Welcome to Predictable with Stu.
It's my 3rd show of the day.
You gotta understand.
Uh,
I had Megyn Kelly,
uh,
earlier today.
It was a great,
uh,
show.
Make sure to check that one out.
Uh,
Stu and Dave do America,
now doing Predictable with Stu,
and I'm doing this,
uh,
live stream for the,
uh,
wonderful people over at Substacks,
which you can access this month for free.
Uh,
and,
you know,
they get to see me screw up when I can't,
I trip over my words over and over again and start over.
So that's where we are.
Uh,
that's,
that's life right now,
and I'm happy about it because tomorrow
we've got 5 different primaries,
5 of them.
You know how many opportunities there are to make some money on this,
on these elections and their outcomes.
Also,
it's gonna give us a great sense as to
who's going to win.
And who's going to lose.
So we'll get into that.
We have some great stuff on Spider-Man and the box office returns there.
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in their box office returns if you,
if,
if you're at the right scenario,
we'll get into that.
And we have some great questions from you,
uh,
your comments as well.
We did a,
a premium subscriber live chat last night with lots of great thoughts,
lots of great recommendations on new markets and stuff like that.
We'll get into that here in just a little bit.
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OK,
lots of primaries are coming up.
Let me give you the schedule.
I'm gonna look ahead a little bit here,
and we're gonna look at what we can get done tomorrow,
August 4th.
We have Kansas,
Michigan,
Missouri,
Virginia,
and Washington.
Then the very,
uh,
this is like when,
uh,
we get late in the NFL season,
they start putting games on like Wednesdays for some reason.
We have the Thursday,
August 6th primary in Tennessee.
We have the August 8th,
the Saturday,
uh,
primary in Hawaii,
and then August 11th is a week away,
another really big week.
Connecticut,
Minnesota,
Vermont,
Wisconsin,
and South Carolina,
that special US Senate Republican primary that because of Lindsey Graham
passing away.
That's what we have
to look forward to.
And we have,
you know,
a bunch of races.
It's kind of,
there's one way to look at this,
right?
You can look at it from a perspective of,
uh,
you know,
how are we gonna learn about the,
the election and what's coming up because that's,
you know,
look,
it's,
as much as I like
going on prediction markets and making money on prediction markets,
it's not gonna be the most important thing.
The most important thing
is what happens to the country,
and,
uh,
that's what we watch most closely here.
Uh,
but we do want to look for those opportunities.
So,
when you talk about a race like,
um,
maybe the most,
one of the most important races in the country right now,
we're gonna talk about this in a second,
the Michigan Democratic Senate primary is a massive one.
And there's all sorts of,
uh,
all sorts of,
uh,
different ramifications from that.
And then the other side we'll look for markets that just,
you know,
look,
might not be as interesting to the everyday person,
but a place an opportunity
for you to make a little money on prediction markets.
So,
let's start with this Michigan Senate primary race.
We've done a decent amount of coverage on this,
and this is a,
it's a big one.
This is,
of course,
the,
uh,
Abdul El Sayed versus Haley Stevens race.
And what a roller coaster ride
this has been.
If you go,
this is like the main,
um,
sort of,
uh,
outline of this race,
which has,
uh,
Mallory,
Mallory McMorrow leading from,
I don't know,
fall 2025
to April 2026.
Now she's not even in the race anymore.
She was leading all that time.
Now she's not even in the race.
She's dropped out.
The two candidates that are big names
that are left are Abdul El Sayed and Haley Stevens.
Uh,
Abdul El Sayed,
uh,
took that lead in April or May
and has held it and was getting as high as like the mid to high 80s.
Uh,
and then had a couple around the time where we had,
uh,
their debates,
there were a couple of polls that came out in,
in a recent poll,
only a couple of weeks ago,
had Haley Stevens up
by 7%.
And you see how that race tightened and the
prediction markets as we're looking at the chart.
Give me the last,
uh,
month or so here,
Adam,
if we could on this chart.
Um,
so this is what it looked like.
You see,
go back to the beginning of this,
you see,
uh,
you know,
early July.
Um,
70,
or actually 85% for Abudul El Sayyed.
It kind of narrows down together a little bit as we follow the line,
follow the line down to 66% for El Sayed,
pops back up in El Sayyed's favor more,
back to 82.9%,
and drops down again
to 64.4%.
Haley Stevens.
36% chance.
And this is,
I would say how it's being presented in the media,
uh,
as a really close call.
You see now,
however,
Abdul El Sayyed
has risen all the way up to now 98.4%
a day before this primary.
Now,
I will tell you,
and then we've talked about this a little bit before,
I recommended,
uh,
El Sayed as the guy,
um,
a while ago.
I got a little nervous about that,
frankly,
over time.
I didn't make a huge position on Abdul El Sayed,
but I did have him,
um,
as a,
a,
a favorite,
um,
and held him through a lot of these ups and downs,
but didn't grow my position all that much.
I will be honest with you,
yesterday,
I sold
all my shares
in Abdul El Sayed.
Why?
There's just nothing left.
I mean,
I rode that thing up 2030 points,
and now it's at 97.
And while I still believe Abdul Sayed will probably win this election,
there have been multiple polls.
Do I have them here in front of me?
Uh,
did I pull those polls?
I think I did.
I did somewhere.
Let's see if I can find them real quick.
Uh,
yeah,
here we go.
Um,
the average now,
uh,
Decision desk has it at
a 53 to 40 average,
uh,
of the poll.
And I don't know if that,
that's if the 7-point Haley Stevens lead is in that average because that was,
uh,
that was a few weeks ago.
But I mean,
this race has moved a lot,
is my point,
and it moved so much that people are basically 100% certain,
98.4% certain
that he is going to win
this race.
I would not recommend
going into this market on Al Sayed at this point.
I think it is now at the level where it is so positive for El Sayed
that there's just no profit there.
I rode this up,
we,
we rode this up a couple dozen points,
whatever it was,
uh,
and then we sold the shares yesterday.
I sold every single one of them at 97.
Uh,
because I,
I just didn't see,
you know,
the last 3 points not really worth it.
I,
this race is still presented as a pretty close one.
And while I don't think,
Uh,
Al Sayed's going to lose.
I will say this,
uh,
and Decision Desk has a great graphic here
right there
of,
uh,
of what the spending and ad support has been in this race.
This is incredible.
Abdul Sayed has spent $7.3 million
OK?
It's a decent amount of cash for a Senate race.
Other candidates have put $9.7 million into this race.
I assume that's mostly McMorrow.
Haley Stevens,
you know,
she's been,
and this has been a topic of all the debates.
She's got AIPAC support and all the establishment support,
$63.9 million.09 times,
9 times,
9 times as much money
has gone in for Haley Stevens.
So the fact that she could be
competitive in this race would not be a huge surprise.
I mean,
98% certainty is too certain
in this race for me.
What I'm gonna say next
is a,
is,
is an interesting thing that I like to do.
I've made a decent amount of profit on El Sayed already.
I look at this race now and I see
Haley Stevens,
who's had tons and tons of money put behind her.
This has been a close race the entire time.
There was a poll where she led by 7 points just a couple of weeks ago.
The question now is,
can she at least look competitive?
For 20 minutes.
Polls close,
you get about a 20-minute gap there where people are votes are coming in
and it could be a certain batch that's a little more favorable to Stevens.
Let's just say we're 10% of the vote in and Haley Stevens is
up by 2%,
down by 2%,
right there,
competitive.
There's no way
that's sticking at 1%
during that time.
And if I can get in
with a little bit of my profit,
take a little slice out of that,
and dabble in,
yes,
pro Haley Stevens money here.
We're talking
buying her at 1 cent,
$1.5
you know,
you can get 1000 shares for $10.15 dollars.
And,
you know,
what we always say here is when we do things like this,
cause I don't necessarily think she's gonna win this race,
and I don't
typically like taking positions that
If I'm not around my computer,
I have to worry about,
right?
I like to take positions that,
that will resolve correctly at the end.
I'm not
super confident that Haley's Stevens is gonna win this race by any means.
This is not me saying
she's gonna win.
But
is there a chance that you could get in there and if,
if things fall the right way,
they probably won't.
But if they do,
can that 1.4% purchase turn into 578 cents,
10 cents,
20 cents?
It's possible.
And what I would do in this situation is something we call laddering.
If you buy at 1 cent,
let's say you buy it $1.5.
Uh,
the easiest way to think about this is to
immediately put a sale for half of your shares
at 3 cents.
And,
uh,
why?
Because if it goes up to 3 just for a second,
your shares get purchased and you pay for that
entire investment and now you're playing with house money.
OK?
If you don't know what I'm talking about,
don't worry about it.
You're,
you know,
you don't need to.
This is sort of an
advanced
fun tactic.
You can totally not participate in this if you,
if you want,
but
if you don't want to participate in it,
that's fine.
But what I would say to people who maybe have,
have dabbled in this world a little bit already,
you buy about 1 cent,
$1.5
you wait for those things,
those,
uh,
the floodgates of votes to come out.
We hope for an early return.
A lot of times,
the more progressive areas are a little slower to return.
And uh we see that in cities often,
where the cities are a little slower to return.
If we get some of those more rural,
middle of the road areas to return,
maybe Stevens leads for a little while,
that thing pops up a little bit,
and you could double,
triple,
quadruple your amount,
who knows?
So,
Just a little thing to think about if you're looking to be a little playful.
If you wanna get a little spicy
with Haley Stevens,
which again,
sounds weird,
but,
you know,
that's,
that's what this show is.
You're watching a show about prediction markets,
you're weird too.
You're part of the problem.
I hope you recognize that.
OK.
So by the way,
if you uh want to watch,
uh,
so tomorrow,
we,
we don't have a normal episode on these big primary days.
What we'll typically do is do live streams of the results in place of that.
So join us over there tomorrow.
I'll probably post a little bit of a preview,
uh,
you know,
of something else that I might see,
something a little different than we're talking about today,
uh,
tomorrow's program.
So if you're listening on the audio feed,
you'll get something tomorrow.
But I wanna just direct you to
YouTube
at predictable show,
um,
the sub stack predictableShow.com.
Any of the social media stuff,
we'll get a live feed out to,
to you guys and,
you know,
watch these results come in.
And if this happens,
we'll,
I'll trade it with you live.
You'll see me doing it
right in front of you.
It's fun,
if nothing else.
So that's anyway,
uh,
kind of a long shot,
uh,
fun play for tomorrow if you want to get involved in that.
Let me give you some of the other high-profile races
as we go.
Missouri 01.
This is,
uh,
the big rematch in Saint Louis
between Wesley Bell and Corey Bush.
You know who Corey Bush is probably.
It's funny,
Wesley Bell is the actual congressman,
uh,
but Corey Bush is a lot more famous.
Uh,
who will win this?
Corey Bush,
uh,
has trailed most of the time.
Uh,
uh,
give me the last month here though,
Adam.
If you look over the last month,
things have changed quite a bit.
Uh,
Corey Bush led,
uh,
in the beginning of July,
and really up until about late July.
Uh,
and then the,
the tides have turned.
Oh,
how the turns have tabled.
And now Wesley Bell is a 67% favorite over Corey Bush at 32%.
Uh,
to be honest with you about this race,
I think it's a fascinating one.
And there are real opportunities here.
This would typically,
especially when we've been looking at our thesis statements that we have,
we will come up with these at a time,
kind of making rules for ourselves on the fly.
What's a current thesis statement?
One of the thesis statements that we have right now is
all things being equal,
particularly in,
in smaller races,
congressional seats as opposed to a wide state.
If Democrats have the opportunity,
they're gonna take the craziest
wild-eyed socialist person
in a Democratic primary.
That's pretty much what's gonna happen.
This is a D +27 district,
so whoever wins this primary is winning this race.
This is
not a competitive race,
so it doesn't matter.
You don't have to worry about electability here.
Any Democrat's going to win.
And Corey Bush is the obvious pick here.
She's the most insane.
Now,
she was so insane last time,
she actually lost to Wesley Bell,
who is
not exactly a conservative candidate or a moderate,
but Corey Bush will go basically farther than
almost anyone else when you're talking about left-wing,
uh,
you know,
some would call insanity.
All that being said,
The one issue I have here
is that Corey Bush is,
uh,
almost over the line for the average person.
She is
so
nuts.
And I say this not even based on policy cause they don't care how socialist she is,
but she's just a little bit of a whack a doodle.
And,
and a lot of people don't like voting for whackadoooodles.
Uh,
that being said,
I do feel like the value is on her here.
If I was,
I,
and I probably will take a small marker or a small position.
On
Corey Bush going into this because I do think there's a chance she wins this.
Um,
you know,
there's not a ton of polling,
uh,
in this race,
and Wesley Bell has raised a lot of money,
which is,
I think,
the large reason why,
uh,
he is seen as the heavy favorite.
He's raised over $5 million.
Uh,
she's raised about $3 million which is still
pretty strong.
She's got pretty strong grassroots support from around the country.
The question is,
does it help in this particular district?
So,
uh,
again,
show me that market one more time if you could,
Adam,
uh,
Missouri 01.
Uh,
this is the Corey Bush,
you see her at
32%.
There's some value there.
I,
I don't know.
I think she's probably low 40
to 45% chance of winning this race.
She's probably still the underdog.
I would
expect to lose this one,
but I'm kind of tempted by 30%
and a chance
to,
uh,
to make,
you know,
58 or 68 cents on every 32 cents I invest.
That's a nice profit margin and we're only again talking about a day.
So I'll watch that one and I will be watching
this one very closely as votes come out to see
what happens and what vote is remaining.
Remember,
Corey Bush will probably start that race down.
Uh,
we'll see.
You never know with the way votes come out,
but,
uh,
that will probably be the way we will look at it.
We'll watch that
and kind of give you the other updates as we go.
Uh,
Michigan Republican primary for governor is another interesting race.
This is John James and Perry Johnson.
I do expect James to win this race.
Do we have that one?
This is the Michigan
Republican primary for governor.
Um,
we're,
we're pulling that one up.
John James has,
uh,
raised $6 million.
Perry Johnson's raised $11 million mostly self-funded.
So you got the businessman
versus James,
who's kind of like the establishment guy.
Oh yeah,
this is really high now,
96%.
Gosh,
I was just watching this a couple of weeks ago
and it was pretty close.
James,
I,
I always think of James as a pretty good candidate,
uh,
you know,
he's a pretty good Republican for a bluish type state.
I think he,
you know,
again,
talking about aesthetics here does pretty well.
He presents well,
he speaks well,
he's,
uh,
you know,
come very,
very close to Michigan multiple times.
Perry Johnson is a challenger.
At 96% though,
I gotta be honest,
I don't see that much value,
uh,
in this one,
but
This has been lower previously.
OK,
uh,
let me give you Michigan 13.
This is,
uh,
a very strange race between an incumbent and a
sort of socialist challenger.
Um,
this is Shri Thanadar.
I don't even know how to pronounce it.
He's a congressman.
I don't know if I've ever heard of the guy,
although I did see him on social media and he looks like,
he's like 20 years old and he's 70.
So I don't know,
uh,
but that's,
he's 70 years old,
he looks like he's 20 years old.
This is,
uh,
Michigan 13,
uh,
outside of Detroit.
Uh,
right now,
we see Donovan McKinney,
the challenger at 86%,
and this is just rising as well.
Wow,
these,
I feel like what's happening is a lot of people who are
mildly sure about this are pouring money into these races at
the last minute and they're getting more and more sure.
I think almost too sure of themselves.
But again,
I mean,
McKinney's only,
has not raised 20% of the money.
Uh,
that has happened.
Again,
this is another Democrat plus 22 districts,
so really whoever wins this is gonna be your congressman.
But again,
this is another opportunity to say,
hey,
the socialist,
they're,
these guys are both super liberal.
I mean,
it's hard to even say,
uh,
that this is a socialist versus establishment
race because they're both
way out there.
But McKinney
is kind of known as a DSA guy
and now all the way up at 86%.
Questionable value,
we're gonna watch that one revealed in,
in real time.
Um,
what else do we have?
Do we have Michigan 12,
Adam?
We can look at that one as well if you have it.
Uh,
I don't know if you do.
That's in my stack,
but I can't remember if I gave that one to you,
or we can move to Tennessee Governor Governor.
That's fine too.
Whatever,
whatever you have up is,
is ready to go.
We had a couple more races to go through.
I just want to hit these before we get out.
Uh,
Michigan 12.
0,
this is Rashida to leave.
That's why I left this one out.
She's at 99%.
Uh,
what,
if you go back,
Adam,
can you zoom in to the last like month or so?
Uh,
I wanted,
I did wind up getting a few shares of her around July 19th or 18th,
going in that range.
Yeah,
she's at 96% there.
It's only 4% over a few weeks.
It's not an amazing return,
but I didn't think there's any chance
Rashida Talib was going to lose this race,
and
now it's gone from 96% to 99%.
So,
not,
not much entry.
I think I may have already sold out of that position.
All right,
Tennessee Governor,
this is one I do think there's a little bit more value in.
Uh,
you know,
there's a,
there's some opposition to Marsha Blackburn.
It's funny,
I've been around,
I,
I know I'm old because I've been around
long enough that Marsha Blackburn has gone from
conservative,
uh,
firebrand and challenger and
against the establishment to now kind of the establishment.
But,
uh,
this is the race in Tennessee.
Uh,
Marsha,
so
this is an interesting race.
You see,
it's Marsha Blackburn versus John Rose.
Rose is,
uh,
is the challenger here.
Well,
I mean,
Blackburn is not the governor,
so she's not,
but she's a very well-known figure
in the state and has been the,
the heavy favorite for a very long time.
She is,
uh,
if you go back,
uh,
you know,
she was in the 70s and 80s for a long time
and popped up,
go to give me a month here,
Adam,
uh,
this is the month chart.
You see her,
give her a high point there,
which is around uh July 23rd or so.
Uh,
you see her pop up a little bit longer,
maybe to 98% there.
Really kind of quote unquote,
a sure thing,
as we know our First Amendment is a sure thing,
always has air quotes,
so
not a sure thing,
which is at 98%.
And this might be an example of it.
Uh,
this,
you see a drop-off after this,
and you see her drop down to the end here at 92%,
which is where she stands
right now.
I've been buying shares at 91% and 92%,
uh,
of Marsha Blackburn to win this race.
I think she's the favorite.
The one
piece of evidence,
we discussed it briefly last week,
is a poll that came out,
which was a poll associated with her challenger,
uh,
that had this as a 4-point race.
Every other piece of evidence we have is that this is a double-digit race.
So,
I do think she'll win.
Getting 8% in a day or two is fantastic.
Uh,
take it.
Uh,
you know,
this is a weird race because John Rose is
the challenger and Monty Fitz is another guy.
I've talked to a bunch of conservatives,
you know,
sort of long-term conservatives who really like Monty,
uh,
Fritz
as the,
as the opponent.
Uh,
uh,
you know,
he's inching up a little bit to 2%,
but I don't think he's,
he's going to be the winner here.
But really,
I don't know.
I mean,
it's not,
I'm,
I'm on Blackburn to a relatively large position.
On Blackburn,
but,
uh,
there's enough questions here that I'm probably not gonna go all in.
And,
and,
you know,
for an all-in result at 8% is nice because you're putting a lot of money behind that,
uh,
you know,
whatever percentage of your portfolio you think is appropriate there.
And then one last race here before we go,
this is actually,
so that one,
that Tennessee race is on Thursday,
uh,
and then we go to,
uh,
next week.
This one I wanted to make you aware of is interesting as well for a couple of reasons.
This is the South Carolina Special
Senate primary.
Um,
and this is,
uh,
the race with who's going to replace,
um,
uh,
Lindsey Graham,
right?
Lindsey Graham passes away.
Obviously,
Donald Trump comes out and says,
uh,
I want the sister.
Uh,
this is,
uh,
Graham's Nordone,
uh,
Darlene Graham Nordone.
She is the Uh,
replacement there.
Do we have that market by any chance?
She is the favorite,
but it's,
there's a lot of room for her to run.
She's at 62% right now.
Russell Frye is at 20%,
increasing quickly.
Russell Frye was the guy that Trump
wanted initially by reporting behind the scenes type reporting.
Wanted Fry initially,
was talked out of it.
Frye is in Congress
now.
I'm getting some of these things confused,
are confusing me off the top of my head,
but he's at,
uh,
he's at 20% now,
which is rising quickly.
Ralph Norman is an interesting one.
Norman's at 18%.
Here's what I like about the Norman play.
We did a lot in the South Carolina,
uh,
gubernatorial nominate,
uh,
nomination.
He was in that race,
and
Norman has a pretty locked-in constituency.
If you think of him as almost like the Nikki Haley constituent constituency in,
in South Carolina,
not when she was running,
but now.
So people who are of that profile,
Norman has been endorsed by Haley,
um,
really like her,
and there's about a 20%,
25%
grouping.
In
South Carolina who really like Norman.
My view,
however,
is
despite when we have a primary debate tonight,
so this could change,
and I'm not going big until I see this debate.
But if Graham performs well,
she's gonna probably go
absolutely crazy and go up to 90-something%.
And I think that could happen
tonight.
Um,
if she does not,
this is again,
you have a runoff here,
so it's the top two.
I think there's a good chance Norman actually wins the first round,
but I don't think Norman can win
in a runoff
in this state because
Trump doesn't like him,
and Trump will come out,
whether it's Fry or Graham that somehow get through.
If they're going against Norman,
he will come out and I think strongly
endorse the opponent.
So what you're talking about here is I think there's value in Graham.
If you have any ability to project how she's gonna do in this debate.
If not,
I wouldn't go into that yet,
but the no on Norman is interesting to me.
18%,
and Norman just does,
I don't think he has the soul of the Republican Party right now.
He may show well in this first round,
but I think it's gonna be difficult for him
to climb above unless there's some sort of crazy,
uh,
thing.
But for 18%,
I don't mind it.
So,
that's another one
to look at.
That's a lot of picks.
I gave you a lot of information about what we're looking.
And I can,
I know sometimes that can be overwhelming.
One of the,
probably the most common question we've received since we started this was,
hey,
can you just give me a freaking list of the picks?
Uh,
you talk about them all the time,
but I'm in my car.
I can't write them down,
uh,
you know,
and I,
I,
I understand that and I appreciate it.
I try to give them to you at predictableShow.com.
I'll give it to you on social media as well.
None of that's changing.
We have a premium tier that started.
What the premium tier is gonna get though is that sort of like
list of all of them,
right?
And I,
I went through the list.
There's a lot,
OK?
There is a lot of different uh positions that I have.
Some I barely even remember taking,
frankly,
but they're there and I'm gonna I'm gonna unleash the entire list.
We're doing a record release party on Friday
for paid subscribers.
If you wanna be a premium subscriber,
go to predictableShow.com.
There you sign up,
uh,
you,
uh,
get,
go to the premium tier,
make sure you select that premium tier and you will get it,
you will get all these picks and you will get kind of like a
I hope to make it a little bit prettier than a spreadsheet,
but basically,
every single thing,
how,
what the position is,
and uh what size of a position I took on it,
which kind of indicates confidence
level.
That is kind of where we are with that and we're gonna talk it out.
I'm gonna describe how you get that information on a day to day basis,
how we update it,
show you how to use it,
how to access it.
It's all part of your premium
subscription and it's available at predictableshow.com.
If,
if you're someone who's just looking at this and saying,
look,
I just wanna get the information still,
like stop bothering me about the premium subscription.
I get it.
That's totally fine.
We love having you here for free,
no pressure whatsoever.
If you wanna get the kind of detailed thing because you're trading these markets,
I do think this is gonna pay for itself quite easily.
Uh,
it's,
uh,
it's the type of service that,
you know,
look,
we're not an investment advice show.
I can't guarantee you anything,
you never know.
But we've done very,
very well
on these markets so far.
Let me give you a rundown real quick,
uh,
if you want to see how we've done so far.
We have different sizes of markets.
They start,
uh,
with the marker market,
the smallest size of any investment that I make,
kind of just a mark,
a market,
so I remember to look at it.
We've hit on those 42
and 13 is our record 76.3% success rate.
A small position.
A little bit of more confidence,
but no,
no,
no big shakes here,
right?
Uh,
that is,
we're 41 and 9.
We've hit 82% of those positions.
Medium,
we're starting to get into some pretty good confidence here.
This is money that I would be annoyed to lose.
Uh,
you know,
it's not a couple of cents here and there,
but
our medium picks so far this election season,
we are 43-1.
We've hit a 97.8% of those picks.
Again,
do I think this is worth it for you if
you're investing in these markets to get the premium subscription?
I do.
I think you're gonna do very,
very well here
and easily pay for it on itself.
Large positions when we're like,
all right,
they were really confident in this,
we're taking a large position.
We are
25-0.
We've hit 100% of our large positions.
There's only one level that's above large.
And that's the all-in when I'm like,
OK,
every single cent I can get,
every free cent I have,
I'm going into this.
This doesn't mean every dollar you have,
to be clear,
don't wipe out your entire life
because of this,
but this is every free dollar
that I have in my prediction market account.
Uh,
we go in on the all-in positions.
We've done that 6 times so far,
we're 6-0 there.
So,
large and all-in positions total,
we're 31-0,
and if you add in mediums,
we're what,
74-1.
Now,
is that good enough
to get a premium subscription if you're trading these markets?
I would argue the answer to that is yes.
And we're gonna give you all those picks,
our premium subscription.
Uh,
uh,
in our kind of record release party,
Stu's Picks record release party.
This will be an updated thing that you get all the time
if you're part of the premium tier.
So,
join us at predictableshow.com.
We've got some great information when it comes to Hollywood
and another recommendation we made on the free side,
we still make those on the free side.
It's not like premium only gets all the,
the picks.
You'll still get lots of them on the free side,
but,
uh,
we did this one on the free side just the other day.
It's already paid off.
We'll show you if there's any more room to run
next.
Let me bring you back in time for a new segment,
uh,
well,
a segment we've done a couple of times called Here's One I Kinda like,
and,
and what I wanna bring you back in time to the Dodd-Frank era.
Remember Dodd,
Remember Frank,
uh,
the days of Dodd-Frank.
And in buried in the Dodd-Frank bill,
there was a conversations going on at that time about prediction markets.
Are they gonna be rise?
Are people gonna be talking about them a lot?
And a couple of people in Hollywood were like,
well,
we don't want people
predicting our num box office numbers.
That could be,
that could lead to catastrophe or something.
I don't know.
One of Barney Frank's friends was like,
hey,
can you put it,
just throw a little thing in there about prediction markets
and box office receipts.
Don't just ban them inexplicably in this middle of this,
this,
uh,
financial bill,
which doesn't ban prediction markets,
just bans prediction markets
about
box office.
which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever,
but it's the law.
So we follow these things,
I suppose.
You have to.
That's the world that we live in.
But
I will say,
if you happen to be,
uh,
this is what's interesting is,
you know,
Calci is a,
uh,
prediction market based in the US.
Polymarkett US is also based in the US.
However,
there's a poly-market International,
which does not have,
it's not,
you know,
overseen by the United States.
Uh,
so if you happen to be traveling out of the country or whatever you're doing,
if you're on polymarket US,
this particular
market.
caught my eye and I think it's a fascinating one.
It's,
I would say it's not even one I kinda like.
It's one I kind of love.
Uh,
even now,
I think I still kind of like it.
We talked about this a few days ago
on PredictableShow.com,
so you got this information earlier.
Uh,
but this is,
uh,
a market about,
uh,
Spider-Man.
Now,
this is,
you probably saw the headlines.
Spider-Man,
Brand New Day opening weekend box office
officially smashes Avengers Endgame
record,
or at least,
it depends on what records you're looking at.
When we're talking about
Overall box office receipts,
it brought in $355 million
which is $2 million away from the all-time record,
which was set by
Avengers Endgame,
pre-COVID,
by the way.
So this is the highest that's ever happened since COVID.
Obviously,
more people were going to the theaters back in the COVID days.
We've had some inflation,
there's other things that are complicated,
so,
you know,
a little apples and oranges,
but
all we're talking about is the main number when it comes to prediction markets.
Now,
uh,
the,
the market that I absolutely love here
is about,
um,
what is going to be the highest growing,
um,
grossing picture of the year.
Let me just set the stage here.
Spider-Man Brand New Day is,
is kind of seen in Hollywood as the most valuable IP
um
of any.
Uh,
any
series franchise
because it's kind of seen as relatable to every,
it's not like just,
oh well,
Tony Stark is a billionaire and there's a bunch of crazy superheroes going around.
Avengers is a great property for,
uh,
the movie studios,
but
Spider-Man kind of seen as like the,
the longest lasting,
the most legs,
all right?
And I'm not just saying that because spiders have 8 legs,
which I just realized I had a major pun there,
so sorry about that.
It has the most legs.
So,
uh,
Spider-Man comes out,
it's coming out this weekend,
and there's massive attention toward it,
and it is testing
off the charts with audiences,
right?
This is like,
yeah,
I don't know what the Rotten Tomatoes score is of,
uh,
in that one,
you could,
you could do on Calshi,
but I don't know what the Rotten Tomatoes score is of Spider-Man,
but it's way up there in the 90s.
Uh,
all the background stuff,
all the industry buzz,
super,
super
huge on it.
On the,
the really,
you look at the way that this is coming out,
it's gonna have this massive weekend.
No one expected it necessarily to do 355 million,
so they're way above expectations,
but even with that,
it looked like it might be
the top movie of the year,
passing Toy Story,
which is now number one.
You've got uh Odyssey,
which is still churning,
but,
you know,
somewhat of a quirky 3.5 hour
tale
that not necessarily applies to everyday Americans,
um,
even though it makes a lot of money,
probably not gonna be
superhero level money.
So there's one more movie that can really get in the way
of Spider-Man,
and that is Avengers
Doomsday.
So you could say,
OK,
Avengers Doomsday,
the last Avengers,
or I don't know if it was the last one cause I don't pay attention to,
uh,
to,
too closely to the saga,
but
the,
the biggest one of all time was Avengers Endgame that came out in 2019.
Another Avengers movie coming out later this year.
You should be worried whether Spider-Man
will
go to number one.
I was buying this in the low 1980s that Spider-Man would be
number one.
Here's the thing,
Avengers Doomsday
comes out
on December 18th.
So you've got 2 weeks,
2 weeks of Avengers Endgame versus 5 months potentially
of Spider-Man Brand New Day.
I love this matchup.
I loved it at 83 cents.
Uh,
give me the chart.
We,
we,
this is the poly market on it.
Uh,
you're looking at it at 83 cents.
I'm all over it at 83 cents.
Uh,
it rose up,
and honestly,
I'm,
I wish I was earlier on this cause you could see it was at 50 cent at one point.
Uh,
for Spider-Man Brand New Day.
It has now risen up from 83.
It's already up to 91.
There's still a few more cents to run.
I just don't see how it's
I mean,
Avengers Doomsday would have to have
the greatest two weeks of every,
any movie in history.
And by the way,
the buzz on,
uh,
would you say,
Adam,
the buzz on Avengers Doomsday,
not that positive so far?
Is that fair to say?
People are kind of tired
of the Marvel stuff.
Uh,
there's a lot of
talk about too much CGI,
too much AI potentially used,
even though I don't think they're using AI,
but feels AI sloppish,
uh,
recycles actor,
actors.
Oh yeah,
you're taking,
the other one was just seems so cheesy.
They're taking,
uh,
they're taking Iron Man,
and they're just making him a different character inexplicably.
So anyway,
that's the buzz on it.
But even if it's the greatest movie of all time,
It probably still won't clear what Spider-Man's going to do.
Uh,
and,
you know,
you get great numbers around the holidays,
which is why they release movies in December cause everybody's off,
everyone go see the movies.
I just don't believe
it can come close.
And now the markets are a little more reflecting that,
but I was honestly relatively late on this bandwagon.
I still think it's a good investment
at 91 cents
or
Avengers Doomsday,
no,
at 8 cents.
Both of those,
I think are good picks.
But there is more,
uh,
potential money.
By the way,
when I put the,
gave this out,
it was a 38%
annual percentage rate return.
Um,
it was a 16% raw return.
Uh,
I think we're gonna hit that
pretty easily,
especially because we didn't even think,
and we didn't see $355 million coming,
so a huge week.
There are two other things that I think are,
are three other things.
This is the highest,
uh,
what do we have next?
Um,
opening box office,
uh,
numbers.
Yeah,
here we go.
We see now,
is it going to be $350 million plus?
I just want to show you a little bit about this market,
these markets and how these things work.
If you see the,
uh,
the,
the titles here,
it's 280 million to 290,
uh,
it's 340 to 350 million,
and then there's 350 million plus,
which was the highest
level they
put up there,
350 million plus.
It cleared that,
it's gonna,
that's gonna come through.
But the more important thing is look at the top of this.
Spider-Man Brand New Day,
opening weekend box office,
parentheses,
higher strikes.
Whenever you see something like that,
something dramatically has changed
in the prediction markets.
Higher strikes means
that
basically,
they had some number
in the last,
the first time they,
they put this up there,
they're like,
I don't know,
250 million or more.
And it was so obvious it was gonna be more than 250 million.
They had to launch a new prediction market
to give you higher ranges
for these prices.
So whenever you see higher strikes,
something pretty interesting has happened in that market.
But 350 million,
even
their retry of getting how high this would go,
came up short.
350 million or more
is gonna hit there.
So let me give you two other places to potentially make money here.
These are a little bit,
uh,
You know,
again,
these aren't sure things like I think
that first market is.
It's close to a sure thing
as is possible,
especially after this first weekend
of information.
The only real thought here
is
9% now.
Is there opportunity cost?
Can you get more of a return?
I mean,
we,
I think that we've got 9% possibilities that are gonna happen tomorrow.
So you wanna hold that for 5 months for 9%.
You know,
I still think it's a good fun part of the
portfolio if you happen to be on Poly Market International.
Uh,
these last two are interesting as well.
The best week of the year,
box office returns.
Um,
right now,
it is at,
uh,
Avengers Doomsday is leading that at 70%.
God,
uh,
the reason why this is even a question is because
Avengers Doomsday is coming out around the holidays when everyone's gonna be off.
So,
can it beat,
uh,
Spider-Man?
Yes.
I still
don't mind Spider-Man at 30% because,
uh,
you know,
again,
Avengers Doomsday would have to have a Massive,
massive release.
It probably will.
It's still probably the slight favorite there,
but,
uh,
you know,
gosh,
uh,
I,
you know,
still a few,
a few cents on Spider-Man,
uh,
is not,
uh,
the worst investment.
And the last one is,
uh,
best weekend of the year.
This one was pretty low when we first recommended it.
It's currently at 54%.
Uh,
you know,
look,
only one movie has ever
cleared what Spider-Man just did.
One movie.
That was an Avengers movie.
And I think it did come out around the holidays.
Am I right?
I think that's true.
Anyway,
the,
I don't remember if it was a holiday or summer release,
to be honest,
but,
uh,
Spider-Man is still about,
you can basically double your money
on Spider-Man being the biggest opening weekend
and
It's gonna be,
there's only been one weekend in history that's been better than it.
So can Avengers,
can we get two
in the same year that have the highest ever?
Maybe,
but there hasn't been one that's competed
with that first Avengers movie since 2019.
So I think there's value here at 54%.
Uh,
I am,
uh,
I'm a fan.
I'm a fan,
frankly,
uh,
of,
of that one
as well,
although I won't go as big on it as I would on the,
uh,
over the entire year number,
the 2026 number.
That one seems really,
really,
really strong
and is in a stronger position even today than when I recommended it.
Uh,
a few days ago.
OK,
that's where we are.
It's one I kinda like,
a couple that I kinda like,
one that I kinda love,
frankly,
as we are talking about
Spider-Man and box office receipts,
if you happen to be
on Poly Market International or one of the international
exchanges.
OK,
I'm gonna take a break,
come back with your questions next.
We are at at Predictable show on most uh social media and on YouTube.
Uh,
we'd love that you join us there.
You can put your stuff in the comments.
We try to look for all of the comments that,
you know,
I think would be good
to share with the entire audience and answer
those questions to the widest audience possible.
We also do like lots of stuff on PredictableShow.com.
If you go to predictableShow.com,
first of all,
go there,
put your email address in.
Uh,
you'll get a copy of our predictable constitution,
which kind of like the rules of the road for trading that I use on a day to day basis
all the time.
Uh,
it's free if you just put your email address in at predictableshow.com.
In addition to that,
you can put comments kind of wherever.
We have a chat that's going on all the time,
lots of great stuff that comes out just from
the members
who put information out there,
point you to great markets.
It's a great community to be part of if
you're thinking about trading at all in these markets,
predictableshow.com.
This comes in from Christian from our uh premium subscriber chat yesterday.
I'd be curious how you look at and deal with
low volume markets and low info markets with no polling
or news.
A bunch of the,
the stories that we went through earlier
today when we were going through those markets
kind of fall into this category.
Polling is expensive these days and a lot of people don't want to pay for it.
Uh,
this happens over and over and over again.
We're seeing these markets now that,
you know,
1520 years ago,
I mean,
I've been doing prediction markets for about
10 years,
I guess,
uh,
2014,
so 12 years,
um,
and
there would be,
there'll be polling,
some polling of every one of these markets,
uh,
these races.
If it was at all expected to be close,
you'd see polling.
A lot of them now are going in
blind.
Sometimes there's a lot of different factors you can take into that.
You can take into account fundraising,
you can take into account,
uh,
fundamentals of the race.
You can take into account
voter,
um,
uh,
or name recognition of the candidates is a big one
that we look at.
We look at the,
the,
the
demographics of the race,
but all that is sort of art,
right?
You know,
this always comes down to it,
you can't just believe polling.
You can't just believe that stuff,
but
Uh,
you,
it,
it's a great
additional factor to have.
And it,
I always look for
several things I can check off
that will make me feel more and more comfortable.
I don't want just one indicator.
I want multiple indicators.
And
one of the biggest lessons you can learn by doing this is,
you just don't have to be in every market.
It's OK
that you look at a race and you say,
gosh,
I have a feeling about this,
but I don't have enough evidence to support my feeling.
Maybe take a marker position,
which is our smallest,
tiniest position,
sometimes as low as one share,
right?
Like just so you could mark it.
Maybe a small position if you're feeling feisty.
But if you don't have the information and you don't feel like
certain
about where you're going,
Then maybe the best idea is to just stay out of the market,
and that's OK.
There's going to be so many opportunities.
Tomorrow we have 5 primaries.
There's 12 races in each.
There's so much to find
with information.
You don't need to go to those positions
unless you have a real strong feeling about it.
So,
that's kind of where I am.
Thanks for the question,
Christian.
Jack asks,
low risk,
low reward,
high risk,
high reward.
How do we make this low-risk,
high reward?
That is
essentially the holy grail question,
right?
The $64,000 question.
It's the question that,
uh,
I would love to have a perfect answer to,
uh,
because if I had it,
I would be making a lot more.
I'd be,
I'd be looking like,
uh,
Scottylicious on these markets.
Uh,
yeah,
I'd have much,
much more money than I have.
Um,
I
will say that it's difficult to find that combo.
A lot of times you have to settle for either low risk,
low reward,
or high risk,
high reward.
Um,
but what I will say is we do look for the,
the Stevens Market in Michigan is an interesting example of a low-risk,
high reward potential situation.
Uh,
I do expect probably I'll lose a few bucks on that position.
We talked about it earlier,
buying her at like 1 cent
and then watching the election results come in and hoping
she pops to 5 or 10 or 15 or 20,
or who knows?
Maybe she even wins.
Um,
but the risk is really,
really low there.
You know,
if you're buying at 1 cent,
you get 1000 shares for $10.
So if you're willing to take a $10 risk and maybe turn that into
$30.50 dollars,
$100 200 dollars,
who knows,
maybe as much as $1000.
It,
it's kind of fun to try that stuff.
I will say most of the time,
you'll either wind up with a small gain or a small loss when you're playing that way.
It doesn't always give you the high reward,
but we have hit a bunch of these.
One of the things we did when we did that breakdown earlier
of our kind of record across those categories.
As I was analyzing that information,
I was like,
well,
how are we doing on these long shot stuff?
And when,
when we say,
hey,
you know,
we're buying,
we're buying in at
between 0 and 10% chance to win.
Um,
and,
uh,
we,
I was looking at those positions,
which you'd expect to hit
around 5% of those.
So far,
we're around,
uh we were at 25% when I ran the analysis.
I did miss one by 0.8% in South Dakota,
uh,
last time.
So I think we're down to like 22,
23%,
somewhere in that vicinity.
The bottom line is we're,
we're outperforming those long on those long shots by a significant amount.
So this Haley Stevens one is what I'm gonna try probably tomorrow,
uh,
and buy some shares on her and just see what happens.
Maybe she has a little bit of pop.
I would love to see that because at this point,
there's no value in going the opposite way.
So that's an example of low-risk,
higher reward.
Uh,
thanks for the question,
Jack.
And Evan writes,
I personally do not understand why Darlene
Graham is considered such a huge favorite,
giving her mediocre poll.
Do you have a no position on her?
I kind of discussed it a little bit earlier,
uh,
Evan,
but to add on to this,
um,
I don't have a no position on her.
I have a,
a small,
I think,
uh,
maybe medium position,
uh,
and yes on her because I do think she gets through the runoff,
and when she gets to the runoff,
I expect
Trump to be a factor
in loudly saying,
hey,
Uh,
I
do not want
Ralph Norman as the opponent.
It becomes more,
uh,
difficult if Fry is her opponent.
If it's Fry
versus Graham,
I don't
he might keep the endorsement.
But he may do the double endorsement thing or he may do the,
I'm gonna stay quiet thing,
and that's not gonna help,
uh,
Darlene Graham because look,
Graham is there because of name recognition.
We don't know anything about her really.
She has,
uh,
you know,
she was helping blind people,
which is wonderful.
Does that make you a senator?
I don't know.
Uh,
she,
does she share all the positions of Lindsey Graham?
I frankly didn't love all the positions of Lindsey Graham,
but it's probably would be enough
with the Trump endorsement for her to win the state.
Especially against Norman.
If Norman's in there,
I'm very skeptical about his chance to get over 50% in that race.
So I,
I,
I am holding off of growing any position
that I have on Darlene Graham
until I see this debate tonight.
I wanna see how she performs.
If she performs well,
I'm pretty bullish on Graham.
Uh,
so we will see how
that goes.
Uh,
that's all I have time for.
Uh,
although,
I will,
uh,
remind you one more time to go to predictableShow.com.
We would love for you to be there.
I would love for you to be part of the premium tier
of predictableShow.com.
Why?
Well,
you're gonna get every single pick,
every single position
that I have
all coming out on Friday,
sort of a record release party.
Uh,
we're gonna get on,
we're gonna do a live stream,
talk to you,
we'll answer your questions about my picks.
You can make fun of my terrible ones.
There are a few.
I thought about like,
can I just delete these and not put these in?
No,
I'm showing you all of the warts.
Uh,
there are a few in there that I'm like,
gosh,
why did I even do that?
I don't,
what an idiot.
Those are there.
Lots of good ones though as well that I think you'll be able to uh
look at and still have plenty of room to run on a lot of them.
Um,
some of them have already kind of resolved and
most of the profits have been taken away.
Some of them though,
there are real opportunities for you to jump in.
And they're,
you know,
ones that go till the end of the year,
uh,
most of them,
there's a few that are even 2028,
uh,
you know,
presidential stuff that I have,
which is kind of interesting to talk about.
So,
lots of interesting stuff.
Just go there,
get the premium tier subscription,
and you will get access to every single pick that I have
in an updated way.
Over the time that you're a member.
So as these things update,
you'll be able to say,
hey,
I love that pick.
I'm gonna go with Stu on that one,
or say,
hey,
that one's really stupid.
He's a moron.
I'm gonna make fun of him in the live chat.
Whatever you wanna do,
we'd love to have you at predictableshow.com as part of the premium members.
There's been a ton of you that have joined so far.
Thanks so much,
by the way,
uh,
because this is a new thing that we just launched.
We're really,
really excited.
It has us rising up the charts on the sub-stack charts and all of that.
So thanks so much for being part of the team.
I do think it's gonna be
uh money well spent.
It should pay for itself,
I think,
uh,
at least,
uh,
if things continue to go as well as they've gone so far.
So,
thanks so much for joining us and check us out on YouTube,
on podcast as well.
We're available everywhere you are.
So that's all I have for you tonight.
Thanks so much for joining us.
We'll see you tomorrow.