WEBVTT

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Welcome to Predictable with Stu.

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It's my 3rd show of the day.

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You gotta understand.

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Uh,

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I had Megyn Kelly,

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uh,

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earlier today.

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It was a great,

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uh,

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show.

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Make sure to check that one out.

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Uh,

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Stu and Dave do America,

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now doing Predictable with Stu,

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and I'm doing this,

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uh,

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live stream for the,

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uh,

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wonderful people over at Substacks,

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which you can access this month for free.

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Uh,

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and,

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you know,

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they get to see me screw up when I can't,

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I trip over my words over and over again and start over.

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So that's where we are.

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Uh,

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that's,

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that's life right now,

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and I'm happy about it because tomorrow

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we've got 5 different primaries,

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5 of them.

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You know how many opportunities there are to make some money on this,

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on these elections and their outcomes.

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Also,

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it's gonna give us a great sense as to

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who's going to win.

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And who's going to lose.

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So we'll get into that.

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We have some great stuff on Spider-Man and the box office returns there.

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You can participate

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in their box office returns if you,

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if,

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if you're at the right scenario,

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we'll get into that.

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And we have some great questions from you,

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uh,

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your comments as well.

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We did a,

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a premium subscriber live chat last night with lots of great thoughts,

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lots of great recommendations on new markets and stuff like that.

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We'll get into that here in just a little bit.

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Thanks for joining us.

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You can always join us on YouTube as well,

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youtube.com/atpredictable

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with Stu.

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Thank you for joining us

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on Predictable.

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Go to predictableShow.com and put your email address in.

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By the way,

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if you're not a subscriber,

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uh,

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I mean,

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you might wanna just do it for at least the initial email.

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Why?

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Because in that initial email

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for new subscribers,

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we're going to put

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up,

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uh,

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give you a copy of the Constitution.

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These are the amendments,

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the 16 amendments to the predictable Constitution.

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We'll outline kind of like the trading rules that I trade by on a day to day basis.

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This is all free if you just go and,

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and put your email at uh predictableshow.com.

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If you're a current subscriber,

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we'll show you how to get that as well.

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But you can get it

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and uh check it all out on kind of one sheet to kind of uh put it,

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put it out,

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maybe print it out,

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stick it by your computer so you don't screw up the way that I've screwed up.

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Why learn the lesson in the expensive way?

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That I have where you can get it for free by signing up at predictableshow.com.

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OK,

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lots of primaries are coming up.

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Let me give you the schedule.

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I'm gonna look ahead a little bit here,

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and we're gonna look at what we can get done tomorrow,

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August 4th.

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We have Kansas,

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Michigan,

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Missouri,

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Virginia,

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and Washington.

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Then the very,

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uh,

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this is like when,

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uh,

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we get late in the NFL season,

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they start putting games on like Wednesdays for some reason.

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We have the Thursday,

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August 6th primary in Tennessee.

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We have the August 8th,

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the Saturday,

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uh,

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primary in Hawaii,

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and then August 11th is a week away,

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another really big week.

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Connecticut,

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Minnesota,

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Vermont,

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Wisconsin,

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and South Carolina,

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that special US Senate Republican primary that because of Lindsey Graham

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passing away.

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That's what we have

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to look forward to.

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And we have,

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you know,

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a bunch of races.

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It's kind of,

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there's one way to look at this,

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right?

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You can look at it from a perspective of,

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uh,

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you know,

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how are we gonna learn about the,

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the election and what's coming up because that's,

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you know,

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look,

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it's,

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as much as I like

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going on prediction markets and making money on prediction markets,

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it's not gonna be the most important thing.

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The most important thing

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is what happens to the country,

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and,

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uh,

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that's what we watch most closely here.

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Uh,

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but we do want to look for those opportunities.

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So,

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when you talk about a race like,

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um,

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maybe the most,

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one of the most important races in the country right now,

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we're gonna talk about this in a second,

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the Michigan Democratic Senate primary is a massive one.

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And there's all sorts of,

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uh,

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all sorts of,

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uh,

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different ramifications from that.

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And then the other side we'll look for markets that just,

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you know,

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look,

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might not be as interesting to the everyday person,

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but a place an opportunity

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for you to make a little money on prediction markets.

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So,

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let's start with this Michigan Senate primary race.

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We've done a decent amount of coverage on this,

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and this is a,

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it's a big one.

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This is,

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of course,

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the,

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uh,

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Abdul El Sayed versus Haley Stevens race.

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And what a roller coaster ride

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this has been.

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If you go,

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this is like the main,

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um,

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sort of,

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uh,

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outline of this race,

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which has,

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uh,

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Mallory,

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Mallory McMorrow leading from,

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I don't know,

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fall 2025

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to April 2026.

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Now she's not even in the race anymore.

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She was leading all that time.

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Now she's not even in the race.

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She's dropped out.

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The two candidates that are big names

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that are left are Abdul El Sayed and Haley Stevens.

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Uh,

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Abdul El Sayed,

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uh,

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took that lead in April or May

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and has held it and was getting as high as like the mid to high 80s.

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Uh,

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and then had a couple around the time where we had,

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uh,

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uh,

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their debates,

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there were a couple of polls that came out in,

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in a recent poll,

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only a couple of weeks ago,

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had Haley Stevens up

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by 7%.

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And you see how that race tightened and the

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prediction markets as we're looking at the chart.

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Give me the last,

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uh,

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month or so here,

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Adam,

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if we could on this chart.

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Um,

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so this is what it looked like.

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You see,

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go back to the beginning of this,

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you see,

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uh,

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you know,

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early July.

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Um,

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70,

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or actually 85% for Abudul El Sayyed.

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It kind of narrows down together a little bit as we follow the line,

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follow the line down to 66% for El Sayed,

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pops back up in El Sayyed's favor more,

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back to 82.9%,

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and drops down again

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to 64.4%.

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Haley Stevens.

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36% chance.

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And this is,

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I would say how it's being presented in the media,

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uh,

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as a really close call.

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You see now,

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however,

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Abdul El Sayyed

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has risen all the way up to now 98.4%

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a day before this primary.

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Now,

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I will tell you,

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and then we've talked about this a little bit before,

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I recommended,

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uh,

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El Sayed as the guy,

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um,

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a while ago.

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I got a little nervous about that,

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frankly,

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over time.

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I didn't make a huge position on Abdul El Sayed,

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but I did have him,

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um,

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as a,

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a,

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a,

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a favorite,

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um,

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and held him through a lot of these ups and downs,

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but didn't grow my position all that much.

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I will be honest with you,

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yesterday,

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I sold

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all my shares

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in Abdul El Sayed.

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Why?

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There's just nothing left.

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I mean,

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I rode that thing up 2030 points,

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and now it's at 97.

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And while I still believe Abdul Sayed will probably win this election,

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there have been multiple polls.

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Do I have them here in front of me?

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Uh,

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did I pull those polls?

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I think I did.

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I did somewhere.

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Let's see if I can find them real quick.

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Uh,

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yeah,

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here we go.

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Um,

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the average now,

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uh,

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uh,

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Decision desk has it at

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a 53 to 40 average,

290
00:06:31.079 --> 00:06:31.149
uh,

291
00:06:31.239 --> 00:06:31.640
of the poll.

292
00:06:31.679 --> 00:06:32.320
And I don't know if that,

293
00:06:32.399 --> 00:06:37.109
that's if the 7-point Haley Stevens lead is in that average because that was,

294
00:06:37.119 --> 00:06:37.279
uh,

295
00:06:37.359 --> 00:06:38.380
that was a few weeks ago.

296
00:06:38.799 --> 00:06:39.119
But I mean,

297
00:06:39.230 --> 00:06:40.410
this race has moved a lot,

298
00:06:40.480 --> 00:06:41.040
is my point,

299
00:06:41.079 --> 00:06:44.119
and it moved so much that people are basically 100% certain,

300
00:06:44.350 --> 00:06:45.700
98.4% certain

301
00:06:45.920 --> 00:06:47.420
that he is going to win

302
00:06:47.720 --> 00:06:48.500
this race.

303
00:06:48.720 --> 00:06:49.700
I would not recommend

304
00:06:50.160 --> 00:06:53.420
going into this market on Al Sayed at this point.

305
00:06:53.920 --> 00:06:58.480
I think it is now at the level where it is so positive for El Sayed

306
00:06:58.720 --> 00:07:00.040
that there's just no profit there.

307
00:07:00.160 --> 00:07:00.899
I rode this up,

308
00:07:01.040 --> 00:07:01.049
we,

309
00:07:01.059 --> 00:07:02.630
we rode this up a couple dozen points,

310
00:07:02.679 --> 00:07:03.440
whatever it was,

311
00:07:03.690 --> 00:07:03.829
uh,

312
00:07:03.920 --> 00:07:06.380
and then we sold the shares yesterday.

313
00:07:06.440 --> 00:07:08.119
I sold every single one of them at 97.

314
00:07:08.500 --> 00:07:08.619
Uh,

315
00:07:08.869 --> 00:07:09.149
because I,

316
00:07:09.230 --> 00:07:09.869
I just didn't see,

317
00:07:09.989 --> 00:07:10.109
you know,

318
00:07:10.179 --> 00:07:11.470
the last 3 points not really worth it.

319
00:07:11.579 --> 00:07:11.709
I,

320
00:07:11.869 --> 00:07:14.570
this race is still presented as a pretty close one.

321
00:07:14.950 --> 00:07:16.929
And while I don't think,

322
00:07:17.350 --> 00:07:17.440
Uh,

323
00:07:17.519 --> 00:07:18.540
Al Sayed's going to lose.

324
00:07:18.839 --> 00:07:19.940
I will say this,

325
00:07:20.279 --> 00:07:20.440
uh,

326
00:07:20.559 --> 00:07:22.940
and Decision Desk has a great graphic here

327
00:07:23.459 --> 00:07:23.899
right there

328
00:07:24.119 --> 00:07:24.350
of,

329
00:07:24.399 --> 00:07:24.779
uh,

330
00:07:24.880 --> 00:07:27.480
of what the spending and ad support has been in this race.

331
00:07:27.559 --> 00:07:28.320
This is incredible.

332
00:07:28.600 --> 00:07:30.779
Abdul Sayed has spent $7.3 million

333
00:07:30.959 --> 00:07:31.309
OK?

334
00:07:31.519 --> 00:07:33.299
It's a decent amount of cash for a Senate race.

335
00:07:33.559 --> 00:07:36.709
Other candidates have put $9.7 million into this race.

336
00:07:36.760 --> 00:07:38.260
I assume that's mostly McMorrow.

337
00:07:39.369 --> 00:07:40.529
Haley Stevens,

338
00:07:40.850 --> 00:07:40.970
you know,

339
00:07:41.079 --> 00:07:41.410
she's been,

340
00:07:41.489 --> 00:07:42.890
and this has been a topic of all the debates.

341
00:07:42.959 --> 00:07:45.470
She's got AIPAC support and all the establishment support,

342
00:07:45.730 --> 00:07:50.769
$63.9 million.09 times,

343
00:07:50.890 --> 00:07:51.549
9 times,

344
00:07:51.850 --> 00:07:54.070
9 times as much money

345
00:07:54.239 --> 00:07:55.570
has gone in for Haley Stevens.

346
00:07:55.640 --> 00:07:56.829
So the fact that she could be

347
00:07:57.049 --> 00:07:59.170
competitive in this race would not be a huge surprise.

348
00:07:59.230 --> 00:07:59.369
I mean,

349
00:07:59.450 --> 00:08:02.230
98% certainty is too certain

350
00:08:02.410 --> 00:08:03.410
in this race for me.

351
00:08:04.760 --> 00:08:05.940
What I'm gonna say next

352
00:08:06.519 --> 00:08:06.799
is a,

353
00:08:06.880 --> 00:08:07.440
is a,

354
00:08:07.760 --> 00:08:08.079
is,

355
00:08:08.160 --> 00:08:10.059
is an interesting thing that I like to do.

356
00:08:10.519 --> 00:08:12.899
I've made a decent amount of profit on El Sayed already.

357
00:08:13.279 --> 00:08:15.019
I look at this race now and I see

358
00:08:15.480 --> 00:08:16.309
Haley Stevens,

359
00:08:16.480 --> 00:08:18.480
who's had tons and tons of money put behind her.

360
00:08:19.250 --> 00:08:21.029
This has been a close race the entire time.

361
00:08:21.329 --> 00:08:24.709
There was a poll where she led by 7 points just a couple of weeks ago.

362
00:08:25.410 --> 00:08:26.660
The question now is,

363
00:08:27.019 --> 00:08:29.320
can she at least look competitive?

364
00:08:30.339 --> 00:08:31.279
For 20 minutes.

365
00:08:32.450 --> 00:08:33.369
Polls close,

366
00:08:33.679 --> 00:08:36.489
you get about a 20-minute gap there where people are votes are coming in

367
00:08:36.489 --> 00:08:39.429
and it could be a certain batch that's a little more favorable to Stevens.

368
00:08:39.690 --> 00:08:42.489
Let's just say we're 10% of the vote in and Haley Stevens is

369
00:08:42.690 --> 00:08:43.450
up by 2%,

370
00:08:43.969 --> 00:08:44.570
down by 2%,

371
00:08:44.729 --> 00:08:45.150
right there,

372
00:08:45.250 --> 00:08:45.890
competitive.

373
00:08:46.789 --> 00:08:47.570
There's no way

374
00:08:48.070 --> 00:08:49.700
that's sticking at 1%

375
00:08:49.869 --> 00:08:50.429
during that time.

376
00:08:50.549 --> 00:08:51.650
And if I can get in

377
00:08:51.950 --> 00:08:53.229
with a little bit of my profit,

378
00:08:53.349 --> 00:08:54.659
take a little slice out of that,

379
00:08:54.789 --> 00:08:55.969
and dabble in,

380
00:08:56.309 --> 00:08:56.619
yes,

381
00:08:56.869 --> 00:08:58.739
pro Haley Stevens money here.

382
00:08:59.030 --> 00:08:59.530
We're talking

383
00:08:59.830 --> 00:09:01.229
buying her at 1 cent,

384
00:09:01.349 --> 00:09:02.090
$1.5

385
00:09:03.229 --> 00:09:03.690
you know,

386
00:09:03.950 --> 00:09:06.840
you can get 1000 shares for $10.15 dollars.

387
00:09:07.700 --> 00:09:07.989
And,

388
00:09:08.109 --> 00:09:08.309
you know,

389
00:09:08.390 --> 00:09:10.830
what we always say here is when we do things like this,

390
00:09:10.869 --> 00:09:12.909
cause I don't necessarily think she's gonna win this race,

391
00:09:12.950 --> 00:09:13.609
and I don't

392
00:09:13.909 --> 00:09:15.760
typically like taking positions that

393
00:09:16.179 --> 00:09:17.409
If I'm not around my computer,

394
00:09:17.669 --> 00:09:18.429
I have to worry about,

395
00:09:18.669 --> 00:09:18.789
right?

396
00:09:18.869 --> 00:09:19.909
I like to take positions that,

397
00:09:20.030 --> 00:09:21.549
that will resolve correctly at the end.

398
00:09:21.669 --> 00:09:22.210
I'm not

399
00:09:23.219 --> 00:09:25.510
super confident that Haley's Stevens is gonna win this race by any means.

400
00:09:25.580 --> 00:09:26.489
This is not me saying

401
00:09:26.669 --> 00:09:27.369
she's gonna win.

402
00:09:27.549 --> 00:09:27.929
But

403
00:09:28.150 --> 00:09:30.030
is there a chance that you could get in there and if,

404
00:09:30.070 --> 00:09:31.789
if things fall the right way,

405
00:09:31.950 --> 00:09:33.099
they probably won't.

406
00:09:33.349 --> 00:09:34.419
But if they do,

407
00:09:34.710 --> 00:09:40.590
can that 1.4% purchase turn into 578 cents,

408
00:09:40.669 --> 00:09:41.150
10 cents,

409
00:09:41.260 --> 00:09:42.030
20 cents?

410
00:09:43.109 --> 00:09:44.090
It's possible.

411
00:09:44.510 --> 00:09:47.929
And what I would do in this situation is something we call laddering.

412
00:09:48.349 --> 00:09:49.390
If you buy at 1 cent,

413
00:09:49.460 --> 00:09:50.429
let's say you buy it $1.5.

414
00:09:51.390 --> 00:09:51.510
Uh,

415
00:09:51.590 --> 00:09:53.549
the easiest way to think about this is to

416
00:09:53.549 --> 00:09:56.130
immediately put a sale for half of your shares

417
00:09:56.340 --> 00:09:57.609
at 3 cents.

418
00:09:57.940 --> 00:09:58.409
And,

419
00:09:58.469 --> 00:09:59.020
uh,

420
00:09:59.030 --> 00:09:59.309
why?

421
00:09:59.510 --> 00:10:01.489
Because if it goes up to 3 just for a second,

422
00:10:02.070 --> 00:10:04.309
your shares get purchased and you pay for that

423
00:10:04.309 --> 00:10:06.210
entire investment and now you're playing with house money.

424
00:10:06.510 --> 00:10:06.869
OK?

425
00:10:07.799 --> 00:10:09.760
If you don't know what I'm talking about,

426
00:10:10.119 --> 00:10:11.039
don't worry about it.

427
00:10:11.119 --> 00:10:11.320
You're,

428
00:10:11.400 --> 00:10:11.559
you know,

429
00:10:11.669 --> 00:10:12.400
you don't need to.

430
00:10:12.489 --> 00:10:13.219
This is sort of an

431
00:10:13.960 --> 00:10:14.500
advanced

432
00:10:14.840 --> 00:10:15.909
fun tactic.

433
00:10:16.200 --> 00:10:17.840
You can totally not participate in this if you,

434
00:10:18.200 --> 00:10:18.679
if you want,

435
00:10:18.760 --> 00:10:19.039
but

436
00:10:19.159 --> 00:10:19.950
if you don't want to participate in it,

437
00:10:20.039 --> 00:10:20.400
that's fine.

438
00:10:20.469 --> 00:10:22.030
But what I would say to people who maybe have,

439
00:10:22.119 --> 00:10:23.960
have dabbled in this world a little bit already,

440
00:10:24.159 --> 00:10:25.200
you buy about 1 cent,

441
00:10:25.280 --> 00:10:26.179
$1.5

442
00:10:27.080 --> 00:10:28.109
you wait for those things,

443
00:10:28.280 --> 00:10:28.659
those,

444
00:10:28.880 --> 00:10:29.080
those,

445
00:10:29.150 --> 00:10:29.520
uh,

446
00:10:29.599 --> 00:10:31.280
the floodgates of votes to come out.

447
00:10:31.619 --> 00:10:33.099
We hope for an early return.

448
00:10:33.159 --> 00:10:33.909
A lot of times,

449
00:10:33.960 --> 00:10:36.140
the more progressive areas are a little slower to return.

450
00:10:36.789 --> 00:10:38.890
And uh we see that in cities often,

451
00:10:39.309 --> 00:10:40.750
where the cities are a little slower to return.

452
00:10:40.830 --> 00:10:42.669
If we get some of those more rural,

453
00:10:42.789 --> 00:10:44.590
middle of the road areas to return,

454
00:10:44.909 --> 00:10:46.590
maybe Stevens leads for a little while,

455
00:10:46.750 --> 00:10:48.250
that thing pops up a little bit,

456
00:10:48.309 --> 00:10:48.909
and you could double,

457
00:10:49.070 --> 00:10:49.299
triple,

458
00:10:49.349 --> 00:10:50.109
quadruple your amount,

459
00:10:50.239 --> 00:10:50.940
who knows?

460
00:10:51.429 --> 00:10:51.929
So,

461
00:10:52.330 --> 00:10:55.130
Just a little thing to think about if you're looking to be a little playful.

462
00:10:55.250 --> 00:10:56.830
If you wanna get a little spicy

463
00:10:57.330 --> 00:10:58.200
with Haley Stevens,

464
00:10:58.250 --> 00:10:58.909
which again,

465
00:10:59.250 --> 00:10:59.969
sounds weird,

466
00:11:00.169 --> 00:11:00.440
but,

467
00:11:00.570 --> 00:11:00.729
you know,

468
00:11:00.809 --> 00:11:01.049
that's,

469
00:11:01.169 --> 00:11:02.130
that's what this show is.

470
00:11:02.250 --> 00:11:03.609
You're watching a show about prediction markets,

471
00:11:03.690 --> 00:11:04.409
you're weird too.

472
00:11:04.570 --> 00:11:05.719
You're part of the problem.

473
00:11:06.010 --> 00:11:07.150
I hope you recognize that.

474
00:11:07.409 --> 00:11:07.770
OK.

475
00:11:08.580 --> 00:11:09.020
So by the way,

476
00:11:09.099 --> 00:11:10.500
if you uh want to watch,

477
00:11:10.580 --> 00:11:10.729
uh,

478
00:11:10.820 --> 00:11:11.380
so tomorrow,

479
00:11:11.450 --> 00:11:11.619
we,

480
00:11:11.900 --> 00:11:14.090
we don't have a normal episode on these big primary days.

481
00:11:14.289 --> 00:11:17.650
What we'll typically do is do live streams of the results in place of that.

482
00:11:18.020 --> 00:11:19.659
So join us over there tomorrow.

483
00:11:19.739 --> 00:11:21.580
I'll probably post a little bit of a preview,

484
00:11:21.619 --> 00:11:21.739
uh,

485
00:11:21.820 --> 00:11:21.940
you know,

486
00:11:22.020 --> 00:11:23.130
of something else that I might see,

487
00:11:23.409 --> 00:11:25.000
something a little different than we're talking about today,

488
00:11:25.500 --> 00:11:25.770
uh,

489
00:11:25.780 --> 00:11:26.419
tomorrow's program.

490
00:11:26.500 --> 00:11:27.659
So if you're listening on the audio feed,

491
00:11:27.700 --> 00:11:28.760
you'll get something tomorrow.

492
00:11:29.059 --> 00:11:31.400
But I wanna just direct you to

493
00:11:31.659 --> 00:11:32.400
YouTube

494
00:11:32.539 --> 00:11:33.739
at predictable show,

495
00:11:34.109 --> 00:11:34.619
um,

496
00:11:34.739 --> 00:11:37.000
the sub stack predictableShow.com.

497
00:11:37.500 --> 00:11:38.580
Any of the social media stuff,

498
00:11:38.690 --> 00:11:40.260
we'll get a live feed out to,

499
00:11:40.429 --> 00:11:41.169
to you guys and,

500
00:11:41.219 --> 00:11:41.380
you know,

501
00:11:41.700 --> 00:11:42.700
watch these results come in.

502
00:11:42.739 --> 00:11:43.940
And if this happens,

503
00:11:44.219 --> 00:11:44.500
we'll,

504
00:11:44.619 --> 00:11:46.280
I'll trade it with you live.

505
00:11:46.820 --> 00:11:47.760
You'll see me doing it

506
00:11:48.460 --> 00:11:49.140
right in front of you.

507
00:11:49.950 --> 00:11:50.580
It's fun,

508
00:11:50.830 --> 00:11:51.619
if nothing else.

509
00:11:51.830 --> 00:11:52.469
So that's anyway,

510
00:11:52.549 --> 00:11:52.750
uh,

511
00:11:52.789 --> 00:11:53.510
kind of a long shot,

512
00:11:53.590 --> 00:11:53.820
uh,

513
00:11:53.830 --> 00:11:55.500
fun play for tomorrow if you want to get involved in that.

514
00:11:55.549 --> 00:11:57.330
Let me give you some of the other high-profile races

515
00:11:57.549 --> 00:11:58.150
as we go.

516
00:11:58.309 --> 00:11:59.630
Missouri 01.

517
00:11:59.700 --> 00:11:59.940
This is,

518
00:11:59.950 --> 00:12:00.140
uh,

519
00:12:00.190 --> 00:12:02.169
the big rematch in Saint Louis

520
00:12:02.549 --> 00:12:04.510
between Wesley Bell and Corey Bush.

521
00:12:04.590 --> 00:12:06.140
You know who Corey Bush is probably.

522
00:12:06.429 --> 00:12:06.750
It's funny,

523
00:12:06.909 --> 00:12:08.650
Wesley Bell is the actual congressman,

524
00:12:09.000 --> 00:12:09.150
uh,

525
00:12:09.229 --> 00:12:10.789
but Corey Bush is a lot more famous.

526
00:12:11.099 --> 00:12:11.309
Uh,

527
00:12:11.469 --> 00:12:12.190
who will win this?

528
00:12:12.309 --> 00:12:12.869
Corey Bush,

529
00:12:12.989 --> 00:12:13.299
uh,

530
00:12:13.510 --> 00:12:15.210
has trailed most of the time.

531
00:12:15.619 --> 00:12:15.880
Uh,

532
00:12:15.979 --> 00:12:16.059
uh,

533
00:12:16.179 --> 00:12:17.260
give me the last month here though,

534
00:12:17.380 --> 00:12:17.659
Adam.

535
00:12:17.770 --> 00:12:18.780
If you look over the last month,

536
00:12:18.859 --> 00:12:20.400
things have changed quite a bit.

537
00:12:20.700 --> 00:12:20.799
Uh,

538
00:12:20.900 --> 00:12:21.859
Corey Bush led,

539
00:12:21.869 --> 00:12:21.890
uh,

540
00:12:21.929 --> 00:12:23.479
in the beginning of July,

541
00:12:23.739 --> 00:12:25.919
and really up until about late July.

542
00:12:26.210 --> 00:12:26.419
Uh,

543
00:12:26.570 --> 00:12:27.169
and then the,

544
00:12:27.219 --> 00:12:28.340
the tides have turned.

545
00:12:28.390 --> 00:12:28.539
Oh,

546
00:12:28.700 --> 00:12:30.119
how the turns have tabled.

547
00:12:30.419 --> 00:12:34.880
And now Wesley Bell is a 67% favorite over Corey Bush at 32%.

548
00:12:35.239 --> 00:12:35.460
Uh,

549
00:12:35.619 --> 00:12:36.770
to be honest with you about this race,

550
00:12:36.820 --> 00:12:37.960
I think it's a fascinating one.

551
00:12:38.219 --> 00:12:40.109
And there are real opportunities here.

552
00:12:42.159 --> 00:12:43.330
This would typically,

553
00:12:43.570 --> 00:12:47.039
especially when we've been looking at our thesis statements that we have,

554
00:12:47.450 --> 00:12:48.799
we will come up with these at a time,

555
00:12:48.890 --> 00:12:51.520
kind of making rules for ourselves on the fly.

556
00:12:51.809 --> 00:12:53.200
What's a current thesis statement?

557
00:12:53.330 --> 00:12:55.750
One of the thesis statements that we have right now is

558
00:12:55.929 --> 00:12:57.010
all things being equal,

559
00:12:57.210 --> 00:12:57.809
particularly in,

560
00:12:57.859 --> 00:12:58.770
in smaller races,

561
00:12:58.849 --> 00:13:00.630
congressional seats as opposed to a wide state.

562
00:13:01.340 --> 00:13:02.809
If Democrats have the opportunity,

563
00:13:02.900 --> 00:13:04.799
they're gonna take the craziest

564
00:13:05.020 --> 00:13:07.119
wild-eyed socialist person

565
00:13:07.460 --> 00:13:08.659
in a Democratic primary.

566
00:13:08.830 --> 00:13:09.979
That's pretty much what's gonna happen.

567
00:13:10.049 --> 00:13:12.859
This is a D +27 district,

568
00:13:12.979 --> 00:13:14.820
so whoever wins this primary is winning this race.

569
00:13:14.900 --> 00:13:15.320
This is

570
00:13:15.500 --> 00:13:16.520
not a competitive race,

571
00:13:16.820 --> 00:13:17.340
so it doesn't matter.

572
00:13:17.419 --> 00:13:18.859
You don't have to worry about electability here.

573
00:13:18.940 --> 00:13:20.119
Any Democrat's going to win.

574
00:13:21.080 --> 00:13:22.880
And Corey Bush is the obvious pick here.

575
00:13:23.080 --> 00:13:24.280
She's the most insane.

576
00:13:24.479 --> 00:13:24.599
Now,

577
00:13:24.640 --> 00:13:26.190
she was so insane last time,

578
00:13:26.359 --> 00:13:27.760
she actually lost to Wesley Bell,

579
00:13:27.840 --> 00:13:28.340
who is

580
00:13:28.659 --> 00:13:31.109
not exactly a conservative candidate or a moderate,

581
00:13:31.479 --> 00:13:34.320
but Corey Bush will go basically farther than

582
00:13:34.320 --> 00:13:36.659
almost anyone else when you're talking about left-wing,

583
00:13:36.919 --> 00:13:37.270
uh,

584
00:13:37.330 --> 00:13:37.479
you know,

585
00:13:37.640 --> 00:13:38.820
some would call insanity.

586
00:13:39.359 --> 00:13:40.200
All that being said,

587
00:13:41.570 --> 00:13:43.150
The one issue I have here

588
00:13:43.330 --> 00:13:45.080
is that Corey Bush is,

589
00:13:45.500 --> 00:13:46.469
uh,

590
00:13:47.140 --> 00:13:50.250
almost over the line for the average person.

591
00:13:50.409 --> 00:13:51.109
She is

592
00:13:51.690 --> 00:13:52.390
so

593
00:13:52.609 --> 00:13:53.510
nuts.

594
00:13:54.010 --> 00:13:57.299
And I say this not even based on policy cause they don't care how socialist she is,

595
00:13:57.369 --> 00:13:59.309
but she's just a little bit of a whack a doodle.

596
00:13:59.570 --> 00:13:59.729
And,

597
00:13:59.849 --> 00:14:02.190
and a lot of people don't like voting for whackadoooodles.

598
00:14:02.570 --> 00:14:02.690
Uh,

599
00:14:02.770 --> 00:14:03.250
that being said,

600
00:14:03.330 --> 00:14:05.909
I do feel like the value is on her here.

601
00:14:06.010 --> 00:14:06.369
If I was,

602
00:14:06.469 --> 00:14:06.489
I,

603
00:14:06.599 --> 00:14:10.289
and I probably will take a small marker or a small position.

604
00:14:11.070 --> 00:14:11.409
On

605
00:14:11.940 --> 00:14:15.489
Corey Bush going into this because I do think there's a chance she wins this.

606
00:14:15.820 --> 00:14:16.030
Um,

607
00:14:16.179 --> 00:14:16.309
you know,

608
00:14:16.419 --> 00:14:18.090
there's not a ton of polling,

609
00:14:18.390 --> 00:14:18.500
uh,

610
00:14:18.539 --> 00:14:19.330
in this race,

611
00:14:19.429 --> 00:14:21.469
and Wesley Bell has raised a lot of money,

612
00:14:21.549 --> 00:14:21.820
which is,

613
00:14:21.830 --> 00:14:22.299
I think,

614
00:14:22.309 --> 00:14:23.609
the large reason why,

615
00:14:24.070 --> 00:14:24.270
uh,

616
00:14:24.429 --> 00:14:25.869
he is seen as the heavy favorite.

617
00:14:25.909 --> 00:14:27.289
He's raised over $5 million.

618
00:14:27.830 --> 00:14:27.950
Uh,

619
00:14:28.070 --> 00:14:29.880
she's raised about $3 million which is still

620
00:14:30.190 --> 00:14:30.890
pretty strong.

621
00:14:31.270 --> 00:14:33.469
She's got pretty strong grassroots support from around the country.

622
00:14:33.549 --> 00:14:34.140
The question is,

623
00:14:34.150 --> 00:14:36.159
does it help in this particular district?

624
00:14:36.229 --> 00:14:36.530
So,

625
00:14:36.830 --> 00:14:37.099
uh,

626
00:14:37.659 --> 00:14:37.739
again,

627
00:14:37.830 --> 00:14:38.909
show me that market one more time if you could,

628
00:14:38.989 --> 00:14:39.229
Adam,

629
00:14:39.340 --> 00:14:39.429
uh,

630
00:14:39.539 --> 00:14:40.460
Missouri 01.

631
00:14:40.780 --> 00:14:41.080
Uh,

632
00:14:41.219 --> 00:14:42.179
this is the Corey Bush,

633
00:14:42.260 --> 00:14:43.239
you see her at

634
00:14:43.619 --> 00:14:44.919
32%.

635
00:14:47.200 --> 00:14:48.299
There's some value there.

636
00:14:48.520 --> 00:14:48.640
I,

637
00:14:48.679 --> 00:14:49.039
I don't know.

638
00:14:49.119 --> 00:14:51.179
I think she's probably low 40

639
00:14:51.500 --> 00:14:53.390
to 45% chance of winning this race.

640
00:14:53.440 --> 00:14:54.880
She's probably still the underdog.

641
00:14:54.940 --> 00:14:55.340
I would

642
00:14:56.280 --> 00:14:57.960
expect to lose this one,

643
00:14:58.159 --> 00:15:00.820
but I'm kind of tempted by 30%

644
00:15:01.080 --> 00:15:01.859
and a chance

645
00:15:02.119 --> 00:15:02.710
to,

646
00:15:02.760 --> 00:15:03.109
uh,

647
00:15:03.200 --> 00:15:03.580
to make,

648
00:15:03.919 --> 00:15:04.080
you know,

649
00:15:04.200 --> 00:15:07.479
58 or 68 cents on every 32 cents I invest.

650
00:15:07.559 --> 00:15:10.500
That's a nice profit margin and we're only again talking about a day.

651
00:15:10.890 --> 00:15:12.369
So I'll watch that one and I will be watching

652
00:15:12.369 --> 00:15:15.070
this one very closely as votes come out to see

653
00:15:15.250 --> 00:15:16.729
what happens and what vote is remaining.

654
00:15:16.789 --> 00:15:17.010
Remember,

655
00:15:17.090 --> 00:15:18.909
Corey Bush will probably start that race down.

656
00:15:19.330 --> 00:15:19.489
Uh,

657
00:15:19.570 --> 00:15:20.169
we'll see.

658
00:15:20.409 --> 00:15:21.969
You never know with the way votes come out,

659
00:15:22.080 --> 00:15:22.289
but,

660
00:15:22.570 --> 00:15:22.650
uh,

661
00:15:22.690 --> 00:15:24.119
that will probably be the way we will look at it.

662
00:15:24.130 --> 00:15:24.890
We'll watch that

663
00:15:25.059 --> 00:15:27.070
and kind of give you the other updates as we go.

664
00:15:27.320 --> 00:15:27.530
Uh,

665
00:15:27.650 --> 00:15:30.520
Michigan Republican primary for governor is another interesting race.

666
00:15:30.530 --> 00:15:32.289
This is John James and Perry Johnson.

667
00:15:32.369 --> 00:15:33.969
I do expect James to win this race.

668
00:15:34.049 --> 00:15:34.530
Do we have that one?

669
00:15:34.650 --> 00:15:35.429
This is the Michigan

670
00:15:36.000 --> 00:15:37.489
Republican primary for governor.

671
00:15:37.909 --> 00:15:38.200
Um,

672
00:15:38.280 --> 00:15:38.409
we're,

673
00:15:38.510 --> 00:15:39.359
we're pulling that one up.

674
00:15:39.640 --> 00:15:40.340
John James has,

675
00:15:40.440 --> 00:15:40.599
uh,

676
00:15:40.799 --> 00:15:42.099
raised $6 million.

677
00:15:42.239 --> 00:15:44.760
Perry Johnson's raised $11 million mostly self-funded.

678
00:15:44.799 --> 00:15:45.780
So you got the businessman

679
00:15:46.070 --> 00:15:46.679
versus James,

680
00:15:46.690 --> 00:15:48.200
who's kind of like the establishment guy.

681
00:15:48.280 --> 00:15:48.520
Oh yeah,

682
00:15:48.559 --> 00:15:49.400
this is really high now,

683
00:15:49.469 --> 00:15:50.520
96%.

684
00:15:51.299 --> 00:15:51.500
Gosh,

685
00:15:51.539 --> 00:15:52.919
I was just watching this a couple of weeks ago

686
00:15:53.299 --> 00:15:54.330
and it was pretty close.

687
00:15:54.619 --> 00:15:54.929
James,

688
00:15:54.979 --> 00:15:55.140
I,

689
00:15:55.200 --> 00:15:57.909
I always think of James as a pretty good candidate,

690
00:15:58.359 --> 00:15:58.369
uh,

691
00:15:58.380 --> 00:15:58.570
you know,

692
00:15:58.650 --> 00:16:01.130
he's a pretty good Republican for a bluish type state.

693
00:16:01.179 --> 00:16:01.760
I think he,

694
00:16:02.219 --> 00:16:02.460
you know,

695
00:16:02.900 --> 00:16:03.130
again,

696
00:16:03.260 --> 00:16:05.159
talking about aesthetics here does pretty well.

697
00:16:05.500 --> 00:16:06.299
He presents well,

698
00:16:06.380 --> 00:16:07.289
he speaks well,

699
00:16:07.380 --> 00:16:07.659
he's,

700
00:16:07.700 --> 00:16:07.979
uh,

701
00:16:08.059 --> 00:16:08.369
you know,

702
00:16:08.739 --> 00:16:09.219
come very,

703
00:16:09.330 --> 00:16:11.330
very close to Michigan multiple times.

704
00:16:11.700 --> 00:16:13.239
Perry Johnson is a challenger.

705
00:16:13.900 --> 00:16:14.859
At 96% though,

706
00:16:14.940 --> 00:16:15.390
I gotta be honest,

707
00:16:15.460 --> 00:16:16.760
I don't see that much value,

708
00:16:16.940 --> 00:16:17.090
uh,

709
00:16:17.130 --> 00:16:17.619
in this one,

710
00:16:17.700 --> 00:16:17.979
but

711
00:16:18.260 --> 00:16:20.229
This has been lower previously.

712
00:16:20.369 --> 00:16:20.539
OK,

713
00:16:20.650 --> 00:16:20.789
uh,

714
00:16:20.859 --> 00:16:23.099
let me give you Michigan 13.

715
00:16:23.190 --> 00:16:23.619
This is,

716
00:16:23.650 --> 00:16:24.239
uh,

717
00:16:24.619 --> 00:16:27.960
a very strange race between an incumbent and a

718
00:16:28.200 --> 00:16:29.880
sort of socialist challenger.

719
00:16:30.219 --> 00:16:30.690
Um,

720
00:16:30.780 --> 00:16:34.059
this is Shri Thanadar.

721
00:16:34.099 --> 00:16:34.859
I don't even know how to pronounce it.

722
00:16:34.909 --> 00:16:35.719
He's a congressman.

723
00:16:36.179 --> 00:16:37.260
I don't know if I've ever heard of the guy,

724
00:16:37.340 --> 00:16:39.979
although I did see him on social media and he looks like,

725
00:16:40.140 --> 00:16:42.200
he's like 20 years old and he's 70.

726
00:16:42.919 --> 00:16:43.549
So I don't know,

727
00:16:43.640 --> 00:16:43.760
uh,

728
00:16:43.849 --> 00:16:44.429
but that's,

729
00:16:44.630 --> 00:16:45.400
he's 70 years old,

730
00:16:45.440 --> 00:16:46.640
he looks like he's 20 years old.

731
00:16:46.880 --> 00:16:47.200
This is,

732
00:16:47.270 --> 00:16:47.369
uh,

733
00:16:47.479 --> 00:16:48.539
Michigan 13,

734
00:16:48.960 --> 00:16:49.349
uh,

735
00:16:49.359 --> 00:16:50.219
outside of Detroit.

736
00:16:50.479 --> 00:16:50.590
Uh,

737
00:16:50.640 --> 00:16:50.989
right now,

738
00:16:51.000 --> 00:16:52.200
we see Donovan McKinney,

739
00:16:52.280 --> 00:16:54.109
the challenger at 86%,

740
00:16:54.130 --> 00:16:55.380
and this is just rising as well.

741
00:16:55.520 --> 00:16:55.640
Wow,

742
00:16:55.760 --> 00:16:55.960
these,

743
00:16:56.080 --> 00:16:56.460
these,

744
00:16:56.840 --> 00:16:58.739
I feel like what's happening is a lot of people who are

745
00:16:59.080 --> 00:17:01.489
mildly sure about this are pouring money into these races at

746
00:17:01.489 --> 00:17:03.200
the last minute and they're getting more and more sure.

747
00:17:03.280 --> 00:17:05.420
I think almost too sure of themselves.

748
00:17:05.800 --> 00:17:06.260
But again,

749
00:17:06.680 --> 00:17:06.829
I mean,

750
00:17:06.880 --> 00:17:07.790
McKinney's only,

751
00:17:07.920 --> 00:17:09.979
has not raised 20% of the money.

752
00:17:10.348 --> 00:17:10.630
Uh,

753
00:17:10.709 --> 00:17:11.150
that has happened.

754
00:17:11.219 --> 00:17:11.348
Again,

755
00:17:11.430 --> 00:17:14.310
this is another Democrat plus 22 districts,

756
00:17:14.390 --> 00:17:16.910
so really whoever wins this is gonna be your congressman.

757
00:17:17.150 --> 00:17:17.510
But again,

758
00:17:17.589 --> 00:17:19.030
this is another opportunity to say,

759
00:17:19.150 --> 00:17:19.270
hey,

760
00:17:19.358 --> 00:17:20.180
the socialist,

761
00:17:20.550 --> 00:17:20.670
they're,

762
00:17:20.750 --> 00:17:22.260
these guys are both super liberal.

763
00:17:22.300 --> 00:17:22.469
I mean,

764
00:17:22.790 --> 00:17:24.010
it's hard to even say,

765
00:17:24.560 --> 00:17:24.819
uh,

766
00:17:24.910 --> 00:17:26.920
that this is a socialist versus establishment

767
00:17:27.069 --> 00:17:28.329
race because they're both

768
00:17:28.550 --> 00:17:29.260
way out there.

769
00:17:29.469 --> 00:17:30.280
But McKinney

770
00:17:30.540 --> 00:17:33.010
is kind of known as a DSA guy

771
00:17:33.310 --> 00:17:35.650
and now all the way up at 86%.

772
00:17:36.329 --> 00:17:37.020
Questionable value,

773
00:17:37.060 --> 00:17:38.150
we're gonna watch that one revealed in,

774
00:17:38.229 --> 00:17:38.989
in real time.

775
00:17:39.650 --> 00:17:40.170
Um,

776
00:17:40.219 --> 00:17:40.729
what else do we have?

777
00:17:40.780 --> 00:17:41.619
Do we have Michigan 12,

778
00:17:41.739 --> 00:17:41.979
Adam?

779
00:17:42.050 --> 00:17:43.540
We can look at that one as well if you have it.

780
00:17:43.859 --> 00:17:43.930
Uh,

781
00:17:43.979 --> 00:17:44.540
I don't know if you do.

782
00:17:44.650 --> 00:17:45.250
That's in my stack,

783
00:17:45.300 --> 00:17:46.410
but I can't remember if I gave that one to you,

784
00:17:46.459 --> 00:17:48.300
or we can move to Tennessee Governor Governor.

785
00:17:48.390 --> 00:17:49.030
That's fine too.

786
00:17:49.140 --> 00:17:49.300
Whatever,

787
00:17:49.380 --> 00:17:50.099
whatever you have up is,

788
00:17:50.140 --> 00:17:50.660
is ready to go.

789
00:17:50.729 --> 00:17:52.089
We had a couple more races to go through.

790
00:17:52.140 --> 00:17:53.520
I just want to hit these before we get out.

791
00:17:53.810 --> 00:17:53.979
Uh,

792
00:17:54.089 --> 00:17:54.780
Michigan 12.

793
00:17:54.859 --> 00:17:54.939
0,

794
00:17:55.020 --> 00:17:55.810
this is Rashida to leave.

795
00:17:55.859 --> 00:17:56.760
That's why I left this one out.

796
00:17:56.819 --> 00:17:57.760
She's at 99%.

797
00:17:58.300 --> 00:17:58.420
Uh,

798
00:17:58.540 --> 00:17:58.619
what,

799
00:17:58.699 --> 00:17:59.270
if you go back,

800
00:17:59.380 --> 00:17:59.579
Adam,

801
00:17:59.650 --> 00:18:01.579
can you zoom in to the last like month or so?

802
00:18:01.989 --> 00:18:02.180
Uh,

803
00:18:02.270 --> 00:18:02.660
I wanted,

804
00:18:02.829 --> 00:18:06.459
I did wind up getting a few shares of her around July 19th or 18th,

805
00:18:06.709 --> 00:18:07.349
going in that range.

806
00:18:07.459 --> 00:18:07.550
Yeah,

807
00:18:07.670 --> 00:18:08.829
she's at 96% there.

808
00:18:08.910 --> 00:18:10.930
It's only 4% over a few weeks.

809
00:18:11.229 --> 00:18:12.949
It's not an amazing return,

810
00:18:12.989 --> 00:18:14.449
but I didn't think there's any chance

811
00:18:14.589 --> 00:18:16.469
Rashida Talib was going to lose this race,

812
00:18:16.479 --> 00:18:16.750
and

813
00:18:16.949 --> 00:18:19.109
now it's gone from 96% to 99%.

814
00:18:19.229 --> 00:18:19.510
So,

815
00:18:19.630 --> 00:18:19.790
not,

816
00:18:19.880 --> 00:18:20.589
not much entry.

817
00:18:20.670 --> 00:18:22.650
I think I may have already sold out of that position.

818
00:18:22.869 --> 00:18:22.989
All right,

819
00:18:23.069 --> 00:18:23.699
Tennessee Governor,

820
00:18:23.750 --> 00:18:25.829
this is one I do think there's a little bit more value in.

821
00:18:26.319 --> 00:18:26.609
Uh,

822
00:18:26.719 --> 00:18:26.839
you know,

823
00:18:26.920 --> 00:18:27.119
there's a,

824
00:18:27.270 --> 00:18:28.989
there's some opposition to Marsha Blackburn.

825
00:18:29.229 --> 00:18:29.550
It's funny,

826
00:18:29.560 --> 00:18:30.119
I've been around,

827
00:18:30.199 --> 00:18:30.280
I,

828
00:18:30.359 --> 00:18:32.069
I know I'm old because I've been around

829
00:18:32.069 --> 00:18:34.900
long enough that Marsha Blackburn has gone from

830
00:18:35.160 --> 00:18:36.030
conservative,

831
00:18:36.040 --> 00:18:36.660
uh,

832
00:18:36.670 --> 00:18:38.939
firebrand and challenger and

833
00:18:39.300 --> 00:18:41.819
against the establishment to now kind of the establishment.

834
00:18:42.119 --> 00:18:42.290
But,

835
00:18:42.349 --> 00:18:42.520
uh,

836
00:18:42.599 --> 00:18:44.099
this is the race in Tennessee.

837
00:18:44.359 --> 00:18:44.589
Uh,

838
00:18:44.880 --> 00:18:45.189
Marsha,

839
00:18:45.319 --> 00:18:45.699
so

840
00:18:45.939 --> 00:18:46.719
this is an interesting race.

841
00:18:46.760 --> 00:18:47.260
You see,

842
00:18:47.510 --> 00:18:49.500
it's Marsha Blackburn versus John Rose.

843
00:18:49.880 --> 00:18:51.069
Rose is,

844
00:18:51.160 --> 00:18:51.390
uh,

845
00:18:51.479 --> 00:18:52.719
is the challenger here.

846
00:18:52.839 --> 00:18:52.920
Well,

847
00:18:53.000 --> 00:18:53.400
I mean,

848
00:18:54.410 --> 00:18:54.599
I mean,

849
00:18:54.729 --> 00:18:56.050
Blackburn is not the governor,

850
00:18:56.089 --> 00:18:56.530
so she's not,

851
00:18:56.650 --> 00:18:58.270
but she's a very well-known figure

852
00:18:58.520 --> 00:18:59.459
in the state and has been the,

853
00:18:59.689 --> 00:19:01.650
the heavy favorite for a very long time.

854
00:19:02.170 --> 00:19:02.949
She is,

855
00:19:02.989 --> 00:19:03.910
uh,

856
00:19:04.010 --> 00:19:04.839
if you go back,

857
00:19:04.890 --> 00:19:05.319
uh,

858
00:19:05.449 --> 00:19:05.609
you know,

859
00:19:05.729 --> 00:19:07.969
she was in the 70s and 80s for a long time

860
00:19:08.089 --> 00:19:08.770
and popped up,

861
00:19:08.869 --> 00:19:09.910
go to give me a month here,

862
00:19:10.010 --> 00:19:10.160
Adam,

863
00:19:10.810 --> 00:19:11.750
uh,

864
00:19:11.770 --> 00:19:12.650
this is the month chart.

865
00:19:12.689 --> 00:19:13.359
You see her,

866
00:19:13.839 --> 00:19:15.040
give her a high point there,

867
00:19:15.130 --> 00:19:18.109
which is around uh July 23rd or so.

868
00:19:18.489 --> 00:19:18.969
Uh,

869
00:19:19.010 --> 00:19:21.089
you see her pop up a little bit longer,

870
00:19:21.189 --> 00:19:22.670
maybe to 98% there.

871
00:19:23.479 --> 00:19:24.750
Really kind of quote unquote,

872
00:19:24.790 --> 00:19:25.650
a sure thing,

873
00:19:25.660 --> 00:19:27.150
as we know our First Amendment is a sure thing,

874
00:19:27.189 --> 00:19:28.300
always has air quotes,

875
00:19:28.390 --> 00:19:28.630
so

876
00:19:28.829 --> 00:19:29.430
not a sure thing,

877
00:19:29.469 --> 00:19:30.349
which is at 98%.

878
00:19:30.430 --> 00:19:31.609
And this might be an example of it.

879
00:19:32.130 --> 00:19:32.619
Uh,

880
00:19:32.859 --> 00:19:33.180
this,

881
00:19:33.300 --> 00:19:35.000
you see a drop-off after this,

882
00:19:35.099 --> 00:19:37.819
and you see her drop down to the end here at 92%,

883
00:19:37.880 --> 00:19:39.000
which is where she stands

884
00:19:39.300 --> 00:19:39.900
right now.

885
00:19:40.099 --> 00:19:42.479
I've been buying shares at 91% and 92%,

886
00:19:42.819 --> 00:19:42.969
uh,

887
00:19:42.979 --> 00:19:44.699
of Marsha Blackburn to win this race.

888
00:19:44.760 --> 00:19:45.619
I think she's the favorite.

889
00:19:45.699 --> 00:19:46.599
The one

890
00:19:46.819 --> 00:19:47.459
piece of evidence,

891
00:19:47.540 --> 00:19:49.479
we discussed it briefly last week,

892
00:19:49.780 --> 00:19:50.930
is a poll that came out,

893
00:19:50.979 --> 00:19:53.680
which was a poll associated with her challenger,

894
00:19:54.239 --> 00:19:54.420
uh,

895
00:19:54.510 --> 00:19:56.530
that had this as a 4-point race.

896
00:19:56.660 --> 00:19:59.599
Every other piece of evidence we have is that this is a double-digit race.

897
00:20:00.099 --> 00:20:00.630
So,

898
00:20:01.410 --> 00:20:02.400
I do think she'll win.

899
00:20:02.650 --> 00:20:05.130
Getting 8% in a day or two is fantastic.

900
00:20:05.280 --> 00:20:05.609
Uh,

901
00:20:05.770 --> 00:20:06.199
take it.

902
00:20:06.530 --> 00:20:06.810
Uh,

903
00:20:06.930 --> 00:20:07.160
you know,

904
00:20:07.569 --> 00:20:09.209
this is a weird race because John Rose is

905
00:20:09.209 --> 00:20:11.170
the challenger and Monty Fitz is another guy.

906
00:20:11.180 --> 00:20:12.760
I've talked to a bunch of conservatives,

907
00:20:13.050 --> 00:20:13.199
you know,

908
00:20:13.420 --> 00:20:15.530
sort of long-term conservatives who really like Monty,

909
00:20:15.650 --> 00:20:15.770
uh,

910
00:20:15.890 --> 00:20:16.349
Fritz

911
00:20:16.569 --> 00:20:17.050
as the,

912
00:20:17.109 --> 00:20:17.910
as the opponent.

913
00:20:18.170 --> 00:20:18.290
Uh,

914
00:20:18.410 --> 00:20:18.609
uh,

915
00:20:18.689 --> 00:20:18.849
you know,

916
00:20:19.089 --> 00:20:20.829
he's inching up a little bit to 2%,

917
00:20:21.170 --> 00:20:22.050
but I don't think he's,

918
00:20:22.170 --> 00:20:23.400
he's going to be the winner here.

919
00:20:23.449 --> 00:20:23.770
But really,

920
00:20:23.849 --> 00:20:24.130
I don't know.

921
00:20:24.209 --> 00:20:24.329
I mean,

922
00:20:24.369 --> 00:20:24.689
it's not,

923
00:20:24.810 --> 00:20:25.050
I'm,

924
00:20:25.130 --> 00:20:27.770
I'm on Blackburn to a relatively large position.

925
00:20:28.109 --> 00:20:28.969
On Blackburn,

926
00:20:29.479 --> 00:20:29.800
but,

927
00:20:29.920 --> 00:20:30.439
uh,

928
00:20:30.560 --> 00:20:33.319
there's enough questions here that I'm probably not gonna go all in.

929
00:20:33.599 --> 00:20:33.729
And,

930
00:20:33.829 --> 00:20:34.030
and,

931
00:20:34.189 --> 00:20:34.359
you know,

932
00:20:34.439 --> 00:20:38.819
for an all-in result at 8% is nice because you're putting a lot of money behind that,

933
00:20:39.119 --> 00:20:39.280
uh,

934
00:20:39.359 --> 00:20:39.510
you know,

935
00:20:39.589 --> 00:20:42.670
whatever percentage of your portfolio you think is appropriate there.

936
00:20:42.839 --> 00:20:44.439
And then one last race here before we go,

937
00:20:44.520 --> 00:20:45.359
this is actually,

938
00:20:45.520 --> 00:20:45.839
so that one,

939
00:20:45.910 --> 00:20:47.380
that Tennessee race is on Thursday,

940
00:20:47.650 --> 00:20:47.800
uh,

941
00:20:47.910 --> 00:20:48.790
and then we go to,

942
00:20:49.000 --> 00:20:49.170
uh,

943
00:20:49.280 --> 00:20:49.949
next week.

944
00:20:50.239 --> 00:20:53.400
This one I wanted to make you aware of is interesting as well for a couple of reasons.

945
00:20:53.520 --> 00:20:55.380
This is the South Carolina Special

946
00:20:55.719 --> 00:20:57.040
Senate primary.

947
00:20:57.390 --> 00:20:57.849
Um,

948
00:20:58.069 --> 00:20:58.579
and this is,

949
00:20:58.630 --> 00:20:59.069
uh,

950
00:20:59.150 --> 00:21:01.410
the race with who's going to replace,

951
00:21:02.069 --> 00:21:02.729
um,

952
00:21:03.050 --> 00:21:03.540
uh,

953
00:21:03.550 --> 00:21:04.229
Lindsey Graham,

954
00:21:04.430 --> 00:21:04.550
right?

955
00:21:04.660 --> 00:21:05.859
Lindsey Graham passes away.

956
00:21:06.150 --> 00:21:06.479
Obviously,

957
00:21:06.750 --> 00:21:07.770
Donald Trump comes out and says,

958
00:21:07.869 --> 00:21:08.020
uh,

959
00:21:08.069 --> 00:21:08.869
I want the sister.

960
00:21:09.030 --> 00:21:09.109
Uh,

961
00:21:09.180 --> 00:21:09.489
this is,

962
00:21:09.510 --> 00:21:10.170
uh,

963
00:21:10.189 --> 00:21:11.449
Graham's Nordone,

964
00:21:11.709 --> 00:21:11.780
uh,

965
00:21:11.910 --> 00:21:13.089
Darlene Graham Nordone.

966
00:21:13.430 --> 00:21:14.385
She is the Uh,

967
00:21:14.395 --> 00:21:14.714
replacement there.

968
00:21:14.755 --> 00:21:16.224
Do we have that market by any chance?

969
00:21:16.474 --> 00:21:17.155
She is the favorite,

970
00:21:17.214 --> 00:21:17.584
but it's,

971
00:21:17.755 --> 00:21:19.234
there's a lot of room for her to run.

972
00:21:19.344 --> 00:21:21.145
She's at 62% right now.

973
00:21:21.474 --> 00:21:22.905
Russell Frye is at 20%,

974
00:21:23.005 --> 00:21:24.135
increasing quickly.

975
00:21:24.435 --> 00:21:26.734
Russell Frye was the guy that Trump

976
00:21:27.194 --> 00:21:30.334
wanted initially by reporting behind the scenes type reporting.

977
00:21:30.979 --> 00:21:32.060
Wanted Fry initially,

978
00:21:32.140 --> 00:21:32.939
was talked out of it.

979
00:21:33.060 --> 00:21:34.560
Frye is in Congress

980
00:21:34.849 --> 00:21:35.020
now.

981
00:21:35.099 --> 00:21:36.819
I'm getting some of these things confused,

982
00:21:36.939 --> 00:21:38.540
are confusing me off the top of my head,

983
00:21:38.739 --> 00:21:39.140
but he's at,

984
00:21:39.180 --> 00:21:39.540
uh,

985
00:21:39.650 --> 00:21:40.680
he's at 20% now,

986
00:21:40.819 --> 00:21:42.050
which is rising quickly.

987
00:21:42.380 --> 00:21:44.119
Ralph Norman is an interesting one.

988
00:21:44.459 --> 00:21:45.410
Norman's at 18%.

989
00:21:45.459 --> 00:21:46.939
Here's what I like about the Norman play.

990
00:21:48.699 --> 00:21:50.079
We did a lot in the South Carolina,

991
00:21:50.150 --> 00:21:50.449
uh,

992
00:21:50.500 --> 00:21:50.939
uh,

993
00:21:50.949 --> 00:21:52.020
gubernatorial nominate,

994
00:21:52.030 --> 00:21:52.459
uh,

995
00:21:52.469 --> 00:21:52.910
nomination.

996
00:21:52.989 --> 00:21:54.170
He was in that race,

997
00:21:54.189 --> 00:21:54.489
and

998
00:21:54.819 --> 00:21:58.170
Norman has a pretty locked-in constituency.

999
00:21:58.469 --> 00:22:02.349
If you think of him as almost like the Nikki Haley constituent constituency in,

1000
00:22:02.410 --> 00:22:03.329
in South Carolina,

1001
00:22:03.430 --> 00:22:04.069
not when she was running,

1002
00:22:04.109 --> 00:22:04.729
but now.

1003
00:22:05.229 --> 00:22:07.609
So people who are of that profile,

1004
00:22:07.790 --> 00:22:09.680
Norman has been endorsed by Haley,

1005
00:22:10.109 --> 00:22:10.530
um,

1006
00:22:10.910 --> 00:22:11.770
really like her,

1007
00:22:11.839 --> 00:22:13.589
and there's about a 20%,

1008
00:22:13.670 --> 00:22:14.810
25%

1009
00:22:15.229 --> 00:22:15.790
grouping.

1010
00:22:16.329 --> 00:22:16.949
In

1011
00:22:17.510 --> 00:22:19.910
South Carolina who really like Norman.

1012
00:22:20.609 --> 00:22:21.189
My view,

1013
00:22:21.489 --> 00:22:21.890
however,

1014
00:22:22.010 --> 00:22:22.609
is

1015
00:22:22.930 --> 00:22:25.250
despite when we have a primary debate tonight,

1016
00:22:25.329 --> 00:22:26.150
so this could change,

1017
00:22:26.290 --> 00:22:28.270
and I'm not going big until I see this debate.

1018
00:22:28.729 --> 00:22:30.130
But if Graham performs well,

1019
00:22:30.290 --> 00:22:31.829
she's gonna probably go

1020
00:22:32.520 --> 00:22:35.160
absolutely crazy and go up to 90-something%.

1021
00:22:35.449 --> 00:22:36.310
And I think that could happen

1022
00:22:36.770 --> 00:22:36.969
tonight.

1023
00:22:37.560 --> 00:22:38.030
Um,

1024
00:22:38.089 --> 00:22:40.000
if she does not,

1025
00:22:40.239 --> 00:22:40.680
this is again,

1026
00:22:40.880 --> 00:22:41.859
you have a runoff here,

1027
00:22:42.280 --> 00:22:43.359
so it's the top two.

1028
00:22:43.599 --> 00:22:46.869
I think there's a good chance Norman actually wins the first round,

1029
00:22:46.949 --> 00:22:48.699
but I don't think Norman can win

1030
00:22:49.160 --> 00:22:49.969
in a runoff

1031
00:22:50.119 --> 00:22:51.180
in this state because

1032
00:22:51.560 --> 00:22:52.520
Trump doesn't like him,

1033
00:22:52.810 --> 00:22:53.810
and Trump will come out,

1034
00:22:53.880 --> 00:22:55.839
whether it's Fry or Graham that somehow get through.

1035
00:22:55.880 --> 00:22:56.880
If they're going against Norman,

1036
00:22:56.959 --> 00:22:58.500
he will come out and I think strongly

1037
00:22:58.800 --> 00:23:00.239
endorse the opponent.

1038
00:23:00.479 --> 00:23:03.359
So what you're talking about here is I think there's value in Graham.

1039
00:23:03.930 --> 00:23:07.260
If you have any ability to project how she's gonna do in this debate.

1040
00:23:07.540 --> 00:23:07.829
If not,

1041
00:23:07.900 --> 00:23:09.000
I wouldn't go into that yet,

1042
00:23:09.140 --> 00:23:11.400
but the no on Norman is interesting to me.

1043
00:23:11.609 --> 00:23:12.660
18%,

1044
00:23:12.819 --> 00:23:13.890
and Norman just does,

1045
00:23:14.010 --> 00:23:17.969
I don't think he has the soul of the Republican Party right now.

1046
00:23:18.219 --> 00:23:20.140
He may show well in this first round,

1047
00:23:20.459 --> 00:23:22.420
but I think it's gonna be difficult for him

1048
00:23:22.420 --> 00:23:25.239
to climb above unless there's some sort of crazy,

1049
00:23:25.680 --> 00:23:26.089
uh,

1050
00:23:26.099 --> 00:23:26.260
thing.

1051
00:23:26.339 --> 00:23:27.140
But for 18%,

1052
00:23:27.219 --> 00:23:27.859
I don't mind it.

1053
00:23:27.939 --> 00:23:28.239
So,

1054
00:23:28.329 --> 00:23:29.119
that's another one

1055
00:23:29.300 --> 00:23:29.619
to look at.

1056
00:23:29.699 --> 00:23:30.369
That's a lot of picks.

1057
00:23:30.380 --> 00:23:32.260
I gave you a lot of information about what we're looking.

1058
00:23:34.050 --> 00:23:34.660
And I can,

1059
00:23:34.739 --> 00:23:36.060
I know sometimes that can be overwhelming.

1060
00:23:36.219 --> 00:23:36.650
One of the,

1061
00:23:36.739 --> 00:23:39.939
probably the most common question we've received since we started this was,

1062
00:23:40.020 --> 00:23:40.140
hey,

1063
00:23:40.250 --> 00:23:41.819
can you just give me a freaking list of the picks?

1064
00:23:41.939 --> 00:23:42.020
Uh,

1065
00:23:42.140 --> 00:23:43.180
you talk about them all the time,

1066
00:23:43.260 --> 00:23:44.079
but I'm in my car.

1067
00:23:44.420 --> 00:23:45.619
I can't write them down,

1068
00:23:45.900 --> 00:23:45.979
uh,

1069
00:23:46.060 --> 00:23:46.209
you know,

1070
00:23:46.290 --> 00:23:46.459
and I,

1071
00:23:46.500 --> 00:23:46.579
I,

1072
00:23:46.689 --> 00:23:47.979
I understand that and I appreciate it.

1073
00:23:48.060 --> 00:23:49.819
I try to give them to you at predictableShow.com.

1074
00:23:49.859 --> 00:23:51.760
I'll give it to you on social media as well.

1075
00:23:52.219 --> 00:23:53.099
None of that's changing.

1076
00:23:53.140 --> 00:23:54.800
We have a premium tier that started.

1077
00:23:55.260 --> 00:23:57.760
What the premium tier is gonna get though is that sort of like

1078
00:23:58.099 --> 00:23:58.900
list of all of them,

1079
00:23:59.079 --> 00:23:59.459
right?

1080
00:23:59.780 --> 00:24:00.449
And I,

1081
00:24:00.540 --> 00:24:01.359
I went through the list.

1082
00:24:01.459 --> 00:24:02.079
There's a lot,

1083
00:24:02.280 --> 00:24:02.619
OK?

1084
00:24:03.030 --> 00:24:05.560
There is a lot of different uh positions that I have.

1085
00:24:05.729 --> 00:24:07.589
Some I barely even remember taking,

1086
00:24:07.650 --> 00:24:08.060
frankly,

1087
00:24:08.130 --> 00:24:11.569
but they're there and I'm gonna I'm gonna unleash the entire list.

1088
00:24:11.989 --> 00:24:14.130
We're doing a record release party on Friday

1089
00:24:14.430 --> 00:24:15.709
for paid subscribers.

1090
00:24:15.910 --> 00:24:17.150
If you wanna be a premium subscriber,

1091
00:24:17.229 --> 00:24:18.449
go to predictableShow.com.

1092
00:24:18.540 --> 00:24:19.290
There you sign up,

1093
00:24:19.650 --> 00:24:19.859
uh,

1094
00:24:19.949 --> 00:24:19.979
you,

1095
00:24:20.109 --> 00:24:20.229
you,

1096
00:24:20.310 --> 00:24:20.430
you,

1097
00:24:20.520 --> 00:24:20.739
you,

1098
00:24:20.750 --> 00:24:21.339
uh,

1099
00:24:21.349 --> 00:24:21.430
get,

1100
00:24:21.550 --> 00:24:22.349
go to the premium tier,

1101
00:24:22.390 --> 00:24:24.069
make sure you select that premium tier and you will get it,

1102
00:24:24.150 --> 00:24:26.449
you will get all these picks and you will get kind of like a

1103
00:24:27.770 --> 00:24:30.040
I hope to make it a little bit prettier than a spreadsheet,

1104
00:24:30.079 --> 00:24:30.859
but basically,

1105
00:24:30.900 --> 00:24:31.719
every single thing,

1106
00:24:31.880 --> 00:24:32.219
how,

1107
00:24:32.439 --> 00:24:33.420
what the position is,

1108
00:24:33.760 --> 00:24:37.109
and uh what size of a position I took on it,

1109
00:24:37.119 --> 00:24:38.660
which kind of indicates confidence

1110
00:24:39.000 --> 00:24:39.400
level.

1111
00:24:40.479 --> 00:24:43.760
That is kind of where we are with that and we're gonna talk it out.

1112
00:24:43.800 --> 00:24:46.520
I'm gonna describe how you get that information on a day to day basis,

1113
00:24:46.599 --> 00:24:47.510
how we update it,

1114
00:24:47.959 --> 00:24:49.040
show you how to use it,

1115
00:24:49.150 --> 00:24:50.199
how to access it.

1116
00:24:50.390 --> 00:24:51.520
It's all part of your premium

1117
00:24:51.520 --> 00:24:54.180
subscription and it's available at predictableshow.com.

1118
00:24:54.270 --> 00:24:54.680
If,

1119
00:24:55.000 --> 00:24:56.369
if you're someone who's just looking at this and saying,

1120
00:24:56.479 --> 00:24:56.589
look,

1121
00:24:56.640 --> 00:24:58.239
I just wanna get the information still,

1122
00:24:58.339 --> 00:25:00.000
like stop bothering me about the premium subscription.

1123
00:25:00.040 --> 00:25:00.359
I get it.

1124
00:25:00.410 --> 00:25:01.079
That's totally fine.

1125
00:25:01.160 --> 00:25:02.280
We love having you here for free,

1126
00:25:02.359 --> 00:25:03.339
no pressure whatsoever.

1127
00:25:03.880 --> 00:25:06.819
If you wanna get the kind of detailed thing because you're trading these markets,

1128
00:25:07.239 --> 00:25:09.660
I do think this is gonna pay for itself quite easily.

1129
00:25:10.109 --> 00:25:10.359
Uh,

1130
00:25:10.439 --> 00:25:10.719
it's,

1131
00:25:10.760 --> 00:25:11.040
uh,

1132
00:25:11.079 --> 00:25:12.510
it's the type of service that,

1133
00:25:12.619 --> 00:25:12.760
you know,

1134
00:25:12.869 --> 00:25:13.000
look,

1135
00:25:13.109 --> 00:25:14.239
we're not an investment advice show.

1136
00:25:14.280 --> 00:25:15.319
I can't guarantee you anything,

1137
00:25:15.359 --> 00:25:16.079
you never know.

1138
00:25:16.359 --> 00:25:16.959
But we've done very,

1139
00:25:17.020 --> 00:25:17.699
very well

1140
00:25:17.839 --> 00:25:18.760
on these markets so far.

1141
00:25:18.849 --> 00:25:20.219
Let me give you a rundown real quick,

1142
00:25:20.640 --> 00:25:20.760
uh,

1143
00:25:20.839 --> 00:25:22.750
if you want to see how we've done so far.

1144
00:25:23.079 --> 00:25:24.520
We have different sizes of markets.

1145
00:25:24.599 --> 00:25:25.099
They start,

1146
00:25:25.199 --> 00:25:25.380
uh,

1147
00:25:25.390 --> 00:25:26.530
with the marker market,

1148
00:25:26.640 --> 00:25:29.310
the smallest size of any investment that I make,

1149
00:25:29.400 --> 00:25:30.119
kind of just a mark,

1150
00:25:30.319 --> 00:25:30.709
a market,

1151
00:25:30.760 --> 00:25:31.839
so I remember to look at it.

1152
00:25:32.040 --> 00:25:33.760
We've hit on those 42

1153
00:25:33.920 --> 00:25:37.099
and 13 is our record 76.3% success rate.

1154
00:25:37.319 --> 00:25:38.439
A small position.

1155
00:25:38.750 --> 00:25:40.030
A little bit of more confidence,

1156
00:25:40.069 --> 00:25:40.469
but no,

1157
00:25:40.670 --> 00:25:40.680
no,

1158
00:25:40.869 --> 00:25:42.010
no big shakes here,

1159
00:25:42.109 --> 00:25:42.310
right?

1160
00:25:42.420 --> 00:25:42.540
Uh,

1161
00:25:42.609 --> 00:25:42.869
that is,

1162
00:25:42.949 --> 00:25:44.219
we're 41 and 9.

1163
00:25:44.390 --> 00:25:46.699
We've hit 82% of those positions.

1164
00:25:47.069 --> 00:25:47.400
Medium,

1165
00:25:47.459 --> 00:25:49.310
we're starting to get into some pretty good confidence here.

1166
00:25:49.410 --> 00:25:51.439
This is money that I would be annoyed to lose.

1167
00:25:51.709 --> 00:25:51.979
Uh,

1168
00:25:52.109 --> 00:25:52.229
you know,

1169
00:25:52.310 --> 00:25:53.579
it's not a couple of cents here and there,

1170
00:25:53.630 --> 00:25:53.930
but

1171
00:25:54.069 --> 00:25:56.229
our medium picks so far this election season,

1172
00:25:56.310 --> 00:25:58.010
we are 43-1.

1173
00:25:58.349 --> 00:26:01.530
We've hit a 97.8% of those picks.

1174
00:26:01.900 --> 00:26:02.150
Again,

1175
00:26:02.270 --> 00:26:03.469
do I think this is worth it for you if

1176
00:26:03.469 --> 00:26:05.709
you're investing in these markets to get the premium subscription?

1177
00:26:05.829 --> 00:26:06.189
I do.

1178
00:26:06.989 --> 00:26:07.790
I think you're gonna do very,

1179
00:26:07.869 --> 00:26:08.770
very well here

1180
00:26:08.910 --> 00:26:10.079
and easily pay for it on itself.

1181
00:26:10.589 --> 00:26:11.619
Large positions when we're like,

1182
00:26:11.630 --> 00:26:11.829
all right,

1183
00:26:11.949 --> 00:26:12.979
they were really confident in this,

1184
00:26:13.020 --> 00:26:14.229
we're taking a large position.

1185
00:26:14.469 --> 00:26:15.050
We are

1186
00:26:15.150 --> 00:26:16.709
25-0.

1187
00:26:16.869 --> 00:26:19.229
We've hit 100% of our large positions.

1188
00:26:19.300 --> 00:26:21.510
There's only one level that's above large.

1189
00:26:21.959 --> 00:26:23.520
And that's the all-in when I'm like,

1190
00:26:23.569 --> 00:26:24.229
OK,

1191
00:26:24.650 --> 00:26:25.839
every single cent I can get,

1192
00:26:26.040 --> 00:26:27.010
every free cent I have,

1193
00:26:27.089 --> 00:26:27.689
I'm going into this.

1194
00:26:27.729 --> 00:26:29.000
This doesn't mean every dollar you have,

1195
00:26:29.050 --> 00:26:29.719
to be clear,

1196
00:26:29.969 --> 00:26:31.829
don't wipe out your entire life

1197
00:26:32.170 --> 00:26:32.489
because of this,

1198
00:26:32.569 --> 00:26:34.189
but this is every free dollar

1199
00:26:34.369 --> 00:26:36.430
that I have in my prediction market account.

1200
00:26:36.849 --> 00:26:36.930
Uh,

1201
00:26:37.010 --> 00:26:38.359
we go in on the all-in positions.

1202
00:26:38.439 --> 00:26:39.770
We've done that 6 times so far,

1203
00:26:39.849 --> 00:26:40.650
we're 6-0 there.

1204
00:26:40.709 --> 00:26:40.949
So,

1205
00:26:41.130 --> 00:26:42.630
large and all-in positions total,

1206
00:26:42.750 --> 00:26:44.530
we're 31-0,

1207
00:26:44.770 --> 00:26:46.000
and if you add in mediums,

1208
00:26:46.329 --> 00:26:46.930
we're what,

1209
00:26:47.130 --> 00:26:48.770
74-1.

1210
00:26:49.719 --> 00:26:49.869
Now,

1211
00:26:49.880 --> 00:26:50.819
is that good enough

1212
00:26:51.040 --> 00:26:53.160
to get a premium subscription if you're trading these markets?

1213
00:26:53.280 --> 00:26:55.099
I would argue the answer to that is yes.

1214
00:26:55.319 --> 00:26:56.910
And we're gonna give you all those picks,

1215
00:26:57.079 --> 00:26:58.420
our premium subscription.

1216
00:26:58.750 --> 00:26:59.069
Uh,

1217
00:26:59.119 --> 00:26:59.270
uh,

1218
00:26:59.349 --> 00:27:00.949
in our kind of record release party,

1219
00:27:01.099 --> 00:27:02.260
Stu's Picks record release party.

1220
00:27:02.310 --> 00:27:04.219
This will be an updated thing that you get all the time

1221
00:27:04.430 --> 00:27:05.949
if you're part of the premium tier.

1222
00:27:06.069 --> 00:27:06.329
So,

1223
00:27:06.589 --> 00:27:08.930
join us at predictableshow.com.

1224
00:27:09.020 --> 00:27:11.680
We've got some great information when it comes to Hollywood

1225
00:27:11.680 --> 00:27:13.630
and another recommendation we made on the free side,

1226
00:27:13.709 --> 00:27:14.930
we still make those on the free side.

1227
00:27:15.150 --> 00:27:16.550
It's not like premium only gets all the,

1228
00:27:16.670 --> 00:27:17.069
the picks.

1229
00:27:17.189 --> 00:27:18.750
You'll still get lots of them on the free side,

1230
00:27:18.949 --> 00:27:19.250
but,

1231
00:27:19.479 --> 00:27:19.900
uh,

1232
00:27:19.910 --> 00:27:21.949
we did this one on the free side just the other day.

1233
00:27:22.020 --> 00:27:23.109
It's already paid off.

1234
00:27:23.229 --> 00:27:24.930
We'll show you if there's any more room to run

1235
00:27:25.229 --> 00:27:25.609
next.

1236
00:27:46.790 --> 00:27:48.920
Let me bring you back in time for a new segment,

1237
00:27:49.040 --> 00:27:49.349
uh,

1238
00:27:49.439 --> 00:27:49.560
well,

1239
00:27:49.660 --> 00:27:52.069
a segment we've done a couple of times called Here's One I Kinda like,

1240
00:27:52.079 --> 00:27:52.280
and,

1241
00:27:52.359 --> 00:27:55.319
and what I wanna bring you back in time to the Dodd-Frank era.

1242
00:27:55.390 --> 00:27:56.270
Remember Dodd,

1243
00:27:56.359 --> 00:27:57.439
Remember Frank,

1244
00:27:57.800 --> 00:27:58.160
uh,

1245
00:27:58.239 --> 00:27:59.839
the days of Dodd-Frank.

1246
00:27:59.910 --> 00:28:03.479
And in buried in the Dodd-Frank bill,

1247
00:28:03.540 --> 00:28:06.640
there was a conversations going on at that time about prediction markets.

1248
00:28:07.119 --> 00:28:08.050
Are they gonna be rise?

1249
00:28:08.089 --> 00:28:09.560
Are people gonna be talking about them a lot?

1250
00:28:09.810 --> 00:28:11.250
And a couple of people in Hollywood were like,

1251
00:28:11.329 --> 00:28:11.569
well,

1252
00:28:11.729 --> 00:28:13.229
we don't want people

1253
00:28:14.530 --> 00:28:17.089
predicting our num box office numbers.

1254
00:28:17.170 --> 00:28:17.560
That could be,

1255
00:28:17.609 --> 00:28:19.510
that could lead to catastrophe or something.

1256
00:28:19.849 --> 00:28:20.209
I don't know.

1257
00:28:20.369 --> 00:28:21.969
One of Barney Frank's friends was like,

1258
00:28:22.050 --> 00:28:22.250
hey,

1259
00:28:22.329 --> 00:28:22.930
can you put it,

1260
00:28:23.050 --> 00:28:25.189
just throw a little thing in there about prediction markets

1261
00:28:25.410 --> 00:28:26.910
and box office receipts.

1262
00:28:27.489 --> 00:28:30.170
Don't just ban them inexplicably in this middle of this,

1263
00:28:30.290 --> 00:28:30.489
this,

1264
00:28:30.530 --> 00:28:30.839
uh,

1265
00:28:30.849 --> 00:28:31.329
financial bill,

1266
00:28:31.400 --> 00:28:32.729
which doesn't ban prediction markets,

1267
00:28:32.890 --> 00:28:34.310
just bans prediction markets

1268
00:28:34.709 --> 00:28:35.189
about

1269
00:28:35.569 --> 00:28:36.250
box office.

1270
00:28:36.932 --> 00:28:39.302
which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever,

1271
00:28:39.503 --> 00:28:40.593
but it's the law.

1272
00:28:40.942 --> 00:28:41.822
So we follow these things,

1273
00:28:41.863 --> 00:28:42.463
I suppose.

1274
00:28:42.703 --> 00:28:43.493
You have to.

1275
00:28:43.782 --> 00:28:45.302
That's the world that we live in.

1276
00:28:45.383 --> 00:28:45.762
But

1277
00:28:46.062 --> 00:28:46.692
I will say,

1278
00:28:46.863 --> 00:28:47.522
if you happen to be,

1279
00:28:47.623 --> 00:28:47.733
uh,

1280
00:28:47.782 --> 00:28:48.542
this is what's interesting is,

1281
00:28:48.623 --> 00:28:48.743
you know,

1282
00:28:48.863 --> 00:28:49.652
Calci is a,

1283
00:28:49.662 --> 00:28:49.892
uh,

1284
00:28:49.902 --> 00:28:50.942
prediction market based in the US.

1285
00:28:51.062 --> 00:28:53.623
Polymarkett US is also based in the US.

1286
00:28:53.863 --> 00:28:54.022
However,

1287
00:28:54.093 --> 00:28:55.532
there's a poly-market International,

1288
00:28:55.542 --> 00:28:56.302
which does not have,

1289
00:28:56.383 --> 00:28:56.703
it's not,

1290
00:28:56.822 --> 00:28:57.103
you know,

1291
00:28:57.223 --> 00:28:58.603
overseen by the United States.

1292
00:28:58.822 --> 00:28:59.022
Uh,

1293
00:28:59.182 --> 00:29:02.133
so if you happen to be traveling out of the country or whatever you're doing,

1294
00:29:02.383 --> 00:29:03.703
if you're on polymarket US,

1295
00:29:03.822 --> 00:29:04.843
this particular

1296
00:29:05.142 --> 00:29:05.642
market.

1297
00:29:05.906 --> 00:29:07.906
caught my eye and I think it's a fascinating one.

1298
00:29:07.956 --> 00:29:08.156
It's,

1299
00:29:08.225 --> 00:29:10.135
I would say it's not even one I kinda like.

1300
00:29:10.326 --> 00:29:11.826
It's one I kind of love.

1301
00:29:12.115 --> 00:29:12.265
Uh,

1302
00:29:12.316 --> 00:29:12.916
even now,

1303
00:29:12.995 --> 00:29:14.345
I think I still kind of like it.

1304
00:29:14.395 --> 00:29:16.015
We talked about this a few days ago

1305
00:29:16.276 --> 00:29:17.635
on PredictableShow.com,

1306
00:29:17.715 --> 00:29:19.215
so you got this information earlier.

1307
00:29:19.475 --> 00:29:19.635
Uh,

1308
00:29:19.676 --> 00:29:20.615
but this is,

1309
00:29:20.635 --> 00:29:20.995
uh,

1310
00:29:21.105 --> 00:29:22.276
a market about,

1311
00:29:22.515 --> 00:29:22.826
uh,

1312
00:29:22.836 --> 00:29:23.375
Spider-Man.

1313
00:29:23.436 --> 00:29:23.546
Now,

1314
00:29:23.556 --> 00:29:23.725
this is,

1315
00:29:23.816 --> 00:29:24.916
you probably saw the headlines.

1316
00:29:25.115 --> 00:29:25.625
Spider-Man,

1317
00:29:25.635 --> 00:29:27.816
Brand New Day opening weekend box office

1318
00:29:28.475 --> 00:29:30.776
officially smashes Avengers Endgame

1319
00:29:31.156 --> 00:29:31.546
record,

1320
00:29:31.595 --> 00:29:32.395
or at least,

1321
00:29:32.515 --> 00:29:34.095
it depends on what records you're looking at.

1322
00:29:34.196 --> 00:29:35.135
When we're talking about

1323
00:29:35.760 --> 00:29:37.079
Overall box office receipts,

1324
00:29:37.119 --> 00:29:39.160
it brought in $355 million

1325
00:29:39.800 --> 00:29:42.189
which is $2 million away from the all-time record,

1326
00:29:42.199 --> 00:29:43.060
which was set by

1327
00:29:43.199 --> 00:29:44.560
Avengers Endgame,

1328
00:29:44.800 --> 00:29:45.510
pre-COVID,

1329
00:29:45.599 --> 00:29:46.150
by the way.

1330
00:29:46.439 --> 00:29:49.479
So this is the highest that's ever happened since COVID.

1331
00:29:49.760 --> 00:29:50.079
Obviously,

1332
00:29:50.119 --> 00:29:52.869
more people were going to the theaters back in the COVID days.

1333
00:29:53.160 --> 00:29:54.280
We've had some inflation,

1334
00:29:54.359 --> 00:29:55.819
there's other things that are complicated,

1335
00:29:55.920 --> 00:29:56.150
so,

1336
00:29:56.239 --> 00:29:56.349
you know,

1337
00:29:56.439 --> 00:29:57.520
a little apples and oranges,

1338
00:29:57.599 --> 00:29:57.819
but

1339
00:29:57.959 --> 00:30:00.599
all we're talking about is the main number when it comes to prediction markets.

1340
00:30:01.119 --> 00:30:01.380
Now,

1341
00:30:01.560 --> 00:30:01.910
uh,

1342
00:30:01.959 --> 00:30:02.160
the,

1343
00:30:02.239 --> 00:30:04.020
the market that I absolutely love here

1344
00:30:04.359 --> 00:30:05.339
is about,

1345
00:30:05.439 --> 00:30:05.989
um,

1346
00:30:06.000 --> 00:30:07.540
what is going to be the highest growing,

1347
00:30:07.599 --> 00:30:08.010
um,

1348
00:30:08.020 --> 00:30:09.599
grossing picture of the year.

1349
00:30:10.500 --> 00:30:11.569
Let me just set the stage here.

1350
00:30:12.069 --> 00:30:13.260
Spider-Man Brand New Day is,

1351
00:30:13.270 --> 00:30:17.359
is kind of seen in Hollywood as the most valuable IP

1352
00:30:17.910 --> 00:30:18.410
um

1353
00:30:18.790 --> 00:30:19.729
of any.

1354
00:30:20.160 --> 00:30:20.439
Uh,

1355
00:30:20.510 --> 00:30:20.859
any

1356
00:30:21.359 --> 00:30:22.380
series franchise

1357
00:30:22.800 --> 00:30:24.599
because it's kind of seen as relatable to every,

1358
00:30:24.689 --> 00:30:25.310
it's not like just,

1359
00:30:25.359 --> 00:30:25.729
oh well,

1360
00:30:25.959 --> 00:30:29.189
Tony Stark is a billionaire and there's a bunch of crazy superheroes going around.

1361
00:30:29.439 --> 00:30:31.239
Avengers is a great property for,

1362
00:30:31.280 --> 00:30:31.560
uh,

1363
00:30:31.599 --> 00:30:32.349
the movie studios,

1364
00:30:32.430 --> 00:30:32.739
but

1365
00:30:33.160 --> 00:30:34.479
Spider-Man kind of seen as like the,

1366
00:30:34.520 --> 00:30:35.280
the longest lasting,

1367
00:30:35.359 --> 00:30:36.069
the most legs,

1368
00:30:36.239 --> 00:30:36.589
all right?

1369
00:30:36.800 --> 00:30:39.079
And I'm not just saying that because spiders have 8 legs,

1370
00:30:39.189 --> 00:30:40.800
which I just realized I had a major pun there,

1371
00:30:40.880 --> 00:30:41.469
so sorry about that.

1372
00:30:41.520 --> 00:30:42.640
It has the most legs.

1373
00:30:43.359 --> 00:30:43.739
So,

1374
00:30:43.920 --> 00:30:44.280
uh,

1375
00:30:44.390 --> 00:30:45.229
Spider-Man comes out,

1376
00:30:45.280 --> 00:30:46.459
it's coming out this weekend,

1377
00:30:46.839 --> 00:30:48.880
and there's massive attention toward it,

1378
00:30:49.079 --> 00:30:50.260
and it is testing

1379
00:30:50.439 --> 00:30:51.750
off the charts with audiences,

1380
00:30:51.930 --> 00:30:52.040
right?

1381
00:30:52.130 --> 00:30:52.640
This is like,

1382
00:30:52.819 --> 00:30:52.829
yeah,

1383
00:30:52.920 --> 00:30:54.910
I don't know what the Rotten Tomatoes score is of,

1384
00:30:54.959 --> 00:30:55.439
uh,

1385
00:30:55.599 --> 00:30:56.020
in that one,

1386
00:30:56.030 --> 00:30:56.359
you could,

1387
00:30:56.479 --> 00:30:57.359
you could do on Calshi,

1388
00:30:57.439 --> 00:30:59.670
but I don't know what the Rotten Tomatoes score is of Spider-Man,

1389
00:30:59.719 --> 00:31:00.939
but it's way up there in the 90s.

1390
00:31:01.229 --> 00:31:01.430
Uh,

1391
00:31:01.640 --> 00:31:02.949
all the background stuff,

1392
00:31:03.199 --> 00:31:04.420
all the industry buzz,

1393
00:31:04.680 --> 00:31:04.920
super,

1394
00:31:05.040 --> 00:31:05.229
super,

1395
00:31:05.339 --> 00:31:05.859
super

1396
00:31:06.079 --> 00:31:06.680
huge on it.

1397
00:31:07.260 --> 00:31:07.979
On the,

1398
00:31:08.119 --> 00:31:08.670
the really,

1399
00:31:08.709 --> 00:31:10.459
you look at the way that this is coming out,

1400
00:31:10.589 --> 00:31:11.739
it's gonna have this massive weekend.

1401
00:31:11.869 --> 00:31:14.270
No one expected it necessarily to do 355 million,

1402
00:31:14.349 --> 00:31:15.569
so they're way above expectations,

1403
00:31:15.750 --> 00:31:16.469
but even with that,

1404
00:31:16.510 --> 00:31:17.489
it looked like it might be

1405
00:31:17.630 --> 00:31:18.670
the top movie of the year,

1406
00:31:18.750 --> 00:31:19.630
passing Toy Story,

1407
00:31:19.660 --> 00:31:20.699
which is now number one.

1408
00:31:20.989 --> 00:31:22.140
You've got uh Odyssey,

1409
00:31:22.189 --> 00:31:23.109
which is still churning,

1410
00:31:23.189 --> 00:31:23.469
but,

1411
00:31:23.630 --> 00:31:23.989
you know,

1412
00:31:24.380 --> 00:31:26.729
somewhat of a quirky 3.5 hour

1413
00:31:27.229 --> 00:31:27.869
tale

1414
00:31:28.109 --> 00:31:30.550
that not necessarily applies to everyday Americans,

1415
00:31:30.790 --> 00:31:31.229
um,

1416
00:31:31.469 --> 00:31:32.510
even though it makes a lot of money,

1417
00:31:32.670 --> 00:31:33.890
probably not gonna be

1418
00:31:34.229 --> 00:31:35.349
superhero level money.

1419
00:31:35.670 --> 00:31:38.810
So there's one more movie that can really get in the way

1420
00:31:39.189 --> 00:31:40.630
of Spider-Man,

1421
00:31:41.030 --> 00:31:42.810
and that is Avengers

1422
00:31:43.109 --> 00:31:43.859
Doomsday.

1423
00:31:45.369 --> 00:31:46.069
So you could say,

1424
00:31:46.170 --> 00:31:46.329
OK,

1425
00:31:46.400 --> 00:31:47.290
Avengers Doomsday,

1426
00:31:47.390 --> 00:31:48.250
the last Avengers,

1427
00:31:48.329 --> 00:31:50.359
or I don't know if it was the last one cause I don't pay attention to,

1428
00:31:50.410 --> 00:31:50.959
uh,

1429
00:31:50.969 --> 00:31:51.150
to,

1430
00:31:51.420 --> 00:31:52.729
too closely to the saga,

1431
00:31:52.810 --> 00:31:53.109
but

1432
00:31:53.369 --> 00:31:53.569
the,

1433
00:31:53.650 --> 00:31:56.869
the biggest one of all time was Avengers Endgame that came out in 2019.

1434
00:31:57.329 --> 00:31:59.050
Another Avengers movie coming out later this year.

1435
00:31:59.089 --> 00:32:00.949
You should be worried whether Spider-Man

1436
00:32:01.209 --> 00:32:01.510
will

1437
00:32:01.810 --> 00:32:02.489
go to number one.

1438
00:32:02.569 --> 00:32:05.430
I was buying this in the low 1980s that Spider-Man would be

1439
00:32:05.689 --> 00:32:06.430
number one.

1440
00:32:07.010 --> 00:32:07.869
Here's the thing,

1441
00:32:08.170 --> 00:32:09.750
Avengers Doomsday

1442
00:32:10.050 --> 00:32:10.469
comes out

1443
00:32:10.930 --> 00:32:12.550
on December 18th.

1444
00:32:14.339 --> 00:32:15.839
So you've got 2 weeks,

1445
00:32:16.260 --> 00:32:20.719
2 weeks of Avengers Endgame versus 5 months potentially

1446
00:32:20.939 --> 00:32:23.280
of Spider-Man Brand New Day.

1447
00:32:23.819 --> 00:32:25.319
I love this matchup.

1448
00:32:25.660 --> 00:32:27.479
I loved it at 83 cents.

1449
00:32:27.890 --> 00:32:28.300
Uh,

1450
00:32:28.420 --> 00:32:28.939
give me the chart.

1451
00:32:29.020 --> 00:32:29.099
We,

1452
00:32:29.260 --> 00:32:29.420
we,

1453
00:32:29.540 --> 00:32:30.839
this is the poly market on it.

1454
00:32:31.060 --> 00:32:31.520
Uh,

1455
00:32:31.819 --> 00:32:33.219
you're looking at it at 83 cents.

1456
00:32:33.300 --> 00:32:35.000
I'm all over it at 83 cents.

1457
00:32:35.219 --> 00:32:35.339
Uh,

1458
00:32:35.420 --> 00:32:36.010
it rose up,

1459
00:32:36.020 --> 00:32:36.459
and honestly,

1460
00:32:36.510 --> 00:32:36.699
I'm,

1461
00:32:36.939 --> 00:32:40.079
I wish I was earlier on this cause you could see it was at 50 cent at one point.

1462
00:32:40.579 --> 00:32:40.900
Uh,

1463
00:32:41.099 --> 00:32:42.400
for Spider-Man Brand New Day.

1464
00:32:42.619 --> 00:32:44.380
It has now risen up from 83.

1465
00:32:44.459 --> 00:32:45.780
It's already up to 91.

1466
00:32:45.859 --> 00:32:47.699
There's still a few more cents to run.

1467
00:32:47.819 --> 00:32:49.180
I just don't see how it's

1468
00:32:49.380 --> 00:32:49.540
I mean,

1469
00:32:49.579 --> 00:32:51.680
Avengers Doomsday would have to have

1470
00:32:52.020 --> 00:32:53.739
the greatest two weeks of every,

1471
00:32:53.819 --> 00:32:55.199
any movie in history.

1472
00:32:55.579 --> 00:32:55.939
And by the way,

1473
00:32:55.979 --> 00:32:56.500
the buzz on,

1474
00:32:56.619 --> 00:32:56.660
uh,

1475
00:32:56.780 --> 00:32:57.189
would you say,

1476
00:32:57.300 --> 00:32:57.500
Adam,

1477
00:32:57.579 --> 00:32:58.979
the buzz on Avengers Doomsday,

1478
00:32:59.020 --> 00:33:00.119
not that positive so far?

1479
00:33:00.780 --> 00:33:01.589
Is that fair to say?

1480
00:33:02.800 --> 00:33:04.060
People are kind of tired

1481
00:33:04.280 --> 00:33:05.280
of the Marvel stuff.

1482
00:33:05.390 --> 00:33:05.520
Uh,

1483
00:33:05.640 --> 00:33:06.339
there's a lot of

1484
00:33:06.579 --> 00:33:08.119
talk about too much CGI,

1485
00:33:08.280 --> 00:33:09.790
too much AI potentially used,

1486
00:33:09.839 --> 00:33:11.150
even though I don't think they're using AI,

1487
00:33:11.199 --> 00:33:13.020
but feels AI sloppish,

1488
00:33:13.609 --> 00:33:13.920
uh,

1489
00:33:14.079 --> 00:33:15.150
recycles actor,

1490
00:33:15.199 --> 00:33:15.560
actors.

1491
00:33:15.760 --> 00:33:15.959
Oh yeah,

1492
00:33:16.000 --> 00:33:16.479
you're taking,

1493
00:33:16.560 --> 00:33:18.270
the other one was just seems so cheesy.

1494
00:33:18.520 --> 00:33:19.040
They're taking,

1495
00:33:19.160 --> 00:33:19.699
uh,

1496
00:33:19.790 --> 00:33:20.510
they're taking Iron Man,

1497
00:33:20.520 --> 00:33:22.579
and they're just making him a different character inexplicably.

1498
00:33:22.959 --> 00:33:23.319
So anyway,

1499
00:33:23.439 --> 00:33:24.189
that's the buzz on it.

1500
00:33:24.199 --> 00:33:26.579
But even if it's the greatest movie of all time,

1501
00:33:27.449 --> 00:33:31.069
It probably still won't clear what Spider-Man's going to do.

1502
00:33:31.599 --> 00:33:31.800
Uh,

1503
00:33:31.910 --> 00:33:32.150
and,

1504
00:33:32.160 --> 00:33:32.319
you know,

1505
00:33:32.400 --> 00:33:33.869
you get great numbers around the holidays,

1506
00:33:33.920 --> 00:33:36.760
which is why they release movies in December cause everybody's off,

1507
00:33:36.949 --> 00:33:37.859
everyone go see the movies.

1508
00:33:38.000 --> 00:33:39.410
I just don't believe

1509
00:33:39.560 --> 00:33:40.199
it can come close.

1510
00:33:40.270 --> 00:33:42.459
And now the markets are a little more reflecting that,

1511
00:33:42.520 --> 00:33:45.310
but I was honestly relatively late on this bandwagon.

1512
00:33:45.520 --> 00:33:46.890
I still think it's a good investment

1513
00:33:47.040 --> 00:33:48.260
at 91 cents

1514
00:33:48.400 --> 00:33:48.859
or

1515
00:33:49.000 --> 00:33:49.920
Avengers Doomsday,

1516
00:33:50.060 --> 00:33:50.510
no,

1517
00:33:50.719 --> 00:33:51.520
at 8 cents.

1518
00:33:51.599 --> 00:33:52.079
Both of those,

1519
00:33:52.160 --> 00:33:53.199
I think are good picks.

1520
00:33:53.239 --> 00:33:54.589
But there is more,

1521
00:33:54.599 --> 00:33:55.140
uh,

1522
00:33:55.160 --> 00:33:55.819
potential money.

1523
00:33:55.920 --> 00:33:56.160
By the way,

1524
00:33:56.239 --> 00:33:56.630
when I put the,

1525
00:33:56.760 --> 00:33:57.109
gave this out,

1526
00:33:57.160 --> 00:33:58.300
it was a 38%

1527
00:33:58.680 --> 00:33:59.939
annual percentage rate return.

1528
00:34:00.469 --> 00:34:00.949
Um,

1529
00:34:01.099 --> 00:34:02.890
it was a 16% raw return.

1530
00:34:03.310 --> 00:34:03.579
Uh,

1531
00:34:03.670 --> 00:34:04.650
I think we're gonna hit that

1532
00:34:04.930 --> 00:34:05.459
pretty easily,

1533
00:34:05.709 --> 00:34:06.859
especially because we didn't even think,

1534
00:34:06.869 --> 00:34:09.060
and we didn't see $355 million coming,

1535
00:34:09.149 --> 00:34:09.850
so a huge week.

1536
00:34:10.110 --> 00:34:11.389
There are two other things that I think are,

1537
00:34:11.449 --> 00:34:12.228
are three other things.

1538
00:34:12.310 --> 00:34:13.050
This is the highest,

1539
00:34:13.149 --> 00:34:13.350
uh,

1540
00:34:13.429 --> 00:34:14.070
what do we have next?

1541
00:34:14.129 --> 00:34:14.580
Um,

1542
00:34:14.830 --> 00:34:16.469
opening box office,

1543
00:34:16.590 --> 00:34:16.770
uh,

1544
00:34:16.780 --> 00:34:17.179
numbers.

1545
00:34:17.350 --> 00:34:17.418
Yeah,

1546
00:34:17.469 --> 00:34:17.750
here we go.

1547
00:34:17.790 --> 00:34:18.489
We see now,

1548
00:34:18.870 --> 00:34:21.020
is it going to be $350 million plus?

1549
00:34:21.110 --> 00:34:22.739
I just want to show you a little bit about this market,

1550
00:34:22.840 --> 00:34:24.290
these markets and how these things work.

1551
00:34:25.080 --> 00:34:25.629
If you see the,

1552
00:34:25.649 --> 00:34:25.708
uh,

1553
00:34:25.810 --> 00:34:26.010
the,

1554
00:34:26.129 --> 00:34:26.830
the titles here,

1555
00:34:27.290 --> 00:34:29.458
it's 280 million to 290,

1556
00:34:29.770 --> 00:34:29.929
uh,

1557
00:34:30.050 --> 00:34:32.280
it's 340 to 350 million,

1558
00:34:32.290 --> 00:34:33.610
and then there's 350 million plus,

1559
00:34:33.679 --> 00:34:34.668
which was the highest

1560
00:34:35.370 --> 00:34:35.949
level they

1561
00:34:36.070 --> 00:34:36.570
put up there,

1562
00:34:36.639 --> 00:34:37.760
350 million plus.

1563
00:34:37.850 --> 00:34:38.449
It cleared that,

1564
00:34:38.489 --> 00:34:38.810
it's gonna,

1565
00:34:38.889 --> 00:34:39.629
that's gonna come through.

1566
00:34:40.120 --> 00:34:42.228
But the more important thing is look at the top of this.

1567
00:34:42.399 --> 00:34:43.429
Spider-Man Brand New Day,

1568
00:34:43.679 --> 00:34:45.060
opening weekend box office,

1569
00:34:45.300 --> 00:34:46.080
parentheses,

1570
00:34:46.219 --> 00:34:47.219
higher strikes.

1571
00:34:47.429 --> 00:34:48.879
Whenever you see something like that,

1572
00:34:49.199 --> 00:34:51.260
something dramatically has changed

1573
00:34:51.600 --> 00:34:52.719
in the prediction markets.

1574
00:34:52.958 --> 00:34:54.179
Higher strikes means

1575
00:34:54.399 --> 00:34:54.780
that

1576
00:34:55.040 --> 00:34:55.520
basically,

1577
00:34:55.530 --> 00:34:56.699
they had some number

1578
00:34:56.879 --> 00:34:57.689
in the last,

1579
00:34:57.959 --> 00:34:58.610
the first time they,

1580
00:34:58.739 --> 00:34:59.370
they put this up there,

1581
00:34:59.439 --> 00:34:59.719
they're like,

1582
00:34:59.760 --> 00:35:00.080
I don't know,

1583
00:35:00.149 --> 00:35:01.540
250 million or more.

1584
00:35:02.209 --> 00:35:04.770
And it was so obvious it was gonna be more than 250 million.

1585
00:35:04.939 --> 00:35:06.899
They had to launch a new prediction market

1586
00:35:07.020 --> 00:35:08.679
to give you higher ranges

1587
00:35:08.899 --> 00:35:09.659
for these prices.

1588
00:35:09.729 --> 00:35:10.899
So whenever you see higher strikes,

1589
00:35:10.979 --> 00:35:13.060
something pretty interesting has happened in that market.

1590
00:35:13.379 --> 00:35:14.679
But 350 million,

1591
00:35:14.810 --> 00:35:15.280
even

1592
00:35:15.500 --> 00:35:18.310
their retry of getting how high this would go,

1593
00:35:18.699 --> 00:35:19.419
came up short.

1594
00:35:19.580 --> 00:35:21.560
350 million or more

1595
00:35:21.699 --> 00:35:22.540
is gonna hit there.

1596
00:35:22.620 --> 00:35:24.979
So let me give you two other places to potentially make money here.

1597
00:35:25.060 --> 00:35:25.689
These are a little bit,

1598
00:35:25.739 --> 00:35:26.159
uh,

1599
00:35:26.669 --> 00:35:26.899
You know,

1600
00:35:27.189 --> 00:35:27.270
again,

1601
00:35:27.389 --> 00:35:28.969
these aren't sure things like I think

1602
00:35:29.100 --> 00:35:29.989
that first market is.

1603
00:35:30.030 --> 00:35:31.209
It's close to a sure thing

1604
00:35:31.520 --> 00:35:32.239
as is possible,

1605
00:35:32.399 --> 00:35:33.610
especially after this first weekend

1606
00:35:33.870 --> 00:35:34.469
of information.

1607
00:35:34.550 --> 00:35:36.209
The only real thought here

1608
00:35:36.439 --> 00:35:36.889
is

1609
00:35:37.070 --> 00:35:38.250
9% now.

1610
00:35:38.550 --> 00:35:39.709
Is there opportunity cost?

1611
00:35:39.830 --> 00:35:41.110
Can you get more of a return?

1612
00:35:41.189 --> 00:35:41.310
I mean,

1613
00:35:41.389 --> 00:35:41.439
we,

1614
00:35:41.510 --> 00:35:43.929
I think that we've got 9% possibilities that are gonna happen tomorrow.

1615
00:35:44.030 --> 00:35:45.979
So you wanna hold that for 5 months for 9%.

1616
00:35:46.399 --> 00:35:46.760
You know,

1617
00:35:46.919 --> 00:35:48.320
I still think it's a good fun part of the

1618
00:35:48.320 --> 00:35:50.899
portfolio if you happen to be on Poly Market International.

1619
00:35:51.120 --> 00:35:51.239
Uh,

1620
00:35:51.280 --> 00:35:52.639
these last two are interesting as well.

1621
00:35:52.800 --> 00:35:54.219
The best week of the year,

1622
00:35:54.399 --> 00:35:55.540
box office returns.

1623
00:35:55.830 --> 00:35:56.050
Um,

1624
00:35:56.199 --> 00:35:56.669
right now,

1625
00:35:56.760 --> 00:35:57.260
it is at,

1626
00:35:57.360 --> 00:35:57.810
uh,

1627
00:35:57.840 --> 00:36:01.000
Avengers Doomsday is leading that at 70%.

1628
00:36:02.090 --> 00:36:02.219
God,

1629
00:36:02.370 --> 00:36:02.379
uh,

1630
00:36:02.830 --> 00:36:06.010
the reason why this is even a question is because

1631
00:36:06.310 --> 00:36:09.360
Avengers Doomsday is coming out around the holidays when everyone's gonna be off.

1632
00:36:09.550 --> 00:36:09.889
So,

1633
00:36:10.110 --> 00:36:10.989
can it beat,

1634
00:36:11.270 --> 00:36:11.459
uh,

1635
00:36:11.469 --> 00:36:11.989
Spider-Man?

1636
00:36:12.110 --> 00:36:12.850
Yes.

1637
00:36:13.110 --> 00:36:13.929
I still

1638
00:36:14.149 --> 00:36:16.500
don't mind Spider-Man at 30% because,

1639
00:36:17.149 --> 00:36:17.310
uh,

1640
00:36:17.379 --> 00:36:17.590
you know,

1641
00:36:17.790 --> 00:36:17.870
again,

1642
00:36:17.949 --> 00:36:20.995
Avengers Doomsday would have to have a Massive,

1643
00:36:21.245 --> 00:36:22.745
massive release.

1644
00:36:23.125 --> 00:36:24.435
It probably will.

1645
00:36:24.725 --> 00:36:26.945
It's still probably the slight favorite there,

1646
00:36:27.445 --> 00:36:27.725
but,

1647
00:36:27.804 --> 00:36:28.125
uh,

1648
00:36:28.135 --> 00:36:28.274
uh,

1649
00:36:28.354 --> 00:36:28.685
you know,

1650
00:36:28.885 --> 00:36:29.324
gosh,

1651
00:36:29.395 --> 00:36:29.844
uh,

1652
00:36:29.945 --> 00:36:29.955
I,

1653
00:36:30.084 --> 00:36:30.245
you know,

1654
00:36:30.485 --> 00:36:31.004
still a few,

1655
00:36:31.125 --> 00:36:32.604
a few cents on Spider-Man,

1656
00:36:32.645 --> 00:36:33.155
uh,

1657
00:36:33.165 --> 00:36:33.584
is not,

1658
00:36:33.594 --> 00:36:33.794
uh,

1659
00:36:33.804 --> 00:36:34.564
the worst investment.

1660
00:36:34.604 --> 00:36:35.435
And the last one is,

1661
00:36:35.455 --> 00:36:35.905
uh,

1662
00:36:36.084 --> 00:36:37.385
best weekend of the year.

1663
00:36:37.725 --> 00:36:40.475
This one was pretty low when we first recommended it.

1664
00:36:40.685 --> 00:36:42.905
It's currently at 54%.

1665
00:36:43.445 --> 00:36:43.455
Uh,

1666
00:36:43.705 --> 00:36:43.885
you know,

1667
00:36:44.004 --> 00:36:44.274
look,

1668
00:36:44.554 --> 00:36:45.754
only one movie has ever

1669
00:36:46.205 --> 00:36:47.364
cleared what Spider-Man just did.

1670
00:36:47.485 --> 00:36:47.965
One movie.

1671
00:36:48.530 --> 00:36:49.739
That was an Avengers movie.

1672
00:36:50.409 --> 00:36:51.919
And I think it did come out around the holidays.

1673
00:36:51.969 --> 00:36:52.290
Am I right?

1674
00:36:52.330 --> 00:36:53.070
I think that's true.

1675
00:36:53.370 --> 00:36:53.689
Anyway,

1676
00:36:53.889 --> 00:36:54.010
the,

1677
00:36:54.129 --> 00:36:55.689
I don't remember if it was a holiday or summer release,

1678
00:36:55.770 --> 00:36:56.129
to be honest,

1679
00:36:56.199 --> 00:36:56.510
but,

1680
00:36:56.810 --> 00:36:57.189
uh,

1681
00:36:57.570 --> 00:36:58.439
Spider-Man is still about,

1682
00:36:58.449 --> 00:36:59.810
you can basically double your money

1683
00:36:59.810 --> 00:37:02.189
on Spider-Man being the biggest opening weekend

1684
00:37:02.489 --> 00:37:03.110
and

1685
00:37:05.129 --> 00:37:06.110
It's gonna be,

1686
00:37:06.449 --> 00:37:09.639
there's only been one weekend in history that's been better than it.

1687
00:37:09.909 --> 00:37:10.689
So can Avengers,

1688
00:37:10.810 --> 00:37:11.669
can we get two

1689
00:37:11.989 --> 00:37:13.969
in the same year that have the highest ever?

1690
00:37:14.209 --> 00:37:14.449
Maybe,

1691
00:37:14.570 --> 00:37:16.169
but there hasn't been one that's competed

1692
00:37:16.169 --> 00:37:18.959
with that first Avengers movie since 2019.

1693
00:37:19.449 --> 00:37:22.090
So I think there's value here at 54%.

1694
00:37:22.560 --> 00:37:22.800
Uh,

1695
00:37:22.879 --> 00:37:23.560
I am,

1696
00:37:23.639 --> 00:37:23.879
uh,

1697
00:37:23.959 --> 00:37:24.679
I'm a fan.

1698
00:37:24.800 --> 00:37:25.229
I'm a fan,

1699
00:37:25.280 --> 00:37:25.860
frankly,

1700
00:37:26.120 --> 00:37:26.360
uh,

1701
00:37:26.479 --> 00:37:26.790
of,

1702
00:37:26.860 --> 00:37:27.639
of that one

1703
00:37:27.840 --> 00:37:28.389
as well,

1704
00:37:28.479 --> 00:37:31.199
although I won't go as big on it as I would on the,

1705
00:37:31.310 --> 00:37:31.510
uh,

1706
00:37:31.520 --> 00:37:33.239
over the entire year number,

1707
00:37:33.399 --> 00:37:34.469
the 2026 number.

1708
00:37:34.800 --> 00:37:36.040
That one seems really,

1709
00:37:36.120 --> 00:37:36.540
really,

1710
00:37:36.719 --> 00:37:37.379
really strong

1711
00:37:37.639 --> 00:37:40.479
and is in a stronger position even today than when I recommended it.

1712
00:37:40.770 --> 00:37:41.250
Uh,

1713
00:37:41.320 --> 00:37:42.070
a few days ago.

1714
00:37:42.209 --> 00:37:42.550
OK,

1715
00:37:42.729 --> 00:37:43.199
that's where we are.

1716
00:37:43.250 --> 00:37:44.270
It's one I kinda like,

1717
00:37:44.570 --> 00:37:45.560
a couple that I kinda like,

1718
00:37:45.800 --> 00:37:46.570
one that I kinda love,

1719
00:37:46.689 --> 00:37:47.250
frankly,

1720
00:37:47.449 --> 00:37:49.070
as we are talking about

1721
00:37:49.389 --> 00:37:51.169
Spider-Man and box office receipts,

1722
00:37:51.209 --> 00:37:52.070
if you happen to be

1723
00:37:52.250 --> 00:37:54.429
on Poly Market International or one of the international

1724
00:37:54.729 --> 00:37:55.330
exchanges.

1725
00:37:55.439 --> 00:37:55.580
OK,

1726
00:37:55.679 --> 00:37:56.239
I'm gonna take a break,

1727
00:37:56.360 --> 00:37:57.850
come back with your questions next.

1728
00:38:05.860 --> 00:38:10.340
We are at at Predictable show on most uh social media and on YouTube.

1729
00:38:10.739 --> 00:38:10.860
Uh,

1730
00:38:10.939 --> 00:38:12.020
we'd love that you join us there.

1731
00:38:12.100 --> 00:38:13.459
You can put your stuff in the comments.

1732
00:38:13.500 --> 00:38:15.409
We try to look for all of the comments that,

1733
00:38:15.419 --> 00:38:15.689
you know,

1734
00:38:15.899 --> 00:38:16.899
I think would be good

1735
00:38:17.100 --> 00:38:19.100
to share with the entire audience and answer

1736
00:38:19.100 --> 00:38:21.379
those questions to the widest audience possible.

1737
00:38:21.449 --> 00:38:23.780
We also do like lots of stuff on PredictableShow.com.

1738
00:38:23.850 --> 00:38:25.080
If you go to predictableShow.com,

1739
00:38:25.419 --> 00:38:25.739
first of all,

1740
00:38:25.860 --> 00:38:26.050
go there,

1741
00:38:26.100 --> 00:38:26.939
put your email address in.

1742
00:38:27.320 --> 00:38:27.449
Uh,

1743
00:38:27.530 --> 00:38:29.709
you'll get a copy of our predictable constitution,

1744
00:38:29.929 --> 00:38:33.189
which kind of like the rules of the road for trading that I use on a day to day basis

1745
00:38:33.729 --> 00:38:34.550
all the time.

1746
00:38:34.810 --> 00:38:34.969
Uh,

1747
00:38:35.050 --> 00:38:39.409
it's free if you just put your email address in at predictableshow.com.

1748
00:38:39.810 --> 00:38:40.600
In addition to that,

1749
00:38:40.729 --> 00:38:42.169
you can put comments kind of wherever.

1750
00:38:42.209 --> 00:38:44.000
We have a chat that's going on all the time,

1751
00:38:44.110 --> 00:38:45.949
lots of great stuff that comes out just from

1752
00:38:46.050 --> 00:38:46.810
the members

1753
00:38:47.050 --> 00:38:48.610
who put information out there,

1754
00:38:48.770 --> 00:38:49.649
point you to great markets.

1755
00:38:49.689 --> 00:38:51.169
It's a great community to be part of if

1756
00:38:51.169 --> 00:38:53.120
you're thinking about trading at all in these markets,

1757
00:38:53.409 --> 00:38:55.250
predictableshow.com.

1758
00:38:55.385 --> 00:38:59.294
This comes in from Christian from our uh premium subscriber chat yesterday.

1759
00:38:59.475 --> 00:39:01.425
I'd be curious how you look at and deal with

1760
00:39:01.425 --> 00:39:04.834
low volume markets and low info markets with no polling

1761
00:39:05.064 --> 00:39:05.514
or news.

1762
00:39:05.594 --> 00:39:06.104
A bunch of the,

1763
00:39:06.235 --> 00:39:07.995
the stories that we went through earlier

1764
00:39:07.995 --> 00:39:09.375
today when we were going through those markets

1765
00:39:09.675 --> 00:39:10.975
kind of fall into this category.

1766
00:39:11.915 --> 00:39:15.054
Polling is expensive these days and a lot of people don't want to pay for it.

1767
00:39:15.929 --> 00:39:16.189
Uh,

1768
00:39:16.409 --> 00:39:18.649
this happens over and over and over again.

1769
00:39:18.929 --> 00:39:20.570
We're seeing these markets now that,

1770
00:39:20.840 --> 00:39:20.969
you know,

1771
00:39:21.050 --> 00:39:22.209
1520 years ago,

1772
00:39:22.290 --> 00:39:22.409
I mean,

1773
00:39:22.489 --> 00:39:23.909
I've been doing prediction markets for about

1774
00:39:24.040 --> 00:39:24.489
10 years,

1775
00:39:24.570 --> 00:39:24.810
I guess,

1776
00:39:24.969 --> 00:39:25.040
uh,

1777
00:39:25.050 --> 00:39:25.969
2014,

1778
00:39:26.070 --> 00:39:26.949
so 12 years,

1779
00:39:27.320 --> 00:39:27.790
um,

1780
00:39:28.050 --> 00:39:28.469
and

1781
00:39:28.729 --> 00:39:29.120
there would be,

1782
00:39:29.270 --> 00:39:30.169
there'll be polling,

1783
00:39:30.330 --> 00:39:31.969
some polling of every one of these markets,

1784
00:39:32.050 --> 00:39:32.409
uh,

1785
00:39:32.570 --> 00:39:33.370
these races.

1786
00:39:33.449 --> 00:39:35.399
If it was at all expected to be close,

1787
00:39:35.649 --> 00:39:36.409
you'd see polling.

1788
00:39:36.520 --> 00:39:38.149
A lot of them now are going in

1789
00:39:38.479 --> 00:39:39.010
blind.

1790
00:39:40.060 --> 00:39:42.179
Sometimes there's a lot of different factors you can take into that.

1791
00:39:42.219 --> 00:39:43.459
You can take into account fundraising,

1792
00:39:43.540 --> 00:39:44.320
you can take into account,

1793
00:39:44.340 --> 00:39:44.639
uh,

1794
00:39:44.649 --> 00:39:45.729
fundamentals of the race.

1795
00:39:45.780 --> 00:39:46.639
You can take into account

1796
00:39:47.139 --> 00:39:47.580
voter,

1797
00:39:47.620 --> 00:39:48.050
um,

1798
00:39:48.189 --> 00:39:48.780
uh,

1799
00:39:48.790 --> 00:39:51.739
or name recognition of the candidates is a big one

1800
00:39:51.979 --> 00:39:52.580
that we look at.

1801
00:39:52.659 --> 00:39:53.139
We look at the,

1802
00:39:53.219 --> 00:39:53.500
the,

1803
00:39:53.580 --> 00:39:53.919
the

1804
00:39:54.020 --> 00:39:55.500
demographics of the race,

1805
00:39:55.899 --> 00:39:57.879
but all that is sort of art,

1806
00:39:58.300 --> 00:39:58.790
right?

1807
00:39:59.260 --> 00:39:59.610
You know,

1808
00:40:00.260 --> 00:40:01.060
this always comes down to it,

1809
00:40:01.129 --> 00:40:02.939
you can't just believe polling.

1810
00:40:03.179 --> 00:40:04.760
You can't just believe that stuff,

1811
00:40:05.459 --> 00:40:05.800
but

1812
00:40:06.100 --> 00:40:06.379
Uh,

1813
00:40:06.469 --> 00:40:06.540
you,

1814
00:40:06.669 --> 00:40:06.729
it,

1815
00:40:06.830 --> 00:40:07.489
it's a great

1816
00:40:07.790 --> 00:40:08.989
additional factor to have.

1817
00:40:09.060 --> 00:40:09.429
And it,

1818
00:40:09.590 --> 00:40:10.489
I always look for

1819
00:40:11.030 --> 00:40:12.870
several things I can check off

1820
00:40:13.270 --> 00:40:15.419
that will make me feel more and more comfortable.

1821
00:40:15.510 --> 00:40:17.090
I don't want just one indicator.

1822
00:40:17.229 --> 00:40:18.850
I want multiple indicators.

1823
00:40:19.149 --> 00:40:19.449
And

1824
00:40:19.669 --> 00:40:22.139
one of the biggest lessons you can learn by doing this is,

1825
00:40:22.389 --> 00:40:24.699
you just don't have to be in every market.

1826
00:40:25.070 --> 00:40:25.810
It's OK

1827
00:40:26.189 --> 00:40:27.030
that you look at a race and you say,

1828
00:40:27.189 --> 00:40:27.310
gosh,

1829
00:40:27.379 --> 00:40:28.070
I have a feeling about this,

1830
00:40:28.149 --> 00:40:30.429
but I don't have enough evidence to support my feeling.

1831
00:40:30.840 --> 00:40:32.040
Maybe take a marker position,

1832
00:40:32.080 --> 00:40:32.879
which is our smallest,

1833
00:40:32.949 --> 00:40:33.739
tiniest position,

1834
00:40:33.959 --> 00:40:35.239
sometimes as low as one share,

1835
00:40:35.350 --> 00:40:35.449
right?

1836
00:40:35.510 --> 00:40:36.669
Like just so you could mark it.

1837
00:40:36.919 --> 00:40:39.129
Maybe a small position if you're feeling feisty.

1838
00:40:39.379 --> 00:40:42.030
But if you don't have the information and you don't feel like

1839
00:40:42.439 --> 00:40:42.780
certain

1840
00:40:43.040 --> 00:40:43.860
about where you're going,

1841
00:40:44.659 --> 00:40:46.989
Then maybe the best idea is to just stay out of the market,

1842
00:40:47.060 --> 00:40:47.699
and that's OK.

1843
00:40:47.860 --> 00:40:49.540
There's going to be so many opportunities.

1844
00:40:49.620 --> 00:40:51.050
Tomorrow we have 5 primaries.

1845
00:40:51.340 --> 00:40:52.820
There's 12 races in each.

1846
00:40:52.899 --> 00:40:54.260
There's so much to find

1847
00:40:54.540 --> 00:40:55.459
with information.

1848
00:40:55.800 --> 00:40:57.260
You don't need to go to those positions

1849
00:40:57.399 --> 00:40:58.800
unless you have a real strong feeling about it.

1850
00:40:58.879 --> 00:40:59.110
So,

1851
00:40:59.120 --> 00:41:00.000
that's kind of where I am.

1852
00:41:00.110 --> 00:41:00.679
Thanks for the question,

1853
00:41:00.840 --> 00:41:01.120
Christian.

1854
00:41:01.239 --> 00:41:01.879
Jack asks,

1855
00:41:01.959 --> 00:41:02.479
low risk,

1856
00:41:02.560 --> 00:41:03.219
low reward,

1857
00:41:03.679 --> 00:41:04.110
high risk,

1858
00:41:04.199 --> 00:41:05.010
high reward.

1859
00:41:05.320 --> 00:41:07.159
How do we make this low-risk,

1860
00:41:07.600 --> 00:41:08.439
high reward?

1861
00:41:08.679 --> 00:41:09.729
That is

1862
00:41:10.040 --> 00:41:11.159
essentially the holy grail question,

1863
00:41:11.270 --> 00:41:11.479
right?

1864
00:41:11.840 --> 00:41:13.590
The $64,000 question.

1865
00:41:13.800 --> 00:41:14.750
It's the question that,

1866
00:41:14.760 --> 00:41:15.040
uh,

1867
00:41:15.080 --> 00:41:16.719
I would love to have a perfect answer to,

1868
00:41:16.969 --> 00:41:17.340
uh,

1869
00:41:17.360 --> 00:41:18.080
because if I had it,

1870
00:41:18.199 --> 00:41:19.600
I would be making a lot more.

1871
00:41:19.679 --> 00:41:19.949
I'd be,

1872
00:41:20.000 --> 00:41:20.739
I'd be looking like,

1873
00:41:20.750 --> 00:41:21.000
uh,

1874
00:41:21.010 --> 00:41:22.280
Scottylicious on these markets.

1875
00:41:22.370 --> 00:41:22.489
Uh,

1876
00:41:22.699 --> 00:41:22.709
yeah,

1877
00:41:22.729 --> 00:41:23.389
I'd have much,

1878
00:41:23.459 --> 00:41:24.739
much more money than I have.

1879
00:41:25.120 --> 00:41:25.439
Um,

1880
00:41:26.379 --> 00:41:26.959
I

1881
00:41:27.100 --> 00:41:29.149
will say that it's difficult to find that combo.

1882
00:41:29.659 --> 00:41:32.260
A lot of times you have to settle for either low risk,

1883
00:41:32.330 --> 00:41:32.770
low reward,

1884
00:41:32.780 --> 00:41:33.459
or high risk,

1885
00:41:33.580 --> 00:41:34.239
high reward.

1886
00:41:34.610 --> 00:41:34.810
Um,

1887
00:41:34.909 --> 00:41:36.820
but what I will say is we do look for the,

1888
00:41:36.899 --> 00:41:40.419
the Stevens Market in Michigan is an interesting example of a low-risk,

1889
00:41:40.459 --> 00:41:42.560
high reward potential situation.

1890
00:41:42.939 --> 00:41:43.320
Uh,

1891
00:41:43.580 --> 00:41:46.679
I do expect probably I'll lose a few bucks on that position.

1892
00:41:46.689 --> 00:41:47.709
We talked about it earlier,

1893
00:41:47.939 --> 00:41:49.550
buying her at like 1 cent

1894
00:41:49.939 --> 00:41:52.260
and then watching the election results come in and hoping

1895
00:41:52.260 --> 00:41:54.129
she pops to 5 or 10 or 15 or 20,

1896
00:41:54.139 --> 00:41:54.969
or who knows?

1897
00:41:55.020 --> 00:41:55.780
Maybe she even wins.

1898
00:41:56.419 --> 00:41:56.979
Um,

1899
00:41:57.219 --> 00:41:58.179
but the risk is really,

1900
00:41:58.260 --> 00:41:58.979
really low there.

1901
00:41:59.139 --> 00:41:59.219
You know,

1902
00:41:59.300 --> 00:42:00.260
if you're buying at 1 cent,

1903
00:42:00.300 --> 00:42:02.760
you get 1000 shares for $10.

1904
00:42:03.639 --> 00:42:06.209
So if you're willing to take a $10 risk and maybe turn that into

1905
00:42:06.500 --> 00:42:07.510
$30.50 dollars,

1906
00:42:07.620 --> 00:42:08.629
$100 200 dollars,

1907
00:42:08.750 --> 00:42:09.129
who knows,

1908
00:42:09.219 --> 00:42:10.649
maybe as much as $1000.

1909
00:42:11.070 --> 00:42:11.189
It,

1910
00:42:11.270 --> 00:42:13.229
it's kind of fun to try that stuff.

1911
00:42:13.350 --> 00:42:14.780
I will say most of the time,

1912
00:42:15.070 --> 00:42:18.189
you'll either wind up with a small gain or a small loss when you're playing that way.

1913
00:42:18.209 --> 00:42:19.780
It doesn't always give you the high reward,

1914
00:42:20.070 --> 00:42:21.389
but we have hit a bunch of these.

1915
00:42:21.469 --> 00:42:23.729
One of the things we did when we did that breakdown earlier

1916
00:42:23.949 --> 00:42:26.199
of our kind of record across those categories.

1917
00:42:27.030 --> 00:42:28.699
As I was analyzing that information,

1918
00:42:28.939 --> 00:42:29.209
I was like,

1919
00:42:29.300 --> 00:42:29.379
well,

1920
00:42:29.419 --> 00:42:31.060
how are we doing on these long shot stuff?

1921
00:42:31.129 --> 00:42:31.260
And when,

1922
00:42:31.350 --> 00:42:31.820
when we say,

1923
00:42:31.899 --> 00:42:32.290
hey,

1924
00:42:32.620 --> 00:42:32.860
you know,

1925
00:42:32.969 --> 00:42:33.419
we're buying,

1926
00:42:33.489 --> 00:42:34.320
we're buying in at

1927
00:42:34.580 --> 00:42:36.679
between 0 and 10% chance to win.

1928
00:42:37.139 --> 00:42:37.580
Um,

1929
00:42:37.780 --> 00:42:38.300
and,

1930
00:42:38.379 --> 00:42:38.969
uh,

1931
00:42:38.979 --> 00:42:39.100
we,

1932
00:42:39.179 --> 00:42:40.419
I was looking at those positions,

1933
00:42:40.459 --> 00:42:42.000
which you'd expect to hit

1934
00:42:42.649 --> 00:42:44.260
around 5% of those.

1935
00:42:44.810 --> 00:42:45.370
So far,

1936
00:42:45.489 --> 00:42:46.250
we're around,

1937
00:42:46.290 --> 00:42:48.969
uh we were at 25% when I ran the analysis.

1938
00:42:49.090 --> 00:42:52.189
I did miss one by 0.8% in South Dakota,

1939
00:42:52.489 --> 00:42:52.679
uh,

1940
00:42:52.689 --> 00:42:53.050
last time.

1941
00:42:53.209 --> 00:42:54.280
So I think we're down to like 22,

1942
00:42:54.330 --> 00:42:55.030
23%,

1943
00:42:55.050 --> 00:42:56.189
somewhere in that vicinity.

1944
00:42:56.489 --> 00:42:57.169
The bottom line is we're,

1945
00:42:57.250 --> 00:43:00.929
we're outperforming those long on those long shots by a significant amount.

1946
00:43:01.409 --> 00:43:04.780
So this Haley Stevens one is what I'm gonna try probably tomorrow,

1947
00:43:05.090 --> 00:43:05.270
uh,

1948
00:43:05.280 --> 00:43:08.050
and buy some shares on her and just see what happens.

1949
00:43:08.179 --> 00:43:09.530
Maybe she has a little bit of pop.

1950
00:43:09.610 --> 00:43:11.199
I would love to see that because at this point,

1951
00:43:11.250 --> 00:43:12.610
there's no value in going the opposite way.

1952
00:43:12.709 --> 00:43:14.459
So that's an example of low-risk,

1953
00:43:14.810 --> 00:43:15.550
higher reward.

1954
00:43:15.929 --> 00:43:16.040
Uh,

1955
00:43:16.050 --> 00:43:16.570
thanks for the question,

1956
00:43:16.689 --> 00:43:16.889
Jack.

1957
00:43:16.929 --> 00:43:17.850
And Evan writes,

1958
00:43:17.929 --> 00:43:19.570
I personally do not understand why Darlene

1959
00:43:19.570 --> 00:43:21.189
Graham is considered such a huge favorite,

1960
00:43:21.250 --> 00:43:22.189
giving her mediocre poll.

1961
00:43:22.715 --> 00:43:24.264
Do you have a no position on her?

1962
00:43:24.544 --> 00:43:25.864
I kind of discussed it a little bit earlier,

1963
00:43:25.985 --> 00:43:26.054
uh,

1964
00:43:26.135 --> 00:43:26.334
Evan,

1965
00:43:26.385 --> 00:43:27.364
but to add on to this,

1966
00:43:27.665 --> 00:43:28.084
um,

1967
00:43:28.344 --> 00:43:29.625
I don't have a no position on her.

1968
00:43:29.705 --> 00:43:30.175
I have a,

1969
00:43:30.264 --> 00:43:30.905
a small,

1970
00:43:30.985 --> 00:43:31.524
I think,

1971
00:43:31.864 --> 00:43:32.635
uh,

1972
00:43:32.905 --> 00:43:34.225
maybe medium position,

1973
00:43:34.425 --> 00:43:34.524
uh,

1974
00:43:34.544 --> 00:43:37.784
and yes on her because I do think she gets through the runoff,

1975
00:43:37.985 --> 00:43:38.935
and when she gets to the runoff,

1976
00:43:38.995 --> 00:43:39.645
I expect

1977
00:43:39.864 --> 00:43:40.965
Trump to be a factor

1978
00:43:41.185 --> 00:43:42.544
in loudly saying,

1979
00:43:42.705 --> 00:43:43.245
hey,

1980
00:43:44.209 --> 00:43:44.550
Uh,

1981
00:43:44.610 --> 00:43:45.810
I

1982
00:43:46.169 --> 00:43:47.030
do not want

1983
00:43:47.290 --> 00:43:48.570
Ralph Norman as the opponent.

1984
00:43:48.689 --> 00:43:49.830
It becomes more,

1985
00:43:50.360 --> 00:43:50.520
uh,

1986
00:43:50.570 --> 00:43:52.729
difficult if Fry is her opponent.

1987
00:43:52.800 --> 00:43:53.669
If it's Fry

1988
00:43:53.959 --> 00:43:54.889
versus Graham,

1989
00:43:55.010 --> 00:43:55.649
I don't

1990
00:43:55.879 --> 00:43:57.149
he might keep the endorsement.

1991
00:43:57.639 --> 00:44:00.429
But he may do the double endorsement thing or he may do the,

1992
00:44:00.510 --> 00:44:01.889
I'm gonna stay quiet thing,

1993
00:44:01.899 --> 00:44:02.810
and that's not gonna help,

1994
00:44:03.310 --> 00:44:03.689
uh,

1995
00:44:03.709 --> 00:44:04.750
Darlene Graham because look,

1996
00:44:05.070 --> 00:44:06.610
Graham is there because of name recognition.

1997
00:44:06.699 --> 00:44:07.899
We don't know anything about her really.

1998
00:44:08.229 --> 00:44:08.649
She has,

1999
00:44:08.709 --> 00:44:08.719
uh,

2000
00:44:08.949 --> 00:44:09.290
you know,

2001
00:44:09.709 --> 00:44:11.110
she was helping blind people,

2002
00:44:11.149 --> 00:44:11.810
which is wonderful.

2003
00:44:12.350 --> 00:44:13.229
Does that make you a senator?

2004
00:44:13.290 --> 00:44:13.929
I don't know.

2005
00:44:14.229 --> 00:44:14.389
Uh,

2006
00:44:14.550 --> 00:44:14.669
she,

2007
00:44:14.750 --> 00:44:16.620
does she share all the positions of Lindsey Graham?

2008
00:44:16.629 --> 00:44:18.590
I frankly didn't love all the positions of Lindsey Graham,

2009
00:44:18.659 --> 00:44:20.050
but it's probably would be enough

2010
00:44:20.260 --> 00:44:21.989
with the Trump endorsement for her to win the state.

2011
00:44:22.300 --> 00:44:23.340
Especially against Norman.

2012
00:44:23.419 --> 00:44:24.139
If Norman's in there,

2013
00:44:24.219 --> 00:44:27.610
I'm very skeptical about his chance to get over 50% in that race.

2014
00:44:27.979 --> 00:44:28.379
So I,

2015
00:44:28.459 --> 00:44:28.780
I,

2016
00:44:28.899 --> 00:44:31.219
I am holding off of growing any position

2017
00:44:31.379 --> 00:44:32.899
that I have on Darlene Graham

2018
00:44:33.219 --> 00:44:34.219
until I see this debate tonight.

2019
00:44:34.300 --> 00:44:35.340
I wanna see how she performs.

2020
00:44:35.419 --> 00:44:36.610
If she performs well,

2021
00:44:36.899 --> 00:44:38.090
I'm pretty bullish on Graham.

2022
00:44:38.250 --> 00:44:38.500
Uh,

2023
00:44:38.620 --> 00:44:39.959
so we will see how

2024
00:44:40.100 --> 00:44:40.719
that goes.

2025
00:44:41.020 --> 00:44:41.090
Uh,

2026
00:44:41.100 --> 00:44:42.050
that's all I have time for.

2027
00:44:42.179 --> 00:44:42.260
Uh,

2028
00:44:42.419 --> 00:44:42.429
although,

2029
00:44:42.439 --> 00:44:43.260
I will,

2030
00:44:43.330 --> 00:44:43.649
uh,

2031
00:44:43.659 --> 00:44:45.459
remind you one more time to go to predictableShow.com.

2032
00:44:45.580 --> 00:44:46.479
We would love for you to be there.

2033
00:44:47.120 --> 00:44:49.459
I would love for you to be part of the premium tier

2034
00:44:49.760 --> 00:44:51.300
of predictableShow.com.

2035
00:44:51.479 --> 00:44:51.790
Why?

2036
00:44:51.919 --> 00:44:52.300
Well,

2037
00:44:52.560 --> 00:44:53.879
you're gonna get every single pick,

2038
00:44:53.959 --> 00:44:55.000
every single position

2039
00:44:55.280 --> 00:44:56.040
that I have

2040
00:44:56.199 --> 00:44:57.399
all coming out on Friday,

2041
00:44:57.560 --> 00:44:58.879
sort of a record release party.

2042
00:44:59.189 --> 00:44:59.280
Uh,

2043
00:44:59.389 --> 00:44:59.790
we're gonna get on,

2044
00:44:59.840 --> 00:45:00.750
we're gonna do a live stream,

2045
00:45:00.870 --> 00:45:01.199
talk to you,

2046
00:45:01.280 --> 00:45:03.080
we'll answer your questions about my picks.

2047
00:45:03.270 --> 00:45:04.719
You can make fun of my terrible ones.

2048
00:45:04.800 --> 00:45:05.620
There are a few.

2049
00:45:05.919 --> 00:45:06.479
I thought about like,

2050
00:45:06.560 --> 00:45:08.149
can I just delete these and not put these in?

2051
00:45:08.399 --> 00:45:08.780
No,

2052
00:45:08.919 --> 00:45:11.060
I'm showing you all of the warts.

2053
00:45:11.350 --> 00:45:11.479
Uh,

2054
00:45:11.560 --> 00:45:12.870
there are a few in there that I'm like,

2055
00:45:12.959 --> 00:45:13.159
gosh,

2056
00:45:13.320 --> 00:45:14.270
why did I even do that?

2057
00:45:14.280 --> 00:45:14.520
I don't,

2058
00:45:14.919 --> 00:45:15.520
what an idiot.

2059
00:45:15.959 --> 00:45:16.500
Those are there.

2060
00:45:16.800 --> 00:45:19.439
Lots of good ones though as well that I think you'll be able to uh

2061
00:45:19.439 --> 00:45:22.080
look at and still have plenty of room to run on a lot of them.

2062
00:45:22.360 --> 00:45:22.629
Um,

2063
00:45:22.719 --> 00:45:24.280
some of them have already kind of resolved and

2064
00:45:24.280 --> 00:45:25.820
most of the profits have been taken away.

2065
00:45:26.239 --> 00:45:26.590
Some of them though,

2066
00:45:26.679 --> 00:45:28.520
there are real opportunities for you to jump in.

2067
00:45:28.810 --> 00:45:29.209
And they're,

2068
00:45:29.290 --> 00:45:29.449
you know,

2069
00:45:29.649 --> 00:45:31.239
ones that go till the end of the year,

2070
00:45:31.370 --> 00:45:31.479
uh,

2071
00:45:31.530 --> 00:45:31.889
most of them,

2072
00:45:31.959 --> 00:45:33.409
there's a few that are even 2028,

2073
00:45:33.530 --> 00:45:33.770
uh,

2074
00:45:33.889 --> 00:45:34.050
you know,

2075
00:45:34.370 --> 00:45:35.679
presidential stuff that I have,

2076
00:45:35.729 --> 00:45:37.330
which is kind of interesting to talk about.

2077
00:45:37.689 --> 00:45:37.969
So,

2078
00:45:38.290 --> 00:45:39.360
lots of interesting stuff.

2079
00:45:39.590 --> 00:45:40.229
Just go there,

2080
00:45:40.409 --> 00:45:42.080
get the premium tier subscription,

2081
00:45:42.090 --> 00:45:45.149
and you will get access to every single pick that I have

2082
00:45:45.290 --> 00:45:46.090
in an updated way.

2083
00:45:46.445 --> 00:45:48.044
Over the time that you're a member.

2084
00:45:48.205 --> 00:45:49.084
So as these things update,

2085
00:45:49.165 --> 00:45:49.804
you'll be able to say,

2086
00:45:49.844 --> 00:45:50.165
hey,

2087
00:45:50.364 --> 00:45:50.925
I love that pick.

2088
00:45:50.965 --> 00:45:52.215
I'm gonna go with Stu on that one,

2089
00:45:52.445 --> 00:45:52.794
or say,

2090
00:45:52.864 --> 00:45:53.004
hey,

2091
00:45:53.084 --> 00:45:54.034
that one's really stupid.

2092
00:45:54.084 --> 00:45:54.524
He's a moron.

2093
00:45:54.594 --> 00:45:55.844
I'm gonna make fun of him in the live chat.

2094
00:45:56.044 --> 00:45:57.165
Whatever you wanna do,

2095
00:45:57.324 --> 00:46:00.445
we'd love to have you at predictableshow.com as part of the premium members.

2096
00:46:00.514 --> 00:46:02.465
There's been a ton of you that have joined so far.

2097
00:46:02.564 --> 00:46:03.004
Thanks so much,

2098
00:46:03.074 --> 00:46:03.584
by the way,

2099
00:46:03.875 --> 00:46:03.995
uh,

2100
00:46:04.125 --> 00:46:05.915
because this is a new thing that we just launched.

2101
00:46:06.205 --> 00:46:06.514
We're really,

2102
00:46:06.564 --> 00:46:07.125
really excited.

2103
00:46:07.155 --> 00:46:09.925
It has us rising up the charts on the sub-stack charts and all of that.

2104
00:46:10.530 --> 00:46:12.409
So thanks so much for being part of the team.

2105
00:46:12.530 --> 00:46:13.669
I do think it's gonna be

2106
00:46:13.929 --> 00:46:14.810
uh money well spent.

2107
00:46:14.889 --> 00:46:15.850
It should pay for itself,

2108
00:46:15.929 --> 00:46:16.320
I think,

2109
00:46:16.409 --> 00:46:16.679
uh,

2110
00:46:16.750 --> 00:46:17.110
at least,

2111
00:46:17.129 --> 00:46:17.530
uh,

2112
00:46:17.540 --> 00:46:19.540
if things continue to go as well as they've gone so far.

2113
00:46:19.649 --> 00:46:19.949
So,

2114
00:46:20.090 --> 00:46:22.830
thanks so much for joining us and check us out on YouTube,

2115
00:46:23.090 --> 00:46:24.290
on podcast as well.

2116
00:46:24.370 --> 00:46:26.590
We're available everywhere you are.

2117
00:46:27.169 --> 00:46:28.669
So that's all I have for you tonight.

2118
00:46:28.800 --> 00:46:29.570
Thanks so much for joining us.

2119
00:46:29.639 --> 00:46:30.090
We'll see you tomorrow.