

1838
00:39:33.600 --> 00:39:34.000
politically,

1839
00:39:34.080 --> 00:39:34.239
like,

1840
00:39:34.320 --> 00:39:34.479
you know,

1841
00:39:34.639 --> 00:39:35.379
she's not my favorite,

1842
00:39:35.479 --> 00:39:35.709
uh,

1843
00:39:35.719 --> 00:39:36.679
senator in the universe,

1844
00:39:36.760 --> 00:39:37.580
but like she's,

1845
00:39:37.800 --> 00:39:37.919
for,

1846
00:39:38.000 --> 00:39:38.469
for Maine,

1847
00:39:38.560 --> 00:39:39.669
she's been a pretty good fit.

1848
00:39:39.760 --> 00:39:43.300
She's gotten over a lot of hard hurdles and a lot of obstacles over the years.

1849
00:39:43.760 --> 00:39:44.600
33,

1850
00:39:44.669 --> 00:39:47.120
34% to me seems way too low.

1851
00:39:47.429 --> 00:39:48.399
45%,

1852
00:39:48.840 --> 00:39:49.080
you know,

1853
00:39:49.280 --> 00:39:50.270
seems maybe about right.

1854
00:39:50.320 --> 00:39:53.500
I still think maybe the underdog in a bluish type of year.

1855
00:39:53.949 --> 00:39:54.120
Uh,

1856
00:39:54.239 --> 00:39:54.560
but that's,

1857
00:39:54.639 --> 00:39:55.439
that's kind of how I'm,

1858
00:39:55.479 --> 00:39:56.080
I'm looking at this.

1859
00:39:56.159 --> 00:39:57.439
I'm now I'm just telling you're selling,

1860
00:39:57.520 --> 00:39:57.879
you're,

1861
00:39:58.199 --> 00:40:00.260
you're selling Collins at 45.

1862
00:40:00.919 --> 00:40:03.560
I don't think I will sell her at 45,

1863
00:40:03.639 --> 00:40:05.379
but I think that's the right price.

1864
00:40:05.479 --> 00:40:05.629
Like,

1865
00:40:05.639 --> 00:40:06.000
I think,

1866
00:40:06.199 --> 00:40:07.120
I think if this was a,

1867
00:40:07.199 --> 00:40:07.560
uh,

1868
00:40:08.080 --> 00:40:08.679
Um,

1869
00:40:08.830 --> 00:40:11.280
an appropriately priced market.

1870
00:40:11.560 --> 00:40:11.739
Sometimes,

1871
00:40:11.879 --> 00:40:12.159
you know,

1872
00:40:12.360 --> 00:40:12.979
you mentioned before,

1873
00:40:13.040 --> 00:40:14.459
like these things aren't perfect.

1874
00:40:14.560 --> 00:40:14.840
Uh,

1875
00:40:14.979 --> 00:40:15.080
they're,

1876
00:40:15.239 --> 00:40:15.479
they're,

1877
00:40:15.600 --> 00:40:17.020
they're predictions of the future,

1878
00:40:17.399 --> 00:40:19.639
but I'm glad they're not perfect because if they were perfect,

1879
00:40:19.719 --> 00:40:20.620
I couldn't make any money.

1880
00:40:20.879 --> 00:40:21.439
I want the,

1881
00:40:21.600 --> 00:40:21.760
I,

1882
00:40:21.840 --> 00:40:23.939
I look for those inefficiencies.

1883
00:40:24.120 --> 00:40:25.280
I think there's a little bit of room there.

1884
00:40:25.320 --> 00:40:26.840
I think there's value on Collins,

1885
00:40:26.889 --> 00:40:27.840
maybe all the way up to,

1886
00:40:27.949 --> 00:40:28.620
to 50.

1887
00:40:28.929 --> 00:40:29.300
Um,

1888
00:40:29.379 --> 00:40:31.610
and so I'm gonna hold that position and,

1889
00:40:31.659 --> 00:40:34.959
and watch the twists and turns of this race because I don't think they came up with a,

1890
00:40:34.979 --> 00:40:35.219
a,

1891
00:40:35.340 --> 00:40:36.820
a super strong challenger either.

1892
00:40:36.899 --> 00:40:38.120
I don't think Jackson's a guy

1893
00:40:38.459 --> 00:40:39.959
who's gonna blow people away.

1894
00:40:40.419 --> 00:40:41.159
At least that's how,

1895
00:40:41.209 --> 00:40:41.290
uh,

1896
00:40:41.350 --> 00:40:41.639
uh,

1897
00:40:41.739 --> 00:40:42.649
how I'm looking at it,

1898
00:40:42.669 --> 00:40:46.169
and I know you have a million voices unpredicted who are going back and forth on this,

1899
00:40:46.500 --> 00:40:48.159
and so I'm out of line with the market a little bit,

1900
00:40:48.219 --> 00:40:48.489
but I,

1901
00:40:48.530 --> 00:40:50.260
I do think there is value in,

1902
00:40:50.340 --> 00:40:51.919
in Collins where she is right now.

1903
00:40:52.889 --> 00:40:53.050
Yeah,

1904
00:40:53.120 --> 00:40:55.760
it'll be fascinating to see if one of them starts to pull away,

1905
00:40:55.889 --> 00:40:56.100
right?

1906
00:40:56.250 --> 00:40:56.409
It's,

1907
00:40:56.500 --> 00:40:57.129
it's gonna be,

1908
00:40:57.290 --> 00:40:57.570
it's,

1909
00:40:57.649 --> 00:40:59.280
it's gonna be very interesting to watch.

1910
00:40:59.810 --> 00:41:03.129
And then you got balance of power in Congress after the 2006,

1911
00:41:03.139 --> 00:41:04.189
2020206 election.

1912
00:41:04.330 --> 00:41:04.409
Yeah,

1913
00:41:04.459 --> 00:41:04.850
we can pull this.

1914
00:41:04.929 --> 00:41:05.649
How do you call that?

1915
00:41:05.850 --> 00:41:06.149
Yeah,

1916
00:41:06.449 --> 00:41:06.689
uh,

1917
00:41:06.810 --> 00:41:07.750
I have a,

1918
00:41:07.770 --> 00:41:10.239
a pretty large position on Democrats to win the House.

1919
00:41:10.379 --> 00:41:10.689
Uh,

1920
00:41:10.770 --> 00:41:11.239
I think,

1921
00:41:11.360 --> 00:41:11.570
you know,

1922
00:41:11.649 --> 00:41:13.429
I was buying that in the

1923
00:41:13.729 --> 00:41:15.709
high 19950s and low 191960s.

1924
00:41:15.810 --> 00:41:16.010
Um,

1925
00:41:16.090 --> 00:41:17.120
it's now up into the,

1926
00:41:17.209 --> 00:41:18.330
what are we with the mid.

1927
00:41:18.570 --> 00:41:18.729
Uh,

1928
00:41:18.770 --> 00:41:20.129
which this is balance of Congress.

1929
00:41:20.209 --> 00:41:20.270
Oh,

1930
00:41:20.330 --> 00:41:20.530
this is,

1931
00:41:20.570 --> 00:41:20.719
uh,

1932
00:41:20.770 --> 00:41:23.100
this is the one we have up right now from predicted

1933
00:41:23.409 --> 00:41:23.629
is,

1934
00:41:23.689 --> 00:41:23.889
uh,

1935
00:41:23.959 --> 00:41:25.050
the Democratic House and Senate,

1936
00:41:25.090 --> 00:41:25.169
the,

1937
00:41:25.290 --> 00:41:26.050
the splits,

1938
00:41:26.129 --> 00:41:27.360
which one of their four options,

1939
00:41:27.409 --> 00:41:27.669
yeah.

1940
00:41:27.969 --> 00:41:28.370
Um,

1941
00:41:28.449 --> 00:41:28.850
I,

1942
00:41:28.899 --> 00:41:29.570
uh,

1943
00:41:30.129 --> 00:41:30.959
bought the house,

1944
00:41:31.530 --> 00:41:31.699
uh,

1945
00:41:31.810 --> 00:41:31.929
you know,

1946
00:41:32.050 --> 00:41:33.409
back in the high 50s,

1947
00:41:33.479 --> 00:41:34.250
low 60s,

1948
00:41:34.580 --> 00:41:35.949
just really because of history,

1949
00:41:36.050 --> 00:41:36.250
you know,

1950
00:41:36.370 --> 00:41:36.649
there's just,

1951
00:41:36.709 --> 00:41:37.830
it's just very difficult,

1952
00:41:37.840 --> 00:41:39.350
even if everything's going swimmingly,

1953
00:41:39.360 --> 00:41:39.530
uh,

1954
00:41:39.739 --> 00:41:41.189
to win in these years.

1955
00:41:41.500 --> 00:41:41.689
Uh,

1956
00:41:41.810 --> 00:41:45.649
but now it's up to mid 80s is where it's been sitting for a while,

1957
00:41:45.729 --> 00:41:46.669
which I think is

1958
00:41:47.060 --> 00:41:47.600
about right.

1959
00:41:47.850 --> 00:41:48.010
You know,

1960
00:41:48.129 --> 00:41:48.209
I,

1961
00:41:48.290 --> 00:41:48.570
I don't think.

1962
00:41:48.639 --> 00:41:49.879
It's a sure thing they're going to win.

1963
00:41:50.000 --> 00:41:52.350
Maybe it's even a little higher for them to win the House.

1964
00:41:52.719 --> 00:41:53.239
The Senate,

1965
00:41:53.280 --> 00:41:53.709
I feel like,

1966
00:41:53.719 --> 00:41:55.300
is a little pessimistic

1967
00:41:55.719 --> 00:41:59.000
for Republicans in the 50/50 type of range.

1968
00:41:59.159 --> 00:42:00.850
Might be a little bit above that right now.

1969
00:42:01.000 --> 00:42:02.399
I don't know if we have the Senate individually,

1970
00:42:02.439 --> 00:42:02.949
we could bring up.

1971
00:42:02.969 --> 00:42:03.280
If not,

1972
00:42:03.439 --> 00:42:03.709
it's,

1973
00:42:04.000 --> 00:42:04.850
I don't know if the last time you saw it,

1974
00:42:04.929 --> 00:42:05.040
John,

1975
00:42:05.120 --> 00:42:06.000
was it 53,

1976
00:42:06.060 --> 00:42:06.659
54

1977
00:42:07.040 --> 00:42:09.199
for Republicans to win in that vicinity.

1978
00:42:09.629 --> 00:42:09.830
I,

1979
00:42:09.909 --> 00:42:10.110
I,

1980
00:42:10.229 --> 00:42:10.709
I don't know,

1981
00:42:10.790 --> 00:42:10.949
I,

1982
00:42:11.100 --> 00:42:11.979
just because of this,

1983
00:42:12.229 --> 00:42:15.739
what's fascinating about the Senate is like you look at the structure of it,

1984
00:42:15.750 --> 00:42:16.179
and it's,

1985
00:42:16.429 --> 00:42:17.229
it's not a,

1986
00:42:17.310 --> 00:42:20.469
it's not like the House where it's uh vibes can take over for a couple of years.

1987
00:42:20.550 --> 00:42:22.379
A lot of these races are locked in,

1988
00:42:22.669 --> 00:42:23.790
and when you look at what's available,

1989
00:42:23.870 --> 00:42:26.469
it would really have to be kind of catastrophic circumstances where

1990
00:42:26.469 --> 00:42:30.330
you're losing Texas and Ohio and things like this for Republicans.

1991
00:42:30.949 --> 00:42:33.290
I tend to think that I'm a little more optimistic,

1992
00:42:33.310 --> 00:42:33.469
again,

1993
00:42:33.550 --> 00:42:38.929
maybe into the 70 to 72 type of range is where I feel like the market should be.

1994
00:42:39.310 --> 00:42:39.810
Uh,

1995
00:42:40.030 --> 00:42:40.469
but it's,

1996
00:42:40.550 --> 00:42:41.979
I've seen it in the 50s and it,

1997
00:42:42.070 --> 00:42:42.389
it,

1998
00:42:42.870 --> 00:42:43.300
I don't have a,

1999
00:42:43.429 --> 00:42:45.139
I have a bigger position on the Democrats in the

2000
00:42:45.139 --> 00:42:46.449
House than I do the Republicans in the Senate,

2001
00:42:46.510 --> 00:42:47.959
but that's kind of where I think that lands.

2002
00:42:48.070 --> 00:42:48.389
Does that,

2003
00:42:48.590 --> 00:42:49.229
what do you think of that?

2004
00:42:49.389 --> 00:42:49.820
And what do you,

2005
00:42:49.870 --> 00:42:51.530
and what are you thinking in terms of,

2006
00:42:51.669 --> 00:42:52.209
um,

2007
00:42:52.989 --> 00:42:53.770
Democratic House,

2008
00:42:53.790 --> 00:42:54.310
Republican Senate?

2009
00:42:54.360 --> 00:42:55.739
What's the right price for that?

2010
00:42:56.070 --> 00:42:56.189
Uh,

2011
00:42:56.270 --> 00:42:57.419
do we have that 40 cents?

2012
00:42:57.870 --> 00:42:58.060
Let me,

2013
00:42:58.110 --> 00:42:59.060
let me see that chart one more time.

2014
00:42:59.310 --> 00:43:02.310
What will be the balance of power in Congress after the 2026 election?

2015
00:43:02.389 --> 00:43:03.389
So Democratic House,

2016
00:43:03.790 --> 00:43:04.469
Republican Senate.

2017
00:43:04.989 --> 00:43:06.030
My standard play on this,

2018
00:43:06.129 --> 00:43:06.699
on this market,

2019
00:43:06.750 --> 00:43:07.350
honestly,

2020
00:43:07.510 --> 00:43:07.979
uh,

2021
00:43:08.169 --> 00:43:08.429
John,

2022
00:43:08.469 --> 00:43:09.139
is to,

2023
00:43:09.189 --> 00:43:09.500
uh,

2024
00:43:09.709 --> 00:43:10.409
to go

2025
00:43:10.790 --> 00:43:11.439
no

2026
00:43:11.750 --> 00:43:14.379
on Republican House Democratic Senate,

2027
00:43:14.590 --> 00:43:16.209
which is usually pretty low.

2028
00:43:16.310 --> 00:43:16.500
Uh,

2029
00:43:16.550 --> 00:43:16.830
I don't know,

2030
00:43:16.949 --> 00:43:18.840
I don't think we have it checked on this particular market,

2031
00:43:18.949 --> 00:43:19.179
but,

2032
00:43:19.389 --> 00:43:19.540
uh,

2033
00:43:19.590 --> 00:43:20.830
it's gonna be low at this point.

2034
00:43:20.909 --> 00:43:21.030
I,

2035
00:43:21.110 --> 00:43:21.510
I bought it,

2036
00:43:21.629 --> 00:43:22.790
I've been buying that for a while,

2037
00:43:22.909 --> 00:43:22.979
yeah,

2038
00:43:23.030 --> 00:43:23.909
it's really low right now,

2039
00:43:24.070 --> 00:43:27.750
it's almost to zero because there's just no way that one can happen.

2040
00:43:27.870 --> 00:43:28.969
Like there's no way.

2041
00:43:29.084 --> 00:43:32.145
If it's a good enough year for Republican or for Democrats,

2042
00:43:32.445 --> 00:43:32.965
uh,

2043
00:43:33.125 --> 00:43:33.875
to win the Senate,

2044
00:43:33.925 --> 00:43:35.504
there's no way they don't also win the House.

2045
00:43:36.044 --> 00:43:38.145
So I start off there and I start narrowing,

2046
00:43:38.165 --> 00:43:38.274
uh,

2047
00:43:38.324 --> 00:43:40.114
when it comes to these combinations,

2048
00:43:40.205 --> 00:43:41.965
that's the way I think about it as a traitor.

2049
00:43:42.195 --> 00:43:42.245
I,

2050
00:43:42.324 --> 00:43:42.364
I,

2051
00:43:42.445 --> 00:43:42.635
I,

2052
00:43:42.725 --> 00:43:42.885
I,

2053
00:43:42.965 --> 00:43:43.425
I wanna

2054
00:43:43.804 --> 00:43:44.475
eliminate,

2055
00:43:44.635 --> 00:43:44.965
we have a,

2056
00:43:45.044 --> 00:43:45.245
uh,

2057
00:43:45.314 --> 00:43:47.395
in this predictable constitution I mentioned earlier,

2058
00:43:47.725 --> 00:43:49.844
our Third Amendment to the predictable Constitution is,

2059
00:43:49.925 --> 00:43:51.985
it's easier to predict what will not happen

2060
00:43:52.405 --> 00:43:53.344
than what will happen.

2061
00:43:53.725 --> 00:43:54.784
And so when I'm not sure

2062
00:43:55.004 --> 00:43:55.485
in a market,

2063
00:43:55.564 --> 00:43:56.044
that's what I do.

2064
00:43:56.104 --> 00:43:58.304
I try to eliminate those externalities.

2065
00:43:59.280 --> 00:43:59.989
Interesting.

2066
00:44:00.239 --> 00:44:00.310
Well,

2067
00:44:00.360 --> 00:44:00.979
that's good.

2068
00:44:01.280 --> 00:44:01.899
That's good.

2069
00:44:02.360 --> 00:44:03.560
I'm gonna follow what you're,

2070
00:44:03.840 --> 00:44:05.500
I'm gonna follow your predictions.

2071
00:44:05.840 --> 00:44:05.959
Well,

2072
00:44:06.139 --> 00:44:07.310
and now this is like a therapy session.

2073
00:44:07.360 --> 00:44:08.840
Now I'm just running my positions by you,

2074
00:44:08.919 --> 00:44:09.030
uh,

2075
00:44:09.239 --> 00:44:10.629
so I don't mean to take up all your time with this,

2076
00:44:10.689 --> 00:44:12.060
but this has been fascinating conversation.

2077
00:44:12.879 --> 00:44:13.080
Um,

2078
00:44:13.639 --> 00:44:15.310
do you have a couple more minutes to hang out with our,

2079
00:44:15.360 --> 00:44:15.469
uh,

2080
00:44:15.600 --> 00:44:17.159
premium subscribers and answer a few questions?

2081
00:44:17.199 --> 00:44:18.340
I know they got a bunch of them.

2082
00:44:18.760 --> 00:44:19.080
I have a million.

2083
00:44:19.360 --> 00:44:19.479
Moore,

2084
00:44:19.550 --> 00:44:20.679
I could talk to you all day about this,

2085
00:44:20.760 --> 00:44:20.919
John,

2086
00:44:20.959 --> 00:44:22.229
but this has been a fantastic,

2087
00:44:22.280 --> 00:44:23.290
uh,

2088
00:44:23.320 --> 00:44:23.330
uh,

2089
00:44:23.429 --> 00:44:23.600
conversation,

2090
00:44:23.610 --> 00:44:25.350
and I really appreciate you taking the time.

2091
00:44:25.679 --> 00:44:27.320
We're talking to John Aristotle Phillips,

2092
00:44:27.399 --> 00:44:29.139
the co-founder and CEO of PredictI.

2093
00:44:29.479 --> 00:44:31.520
It's a great place to go and get political information.

2094
00:44:31.560 --> 00:44:32.719
It is more focused on politics,

2095
00:44:32.790 --> 00:44:33.159
which of course,

2096
00:44:33.199 --> 00:44:33.360
is,

2097
00:44:33.429 --> 00:44:35.659
is my passion when it comes to prediction markets.

2098
00:44:35.830 --> 00:44:36.840
I like some of the other stuff too.

2099
00:44:36.919 --> 00:44:37.909
I like to dabble here and there,

2100
00:44:37.959 --> 00:44:38.219
but

2101
00:44:38.439 --> 00:44:39.719
it's always been politics for me and,

2102
00:44:39.760 --> 00:44:40.590
and Predicted it's been a,

2103
00:44:40.669 --> 00:44:41.750
a huge part of,

2104
00:44:41.780 --> 00:44:42.070
uh,

2105
00:44:42.149 --> 00:44:42.750
of my,

2106
00:44:42.780 --> 00:44:43.110
uh,

2107
00:44:43.199 --> 00:44:43.439
you know,

2108
00:44:43.520 --> 00:44:44.500
my life in this world.

2109
00:44:44.560 --> 00:44:45.270
It's helped me,

2110
00:44:45.320 --> 00:44:45.560
uh,

2111
00:44:45.679 --> 00:44:45.800
you know,

2112
00:44:46.000 --> 00:44:46.840
start the show back,

2113
00:44:46.879 --> 00:44:47.100
uh,

2114
00:44:47.110 --> 00:44:47.679
when we did.

2115
00:44:48.239 --> 00:44:48.510
And,

2116
00:44:48.520 --> 00:44:48.709
uh,

2117
00:44:48.719 --> 00:44:49.040
frankly,

2118
00:44:49.120 --> 00:44:49.280
uh,

2119
00:44:49.320 --> 00:44:49.889
it's been a nice,

2120
00:44:49.979 --> 00:44:50.120
uh,

2121
00:44:50.159 --> 00:44:50.909
we've had a nice,

2122
00:44:51.280 --> 00:44:52.060
gone on a few vacations,

2123
00:44:52.320 --> 00:44:52.629
uh,

2124
00:44:52.639 --> 00:44:55.219
thanks to uh the other traders unpredicted as well.

2125
00:44:55.639 --> 00:44:55.850
Uh,

2126
00:44:55.919 --> 00:44:58.870
so we really appreciate you putting all this together and dealing with the

2127
00:44:58.870 --> 00:45:00.439
government and all the stuff you've had to do over the years,

2128
00:45:00.550 --> 00:45:00.719
John.

2129
00:45:00.800 --> 00:45:01.379
Thanks so much.

2130
00:45:02.199 --> 00:45:03.120
Thank you for having me on.

2131
00:45:03.250 --> 00:45:03.810
I appreciate it.

2132
00:45:03.889 --> 00:45:04.010
All right,

2133
00:45:04.080 --> 00:45:04.570
we're gonna be back,

2134
00:45:04.649 --> 00:45:05.689
uh,

2135
00:45:05.820 --> 00:45:06.030
uh,

2136
00:45:06.050 --> 00:45:06.209
tomorrow.

2137
00:45:06.290 --> 00:45:07.610
I might do some live streaming tonight,

2138
00:45:07.770 --> 00:45:07.959
uh,

2139
00:45:08.000 --> 00:45:08.939
on the Tennessee,

2140
00:45:09.290 --> 00:45:09.409
uh,

2141
00:45:09.449 --> 00:45:11.530
primary because that's another one.

2142
00:45:12.090 --> 00:45:13.159
Governor race is,

2143
00:45:13.199 --> 00:45:16.550
is really turning out to be a little bit more interesting than I thought it would be.

2144
00:45:16.879 --> 00:45:17.550
So we'll look at that,

2145
00:45:17.629 --> 00:45:18.449
we'll walk through those.

2146
00:45:18.550 --> 00:45:18.669
Again,

2147
00:45:18.750 --> 00:45:22.060
we try to watch those results come out live as they happen

2148
00:45:22.270 --> 00:45:25.300
and look for those positions to get into as the results,

2149
00:45:25.310 --> 00:45:25.540
uh,

2150
00:45:25.550 --> 00:45:26.449
kind of trickle out.

2151
00:45:26.590 --> 00:45:27.510
There are opportunities,

2152
00:45:27.550 --> 00:45:28.209
as we found

2153
00:45:28.580 --> 00:45:29.540
on Tuesday with the,

2154
00:45:29.550 --> 00:45:29.739
uh,

2155
00:45:29.750 --> 00:45:29.989
Haley,

2156
00:45:30.110 --> 00:45:30.780
Hail Mary,

2157
00:45:30.790 --> 00:45:30.939
uh,

2158
00:45:30.949 --> 00:45:31.459
that we did very,

2159
00:45:31.510 --> 00:45:32.020
very well on.

2160
00:45:32.070 --> 00:45:32.820
So join us,

2161
00:45:33.070 --> 00:45:33.379
uh,

2162
00:45:33.389 --> 00:45:34.030
tonight for a little bit of that.

2163
00:45:34.304 --> 00:45:36.544
And uh we will also be back

2164
00:45:36.784 --> 00:45:37.185
uh next week.

2165
00:45:37.225 --> 00:45:40.395
There's a whole another big slate of uh pre elections as well.

2166
00:45:40.504 --> 00:45:41.784
So if you go to predictableShow.com,

2167
00:45:41.864 --> 00:45:42.905
not only can you get the Q&A

2168
00:45:43.225 --> 00:45:44.334
with John Aristotle Phillips,

2169
00:45:44.385 --> 00:45:46.254
but you also can get all of my positions.

2170
00:45:46.264 --> 00:45:47.425
We're doing a rollout of those,

2171
00:45:47.504 --> 00:45:51.465
sort of an album release party tomorrow where you'll get all my predictions and

2172
00:45:51.745 --> 00:45:53.044
see how terrible some of them are.

2173
00:45:53.225 --> 00:45:54.054
I think they're mostly good,

2174
00:45:54.125 --> 00:45:55.574
but you can make fun of me all you want.

2175
00:45:55.824 --> 00:45:55.895
Uh,

2176
00:45:55.985 --> 00:45:58.344
so go to predictableShow.com and become a premium member.

2177
00:45:58.544 --> 00:45:59.584
Thanks so much for joining us.

2178
00:45:59.705 --> 00:46:00.625
We will see you next time.